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 Post subject: March 16th Monday 2009
PostPosted: Mon Mar 16, 2009 9:14 pm 
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Joined: Sat Jan 10, 2009 2:06 pm
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No trades today for me due to personal appointments with my tax accountant, dental cleaning and a lot of website work on one of the new forums to prepare it for RSS feed. However, you can still read today's trades and commentaries that were posted in real-time by other members of #FuturesTrades chat room and their trades are archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=20&t=135

My Trading Performance: 0.00 Emini ES points

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Stocks can't sustain rally
After four up sessions, Wall Street takes a breather, with techs leading the downturn.
By Alexandra Twin, CNNMoney.com senior writer
Last Updated: March 16, 2009: 6:15 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Stocks finished lower Monday, ending a 4-session winning streak, as tech selling countered a bank share-led rally.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) lost 7 points, or 0.1%. The S&P 500 (SPX) index slipped 2.7 points, or 0.4%. The Nasdaq composite (COMP) tumbled 27 points, or 1.9%.

Stocks had gained through the early afternoon on a jump in bank shares and some upbeat comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke. But the advance lost steam late in the afternoon, with investors pulling back after four sessions of gains last week.

"There's some optimism in the market, but it hasn't been a massive push out of cash and into equities," said Paul Brigandi, vice president of trading at Direxion Funds. "Investors are still proceeding with caution. They want to see that it's not just a bear market rally before they commit more."

Stocks rallied last week, bouncing back after the Dow and S&P 500 hit 12-year lows. The week was Wall Street's best since last November, as the Dow gained 9%, the S&P 500 rose 10.7% and the Nasdaq added 10.6%.

Bernanke's comments and some encouraging news from the bank sector helped pace the advance by building confidence.

"Sentiment was really negative a week ago, and so each day the market goes up, the sentiment improves," John Forelli, portfolio manager at Independence Investments said.

Forelli said the advance could continue in the short run if investors can believe the economy is in the healing process. Yet, the run is bound to hit some speed bumps when quarterly results start pouring in next month.

"If you thought the fourth-quarter earnings were bad, get ready for the first quarter," he said.

Tuesday also brings reports on housing starts and building permits, as well as the Producer Price Index (PPI), a measure of wholesale inflation.

Alcoa (AA, Fortune 500) was among the stocks likely to be active Tuesday. After the close Monday, the aluminum maker and Dow component said it will cut its dividend, issue stock and convertible notes worth about $1.1 billion and cut its spending in 2010 amid the slowdown. Shares plunged 10% in extended-hours trading.

Banks: British bank Barclays (BCS) joined the list of companies saying it had a good start to the year.

Citigroup (C, Fortune 500), JPMorgan Chase (JPM, Fortune 500) and Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500) all said similar things last week.

But after rallying through the early afternoon, bank stocks ended mixed. Citigroup (C, Fortune 500) rose 31% and Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500) gained 7.3%. But Goldman Sachs (GS, Fortune 500), Morgan Stanley (MS, Fortune 500) and others abandoned gains as the market turned lower.

Market breadth was mixed. On the New York Stock Exchange, winners beat losers by three to two on volume of 1.9 billion shares. On the Nasdaq, decliners topped advancers five to four on volume of 2.17 billion shares.

Bernanke: Speaking on CBS's "60 Minutes" this weekend, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said that the recession will "probably" end this year if the government is successful in stabilizing the flailing banking system.

The Fed is meeting Tuesday and Wednesday to discuss interest rates, with an announcement expected Wednesday afternoon. The central bank is expected to hold the fed funds rate, its key short-term interest rate, essentially at zero.

However, the Fed could announce that it's going to start buying long-term U.S. Treasurys after saying it was prepared to do so at its last few meetings.

Obama: President Obama said he will try to block millions in bonuses paid to AIG executives, which were given even as the company received $170 billion in federal bailout money.

On Wednesday AIG (AIG, Fortune 500)'s CEO Edward Liddy will go before a House panel investigating the government's involvement in the troubled insurer.

The president, along with Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, also announced new efforts to increase loans for small businesses. (Full story)

G-20: Finance ministers of the Group of 20 industrialized nations meeting over the weekend promised to do whatever is necessary to fix the global economy and repair the shaky banking system. The group also backed increased support for emerging markets.

But the group remained wary of a U.S. proposal for a broader coordinated government spending plan to stimulate global economies. A summit of the group's national leaders is scheduled in London on April 2.

Economy: Industrial production continued to decline last month, as the recession wore on. The government said production fell by a seasonally adjusted 1.4% in February versus forecasts for a fall of 1.3%. Production fell 1.9% in the previous month.

Capacity utilization, a measure of factory output, fell to 70.9% from 71.9% in January. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com thought it would fall to 71%.

The NY Empire State index, a key regional manufacturing report, fell to a record low of negative 38.2 in March from negative 34.7 in February.

Bonds: Treasury prices inched lower, raising the yield on the benchmark 10-year note to 2.95% from 2.90% Friday. Treasury prices and yields move in opposite directions.

Lending rates were little changed. The 3-month Libor rate fell to 1.31% from 1.32% Friday, while the overnight Libor rate held at 0.33%, according to Bloomberg.com. Libor is a bank-to-bank lending rate.

Other markets: In global trading, Asian and European markets ended higher.

In currency trading, the dollar fell versus the euro and gained against the yen.

U.S. light crude oil for April delivery rose $1.10 to settle at $47.35 a barrel on Monday.

COMEX gold for April delivery fell $8.10 to settle at $922 an ounce.

Yahoo! Finance

4:35 pm : Leading up to the opening bell, financial stocks had surged almost 40% from last week's multiyear low. The sector showed continued strength in the early going and even drove the broader market higher, but with conditions looking overbought, participants decided to take some money out of the game.

British banking giant Barclays (BCS 5.31, +0.89) spurred financial stocks higher across foreign indices when it stated it has had a strong start to the year, and it is shopping its iShares business, which could pad its balance sheet with new capital.

Meanwhile, global financial giant HSBC (HBC 26.91, +0.93) indicated it does not need more capital. That proclamation followed a recent rights offering.

With confidence building, diversified banks and financial services outfits Citigroup (C 2.33, +0.55), Bank of America (BAC 6.18, +0.42), and JPMorgan Chase (JPM 23.09, -0.66) were able to provide further support to the financial sector.

Financial stocks were up 6.0% at their session high, carrying the broader market up as much as 2.4%. Despite what was shaping up to be another strong session of broad-based gains, sellers emerged in afternoon trading push financial stocks into the red. With financials back under pressure, the broader market was unable to hold its gains. Financials finished the session with a 1.9% loss, while the stock market closed with a modest loss at its session lows.

The downturn snapped the stock market's four-session run of gains. Despite the move to take profits, participants continue to anticipate positive headlines.

Reuters reports the Financial Accounting Standards Board proposed allowing companies more judgment in determining distressed markets for accounting purposes by the first-quarter reporting period. That could help boost mark-to-market values.

Fed Chairman Bernanke stated in a weekend interview with 60 Minutes that the economy could recover by next year with support from lawmakers and the public. That wasn't anything different than Bernanke has said before, but this time traders reacted more positively, suggesting the emergence of a more positive bias in the overall market.

An improved tone has led participants to pick up beaten down stocks, but that has meant many are rotating out of the sectors that had held up against selling pressure during recent weeks. Particularly, tech stocks were sent markedly lower this session. Technology shares showed relative weakness throughout the entire session, and closed with a 1.7% loss. The weakness in large-cap tech stocks caused the Nasdaq to lag its counterparts since the opening bell.

Energy stocks showed weakness early on, but managed to close with a 0.8% gain. That came as crude oil prices rebounded from early weakness to close pit trading modestly higher at $46.30 per barrel. Oil's gyrations came after OPEC decided during its weekend meeting to leave production levels unchanged.

Economic data was light this session. February industrial production declined 1.4%, which is essentially in-line with the consensus 1.3% decline. Capacity utilization dipped to 70.9% from 71.9%, as generally expected. The February report continues to reflect a weak demand environment that will ultimately drag on GDP.

The Fed's policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee begins its two-day meeting tomorrow. Since the FOMC is expected to leave the target lending rate at a range of 0.00% to 0.25%, most attention will be paid to the wording of Wednesday's statement.DJ30 -7.01 NASDAQ -27.48 NQ100 -2.0% R2K -1.7% SP400 -1.4% SP500 -2.66 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1165/2.15 bln/1506 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1768/1.90 bln/1303

3:30 pm : After opening lower and hitting session lows of $43.62 per barrel on news that OPEC was not planning another production cut, April crude oil made an impressive recovery. The futures contracts rallied to hit a session high of $47.18 per barrel, but closed at $46.30 per barrel, up just a nickel.

April natural gas hit session lows early in the trade at $3.77 each. The contracts were able to break the flat line for about 30 minutes until it traded back down in the red and closed at $3.84, down 2.3%.

Precious metals also traded at session lows early in the morning.

After trading at a session low of $915.30 per ounce, down 1.6%, the April gold futures climbed throughout most of the session and closed at $922.20, down less than 1%.

May silver closed down 2.5% to $12.89 per ounce. The futures contracts were not able to break the $13 level during the session after closing the prior session at $13.22 per ounce.DJ30 +43.80 NASDAQ -20.50 SP500 +2.81 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1225/1.8 bln/1422 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1945/1.3 bln/1115

3:00 pm : Stocks managed to slow their recent descent by pulling up a bit, but selling pressure has since returned and is taking stocks to new afternoon lows.

The downward push has moved the consumer discretionary sector (-0.3%), health care (-0.3%), and technology (-0.8%) into the red.

Though not considered one of the major sectors in the S&P 500, retail is seeing particluarly stiff selling pressure. Retail is down 1.2%.DJ30 +81.72 NASDAQ -9.22 SP500 +7.46 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1507/1.55 bln/1135 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2261/1.17 bln/798

2:30 pm : Stocks have continued retreating from earlier levels, but still sport solid gains. Financials are still putting together an impressive performance, though; the sector is up 4.0%.

However, investment banks and brokerages have failed to share in the financial sector's strength. Goldman Sachs (GS 95.79, -3.01) and Morgan Stanley (MS 23.70, -1.73) are both trading with sizable losses after beginning the session with gains. The companies were among the best performers in recent sessions.DJ30 +97.96 NASDAQ -4.05 SP500 +9.71 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1628/1.42 bln/996 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2386/1.06 bln/672

2:00 pm : The Dow climbs to a session high and then dips a bit. The 30 component price-weighted index is being led by IBM (IBM 92.56, +2.20), United Tech (UTX 42.01, +1.44) and Boeing (BA 34.70, +1.30). DJ30 +130.78 NASDAQ +1.30 SP500 +13.94 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1722/1.26 bln/876 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2507/952 mln/538

1:30 pm : The S&P 500 has pulled back a bit from its session high, but continues to trade with an impressive gain. The Dow is also up handsomely, but remains closer to its best levels of the session.

Oil prices have extended their gains. After starting the session with a loss, oil prices are now up 2.7% to $47.50 per barrel.

Gold is seeing selling pressure, though. Gold is down 1.0% to $921.10 per ounce, even though the dollar is down against other major currencies. According to the Dollar Index, the greenback is off by 0.8%.DJ30 +143.92 NASDAQ +3.45 SP500 +15.13 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1705/1.18 bln/873 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2478/887 mln/555

1:00 pm : Financial stocks continue to lead the broader market in a rally effort that began almost one week ago. With stocks up for the fifth straight session the positive bias is building upon itself.

Citigroup (C 2.46, +0.68), Bank of America (BAC 6.76, +1.00), and JPMorgan Chase (JPM 24.75, +1.00) remain at the center of the financial sector's push. Their momentum was helped along by news that European banks are showing resilience to broader headwinds.

Diversified British banking giant Barclays (BCS 5.27, +0.85) indicated it is shopping its iShares business, which essentially deals in exchange traded funds (ETFs). Separate reports indicated Barclays has had a strong start to the year.

HSBC (HBC 27.48, +1.50) attempted to help shore up confidence by stating it does not need more capital. The financial sector is currently sporting a 4.7% gain, helping propel the broader market to fresh session highs.

Though the stock market's recent advance remains impressive, many participants continue to question whether the gain is sustainable, given that many economic barometers have yet to show signs of bottoming.

Most recently, February industrial production declined 1.4%, which is essentially in-line with the consensus 1.3% decline. It was a slower rate of decline than the downwardly revised 1.9% decline registered in January, however. Capacity utilization dipped to 70.9% from 71.9%, as generally expected. The February report continues to reflect a weak demand environment that will ultimately drag on GDP.

Still, this hasn't undermined the shift in market sentiment that has occurred in the last week. Participants are positioning for positive headlines rather than negative headlines.

Though he wasn't stating anything new, Fed Chairman Bernanke gave participants the news they wanted to hear by indicating in a public weekend interview on "60 Minutes" that the economy could recover by next year with support from lawmakers and the public.

Bernanke also indicated an end to the crisis depends a lot on the financial system. That said, investors continue to await the Treasury's plan to help banks handle toxic assets and how to bring the public and private sector together to price those assets. A complete plan to treat the assets will remove a major overhang from many banks and financial companies.

Another overhang would be removed if banks and financial companies were allowed to treat mark-to-market rules differently. Though a congressional subcommittee is examining the rules, Reuters reports the Financial Accounting Standards Board proposed allowing companies to exercise more judgment in determining distressed markets. There is hope to have the guidance approved for the first-quarter financial reports. The guidance could help boost fair values, or mark-to-market values, and get investors more interested in U.S. banks.DJ30 +151.25 NASDAQ +9.76 SP500 +17.47 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1720/1.06 bln/831 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2516/797 mln/522

12:30 pm : Trading remains choppy, but the stock market has managed to hold together its advance, and is even challenging earlier session highs. Gains remain widespread as all 10 major sectors are now in the green; advancing issues in the S&P 500 outnumber decliners by more than 3-to-1.DJ30 +120.51 NASDAQ +1.32 SP500 +14.01 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1574/945 mln/925 mln NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2414/726 mln/599

12:00 pm : The Nasdaq has pared its losses and is making its way back to the unchanged mark. The Nadaq was down as much as 1.0% at its session low.

Oil prices have also changed direction, giving way to a gain in energy stocks. Oil prices were under pressure in the early going as traders reacted to news that OPEC was leaving output unchanged. Many had expected OPEC to further reduce its production targets. Crude oil prices are currently up 0.5% to almost $46.50 per barrel. Meanwhile, energy stocks are up 1.5% after trading with a loss of roughly 0.6%.DJ30 +99.88 NASDAQ -2.29 SP500 +10.01 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1510/850 mln/950 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2333/656 mln/666

11:30 am : Strength in Citigroup (C 2.46, +0.68), Bank of America (BAC 6.54, +0.78), and JPMorgan Chase (JPM 24.94, +1.19) has pushed the financial sector (+4.9%) to a fresh session high. The trio also led the financial sector's rally last week.

Despite the leadership of those diversified banks and financial institutions, multiline insurers (+12.4%) and life and health insurers (+11.5%) are posting the best gains by percent within the financial sector.

Among multiline insurers, AIG (AIG 0.84, +0.34) is showing the most strength; the stock is currently up almost 70% despite drawing the ire of taxpayers after it was revealed AIG paid billions of its government aid to counterparties like Goldman Sachs (GS 99.82, +1.02). DJ30 +109.75 NASDAQ -0.11 SP500 +13.04 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1538/727 mln/871 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2357/558 mln/610

11:00 am : The Dow and the S&P 500 recently swung to session highs, but have since pared their gains. The Nasdaq remains stuck in negative territory, however.

Gains are generally broad-based as nine of the 10 major sectors in the S&P 500 trade with gains; tech (-1.1%) is the only sector in the red.

Financials (+3.3%) remain the best performing sector, but utilities (+3.0%) and industrials (+2.3%) are also putting together an impressive advance. Every company listed in the utilities sector is currently trading higher; Exelon (EXC 43.09, +1.07) is leading the way. Meanwhile, General Electric (GE 9.91, +0.29) is leading gains in the industrial sector, though the stock continues to trade as if it were a financial holding, given the exposure of the company's capital arm to financial and capital markets.DJ30 +60.13 NASDAQ -12.47 SP500 +6.83 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1360/569 mln/999 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2118/436 mln/811

10:30 am : Trading has been rather choppy thus far. The Nasdaq has actually fallen into the red as large-cap tech stocks such as Apple (AAPL 94.54, -1.39), Microsoft (MSFT 16.39, -0.26), and Oracle (ORCL 14.93, -0.63) are hit with selling pressure.

The drop in large-cap tech contrasts the relative strength that it had showed in recent weeks. Investors frightful of continuing economic malaise were showing interest in cash rich tech outfits that carried little debt. Many analysts even speculated that tech would lead the U.S. economic rebound.

However, with the broader market's rebound of late, participants appear to be turning their focus to more beaten down sectors, such as financials (+3.4%).DJ30 +49.54 NASDAQ -10.48 SP500 +6.11 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1358/431 mln/956 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2039/332 mln/839

10:05 am : Commodities are showing weakness in early trading.

Crude oil futures are down 4% to $44.45 per barrel. The drop in crude oil prices follows news that OPEC is leaving production unchanged. With demand still waning and production unchanged, many traders are betting stockpiles will build.

Meanwhile, precious metals are also seeing selling pressure. Gold contracts are currently pricing the yellow metal 1.4% lower at $917.50 per ounce. Silver prices are seeing even more pressure; the metal is down 2.9% to $12.84 per ounce.

Early Movers: Trading up: PRSC +16.2%, AINV +12.9%, CTBK +11.9%, BCS +11.3%, NWL +10.7%, APP +10.4%, PEI +9.2%, CPBY +8.6%, CTCM +8.3%. Trading down: QDEL -19.4%, ARUN -13.2%, SNDK -12.5%, UTHR -8.4%, SPR -7.7%, GM -7.4%DJ30 +69.53 NASDAQ -2.03 SP500 +8.35 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1440/270 mln/794 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2099/230 mln/700

09:45 am : The financial sector is up 3.0%. Bank stocks are up 2.8%, according to the KBW Banking Index. Their gains are leading the broader market.

Financial stocks also led the broader market last week. Last week, financial stocks advanced 34%, helping the S&P 500 advance 10.7%. The advance by financials was the sector's best weekly performance by percent in years.

Last week's gains came after several headlines indicated some of the biggest U.S. banks posted profits in the first two months of 2009. This session's gains come as participants continue to feed on a fresh sense of optimism and anticipation that positive headlines relating to resolving the financial system will emerge.DJ30 +64.67 NASDAQ +4.91 SP500 +8.12 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1529/123 mln/588 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2188/134 mln/547

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +8.40. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +2.50. Stock futures suggest a positive bias ahead of the opening bell. The upbeat tone comes after stocks logged gains in each of the previous four sessions. The advances were spurred by positive headlines out of the financial sector, which helped stocks recover from an ugly three-week rut. With financial stocks leading both downturns and recoveries, the sector will remain in focus this session. Foreign financial stocks were given a lift after Barclays (BCS) indicated it is looking to divest its iShares business. Meanwhile, investors continue to await the latest plan from the Treasury to help banks handle toxic assets that have driven write-downs and losses. The Wall Street Journal reported plans are in the making to revamp oversight and make higher capital requirements for banks. Oil prices are moving lower after OPEC opted during its weekend meeting to leave output unchanged. Crude oil futures prices are currently down 2.6% to $45.05 per barrel just ahead of the opening to pit trading. OPEC's next meeting is scheduled for May.

09:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +9.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +3.50. Stock futures continue to ease back from earlier levels, but continue to lead fair value, indicating an upward start for the session. The renewed sense of optimism comes after finishing last week with four straight gains. The March Empire Manufacturing Index came in at -38.23, which is worse than the -30.80 reading that was widely expected. Net Long-term TIC Flows for January came in at -$43 billion, which is worse than teh $45.0 billion that was expected. The prior reading showed $34.7 billion in flows. Total Net TIC Flows fell $148.9 billion in January. The were up $86.2 billion the month before.

08:40 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +9.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +5.50. Foreign stocks are showing strength. Barclays (BCS) indicated it is looking to sell its iShares business. The move could help bolster firm capital. Separate reports indicate the firm also said it has had a strong start to 2009. Shares of Barclays are trading with strength in Britain's FTSE, which is up 2.3%. HSBC (HBC) is also providing leadership to the FTSE. Meanwhile, France's CAC is up 2.3% as well. Financial stocks of BNP Paribas and Societe Generale are showing some of the most strength. Though still making a solid advance, Germany's DAX is lagging its counterparts as it trades with a 1.9% gain. Allianz (AZ) and Siemens (SI) are primary leaders in the German bourse. An upbeat bias was also shared in Asia. The MSCI Asia-Pacific Index closed 2.0% higher. Japan's Nikkei closed 1.8% higher, helped by a rally in financials. The country's Finance Minister supported a call for governments to pump more money into their economies, and said Friday the Japanese would have the outline of a new economic package ready in April. Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (MTU) built on recent gains. Separately, Hitachi (HIT) said it would cut costs next year via restructuring... In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng closed 3.6% higher. HSBC led gains; the lender reassured investors it would not need a bailout. China Life (LFC) led insurers higher. In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite closed 1.2% higher.

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +9.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +7.80. Stock futures currently point to an upward start. According to Reuters, Treasury will soon offer details regarding its plan to address toxic assets responsible for driving losses on bank balance sheets. Meanwhile, The Wall Street Journal reported the government is drafting a plan to revamp oversight of banks and implement tougher capital requirements. Separate reports indicate Barclays (BCS) may sell its iShares business, which focuses on exchange traded funds, otherwise ETFs. The move could help bolster the company's balance sheet. Crude oil futures prices are down 3.9% to $44.45 per barrel after OPEC elected not to cut output.

06:22 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +10.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +9.00.

06:22 am : Nikkei...7704.15...+134.90...+1.80%. Hang Seng...12976.71...+450.90...+3.60%.

06:22 am : FTSE...3833.37...+80.70...+2.20%. DAX...4053.40...+99.90...+2.50%.


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