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 Post subject: March 27th Friday 2009
PostPosted: Sat Mar 28, 2009 3:46 am 
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Today's trades that were posted in real-time in #FuturesTrades chat room via my IRC user name NihabaAshi. You can review each trade from entry to exit along with commentary and an occasional trading tip because its all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=20&t=153

My Trading Performance: +11.00 Emini ES points

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Down Day For Stocks At End Of Up Week
Wall Street slides Friday at the end of its first 3-week rally in a year.
By Alexandra Twin, CNNMoney.com senior writer
Last Updated: March 27, 2009: 6:01 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Wall Street tumbled Friday at the end of an otherwise upbeat week, stretching the market rally to three straight weeks, for the best run in a year.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) fell 148 points, or 1.9%. The S&P 500 (SPX) index lost 17 points, or 2%. The Nasdaq composite (COMP) lost 42 points, or 2.6%.

All three major gauges rallied more than 20% in just three weeks, but Wall Street pled exhaustion Friday as investors stepped back.

Still, early week gains were enough to boost the weekly tally. The market gauges have now posted gains for three consecutive weeks, the best stretch since May of last year.

While the run could have another 10% to go, it's likely to peter out after that, said Dean Barber, president at Barber Financial Group.

"I think there is momentum here in the short run, but this is the classic bear market rally and investors need to be careful not to fall into the classic bear-market trap," Barber said.

He said that the advance has been based on hope that the recession will soon end because a lot of money has been thrown at the financial sector and the economy. However, fundamentally, the economy remains in bad shape, as do the state of corporate profits.

Financial and technology shares, which led the advance on Thursday, led the retreat on Friday. But declines were broad based and 24 of 30 Dow stocks fell.

President Obama met Friday with executives from JPMorgan Chase (JPM, Fortune 500), Citigroup (C, Fortune 500), Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500) and other large banks to discuss the financial crisis.

The bankers gave their approval of Treasury's plan to strip bad assets off bank balance sheets. They also discussed the Obama administration's recent proposal to overhaul the financial regulation system.

On the downside, executives at JPMorgan and BofA said that March business conditions weakened after a more encouraging start to the year.

Upbeat comments about the first two months of the year from a number of executives at the nation's largest banks helped fuel the recent advance.

Rapid rally: Since falling to more than 12-year lows on March 9, the Dow has gained 18.8% and the S&P 500 had gained 20.6% as of Friday's close. Also on March 9, the Nasdaq touched a more than six-year low. Since then, it has gained 21.8%.

Better-than-forecast economic reports on housing and durable goods orders this week have added to hopes that the economy is closer to turning around. Investors have also responded well to the latest plans from the government to stabilize the financial system.

On Thursday, Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner outlined a huge overhaul of the regulatory system. On Monday, he detailed plans to purge bank balance sheets of up to $1 trillion in bad debt that is limiting lending.

Economic news: Personal income fell 0.2% in February after rising 0.2% in January. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com thought it would fall 0.1%. Personal spending rose 0.2% in February after rising 1% in January. Economists thought it would rise 0.2%.

The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index rose to 57.3 in March from 56.3 in February, versus economists' forecasts for a reading of 56.8.

Company news: Google (GOOG, Fortune 500) said late Thursday that it was cutting just under 200 sales and marketing positions worldwide. It is the second round of layoffs in Google history.

General Motors (GM, Fortune 500) shares gained on published reports that the government could extend the automaker's restructuring deadline, giving it more time to gain concessions from unions and qualify for more taxpayer help.

The Wall Street Journal said that the government could extend the March 31 deadline by 30 days. On Thursday, GM said that 12% of its U.S. workforce has taken its latest buyout offer. However, the company is still looking to work with the union to alter retiree health care benefits, among other things.

Market breadth was negative. On the New York Stock Exchange, losers beat winners three to one on volume of 1.44 billion shares. On the Nasdaq, decliners topped advancers by almost three to one on volume of 2.12 billion shares.

Bonds: Treasury prices fell, raising the yield on the benchmark 10-year note to 2.76% from 2.73% Thursday. Treasury prices and yields move in opposite directions.

Lending rates declined. The 3-month Libor rate fell to 1.22% from 1.23% Thursday, according to Bloomberg.com. The overnight Libor rate fell to 0.28% from 0.29%. Libor is a bank-to-bank lending rate.

Other markets: In global trading, Asian markets mostly ended higher and European markets ended lower.

In currency trading, the dollar gained against the euro and fell against the yen.

U.S. light crude oil for May delivery fell $1.96 to settle at $52.38 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

COMEX gold for June delivery fell $16.90 to settle at $925.30 an ounce.

Yahoo! Finance

4:30 pm : Stocks spent all of Friday's session in the red as participants opted to take profits. The stock market closed with a 2.0% loss amid widespread weakness. However, stocks were able to register a weekly gain of 6.2%.

Financials were the best performing sector for the week, advancing 12.2% during that time. Its gains throughout the week made it the focus of sellers' efforts; financials fell 3.5% this session, which made it the worst performing sector of the day.

Banking stocks were some of the hardest hit as the KBW Banking Index shed 3.3%. Weakness in the group intensified after JPMorgan Chase (JPM 27.40, -1.70) chief executive Jamie Dimon stated in a CNBC interview that March has been a little tougher than prior months.

Weakness in large-cap tech caused the Nasdaq Composite to underperform its counterparts. Intel (INTC 15.42, -0.40) failed to find support after announcing it will issue a $1 billion common stock offering. Given the stock's 25% bounce in the last month, the offering will allow the company to raise the $1 billion by issuing fewer shares. The issue will still prove dilutive to existing shareholders, though.

IBM (IBM 94.15, -4.63) also traded with marked weakness. Its downturn came as investors became fretful that the company's technological and business consulting service could be hurt by dour economic conditions. That concern stemmed from news that Accenture (ACN 27.66, -4.30) lowered its outlook for the full year.

The broad selling effort was carried into commodities trading. May crude oil spent the entire pit session in the red, closing 3.6% lower at $52.38 per barrel. April gold finished the session at $923.20 per ounce, down 1.8%, while silver finished 2.6% lower at $13.26 per ounce.

Despite the broad weakness, there were some advancers. Shares of General Motors (GM 3.62, +0.21) logged a gain, though they were knocked from session highs in the wake of reports indicating the company is offering union members $10 billion in preferred stock at a 9% coupon and $10 billion in cash amortized over 20 years. The report came after earlier reports suggested that GM may be unable to hit its March 31 goal to lock in union concessions as part of the company's restructuring plan.

There was only a bit of economic news for participants to digest this session. February personal income declined -0.2%, while spending increased 0.2%. Both were essentially on par with estimates. Real personal consumption expenditures, which is the main component in GDP forecasts, declined 0.2%.

Without any major economic or earnings reports on the docket for Monday, investors will be spending the weekend ruminating over the developments of the past week. Should investors return Monday intent on buying Friday's dip, it could suggest an improved underlying bias is still present. DJ30 -148.38 NASDAQ -41.80 NQ100 -2.3% R2K -3.7% SP400 -2.5% SP500 -16.92 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 658/2.11 bln/2055 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 720/1.44 bln/2324

3:30 pm : Pessimism in the equity markets carried over into commodities trading. The negative bias, combined with a strong dollar, induced selling pressure in commodities.

May crude oil spent the entire pit session in the red. The futures contracts hit session lows of $51.64 per barrel late in the morning and closed at $52.38 per barrel, down 3.6%.

May natural gas sold off sharply after the open of the pit trade and was never able to recover. The May contract closed at $3.74, down 7.2% for the session. April natural gas contracts expired at the close of the pit trade and finished down 8.4% to $3.62 per contract.

April gold experienced similar selling pressure and sold off soon after the open of the pit trade. April gold hit session lows early in the morning at $919 per ounce and finished the session at $923.20 per ounce, down 1.8%.

May silver finished the session down 2.6% to close at $13.26 per ounce. The May contract hit a session low early in the pit trade at $13.08 per ounce.DJ30 -132.93 NASDAQ -34.80 SP500 -14.21 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 682/1.8 bln/2015 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 754/1.0 bln/2257

3:10 pm : The major indices trade with substantial losses, but have climbed off their lows.

Shares of MGM Mirage (MGM 2.99, -0.10) spiked briefly into positive territory from a loss of 19% after the company announced that it is paying $200 million, including $100 million that was supposed to be provided by Dubai World, to its lenders, which will allow the construction of City Center to continue. The Wall Street Journal reported this morning that Dubai World was backing out of its part of the financing, which may have pushed City Center to the brink of bankruptcy.DJ30 -117.56 NASDAQ -32.20 SP500 -12.30 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 700/1.65 bln/1984 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 792/972 mln/2216

2:30 pm : Stocks have recovered from their session lows, but significant, broad-based losses persist. All 10 major sectors in the S&P 500 remain in the red.

Despite the downturn by stocks and commodities (CRB Commodity Index -2.2%) this session, the U.S. dollar is attracting positive interest. Based on the Dollar Index, the greenback is up 1.2%. The dollar is now up 3.2% over the past two sessions.DJ30 -145.52 NASDAQ -32.99 SP500 -14.53 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 703/1.48 bln/1965 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 756/859 mln/2244

2:00 pm : The stock market recently retreated to fresh session lows after being undercut by rather downbeat comments from JPMorgan Chase (JPM 27.84, -1.26) chief exectutive Jamie Dimon. Dimon stated in a CNBC interview that March has been a little tougher than prior months, though he made no mention of profitability. The company had previously indicated that it was profitable in the first two months of the year.

The financial sector is now down 2.8%. It was down as much as 3.0% in the early going, and actually climbed all the way to the unchange mark, which is where it traded at its session high.

Meanwhile, the KBW Banking Index is down 3.5%.DJ30 -172.68 NASDAQ -38.44 SP500 -17.43 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 626/1.37 bln/2024 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 678/790 mln/2319

1:30 pm : Shares of General Motors (GM 3.59, +0.18) started the session markedly higher, but have since pulled back.

The initial gains came in the face of reports that the company may be unable to hit its March 31 goal to lock in concessions from the company's main union and bondholders, which would help complete the company's restructuring plan.

More recently, CNBC reported that GM is offering union members $10 billion in preferred stock at a 9% coupon and $10 billion in cash amortized over 20 years.DJ30 -115.25 NASDAQ -30.04 SP500 -11.53 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 697/1.25 bln/1933 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 778/709 mln/2182

1:00 pm : Stocks have been under selling pressure since the opening bell. The losses come as participants move to take profits after bidding stocks more than 8% higher during the past four sessions.

The selling effort has been supported by what have mostly been uninspiring headlines.

Though Accenture (ACN 27.76, -4.20) posted upside results for its latest quarter, the company lowered its outlook for the full year. Given the fact that IBM (IBM 92.98, -5.80) offers similar technological and business consulting services as Accenture, IBM is trading with particular weakness, which is undercutting the technology sector (-2.6%) and the Nasdaq Composite.

Intel (INTC 15.40, -0.42) is also trading with weakness after the company announced it will issue a $1 billion common stock offering.

Despite the weakness in large-cap tech names, the Nasdaq 100 is still up 3.7% year-to-date. The Nasdaq 100 is the only major index that is showing a year-to-date gain.

KB Home (KBH 15.03, +0.87) is seeing strong gains this session; the company announced better-than-expected quarterly earnings results earlier today. The news has failed to help lift the homebuilding group, though.

In economic news, February personal income declined -0.2%, while spending increased 0.2%. Both were in stride with estimates. However, real disposable income declined 0.4%, which doesn't bode well for real disposable income. Real PCE, which is the main component in GDP forecasts, declined 0.2%.

Though stocks have been stuck in a funk for the entire session, market watchers continue to watch for a supportive buying effort to come in from the sidelines, which has been the case in recent sessions. DJ30 -131.02 NASDAQ -33.00 SP500 -13.81 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 670/1.14 bln/1926 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 725/644 mln/2240

12:30 pm : Technology is currently trading with a loss of 2.4%, which is the steepest loss of any sector in the S&P 500. Tech's downturn has been exacerbated by weakness in large-cap tech names like Microsoft (MSFT 18.32, -0.51), Apple (AAPL 107.34, -2.53), and Oracle (ORCL 18.14, -0.54).

IBM (IBM 92.98, -5.80) and Intel (INTC 15.49, -0.33) are also trading as laggards within the tech sector. Though there are no specific negative news stories being linked to IBM, many traders assume that the company's technology and consulting services could still come under pressure since Accenture (ACN 27.72, -4.24) lowered its earnings forecast for the year.

Meanwhile, Intel announced it is offering a $1 billion common stock offering, which will prove dilutive to existing shareholders.DJ30 -118.44 NASDAQ -26.33 SP500 -11.67 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 728/1.03 bln/1841 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 759/582 mln/2171

12:00 pm : The major indices continue to trade with widespread weakness. However, there are a few pockets of relative stability.

The railroad stocks of CSX Corp (CSX 27.72, -0.23), Burlington Northern (BNI 63.11, -0.24), and Canadian National (CNI 37.60, -0.58) are seeing relatively limited downside this session; each was upgraded by analysts at Bank of America.

Analysts at Bank of America also upgraded the transportation stocks of JB Hunt (JBHT 25.22, -0.33) and UPS (UPS 50.38, -0.08). They are seeing mixed results, while the broader Dow Jones Transportation Index is trading with a 1.7% decline.DJ30 -98.68 NASDAQ -20.59 SP500 -10.23 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 812/905 mln/1722 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 797/521 mln/2117

11:30 am : The S&P 500 remains in the red, but has been slowly paring its losses. The Dow is largely unchanged from earlier levels.

The Dow's relatively steady loss comes amid weakness in integrated energy giants Exxon Mobil (XOM 70.17, -1.06) and Chevron (CVX 69.17, -1.00). Boeing (BA 37.66, -1.00) is also weighing on the Dow. Its shares have come under pressure amid a Dow Jones report that the company has received more order cancellations.

However, the decline by the S&P 500 has softened as financial stocks have curtailed their losses. Financials are down 0.5% after threatening to break into positive ground. The sector had been down more than 3% in the early going.DJ30 -112.78 NASDAQ -23.95 SP500 -10.41 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 749/780 mln/1716 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 742/452 mln/2132

11:00 am : KB Home (KBH 15.46, +1.30) is spiking higher after posting better-than-exected quarterly earnings results this morning. The news, however, isn't really carrying over to peers; D.R. Horton (DHI 11.05, +0.12) and Pulte Homes (PHM 11.26, -0.24) are trading in mixed fashion, while the S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB 11.48, -0.23) is in the red.

The broader market is also in the red. Stocks have been under pressure since the opening bell. However, the downward move isn't too surprising to many market pundits, given the stock market's 8% week-to-date gain heading into this session.DJ30 -126.80 NASDAQ -27.75 SP500 -12.79 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 655/640 mln/1765 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 636/369 mln/2214

10:30 am : Health care stocks are holding up relatively well against early selling pressure. The health care sector is down just 0.2%.

Amgen (AMGN 52.52, +1.05) and Gilead Sciences (GILD 45.04, +1.10) are providing the most support to the health care sector. However, their strength is being undermined by weakness in big pharma names like Pfizer (PFE 14.13, -0.25), Merck (MRK 27.19, -0.39), Wyeth (WYE 43.19, -0.36), and Schering-Plough (SGP 24.09, -0.33).DJ30 -136.12 NASDAQ -29.14 SP500 -13.61 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 574/465 mln/1784 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 526/271 mln/2282

10:00 am : Stocks continue to show marked weakness as the major indices trade in the red. Traders are also pushing key commodities prices lower.

Crude oil futures prices are down 4.4%. Contracts for May delivery are currently pricing oil at $51.95 per barrel.

Natural gas prices are down 3.7% to $3.88 per April contract. The April contracts expire at the close of pit trading.

Precious metals prices are down markedly. Gold contracts are pricing the yellow metal 1.7% lower at $924.20 per ounce. Silver is being priced at $13.28 per ounce, down 2.5%.

Coupling the weakness of commodities with the downward bias of the broader market, the energy sector and materials sector are seeing stiff selling pressure. The two sectors are down 2.3% and 1.5%, respectively.

The Baltic Dry Index fell for its eleventh consecutive session, dropping 2.1% to close at 1,678. All of its subindices ended lower.

Early movers: Trading up: SNX +19.6%, PLT +13.9%, GM +12.9%, SOLR +11%, LULU +9.1%, FINL +8.5%, BCS-D +7.7%, LYG +7.6%. Trading down: OSIR -24.2%, MGM -14.2%, ACN -13.7%, REXX -13.5%, AEG -11.7%, DHT -11.5%, FCEL -11.2%, PWE -11%, TSL -10.4%, UBS -10.1%, NRF -9.5%, BMR -9.5%, DYAX -9.1%DJ30 -107.60 NASDAQ -26.17 SP500 -13.08 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 556/286 mln/1694 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 511/180 mln/2223

09:40 am : The stock market has opened the session with a sizable loss due to broad-based weakness. Every sector in the S&P 500 is currently in the red.

Financial stocks and energy stocks are leading the early decline. Their sectors are down 3.0% and 2.7%, respectively.

Materials stocks aren't far behind, though. The materials sector is off by 2.2%. Its weakness is largely linked to a drop in aluminum stocks (-3.2%), steel stocks (-3.1%), and diversified metals and miners stocks (-3.1%).

Declining issues outnumber advancers by more than 5-to-1 on the New York Stock Exchange.DJ30 -117.88 NASDAQ -28.28 SP500 -14.02 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 442/124 mln/1682 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 411/103 mln/2208

09:20 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -14.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -27.00. As of the prior session's close, stocks have advanced roughly 8% this week. That, coupled with an absence of positive headline support, is likely to prompt many participants to take profits. As such, stock futures currently point to a lower start for the major indices. The question, though, is whether a supportive bid will emerge to buy any such dip. For now, traders are digesting word that Accenture (ACN) posted upside results for its latest quarter, but lowered its outlook for the full year. Intel (INTC) is issuing a $1 billion common stock offering, which will prove dilutive to existing shareholders. General Motors (GM), according to The Wall Street Journal, is unlikely to have its restructuring plan submitted by the end of the month, but could receive an extension. Market participants are taking a break from all of the speeches made by Fed and Treasury speakers during the last few days. However, investors will be listening for snippets from President Obama's meeting today with some of the nation's top banking executives, as previously announced. Economic data has been uninspiring. February personal spending and income were in-line with expectations.

09:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -12.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -25.50.

The U.S. indices continue to trade with weakness ahead of Friday's opening bell. European stock markets are also showing weakness. Germany's DAX is currently down 1.2%. Allianz (AZ) is a primary laggard. Meanwhile, France's CAC is off by 1.1%. The French index is seeing primary weakness in Total (TOT) and Societe Generale. Decliners outnumber advancing issues in the CAC by 2-to-1. Britain's FTSE is seeing a 0.3% loss amid weakness in materials stocks Anglo American (AAUK) and BHP Billiton (BHP). Shares of BHP were recently downgraded by analysts at Bank of America. Rio Tinto (RTP) is trading with strength, though. The stock continues to benefit from Chinalco's proposal to invest in Rio Tinto. Banks are providing support to the FTSE, though. Lloyds (LYG), HSBC (HBC), and Barclays (BCS) all in the green. Barclays strength follows a Financial Times report that the Financial Services Authority has indicated that Barclays does not need any fresh capital. In economic news, reports indicate the British economy contracted 1.6% during the fourth quarter. Previous readings showed a 1.5% rate of decline. The quarterly decline is reportedly the biggest since 1980. In Asia, the MSCI Asia-Pacific Index closed unchanged as investors were reluctant to make any moves heading into the weekend. The standstill follows strong gains in the prior sessions this week. Japan's Nikkei closed 0.1% lower, which marked a muted end to a strong week. In economic news, prices excluding fresh food were unchanged from a year earlier, the statistics bureau said. Retail sales declined 5.8%, more than the 3% economists predicted. However, Times of London reports Japan is heading back into deflation and analysts are warning that the country could stay there for the next three years. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng closed 0.1% higher amid lower trading volume. China Unicom (CHU) gained, as did CITIC Pacific, which slumped earlier this week. After the close, China Construction Bank posted a 30% drop in fourth quarter profit. In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite closed 0.5% higher.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -10.90. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -25.00. February personal income decreased 0.2%, which is not far off the 0.1% decline that was expected. Meanwhile, the prior reading was revised lower to reflect a 0.2% increase. The prior reading had initially showed a 0.4% increase. Personal spending for February climbed 0.2%, which is on par with expectations. The prior reading was revised higher to reflect a 1.0% increase, up from a 0.6% increase. The PCE Deflator for February is up 1.0% year-over-year, which exceeds the 0.8% increase that was widely expected. The prior reading was revised modestly higher to show a 0.8% increase. Core personal consumption expenditures for February were up 0.2% month-over-month, which is in step with expectations and unchanged from the prior month's upwardly revised reading. Year-over-year, core PCE is up 1.8%, exceeding the 1.6% increase that was expected. The prior reading showed a 1.7% increase, up from 1.6%.

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -11.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -23.30. Stocks closed near their session highs Thursday, but the carryover has stalled a bit in Friday's premarket trading as stock futures currently lag fair value by a fair margin. There are only a few new earnings reports to assess this morning. Among them, Accenture (ACN) posted following the prior session's close second quarter earnings of $0.63 per share, which is slightly better than the $0.62 per share consensus estimate. However, Accenture lowered its earnings forecast for the full year; the company now expects full-year earnings to range from $2.60 to $2.67 per share, down from $2.78 to $2.85 per share. Shares of ACN are trading rougly 10% lower at $28.80 per share in premarket action. The February personal income and spending data is due at 8:30 AM ET, while the revised University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey is due at 10:00 AM ET.

06:27 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -10.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -20.80.

06:27 am : Nikkei...8626.97...-9.40...-0.10%. Hang Seng...14119.50...+10.50...+0.10%.

06:27 am : FTSE...3936.80...+11.60...+0.30%. DAX...4252.37...-7.00...-0.20%.


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