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 Post subject: February 20th Friday 2009
PostPosted: Fri Feb 20, 2009 6:17 pm 
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Today's trades that were posted in real-time in #FuturesTrades chat room via my IRC user name NihabaAshi are archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=20&t=112

My Trading Performance: +37.75 Emini ES points

Regards,
M.A. Perry

------------------------



4:30 pm : The stock market was down more than 3% before rallying late in the afternoon as fears for the banking system were calmed.

Stocks had been under heavy selling pressure since the start of the session. Weakness was underpinned by concern that two of the nation's largest financial services companies, Bank of America (BAC 3.79, -0.14) and Citigroup (C 1.95, -0.56), may have to be taken over by the government. Though a Bank of America spokesman defended the company's health, concerns remained as Senator Dodd suggested that nationalization of a bank may happen.

Shares of C and BAC fell to new multiyear lows, dragging the financial sector more than 9% lower.

Financials rallied all the way back into positive ground after word surfaced that the White House believes the correct way to run the bank system is through private ownership, which likely helped calm fears of bank nationalization.

There is also speculation Treasury will soon release further details of its financial stability plan, though a spokesperson wouldn't comment.

Financial stocks were further helped by rumor that bank investor JC Flowers is buying preferred shares in big banks, specifically BAC. BAC was also called one of the best buys ever seen in the NYSE by an analyst on CNBC.

The positive developments induced short-sellers to cover their positions, helping the financial sector turn higher. The broader market rallied in response.

The Dow and the S&P 500 both made their way to the session's unchanged mark, while the Nasdaq turned positive.

The move proved unsustainable, though. All three major indices finished with a loss. The Dow set a new multiyear closing low; the prior closing low was set Thursday.

The Nasdaq Composite incurred the least severe decline of the headline indices, thanks to support from large-cap tech names. The strength in large-cap tech helped the Nasdaq 100 finish the session 0.4% higher.

Still, financial stocks continue to represent the biggest concern for the broader market, and will continue to do so in the coming week.

Lowe's (LOW 15.86, -1.12) traded lower after reporting earnings that fell short of estimates, along with downside guidance. JC Penney (JCP 15.10, +0.08) beat earnings estimates, but forecast a deeper loss than analysts are projecting. Their reports received little attention by the broader market.

The January CPI data didn't contain too many surprises as total CPI was up 0.3%, in-line with expectations, while core CPI was up 0.2% versus the consensus estimate that called for a 0.1% increase. Share volume was high this session.

More than 2 billion shares traded hands on the NYSE this session, but that was largely due to this being an options expiration day. DJ30 -100.28 NASDAQ -1.59 NQ100 +0.4% R2K -1.4% SP400 -0.8% SP500 -8.89 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1924/788/2.15 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2341/766/2.12 bln

3:30 pm : Gold garnered some of the strongest attention from commodities traders this session. Contracts for April delivery settled the session with gold priced at $1002.20 per ounce. That reflects a jump of 2.6% from the prior session's close.

Silver also attracted investors seeking safety. Contracts for March delivery closed the session with silver priced at $14.49 per ounce. Silver gained nearly 4% from the prior session's closing price.

Crude oil prices succumbed to continued selling pressure. Crude futures contracts for March delivery closed pit trading at $39.30 per barrel, which reflects a fractional loss from the prior session. March crude futures contracts expired at the close of pit trading.

April crude futures ended the session at $39.90, which is actually a dime more than where the contracts closed the prior session.

Natural gas contracts closed the session at $3.99 each. Natural gas closed the prior session at $4.06 per contract. Before this session, 2002 was the last time natural gas contracts traded for less than $4 each. DJ30 -129.83 NASDAQ -8.57 SP500 -13.51 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1924/770/2.15 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2511/596/1.67 bln

3:00 pm : The Dow and S&P 500 extended their rally all the way back to the session's unchanged mark, but were met with resistance.

Financial stocks made their way into the green, but were unable to hold the gain. The move had completely reversed an earlier loss of 9%. Financials have eased back into the red, though. They currently trade with a 1.0% loss.

Meanwhile, telecom (+1.5%), tech (+0.1%), and materials (+0.3%) are sporting gains.DJ30 -63.40 NASDAQ -0.23 SP500 -6.80 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1788/866/1.97 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2352/753/1.53 bln

2:35 pm : The major indices rally, with the Nasdaq now posting a slight gain, as two headlines give a large boost to financials. Dow Jones reported that the White House said a privately-held bank system is "the correct way to go" and that it "strongly believes" in the private banking system.

Meanwhile, Bank of America (BAC 3.49, -0.44) gets an added boost as Rochdale Financial Analyst Richard Bove, on CNBC, says Bank of America is one of best buys he's ever seen on the NYSE.

Financials were down as much as 9.0% compared to their current loss of 2.5%.DJ30 -68.54 NASDAQ +0.23 SP500 -8.07 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1893/775/1.73 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2490/625/1.36 bln

2:00 pm : Stocks are pulling off their session lows, but losses remain deep and widespread. Seven of the 10 sectors in the S&P 500 are trading with losses in excess of 1%.

Education stocks have been standing out amid the broad declines. Career Education (CECO 23.01, +3.35) is leading the way after reporting better-than-expected earnings results. It did disclose that its preliminary cohort default rate was up modestly in 2007 from 2006. Concerns regarding substantially higher cohort default rates sent shares of for-profit education companies lower in the prior session. Education services stocks are currently up 3.6% as a group.DJ30 -155.16 NASDAQ -18.96 SP500 -17.99 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 2072/586/1.51 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2774/337/1.19 bln

1:30 pm : The major indices remain under stiff, negative pressure. The selling effort has put the Dow at its lowest level since 2001. The S&P 500 has yet to breach its November 2008 closing low (752) and its November 2008 intraday low (741).

Share trading volume has been high this session. More than 1 million shares have traded hands on the NYSE. The increase in volume comes as stock options expire at this session's close.DJ30 -193.94 NASDAQ -22.47 SP500 -21.66 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 2107/542/1.39 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2824/275/1.09 bln

1:05 pm : The Dow is down to its lowest level of the session as 11 of its 30 components fall to new 52-week lows. Bank of America (BAC 3.03, -0.90) and Citigroup (C 1.89, -0.62) are the primary laggards in the blue chip index as investors remain uncertain of the fate banks face.

Investors continue to fear that banks may have to be nationalized. That has sent the financial sector down 7.0%. Concerns are primarily focused on two of the nation's largest financial services companies, Bank of America and Citigroup.

A Bank of America spokesman issued comments defending the company's health, but that hasn't really quelled concern. A separate report indicated Senator Dodd suggested that nationalization of a bank may possibly happen, though the government is trying to avoid bank nationalization.

Weakness in the financial sector has bled into the broader market. In turn, investors continue to pursue the relative safety of precious metals. March gold contracts are trading 1.8% higher at $998.00 per ounce. April contracts already breached the $1,000 mark earlier this session, but are now trading near $1004 per ounce, up roughly 2.7%.

A mixed bag of corporate announcements has failed to help stem the session's losses. Lowe's (LOW 15.81, -1.17) reported earnings that missed expectations, and issued downside guidance. JC Penney (JCP 14.72, -0.20) beat earnings estimates, but forecast a deeper loss than analysts are projecting.

There haven't been any Fed speakers to note and the January CPI data was the only item on the economic calendar. Consumer prices were up, but generally in-line with the consensus forecast. DJ30 -177.78 NASDAQ -18.92 SP500 -20.12 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 2026/586/1.26 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2789/305/987 mln

12:30 pm : Uncertainty continues to fuel weakness in stocks. That has pushed investors into such safe havens as gold and Treasuries.

Contracts for the March delivery of gold are pricing gold at $996.30 per ounce, up 2.1%. The SPDR Gold Trust (GLD 97.93, +2.16) is trading with a similar gain.

Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury Note is up 36 ticks, which has pushed its yield down to 2.72%. The 30-year Bond is up 83 ticks, which has pushed its yield down to 3.53%.DJ30 -118.28 NASDAQ -8.54 SP500 -12.99 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1922/652/1.12 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2696/378/881 mln

12:00 pm : Telecom continues to trade with strength while the broader market lags. The telecom sector is up 1.5%.

Integrated telecom giants AT&T (T 23.64, +0.45) and Verizon (VZ 28.52, +0.53) continue to provide the most support to the sector. According to Reuters, shares of AT&T and Verizon were upgraded to Buy from Neutral by analysts at Goldman Sachs.

Conversely, financial stocks continue to underperform. The financial sector is currently down 6.0%, just above its session low.

Banks and diversified financial services companies remain the primary laggards in the financial sector. Wells Fargo (WFC 9.73, -2.28), JPMorgan Chase (JPM 19.24, -1.36), Bank of America (BAC 3.22, -0.71), and Citigroup (C 1.96, -0.55) are among the weakest performers. Shares of WFC, BAC, and C are at their lowest prices in years. DJ30 -135.96 NASDAQ -9.77 SP500 -14.50 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1903/645/1.00 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2703/361/801 mln

11:30 am : Stocks recently fell to fresh session lows. The stock market is currently down more than 50% from its record high, which was reached in October 2007.

The dramatic drop has prompted many investors to ask whether stocks are oversold. At its current level, the S&P 500 is trading at 10.5x trailing earnings. During the past 10 years the S&P 500 has averaged a price-to-trailing earnings multiple of 20.4x.

Meanwhile, the earnings yield for the S&P 500 stands at 9.5%, which is nearly 700 basis points more than the benchmark 10-year Treasury Note is currently yielding.DJ30 -146.39 NASDAQ -10.90 SP500 -16.26 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1834/665/866 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2709/342/713 mln

11:00 am : This session's trading has been choppy thus far. The Dow remains under pressure after closing the prior session at its lowest level since 2002.

The S&P 500 remains off its November closing low (752) and November intraday low (741), though. Traders believe a test of these levels and failure to secure support could result in fresh weakness. Meanwhile, should stocks stage an advance, traders are eyeing the 800 level as a key technical line for the S&P 500.DJ30 -99.24 NASDAQ -6.87 SP500 -10.72 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1650/787/723 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2552/444/612 mln

10:30 am : The major indices began to pare their losses, but quickly fell under renewed selling pressure. Stocks are off their session lows, but continue to trade with widespread weakness.

The Nasdaq is holding up relatively well to this session's selling pressure. Its losses have been limited by the strength of Microsoft (MSFT 18.03, +0.12), Intel (INTC 12.88, +0.20), and Cisco (CSCO 15.12, +0.08). The relative strength of such large-cap tech names has also helped the Nasdaq partially fend off selling efforts in recent weeks; the Nasdaq is down nearly 9% year-to-date, while the Dow is down nearly 16% year-to-date and the S&P 500 is down almost 15% year-to-date.DJ30 -67.54 NASDAQ -2.85 SP500 -7.63 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1607/755/557 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2382/558/503 mln

10:00 am : Crude oil contracts for March delivery are down 4.3% to $37.80 per barrel. The March contracts expire at the close of pit trading. Contracts for April delivery are also seeing selling pressure. April crude futures are down 3.2% to $39.80 per barrel.

Natural gas contracts for March delivery are trading lower. The contracts were recently quoted 1.2% lower at $4.03 each. Natural gas had traded below $4 in overnight action, which is the first time contracts traded below $4 since December 2002.

Weakness in energy-related commodities is still underpinned by slower global economic conditions. Such concerns, along with tenuous conditions in the financial system, also continue to weigh on stocks. The S&P 500 is currently down more than 1%, but down almost 15% year-to-date.

In turn, investors continue to pursue the relative safety of precious metals. March gold contracts are closing in on the $1,000 mark as it trades 2.2% higher at $998.00 per ounce. April contracts already breached the $1,000 mark earlier this session, but the contracts are now trading near $990 per ounce, up roughly 1.4%. Meanwhile, silver prices are trading up more than 3% to almost $14.40 per ounce.

Early movers: Trading up: STRN +35.4%, CAB 30.0%, MENT 21.2%, SOAP +17.7%, IBI +15.5%, MXWL +13.8%, FAZ +13.8%, RRGB +13.3%, PUK +12.3, CECO +10.7%, KND +9.6%, SLW +8.8%, IAG +8.3%. Trading down: CQB -28.8%, WCG -19.6%, PMACA -19.4%, WMGI -19.3%, CBR -19%, BAC -17.6%, C -17.5%, ING -15.3%, AXA -13.7%, AAUK -13.4%, WRE -13.1%, FAS -12.9%, WFC -10.5%, UBS -10.3%, HIG -10.1%, TCK -10.1%, EXM -9.9%, PGF -9.7%.DJ30 -87.06 NASDAQ -5.98 SP500 -9.11 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1550/687/337 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2433/433/378 mln

09:40 am : Stocks have fallen under a concerted selling effort. Weakness is rather deep and broad-based.

Nine of the 10 sectors in the S&P 500 are trading lower. Financials remain the weakest performing sector. Financials are down 5.8% with considerable losses being exhibited by diversified banks (-10.9%) and other diversified financial services companies (-11.1%).

Telecom is the only sector trading with a gain. Telecom is currently up 0.9% with help from AT&T (T 23.53, +0.34) and Verizon (VZ 28.31, +0.32).DJ30 -124.33 NASDAQ -17.73 SP500 -13.50 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1654/456/188 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2426/228/281 mln

09:20 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -15.60. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -17.30. Market participants prepare to begin the trading session with broad-based weakness. The downward bias comes after the Dow closed the prior session at its lowest level since 2002. The rather portentous close, combined with existing concerns and negative headlines, is exacerbating weakness in overseas markets, which is now being fed upon by U.S. traders. However, since the prior session’s close didn’t come with much conviction, investors will monitor the intensity of early pressure and whether stocks can shake off the weakness. There hasn’t been much data to convince investors they should come of the sidelines and bid stocks higher, though. Financials remain a primary area of concern, positioning Bank of America (BAC) and Citigroup (C) to open at fresh multiyear lows. Shares of BAC were quoted at $3.59 per share in premarket trading, while C was quoted at 2.26 per share in premarket trading. In earnings news, Lowe's (LOW) reported earnings that missed expectations, and issued downside guidance. LOW is trading 4% lower at $16.30 per share in premarket trading. JC Penney (JCP) beat earnings estimates, but forecast a deeper loss than analysts are projecting. Shares of JCP were quoted 1.8% lower at $14.65 per share in premarket trading. Barrick Gold (ABX) has garnered interest ahead of the opening bell by topping earnings estimates; its shares were recently trading 3.2% higher at $37.60 per share in premarket action. Last evening, Intuit (INTU) announced better-than-expected earnings, and issued in-line guidance. INTU is expected to open the session roughly 4.4% higher near $22.20 per share, based on premarket trading prices. Economic data was light this morning. January consumer prices were largely in step with expectations.

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -13.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -13.80. Foreign markets are trading lower, feeding upon weakness exhibited by U.S. stocks in the prior session. In Europe, Germany's DAX is down 3.5% amid broad-based weakness. Of the 30 companies listed in the DAX, only one, Fresenius Medical, is trading with a gain. The company recently reported an increase in net profits. Meanwhile, France's CAC is off by 2.9%; it is also trading with broad-based weakness. Axa is a primary laggard this session. Axa is down as downbeat broker notes weigh on its shares. The company's latest results have also failed to alleviate fears of a capital raise by the company. Britain's FTSE is down 2.3%. Anglo American (AAUK) is under pressure after reporting a lower profit, along with plans to cut its dividend and workforce. Energy stocks like BP PLC (BP) and Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A) are also under pressure. In Asia, the MSCI Asia-Pacific Index closed 2.1% lower. Japan's Nikkei closed 1.9% lower as bank shares stumbled and a weaker yen failed to lift exporters. Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (MTU) was a key laggard. Hong Kong's Hang Seng closed 2.5% lower as heavyweight HSBC (HBC) fell to its lowest level in 10 years. HSBC fell as concerns about worse-than-expected earnings and recapitalization grew.

08:30 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -9.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -9.80. Stock futures remain on track for a downward open, though improved from earlier levels. The January Consumper Price Index showed a 0.3% increase, which is in-line with expectations. The prior reading was revised downward to reflect a 0.8% decrease. Excluding food and energy, which often move in volatile fashion, consumer prices were up 0.2%. The core rate was expected to increase just 0.1%. The prior reading was flat. Year-over-year, January consumer prices were unchanged. Core prices were up 1.7% year-over-year, though they were expected to increase 1.5% year-over-year.

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -11.70. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -13.30. Stock futures point to a markedly lower open, which would extend the prior session's losses. Lowe's (LOW) reported fourth quarter earnings of $0.11 per share, which was a penny short of the consensus estimate of $0.12 per share. Lowe's issued downside earnings guidance. The company forecast first quarter earnings from $0.23 to $0.27 per share. The first quarter consensus estimate is pegged at $0.32 per share. Lowe's expects fiscal 2010 earnings to range from $1.04 to $1.20 per share, which fails to meet the consensus estimate of $1.27 per share. Barrick Gold (ABX) posted adjusted earnings of $0.32 per share for the fourth quarter. Analysts were expecting $0.30 per share. JC Penney (JCP) brought in an adjusted $0.94 per share during its latest quarter. The results bested the consensus estimate of $0.92 per share. The company expects to post a loss in the first quarter that ranges from $0.30 to $0.20 per share, which is worse than the $0.19 per share loss that analysts are projecting. Due at the bottom of the hour is the latest consumer price data.

06:29 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -9.90. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -13.80.

06:29 am : Nikkei...7416.38...-141.30...-1.90%. Hang Seng...12699.17...-324.20...-2.50%.

06:29 am : FTSE...3918.01...-100.40...-2.50%. DAX...4082.82...-132.20...-3.20%.


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