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 Post subject: March 24th Tuesday 2009
PostPosted: Tue Mar 24, 2009 8:43 pm 
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Today's trades that were posted in real-time in #FuturesTrades chat room via my IRC user name NihabaAshi are archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=20&t=150

My Trading Performance: +15.50 Emini ES points

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Wall Street: Retreat after rally
Stocks slump, led by tech and banking shares, one day after a big advance.
By Alexandra Twin, CNNMoney.com senior writer
Last Updated: March 24, 2009: 6:34 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Technology and bank shares led a selloff Tuesday, as investors stepped back after the previous session's big rally, Wall Street's best in four months.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) lost 115 points, or 1.5%. The S&P 500 (SPX) index lost 17 points, or 2%. The Nasdaq composite (COMP) lost 40 points, or 2.5%.

Stocks slumped in the morning as investors eyed the AIG hearing in Washington, cut losses in the afternoon and then slipped again near the close.

On Monday, the Dow and Nasdaq each gained 6.8% and the S&P 500 rose 7.1% on Treasury's plan to buy billions in bad bank assets and a surprise rise in existing home sales.

"Yesterday was euphoria and today people are getting more rational and looking behind and beyond the bank plan," said Kevin D. Mahn, managing director at Hennion & Walsh.

He said that, in the long term, the prospects for a stock market recovery are good. But, in the shorter term, the volatility is not going to go away.

However, considering the span of Monday's rally, it was "pretty encouraging" that Wall Street wasn't seeing steeper losses Tuesday, said Ron Kiddoo, chief investment officer at Cozad Asset Management.

Since tumbling to 12-year lows two weeks ago, stocks - as represented by the broad S&P 500 - rallied 18% through Monday's close. The index also surpassed 800, a key resistance level that traders have been watching.

Kiddoo said the lows from two weeks ago were probably a bear market bottom, but market pros are going to remain skeptical after previous "bottoms" proved to be just ledges along the side of the cliff.

"Longer term, I think the lows are in, but we could still retest them," he said. "The market is poised to move higher, but it's going to need another significant catalyst. Otherwise, we'll just drift lower."

Wednesday focus: Investors will be digesting President Obama's televised address from Tuesday night, the second of his presidency.

Additionally, a number of economic reports are due in the morning.

February new home sales are expected to have fallen to a seasonally-adjusted 300,000 unit rate from a 309,000 unit rate in January. Investors will be looking to see if the report mirrors the trend of the existing home sales report from Monday, which showed a surprise rise.

February durable goods orders are expected to have fallen 2.5% after falling 5.2% in the prior month. Durable goods orders excluding transportation are expected to have fallen 2% after falling 2.5% in January.

The government's weekly crude oil inventories report is also due in the morning.

Last week, the Federal Reserve announced it was pumping another trillion into the economy to try to get credit flowing, including $300 billion to buy long-term Treasurys. The N.Y. Fed Bank will begin buying the securities Wednesday.

AIG: Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner testified Tuesday about the government's bailout of American International Group.

The government has put more than $180 billion into AIG in an attempt to keep it afloat after it was deemed "too big to fail," due to the breadth of its businesses.

Both Geithner and Bernanke told the House Financial Services Committee that AIG is evidence that the U.S. government needs to have broader power over non-bank financial institutions.

Bernanke essentially said that AIG would have had a less difficult six months if the government had been allowed to regulate or takeover the insurer in September, when the extent of its problems became clear. (Full story)

AIG has been criticized recently for giving out millions in bonuses even as it was taking bailout money. On Tuesday, Bernanke said the Fed wanted to sue over the bonuses, but was discouraged from doing so. Last week, the House rushed through legislation that would have taxed the bonuses. But interest in the bill has cooled, as many employees have returned the bonuses. (Full story)

AIG (AIG, Fortune 500) shares fell 6%.

Financial sector: On Monday, Treasury rolled out its much-anticipated plan to purge bank balance sheets of as much as $1 trillion in sour assets that are limiting lending and prolonging the recession.

The news helped spark a massive rally in bank shares and, in turn, the broader market, as investors hoped that the plan would help stabilizing the financial sector. Economists say stabilizing the banking system is critical to stabilizing the economy.

However, critics say the plan still doesn't resolve the issue of how to value the bad assets so as to establish a price that is palatable to both the sellers and potential buyers.

Financial shares slipped Tuesday afternoon, with Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500), Citigroup (C, Fortune 500), JPMorgan Chase (JPM, Fortune 500) and Wells Fargo (WFC, Fortune 500) all declining. The KBW Bank (BKX) index fell 7.3%.

Among other stock movers, a variety of tech shares slipped, including Intel (INTC, Fortune 500), Broadcom (BRCM), Yahoo (YHOO, Fortune 500) and Applied Materials (AMAT, Fortune 500).

Market breadth was negative. On the New York Stock Exchange, losers topped winners two to one on volume of 1.65 billion shares. On the Nasdaq, decliners topped advancers two to one on volume of 2.03 billion shares.

Bonds: Treasury prices dipped, raising the yield on the benchmark 10-year note to 2.70%, up from 2.66% late Monday. Treasury prices and yields move in opposite directions.

Lending rates were little changed. The 3-month Libor rate ticked up slightly to 1.23% from 1.22% on Monday, while the overnight Libor rate held steady at 0.29%, according to Bloomberg.com. Libor is a bank-to-bank lending rate.

Other markets: In global trading, Asian markets rallied and European markets were mixed.

In currency trading, the dollar gained against the euro and fell against the yen.

U.S. light crude oil for May delivery rose 18 cents to settle at $53.98 a barrel.

COMEX gold for May delivery fell $29.10 to settle at $924.70 an ounce.

Yahoo! Finance

4:30 pm : Stocks spent virtually the entire session trading with losses as participants moved to take profits following the prior session's surge. A midsession rebound by financials attempted to help the broader market move into positive territory, but a rekindled selling effort ultimately caused stocks to close at session lows with a sizable loss.

Despite gains in Asia and some mixed action in Europe, the major indices were unable to follow through from Monday's near 7% surge. Instead, stocks opened the session with broad-based losses as a lack of news or data left the direction of stocks up to the whims of traders.

Financials initially came under the most pressure, but rallied from a loss of more than 4% to briefly sport a gain. That helped the S&P 500 and the Dow move into positive territory as well. However, sellers redoubled their effort and the financial sector finished at session lows with a 6.5% loss. The broader market also finished at lows.

With financials under pressure, the broader market was left without a clear leader. In turn, all 10 sectors finished lower.

Energy closed with a 2.2% loss. Stocks in the sector were unable to benefit from a rebound in crude oil futures prices. Crude contract prices spent the majority of the session in negative territory, but mustered enough strength to close pit trading 0.5% higher at $54.05 per barrel.

Tech finished 1.6% lower, but steeper drops in large-cap names like Microsoft (MSFT 17.93, -0.40) and Intel (INTC 15.01, -0.51) hampered the Nasdaq, which underperformed its counterparts for the entire session.

The benchmark 10-year Treasury Note closed 13 ticks lower. It had been showing greater weakness, but trimmed losses when news reports indicated the New York Fed will begin purchasing Treasuries Wednesday.

In other news, reports indicate the SEC is considering modifying its uptick rules. Separate reports suggest major exchanges like the New York Stock Exchange and the Nasdaq are urging such changes.

Fed Chairman Bernanke and Treasury Secretary Geithner were put at the mercy of a House Financial Services Committee hearing regarding the rescue of AIG (AIG 1.41, -0.07). The table pounding by committee members appeared to be little more than grandstanding as Bernanke and Geithner expressed their own frustrations and opinions regarding executive compensation, efforts to protect the economy, risk-taking constraints. DJ30 -115.65 NASDAQ -37.18 SP500 -16.57 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 793/2.02 bln/1872 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 917/1.65 bln/2144

3:30 pm : May crude oil finished the session on a positive note after spending almost the entire session in negative territory. The May contracts hit session lows in the morning at $52.45 per barrel, but closed at $54.05 per barrel, up 0.5%.

April natural gas traded lower in the morning, but was able to recover throughout the session. April natural gas traded as low as $4.20 before 8:00 ET and hit a session high of $4.38 just before the close. The contracts settled at $4.35 per contract, up 1.2%.

Unlike the energy commodities, precious metals were not able to recover from their early losses. However, after the close of pit trading, precious metals attracted buyers after the Fed announced specific Treasury contracts which the government would purchase.

April gold futures traded at session lows of $916.90 per ounce early in the morning. April gold finished at down 3.0% to $923.80 per ounce.

May silver futures contracts finished a weak pit session at $13.36 per ounce, down 3.7%. DJ30 -66.03 NASDAQ -28.00 SP500 -10.25 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 868/1.7 bln/1791 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1066/1.1 bln/1981

3:00 pm : Stocks continue to chop along. Financials have extended their losses and are now down 1.8%. Financial stocks actually broke into positive territory midafternoon, but were unable to find support upon reaching higher ground.

Materials stocks have reversed this morning's losses to trade with a 0.8% gain. Materials are now the best performing sector this session. Still, this session lacks a clear leader.

Separately, Kansas City Fed President Hoenig stated that deflation is near the bottom of the [Fed's] priority list, according to Dow Jones. Hoenig also stated that the economy will recover, but the timing of such a recovery is unclear.DJ30 -37.12 NASDAQ -24.26 SP500 -6.89 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 928/1.56 bln/1687 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1197/1.03 bln/1836

2:30 pm : Trading is choppy as all three of the major indices remain in the red. Weakness has extended to small- and mid-cap stocks, too; the Russell 2000 Small Cap Index is down 1.8%, and the S&P 400 Mid-Cap Index is down 0.7%.

Treasuries are paring their losses after steadily declining throughout the session. The benchmark 10-year Treasury Note was recently down more than 20 ticks, but is now down 11 ticks. According to reports, the New York Fed will tenatively begin purchasing Treasuries Wednesday. DJ30 -21.67 NASDAQ -19.39 SP500 -4.63 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 962 /1.42 bln/1646 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1269/939 mln/1760

2:00 pm : The stock market has fallen further into the red. However, overall action remains improved from earlier trading. At the beginning of the session, every sector in the S&P 500 was grappling with marked losses. Now, consumer staples stocks (+0.1%), materials (+0.2%), and industrials (+0.7%) are all in the green, while many of the other sectors trade well above their session lows.

One exception has been the health care sector. Health care is trading near its worst levels of the session; it is down 0.9%. Within the sector, biotech (-2.5%) and managed health care (-2.9%) are leading losses. Health care facilities (+3.5%) are offsetting the decline, though.DJ30 -19.28 NASDAQ -20.02 SP500 -4.47 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 908/1.31 bln/1667 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1216/859 mln/1790

1:30 pm : The Dow Jones Industrial Average has broken into positive ground and is now trading with a modest gain. The S&P 500 followed the Dow into positive territory, but was unable to sustain the move and has since slipped back into the red to trade with a fractional loss.

The Dow's move into the green comes thanks to Boeing (BA 36.54, +1.04), DuPont (DD 22.99, +0.66), and Chevron (CVX 69.65, +0.50).

However, the Nasdaq continues to underperform its counterparts. The Nasdaq's decline remains rooted in weakness in large-cap tech names like Microsoft (MSFT 18.11, -0.22) and Intel (INTC 15.24, -0.28).DJ30 +10.50 NASDAQ -13.36 SP500 -0.95 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 979/1.19 bln/1590 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1315/795 mln/1676

1:05 pm : Participants are taking profits this session. The decision is hardly surprising considering the S&P 500 spiked some 7% in the prior session.

The downward move by stocks has been rather broad-based, and has kept the major indices in the red for the entire session. However, stocks are paring their losses as many make their ways to their best levels of the session.

Financials had been seeing some of the most pressure. After being down more than 4%, but the sector has realigned itself with several other sectors. Financial stocks are currently down 0.9%, while utilities (-1.6%), energy (-0.9%), and technology (-0.6%) also show weakness.

Despite the session's broad declines, General Electric (GE 10.75, +0.32) is providing support to the major indices. Even though the stock has traded in similar fashion to financial stocks, GE has helped push the industrials sector into the green. Industrials are up 0.5% to their best level of the session. According to reports, analysts from Deutsche Bank believe GE will not be forced to raise additional external funding.

Official corporate news has been slow. The January Home Price Index was the only item of broad appeal on the economic calendar. According to the index, home prices in January increased 1.7% month-over-month, besting the 0.9% decline that was expected.

With corporate and economic news lacking, most headlines are being driven by the efforts of federal agencies and entities. According to reports, the SEC is considering modifying uptick rules, which could soften pressure from short sellers. Separate reports suggest major exchanges like the New York Stock Exchange and the Nasdaq are urging the SEC to implement such a rule change.

Fed Chairman Bernanke and Treasury Secretary Geithner are enduring a question and answer session at a House Financial Services Committee meeting regarding the rescue of AIG (AIG 1.48, +0.00).

Bernanke said that goals remain to protect the economy and preserve financial stability, and to position AIG to repay its investment as quickly as possible. Bernanke went on to say AIG has voluntarily limited certain salary, bonuses, and other types of compensation for 2008 and 2009.

Geithner voiced frustration over AIG not just about the company's compensation practices, but that the system permitted a scale of risk-taking that has caused grave damage. Geithner went on to say that all institutions and markets that could pose systemic risk will be subject to strong oversight, including appropriate constraints on risk-taking.DJ30 -11.63 NASDAQ -15.43 SP500 -2.22 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 884/1.05 bln/1673 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1183/710 mln/1778

12:30 pm : Diversified banks (-3.9%) and specialized finance companies (-4.2%) are trading with some of the deepest percentage losses in the financial sector.

Insurers aren't faring well either, though. Property and casulty insurers are down 1.7%, while multiline insurers are down 0.8%. Insurance brokers ard down 1.8%.

Many insurance stocks have been hit by concern that battered insurance giant AIG (AIG 1.46, -0.02) may be receiving a competitive advantage due to federal assistance and, in turn, is lowering its prices. Allstate (ALL 20.64, -0.56) and ACE Ltd. (ACE 39.95, -0.45) are seeing particular pressure. DJ30 -46.36 NASDAQ -23.30 SP500 -5.89 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 819/937 mln/1729 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1025/650 mln/1929

12:00 pm : Industrial stocks recently poked into positive territory to sport a modest gain, thanks to leadership from General Electric (GE 10.76, +0.33). However, industrials recently pulled back to trade just below the unchanged mark.

Financial stocks are back under pressure. The sector had been paring losses, but has since retreated back to a loss of 1.9%. Still, financials remain off their session lows. Financials were down more than 4% when trading at their worst levels of the session.DJ30 -66.35 NASDAQ -25.87 SP500 -8.80 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 768/819 mln/1726 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 945/582 mln/1978

11:30 am : Stocks are pulling up from their morning lows, but losses remain broad-based as every major sector in the S&P 500 trades with a loss. Utilities now represent this session's weakest performing sector; it is down 1.7%.

The S&P 500 broader market index and the blue chip Dow Jones Industrial Average are both receiving support from General Electric (GE 10.69, +0.26). According to reports, analysts from Deutsche Bank believe GE will not be forced to raise addtional external funding. However, the analysts did note the company has a high level of earnings sensitivity to macro conditions. If conditions deteriorate further, losses could accelerate in the company's capital arm.DJ30 -53.84 NASDAQ -20.31 SP500 -6.76 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 800/704 mln/1637 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 961/511 mln/1945

11:00 am : The S&P 500 continues to trade with widespread weakness. Despite its decline this session, it is still up roughly 22% since registering a bear market low on March 6. Financial stocks were the greatest beneficiaries of that move; financial stocks are up approximately 61% since March 6.

After financials, consumer discretionary stocks and industrials have seen the best gains during the last couple of weeks. Both sectors are up 25% since hitting early March lows. The two sectors are down 1.0% and 0.9%, respectively, this session.

Consumer staples stocks have seen the least gains since early March. The sector has climbed 11% since registering multiyear lows in early March. The sector is down 0.6% this session.DJ30 -82.84 NASDAQ -24.82 SP500 -10.33 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 703/598 mln/1698 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 744/440 mln/2128

10:30 am : As indicated by the Nasdaq 100, losses among large-cap tech stocks are outpacing declines in the broader indices. The Nasdaq 100 is currently down 1.7% amid particular weakness in Apple (AAPL 106.17, -1.49), Qualcomm (QCOM 38.24, -0.58), and Microsoft (MSFT 18.00, -0.33).

Approximately 70% of the companies listed in the Nasdaq 100 are trading lower. Nearly 70% of the companies listed in the broader S&P 500 are also trading with losses, but the market weight of large-cap tech holdings and the severity of their decline is pulling the Nasdaq 100 even lower.DJ30 -96.06 NASDAQ -25.06 SP500 -10.70 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 726/423 mln/1579 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 728/331 mln/2097

10:05 am : Stocks continue to trade in negative territory, but are paring their losses. Selling pressure continues to weigh on commodities prices.

Crude oil futures prices are down 2.2% to $52.60 per barrel. The decline has yet to eat into crude's price gains in the prior session.

Natural gas prices are also down. Contracts for April delivery are pricing the commodity 1.5% lower at $4.23 per contract.

Precious metals prices are under pressure as well. Gold is currently off by 3.1% to trade hands at roughly $922.50 per ounce. Silver prices are trading at $13.38 per ounce, down 3.6%.

The Baltic Dry Index fell for a ninth consecutive session. It settled 0.8% lower.

Just hitting the wires, the January Home Price Index increased 1.7% month-over-month. It was expected to decline 0.9%. The prior reading shows a decrease of 0.2% after an initial reading that showed a 0.1% increase.

Early movers: Trading up: FIG +18.1%, PQ +16.4%, PVH +14.5%, FAZ +8.2%, BX +8.1%, SKF +7.2%. Trading down: TTES -26.3%, HUBG -16.7%, HRP -14.4%, DDR -12.1%, HST -11.7%, DCT -11%, AGO -10.8%, NWL -10.5%, MGM -10.3%, URE -10.1%, MTL -10%DJ30 -31.70 NASDAQ -13.05 SP500 -5.74 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 841/274 mln/1393 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 815/233 mln/1926

09:40 am : Financial stocks are under stiff selling pressure in the first few minutes of trading. The sector is down 4.0% as participants take profits from the prior session's surge; financial stocks spiked nearly 18% Monday.

Weakness has also spread to the other major economic sectors, though their decline isn't as severe as that of the financial sector. Next to financials, energy stocks are down 1.9%, materials and industrials stocks are both down 1.6%, utilities are down 1.3%, and technology is down 1.2%.DJ30 -86.50 NASDAQ -18.99 SP500 -10.56 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 510/99 mln/1591 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 525/124 mln/2122

09:20 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -10.70. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -16.00. After the S&P 500 surged some 7% Monday, stock futures are lower as participants look to take profits. The prior session's push seemed to come as an extension of the rally effort that began little more than two weeks ago. Given a lingering sense of uncertainty surrounding broader conditions, some pullbacks are to be expected. Still, many of those pullbacks are being met with support as participants remain cognizant of positive headline risks, which are similar to yesterday's news the government plans to purge bad bank assets through a public-private purchasing effort. Such headlines limit the number of bets the stock market will retest its lows. As such, reports indicate the SEC is considering modifying uptick rules, which would likely help slow the decline of stocks under pressure from short sellers. Separate reports suggest major exchanges are urging the SEC to implement such rules. Other corporate and economic news flow is slow this morning.

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -10.90. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -17.80. Stock futures continue pointing toward a lower start. Little economic data is due out this session. January home prices are scheduled to hit news wires at 10:00 AM ET. The consensus estimate calls for a 0.9% month-over-month decline. The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index is also due at 10:00 AM ET. However, the report is unlikely to have a major influence on trading activity. In a rare occurrence, Fed Chairman Bernanke and Treasury Secretary Geithner will appear together at a House Financial Services Committee hearing addressing the government's rescue of AIG.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -9.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -16.30. The major European bourses are on the decline after trading with mixed results. Germany's DAX and France's CAC are both just above the neutral line, but Britain's FTSE is down 1.5%. Advancers and declining issues in the DAX are evenly balanced. Financial players are some of the weakest performers in France; BNP Paribas, AXA (AXA), Societe Generale, and Credit Agricole are the four primary laggards listed in the CAC. Meanwhile, financials and energy and commodity outfits are weighing on the FTSE as HSBC (HBC), BHP Billiton (BHP), Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A), and Rio Tinto (RTP) trade lower. In Asia, the MSCI Asia-Pacific Index closed 1.8% higher, helped by upbeat action in the U.S. Japan's Nikkei added 3.3%. Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (MTU) was a primary leader. Reports show the Japanese government will extend its ban on naked short-selling of stocks and would extend rules on share buybacks until the end of July. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng closed 3.4% higher, registering a 10-week high amid heavy volume. HSBC was a leader. However, fixed-line service provider China Telecom (CHA) underperformed on a relative basis after its 2008 earnings came roughly in-line with expectations. The company had warned that it expected to see a significant year-over-year decline in 2008 profit due to provisions. In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite closed up 0.6%.

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -9.40. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -16.50. Stock futures show little follow through from the prior session's massive rally. There aren't many major news items this morning. Still, there is attention being given to a Reuters report that the Securities Exchange Commission is working to update rules regulating the uptick rule. Reuters reported in a separate story that Goldman Sachs (GS) is showing interest in the ishares business that is being shopped around by Barclays (BCS). A New York Times article indicated Goldman also plans to return its TARP funds as soon as possible. CNBC cited Deutsche Bank in reporting General Electric (GE) won't be forced to raise additional external equity. Meanwhile, a Dow Jones report stated Deutsche Bank (DB) does not need fresh capital. Dow Jones also reports that Credit Suisse (CS) is off to a strong start to 2009.

06:27 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -10.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -19.50.

06:27 am : Nikkei...8488.30...+272.80...+3.30%. Hang Seng...13910.34...+462.90...+3.40%.

06:27 am : FTSE...3903.29...-49.50...-1.30%. DAX...4180.72...+4.50...+0.10%.


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