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 Post subject: March 26th Thursday 2009
PostPosted: Thu Mar 26, 2009 7:13 pm 
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Today's trades that were posted in real-time in #FuturesTrades chat room via my IRC user name NihabaAshi are archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=20&t=152

My Trading Performance: +34.75 Emini ES points

-------------------------



Recharging the Rally
Stocks surge, as the March market run shows its legs.
By Alexandra Twin, CNNMoney.com senior writer
Last Updated: March 26, 2009: 6:04 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Stocks surged Thursday, extending the rally that has propelled the major gauges up more than 20% each in just 2-1/2 weeks.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) rose 175 points, or 2.3%, and the S&P 500 (SPX) index rose 18 points, or 2.3%. The Nasdaq composite (COMP) rose 58 points, or 3.8%, and closed in positive territory for the year.

The advance was broad based, with 28 out of 30 Dow issues climbing, led by General Motors (GM, Fortune 500), Alcoa (AA, Fortune 500), Hewlett-Packard (HPQ, Fortune 500), Microsoft (MSFT, Fortune 500), Intel (INTC, Fortune 500) and American Express (AXP, Fortune 500). But other big bank stocks slipped, with the influential financial sector flat on the session.

Best Buy (BBY, Fortune 500)'s better-than-expected earnings report fired up the retail sector.

Since the Dow and S&P 500 fell to 12-year lows on March 9, stocks have been on a tear. As of Thursday's close, the Dow is up 21%, the S&P 500 is up 23% and the Nasdaq is up 25%. But only the Nasdaq is up slightly year-to-date and the Dow and S&P 500 remain below early-February levels.

"The million dollar question is 'Is this real?,'" Kenny Landgraf, principal and founder at Kenjol Capital Management said. "From a technical standpoint, there are buyers coming into the market, so you have the army behind you, which is good."

He said that the recent spate of less- terrible-than-expected economic news was also hopeful, including Wednesday's better-than-expected readings on durable goods orders and new home sales. Investors have also reacted well to the latest government attempts to stabilize the banks.

"At some point, people decide it's time to put money back to work," he said. "But there's still a sense of not wanting to get tricked again after last fall."

Stocks supposedly hit bottom twice before in the current bear market, in both November and October. But Wall Street ended up giving back all the gains accrued following those bottoms and moving even lower.

"This is a bear market rally, not something more," said Drew Kanaly, chairman and CEO at Kanaly Trust. "In bear markets, 25% or 50% rallies are not unheard of and investors should use this as an opportunity to raise more cash."

He said that the recent economic news has only been better because year-ago results were "pathetic."

Friday's main news item is the February reading on income and spending. Personal income is expected to have fallen 0.1% after rising 0.4% in the previous month, according to economists surveyed by Briefing.com. Personal spending is expected to have risen 0.3% after climbing 0.6% in the previous month.

The revised reading on consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan is also due.

Washington: Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner outlined a massive overhaul of the regulatory system in the wake of the financial meltdown of the last 18 months. Speaking before the House Financial Services Committee, he said the changes are needed to repair a system that has "proved too unstable and fragile."

Changes include having a single regulator oversee the biggest financial firms and requiring large hedge funds to register with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Any such changes need Congressional approval. (Full story)

Earlier in the week Geithner and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke made the case for broader powers to regulate non-bank financial institutions like insurer AIG (AIG, Fortune 500).

On Monday, Treasury introduced its plan to purge bank balance sheets of up to $1 trillion in bad assets that are limiting lending and prolonging the recession.

Company news: Best Buy (BBY, Fortune 500) reported a 23% drop in fiscal fourth-quarter earnings versus a year earlier. Excluding charges, the retailer earned $1.61 per share, versus economists' forecasts for $1.40 per share.

The company also forecast full-year earnings in a range of $2.50 to $2.90 per share versus estimates for a gain of $2.45 per share. Shares rallied 13%.

General Motors (GM, Fortune 500) said that 7,500 union workers, or 12% of its U.S. factory workforce, took its latest buyout offer as it continues to cut costs in an effort to gain additional federal aid money. GM gained 14%.

Google (GOOG, Fortune 500) said it was cutting just under 200 positions worldwide, with the cuts coming in its sales and marketing divisions. It is only the Internet behemoth's second round of layoffs in its history.

Market breadth was positive. On the New York Stock Exchange, winners beat losers almost four to one on volume of 1.81 billion shares. On the Nasdaq, advancers topped decliners by over four to one on volume of 2.65 billion shares.

Economy: The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment rose to 652,000 from a revised 644,000 the prior week. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com thought sales would have risen to 650,000.

Continuing claims, a measure of people who have been receiving unemployment for a week or more, rose to an all-time high of 5.56 million.

Fourth-quarter GDP shrank at an annual rate of 6.3% in the fourth quarter of last year, versus an earlier reading of 6.2%. The decline was a 26-year low. Economists thought GDP would shrink by a 6.6% annual rate.

Bonds: Treasury prices rose, lowering the yield on the benchmark 10-year note to 2.73% from 2.79% Wednesday. Treasury prices and yields move in opposite directions.

Both stock and bond investors were also reacting positively to the conclusion of a 7-year Treasury note auction, which was seen as showing good demand. This was a relief after a 5-year note auction Wednesday was seen as being a bit on the weak side.

Lending rates were unchanged. The 3-month Libor rate held steady at 1.23%, where it stood Wednesday, while the overnight Libor rate held steady at 0.29%, according to Bloomberg.com. Libor is a bank-to-bank lending rate.

Other markets: In global trading, Asian and European markets both ended higher.

In currency trading, the dollar gained against the euro and the yen.

U.S. light crude oil for May delivery rose $1.57 to settle at $54.34 a barrel.

COMEX gold for May delivery fell $1.70 to settle at $940.90 an ounce.

Yahoo! Finance

4:30 pm : The major indices closed near session highs in a broad-based advance. Some better-than-expected corporate earnings and a satisfactory Treasury auction helped participants build on the prior session's gains. The latest batch of economic data was met with a muted response.

The major indices spent the entire session in positive territory, undeterred by choppy trading. Gains were widespread as all 10 major sectors in the S&P 500 closed the session higher.

Contrary to recent form, the gains came without leadership from the financial sector. Financials lagged for the entire session, frequently trading in the red. Financials were able to close 1.0% higher, though.

Tech (+4.0%) was one of the session's strongest performers. Large-cap tech names underpinned strength in the Nasdaq Composite, which outperformed the other headline indices for the entire session.

A better-than-expected earnings announcement and upbeat forecast from Best Buy (BBY 37.67, +4.21) breathed fresh air into investors, helping to further improve spirits ahead of the opening bell. Retailers responded by advancing 4.4%, supporting a 4.0% gain in the consumer discretionary sector.

Stocks spiked in early afternoon trading following the results from a 7-year Treasury Note auction. The satisfactory turnout helped moderate concern regarding the government's cost of capital and investors' risk appetites which stemmed from Wednesday's weaker 5-year Note auction.

Economic data did little to disrupt trading. The final fourth quarter GDP reading showed a 6.3% annualized rate of contraction, which wasn't as bad as the 6.6% decline that was expected.

Weekly initial jobless claims climbed 8,000 from the prior week to 652,000. However, that was essentially in-line with expectations. Continuing claims climbed more than expected to a record high of 5.56 million, though.

Several Regional Fed Presidents gave speeches today. The speeches covered a range of topics, but many believe the economic malaise will last for a few more months.

Treasury Secretary Geithner testified before the House Financial Services Committee that an overhaul of financial regulation is needed. The changes would aim to limit risk in order to prevent future financial crises. DJ30 +174.75 NASDAQ +58.05 NQ100 +3.6% R2K +4.4% SP400 +3.9% SP500 +18.98 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 2206/2.15 bln/509 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2435/1.81 bln/615

3:30 pm : Stocks continue to chop along, but are benefiting from some late buying interest as participants head into the final leg of trading.

Traders sent several key commodities higher in pit trading. Gold prices made a fractional advance to close at $940.00 per ounce, while May silver contracts closed at $13.62 per ounce, up 1.3%. Silver prices rallied in afternoon trading to climb as high as $13.75 per ounce.

Crude oil futures contracts showed strength throughout the session; May crude oil contracts closed with oil priced 3.0% higher at $54.35 per barrel.

However, natural gas contracts for April delivery closed pit trading priced 9% lower at $4.02 apiece. Contracts had traded as low as $3.89 per contract, following bearish inventory data. The contracts expire at the close of pit trading Friday. DJ30 +135.01 NASDAQ +39.20 SP500 +14.79 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1999/2.05 bln/674 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2250/1.21 bln/788

3:00 pm : There has been a dearth of earnings announcements in recent weeks. Those companies that have reported have generally put up disappointing results. With that in mind, many investors cheered a batch of upbeat announcements from Best Buy (BBY 37.14, +3.68), Texas Industries (TXI 25.43, +4.95), SAIC (SAI 18.06, +0.37), GameStop (GME 26.04, -0.80), and Red Hat (RHT 17.28, +2.28) ahead of this session's opening bell. Each of the companies posted better-than-expected earnings per share results.

Paychex (PAYX 25.52, +1.90) also reported quarterly results ahead of this session. The company announced earnings that were in-line with expectations. That news has been treated positively by participants.DJ30 +83.71 NASDAQ +31.72 SP500 +8.27 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1852/1.85 bln/795 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2084/1.08 bln/924

2:30 pm : Financials are back in the red as they trade with a 1.2% loss. Every other major sector is sporting a gain.

The weakness in financials stems from a downturn in diversified banks (-4.4%) and diversified financial services (-3.3%) stocks. Wells Fargo (WFC 15.69, -0.73), JPMorgan Chase (JPM 27.92, -0.64), and Goldman Sachs (GS 110.18, -2.77) are the primary laggards in the sector, however.DJ30 +112.70 NASDAQ +38.37 SP500 +11.21 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1952/1.69 bln/676 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2233/976 mln/768

2:00 pm : After climbing to session highs, the major indices see a bit of a pullback, but are still well above the pre-Treasury auction levels.

Separately, Minneapolis Fed President Stern said some financial institutions could be too big to manage effectively. In addition, he doesn't see serious flaws in mark-to-market accounting regulations.DJ30 +131.90 NASDAQ +44.95 SP500 +13.98 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1979/1.50 bln/645 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2273/868 mln/712

1:30 pm : The major averages climbed to fresh session highs following reassuring results from a 7-year Treasury Note auction. The 2.5 bid-to-cover ratio is being viewed as strong overall participation, which should moderate some of the concerns that followed Wednesday's weaker 5-year Note auction.

The weak auction yesterday had undercut the session's gains as participants became concerned about investors' risk appetites and the government's cost of capital.

All 10 sectors in the S&P 500 are now trading higher, including financials. Financials had traded in the red for much of the session, despite opening with a solid gain. The sector is now up 0.1%.DJ30 +154.12 NASDAQ +47.82 SP500 +16.45 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 2017/1.39 bln/586 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2376/811 mln/617

1:00 pm : Stocks are sporting solid gains even though action has been choppy thus far. What's more, the advance has come without help from the financial sector (-1.4%).

The major indices began the session in higher ground as participants extended the prior session's late rally. The upbeat tone was undeterred by the latest batch of economic data, which wasn't pretty. The final fourth quarter GDP reading showed a 6.3% annualized rate of contraction, but that wasn't as bad as the 6.6% decline that was widely forecast. The revised reading had showed a 6.2% decline.

The latest weekly initial jobless claims climbed 8,000 from the prior week to 652,000, which was essentially in-line with expectations. However, continuing claims climbed more than expected to 5.56 million, which marks a new record high.

Given the slow flow of earnings announcements in recent weeks and the headwinds facing many companies, bullish investors welcomed news that Best Buy (BBY 37.77, +4.31) posted better-than-expected quarterly earnings results, and issued an upbeat outlook. Strength in shares of BBY is providing leadership to the consumer discretionary sector, which is up 3.1%. Retailers, specifically, are up 4.5%.

Large-cap tech stocks are also trading with strength. That is helping the Nasdaq Composite outperform the other headline indices.

Automakers are seeing strong gains amid word that the government's auto task force is likely to request more money for companies. Ford (F 2.89, +0.12) is seeing a more limited advance as reports indicate the company is ready to divest its Volvo unit at a huge loss.

Results from a $24 billion 7-year Treasury Note auction will be unveiled soon (1:00 PM ET). Typically the auctions don't cause much of a stir. However, a weak showing in Wednesday's 5-year Note auction prompted participants to ponder the implications of changing risk appetites, which undercut the gains the stock market had made during that session.

Treasury Secretary Geithner is being peppered with questions at a testimony before the House Financial Services Committee. Geithner is calling for an overhaul of financial regulations. DJ30 +85.70 NASDAQ +33.85 SP500 +8.16 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1864/1.21 bln/713 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2107/710 mln/845

12:30 pm : The S&P 500 recently tested earlier session highs, but has since stalled a bit. The Dow is also taking a breather after moving slightly above its intraday highs. However, the Nasdaq continues its ascent as it registers fresh session highs with a sense of conviction.DJ30 +110.32 NASDAQ +40.42 SP500 +12.44 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1928/1.08 bln/614 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2240/646 mln/712

12:00 pm : Trading has been rather choppy as stocks trade with mixed results. Still, the major indices are sporting solid gains.

The Nasdaq Composite continues to outshine its counterparts. The advance is largely owed to large-cap tech stocks, like Microsoft (MSFT 18.33, +0.45), Intel (INTC 15.53, +0.59), and Google (GOOG 357.41, +13.34).DJ30 +62.13 NASDAQ +32.23 SP500 +6.94 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1789/909 mln/724 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2029/561 mln/891

11:30 am : Following a rather strong pullback, stocks are reclaiming gains. The strongest advances are being made by consumer discretionary stocks (+3.1%), industrials (+2.4%), materials stocks (+2.3%), and technology (+2.2%) stocks.

Financial stocks continue to trade as laggards as they log the poorest performance of any major sector in the S&P 500. Financials are currently down 1.1%.

Telecom (-1.0%), utilities (-0.7%), and consumer staples (-0.5%) stocks are also trading in the red.DJ30 +42.93 NASDAQ +29.48 SP500 +6.92 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1784/775 mln/693 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2028/484 mln/863

11:00 am : Treasury Secretary Geithner is currently presenting a testimony to the House Financial Services Committee. Geithner is calling for an overhaul of financial regulations, which would place stiffer standards on many players in the financial sector. New standards would be aimed at helping protect against future financial crises.

There are several other notable speakers on today's docket.

Atlanta Fed President Lockhart gave a speech this morning in France. Lockhart stated that the recession will last for a few more months.

Dallas Fed President Fisher is scheduled to speak at a forum at noon, while Richmond Fed President Lacker will be a keynote speaker at a luncheon starting at 12:40 PM ET. Minneapolis Fed President Stern speaks at a luncheon at 1:00 PM ET. DJ30 +68.18 NASDAQ +28.85 SP500 +7.86 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1703/643 mln/722 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1996/412 mln/880

10:30 am : Stocks of retailers are currently outperforming the broader market by a considerable margin. The industry group is currently up 3.0%, thanks to strength in shares of Best Buy (BBY 38.35, +4.89).

Best Buy's advance this session follows news that the company posted better-than-expected quarterly earnings results, and issued an upbeat outlook. That has shares of BBY putting together their best single-session performance by percent in approximately two weeks; the stock logged a 13.5% advance on March 10.

Shares of BBY are currently up more than 30% year-to-date, and up more than 130% from the multiyear lows they set on November 21, 2008. DJ30 +13.07 NASDAQ +17.75 SP500 +2.79 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1610/451 mln/735 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1821/307 mln/1002

10:00 am : Both stocks and commodities are trading with solid gains in the early going.

The stock market quickly climbed to a gain of more than 1.5%, but has since pulled back amid selling in financial stocks. The financial sector is currently down 1.2%, even though it started the session with a solid gain.

Crude oil futures prices are currently up 1.9% to $53.80 per barrel. Crude prices are now up more than 20% year-to-date.

Natural gas prices are under a bit of pressure ahead of the latest weekly inventory report (10:30 AM ET). Prices for April natural gas contracts are currently down 0.8% to $4.38 each.

Gold and silver are both trading higher. Gold prices are up 0.5% to $941.00 per ounce. Meanwhile, silver prices are up 1.0% to $13.57 per ounce.

Early movers: Trading up: CRTX +33.3%, CTRN +25.9%, STP +18%, YGE +17.1%, APAC +16.7%, TXI +16.4%, CONN +14.5%, RHT +12.5%, BBY +11.5%, SOL +10.7%, PDS +10.6%, LYG +10.5%, CENX +10.2%, BCS +10.2%, LDK +10%, HGG +9.8%. Trading down: PLD -8.7%, FXP -7.4%, HOO -7.1%, WX -6.6%, CBG -6.1%, SCO -5%DJ30 +58.31 NASDAQ +23.53 SP500 +6.91 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1650/296 mln/570 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1920/219 mln/801

09:45 am : Stocks are off to a strong start. Unlike recent sessions, financials aren't providing much leadership. Instead, financials are actually lagging the broader market as they trade with a 0.4% gain.

Technology is showing particular strength as it trades 2.3% higher. Gains within the sector are widespread. Tech's advance is helping the Nasdaq outpace the other headline indices.DJ30 +95.26 NASDAQ +29.37 SP500 +11.34 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1726/170 mln/403 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2231/129 mln/448

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +6.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +15.00. Stock futures point to a positive start for the major indices, which would extend the prior session's late rebound. Best Buy (BBY) has helped support premarket optimism by reporting better-than-expected quarterly earnings and an upside forecast. That has its stock trading almost 12% higher at $37.35 per share in premarket action. Though the latest batch of economic data wasn't pretty, it didn't instill a fear in participants either. The final fourth quarter GDP reading showed a 6.3% annualized rate of contraction, which isn't quite as bad as the 6.6% decline that was widely forecast. Job markets remain tight as the latest weekly initial jobless claims climbed higher, though they were essentially in-line with what was expected. Continuing claims climbed to another new record high. There are several Fed speakers scheduled to give speeches today, but Treasury Secretary Geithner will attract most of the press as he testifies before the House Financial Services Committee about regulation (10:00 AM ET). Though typically overlooked, participants will take note of a $24 billion 7-year Treasury Note auction, which is scheduled for this afternoon (1:00 PM ET). Given the weak showing in Wednesday's 5-year Note auction, participants speculate that investors' risk appetite may be changing.

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +6.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +15.00. U.S. stock futures continue to suggest a positive bias ahead of the opening bell. Sentiment is mixed in Europe, however. Germany's DAX is currently trading just above the unchanged mark, while Britain's FTSE is trading just below the unchanged mark. According to reports, British retail sales plunged more than expected in February. Consumers abroad are being challenged by many of the same macro headwinds as consumers in the U.S. Meanwhile, France's CAC is down 0.5%. AXA (AXA) is a primary laggard in the CAC; it has traded lower in each of the past three sessions. Action in Asia is more upbeat. The MSCI Asia-Pacific Index closed 1.5% higher amid broad-based gains. Japan's Nikkei closed 1.8% higher as exporters gained in the wake of better-than-expected U.S. durable goods orders and new home sales data. Separately, Morgan Stanley (MS) and MUFG (MTU) confirmed they are combining their Japanese brokerage businesses. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng closed 3.4% higher, led by Industrial & Commercial Bank of China after Goldman Sachs extended its lockup period. In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite closed 3.1% higher.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +4.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +11.50. Stock futures have pulled back from earlier levels in the wake of the latest batch of economic data. The final fourth quarter GDP reading showed a 6.3% annualized rate of contraction, which is down just a bit from the 6.2% rate of decline. The consensus estimate called for a 6.6% rate of contraction. Personal consumption during the fourth quarter remained unchanged from the prior reading, showing a 4.3% decline. It was expected to decline 4.4%. The GDP Price Index remained unchanged and in-line with expectations as it showed an increase of 0.5%. Initial jobless claims for the week ending March 21 totaled 652,000, up 8,000 from the prior week. The latest claims were essentially in-line with the 650,000 claims that were expected. Continuing claims totaled 5.56 million, up from roughly 5.44 million the week before. Continuing claims now stand at a new record high.

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +8.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +13.80. Stock futures indicate a positive bias ahead of the opening bell. The upbeat tone suggests participants are looking to build on the prior session's late rally. Earnings news remains slow, though ConAgra (CAG) announced third quarter adjusted earnings of $0.40 per share, which is $0.04 better than the consensus of $0.36 per share. ConAgra still expects earnings for 2009 to be slightly above $1.50 per share, which is above the consensus estimate of $1.47 per share. Best Buy (BBY) reported adjusted earnings of $1.61 per share, which is better than the $1.40 per share that Wall Street was expecting. The company expects earnings in fiscal 2010 to range from $2.50 to $2.90 per share, which exceeds the current consensus estimate of $2.47 per share. Participants await the latest weekly jobless claims and the final fourth quarter GDP reading; both are due at the bottom of the hour (8:30 AM ET). Additional insight into economic conditions may be derived from the several Fed speakers who are scheduled to give speeches today. Treasury Secretary Geithner will testify before the House Financial Services Committee (10:00 AM ET). The Wall Street Journal reports Geithner will call for changes in how the government oversees risk-taking. A $24 billion 7-year Treasury Note auction is scheduled for this afternoon (1:00 PM ET). The auction will be closely watched, given the weak showing in Wednesday's 5-year Note auction.

07:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +6.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +10.50.

06:47 am : Nikkei...8636.33...+156.30...+1.80%. Hang Seng...14108.98...+486.90...+3.60%.

06:47 am : FTSE...3911.80...+11.60...+0.30%. DAX...4253.82...+30.50...+0.70%.


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