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 Post subject: March 9th Monday 2009
PostPosted: Mon Mar 09, 2009 9:39 pm 
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Today's trades that were posted in real-time in #FuturesTrades chat room via my IRC user name NihabaAshi are archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=20&t=125

My Trading Performance: +7.50 Emini ES points

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For Dow, another 12-year low
S&P also finishes at lowest level in more than a decade as Wall Street resumes its retreat on economic worries.
By Alexandra Twin, CNNMoney.com senior writer
Last Updated: March 9, 2009: 6:18 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Stocks tumbled Monday, with the Dow and S&P 500 ending at fresh 12-year lows, as Merck's $41 billion purchase of Schering-Plough failed to distract investors from worries about the economy.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) lost 80 points, or 1.2%, to end at 6,547.05, its lowest point since April 15, 1997.

The S&P 500 (SPX) index lost nearly 7 points or 1%, to end at 676.53, its lowest point since Sept. 12, 1996.

The Nasdaq composite (COMP) lost 25 points or 2%, to end at 1,268.64, its lowest point since Oct. 9, 2002.

"We're seeing more of the same," said John Buckingham, chief investment officer at Al Frank Asset Management. "With an absence of good news, the path of least resistance is down."

Yet, with the Dow and S&P 500 both down over 25% year to date, and investor sentiment at or near record lows, a short, sharp rally could be in the works, he said.

"To the extent that you get some piece of good news, you could see a big rally," Buckingham said. "But right now every rally attempt is being met with selling."

Since closing at its all-time high of 14,164.53 on Oct. 9, 2007, the Dow has lost nearly 54%. The S&P 500, which also hit its high of 1565.15 on Oct. 9 has lost around 57%.

"Valuations are reasonably attractive outside of financials, but most investors are in defensive mode," said Thomas Nyheim, portfolio manager at Christiana Bank & Trust Company. "They've seen too many losses and are sitting on the sidelines."

Nyheim said stocks aren't likely to make a bigger move up until later in the year. In the short term, investors will be keeping an eye on the fluctuations in the credit markets, and the weekly and monthly employment figures.

Stocks mustered gains Friday - at the end of a rough week - with the Dow and S&P 500 bouncing off 12-year lows following a bleak February jobs report.

On Tuesday morning, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke speaks at the Council on Foreign Relations in Washington, D.C. about financial reforms to handle risk in the economy.

In addition, the government will release a report on January wholesale inventories.

Drugmaker Merger: Dow component Merck (MRK, Fortune 500) said it's buying Schering-Plough (SGP, Fortune 500) in a $41.1 billion cash-and-stock deal that is aimed at helping the company better compete with pharmaceutical industry leader Pfizer. Merck shares slipped 7.7% and Schering shares rallied over 14%.

Banks: A variety of bank shares bounced back, with Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500) leading the way, rising over 19%. Other gainers included Wells Fargo (WFC, Fortune 500) and US Bancorp (DEL). The KBW Bank (BKX) index added 5.3%.

Over the weekend, reports in Fortune and other publications named some of the companies that benefited from the government's multi-billion bailout of insurer American International Group (AIG, Fortune 500).

The counterparties to billions in credit default swaps included U.S. based firm Goldman Sachs (GS, Fortune 500) as well as European firms Deutsche Bank (DB), UBS (UBS) and Société Générale among others.

Other movers: Some of the economically-sensitive stocks that have gotten pummeled lately bounced back, including Dow components Alcoa (AA, Fortune 500), Caterpillar (CAT, Fortune 500), General Motors (GM, Fortune 500) and General Electric (GE, Fortune 500).

GE rallied after it said it was selling bonds guaranteed by the U.S. government.

But other Dow components slumped, including DuPont (DD, Fortune 500), AT&T (T, Fortune 500), Procter & Gamble (PG, Fortune 500), Hewlett-Packard (HPQ, Fortune 500) and IBM (IBM, Fortune 500).

StemCells (STEM) and Geron (GERN), two biotechs that engage in stem cell research, rallied Monday after President Obama reversed a Bush-era policy that limited federal aid for stem cell research.

Market breadth was negative. On the New York Stock Exchange, losers beat winners seven to three on volume of 1.56 billion shares. On the Nasdaq, decliners topped advancers by more than two to one on volume of 2.08 billion shares.

Also in play: Comments from influential investor Warren Buffett that the economy has fallen off a cliff, but that it will recover.

Bonds: Treasury prices rose, lowering the yield on the benchmark 10-year note to 2.91% from 2.87% Friday. Treasury prices and yields move in opposite directions.

Lending rates tightened. The 3-month Libor rate rose to 1.31% from 1.29% Friday, while the overnight Libor rate rose to 0.33% from 0.32% Friday, according to Bloomberg.com. Libor is a bank-to-bank lending rate.

Other markets: In global trading, Asian markets ended lower and European markets ended mixed.

In currency trading, the dollar rose versus the euro and the yen.

U.S. light crude oil for April delivery rose $1.55 to settle at $47.07 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

COMEX gold for April delivery fell $24.70 to settle at $918 an ounce.

Yahoo! Finance

4:20 pm : Despite a rebound by financial stocks and a batch of merger news, the stock market was unable to put together a sustainable advance. Stocks finished with a broad-based loss, a bit above session lows.

Uncertainty in foreign indices fueled early losses in the headline indices. Financials were the focal point of the weakness, falling to a loss of 2.2%. The drop was short-lived, though. Financials rallied to a gain of 5.3%, but finished with a gain of 2.5%.

Though financials helped the broader market move into positive territory, the stock market was unable to break above the prior session's high and began trending lower to finish in the red.

Billionaire and famed value investor Warren Buffett seemed unsure about the short-term direction of the economy and the stock market during a CNBC interview, but remains confident in the long-term potential of the U.S.

Buffett suggested that Wells Fargo (WFC 9.97, +1.36), which is one of his holdings, will emerge from current doldrums with greater earnings power than ever. Shares of WFC provided leadership to the financial sector.

There have been no new tangible developments regarding solutions for the troubles of banks and financial companies, but traders remain mindful that congress is expected to hold meetings this week regarding mark-to-market accounting rules. Treasury will unveil further details regarding its plan to handle banks' toxic assets in coming weeks, according to Reuters.

Less than two months after Pfizer (PFE 12.63, -0.10) announced it will acquire Wyeth (WYE 40.76, -0.07) for nearly $68 billion in cash and stock, Merck (MRK 20.99, -1.75) and Schering-Plough (SGP 20.10, +2.47) announced they will merge their companies. The consolidation among major pharmaceutical companies comes as they look to fatten product pipelines and fend off generic competition.

Merck is proposing to pay Schering-Plough shareholders 0.5767 shares of MRK and $10.50 in cash for each share of SGP. Based on MRK's closing price last week, the deal is valued at $41.1 billion, or $23.61 per share of SGP.

Merck's offer hasn't altered its expectations for 2009. The company reaffirmed its earnings forecast, which ranges from $3.15 to $3.30 per share. Wall Street expects the company to earn $3.26 per share.

Aetna (AET 20.42, +0.20) announced it intends to reaffirm its 2009 guidance, which calls for earnings from $3.85 to $3.95 per share. The consensus estimate is pegged at $3.85 per share.

Meanwhile, reports indicate merger talks between Genentech (DNA 92.63, +1.77) and Roche are progressing toward a deal. As of this writing, Roche is expected to pay $95 for each share of Genentech.

Merger news didn't stop there, though. CNBC reported that Dow Chemical (DOW 6.32, -0.79) has agreed to pay $78 in cash for each share of Rohm & Haas (ROH 74.91, +11.11). However, subsequent reports indicated the two companies have not yet reached a deal, and trial proceedings are set for Tuesday morning. (Note: shares of both companies remain halted; the price quotes reflect the change in price prior to being halted)

Despite what would ordinarily be considered positive catalysts, neither the health care sector (-0.9%), the materials sector (-1.1%), nor the broader market celebrated the announcements.

Beyond financials, energy was the only other sector to close the session with a gain. Energy stocks advanced just 0.5%, largely due to a 3.5% gain in crude oil prices. Crude gained 3.5% to close at $47.10 per barrel amid speculation OPEC will further slash output when it meets March 15.DJ30 -79.89 NASDAQ -25.21 NQ100 -2.0% R2K -2.2% SP400 -0.9% SP500 -6.85 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 752/2.06 bln/1941 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 888/1.56 bln/2207

3:30 pm : April crude oil rallied in the morning partially due to speculation that OPEC will once again slash output when it meets in Vienna on March 15. The April contracts finished 3.5% higher at $47.10 per barrel.

Natural gas closed 2.0% lower at $3.87 per contract; natural gas futures are sitting at multi-year lows.

April gold futures contracts closed lower by 2.7% at $917.50 per ounce after significant selling pressure in the morning trade.

May silver saw similar selling pressure during the session. The May futures contracts traded lower by 3.0% to close at $12.94 per ounce.DJ30 -88.33 NASDAQ -24.99 SP500 -9.57 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 771/1.7 bln/1939 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 820/1.2 bln/2257

3:00 pm : Industrial outfits Caterpillar (CAT 24.18, +0.95), Boeing (BA 31.00, +0.90), and General Electric (GE 7.54, +0.48) are providing leadership to the Dow.

McDonald's (MCD 52.27, +0.15) is also showing strength. Its gains, though modest, follow news that the company's global comparable sales increased 1.4% in February. U.S. comparable sales increased 2.8% during February.

Still, the influence of McDonald's and the industrial heavyweights is being limited due to weakness in IBM (IBM 84.18, -1.63), Merck (MRK 20.69, -2.05), and Hewlett-Packard (HPQ 25.81, -1.09).DJ30 -40.70 NASDAQ -17.45 SP500 -2.84 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 875/1.51 bln/1819 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 955/1.05 bln/2120

2:30 pm : CNBC reports that Dow Chemical (DOW, halted) and Rohm & Haas (ROH, halted) have reached a deal in which Dow will pay $78 per share of ROH. That is the original offer price, which had come under contention as Dow faced tightening credit conditions and lost partnerships.

According to the report, Haas family trusts and Paulson & Co. will take $2.5 billion in preferred equity, as part of the deal. Dow has the option to issue $500 million in equity at the closing of the deal.

However, Dow Jones recently reported that Rohm & Haas stated that there is no settlement yet.DJ30 -48.75 NASDAQ -17.35 SP500 -2.84 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 899/1.37 bln/1769 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 983/957 mln/2078

1:55 pm : The major indices remain in negative territory, though they have made modest gains from session lows.

Market breadth is negative, with decliners outpacing advancers by 2-to-1 on the NYSE and by 13-to-7 on the Nasdaq.DJ30 -43.49 NASDAQ -14.84 SP500 -2.25 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 920/1.21 bln/1715 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1051/846 mln/1998

1:30 pm : Financial stocks (+2.5%) and energy stocks (+1.1%) are the only two sectors in the S&P 500 still trading with solid gains. The industrial sector recently poked its nose into positive ground, but it is up just 0.1%.

Telecom is currently the worst performing sector. Telecom stocks are down 3.0% with weakness concentrated in integrated players AT&T (T 21.93, -0.65) and Verizon (VZ 26.21, -1.07). Shares of the two telecom giants had been among the few strong performers seen in the stock market during recent sessions. DJ30 -64.44 NASDAQ -17.19 SP500 -4.30 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 882/1.14 bln/1730 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 953/792 mln/2081

1:05 pm : Stocks began the session with widespread losses, mirroring the declines registered in overseas markets.

Early weakness largely hinged on continued concerns about the global financial system. Japan's top lenders, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (MTU 3.76, -0.29) and Mizuho Financial (MFG 3.38, -0.10) both showed weakness in the week's first trading session. Meanwhile, Britain's Lloyds (LYG 2.39, +0.04) tumbled on foreign exchanges after the bank devised plans to insure assets by giving the government up to 77% of the company. HSBC (HBC 24.11, -1.39) sank ahead of its previously announced rights offering.

U.S. traders sent the financial sector more than 2% lower in the first few minutes of trading. News that Capital One Financial (COF 8.83, +0.52) is opting to slash its dividend did little to bolster confidence in the sector. The company plans to pay a quarterly dividend of $0.05 per share, down from $0.375 per share.

With financials leading the broader market lower, it appeared stocks would test the multiyear lows set in the prior session. However, financials rebounded and helped the broader market pare its losses. Financial stocks are now up 3.7% as diversified banks (+15.5%) and other financial services companies (+7.0%) provide leadership.

Though financials are holding on to their gains, the major indices have fallen back under renewed selling pressure.

Investors were given a little bit of hope that the problems plaguing financial stocks will soon be more directly addressed when Reuters reported the Treasury will unveil in coming weeks further details regarding its plan to handle toxic assets.

The broader market is showing little reaction to news that Merck (MRK 20.42, -2.32) and Schering-Plough (SGP 20.20, +2.57) are merging in a cash and stock valued at $41.1 billion. Schering-Plough shareholders will receive 0.5767 shares of MRK and $10.50 in cash for each share of SGP. Based on MRK's closing price last week, SGP is being priced at $23.61 per share. Merck also reaffirmed an in-line earnings outlook for 2009.

The announcement comes not long after Pfizer (PFE 12.61, -0.12) announced it will acquire Wyeth (WYE 40.72, -0.11) for nearly $68 billion in cash and stock. News of further consolidation in the health care sector, which is the largest in the S&P 500 by market weight, is providing little support to health care stocks (-1.1%) and the broader market.

Billionaire and famed value investor Warren Buffett did little to instill confidence that economic and market conditions will make a quick turnaround during a CNBC interview, though he remains confident in the long-term potential of the U.S.DJ30 -57.75 NASDAQ -13.27 SP500 -2.32 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 934/1.05 bln/1654 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1053/736 mln/1954

12:30 pm : The major indices have pulled up a bit, giving the Dow and S&P 500 solid gains. The Nasdaq, however, is still fighting to make its way back into the green.

Mid-cap stocks are outperforming the major indices. The S&P 400 mid-cap is currently up 0.6%, thanks to leadership from Quanta Services (PWR 19.28, +1.36) and Pride International (PDE 17.24, +1.05). Pride's strength reflects that of Haliburton (HAL 16.23, +1.11) and Transocean (RIG 51.65, +0.54), which were both upgraded by some of Wall Street's analysts.

Small-cap stocks are lagging the major indices. The Russell 2000 small-cap stock index is currently down 0.5%.DJ30 +6.21 NASDAQ -2.97 SP500 +2.88 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1067/941 mln/1472 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1278/661 mln/1739

12:00 pm : Trading has turned a bit choppy as participants gauge whether the stock market will turn upward or downward from the neutral line.

Despite the lack of clear direction in the broader market, energy stocks (+2.0%) and financial stocks (+2.9%) continue to trade with impressive gains.

Energy's advance is largely rooted in higher oil prices, which are currently up 4.1% to $47.40 per share. The rise in crude oil futures prices comes amid speculation that OPEC will further reduce output at its next meeting, which is currently scheduled for mid-March.

Financial stocks initially traded with marked weakness, but have since garnered support from buyers grabbing shares of beaten down banks and financial services companies. Reuters reports that the Treasury plans to announce details on its toxic asset/bad bank plan in coming weeks.

Health care stocks are lagging the broader market, however. Health care is down 0.5% despite news that Merck (MRK 20.32, -2.42) is acquiring Schering-Plough (SGP 20.17, +2.54) for some $41 billion in cash and stock. News of consolidation within the largest sector by market weight would ordinarily provide a lift to the broader market, but general uncertainty among investors is restraining such a reaction.DJ30 -9.88 NASDAQ -6.30 SP500 +1.40 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1005/861 mln/1505 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1150/605 mln/1842

11:30 am : The Dow and Nasdaq are showing modest losses, while the broader S&P 500 is moving along the unchanged mark. Analysts from Barclays say their new base case projection is for the S&P 500 to fall to the 640 level, which was their original stress case scenario for the stock market.

Exxon Mobil (XOM 64.90, +0.87) and General Electric (GE 7.49, +0.43) are both providing leadership to the S&P 500. Shares of XOM were actually downgraded by analysts from Merrill Lynch. Meanwhile, GE announced it plans to sell bonds from its capital arm through the government's Temporary Liquidity Guarantee Program. DJ30 -7.01 NASDAQ -2.14 SP500 +2.00 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1079/711 mln/1372 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1210/507 mln/1749

11:00 am : Stocks have pulled back from their morning highs, and the Nasdaq is now in negative territory. The Nasdaq had outpaced its counterparts as stocks moved into the green, but a pullback by large-cap tech stocks has undercut its relative strength.

Google (GOOG 297.25, -11.32) and Oracle (ORCL 14.30, -0.17) are primary laggards in the Nasdaq. Oracle's shares are down for the ninth straight session. DJ30 +0.87 NASDAQ -1.10 SP500 +2.00 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1146/581 mln/1261 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1229/425 mln/1679

10:30 am : In the early going, financials were down more than 2% and underpinned the stock market's weakness. Now, financials are up 3.4% and at the center of the stock market's strength.

All 10 sectors began the session in the red. Consumer staples (-0.3%), utilities (-0.7%), and telecom (-0.9%) stocks are now the only sectors still trading with losses.DJ30 +39.98 NASDAQ +12.83 SP500 +7.82 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1317/412 mln/1017 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1474/317 mln/1408

10:00 am : Stocks reversed early losses to trade with a solid gain. The move, however, has come under pressure, sending the stock market back toward the neutral line.

Commodities are showing mixed results. The CRB Commodity Index is currently down 0.3%.

Crude oil futures are up more than 4%, pricing oil at $47.35 per barrel. Crude prices had been under pressure heading into pit trading.

Natural gas contracts for April delivery are being priced at $3.89 each, down roughly 1.3%.

Metals are showing a mixed performance as April gold contracts price the yellow metal 0.5% lower at $938.60 per ounce, but contracts for May delivery of silver are priced fractionally higher at $13.35 per ounce.

Early movers: Trading up: STEM +52.2%, CYTX +29.9%, SGY +24.3%, GERN +20.9%, SGP +12.7%, AOB +9.1%, BAC +8.9%. Trading down: TWC -58%, AFL -12.4%, FSYS -9.9%, MRK -9.7%, HBC -9.2%, BCS -9.1%.DJ30 +23.37 NASDAQ +09.14 SP500 +2.76 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1225/260 mln/1035 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1428/200 mln/1414

09:45 am : Stocks began the session by threatening to break to new multiyear lows, but quickly turned upward to pare losses. The move was rebuffed as the S&P 500 looked to advance into positive territory.

Financials are currently trading 1.2% lower, worse than any other sector. JPMorgan Chase (JPM 15.33, -0.60) and Goldman Sachs (GS 74.00, -1.65) are leading the sector's losses.

Capital One Financial (COF 8.14, -0.17) is also trading lower. The company is the latest financial outfit to slash its dividend. The company's most recent quarterly dividend stood at $0.375 per share, but will fall to just $0.05 per share.DJ30 -30.11 NASDAQ +3.10 SP500 -1.38 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 859/114 mln/1231 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 837/109 mln/1864

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -8.70. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -6.30. Stock futures suggest a downward start is in order for the major indices. The rather negative tone is an extension of the sullen mood that has pervaded the stock market and caused the S&P 500 to finish lower in 12 of the last 15 sessions. Overall news flow is rather slow this morning, so investors will have the chance to consider whether broader conditions warrant the stock market's lowly levels; many market pundits consider near-term conditions oversold since stocks have lost some 18% in the last three weeks.

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -6.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -4.00. Overall news flow is rather slow this morning; there are no economic reports scheduled for release today and there are no Fed or Treasury speakers issuing remarks. Billionaire and famed value investor Warren Buffett continues to partake in an extended interview with CNBC. Though Buffett remains confident that U.S. economic health will be restored in the long run, he lacked conviction about a short-term turnaround. Stock futures continue pointing toward a lower start for the session.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -5.60. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -2.80. Foreign markets continue to show signs of weakness. Britain's FTSE is off by 1.3%. Financial stocks are trading with weakness as reports indicate the UK government is increasing its stake in Lloyds Banking Group (LYG). The government could hold up to 77% of the company. Shares of HSBC (HBC) are also under pressure as the company's previously announced massive rights offering approaches... France's CAC is down by 1.7%, where declining issues outnumber advancers by 4-to-1. Primary laggards include Total (TOT) and AXA (AXA)... German's DAX is down 1.2%. Deutsche Bank (DB) is showing strength, but its leadership is being challenged by weakness in Allianz (AZ), Deutsche Telekom, and Muenchener Rueckver... In Asia, Japan's Nikkei fell 1.2%. The downward move pushes the Nikkei to its lowest level in 26 years. Takeda Pharmaceutical, Japan's largest drugmaker, dropped after U.S. regulators said they need more data before approving one of the company's key drug candidates. Electronic equipment outfit Kyocera (KYO) showed strength, though its strength was limited amid the session's broad-based losses... Hong Kong's Hang Sang fell a sharp 4.8%. HSBC was a primary laggard. China Construction Bank also traded with weakness. However, Dow Jones reports Bank of America (BAC) is not in talks to sell more shares of the Chinese bank.

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -4.90. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +1.80. S&P 500 stock futures currently lag fair value, suggesting a downward bias ahead of the opening bell. Merck (MRK) and Schering-Plough (SGP) are merging in a cash and stock transaction. Under terms of the agreement, Schering-Plough shareholders will receive 0.5767 shares of MRK and $10.50 in cash for each share of SGP. Based on MRK's closing price last week, the offer to SGP shareholders is valued at $23.61 per share, or an aggregate $41.1 billion. Shares of MRK are currently trading hands at $21.50 per share, down 5.5%, in premarket action. Shares of SGP are trading almost 18% higher at $20.75 per share in premarket trading. The deal's development follows the announcement in January that Pfizer (PFE) will acquire Wyeth (WYE) for nearly $68 billion in a cash and stock transaction. Separately, Merck reaffirmed its outlook for 2009; the company expects to post adjusted earnings that range from $3.15 to $3.30 per share. The company's forecast brackets analysts' consensus full-year earnings estimate of $3.26 per share.

06:29 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -4.40. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +1.00.

06:29 am : Nikkei...7086.03...-87.10...-1.20%. Hang Seng...11344.58...-576.90...-4.80%.

06:29 am : FTSE...3505.30...-25.40...-0.70%. DAX...3635.70...-30.70...-0.80%.


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