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 Post subject: March 12th Thursday 2009
PostPosted: Thu Mar 12, 2009 4:24 pm 
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Today's trades that were posted in real-time in #FuturesTrades chat room via my IRC user name NihabaAshi are archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=20&t=130

My Trading Performance: +37.25 Emini ES points

--------------------



A three-peat for Wall Street's bulls
Stocks continue their advance as investors react to better-than-expected retail sales and GE downgrade.
By Alexandra Twin, CNNMoney.com senior writer
Last Updated: March 12, 2009: 4:08 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Stocks jumped Thursday, rallying for the third session in a row, as investors scooped up banks and other shares hit in the selloff that left the Dow at 12-year lows.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) gained 240 points, or 3.5%, according to early tallies, managing a three-session rally for the first time since late January.

The S&P 500 (SPX) index gained 29 points, or 4%. The Nasdaq composite (COMP) gained 54 points, or 4%.

A smaller-than-expected drop in retail sales and strength in drugmaker shares helped fuel the run. Investors also sent GE higher, despite news that it lost its top credit rating in a S&P downgrade.

The major gauges rose in the previous two sessions after the Dow and S&P 500 ended Monday at 12-year lows. Bets that regulators may reinstate a rule that limits short selling and talk that a key accounting rule could be suspended or altered helped pace the advance.

After a shaky start, investors resumed the rally Thursday.

"We were very oversold through Monday and the market was looking for any kind of excuse to put on a rally," said Mike Stanfield, CEO of VSR Financial Services. "The question is will this be the kind of short-term bounce we've seen since the election or will it be something more substantive."

He said that it all depends on the behavior of the financial sector.

"The market will never get its footing until the financials make a low and hold it," Stanfield said. "The market can't be healthy without a healthy financial system."

Congress held a hearing Thursday on mark-to-market accounting. Critics say the accounting rule has hurt the bank sector by forcing companies to write down bad assets at fire sale prices. Supporters say it provides a clear picture of the assets banks are holding. (Full story)

Also in the mix: Bernard Madoff was sent to jail to await sentencing after pleading guilty to 11 charges in relation to one of the biggest swindles in Wall Street history. (Full story)

GE and GM: Standard & Poor's downgraded GE and GE Capital's long-term credit ratings to AA+ from AAA, with a "stable" outlook. But Wall Street had been speculating that one of the major ratings agencies might issue a downgrade, and the stock had already slumped in anticipation of an announcement. GE shares rallied 13% Thursday.

General Motors (GM, Fortune 500) said it won't have to take $2 billion in additional federal loans this month because its cost-cutting efforts have improved its cash position.

Financials: Bank stocks were mostly higher, with Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500), Wells Fargo (WFC, Fortune 500), Goldman Sachs (GS, Fortune 500) and Morgan Stanley (MS, Fortune 500) all rising. The KBW Bank (BKW) sector index rose 9%.

The bank sector drove a bigger stock market advance Tuesday after regulators said they may reinstate the "uptick rule" that stops short sellers from driving a floundering stock lower. Critics say the absence of the rule has played a role in the steep selloff of bank stocks this year.

Stocks also got a boost Tuesday after Citigroup (C, Fortune 500) cooled some worries about its future by saying it was profitable in the first two months of the year.

In other financial news, mortgage lender Freddie Mac, now under federal conservatorship, reported its sixth straight quarterly loss late Wednesday and asked the government for another $30.8 billion.

Drugmakers: Swiss company Roche Holding said it's buying the remaining 44% of U.S. biotech Genentech it doesn't already own. The $46.8 billion deal ends an almost 8-month battle in which Genentech (DNA) repeatedly spurned Roche's offer. Genentech shares gained 2%.

Biotech Gilead Sciences (GILD) said it will buy drugmaker CV Therapeutics (CVTX) for $1.4 billion. CV shares jumped 30%, while Gilead shares were little changed.

Pfizer (PFE, Fortune 500) said that a late-stage clinical trial of its cancer drug Sutent has been stopped early after the drug produced a significant benefit in patients with a rare form of cancer. Shares of the Dow component jumped 7.5%.

Market breadth was positive. On the New York Stock Exchange, winners topped losers by over ten to one on volume of 1.79 billion shares. On the Nasdaq, advancers beat decliners by over 4 to 1 on volume of 2.42 billion shares.

Economy: February retail sales fell 0.1% after falling a revised 1.8% in the previous month, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. Sales were expected to have fallen 0.5%, according to a consensus of economists surveyed by Briefing.com.

Sales excluding volatile autos rose 0.7% versus a revised 1.6% in January. Economists thought sales would fall 0.1%.

Another government report showed that the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment last week rose to 654,000 from a revised 645,000 the previous week. The number of Americans continuing to receive benefits rose to a record 5.3 million.

A third government report showed that household net worth, the difference between assets and liabilities, fell by $11.2 trillion last year.

Bonds: Treasury prices gained, lowering the yield on the benchmark 10-year note to 2.87% from 3% Wednesday. Treasury prices and yields move in opposite directions.

Lending rates were little changed. The 3-month Libor rate eased to 1.32% from 1.33%, while the overnight Libor rate held at 0.33%, according to Bloomberg.com. Libor is a bank-to-bank lending rate.

Other markets: In global trading, most Asian and European markets ended higher.

In currency trading, the dollar gained versus the euro and the yen.

U.S. light crude oil for April delivery settled up $4.70 to $45.27 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, a gain of over 11%.

COMEX gold for April delivery rose $13.30 to settle at $924 an ounce.

Yahoo! Finance

4:30 pm : Following a sluggish start, stocks put together an impressive performance in which the S&P 500 advanced more than 4%, providing participants with a solid follow through from Tuesday's 6.4% rebound.

This session's positive tone was inspired by better-than-expected retail sales data, renewed buying interest in bellwether General Electric, and more encouraging news from the financial sector.

Better-than-expected retail sales data suggested consumers haven't completely rolled over. February retail sales declined just 0.1%, which is better than the 0.5% decline that was expected. Excluding autos, retail sales increased 0.7%. A decline of 0.1% was expected. Meanwhile, January total sales and sales less autos were revised to show an even larger increase.

The upbeat retail sales data comes in the face of ongoing consumer headwinds, such as mounting job losses. Weekly initial claims climbed 9,000 to 654,000, which was worse than expected. Continuing claims jumped nearly 200,000 to 5.32 million, which was also worse than expected.

In other economic news, February business inventories declined 1.1%, which is essentially in-line with the consensus estimate.

Participants had little in the way of corporate headlines to digest until Standard & Poor's disclosed they lowered General Electric's (GE 9.57, +1.08) credit rating one notch to AA+ from AAA. However, the downgrade became widely expected, so investors already priced in the bad news by sending shares to multiyear lows in recent weeks. That allowed shares to rebound once the bad news was released.

Financial stocks took their cues from GE. Financials had been down more than 2% in the early going, but rallied to close with a 10% gain. Bank of America (BAC 5.85, +0.92) was a primary leader among financials. According to Dow Jones, the company stated it was profitable in the first two months of the year and the company doesn't believe it will need more government capital.

Financial stocks were also helped by hope a congressional subcommittee will suspend mark-to-market accounting rules, though no definitive statements have been made from the committee's meeting.

Stocks closed at session highs, capping three straight sessions of gains. During that time stocks have advanced nearly 11%. That is the best three-session performance since stocks rallied from their November lows, which where stocks are now trading.DJ30 +239.66 NASDAQ +54.46 SP500 +29.38 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 2210/2.15 bln/495 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2839/1.81 bln/261

3:30 pm : A fresh sense of optimism has pushed both stocks and commodities higher this session.

The major indices are trading with solid, broad-based gains after a rather slow start. The advance provides participants with an impressive follow through after Tuesday's 6.4% rebound.

Meanwhile, the CRB Commodity Index is putting together its best single-session advance of 2009. The CRB is currently up 4.1%.

Underpinning the CRB's advance, crude oil prices surged 10.5% to close pit trading at $46.79 per barrel, according to April delivery contracts. The rise in oil prices follows speculation that OPEC will slash production at its upcoming meeting. Russian officials indicated they will participate in OPEC's efforts, according to reports.

Natural gas prices also climbed higher. Contracts for April delivery pushed prices 5.1% higher before closing at $3.98 each.

Precious metals prices were bid higher as well. April gold closed the session at $923.80 per ounce, up 1.4%. Meanwhile, May silver contracts settled the session with silver priced 1.1% higher at $12.95 per ounce. DJ30 +200.87 NASDAQ +43.69 SP500 +25.50 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 2120/1.91 bln/555 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2790/1.21 bln/290

3:00 pm : Stocks continue to push higher. The S&P 500 is now trading above February lows, and even with November lows.

Financial stocks have moved back into the leadership position. Financials are now up 7.5%, thanks largely to strength in other diversified financial services companies (+12.0%).

Among diversified financial services companies, Bank of America (BAC 5.67, +0.74) is showing particular strength. Bank of America's CEO, Ken Lewis, stated that the bank was profitable in the first two months of the year, according to Dow Jones.DJ30 +199.83 NASDAQ +43.03 SP500 +24.23 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 2094/1.70 bln/578 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2759/1.08 bln/316

2:30 pm : The major indices extend their gains in a broad-based move higher. All ten sectors recently hit session highs.

Crude prices continue to rally higher, now up 11.1% to $47.08 per barrel. OPEC meets this weekend and there are some reports suggesting that Russia will start taking OPEC's lead if the cartel were to cut supply at the upcoming meeting.DJ30 +187.33 NASDAQ +37.59 SP500 +22.27 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 2036/1.52 bln/604 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2688/955 mln/362

2:00 pm : Crude oil prices have spiked. Contracts for April delivery are now pricing oil 9.0% higher at $46.15 per barrel. The move has offset crude's loss in the prior session.

The climb in oil prices is having a relatively limited impact on the energy sector. Energy stocks, as a group, are up 1.6%, so they are still underperforming the broader market on a relative basis.

Within the energy sector, integrated oil companies are up 1.4%. Their market weight is limiting the influence of oil and gas drillers, which are up 4.0%.DJ30 +152.60 NASDAQ +28.74 SP500 +17.96 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1949/1.36 bln/666 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2577/849 mln/460

1:30 pm : The major indices remain on an upward trend, but the pace of the move has slowed.

Strength in small- and mid-cap stocks is helping the Russell 2000 and S&P 400 outperform the headline indices. The Russell 2000 Small-Cap Index is currently up 3.4%, while the S&P 400 Mid-Cap Index is up 2.4%.DJ30 +136.27 NASDAQ +25.72 SP500 +15.66 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1881/1.25 bln/690 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2493/777 mln/536

1:00 pm : Market participants are bidding stocks higher after receiving better-than-expected retail sales data and news that General Electric had its credit rating lowered. The fact a congressional subcommittee is meeting to examine mark-to-market accounting rules is also helping support a positive bias.

February retail sales declined just 0.1%, which is better than the 0.5% decline that was expected. Excluding autos, retail sales increased 0.7%, though a decline of 0.1% was forecast. Meanwhile, January numbers were revised higher, showing stronger increases in total sales and sales less autos.

The better-than-expected sales data overshadowed another batch of dismal jobs data. Weekly initial claims climbed 9,000 to 654,000, topping expectations. The four-week moving now stands at 650,000, up from 643,250. Continuing claims jumped nearly 200,000 to 5.32 million, exceeding estimates. The four-week moving average is now at 5.14 million, up from roughly 5.02 million.

In other economic news, February business inventories declined 1.1%, which is essentially in-line with the consensus estimate.

News flow from the corporate space was slow until reports surfaced saying General Electric (GE 9.62, +1.13) had its credit rating lowered one notch to AA+ from AAA by Standard & Poor's. The downgrade comes on top of a recent dividend cut and quarterly earnings misses. However, many had expected the downgrade, so shares of GE had already fallen to multiyear lows as investors priced in the bad news. Now that the bad news is out, investors are bidding shares of GE higher.

With GE being treated like a financial stock, due to the company's vast exposure to capital and financial markets, its strength this session is providing leadership to the financial sector, which is up 3.6%. Financials had been down more than 2% in the early going.

The rebound provided a boost to the broader market, taking stocks meaningfully higher. Stocks are currently trading at session highs. If the advance holds, stocks will log their third straight session of gains. The S&P 500 hasn't accomplished that feat roughly one month.

Financial stocks are also being helped along as a congressional subcommittee meets to examine mark-to-market accounting rules. The rules, in their current form, require banks and financial companies to value certain assets at their current market value, which has resulted in massive write-downs. Suspending the rules could remove a substantial overhang from the financial sector. Still, a firm decision regarding the treatment of the rules is unlikely to be announced today.DJ30 +151.65 NASDAQ +27.65 SP500 +16.96 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1872/1.11 bln/686 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2487/688 mln/523

12:30 pm : Stocks continue to sport broad-based gains. The mix of the session's leading performers has been shaken up, however.

Materials traded with marked weakness earlier in the session. The sector has since rebounded to trade with a 0.6% gain.

Utilities and energy are now in the red. Both were trading with healthy gains in the early going, but now trade with respective losses of 0.2% and 0.1%.DJ30 +115.88 NASDAQ +21.25 SP500 +13.31 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1787/940 mln/709 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2295/589 mln/680

12:00 pm : Biotechs and big pharmaceutical stocks are putting together a strong performance, which is helping drive the health care sector to a 4.1% gain. Health care is now the best performing sector this session.

The advance seems to be a sort of snapback rally fueled by recent merger activity. Recall that Roche and Genentech (DNA 94.07, +1.90) finalized their deal, while Merck (MRK 23.29, +1.35) recently announced it will acquire Schering-Plough (SGP 21.81, +0.97).

Health care stocks had traded with weakness in recent sessions as investors shunned the stocks amid fear that health care reform would mean cuts to reimbursements, which would challenge profitability.DJ30 +100.03 NASDAQ +18.65 SP500 +11.26 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1755/880 mln/726 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2215/545 mln/754

11:30 am : Stocks continue to trade with solid gains, though they have pulled back from their session highs. Commodities are showing solid gains, too.

In the energy space, crude oil contracts for April delivery are pricing oil 3.5% higher at $43.75 per barrel. Natural gas contracts for April delivery are being priced 3.3% higher at $3.92 each.

Precious metals are garnering positive attention as well. Gold contracts for April delivery are pricing the yellow metal at $925.10 per ounce, up 1.5%. Silver contracts for May delivery are being priced 1.7% higher at $13.02 per ounce.

The gains by key commodities are helping drive the CRB Commodity Index to a 1.1% gain.DJ30 +69.13 NASDAQ +8.76 SP500 +7.64 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1630/730 mln/782 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2016/455 mln/892

11:00 am : Stocks recently extended their advance, taking the S&P 500 to its highest level since late February. Buyers are taking a breather, though, as stocks ease back a bit.

The advance has been broad-based. Nine of the 10 major sectors in the S&P 500 are trading higher. Financials (+2.5%) remain one of the session's strongest performing sectors. However, health care is sporting the largest advance with a 3.1% gain.

Materials are lagging. The sector is trading with a 0.5% loss amid weakness in steel stocks (-3.5%), which follows the issue of lowered estimates from analysts at JPMorgan.DJ30 +91.43 NASDAQ +13.96 SP500 +10.58 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1663/581 mln/691 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2100/366 mln/744

10:30 am : The S&P 500 is now sporting a solid 1.2% gain as stocks ascend to their best levels of the session. The move has stalled a bit, though, as the S&P 500 approaches the 730 level. The S&P 500 failed to push through 730 in the prior session, opening the door for profit takers.

Nonetheless, a rebound in financials is providing leadership to the broader market.

Financials fell under pressure early, when the sector was pushed to a loss of more than 2%. The financial sector has since reversed course, and then some, to trade with a 2.4% gain. JPMorgan Chase (JPM 21.06, +0.66), Bank of America (BAC 5.31, +0.38), and Wells Fargo (WFC 12.23, +0.35) are providing support for the third straight session.DJ30 +57.66 NASDAQ +5.35 SP500 +6.98 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1338/413 mln/899 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1698/264 mln/1046

10:00 am : Stocks have pulled up and are making their way to fresh session highs. The Nasdaq, however, has yet to make its way into the green.

Business inventories fell 1.1% in January, marking the fifth consecutive monthly decline. The drop was relatively in-line with the 1.0% decline that was expected, on average, by economists.

Inventory declines come as businesses try to align supply with demand. The move is aimed at paring stockpiles so that less cash is tied up in slow-moving inventory.

Early movers: Trading up: CVTX +28.6%, SFD +16.8%, MW +14.9%, EJ +11%, HXL +8.8%, HBI +7.3%. Trading down: STLD -24.7%, PLL -14.4%, ARCC -12.3%, JTX -11.5%, PRGN -8.3%, VIP -8.3%, PL -7.9%.DJ30 +6.13 NASDAQ -8.04 SP500 +0.68 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 814/242 mln/1263 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1072/163 mln/1562

09:45 am : The first few minutes of trading has been marked with moderate weakness. The initial decline has been broad-based, but not deep. Selling pressure is gaining momentum, though.

Financials are seeing the most selling pressure. Finanancials are currently down 2.1% ahead of a congressional meeting (10:00 AM ET) that will examine mark-to-market accounting rules.

Business inventory data for January is due at the top of the hour. The consensus estimate calls for a drop of 1.0% after inventories declined in each of the previous four months.DJ30 -36.72 NASDAQ -12.21 SP500 -4.68 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 677/126 mln/1292 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 731/97 mln/1805

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -2.60. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -3.00. Stock futures continue to point toward a flat-to-modestly lower start for the session. The tepid tone follows choppy trading in the prior session, during which the stock market grappled with profit takers that capped the session's gains. This session, participants will likely be taking their cues from a congressional hearing (10:00 AM ET) that will examine mark-to-market accounting rules. Temporary suspension of the rules could remove an overhang from many financial stocks. However, a firm conclusion regarding the treatment of the rules is unlikely to be announced today, since there have been mixed messages regarding the handling of the rules. Job markets remain weak. Weekly initial claims and continuing claims both climbed more than expected. However, advance retail sales data for February proved to be better than expected, while the January numbers were revised higher. Corporate headlines have been rather slow overall. However, reports indicate General Electric (GE) had its credit rating lowered by Standard & Poor's. The downgrade was widely expected, sending GE shares higher in premarket trading.

09:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -3.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -5.80. U.S. stock futures continue to trail fair value by a modest margin. European stocks, however, are showing considerable weakness. Germany's Dax is down 1.7% as Allianz (AZ) leads losses... France's CAC is down 1.6%. Its drop stems from broad-based weakness as decliners outnumber advancing issues by 3-to-1. Total (TOT) is a primary laggard... Britain's FTSE is down, but its losses aren't quite as deep as the other major indices. The FTSE is currently down 1.0%. Metals and mining outfits are among the weakest performers as BHP Billiton (BHP) and Anglo American (AAUK) lead losses... The MSCI Asia-Pacific Index closed with a 1.1% loss. Japan's Nikkei shed 2.4%. News of a possible merger between insurance outfits NipponKoa Insurance and Sompo Japan weighed on the group. Participants seemed to shrug off revised data showing Japan's economy shrank 3.2% last quarter. It confirmed the quarter's contraction was the sharpest since 1974. However, economists warn of further contraction... Hong Kong's Hang Seng slipped 0.6% as weak Chinese production data weighed on stocks. Chinese industrial stocks dropped after data showed output growth slowed to 3.8% in Jan. and Feb., which was below analysts' forecasts for a 6.4% decline. The news followed weak Feb. export data released on Wednesday. Meanwhile, China Southern Airlines (ZNH) fell after stating earnings for 2008 would be further hit by impairment provisions. Trading volume was the thinnest of 2009... In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite closed just 0.2% lower. That was well off early lows, though. Annual industrial output growth slowed to 3.8% in Jan. and Feb. The median forecast called for growth of 6.4% after growth came in at 5.7% in Dec.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -2.10. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -5.00. Despite another batch of dismal jobs data, better-than-expected advance retail sales data provided a brief lift to stock futures. Stock futures have since pulled back a bit. Initial jobless claims for the week ending March 7 totaled 654,000, which is more than the 644,000 initial claims that were widely expected. The prior week's initial claims were upwardly revised to 645,000. Continuing claims totaled nearly 5.32 million. Continuing claims were expected to total 5.14 million. The prior reading was revised higher to reflect roughly 5.12 million claims. Advance retail sales slipped 0.1% for February. The consensus estimate called for a 0.5% decline. The prior reading was upwardly revised to reflect a 1.8% increase. Excluding autos, retail sales for February increased 0.7%. The consensus called for a 0.1% decline. January's reading was revised higher to reflect a 1.6% increase.

08:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -2.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -7.00. Overall news flow to this point has been rather slow, but data at the bottom of the hour should give participants plenty to digest. Roche and Genentech (DNA) have reached an agreement to merge after drawn out debate between the companies. The agreement requires Roche to purchase all outstanding public interest in Genentech for $95 per share. February retail sales data is due at the bottom of the hour (8:30 AM ET). The consensus estimate calls for a 0.5% decline, but a surprise uptick similar to that of January could induce a sense of optimism. Leading up to January, monthly retail sales declined for five consecutive months. Many attribute the jump in January sales to increased promotional activity and mark downs to clear inventory. Weekly jobless claims data is also forthcoming (8:30 AM ET). The consensus forecast calls for 644,000 initial claims and 5.14 million continuing claims. Initial claims have come in above 600,000 for each of the past five weeks, reflecting the ongoing weakness of labor markets. Business inventory data for January is due later this morning (10:00 AM ET). Inventories have declined in each of the last four months as companies try to stay ahead of weakening demand. Market participants will also be awaiting developments from today's congressional committee meeting (10:00 AM ET) that will be examining mark-to-market accounting rules. A firm set of revised rules is unlikely, however.

06:20 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -7.90. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -10.80.

06:19 am : Nikkei...7198.25...-177.90...-2.40%. Hang Seng...12001.53...+70.90...+0.60%.

06:19 am : FTSE...3636.21...-57.60...-1.60%. DAX...3830.43...-83.70...-2.10%.


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 Post subject: Re: March 12th Thursday 2009
PostPosted: Thu Mar 12, 2009 9:10 pm 
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Joined: Sat Jan 10, 2009 2:06 pm
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