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 Post subject: February 18th Wednesday 2009
PostPosted: Thu Feb 19, 2009 6:09 am 
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Joined: Sat Jan 10, 2009 2:06 pm
Posts: 4335
Location: Canada
Today's trades that were posted in real-time in #FuturesTrades chat room via my IRC user name NihabaAshi are archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=20&t=110

My Trading Performance: +14.75 Emini ES points

Regards,
M.A. Perry

------------------



4:30 pm : A government plan to stem foreclosures and a restructuring plan from General Motors (GM 2.06, -0.12) did little to pull investors away from the sidelines, leaving stocks to spend the session trading sideways in choppy fashion.

As part of an effort to stem foreclosures and promote an attractive mortgage market, the government is increasing funding to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac by expanding the allowable size of the GSEs' retained mortgage portfolios to $900 billion from $850 billion, while also purchasing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac mortgage-backed securities. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will receive increased preferred stock purchase agreements from the Treasury as well.

The plan aims to help certain homeowners refinance GSE conforming mortgages, and offers banks incentives to reduce payments for borrowers. Still, the news did little to stir a reaction among market participants, who continue to wait and see what other plans will be unveiled to help restore conditions in the housing market, financial sector, and broader economy.

Economic data remains bleak. January housing starts were lower than expected, falling to their lowest level in decades. Industrial production in January was also worse than expected. Monthly building permits and import prices were generally in-line with expectations, but were still uninspiring.

According to the minutes from the Jan. 28 FOMC meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee believes monetary easing has lowered lending rates, but that has been offset by widening credit spreads, more restrictive lending standards, and dysfunctional credit markets.

Separately, reports indicate former Fed Chairman Greenspan indicated the current global recession will be the longest and deepest since the 1930s, while Chicago Fed President Evans stated the U.S. economy is shrinking at a disturbing pace, and conditions call for more stimulus. To that point, Fed Chairman Bernanke noted the Fed has developed a second set of policy tools that involve the provision of liquidity directly to borrowers and investors in key credit markets.

General Motors unveiled its viability plan, which indicated the company could need as much as $30 billion from the U.S. government, including the $13.4 billion the company has already received. The company is planning heavy layoffs and focusing production efforts on a smaller fleet of autos as part of its effort to stave off bankruptcy, which the company indicated would not be an amicable scenario. Displeased with the plan, investors sent shares of GM lower.

Earnings announcements from Comcast (CMCSA 12.36, -0.53) and Deere (DE 32.23, -1.26) also failed to inspire market participants. Comcast had posted better-than-expected results and increased its dividend. Deere fell short of the consensus earnings estimate.

Though limited, the session's buying efforts were focused in the consumer staples sector (+0.7%) and the technology sector (+0.4%). They were the only two sectors in the S&P 500 to finish higher. In the consumer staples, Wal-Mart (WMT 50.00, +1.76) traded as a leader for the second straight session, while large-cap tech helped the tech sector.DJ30 +3.03 NASDAQ -2.69 NQ100 +0.2% R2K -1.3% SP400 -1.2% SP500 -0.75 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1711/952/2.09 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2195/883/1.43 bln

3:30 pm : March and April crude oil futures both finished lower on the session. March futures finished modestly lower at $34.60 per barrel. April futures closed at $37.39 per barrel, down 3.0%. April had traded as low as $37.25 per barrel after experiencing a sharp drop off early in the morning trade.

March natural gas futures traded in the red for most of the session. The contracts fought back to the unchanged mark near the end of pit trading to close at $4.17 per contract, down less than 1%.

April gold continued its recent bullish trend, closing up 1.1% to $978.20 per ounce, which is a new 11-month closing high. The April contract is now up over 21% from its 2009 January lows.

March silver futures overcame early weakness to close at $14.29, up 2.0%.DJ30 -15.61 NASDAQ -2.65 SP500 2.51 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1610/1039/1.75 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2276/799/1.10 bln

3:00 pm : Stocks continue to trade listlessly as market participants prepare for the final hour of trading.

A bevy of earnings announcements are due after the close. Analog Devices (ADI 20.08, +0.08), Baidu.com (BIDU 126.70, +4.35), Blue Nile (NILE 20.54, -1.08), CBS Corp (CBS 5.10, -0.15), Hewlett-Packard (HPQ 33.92, -0.42), and Whole Foods (WFMI 9.35, +0.03) are among the companies scheduled to report.

Tomorrow, Apache (APA 67.09, -1.06), CVS Caremark (CVS 27.21, -0.09), Hormel (HRL 30.23, -0.56), Noble (NBL 48.58, -0.84), Newmont Mining (NEM 42.21, -0.45), Pride (PDE 15.83, -0.52), Sprint Nextel (S 2.67, -0.09), and Williams Companies (WMB 13.76, -0.40) all report earnings ahead of the session's opening bell.

The latest producer price index data is also due tomorrow, along with weekly initial jobless claims data.DJ30 +12.91 NASDAQ +1.75 SP500 +0.25 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1510/1125/1.59 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2172/897/999 mln

2:30 pm : Stocks continue to trade with modest losses. Action remains largely range bound.

Consumer staples stocks (+0.7%) and technology stocks (+0.4%) are showing gains amid widespread declines in the S&P 500. They are the only two sectors trading with gains.

Declining issues in the S&P 500 outnumber advancers by more than 2-to-1.DJ30 -14.17 NASDAQ -3.84 SP500 -3.06 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1596/1013/1.49 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2236/831/903 mln

2:05 pm : Stocks have drifted lower in the wake of the release of the minutes from the FOMC's meeting on Jan. 28.

According to the minutes, FOMC has longer-run projections of 2.5% to 2.7% growth in real gross domestic output, 4.8% to 5.0% unemployment, 1.7% to 2.0% inflation, as measured by the price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE).

Most participants judged that a longer-run PCE inflation rate of 2% would be consistent with the dual mandate. DJ30 -18.00 NASDAQ -3.19 SP500 -3.01 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1590/1013/1.33 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2234/823/823 mln

1:30 pm : Fed Chairman Bernanke continues through his speech, in which he stated the Fed's monetary easing has been reflected in significant declines in a number of lending rates. However, that has been offset by widening credit spreads, more restrictive lending standards, and dysfunction in credit markets.

Bernanke noted the Fed has developed a second set of policy tools that involve the provision of liquidity directly to borrowers and investors in key credit markets.

In a separate speech, Chicago Fed Presidant Evans stated the Fed is still considering buying longer-term Treasuries, according to Dow Jones. Reuters reported that Evans stated the U.S. economy is shrinking at a disturbing pace, and conditions call for more stimulus.DJ30 -1.75 NASDAQ +1.72 SP500 -0.64 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1490/1089/1.20 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2085/946/744 mln

1:05 pm : This session's trading has been rather choppy. Market participants are looking for direction after an initial upbeat tone dissipated.

Stocks were sporting solid gains in the first few minutes of action as bargain hunters searched for value after the prior session's 4.6% slide, and traders reacted to headlines detailing the government's plan to stem foreclosures.

Part of the government's plan to stem foreclosures features increasing funding to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Treasury will also increase the size of the GSEs' retained mortgage portfolios allowed under the agreements to $900 billion from $850 billion, while continuing to purchase Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac mortgage-backed securities. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will receive increased preferred stock purchase agreements from the Treasury as well. Increased funds are intended to promote strength and security in the mortgage market, while also helping maintain mortgage affordability and keeping interest rates low.

Additionally, the plan aims to allow 4 million to 5 million "responsible" homeowners to refinance GSE conforming mortgages, while creating a $75 billion initiative to give banks incentives to reduce payments.

However, investors are mindful this is not going to be a single measure that fully restores conditions in the housing market, financial sector, or broader economy.

Today's economic data was largely uninspiring. January housing starts were lower than expected, as was industrial production. January building permits were largely in-line with expectations. Import prices were too.

Fed Chairman Bernanke is speaking at the National Press Club today. His remarks are currently hitting the wires. Bernanke is expected to discuss Fed lending and the Fed's balance sheet.

Separately, Reuters.com reported former Federal Reserve Chairman Greenspan believes the current global recession will be the longest and deepest since the 1930s. He also indicated more government rescue funds are needed to stabilize the U.S. financial system.

Corporate headlines have created little stir among market participants. General Motors (GM 2.10, -0.08) indicated in its viability plan that it could need as much as $30 billion from the U.S. government, including the $13.4 billion the company has already received.

Privately-held Chrysler is also looking for funds, while Ford (F 1.69, +0.00) is confident it will not need funds this year.

In earnings news, Comcast (CMCSA 12.30, -0.60) posted better-than-expected fourth quarter earnings and increased its dividend. Deere (DE 33.46, -0.03) missed the consensus earnings estimate. DJ30 +22.62 NASDAQ +7.74 SP500 +2.13 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1449/1112/1.11 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1935/1080/688 mln

12:30 pm : Stocks began to retreat as President Obama started his speech regarding government plans to stem foreclosures, but the major indices have since paused.

Part of the government's plan to stem foreclosures features increasing funding to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in order to ensure the strength and security of the mortgage market, to help maintain mortgage affordability, and to help keep interest rates low. Almost three-quarters of new home loans were financed or guaranteed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in 2008.

In addition, Treasury will continue to purchase Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac mortgage-backed securities to promote stability and liquidity in the marketplace. Treasury will also increase the size of the GSEs' retained mortgage portfolios allowed under the agreements to $900 billion from $850 billion. DJ30 +35.45 NASDAQ +8.92 SP500 +3.44 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1330/1212/999 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1876/1128/615 mln

12:00 pm : Stocks continue to trade with modest gains as the major indices trade in choppy fashion.

Citigroup (C 3.01, -0.05) and Bank of America (BAC 4.80, -0.10) continue to top the list of most actively traded shares by volume. Joining them this session is financial guarantee and credit protection outfit MBIA (MBI 4.54, +1.06). MBIA announced it will establish a separate public finance insurance company by restructuring its principal insurance subsidiary. However, Standard & Poor's downgraded MBIA and its related entities this morning.

Meanwhile, Agilent (A 16.24, -1.41) is trading with one of the largest percentage losses in the tech sector (+1.2%). The downturn comes after the firm reported worse-than-expected earnings results for its latest quarter. Agilent is trading as a laggard in its space.DJ30 +28.12 NASDAQ +9.73 SP500 +2.89 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1329/1154/883 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1941/1035/541 mln

11:30 am : Shares of General Motors (GM 2.14, -0.04) and Ford (F 1.67, -0.02) are under pressure after starting the session with gains. The broader market, however, has recovered into the green.

GM indicated in its viability plan that it could need as much as $30 billion from the U.S. government, including the $13.4 billion the company has already received. Under the company's baseline outlook, repayment of borrowed funds could begin in 2012.

GM will cut 47,000 jobs by the end of the year, or approximately 19% of its workforce, as part of the restructuring effort. GM also plans to reduce the number of models in its fleet.

Privately-held Chrysler requested $5 billion in new loans. That comes in addition to the $4 billion it received in December. Chrysler plans to cut 3,000 jobs, or approximately 6% of its workforce. It will stop production of three vehicle models.

Meanwhile, Ford has not requested any federal assistance. It remains confident it can make it through 2009 without government money.

While Ford's decision to distinguish itself from competitors may cast a glow upon its image, some analysts contend that portraying a stronger operation could hamper its leverage during negotiations with unions. Still, automakers have reported progress in reaching tentative agreements with the United Auto Workers union on a variety of labor cost reductions.

As for Toyota Motor (TM 66.22, +2.77), the company indicated it will increase production in the near future in order to replenish the inventory that it has pared in recent months.DJ30 +27.01 NASDAQ +10.66 SP500 +2.76 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1349/1108/756 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1898/1059/471 mln

11:00 am : The stock market poked back into positive territory after recovering from a loss of 1.1%. The move into the green has proven unsustainable, though, as stocks retrace earlier losses.

Declines are more intense among small- and mid-cap stocks. The Russell 2000 Small-Cap Index is down 1.0%, while the S&P 400 Mid-Cap Index is down 1.2%.

Still, there are some strong strong performers in the two indices. La-Z-Boy (LZB 1.12, +0.20) is up even though the company reported a loss for its latest quarter, and decided to suspend its dividend. Meanwhile, Fidelity National (FNF 18.98, +1.51) is trading as a leader among mid-cap names.DJ30 -22.85 NASDAQ -1.73 SP500 -3.19 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1461/912/585 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2134/751/373 mln

10:30 am : Stocks recently fell into the red, but are now putting together a recovery effort. Still, technology (+0.2%) and energy (+0.1%) are the only sectors in the S&P 500 to trade with a gain.

Tech's gain comes thanks to Oracle (ORCL 17.20, +0.24), Yahoo! (YHOO 12.22, +0.20), and Broadcom (BRCM 17.79, +0.59). Industry stalwart Microsoft (MSFT 18.16, +0.07) is trading with modest strength.

Energy is receiving leadership from integrated giant Exxon Mobil (XOM 72.08, +0.80), which is registering gains as crude oil prices chop along.DJ30 -10.27 NASDAQ -1.20 SP500 -1.70 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1403/928/467 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2016/823/300 mln

10:00 am : Gold continues to attract buyers, helping it build on the prior session's 2.7% advance. Gold is currently trading at $970.00 per ounce, up 0.3%. The ascent has taken gold prices to their highest level in nearly seven months.

Silver is also trading with a modest gain. Silver was recently quoted at $14.08 per ounce, up 0.5%.

Crude oil is finding moderate support. Crude futures were recently quoted at $35.10 per barrel, up 0.5%. Crude prices have been challenged during recent sessions to sustain their gains, though, as demand concerns continue to weigh on the commodity. The current crude futures contracts expire Friday.

Natural gas is under pressure, however. Natural gas is currently down more than 1% to $4.15 per contract.

Early movers: Trading up: MBI +38.2%, MIG +19.4%, HNI +16.4%, VMI +15.8%, ROC +13.4%, PL +10.4%, BEAT +9.1%, VOLC +8.9%, AMMD +8.4%. Trading down: WHI -14.1%, OMX -12.2%, CRA -11.2%, AMCN -11.1%, CPTS -9%, JAKK -8.9%, RCI -8.8%, A -7%, ING -6.8%.DJ30 -18.08 NASDAQ -2.74 SP500 -1.95 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1207/974/228 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1837/900/153 mln

09:40 am : The strong uptick in sentiment that occurred late in premarket trading has softened since the opening bell sounded. The Dow is now dancing just above the unchanged line, while the broader S&P 500 trades with a modest gain.

Action in the S&P 500 is largely mixed. Half the sectors are trading in the red. Financials are actually the best performers; the sector is up 1.3%.DJ30 +5.74 NASDAQ +4.34 SP500 +2.01 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 878/1120/91 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1249/1304/69 mln

09:20 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +5.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +8.50. Stock futures have improved to reflect a solid start for the major indices. The relatively upbeat tone comes as bargain hunters enter the fray in the wake of the prior session's sell off, and traders react to details of President Obama's $50 billion plan to stem foreclosures, which recently hit the wires. Though the announcement has helped improved sentiment in premarket trading, investors remain cognizant that the plan will account for only a miniscule fraction of total mortgage debt. That understanding underscores the knowledge that there will not be a single measure that fully restores conditions in the housing market, financial sector, or broader economy. Economic data this morning has been largely disappointing. January import prices were down, yet relatively in-line with expectations. January housing starts were short of the consensus estimate. Just hitting the wires, industral production was down 1.8% in January. It was expected to decline 1.5%. Meanwhile, Deere (DE) reported dour earnings. Comcast (CMCSA) beat estimates and increased its dividend, though.

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +5.70. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +7.30. European stocks have pared earlier losses, but remain under pressure for the fifth straight session. Germany's DAX is down 0.5% amid broad-based weakness. The Wall Street Journal reports Germany's cabinet approved a bill that seeks to allow the forced nationalization of banks as a last resort for a limited period. The measure is intended to prevent the collapse of a bank, which may result in a systemic crisis. Allianz (AZ) is leading losses in the German bourse. Deutsche Bank (DB) is also trading with weakness. Britain's FTSE is off by 0.6%. BP PLC (BP) and BHP BIlliton (BHP) are among the session's primary laggards, largely due to concerns stemming from weak commodity demand. Select banks are making rebounds, though, as HSBC (HSB) and Lloyd's (LYG) provide support to the FTSE. Meanwhile, France's CAC is down 0.2%. Societe Generale confirmed it will turn in a profit for the fourth quarter, but warned that 2009 will be difficult, according to The Wall Street Journal. Still, decliners outnumber advancing issues by 3-to-1 in the CAC. Vivendi and Danone are among the session's primary laggards. In Asia, the MSCI Asia-Pacific Index closed 0.8% lower amid perpetuating weakness in global securities. Japan's Nikkei extended recent losses by closing 1.5% lower. Financials found themselves back under pressure as Sumitomo Mitsui Financial and Mizuho Financial (MFG) both fell. Toyota Motor (TM) gained, however, amid news the automaker plans to boost production in Japan. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng mustered a 0.6% gain after trading with losses for much of the session. The rally came as investors scooped up beaten down stocks and built enough momentum to reverse earlier losses. In mainland China, persistent economic concerns took a heavy toll on cyclical stocks, sending the Shanghai Composite 4.7% lower.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +3.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +3.00. Stock futures have improved a bit from earlier levels. January import prices declined 1.1% month-over-month. A decline of 1.2% was expected. Monthly import prices actually fell 5.0% in the prior reading. January import prices are down 12.5% year-over-year, which is a steeper drop than the 11.2% decline that was expected. The prior reading was revised lower to reflect a 10.3% year-over-year decline. Housing starts totaled 466,000 during January. The consensus estimate called for 529,000 starts. The prior reading was revised upward to reflect 560,000 starts. Building permints totaled 521,000 during January. The consensus was pegged at 525,000, while the prior reading was revised modestly lower to reflect 547,000 permits.

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +2.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -1.00. A flat start is indicated for stocks. General Motors (GM) submitted its viability plan as part of the requirement to secure government funding. The company indicated overall adjusted operating cash flows are expected to approach breakeven levels in 2011, and improve to more than $6 bln in the 2012-2014 period. The company is requesting federal funding support of $22.5 billion as part of its current baseline industry volume scenario. However, total government support could reach $30 billion by 2011. GM concluded bankruptcy would be a highly risky, extremely costly and time-consuming process. In earnings news, Comcast (CMCSA) beats reported fourth quarter earnings of $0.27 per share, which is $0.05 better than the consensus of $0.22 per share. Comcast also increased their dividend. Deere (DE) earned $0.48 per share during its latest quarter. That was $0.15 below the consensus of $0.63 per share. Reuters.com reported former Federal Reserve Chairman Greenspan said the current global recession will be the longest and deepest since the 1930s and more government rescue funds are needed to stabilize the U.S. financial system.

06:28 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +0.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -3.00.

06:28 am : Nikkei...7534.44...-111.10...-1.50%. Hang Seng...13016.0...+70.60...+0.60%.

06:28 am : FTSE...3998.38...-35.80...-0.90%. DAX...4175.85...-40.80...-1.00%.


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