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 Post subject: March 3rd Tuesday 2009
PostPosted: Tue Mar 03, 2009 8:32 pm 
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Joined: Sat Jan 10, 2009 2:06 pm
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Today's trades that were posted in real-time in #FuturesTrades chat room via my IRC user name NihabaAshi are archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=20&t=119

My Trading Performance: +5.25 Emini ES points

Note: I was using two different brokers today and had disconnection problems along with poor market order fills on entries and exits. Although I only show one broker statement (primary broker) above...the other one not shown was at a loss of about -21.00 ES points and I forgot to do a screen capture when I closed the program out of frustration. Overall, it's frustrating because I have several brokers for different types of trading and the only losing trading account is with Infinity Futures and most of that is due to the fact that I'm having problems adjusting to the Infinity AT software (it has a few nuances such as a clicking issue on order entries/exits) due to its "Quick Click" on my Vista machines that suppose to be compatible on Vista.

Here's the problem...the "Quick Click" allows orders to be enter on one click when the window is active. However, on my Vista and the Vista of several other traders I know online...it actually takes 2 clicks to enter and exit orders. Worst, if you forget it takes multiple clicks on the same order entry/exit button...you will still be in the trade either losing profits on any retrace or getting a bigger loss as the trade continues against you.

As for exiting the trade with the problem "Quick Click"...position reversals are scary because sometimes I didn't know if I was able to reverse the position or the position reverse a few times due to the window becoming active after several clicks...it's difficult to explain but hopefully you understand my explanation.

By the way, in comparison to my other trading accounts, Infinity is a small account and the losses are compensated by the profits in the other accounts. Yet, the goal was to eventually make Infinity my primary account. Yet, in light of my discovery of the "Quick Click" problem...Infinity will remain as a backup broker in which I will only use the account in emergency situations (e.g. my other broker platform crashes) until they fix the problem or until I discover a work-around the problem on my own.


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Yahoo! Finance

4:25 pm : Stocks traded without clear direction as market participants were left uninspired by the absence of market-moving headlines. In turn, the major indices swung back and forth before closing lower for the fifth straight session.

Consequently, the mounting losses have taken the S&P 500 and the Dow to new multiyear lows. The S&P 500 is now down almost 56% from its bull market high, which was reached in late 2007. The Dow is down roughly 53% from its 2007 high.

With stocks looking oversold, market participants actually bid the stock market up as much as 1.5% in the early going. The advance was broad-based, but eventually fell apart. Only the energy (+0.3%), technology (+0.3%), and materials (+0.6%) sectors were able to finish the session higher.

Treasury and the Federal Reserve are launching the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility (TALF), which will lend up to $200 billion to eligible owners of certain AAA-rated asset-backed securities. The effort has the potential to generate up to $1 trillion of lending for businesses and households.

The program will hold monthly fundings through December 2009 or longer if the Federal Reserve chooses to extend the facility.

By creating a facility that will purchase certain asset-backed securities, the Fed is aiming to improve liquidity and credit conditions in the financial system. According to Fed Chairman Bernanke the effectiveness of actions in restoring financial stability will be critical in the timing and strength of a broader economic recovery.

Still, Bernanke indicated the near-term outlook for the economy remains weak. Economists at Goldman Sachs concur; they expect the U.S. economy will fall 7.0% in the first quarter, according to Dow Jones.

Despite housing stimulus provisions, pending home sales in January declined 7.7%. The consensus estimate called for a 3.5% decline. The data reflect the effects of ongoing job losses, lost wealth, and weak consumer confidence.

Similar forces continue weighing heavily on auto sales. Ford Motor (F 1.81, -0.07) reported February sales in North America fell roughly 48%, which is steeper than the 42% drop that was expected. General Motors (GM 1.99, -0.02) reported February sales sank nearly 53%, exceeding the 45% fall that was widely forecast. Separate reports indicated GM's chief operating officer said that without government funds the company's European unit would run out of cash in the second quarter.

On a similar note, reports indicate Toyota Motor (TM 61.01, +0.35) may ask the Japanese government for aid, which would help offset expected losses.

Despite the lack of market-moving news this session, tomorrow's trade should get its cues early in the morning. The ADP Employment Report for February is due first thing (8:15 AM ET). The report will provide a glimpse of the government's official jobs report, which is due Friday. The February ISM Services Index is due later in the morning (10:00 AM ET).DJ30 -37.27 NASDAQ -1.84 NQ100 +0.4% R2K -1.9% SP400 -0.7% SP500 -4.49 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1730/942/2.15 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2109/1003/1.90 bln

3:30 pm : The major indices have pulled back amid choppy trading. Stocks have failed to move in a clear direction for the entire session.

Energy stocks (+0.6%) continue to outperform the broader market this session. Their advance is largely owed to higher energy prices.

Crude oil futures contracts closed pit trading with oil priced at $40.58 per barrel. That reflected a 1.1% rise in the price of crude oil.

Natural gas contracts added 1.0% to the price of natural gas. Natural gas closed the session at almost $4.20 per contract.

The United States Oil Fund (USO 25.41, +0.93) is up nearly 4% this session. The U.S. Natural Gas Fund (UNG 17.64, +0.62) is trading with a similar gain.

Precious metals prices fell amid continued selling pressure. Gold prices settled at $913.60 per ounce, down 2.8%. Silver prices closed 2.7% lower at $12.72 per ounce.DJ30 -11.46 NASDAQ +5.79 SP500 -1.81 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1619/1050/1.91 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2057/1054/1.39 bln

3:00 pm : A rebound in financial stocks has helped the broader market climb to a healthy gain.

Financial stocks were down as much as 3.1% at their session low, but are now trading with a 1.0% gain. However, financials remain off their session high, where they traded with a gain of 3.5%.

Several other sectors have joined in the recovery effort. Only utilities (-1.7%) and telecom (-0.5%) are still showing losses.DJ30 +84.11 NASDAQ +21.70 SP500 +8.61 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1380/1278/1.69 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1726/1381/1.23 bln

2:30 pm : Energy stocks are now trading with the largest gain of any other sector. The sector is currently up 2.3%.

Within the sector, Noble (NE 23.30, +1.09) is trading with leadership after Dow Jones reported shares of NE were upgraded by analysts at Goldman Sachs.

Meanwhile, BP PLC (BP 34.49, -0.66) is lagging after having its shares downgraded by other analysts, and a Dow Jones report said an executive from the company expects refining margins to be lower next year. Those announcements have overshadowed news that the company discovered a new offshore oil location.DJ30 +74.14 NASDAQ +21.03 SP500 +7.62 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1385/1250/1.26 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1764/1340/1.14 bln

2:00 pm : General Motors (GM 2.07, +0.06) reported U.S. sales for February were down 52.9%. Wall Street was expecting a 45% decline.

Ford (F 1.83, -0.05) already reported downbeat results of its own. Ford's sales fell 48.4% in February, though the consensus called for a 42% drop.

Total U.S. vehicle sales for February have yet to hit the wires. The current consensus calls for annualized sales of 9.4 million units. One year ago annualized sales hit 15.2 million units. DJ30 +8.21 NASDAQ +5.96 SP500 -0.31 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1516/1086/1.36 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2035/1053/1.00 bln

1:30 pm : Stocks continue to look for direction as they oscillate near the neutral line.

Despite what has generally been listless trading in the broader market, energy stocks are sporting solid gains. Energy is currently up 1.0%, thanks largely to a 1.0% advance by crude oil futures prices. Crude oil futures are currently being priced at $40.55 per barrel.

Materials are also trading higher. The sector is up 1.1% as commodities gain. The CRB Commodity Index is up 0.8%.

Technology is trading with a more modest gain of 0.3%. However, the gains being exhibited by large-cap tech holdings are providing support to the Nasdaq Composite. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq 100 is up a healthy 0.5%.DJ30 -22.69 NASDAQ +0.32 SP500 -3.60 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1554/1031/1.22 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2109/973/913 mln

1:00 pm : Despite little change in the fundamental landscape, stocks are looking oversold now that the S&P 500 has fallen nearly 10% during the last five sessions. In turn, participants pushed the stock market to an early gain of 1.5%, but the advance has come under pressure.

After trading with broad-based gains, the S&P 500 fell to a loss of 1.2%, which took it to fresh multiyear lows. Stocks have since pared their losses.

There have not been any earnings announcements of consequence to the broader market this session, and there have only been a few other headlines to digest.

Treasury and the Federal Reserve are launching the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility (TALF), which has the potential to generate up to $1 trillion of lending for businesses and households. These markets have historically been a critical component of lending, but they have been virtually shuttered since the worsening of the financial crisis in October.

By improving the flow of credit, economists hope financial conditions will improve, enabling a broader economic recovery. Still, given the time necessary for the efforts to take effect, Goldman Sachs expects the U.S. economy will fall 7.0% in the first quarter, according to Dow Jones.

Though the near-term outlook for the economy remains weak, a number of factors should promote the return of solid gains in economic activity in the context of low and stable inflation, according to Fed Chairman Bernanke. Importantly, Bernanke indicated the effectiveness of actions in restoring financial stability will be critical determinants of the timing and strength of a recovery. Financial stocks are currently among the session's weakest performing sectors. The financial sector is down 1.8%.

As for corporate headlines, Citigroup (C 1.22, +0.02) is working with certain borrowers struggling to stay current with their mortgage payments.

Ford Motor (F 1.84, -0.04) reported U.S. February sales fell 48.4%. A drop of 42% had been expected by Wall Street. Participants continue to wait for results from General Motors (GM 2.02, +0.01).

Reports indicate Toyota Motor (TM 60.27, -0.39) may ask the Japanese government for aid in order to offset expected losses for the year.

In economic news, pending home sales in January declined 7.7%. That was worse than the consensus estimate, which called for a 3.5% decline. The decline has been attributed to ongoing job losses and weak consumer confidence, despite housing stimulus provisions.DJ30 -19.83 NASDAQ -0.90 SP500 -3.29 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1549/1018/1.10 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2107/952/836 mln

12:30 pm : The stock market has retraced recent losses, making its way back into positive territory. Stocks had been down as much as 1.2%, where they traded at their lowest levels since the fourth quarter of 1996.

Treasury Secretary Geithner is beginning his testimony before the House Ways and Means Committee. According to Dow Jones, Geithner stated long-term debt reduction is crucial for the economy.DJ30 +27.24 NASDAQ +7.92 SP500 +1.91 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1432/1108/983 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1893/1158/757 mln

12:00 pm : The stock market continues to drift lower, extending its losses. Every sector in the S&P 500 is now in the red.

There has been little in the way of market-moving headlines this session. Participants continue to await the latest vehicle sales data, which is expected to be released during market hours.

Walgreens (WAG 22.76, -0.48) reported a 1.9% drop in same-store sales for February, though total sales increased 3.4%. Pharmacy sales gained 3.9% overall, while same-store pharmacy sales declined 0.9%.DJ30 -32.25 NASDAQ -4.46 SP500 -5.49 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1591/911/859 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2242/794/672 mln

11:30 am : Stocks have retreated into the red. The downward move puts the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average at new multiyear intraday lows. Though the S&P 500 is now a few points below 700, traders will be watching whether stocks move another leg lower or catch a bid and retrace losses.

Weakness has become rather widespread. Stocks began the session with broad-based gains as all 10 sectors in the S&P 500 traded higher. Now, only energy (+0.6%), materials (+0.7%), and technology (+0.2%) are trading in the green.DJ30 -16.16 NASDAQ -1.31 SP500 -3.37 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1441/1024/713 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2023/967/565 mln

11:00 am : Action has been choppy thus far. Though the major indices continue to sport healthy gains, results are becoming mixed.

Commodities are also trading in mixed fashion as energy prices climb higher and precious metals prices slip.

Crude futures contracts are currently pricing oil 1.3% higher at $40.65 per share. Natural gas contracts, meanwhile, are up roughly 3.5% to $4.30 per contract.

Gold contracts are currently pricing the metal at $915.50 per ounce, down 2.6%. Silver is being priced at $12.59 per ounce, down 3.7%.

Still, the CRB Commodity Index is sporting a 0.8% gain.DJ30 +21.27 NASDAQ +6.21 SP500 +2.08 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1199/1223/544 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1663/1284/440 mln

10:30 am : Fed Chairman Bernanke indicated in his testimony to the Senate Budget Committee that recent near-term indicators show little sign of improvement, and data indicate labor market conditions may have worsened further in recent weeks.

In reaction to the deteriorating job market, sizable losses of wealth, and tighter credit conditions, households have continued to tighten spending. Meanwhile, home sales and new construction have continued to decline despite lower mortgage rates

The effectiveness of the policy actions taken by the Federal Reserve, the Treasury, and other government entities in restoring a reasonable degree of financial stability will be critical determinants of the timing and strength of the recovery.

The recently passed fiscal package is aimed at strengthening near-term economic activity. The goal of the fiscal package is not just to provide a one-time boost to the economy, but to lay the groundwork for a self-sustaining, broad-based recovery.

Although progress has been made on the financial front since last fall, more needs to be done. As such, Treasury recently announced plans for further steps to ensure the strength and soundness of the financial system and to promote a more smooth flow of credit to households and businesses. The plan would use the remaining resources appropriated to the Treasury under the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act, approximately $350 billion, and involve additional spending to support the activities of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

Bernanke is currently entertaining questions from committee members.DJ30 +47.24 NASDAQ +10.76 SP500 +5.18 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1035/1315/401 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1454/1463/335 mln

10:00 am : Stocks are surrendering their gains in the wake of disappointing January pending home sales data.

Pending home sales for January decreased 7.7% month-over-month, which is worse than the 3.5% decline that was widely expected. December's data was revised downward to reflect a 4.8% increase. The December change remains the only positive monthly change since the August data was released.

Early movers: Trading up: BRKR +15.4%, TYPE +14.6%, FR +12.4%, PDLI +11.8%, THO +11.5%, BPOP +11.3%, DDR +11.1%, CBG +11.1%, DCT +11%, AZO +10.7%, SOL +9.5%. Trading down: ICTG -20.5%, IMMR -18.2%, PRX -16.6%, SNTA -11.8%, HTE -9.8%, MTW -8%, MGM -7.9%.DJ30 +39.35 NASDAQ +11.38 SP500 +4.31 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 823/1402/220 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1215/1612/213 mln

09:45 am : The prior session's beaten down sectors are leading early gains. Financials are up 1.6% after declining 6.8% Monday, materials are up 1.9% after dropping 6.9% in the prior session, and energy is up 1.6% after falling 6.4% Monday. However, the gains are being pared.

Data for January pending home sales are due at the top of the hour.DJ30 +62.29 NASDAQ +14.80 SP500 +8.51 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 652/1493/131 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 849/1877/132 mln

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +12.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +17.50. News flow remains slow. The absence of negative headlines has given traders a chance to lift stock futures prices following the prior session's decline, which took stocks to fresh multiyear lows. Without any major catalysts providing direction to the stock market, participants will keep a close eye on whether the indices will be able to sustain an advance. Should sellers make their presence known, participants will be watching whether the S&P 500 finds support at 700. For now, participants are still awaiting the latest monthly auto sales data, as well as January pending home sales data. Fed Chairman Bernanke and Treasury Secretary Geithner are both scheduled to offer testimonies to congressional committees; investors will listen closely for additional insight into economic developments.

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +12.70. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +18.30. News flow has been relatively slow this morning, and there haven't been any earnings announcements of consequence. That has allowed participants to settle in after sending stocks sharply lower in the prior session, which resulted in the stock market's 10th loss in 11 sessions. Stocks closed the prior session at new multiyear lows. Crude oil futures are currently trading 3.6% higher at $41.60 per barrel in electronic trading. Gold contracts, meanwhile, are pricing the yellow metal 1.5% lower at $926.00 per ounce.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +12.70. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +17.50. U.S. stock futures have improved from earlier levels, indicating a more solid start for the session. Britain's FTSE is leading losses in Europe Tuesday. The FTSE is currently down 2.1%, with primary weakness in shares of energy outfits BP PLC (BP), Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A), and BG Group. Though BP disclosed that it discovered a new offshore oil source, its shares were also recently downgraded by select analysts. Germany's DAX and France's CAC are holding up far better than the FTSE; the DAX is trading near the unchanged mark, and France's CAC is up 0.3%. In Germany, advancers have a slight edge over laggards. Volkswagen and Daimler are showing leadership, but financial companies Allianz (AZ) and Deutsche Boerse are trading with weakness. Meanwhile, Vivendi and ArcelorMittal (MT) are leading gains in France. Societe Generale is a primary laggard there. In Asia, Japan's Nikkei shed 0.7%. Reuters reports the index registered a four-month closing low as banking shares fell, though investors picked up beaten-down exporters such as Sony (SNE). Shares in Hong Kong's Hang Seng lost 2.3%. Heavyweight HSBC (HBC) plummeted in the wake of its announcement to issue a discounted rights offering and reduce its dividend.

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +7.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +12.80. Stock futures currently point to a slightly higher start for the major indices. As part of an effort to shore up bank balance sheets and restore financial conditions, the government is considering creating multiple investment funds to purchase bad loans and distressed assets, according to The Wall Street Journal. One idea for the public-private financing partnership previously expressed could involve private investment managers that put up capital with additional financing from the government's $700 billion bailout plan. The two sides would share in profits and losses. According to New York Post, Citigroup (C) is looking to create joint ventures that help it shed unwanted business operations. Such a move would contrast with the act of trying to sell assets outright, which has been challenged by tight credit conditions and slow economic activity. Separately, Citigroup is expanding its efforts to assist certain borrowers struggling to stay current in their mortgage payments.

06:13 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +9.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: flat.

06:13 am : Nikkei...7229.72...-50.40...-0.70%. Hang Seng...12033.88...-283.60...-2.30%.

06:13 am : FTSE...3583.27...-42.60...-1.20%. DAX...3706.82...-3.50...-0.10%.


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