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 Post subject: February 19th Thursday 2009
PostPosted: Thu Feb 19, 2009 5:56 pm 
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Joined: Sat Jan 10, 2009 2:06 pm
Posts: 4335
Location: Canada
Today's trades that were posted in real-time in #FuturesTrades chat room via my IRC user name NihabaAshi are archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=20&t=111

My Trading Performance: +13.75 Emini ES points

Regards,
M.A. Perry

------------------------



4:30 pm : Stocks were unable to hold early gains as sellers entered the action and pushed the Dow below its November lows. The Dow logged its lowest intraday level and closing level since 2002.

Meanwhile, the S&P 500 has managed to hold above its November closing low of 752. Traders have their set on 800 as a key technical level since a break above 800 could prompt short-covering, while a test and failure to break above 800 could lead to fresh weakness. This session's weakness came after stocks began the session with broad-based gains.

Stocks had been up more than 1% in the early going. The initial advance was largely attributable to short-covering as that followed flat trading in the prior session. However, a renewed selling effort in financial stocks fueled pressure in the broader market.

Financials were up much as 2.4%, but finished 5.2% lower. Dow components Bank of America (BAC 3.93, -0.64) and Citigroup (C 2.51, -0.40) were primary laggards. C fell to a new multiyear low.

Fellow Dow component General Electric (GE 10.06, -0.49) also registered a new multiyear low. Market participants have been treating it like a financial stock given the company's exposure to capital and financial markets.

Prudential (PRU 19.02, -3.59) was one of the session's weakest performers following Fitch's decision to downgrade Prudential's debt rating and commercial paper rating. Though there was concern the company could lose access to the Fed's commercial paper funding facility, reports indicated Prudential has access to the commercial paper program through its insurance arm.

Technology (-3.3%), which is the largest sector in the S&P 500 by market weight, also underperformed the broader market. Its weakness largely hinged on a disappointing quarterly report from Hewlett-Packard (HPQ 31.39, -2.69), which headlined a mixed batch of corporate announcements.

Hewlett-Packard issued a mixed earnings forecast, which overshadowed in-line quarterly earnings results. CVS Caremark (CVS 28.71, +1.72) and Newmont Mining (NEM 40.79, -1.97) announced better-than-expected quarterly earnings. Noble Energy (NBL 49.94, +1.30) also beat expectations, but Apache (APA 66.67, -0.42) missed. Sprint Nextel (S 3.25, +0.54) posted a loss, but it wasn't as bad as expected. Coca-Cola (KO 43.30, +0.62) increased its dividend, while CBS Corp (CBS 4.97, -0.16) slashed its dividend in the face of better-than-expected earnigns.

Economic data also remains uninspiring. Initial jobless claims totaled 627,000, topping the 620,000 claims that were expected. Initial claims were unchanged week-over-week, while the four-week moving average moved up to 619,000 from 608,500.

Continuing claims reached record highs of 4.99 million. Economists forecast 4.81 million continuing claims. The four-week moving average for continuing claims stands at 4.84 million, up from 4.75 million.

Jobless claims were a drag on the January index of leading economic indicators, which increased 0.4%, exceeding the consensus forecast of a 0.1% increase. An increase in the money supply proved to be the main driver lifting the index, but the increased money supply contributes to inflationary concerns.

Producer prices, which measure inflation, increased more than expected in January. The January PPI and core PPI were up 0.8% and 0.4%, respectively. DJ30 -89.68 NASDAQ -25.15 SP500 -9.48 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 892/2.05 bln/1788 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 856/1.49 bln/2215

3:30 pm : Crude oil futures experienced an eventful session. This morning, the DOE released its crude inventory data; crude oil inventories had a draw of 138,000. The consensus was a build of 3.2 million. This news sent the April crude oil futures soaring; April contracts finished up 6.4% to $39.80 per barrel. The March crude oil futures expire at the close of tomorrow's session; the March contracts closed at $39.48 per barrel, up 14% for the session.

Natural gas inventories were also released today, the draw of 24 bcf was less than the expected draw of 50 bcf. March natural gas contracts reacted in accordance to the higher than expected supply with a selloff to the $4.00 level, which hasn't been seen in natural gas since late 2002. March natural gas contracts attempted to recover for the rest of the session, but finished down 3.6% to $4.06 per contract.

In contrast to the energy commodities, April gold futures had an uneventful day after its recent surges. April gold finished the session reasonably unchanged at $976.50 per ounce. March Silver also finished the session relatively unchanged at $13.94 per ounce. DJ30 -56.07 NASDAQ -16.80 SP500 -5.65 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1026/1.6 bln/1629 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1030/1.05 bln/2037

3:05 pm : Financial stocks (-3.1%) continue to trade with marked losses. Weakness in the sector is widespread, but the steepest losses are being seen among regional banks (-6.5%), consumer finance companies (-7.8%), and life insurance companies (-8.9%).

Prudential (PRU 19.67, -2.94) is among the sector's weakest performers. Its shares have succumbed to weakness stemming from Fitch's decision to downgrade Prudential's senior unsecured debt rating and commercial paper rating. That spurred word the company will lose eligibility to the Fed's commercial paper funding facility, which was established to enhance the liquidity of the commercial paper market.

However, Reuters reported that Prudential has access to the commercial paper program through the company's insurance arm, and that the company's liquidity requirements are not dependent on access to commercial paper or debt capital markets.

Still, Lincoln National (LNC 12.02, -1.36), MetLife (MET 22.95, -1.25), and Allstate (ALL 18.54, -1.20) are all trading lower in related weakness. DJ30 -45.16 NASDAQ -14.12 SP500 -4.09 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1092/1.45 bln/1545 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1111/940 mln/1928

2:30 pm : Financial stocks (-2.5%), industrial stocks (-1.4%), and technology stocks (-2.8%) are showing the greatest weakness this session.

Tech has been under pressure since the start of the session. Traders have punished the sector in the wake of a disappointing report from Hewlett-Packard (HPQ 30.97, -3.11).

Industrial stocks are down amid weakness in General Electric (GE 10.05, -0.50). Shares of GE are trading at new multiyear lows amid continued macro concerns.

Meanwhile, financials have been hit by a largely indiscriminate selling effort. DJ30 -56.47 NASDAQ -13.24 SP500 -4.05 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1156/1.32 bln/1470 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1189/851 mln/1840

2:00 pm : Choppy trading has taken the S&P 500 back into the red. There hasn't been a single headline or clear leader in the stock market to provide participants direction.

This session's lack of direction has stocks split evenly between gainers and decliners. Within the S&P 500, advancing issues are trading at a ratio of 1-to-1 with declining issues.DJ30 -43.09 NASDAQ -10.51 SP500 -2.55 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1198/1.20 bln/1394 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1227/765 mln/1781

1:30 pm : Stocks are pulling up from earlier levels as the S&P 500 breaks back into positive territory. The Dow and Nasdaq, however, continue to trade with a loss.

This session's direction is largely unclear. Traders continue to assess key technical levels, gauging whether stocks will find support or breach lows. Meanwhile, despite the attractiveness of lower prices, many investors remain cautious of entering the action amid tenouous economic conditions.

Separately, Atlanta Fed President Lockhart stated in a speach that a modest recovery is possible in the second half of 2009, according to Dow Jones. DJ30 -7.96 NASDAQ -2.67 SP500 +1.97 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1313/1.11 bln/1265 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1465/705 mln/1535

1:05 pm : After stabilizing in the wake of a Tuesday's steep sell off without further deterioration Wednesday, short-sellers were compelled to cover their bets against further declines. That helped push the major indices to early gains this session. Those gains have since been reversed as another day of uninspiring headlines has failed to improve overall sentiment and attract buyers from the sidelines.

Stocks traded more than 1% higher in the first few minutes of trading. Gains were broad-based as nine of the 10 sectors in the S&P 500 traded with gains.

Technology (-2.4%) was the only sector to trade with a loss, and remains the session's worst performing sector. Tech's weakness has followed an in-line earnings announcement and mixed forecast from Hewlett-Packard (HPQ 31.55, -2.53), which has weighed on the Nasdaq.

In other corporate news, CVS Caremark (CVS 28.60, +1.61), Newmont Mining (NEM 41.82, -0.94), Noble Energy (NBL 50.17, +1.53), and Sprint Nextel (S 3.46, +0.75) all announced better-than-expected quarterly earnings. Meanwhile, Coca-Cola (KO 43.44, +0.76) increased its quarterly dividend, winning it favor among investors.

In economic data, initial jobless claims were unchanged week-over-week at 627,000. That's more than economists expected. That keeps the four-week moving average above 600,000.

Meanwhile, continuing jobless claims now stand at a record high of 4.99 million. The consensus forecast for continuing claims was pegged at 4.81 million.

The Producer Price Index and core PPI, closely watched inflationary measures, increased more than expected. The PPI was up 0.8% in January, rising for the first time since August. Core PPI increased 0.4% after increasing 0.2% the month before. The January index of leading economic indicators increased 0.4%, topping the 0.1% increase that was widely expected.

Despite the appearance of strength in the early going, stocks have fallen under pressure. The renewed selling effort has been focused on the financial sector, which was up as much as 2.4%, but is now down 2.0%. Financials had been down as much as 3.7% amid ongoing weakness in Dow components Bank of America (BAC 4.10, -0.47) and Citigroup (C 2.60, -0.31).

The weakness in BAC and C helped drag the Dow below its November closing low of 7,552.

However, the S&P 500 is still holding above its November closing low of 752. Still, traders consider 800 to be a key level to watch in the S&P 500. A break above 800 could prompt short-covering, while a test and failure to break above 800 suggests further range-bound trading, or even fresh weakness.DJ30 -46.99 NASDAQ -10.32 SP500 -2.98 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1138/1.02 bln/1407 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1219/639 mln/1773

12:30 pm : Stocks have come under increased pressure as the Dow Jones Industrial Average breaks below its November closing low of 7,552. The S&P 500 is still holding above its November closing low of 752, though.

The renewed selling pressure has become most intense in the financial sector. Financial stocks were up as much as 2.4% at their session high, but they are now down 3.0%.

Within the financial sector, Bank of America (BAC 4.02, -0.55), Citigroup (C 2.55, -0.36), JPMorgan Chase (JPM 21.17, -0.34), and Wells Fargo (WFC 12.46, -0.59) are among some of the most active names by volume this session. Shares of Citigroup took out new multiyear lows this session. Wells Fargo's share price fell to multiyear lows during the prior session. DJ30 -54.88 NASDAQ -13.76 SP500 -4.44 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1104/927 mln/1411 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1124/588 mln/1825

12:00 pm : The broader market has slipped into negative territory, but defensive-oriented holdings are outperforming.

Telecom is up 2.0%, while utilities are up 1.0%. Consumer staples stocks are up 1.0%.

Primary leaders in the consumer staples sector include CVS Caremark (CVS 28.75, +1.76) and Coca-Cola (KO 43.39, +0.71).

CVS posted better-than-expected earnings results this morning, bringing in $0.70 per share. Despite an economy in which many companies are posting lower profits, CVS saw quarterly earnings per share results jump nearly 21% year-over-year.

Coca-Cola made its 47th consecutive annual dividend increase by lifting its quarterly dividend to $0.41 per share from $0.38 per share. Based on the prior session's closing price, KO's new dividend payment translates to a dividend yield of 3.8%.

Coca-Cola will provide a presentation tomorrow at the Consumer Analyst Group of New York Conference.DJ30 -55.27 NASDAQ -11.24 SP500 -3.42 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1178/804 mln/1278 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1262/509 mln/1674

11:30 am : The headline indices are trading in mixed fashion, but the S&P 400 Mid-Cap Index and Russell 2000 Small-Cap Index are sporting solid gains. Mid-caps and small-caps are up 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively.

The Amex Airline Index is also trading higher. It has advanced 1.3% this session with the help of Delta Air Lines (DAL 5.97, +0.26).

Global indices are trading with relative strength. The Dow Jones World Index, excluding the U.S., is up 1.0%.DJ30 -0.40 NASDAQ -1.78 SP500 +2.44 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1391/669 mln/1043 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1586/429 mln/1341

11:00 am : The major indices continue to trade in mixed fashion. However, telecom stocks (+2.4%), consumer staples stocks (+1.5%), and utilities stocks (+1.3%) are sporting impressive gains and outperforming the broader market. Energy stocks have joined the session's leaders after spiking to a 1.2% gain in the wake of bullish crude oil inventory data.

Weekly crude oil inventories showed a draw of 138,000 barrels. The consensus called for a build of 3.2 million. Crude futures prices climbed in the wake of the announcement to $35.40 per barrel, which is a gain of 5.1%. Crude had been up roughly 2.5% before the announcement.

Retailers are staging an impressive 1.7% advance, led by Target (TGT 30.37, +0.93). A recent online article by Barron's stated Target offers a compelling opportunity for patient investors with a long horizon.DJ30 -13.94 NASDAQ -4.67 SP500 +1.01 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1380/551 mln/991 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1559/350 mln/1323

10:30 am : The major indices have pulled back and are now trading in mixed fashion.

Technology, which is the largest sector in the S&P 500 by market weight, remains the session's worst performing sector. It is now down 1.4%. Weakness in large-cap tech names is actually dragging the Nasdaq 100 to a 0.3% loss.

Financial stocks have joined tech in the red. Financials are currently down 0.3% amid weakness in Bank of America (BAC 4.11, -0.46) and Citigroup (C 2.74, -0.17).DJ30 +4.93 NASDAQ -0.60 SP500 +3.42 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1309/406 mln/983 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1662/258 mln/1167

10:00 am : Stocks continue to sport solid gains, but key commodities are trading in mixed fashion.

Crude oil contracts for March delivery are currently trading almost 5% higher at $36.30 per barrel. Meanwhile, April crude oil contracts are trading at $38.15 per barrel, up 2% from the prior session's close. April contracts will replace March contracts as the front month contract after the close of pit trading Friday.

Weekly crude oil inventory data will be released at 11 AM ET.

Meanwhile, natural gas is trading marginally lower at $4.20 per contract. Natural gas inventory data is due at 10:30 AM ET.

Gold contracts are currently trading at $974.10 per ounce, down 0.4%, as they ease off their 11-month closing high, which was registered in the prior session.

Silver is also trading lower. Silver contracts were recently quoted at $13.99 per ounce, down 2%.

The drop in precious metals comes despite a weaker dollar. The dollar index is currently down 1.1%.

Early movers: Trading up: WFMI +30.3%, RBS +22.7%, PCLN +17.8%, CBS +13.5%, S +13.3%, AAP +13%, GME +12.8%, ORLY +12.4%, BCS +11.1%, DBRN +10.2%, SGY +10%, PDCO +9.8%, RS +8.7%. Trading down: BMRN -26.8%, SPAR -20.5%, CRY -17.4%, PDS -12.0%, LDK -11.1%, VDSI -10.3%, EXPE -9.5%, SCO -7.5%. DJ30 +49.70 NASDAQ +12.23 SP500 +8.12 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1519/275 mln/680 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1969/179 mln/812

09:45 am : The upbeat tone seen in premarket trading has been carried into the first few minutes of the session, giving the major indices solid gains.

Technology (-0.5%) is the only sector that has failed to make its way into the green. Tech stocks outperformed the broader market in the prior session. However, this session's weakness is largely attributable to computer hardware companies (-3.1%), specifically Hewlett-Packard (HPQ 31.30, -2.78). HP posted in-line earnings for its latest quarter, but issued a mixed forecast.DJ30 +49.94 NASDAQ +15.29 SP500 +8.11 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1599/139 mln/481 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2049/98 mln/627

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +8.40. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +8.80. Stocks remain on track for a strong start with only a few minutes remaining before the opening bell sounds. The positive bias comes as an improvement from the flat tone of the prior session, during which stocks traded sideways. The upbeat tone comes amid mixed guidance from Hewlett-Packard (HPQ), but better-than-expected earnings from CVS Caremark (CVS), Newmont Mining (NEM), Noble Energy (NBL), and Sprint Nextel (S). Meanwhile, the January Producer Price Index and core PPI increased more than expected. Job markets remain weak as initial jobless claims for the week ending Feb. 14 totaled 627,000, exceeding expectations. That keeps the four-week moving average above 600,000. Continuing jobless claims now stand at a record 4.99 million, which is more than expected.

09:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +5.40. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +5.50. U.S. stock futures have reclaimed earlier gains, suggesting a stronger start to the session. European stocks are also improving after trading in mixed fashion. Germany's DAX is leading its counterparts with a 0.8% gain. Support is being provided by insurance and financial services outfit Muenchener Rueckver and Deutsche Bank (DB). Meanwhile, Deutsche Postbank is trading with a gain even though it unveiled a quarterly loss this morning. France's CAC is trading 0.2% higher. Primary weakness is being seen by Total (TOT). However, Societe Generale is providing leadership to the exchange. BNP Paribas has pared from earlier gains; it reported a fourth-quarter net loss and cut its dividend. Britain's FTSE has made its way to a 0.2% gain. Banking stocks are rallying in a rebound bid, with Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS), Lloyds Banking Group (LYG), and Barclays (BCS) climbing. Barclays indicated it does not intend to sell its global investment arm. The major Asian indices closed the session flat-to-modestly higher. The MSCI Asia-Pacific Index closed 0.6% higher, while Japan's Nikkei added 0.3%. Exporters gained amid a weaker yen, but their advance was limited by the persistent shadow of economic weakness. The Bank of Japan will extend the deadline for buying commercial paper in order to continue supporting corporate funding. The Japanese central bank kept interest rates at 0.10%, as expected. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng closed 0.1% higher. Shares of Huaneng Power, Datang International Power, and China Resources Power gained with the help of lower spot prices for coal. Meanwhile, Ping An Insurance rallied as investors cheered growth in its January premium income. Mainland China's Shanghai Composite closed 0.8% higher. Support was provided by word the country's government will provide aid for steel and electronics industries.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +0.90. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -0.30. Stock futures have pulled back a bit from earlier levels as the latest batch of economic data hits the wires. The January Producer Price Index increased 0.8% month-over-month. It was expected to increase 0.3%. The prior reading was shows a 1.9% month-over-month decline. Excluding food and energy, which often make volatile price moves, the January PPI increased 0.4% month-over-month. The core reading was expected to increase 0.1%. The prior reading reflects a 0.2% increase. Year-over-year, the January PPI fell 1.0%, which is less than the 2.4% decline that was widely forecast. The prior reading showed a 0.9% decrease. The core rate was up 4.2% year-over-year, which was above the consensus forecast, which called for a 3.8% increase. The prior reading showed a 4.3% increase. Job markets remain weak. Initial jobless claims for the week ending Feb. 14 totaled 627,000, which was more than the 620,000 initial claims that were expected. The prior week's claims were revised higher to 627,000. Continuing jobless claims now stand at 4.99 million. Economists, on average, projected continuing claims of 4.83 million. Last week's continuing claims were revised modestly higher to 4.82 million.

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +5.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +4.00. Stock futures currently point to a strong start for the major indices. The positive tone will be tested at the bottom of the hour when the latest producer price data is released, along with the latest batch of weekly jobless claims. For now, traders are digesting news that Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) earned an adjusted $0.93 per share last quarter. That was in-line with the consensus earnings estimate. The company expects this quarter's adjusted earnings to range from $0.84 to $0.85 per share, which is short of the $0.89 per share consensus estimate. As for fiscal 2009, Hewlett-Packard expects earnings to range from $3.76 to $3.88 per share, which brackets the $3.77 per share that analysts have surmised. The company stated in its conference call they outpaced competition and gained share in most segments. CVS Caremark (CVS) posted fourth quarter earnings of $0.70 per share, which topped the consensus earnings forecast of $0.69 per share. Newmont Mining (NEM) earned an adjusted $0.26 per share during its latest quarter. The results were a penny more than the consensus estimate of $0.25 per share. Noble Energy (NBL) produced adjusted earnings of $0.91 per share in its final fiscal quarter. The consensus estimate was pegged at just $0.79 per share. Sprint Nextel (S) reported an adjusted loss of $0.01 per share for the fourth quarter. That was still $0.02 better than analysts expected, though. In other corporate news, The Wall Street Journal reported Apple (AAPL) saw January computer unit sales in U.S. retail channels decline 6% year-over-year, which marks the first monthly decline in three years, according to the article's sources.

06:19 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +1.10. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -0.80.

06:19 am : Nikkei...7557.65...+23.20...+0.30%. Hang Seng...13023.36...+7.40...+0.10%.

06:19 am : FTSE...4008.82...+2.00...+0.10%. DAX...4220.03...+15.10...+0.40%


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