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 Post subject: March 13th Friday 2009
PostPosted: Fri Mar 13, 2009 8:05 pm 
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Today's trades that were posted in real-time in #FuturesTrades chat room via my IRC user name NihabaAshi are archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=20&t=131

My Trading Performance: +22.75 Emini ES points

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Bulls make it 4 for 4
Wall Street now on its best run since November after a seesaw session.
By Alexandra Twin, CNNMoney.com senior writer
Last Updated: March 13, 2009: 6:02 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Wall Street rallied at the end of a choppy session Friday as investors pushed the stock market's gains to four days in a row - its best stretch since late November.

In a see-saw session, the Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) added 54 points, or 0.8%. The S&P 500 (SPX) index added 6 points, or 0.8%. The Nasdaq composite (COMP) gained 5 points, or 0.4%.

The Dow and S&P 500 ended Monday at 12-year lows, but shares bounced back since then. For the week, the Dow rose 9%, the S&P 500 rose 10.7% and the Nasdaq added 10.6%.

The advance this week was a "relief rally" following several months of selling, said Jamie Cox, managing partner at Harris Financial Group. Talk about reinstating the "uptick rule" that limits short selling - and changing mark-to-market accounting - added to the gains.

"All these things are the mustard seeds of a recovery, but we need to see more," Cox said. "Lack of confidence is a huge problem, and it's going to take a bigger effort to smoke out all the money on the sidelines."

While the four-day advance was a confidence-booster, investors will be tested next week to see if they can extend the rally. Next week brings reports on manufacturing, housing, wholesale and consumer inflation. The latest Federal Reserve policy meeting is on tap and Oracle (ORCL, Fortune 500) and FedEx (FDX, Fortune 500) are among the select companies reporting quarterly results.

"Ultimately we need a catalyst to move us higher," said Michael Sheldon, chief market strategist at RDM Financial Group.

Reinstating the uptick rule or changing mark-to-market accounting could change the playing field, he said. Similarly, stocks will likely benefit when the Treasury Department rolls out its private-public partnership to buy up bad assets.

Financials: Citigroup (C, Fortune 500) Chairman Richard Parsons told Reuters late Thursday that the financial services company won't need any more government help and that it will remain publicly traded. The stock plummeted in recent weeks on fears that it would have to be fully taken over by the government, which said last week it would lift its stake in Citigroup to as much as 36%.

Earlier this week, Citigroup CEO Vikram Pandit said the company was profitable in the first two months of the year. JPMorgan Chase (JPM, Fortune 500) and Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500) have also said that the start of the year has seen some improvement.

Citigroup shares gained, but the rest of the financial sector was mixed. The KBW Bank (BKX) index, which tracks the largest bank stocks, lost 1.4% on Friday.

Drugmakers: The sector continued to rally one day after a series of mergers and other developments sent Pfizer (PFE, Fortune 500) and others rising.

Merck (MRK, Fortune 500) rallied 13% Friday after an analyst at Sanford C. Bernstein upgraded the stock to "outperform" from "market perform," Reuters reported.

Other movers: General Motors (GM, Fortune 500) rallied for a second session after saying Thursday that it won't have to take $2 billion in additional federal loans this month because its cost-cutting efforts have improved its cash position.

Fitch cut the credit rating on Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway (BRKB) to AA+ from the top-tier AAA Friday, citing worries about the company's investments and Buffett's tight grip on the company.

Dow stock General Electric (GE, Fortune 500) was barely changed one day after a big rally. On Thursday, the stock surged even though S&P downgraded GE and GE Capital's top tier credit ratings to AA+ from AAA, with a "stable" outlook.

But Wall Street had been speculating that one of the major ratings agencies might issue a downgrade, and the stock had already slumped in anticipation of an announcement. GE shares rallied 12.7% Thursday.

Market breadth was positive. On the New York Stock Exchange, winners beat losers three to two on volume of 1.61 billion shares. On the Nasdaq, advancers topped decliners five to four on volume of 2.08 billion shares.

Economy: The nation's trade gap shrank in January to a six-year low, with imports topping exports by $36 billion in the month.

The University of Michigan's March consumer sentiment index rose to 56.6 from 56.3 in February, versus forecasts for a drop to 55.

Bonds: Treasury prices tumbled, raising the yield on the benchmark 10-year note to 2.90% from 2.86% Thursday. Treasury prices and yields move in opposite directions.

Bond prices reacted partly to comments from Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao, who said he was concerned that the rising U.S. deficit will erode the value of China's U.S. bond holdings.

Lending rates were unchanged. The 3-month Libor rate held steady at 1.32%, while the overnight Libor rate held at 0.33%, according to Bloomberg.com. Libor is a bank-to-bank lending rate.

Other markets: In global trading, Asian and European markets ended higher.

In currency trading, the dollar fell versus the euro and the yen.

U.S. light crude oil for April delivery fell 78 cents to settle at $46.25 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

COMEX gold for April delivery rose $6.10 to settle at $930.10 an ounce.

Yahoo! Finance

4:15 pm : Following the stock market's near 11% rebound during the previous three sessions, participants were compelled Friday to take profits amid a lack of positive catalysts. Still, stocks showed resolve to the selling effort by climbing back from a loss of more than 1% to finish the session with a solid gain.

Sellers focused their efforts on financials, which had surged nearly 40% from last week's intraday lows to the prior session's close. That gain was inspired by reassuring headlines indicating JPMorgan Chase (JPM 23.75, +0.55), Bank of America (BAC 5.76, -0.09), and Citigroup (C 1.78, +0.11) are profitable so far this year. More recently, Citigroup went on to say it will not need additional funds from the government.

Financials have also been bolstered in recent sessions by headlines suggesting possible relaxation from mark-to-market rules and short-selling rules. Though there haven't been any new details released about those matters, the potential for more positive headlines is challenging short sellers.

Financials initially showed strength Friday, but fell to a loss of more than 4%. Given the gains financials registered in recent sessions, the downward move wasn't very surprising considering the lack of positive catalysts and listless trading in early action. What was encouraging, though, was the fact financials came rallying back to close with a gain (+0.3%).

Despite a lack of clear leadership and very choppy trading, the broader market was also able to muster a gain and close above its November closing low. Stocks have now closed higher in four straight sessions, which was last done more than one month ago.

Health care, which is the largest sector in the S&P 500 by market weight, was this session's best performing sector. Health care stocks advanced 3.3% as investors show renewed interest in the sector following its string of weakness. Stocks in the sector had become battered during recent weeks as investors feared health care reform would crimp profits. Recent merger and acquisition activity has also induced a bit of a snap back in buying.

Energy was the session's worst performing sectors. Energy shed 0.7% amid downgrades of several oil equipment and services stocks and a 1.7% decline in crude oil prices. Crude oil for April delivery settled at $46.25 per barrel. Oil prices had actually traded higher in the early going, but this weekend's OPEC meeting has created a sense of uncertainty among traders.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will meet March 17-18 to make its latest monetary policy decision. The FOMC is expected to keep interest rates in the target range of 0% to 0.25%. Per usual, though, market participants will look for insights into the FOMC's plans to support financial markets.

This session's economic news had little effect on trading. February import prices were down 0.2% month-over-month, which is a softer downturn than the 0.7% decline that was widely expected.

Meanwhile, the January Trade Balance showed a $36.0 billion deficit, which is less steep than the $38.0 billion deficit that was expected. A drop in exports slightly offset a drop in imports. The deficit has narrowed every month since July, revealing an overall contraction in global trade.

With global trade slowing, Japan and China indicated they are willing to devise fresh stimulus. That sentiment helped drive a 5.2% gain in Japan's Nikkei and a 4.4% gain in Hong Kong's Hang Seng. The MSCI Asia-Pacific Index closed 3.5% higher.DJ30 +53.92 NASDAQ +5.40 NQ100 +0.3% R2K +0.8% SP400 +0.4% SP500 +5.81 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1149/1518/2.06 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1101/1959/1.61 bln

3:35 pm : April crude oil closed at $46.25 per barrel. After hitting early morning highs of $48.14 per barrel and session lows in the afternoon at $45.77 per barrel, the contracts closed down 1.7%.

April natural gas contracts also finished lower at $3.93 each, down 1.8%. April natural gas traded in a range of just $0.13 on the session.

Precious metals, on the other hand, enjoyed gains on the session.

After spiking to session highs of $941.10 per ounce early in the morning, April gold contracts receded and traded around the $930 level before closing at $928.40 per ounce.

May silver futures contracts managed to stay in positive territory for the entire pit session. The futures contracts closed at $13.20 per ounce, up 2% on the session.DJ30 +42.61 NASDAQ +1.48 SP500 +4.20 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1087/1564/1.7 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1077/1976/1.2 bln

3:00 pm : In the wake of strong gains this week, the market continues to show resolve to selling efforts.

The financial sector (-1.4%) may be a laggard, but it's important to keep today's move in context. It isn't bad. If anything, it is to be expected. Prior to today's trading, the S&P Financial sector had gained 33% this week.

Separately, the choppiness in the broader market trading action today can be attributed in part to the retest of the S&P's November closing low of 752.44, which pivoted from a support zone to a resistance point when it was penetrated two weeks ago on a closing basis. DJ30 +30.02 NASDAQ -0.65 SP500 +2.82 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1177/1536/1.50 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1179/1792/1.03 bln

2:30 pm : The major indices are generally unchanged from earlier levels. Action remains mixed.

Financials continue to trade with the steepest loss of any major sector in the S&P 500. Financials are currently down 1.7% with particular weakness in regional banks (-5.4%), consumer finance (-4.7%), and diversified banks (-4.6%).

Meanwhile, health care stocks are sporting the best gains of any sector; they're up 2.9%. Health care's advance comes amid broad gains within the sector. Managed health care is up 4.7%, health care facilities are up 5.2%, and health care distributors are up 4.1%.DJ30 +11.31 NASDAQ -5.89 SP500 +0.42 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1203/1401/1.45 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1268/1748/1.00 bln

2:00 pm : Stocks were knocked to a loss of 1.1%, but have since come climbing back to trade with a fractional gain. The initial selling effort was rooted in profit taking, which followed a lack of catalysts that were capable of extending the stock market's recent string of gains.

However, buyers have responded to the downward move by providing support. Should the support result in a gain for the session, it would be the first time in more than one month that stocks have advanced for four straight sessions.DJ30 +19.59 NASDAQ -4.07 SP500 +1.30 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1159/1421/1.33 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1241/1759/924 mln

1:30 pm : Overall, retailers are having a rather solid session. The group is currently trading with a 0.9% gain, thanks to leadership from Target (TGT 29.78, +1.29) and Home Depot (HD 20.69, +0.36).

Smaller retail stocks are seeing some selling pressure, though. Pacific Sunwear (PSUN 1.21, -0.01) is down after posting a loss. Macy's (M 8.23, -0.09) is also showing a loss after being removed from the Conviction Buy List at Goldman Sachs, according to Dow Jones. Aeropostale (ARO 24.68, -0.45) is in the red despite better-than-expected quarterly earnings results. Shares of ARO already registered solid gains in recent sessions, and had attracted investor interest after putting up solid monthly same-store sales numbers last week.DJ30 +17.52 NASDAQ -2.77 SP500 +1.33 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1134/1426/1.24 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1253/1737/862 mln

1:05 pm : A lack of positive catalysts in the early going challenged stocks to extend the prior session's gains, leading to relatively listless trading and moderate losses.

Lack of direction in the broader market has led to some choppy trading. Stocks attempted to put together a broad-based advance in the early going, but the failure of financial stocks to materially build on their recent gains has invited a bit of profit-taking.

Leading up to the opening bell, financial stocks had surged more than 30% this week. The sector showed initial strength in the wake of comments from Citigroup (C 1.78, +0.11) that the company will not need additional government money. Financial stocks were up roughly 2.7%, but has since reversed direction to now trade with a 1.8% loss, which is worse than any other sector.

Without the leadership of financial stocks, the broader market has been unable to put together a sustainable gain of its own. Broader-market investors have been generally uninspired that Japan and China are willing to order up fresh stimulus spending, which would come as part of an effort to restore economic conditions in their contries and the global economy.

In economic news, the January Trade Balance showed a $36.0 billion deficit, which is less steep than the $38.0 billion deficit that was expected. The deficit has now narrowed for several months in a row.

Meanwhile, February import prices were down 0.2% month-over-month, which is a softer downturn than the 0.7% decline that was widely expected. The prior reading was revised modesly lower to reflect a month-over-month decline of 1.2%. DJ30 -12.03 NASDAQ -9.10 SP500 -2.36 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1236/1292/1.15 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1443/1521/806 mln

12:30 pm : General Motors (GM 2.61, +0.43) is trading with the best percentage gain of any stock within the Dow. Shares of GM have been advancing at a torrid clip during the last few sessions. The company stated Thursday that it doesn't need the $2 billion installment loan it requested from the government. GM's share price has doubled since last Friday.

Fellow Dow component General Electric (GE 9.36, -0.21) is trading with moderate weakness. Shares of the company posted a strong advance in the prior session as participants bought the stock after Standard & Poor's downgraded the company's credit rating. GE's weakness in recent weeks stems largely from the company's capital arm. According to a Dow Jones report released after Thursday's close, GE capital credit default swaps are still trading in distressed territory.DJ30 -39.43 NASDAQ -13.08 SP500 -5.28 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1280/1218/1.04 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1577/1379/729 mln

12:00 pm : The headline indices continue to trade with losses. The Nasdaq Composite is seeing the largest decline by percent.

Microsoft (MSFT 16.29, -0.72) is a primary laggard in the Nasdaq. Research In Motion (RIMM 39.39, -2.07), Qualcomm (QCOM 36.24, -0.55), and Cisco (CSCO 15.34, -0.17) are also weighing on the index. The relative weakness of such large-cap tech names is also undercutting the Nasdaq 100, which is trading with a 1.0% loss.DJ30 -29.31 NASDAQ -13.52 SP500 -4.45 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1208/1260/941 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1440/1497/642 mln

11:30 am : Stocks recently fell to fresh session lows, sending all three major indices into the red. Stocks have since pulled up a bit.

The recent drop came as financial stocks reversed direction to head into negative territory. Financial stocks now trade with a 1.2% loss; they were down more than 2% at their session low.

The selling effort undercutting financial stocks comes as participants may be looking to take some money off the table after the financial sector failed to make a convincing upswing in the first couple of hours of trading. Leading up to the opening bell, financial stocks had surged more than 30% week-to-date. DJ30 -10.60 NASDAQ -8.32 SP500 -2.22 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1080/1346/799 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1272/1627/549 mln

11:00 am : After bouncing back from a recent selling effort, stocks are back under pressure. Action has been choppy since the opening bell.

Energy stocks continue to trade as laggards, even though crude prices are trading with modest gains. The energy sector is currently down 0.8%, but crude prices were recently quoted 0.6% higher at $47.30 per barrel.

The drop in energy stocks is due largely to weakness in oil and gas refiners (-3.1%) and oil and gas equipment outfits (-1.9%). Stocks of oil and gas equipment companies Baker Hughes (BHI ) 29.26, -0.56) and National Oilwell Varco (NOV 28.55, -1.02) were downgraded by analysts at Credit Suisse. However, Credit Suisse did upgrade shares of Halliburton (HAL 16.15).DJ30 +17.52 NASDAQ -3.87 SP500 +0.14 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 975/1386/650 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1098/1772/453 mln

10:30 am : Financials have emerged to trade with strength. Financials were up roughly 2%, but have since pulled back to trade with a 0.7% gain. The broader market has followed.

Diversified banks (+2.5%) and diversified financial services companies (+4.4%) continue to provide the most strength to the financial sector.

Life and health insurers are lending a helping hand. The group is up 3.8%. Stocks of life insurers have been beaten down in recent weeks. Their decline has gone hand-in-hand with those of other financial stocks and the broader market since many insurance companies have their asset portfolios invested in stocks. Concerns that insurers could see their capital positions deteriorate have led many companies to request support from the government, while some states have already relaxed capital requirements.

Among individual insurers, Humana (HUM 25.02, +1.96) is showing particular strength, though some of its gain is being attributed to takeover rumors.DJ30 +10.99 NASDAQ -3.76 SP500 +1.45 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 953/1334/469 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1070/1747/345 mln

10:00 am : Stocks continue to gyrate as they try to establish a direction in the early going. Commodities are showing solid gains for the second straight session, though, as the CRB Commodity Index climbs 0.6%.

Gold prices are up more than 1% to $933.50 per ounce, according to April contracts. Silver is up 1.2% to $13.10 per ounce, according to May delivery contracts.

Meanwhile, crude oil is up modestly. Contracts for April delivery are pricing oil 0.5% higher at $47.25 per barrel. Crude prices are up roughly 5.9% this year.

Natural gas is down, however. Natural gas was recently quoted at $3.92 per contract, down 2.0%.

Recently hitting the wires, the preliminary consumer confidence reading for March, issued by University of Michigan, came in at 56.6. That was up slightly from the prior reading of 56.3. The consensus estimate called for a March reading of 55.0.

Early movers: Trading up: STEC +23.9%, LVS +23.2%, SUI +20.4%, NCS +17.4%, GM +12.8%, APL +11.9%, ROCK +11.5%, DNDN +11.4%, MGM +11%, APPY +10.3%, AMR +9.2%. Trading down: NTCT -13.4%, PGNX -16.1%, ZUMZ -15.4%, PBY -10.7%, CMP -10.3%, LWAY -9.0%, LUX -7.9%, QGEN -6.7%DJ30 +25.24 NASDAQ +1.22 SP500 +3.64 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 927/1247/284 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 967/1743/212 mln

09:45 am : Stocks are off to a mixed start as participants take a breather after sending stocks roughly 11% higher during the course of the past three sessions. Given the lack of catalysts ahead of the opening bell, a clear leader has yet to be established.

Consumer discretionary stocks (-0.1%), energy (-0.2%), and technology stocks (-0.6%) are all in the red. The other major sectors are all showing modest gains.DJ30 +6.93 NASDAQ -7.29 SP500 +0.17 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 913/1142/153 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1102/1500/151 mln

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +4.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -5.50. Stock futures have pulled back from earlier levels, suggesting a flat-to-mixed start for the major indices. The initial positive bias came as an extension from the strong performance registered in the prior session. Gains during the last few trading sessions have been largely led by strength in financials, thanks to reassuring news reports that several major banks have been profitable so far this year, while headlines indicate changes could be in order for mark-to-market rules and short-selling rules. More recently, news that Japan and China are willing to order up fresh stimulus spending has helped induce gains in overseas markets; the optimism has looped back to the U.S. markets. There haven't been any market-moving earnings or economic reports to act as catalysts this morning.

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +3.60. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -8.30. Overseas markets are staging strong gains in the wake of a solid session of follow-through gains in the U.S. Germany's DAX is trading 2.0% higher as financial stocks provide leadership. Allianz (AZ) and Deutsche Boerse are among the session's primary leaders. Commerzbank and Deutsche Bank (DB) are also showing solid gains. Britain's FTSE is up 2.5%. HSBC (HBC) is a primary leader, but stocks of materials and energy outfits BHP Billiton (BHP) and BP PLC (BP) are also showing strength. Meanwhile, Total (TOT) is helping France's CAC is advance 2.2%. In Asia, Japan's Nikkei closed 5.2%, aided by news of another fiscal stimulus and reports that Japan may use zero coupon bonds to finance exchange traded fund purchases. The country's Prime Minister also announced a new spending plan. Sony (SNE) gained on news it plans to form an alliance with Seiko Epson. Canon (CAJ) climbed after saying its net income will increase in 2010 from this year, assuming the global economy recovers next year. Hong Kong's Hang Seng added 4.4%, led by financials. Manulife Financial built showed continued strength. ICBC, China Construction Bank, and Bank of Communications were all up. In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite closed -0.2%, despite Premier Wen Jiabao's reassurance that he would deliver on a promise of 8% growth this year and might roll out extra stimulus spending if needed. However, the Premier ddi express concerns about the security of U.S. Treasuries. The MSCI Asia-Pacific Index closed 3.5% higher.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +7.90. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +1.30. Stock futures continue pointing toward an upward start. The positive bias has been unfazed by the latest batch of economic data. The January Trade Balance showed a $36.0 billion deficit, which is less steep than the $38.0 billion deficit that was expected. The prior reading showed a $39.9 billion deficit. February import prices were down 0.2% month-over-month, which is a softer downturn than the 0.7% decline that was widely expected. The prior reading was revised modesly lower to reflect a month-over-month decline of 1.2%. Year-over-year, the February Import Price Index fell 12.8%. It was expected to decline 13.5% year-over-year after a 12.5% year-over-year drop in the prior month.

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +7.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +3.00. Stock futures are showing a positive bias as the prior session's strong finish extends into premarket trading. Should the upbeat tone persist and stocks manage to close higher, it would mark the first time in more than one month that the stock market registered gains in four straight sessions. Citigroup (C) indicated it does not need any additional goverment capital, pushing its shares nearly 9% higher to $1.82 per share in premarket trading. Other diversified banks and financial services companies are trading higher in sympathy. Strong gains in foreign markets are also helping feed an early, positive bias. Gains were especially strong in Asia, where Japan's officials expressed desire and willingness to create a fresh stimulus package. There are a few economic reports due out today. The January trade balance and February Import Price Index are both due at the bottom of the hour. The Preliminary March reading for consumer confidence from University of Michigan is due later this morning (10:00 AM ET).

06:25 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +5.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -0.50.

06:25 am : Nikkei...7569.28...+371.00...+5.20%. Hang Seng...12525.80...+524.30...+4.40%.

06:25 am : FTSE...3775.06...+63.00...+1.70%. DAX...3999.50...+43.30...+1.10%.


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