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 Post subject: March 6th Friday 2009
PostPosted: Sat Mar 07, 2009 4:46 am 
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Today's trades that were posted in real-time in #FuturesTrades chat room via my IRC user name NihabaAshi are archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=20&t=124

My Trading Performance: +46.50 Emini ES points

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Dow fights back
The blue-chip indicator musters a gain after hitting a 12-year low on the weak jobs report and bank woes.
By Alexandra Twin, CNNMoney.com senior writer
Last Updated: March 6, 2009: 6:32 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Stocks staged a comeback late Friday afternoon, with the Dow and S&P 500 bouncing after hitting 12-year lows on a bleak February jobs report and more worries about the bank sector.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) rose 32 points, or 0.5%. During the session, the Dow briefly touched 6469.95, the lowest intraday level since April 15, 1997. The Dow has fallen in 14 of the last 19 sessions.

The S&P 500 (SPX) index added less than 1 point, or 0.1%. Earlier, the S&P fell to 666.79, its lowest point during a session since Sept. 11, 1996.

The Nasdaq composite (COMP) lost 5 points, or 0.4%. The tech-fueled index briefly touched 1268.54, breaking through its November lows, before closing above that level.

Stocks slipped through most of the session, but the losses were pretty slim considering the implications of the grim jobs report. In the last hour of trade, stocks staged a recovery, with the blue chips ending with gains.

Stocks cut losses on a mix of technical factors and news reports that Britain will take a stake of up to 75% in Lloyd's banking group. Britain will also cap losses on the troubled bank.

Wall Street may be getting nearer to a momentary plateau, and the fact that stocks didn't see a bigger selloff on the dismal jobs report could be a positive indication, said Fred Dickson, chief market strategist at D.A. Davidson & Co.

Although Wall Street could be on track to stabilize, that doesn't mean that a so-called bottom is forming, analysts said.

"Everyone has been trying to pick a bottom for the last two months and they've gotten killed," said Donald Selkin, chief market strategist at National Securities.

However, with the major gauges at multi-year lows and reports indicating investors are getting more bearish, there is a contrarian case to be made for a bear market rally forming.

Next week brings little in the way of market-moving economic or earnings news. But what could be especially of interest to Wall Streeters is a Congressional hearing Thursday about mark-to-market accounting - a rule that critics say has caused the credit crisis to accelerate.

"Everyone is looking to the hearing and as the week develops that could be big," he said.

Jobs: Employers cut 651,000 jobs from their payrolls in February, roughly in line with forecasts for cuts of 650,000, the government reported. January's losses were revised higher to 655,000. December's losses were revised up to 681,000, the most in any month since 1949.

However, market participants were bracing for a more dismal payroll number, and had already sold shares leading up to the report.

The unemployment rate, generated by a separate survey, rose to 8.1% from 7.6% in January, its highest level in 25 years. Economists thought unemployment would rise to 7.9%.

The White House said the job losses show there is a long way to go before the economy recovers.

New York Federal Reserve Bank President William C. Dudley said that the economy has considerable momentum to the downside. Dudley is also the vice chairman of the Fed's policy-making panel.

Stocks tumbled Thursday on a slew of bad news: GM said its survival is in doubt, Citigroup broke the buck, and China disappointed by failing to boost its economic stimulus program.

As of Friday afternoon, the Dow is down over 6% for the week.

Since closing at all-time highs on Oct. 9, 2007, the Dow has lost nearly 53% and the S&P 500 has lost 56%. Year-to-date, both the Dow and the S&P 500 are down nearly 25%.

Company news: Wells Fargo (WFC, Fortune 500) said it will slash its quarterly dividend 85% to 5 cents from 34 cents in an attempt to save $5 billion a year. Shares gained 6%.

But other financial stocks continued to struggle after the previous session's selloff. Dow component Citigroup (C, Fortune 500) again struggled around the $1 per share mark.

Fellow Dow stock General Motors (GM, Fortune 500) plunged another 22%, after touching a 75-year low earlier in the session.

Dow stock General Electric (GE, Fortune 500) managed to bounce back from 18-year lows hit earlier in the week. The stock has been sliding on worries that the company's management hasn't fully accounted for losses in the Capital division, which has been plagued by the same issues as the rest of the financial sector.

Apple (AAPL, Fortune 500) led the tech losers after JPMorgan Chase downgraded the stock.

Market breadth was negative. On the New York Stock Exchange, losers beat winners three to two on volume of 1.77 billion shares. On the Nasdaq, decliners topped advancers by a narrow margin on volume of 2.51 billion shares.

Bonds: Treasury prices fell, raising the yield on the benchmark 10-year note to 2.87% from 2.81% Thursday. Treasury prices and yields move in opposite directions.

Lending rates were little changed. The 3-month Libor rate rose to 1.29% from 1.28% on Thursday, while the overnight Libor rate held steady at 0.32%, according to Bloomberg.com. Libor is a bank-to-bank lending rate.

Other markets: In global trading, most Asian markets ended lower. European markets closed lower as well.

In currency trading, the dollar fell versus the euro and rose against the yen.

U.S. light crude oil for April delivery rose $1.91 to settle at $45.52 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

COMEX gold for April delivery settled up $14.90 to settle at $942.70 an ounce. To top of page

Yahoo! Finance

4:30 pm : The broader market turned in a modest gain, thanks to a late rally effort that overcame steep losses.

Initial gains were broad-based as participants began buying in the wake of the February jobs report, which indicated nonfarm payrolls fell 651,000, in-line with expectations, and unemployment climbed more than expected to a 25-year high of 8.1%. Stocks were up as much as 2.4% in what resembled past trends that saw stocks sell off leading up to the monthly jobs report, but then rally in its wake as traders "bought the bad news."

The advance crumbled, though, as sellers re-entered the fold to push financial stocks into the red. Financials were up 4.0% before falling to a 5.3% loss.

Wells Fargo (WFC 8.66, +0.54) was one of the few financial players to log a gain. The company announced it will cut its quarterly dividend to $0.05 per share from $0.34 per share in order to preserve capital and repay government funds as quickly as possible.

Financials closed with a 1.4% lower.

Weakness in financials undercut the broader market, taking the S&P 500 and the Dow past prior session lows to their worst intraday levels since 1996. The S&P 500 was down as much as 2.3%, while the Dow was down as much as 1.9%.

The Nasdaq fell to its lowest level in six years as large-cap tech stocks buckled. Large-cap tech had actually provided support to the Nasdaq in recent sessions, but the market's downward trend proved too much. The Nasdaq traded with a loss of 2.4% at its session low.

Marvell Tech (MRVL 8.06, +0.54) was one standout in the Nasdaq, though. The company posted better-than-expected earnings and issued upside guidance.

A late rally effort helped stocks finish off their lows. The effort stalled a bit as sellers redoubled their efforts, but the broader market was able to overcome.

Though the Nasdaq finished lower for the 13th time in 15 sessions, the Dow and S&P 500 were each able to close modestly higher. The Dow has finished four of the last 15 sessions higher. The S&P 500 has finished three of the last 15 sessions higher.

The broader market is now down 57% from its 2007 high. At its high, the S&P 500 traded at a price-to-trailing earnings ratio of 17.4. The stock market currently trades at 10.2x trailing earnings.DJ30 +32.50 NASDAQ -5.74 NQ100 -0.9% R2K +0.5% SP400 -0.7% SP500 +0.83 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1318/2.15 bln/1377 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1138/1.77 bln/1923

3:30 pm : Crude oil contracts for April delivery priced crude at $45.73 per barrel at the close of pit trading. Crude closed near its session high with a 4.9% gain.

April natural gas contracts finished at $3.98 each, down 2.8%. Natural gas prices traded with weakness for virtually the entire session, registering multiyear lows at $3.92 per contract. Natural gas contracts had not traded at such low levels since late 2002.

Precious metals showed steady strength throughout the session. Gold contracts for April closed with the yellow metal priced 1.6% higher at $942.70 per ounce. Silver contracts for May delivery closed the session with the metal priced 1.6% higher at $13.33 per ounce. DJ30 -109.04 NASDAQ -28.78 SP500 -14.43 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 910/1.98 bln/1754 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 564/1.25 bln/2515

3:00 pm : Coca-Cola (KO 38.58, +0.73) and McDonald's (MCD 51.37, +0.51) are providing support to the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Their gains are having limited effect, though, since decliners outnumber advancers in the Dow by more than 2-to-1.

Verizon (VZ 26.67, -1.24) is a primary laggard in the Dow. The integrated telecom giant was a leader in the prior session; its gains stemmed from an analyst upgrade.

Retailers are back under pressure. The group fell in the prior session amid sweeping selling efforts and a batch of disappointing same-store sales results for February. Dillard's (DDS 3.06, +0.06) reported last evening a loss on lower revenue, while Ann Taylor (ANN 3.48, -2.06) posted this morning worse-than-expected earnings. Retailers are currently trading 4.0% lower.DJ30 -108.72 NASDAQ -27.62 SP500 -13.74 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 943/1.79 bln/1721 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 628/1.12 bln/2441

2:30 pm : The major indices trade near session lows, with all ten sectors posting a loss.

Crude oil prices are advancing as pit trading closes. Oil recently hit session highs with a gain of 4.4% to $45.50 per barrel.
DJ30 -61.73 NASDAQ -19.68 SP500 -8.66 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1077/1.63 bln/1567 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 834/1.02 bln/2224

2:00 pm : Dow Jones reports that General Electric (GE 6.77, +0.11) may participate in the government's TALF program. The report comes as the company continues working to shore up investor confidence in its health.

Dwindling confidence in GE's health has sent the company's stock to multiyear lows during recent sessions.

Insiders have been doing plenty of buying to help bolster confidence. On March 5, a GE director purchased 30,000 shares. Another 30,000 shares were purchased by a director on March 2, while the company's chairman bought 50,000 shares on March 4.DJ30 -49.54 NASDAQ -18.34 SP500 -7.97 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1031/1.48 bln/1566 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 825/923 mln/2207

1:30 pm : Many market watchers continue to argue that stocks look oversold. In the near term, stocks are down 8.5% week-to-date, or nearly 13% in the past two weeks. Over a longer term, stocks have lost approximately 23% in the last three months, or 48% in the last year.

The steep losses have pushed the stock market to new multiyear lows, and compressed valuations. At its current level, the S&P 500 trades at a price-to-trailing earnings ratio of 10.0. In 2008, the market's P/E averaged 15.6. Stocks traded at an average P/E multiple of 16.8 for 2007. In 2006, the average P/E was 16.6. In 2005, the average P/E was 17.5. In 2004, the stock market traded with an average P/E of 18.9. The average in 2003 was 19.2. It was 22.3 in 2002. It was 22.9 in 2001, and 27.2 in 2000.DJ30 -70.73 NASDAQ -22.15 SP500 -9.76 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1046/1.34 bln/1543 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 819/835 mln/2202

1:00 pm : Stocks began the session with solid gains as traders showed willingness to buy in the wake of dour jobs data. With near-term conditions looking oversold, participants appeared poised to build on the early advance, but instead pushed away and let the major indices retreat to fresh multiyear lows.

Early gains were broad-based, but renewed weakness in the financial sector undercut the broader market. Financial stocks are down 4.0%, trading at their lowest levels since 1992.

The sector's losses come even though Wells Fargo (WFC 8.30, +0.18) is cutting its quarterly dividend to $0.05 per share from $0.34 per share. The decision was made in order to preserve capital and repay government funds as quickly as possible.

Technology stocks are trading with a 2.4% loss. Tech had exhibited relative strength in recent sessions, thanks to large-cap tech stocks. Large-cap tech had actually helped keep the Nasdaq from falling to new multiyear lows, unlike the broader S&P 500, but that support has buckled. The Nasdaq fell below its November low this session, and now trades at its worst level in six years.

Apple (AAPL 84.40, -4.44) is a primary laggard in the Nasdaq. Its target price was lowered modestly by analysts at JPMorgan.

Marvell Tech (MRVL 8.06, +0.54) is sporting solid gains, though. The company posted better-than-expected earnings and issued upside guidance.

Despite the session's broad-based weakness, energy (+0.2%) and materials (+0.5%) stocks are showing gains. Their advance is being helped by higher crude oil prices and higher commodity prices; crude futures are currently pricing oil 1.7% higher at $44.30 per barrel, while the CRB Commodity Index is up 0.9%.

Health care (+0.1%) is the only other sector trading with a gain.

February nonfarm payrolls fell 651,000, in-line with expectations. The unemployment rate climbed more than expected to 8.1%, which is the highest level seen in 25 years. DJ30 -43.41 NASDAQ -16.51 SP500 -6.42 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1095/1.23 bln/1460 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 939/762 mln/2074

12:30 pm : Dow Chemical (DOW 7.63, +1.16) and Rohm & Haas Company (ROH 61.15, +7.14) confirmed today that they are in discussions relating to the merger of their companies and the pending litigation. At this time, the companies cannot predict the outcome of these discussions. However, many analysts expect a lower price offer to result. Dow originally offered to pay $78 per share of ROH.

Meanwhile, Roche confirms it has increased its offer price for all outstanding publicly-held shares of Genentech (DNA 89.99, +8.35) to $93.00 per share and extended the offer to 12:00 AM ET March 20, 2009.

All other terms and conditions of the tender offer remain unchanged. DJ30 -35.68 NASDAQ -16.28 SP500 -4.75 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1143/1.11 ln/1387 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1035/687 mln/1955

12:05 pm : Stocks are chopping along in negative territory as participants approach the midsession mark. Overall news flow has been slow.

Still, Marvell Tech (MRVL 8.12, +0.60) posted better-than-expected earnings following the prior session's close. The company also issued upside guidance during its conference call.

With tax season nigh, business for H&R Block (HRB 18.88, +1.56) is making its seasonal upswing. The company reported this morning better-than-expected earnings for its latest quarter. Given the seasonality of its business, H&R Block posted losses in the two prior quarters.DJ30 -6.85 NASDAQ -14.65 SP500 -2.47 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1136/1.00 bln/1374 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1099/621 mln/1873

11:30 am : Stocks have fallen below the prior session's lows, thereby registering new multiyear intraday lows.

New York Fed President Dudley stated that there is no imminent recovery for markets, and the economy has considerable downside momemtum, according to Dow Jones.

Dudley announced that a Public-Private Investment Fund (PPIF), which will be underpinned by TARP capital and private capital, will be used to purchase illiquid, legacy assets. Still, the terms and conditions of the PPIF have not been announced, but the facility should help put a floor under prices of lower-quality assets and provide a means for banks to shed such assets from their balance sheets. DJ30 -24.77 NASDAQ -20.27 SP500 -4.55 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1034/849 mln/1446 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 984/534 mln/1984

11:00 am : All three major indices are now trading with losses. The decline is broad-based, but renewed selling pressure among financial stocks appears to be the primary catalyst for the downward move.

Financial stocks are currently down 2.8%. They were up as much as 3.5% in the early going.

Goldman Sachs (GS 76.61, -5.11) is trading as a primary laggard in the sector. GS began the session with a healthy gain, but has since slipped to its lowest point in more than one month.

Wells Fargo (WFC 8.54, +0.42) continues to sport solid gains, while providing support to the financial sector. The stock is up after the company announced plans to cut its quarterly dividend from $0.34 per share to $0.05 per share, which will save capital and help expedite the time to repay government loans.DJ30 -43.01 NASDAQ -22.37 SP500 -6.64 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1015/682 mln/1370 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 793/438 mln/1951

10:30 am : After putting together a strong start, stocks are now on the slide. The Nasdaq has completely reversed its gains and now trades in negative territory.

Apple (AAPL 85.43, -3.41) is a primary laggard in the Nasdaq. Analysts at JPMorgan lowered recently their price target for shares of AAPL.

Fellow-large tech stocks Qualcomm (QCOM 33.59, -1.04) and Google (GOOG 301.60, -4.04) are also trading as laggards in the Nasdaq. They are also undercutting the broader technology sector, which is the largest sector in the S&P 500 by market weight. The tech sector, as a whole, is down 1.1%DJ30 +43.97 NASDAQ -3.79 SP500 +3.37 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1258/475 mln/1061 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1480/321 mln/1372

10:00 am : Stocks continue to trade with solid gains, though they have eased back after a sharp upswing in the first few minutes of trading. Commodities are showing gains of their own, trading with broad strength.

Crude oil futures contracts are pricing oil at $45.25 per barrel, reflecting a gain of 3.7%. Higher oil prices, combined with strength in the equities markets, are driving gains in energy stocks (+3.3%).

Natural gas prices are down, however. Natural gas is currently being priced 1.7% lower at $4.02 per contract.

Prices for precious metals contracts are trading higher. Gold is currently up 0.6% to $933.20 per ounce, while silver is up 1.7% to $13.34 per ounce. Much of their gain is tied to a weaker dollar, which is down 1.2%, according to the dollar index.

Early movers: Trading up: LVB +26.9%, FFG +26.1%, ARST +23.8%, FWLT +20%, CLP +14.7%, PL +14.4%, NCMI +10.9%, TASR +10.1%, HOG +8.7%, HRB +8.2%, MRVL +8%, BBL +7.6%. Trading down: PODD -31.5%, FSYS -28.5%, IPI -16.6%, ANN -13.5%, PTY -5.5%, PPDI -5.4%.DJ30 +87.06 NASDAQ +10.01 SP500 +10.04 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1550/241 mln/606 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1907/196 mln/879

09:45 am : Stocks are showing robust gains in the first few minutes of trading, despite a rather tepid tone in premarket action. A clear leader has yet to be established, but energy stocks are sporting the best gains of any sector in the S&P 500.

Energy is currently up 3.7% as an array of companies in the sector trade higher. Exxon Mobil (XOM 63.47, +1.25) is providing a lift to integrated oil companies (+2.3%). Spectra Energy (SE 11.76, +0.25) is helping oil and gas storage and transportation companies (+2.7%). BJ Services (BJS 9.33, +0.20) and Schlumberger (SLB 36.55, +0.39) are early gainers among oil and gas equipment outfits (+1.5%).

Financial stocks initially stumbled a bit, but have since mustered a strong gain. The financial sector is now up 3.5%.DJ30 +132.77 NASDAQ +14.91 SP500 +13.53 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1563/146 mln/508 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2041/125 mln/680

09:20 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +6.70. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +6.00. Stock futures are improved from earlier levels, but have pulled back from their morning highs. The overall tone in premarket trading remains rather tepid after stocks closed the prior session at fresh multiyear lows. Heading into this session, stocks are down roughly 7% for the week. Though short-term conditions are looking oversold, buyers appear slow to make a move as they digest the details of the February nonfarm payroll report. Nonfarm payrolls fell 651,000, in-line with expectations, but the unemployment rate climbed more than expected to 8.1%, which is the highest level seen in 25 years. Meanwhile, Wells Fargo (WFC) announced it is cutting its quarterly dividend to $0.05 per share from $0.34 per share. The decision was made in order to preserve capital and repay government funds as quickly as possible. The news is being treated positively as shares of WFC are trading higher in premarket action.

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +9.60. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +10.80. European markets are looking for direction. The major European indices had been trading lower earlier, but moved into higher ground in the wake of the U.S. February jobs report. Results are now mixed. Britain's FTSE is currently up 0.6%. Energy and materials stocks are showing particular strength. Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A), BP PLC (BP), and BHP Billiton (BHP) are primary leaders... Germany's DAX is also up 0.7%. Daimler AG is providing leadership as it reclaims losses incurred in the prior session. Financial outfits Deutsche Boerse and Allianz (AZ) are trading as laggards... France's CAC is lagging the other indices a bit, but is still trading with a 0.2% gain. Total (TOT) is a providing support to the French market. However, weakness in financial outfits BNP Paribas, Societe Generale, and Credit Agricole is undercutting gains in the broader market... In Asia, the MSCI Asia-Pacific Index closed 1.0% lower. Losses were led by financial institutions... Japan's Nikkei shed 3.5%, following the declines seen on Wall Street Thursday. Banks were among the largest decliners. Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (MTU) and Mizuho Financial (MFG) both retreated. Shippers had recently gained amid hopes for economic stimulus, but surrendered gains as they were hit with stiff selling pressure Friday. Separately, Japan's Financial Services Agency plans to extend curbs on short-selling of stocks beyond the end of this month, according to reports... In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng closed 2.4% lower, dropping to a 13-year closing low over disappointment that Beijing did not announce a new fiscal stimulus package. Most financial stocks fell, with Hang Seng Bank dropping for a fifth straight session. Chinese lenders China Construction Bank and Bank of China advanced ahead of the rebalancing of the Hang Seng Index on Monday, which will see a higher weighting for both the stocks.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +6.40. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +7.00. According to the latest government information, 651,000 nonfarm jobs were lost in February. Economists expected nonfarm payrolls to decline by 650,000. Meanwhile, January's reading was revised upward to show a loss of 655,000 jobs. Manufacturing payrolls declined 168,000, which is less than the decline of 200,000 that was widely expected. Average weekly hours worked were unchanged from the prior reading and in-line with expectations at 33.3 hours. Average hourly earnings were up 0.2% month-over-month. That was in-line with expectations and unchanged from the prior month's downwardly revised reading. Unemployment now stands at 8.1%, up from 7.6% in January. Economists expected unemployment to total 7.9% in February. Stock futures have improved in the wake of the announcement.

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +0.40. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +1.80. News flow is slow and stock futures are trading flat ahead of the latest nonfarm payroll data (8:30 AM ET). Economists expect the data to reflect further weakening of labor markets. As such, the consensus estimate calls for a loss of 650,000 jobs, and an unemployment rate of 7.9%. In the week leading up to the report, stocks lost more than 7%. Stocks are down 22% from their February high. Whether this is an extension of the pattern in which stocks sell off into the employment number remains to be seen. However, if the pattern holds, there is potential for a "buy on the bad news" reaction. Such a reaction could squeeze short sellers into covering their positions and produce a rebound. Still, stocks have been challenged to put together a sustainable rally in recent weeks; the stock market has finished 12 of the last 14 sessions with a loss.

06:41 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -0.60. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +3.80.

06:41 am : Nikkei...7173.10...-260.40...-3.50%. Hang Seng...11921.52...-289.70...-2.40%.

06:41 am : FTSE...3513.62...-16.20...-0.50%. DAX...3658.07...-37.20...-1.00%.


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