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 Post subject: February 23rd Monday 2009
PostPosted: Tue Feb 24, 2009 6:18 am 
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Today's trades that were posted in real-time in #FuturesTrades chat room via my IRC user name NihabaAshi are archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=20&t=113

My Trading Performance: +25.00 Emini ES points

Regards,
M.A. Perry

-----------------



Dow and S&P 500 at '97 lows
Big losses send the two major gauges to levels not seen in nearly 12 years.
By Alexandra Twin, CNNMoney.com senior writer
Last Updated: February 23, 2009: 6:11 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The Dow and S&P 500 tumbled to levels not seen in nearly 12 years Monday, as investors continue to worry that the government's efforts to slow the recession won't be sufficient.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) lost 250 points, or 3.4%, ending at the lowest point since May 7, 1997.

The S&P 500 (SPX) index lost 26 points, or 3.5%, ending at the lowest point since April 11, 1997.

The Nasdaq composite (COMP) lost 53 points, or 3.7%. The tech-fueled index has held up better than the rest of the market so far this year, closing at the lowest points since Nov. 20, 2008.

"It's fear-based selling," said Dave Hinnenkamp, CEO at KDV Wealth Management. "The fact that we're touching these multi-year lows tells you we don't know where the bottom of this thing is."

Stocks gained in the morning on reports that the government may boost its stake in Citigroup as it briefly assuaged fears that the troubled bank would have to be nationalized. But the early advance quickly petered out, as the worries of the last few weeks returned.

"There is just nobody who wants to buy right now," said Ron Kiddoo, chief investment officer at Cozad Asset Management.

"The skepticism is back," Kiddoo said. "I think we need to hear some optimistic talk from our leaders and soon."

Stocks are now extra vulnerable with the major gauges at the multi-year lows, said Gary Webb, CEO at Webb Financial Group.

"Worries about how long it will take for the government programs to have an impact and worries about the health of the banks and the autos are all there," Webb said.

But there is also just the day-to-day reality that many investors are losing money and don't know when they are going to stop losing money, he said.

After the close of trade, JPMorgan Chase said it was cutting its divided to 5 cents per share from 38 cents per share currently.

Tuesday preview: Economic reports are due on home prices and consumer confidence.

The S&P/CaseShiller Home Price index, which is due before the market open, is expected to have fallen at a record 18.25% annual pace in December, according to a consensus of economists surveyed by Briefing.com. The index tracks home prices in 20 major metropolitan areas.

The Conference Board's February Consumer Confidence index is expected to have fallen to 36.0 in February from 37.7 in January. That reading would be the lowest since the Conference Board began tracking the index in 1967.

A pair of retailers report quarterly earnings Tuesday morning. Dow component Home Depot (HD, Fortune 500) likely earned 15 cents per share versus 40 cents a year ago, according to a consensus of analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters. Target (TGT, Fortune 500) is expected to have earned 83 cents versus $1.23 a year ago.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke begins the first day of his two-day semi-annual testimony before Congress on monetary policy. On Tuesday, he speaks at a Senate Banking Committee hearing and on Wednesday at a House Financial Services Committee hearing.

On Tuesday evening, President Obama addresses the joint session of Congress, with his speech due to start at 9:00 p.m. ET.

Financials: Stocks have tumbled over the last two weeks on worries that the government won't be able to slow the recession, despite announcing a series of programs. On Friday, stocks slipped on worries that Citigroup and Bank of America might have to be taken over by the government altogether.

Some of those worries were tempered Monday on reports that the government is looking to boost its stake in Citigroup (C, Fortune 500), something that would fall short of full nationalization but would enable it to avoid bankruptcy. Should Citigroup be fully nationalized by the federal government or forced to declare bankruptcy, that would wipe out all shareholder value. Citi gained 9.7%.

Separately, Treasury said in a joint statement with other departments that the government is ready to give more money to banks if they need it. The Capital Assistance Program begins Wednesday.

The program, previously announced by Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, involves giving banks "stress tests" to determine how they are doing and whether they need more money.

Company news: Meanwhile, the Treasury is also considering its options as General Motors (GM, Fortune 500) and Chrysler continue to flounder, despite having received billions in federal aid. According to a Wall Street Journal report Monday, the administration believes the possibility of Chapter 11 bankruptcy filings by the two companies must be seriously considered. GM shares ended unchanged.

Fellow automaker, Ford Motor (F, Fortune 500) has reached a tentative deal with its union on changed to retiree health care benefits, considered to be a critical concession on the part of the UAW. Shares rallied 9.5%.

A variety of big tech stocks slumped, including Intel (INTC, Fortune 500), Microsoft (MSFT, Fortune 500), Cisco Systems (CSCO, Fortune 500), Oracle (ORCL, Fortune 500), Dell (DELL, Fortune 500) and Apple (AAPL, Fortune 500).

Yahoo (YHOO, Fortune 500) could announce a major management reorganization as early as Wednesday, although more likely next week, according to a published report Monday. Yahoo shares fell 1.4%.

Market breadth was negative. On the New York Stock Exchange, losers beat winners by almost seven to one on volume of 1.61 billion shares. On the Nasdaq, decliners topped advancers by seven to two on volume of 2.07 billion shares.

Economists: A leading group of economists expect a deeper recession in the first half of the year followed by a modest recovery in the second half and a bigger recovery in 2010.

Reports are due later this week on housing, manufacturing and gross domestic product growth.

Bonds: Treasury prices inched higher, with the yield on the benchmark 10-year note falling to 2.77% from 2.79% Friday. Treasury prices and yields move in opposite directions.

Other markets: In global trading, most Asian markets ended mixed, while European shares ended lower.

In currency trading, the dollar gained versus the euro and the yen.

U.S. light crude oil for April delivery fell $1.59 to settle at $38.44 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

COMEX gold for April delivery fell $7.20 to settle at $995 an ounce.

Yahoo! Finance

4:30 pm : Monday's session began on a promising note as stocks opened with solid gains following word the government may help Citigroup increase its tangible equity, while several government agencies pledged their support for the banking system as Treasury prepares to begin a series of stress tests for banks. The upward move was short-lived, though, as participants refocused on the lack of concrete solutions for the broader banking system.

In the early going, stocks were up 1%. Participants reacted positively to word the government may convert its preferred Citigroup (C 2.14, +0.19) shares into common shares. Though the government could hold as much as a 40% stake in the company, which would drastically dilute existing shareholders, such a move would bolster Citi's tangible equity and improve the bank's ability to absorb losses.

The announcement comes as Treasury's Capital Assistance Program is set to begin Wednesday. The plan aims to assess the health of banks.

Separately, government agencies pledged their support for a strong financial system in a joint statement. The government will provide temporary capital if it is unavailable from private sources. The announcement suggests the government will provide the banking system the capital it needs to survive, while helping to keep credit flowing so that economic conditions can recover.

Financial stocks reacted positively to the announcements, climbing to a gain of 4.6%, but finished with a 3.0% loss as investors recognized the plans may help bank capital ratios, but they won't solve their troubles.

To that point, CNBC reported AIG (AIG 0.53, -0.01) is in discussions with the government to secure additional funds so it can keep operating after next Monday, when it will report the largest loss in corporate history. Sources say the losses will be near, if not exceeding, $60 billion.

The broader market declined steadily throughout the session, closing down 3.5% at session lows. That handed the Dow its lowest intraday and closing levels since October 1997, taking out the lows set in the prior session. The S&P 500 settled just two points above its November lows. The Nasdaq remains 7% above its November lows.

Despite the broad losses, automakers gained as Ford (F 1.73, +0.15) reached a tentative agreement with the UAW regarding funding for benefits. Ford is expected to be able to use a mix of cash and stock. Meanwhile, The Wall Street Journal stated Treasury consultants are lining up funds in the event they are needed to finance bankruptcy at General Motors (GM 1.77, +0.00) or Chrysler.

There were neither market moving earnings announcements nor economic data this session. Tomorrow is also light on earnings and economic data, but Fed Chairman Bernanke will provide his semiannual monetary policy report to the Senate Banking Committee. He follows with a semiannual monetary policy report to the House Financial Services Committee Wednesday. DJ30 -250.89 NASDAQ -53.51 SP500 -26.72 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 547/2.05 bln/2158 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 417/1.61 bln/2694

3:30 pm : April crude oil contracts hit a high of $41.49 per barrel early in the morning, but sold off for the remainder of the session. Futures contracts finished the session at $38.20 per barrel, down 4.6%.

March natural gas ended a choppy session up 1% to $4.05 per contract after bouncing between its session high of $4.16 and session low of $4.01.

April gold closed down 0.7% to $995.50 per ounce after trading as low as $976.20 per ounce on the session. This pullback does not come as a surprise following the impressive run the precious metal had last week. Gold futures are still up 7.3% for the month.

March silver managed to break out of the red for only about 90 minutes during the session. The March futures contracts sold off throughout the session and finished at $14.45, down less than 0.3% after being down as much as 2.7% earlier in the session. DJ30 -222.49 NASDAQ -44.22 SP500 -23.65 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 614/1.6 bln/2060 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 455/1.2 bln/2646

3:00 pm : Sellers continue to keep the stock market in check. The major indices have retreated to new session lows.

The downward move has put the S&P 500 a few points below the 750 level, which had provided support earlier in the session. If the S&P 500 holds at its current level, it would mark a new multiyear closing low. The S&P 500 still has yet to breach its November intraday low of 741, however.

The move lower has been broad-based. Financials recently rallied, but the move proved unsustainable as the sector is now down 1.8%, near earlier session lows.DJ30 -213.14 NASDAQ -45.44 SP500 -23.20 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 641/1.44 bln/2016 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 455/1.04 bln/2629

2:30 pm : The S&P 500 has pared some of its losses to trade at its best level of the afternoon. The lift comes after the S&P 500 slipped back to the 750 level, but again was met with support.

Financials are the primary driver behind the move. Financials have rallied from a loss of more than 2% to now trade with a 1.3% gain.DJ30 -112.62 NASDAQ -27.97 SP500 -12.44 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 779/1.29 bln/1849 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 670/928 mln/2400

2:00 pm : Oil prices are back under pressure. Crude oil futures had traded in positive territory in the early going, but are currently down 4.6% to $38.20 per barrel.

Softer oil prices and weakness in the broader market are dragging the energy sector to a 2.7% loss. Even integrated oil giants Exxon Mobil (XOM 70.19, -1.04) and ConocoPhilips (COP 38.26, -1.18) have surrendered early strength to trade markedly lower. Both companies had their shares upgraded by analysts at Deutsche Bank.DJ30 -168.29 NASDAQ -39.25 SP500 -19.23 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 674/1.15 bln/1954 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 510/824 mln/2554

1:30 pm : The S&P 500 recently took out the 750 level, but received support and has since pulled up a bit. At its session low, the S&P 500 was less than 10 points above its November low of 741.

All 10 of the major sectors in the S&P 500 remain in the red.

The consumer staples sector (-1.7%) and industrials sector (-3.3%) are both trading at new 52-week lows.DJ30 -142.47 NASDAQ -33.95 SP500 -16.47 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 694/1.05 bln/1914 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 564/751 mln/2494

1:05 pm : The stock market's recent string of losses is being extended as last week's unease has carried into Monday's trading. Concern remains rooted in the banking system.

Stocks actually began the session in positive territory as participants reacted positively to word the government may convert its existing preferred shares in Citigroup (C 2.13, +0.18) into common shares. Such a move could give the government as much as a 40% stake in the company, which would drastically dilute existing shareholders.

Concerns of nationalization remain real, so while the move bolsters Citi's tangible equity, it keeps the government's stake below 50%.

The announcement came before the Capital Assistance Program begins on Wednesday. The program will evaluate the capital needs of banks, and was part of the program announced by Treasury Secretary Geithner to help restore the health of banks.

Government agencies reiterated their support for a strong financial system by issuing a joint statement this morning, pledging to help keep credit flowing so that economic conditions can recover.

Still, the developments weren't enough to restore confidence in financial stocks. Financials quickly reversed gains of nearly 4% to send the sector lower. Financials now trade with a 2.0% loss.

The reversal has taken its toll on the broader market, sending stocks to fresh session lows.

Automakers are faring well, though. Ford (F 1.72, +0.14) is leading the way after it reached a tentative agreement with the UAW that will allow Ford to use a mix of cash and stock for benefits funding.

Meanwhile, The Wall Street Journal stated Treasury consultants are lining up funds in the event they are needed to finance bankruptcy at General Motors (GM 1.85, +0.08) or Chrysler.

There has been little in the way of earnings news this session. Honeywell (HON 27.95, -0.89) offered an upbeat full-year earnings outlook, Garmin (GRMN 16.59, +1.42) reported quarterly earnings results that missed Wall Street's consensus estimate, while Campbell Soup (CPB 28.34, -1.11) reported better-than-expected earnings. Campbell Soup issued an upbeat forecast as well. Humana (HUM 30.63, -9.91) reaffirmed its in-line earnings guidance for 2009, but there is concern regarding pricing of premiums.

There is no economic data due today.DJ30 -161.76 NASDAQ -36.67 SP500 -18.54 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 666/959 mln/1929 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 543/695 mln/2502

12:30 pm : Stocks continue to trade near their session lows after the pace of the descent has slowed. More than 80% of the companies listed in the S&P 500 are trading with losses.

Even shares of Honeywell (HON 28.23, -0.61) remain under pressure after providing an upbeat earnings outlook during during a presentation today. The company continues to expect first quarter earnings to range from $0.50 to $0.60 per share, which is in-line with the consensus first quarter estimate. Though the company lowered its full-year revenue estimate, it expects full-year earnings to range from $3.20 to $3.55 per share, which exceeds analysts' current estimate of 3.10 per share.DJ30 -115.33 NASDAQ -30.99 SP500 -13.95 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 720/838 mln/1829 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 668/616 mln/2346

12:00 pm : The major indices have drifted to fresh session lows. The Dow has yet to breach the multiyear intraday lows it set in the prior session, though. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 remains above its November lows. The Nasdaq is also off its November lows.

Stocks began the session sporting solid gains. The turn lower came as participants rekindled selling efforts in financial stocks. Financials had been up nearly 4% in the initial minutes of trading. The sector is now down 0.8%.

Investors in financials reacted positively to word the government may convert its preferred shares in Citigroup (C 2.13, +0.18) into common shares, but participants soon refocused their attention on the government's lack of solutions to help shore up the broader financial system. DJ30 -97.57 NASDAQ -31.29 SP500 -12.51 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 755/746 mln/1772 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 739/557 mln/2263

11:30 am : Shares of Nasdaq component Garmin (GRMN 17.19, +2.02) are spiking higher this session. Its gains come even though the company reported quarterly earnings results that missed Wall Street's consensus estimate.

During its conference call, Garmin's management indicated that in the fourth quarter they found certain adjustments for sales programs and price protections that pushed their earnings results below their early guidance. For this reason, the report came two days ahead of schedule.

The company declined to offer specific guidance for 2009, but did indicate it anticipates declines in average selling prices will moderate during the year as competitors exit the market and inventories are pared, which will ease margin pressure.

Despite Garmin's performance this session, the Nasdaq is being weighed down by weakness in tech stocks like Microsoft (MSFT 17.57, -0.43) and Cisco (CSCO 14.63, -0.45). Large-cap tech has been underpinning the swings in the Nasdaq for the last several sessions.DJ30 -73.99 NASDAQ -25.16 SP500 -9.36 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 782/633 mln/1715 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 829/484 mln/2131

11:00 am : All 10 of the major sectors in the S&P 500 are now trading with losses.

Industrials (-2.5%) are among this morning's worst performing sectors. The group continues to be weighed down by shares of General Electric (GE 8.93, -0.45). General Electric's stock price has taken out new multiyear lows this session, eclipsing the lows set last week. GE shares last traded below $9.00 in April 1995.

Weakness in GE continues to stem from concern regarding the health and earnings power in the firm's capital finance arm. That has led to speculation the company may lose its AAA credit rating or may have to cut its dividend. Analysts at Deutsche Bank have encouraged further selling pressure this session by lowering their price target for shares of GE.DJ30 -61.09 NASDAQ -23.59 SP500 -8.59 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 809/535 mln/1639 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 865/413 mln/2055

10:30 am : All three major indices are now trading with losses. Despite the pullback, financial stocks continue to trade with handsome gains; the sector is currently up 1%.

Within the financial sector, diversified banks are up 8.7%, other diversified financial services companies are up 6.1%, and regional banks are up 2.7%.

The gain by regional banks comes amid strength in PNC Financial (PNC 24.50, +1.27) and BB&T (BBT 15.21, +0.30). However, weakness is being seen among Huntington Bancshares (HBAN 1.21, -0.15), Regions Financial (RF 2.78, -0.07), and Zions (ZION 8.57, -0.43), which were all downgraded by analysts at Citigroup.DJ30 -18.72 NASDAQ -17.83 SP500 -4.21 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 940/390 mln/1406 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1056/310 mln/1813

10:05 am : The major indices continue to pull back. Early gains are turning into losses. Meanwhile, several key commodities are trading in mixed fashion.

Gold contracts are down after gold prices eclipsed the $1,000 mark last week. Gold is down 1.5% to $986.60 per ounce. Meanwhile, contracts for silver are pricing silver roughly 1.8% lower at $14.22 per ounce.

Lower precious metals prices are driving shares of gold and silver companies lower. The SPDR Gold Trust (GLD 96.69, -1.11) is down, as is IShares Silver Trust (SLV 14.05, -0.20). Barrick Gold (ABX 35.53, -1.36) is under pressure from lower prices and an analyst downgrade ahead of the opening bell.

Crude oil futures prices are trading fractionally higher at $40.10 per barrel. Natural gas contracts are trading 1.7% higher at $4.07 each.

Despite the mixed action among key commodities, the CRB Commodity Index is up 0.9%.DJ30 +6.05 NASDAQ -14.24 SP500 -1.31 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1003/230 mln/1253 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1464/204 mln/1329

09:45 am : Stocks are holding on to relatively solid gains, but have pulled back a bit since the initial minutes of trading. Early leadership is coming from the financial sector, which is up 1.8% after pulling back from a gain of nearly 4%.

Investors are bidding shares of Citigroup (C 2.14, +0.19) more than 9% higher. Shares in the financial services giant are garnering interest amid reports that the government may convert its preferred shares in Citi into common shares.

Citigroup's advance lifts it off multiyear lows, which were registered last week amid rising fears that efforts to nationalize banks could be focused on Citi.DJ30 +45.32 NASDAQ -2.30 SP500 +3.71 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1287/136 mln/854 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1650/136 mln/1060

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +10.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +8.80. Without any market-moving earnings announcements or economic data hitting the wires, market participants are focusing their attention on word the government may convert its existing preferred shares in Citigroup (C) into common shares, which could increase the government's stake in the financial services giant to as much as 40%. Such a move would come at no additional cost to taxpayers, but would dilute existing shareholders. Citi's peer Bank of America (BAC) indicated it is not engaged in talks regarding an increased government stake. Reports say the company also issued statements attempting to calm workers' concerns that any nationalization efforts would not first target the bank. The news keeps financial stocks in focus as investors await further detail regarding the government's plans to restore the banking system. To that point, a joint statement was issued this morning by Treasury, FDIC, Federal Reserve Board, and other government agencies regarding the commitment of the goverment to support a strong financial system. The Capital Assurance Program will begin Feb. 25. Meanwhile, The Wall Street Journal stated Treasury consultants are lining up funds in the event they become needed to finance bankruptcy at General Motors (GM) or Chrysler. Stock futures point to an upward start as only a few minutes remain before opening bell.

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +11.60. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +11.30. Traders continue to lift stock futures, which suggests the stock market will begin the session in the green. The Treasury, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, the Office of Thrift Supervision, and the Federal Reserve Board issued a statement regarding its support for a strong, resilient financial system. Also, the Capital Assistance Program will be initiated February 25 as the capital needs of major banking institutions will be evaluated under a more challenging economic environment. Should additional capital be needed, institutions have an opportunity to turn first to private sources of capital. Otherwise, the temporary capital buffer will be made available from the government. The capital provides a cushion against future losses. Any government capital will be in the form of mandatory convertible preferred shares, which would be converted into common equity shares as needed. Previous capital injections under TARP will also be eligible to be exchanged for the mandatory convertible preferred shares. Separately, the cost of borrowing dollars continues to consolidate as the markets await further information about possible bank nationalization. However, news regarding the possibility the government may boost its stake in Citigroup (C) has helped pull the Overnight Libor down to just below 0.27%, its lowest level since January 29th, but that still lies above the 0.00% to 0.25% Fed target rate. The effective Fed Funds Target rate declined over the past few days to 0.20%.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +8.90. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +9.80. U.S. stocks remain in position to begin the session in positive ground, according to the futures market. European stocks are also trading higher. Germany's DAX is up 1.2% with leadership from insurance giants Muenchener Rueckver and Allianz (AZ). Automakers Volkswagen and Daimler are trading as laggards, though. France's CAC is up 1.3%. Primary leaders include Total (TOT), BNP Paribas, and Sanofi Aventis. ArcelorMittal (MT) is trading as a laggard after its shares were downgraded by analysts at UBS. Meanwhile, Britain's FTSE is up 0.9% with help from financial giant HSBC (HSB) and Anglo American (AAUK). Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A) is trading as a laggard, however. Analysts at Barclays recently rated shares of RDS.A at Underperform. In Asia, The MSCI Asia-Pacific Index closed 0.6% higher. Japan's Nikkei closed 0.5% lower amid ongoing credit fears. The index did recover from its worst levels following a report that the U.S. may up its common stock holding in Citigroup by converting preferred shares. Select finanical outfits still suffered, though, after indicating they will issue new capital raises. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng closed 3.8% higher as traders reacted to the Citigroup news. Energy shares recovered as crude held above $40 per barrel in Asian trade.

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +6.90. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +8.30. Stock futures currently lead fair value, suggesting an upward start to the session. Citigroup (C) is engaged in talks that could expand the government's stake in the financial services giant, according to The Wall Street Journal. The report indicated the government could take as much as 40% of Citi's common stock. Shares of C have been gyrating during premarket action, but are now trading flat at $1.95 per share ahead of the opening bell. Shares of peer Bank of America (BAC) are trading more than 1.5% higher at $3.85 per share. In a separate article, The Wall Street Journal reported Treasury advisers are lining up funds for a possible bankruptcy loan for General Motors (GM) and privately-held Chrysler. The article placed the amount of financing at $40 billion. Shares of GM are up more than 6% to $1.88 per share in premarket trading. Humana (HUM) reaffirmed its earnings outlook for fiscal 2009; the company expects earnings to range from $5.90 to $6.10 per share, while analysts peg 2009 earnings at $5.93 per share.

06:31 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +9.70. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +12.80.

06:31 am : Nikkei...7376.16...-40.20...-0.50%. Hang Seng...13175.10...+475.90...+3.80%.

06:31 am : FTSE...3909.04...+2.00...+0.50%. DAX...4067.87...+53.10...+1.30%.


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