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 Post subject: February 17th Tuesday 2009
PostPosted: Wed Feb 18, 2009 12:10 am 
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Joined: Sat Jan 10, 2009 2:06 pm
Posts: 4335
Location: Canada
Today's trades that were posted in real-time in #FuturesTrades chat room via my IRC user name NihabaAshi are archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=20&t=109

My Trading Performance: +8.25 Emini ES points

Regards,
M.A. Perry

-----------------------



4:25 pm : Renewed financial and economic concerns spurred an unrelenting selling effort that took stocks to multimonth lows and kept them there for virtually the entire session. Both the blue chip Dow Jones Industrial Average and the broader S&P 500 closed the session at its lowest point since registering bear market lows in November.

The major indices are back at key technical levels after climbing above them last week. Revisiting the support levels has led to conjecture whether stocks will find support at technical levels and rally, or break to new bear market lows. There S&P found some support at 790 during the session, but still closed below that level.

Weakness was deep and broad-based. All 10 of the major sectors in the S&P 500 spent the entire session in the red. Approximately 98% of all the companies in the S&P 500 closed lower.

Financials were the worst performing sector. The sector closed 9.8% lower with particular weakness in consumer finance (-11.9%), diversified financial companies (-12.2%), and diversified banks (-13.1%). Financials registered a new 52-week intraday low and a new 52-week closing low.

The financial sector's drop reflects continued concerns that bank balance sheets may still be under pressure amid waning capital.

Such was the case in Europe, where word a Moody's report citing stress in Eastern Europe's banks undercut major European bourses. Meanwhile, Asian financial stocks fell in the wake news Woori Financial became South Korea's first lender to tap a bank recapitalization fund, and Japan's Mitsubishi UFJ Financial issued a larger debt offering than initially planned. The declines overseas helped fuel initial weakness in the U.S.

As part of an effort to distinguish strong banks and arrange a blend of public and private capital, regulators may begin stress-testing banks this week. Still, there is skepticism that such a move will have any immediate impact on restoring conditions in the financial system or the broader economy.

Investors also remain unimpressed by the $787 billion economic stimulus plan, which was signed into law this afternoon. The plan isn't expected to provide an immediate boost to conditions in the near term.

Weak economic conditions continue to weigh on oil prices. Crude oil futures fell nearly 7% to finish the session at $34.95 per barrel. Crude futures prices are now down 75% from their highs.

The general weakness this session has also led to buying in gold. Gold is up 3.2% to $971.30 per ounce. It has gained in four of the last five sessions.

Given the weight of concerns for the financial system and broader economy, a relatively positive batch of earnings data was generally treated with disinterest. Wal-Mart (WMT 48.24, +1.71) bested quarterly earnings estimates, and issued in-line guidance. It was the only Dow component to trade with a gain, but its report provided little support to the broader market. Teva Pharmaceuticals (TEVA 45.78, +1.77) posted better-than-expected results and increased its quarterly dividend. Medtronic (MDT 34.56, +1.75) also topped expectations. Illinois Tool Works (ITW 32.96, -2.16) issued in-line earnings guidance. Kraft (KFT 24.72, -0.48) and ConAgra (CAG 16.26, +0.04) both reaffirmed their earnings outlooks. DJ30 -297.81 NASDAQ -63.70 NQ100 -4.0% R2K -4.3% SP400 -4.2% SP500 -37.67 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 399/2.15 bln/2280 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 218/1.61 bln/2895

3:30 pm : Crude oil and natural gas futures traded sharply lower for the session, along with the rest of the market. March crude oil finished 6.8% lower to $34.95 per ounce. Crude oil is now down 36.4% over the last 3 months.

Natural gas contracts traded in a similar fashion to crude oil. Demand destruction is the overriding theme. March futures closed down 5.6% to $4.21 per contract.

Precious metals were one of the few bright spots in the market as they continued their recent bullish trend.

Signaling a flight to quality, gold hit session highs of $970.50 per ounce, and closed at $967.50 per ounce, up 2.7% for the session. April gold is now up 9.4% year to date, and up 30.3% over the last 3 months.

Silver also received favorable investor sentiment during the session. The March futures contracts are now up 35.1% since mid-January closing at $14.01 per ounce, up 2.9% for the session.DJ30 -264.03 NASDAQ -57.66 SP500 -35.08 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 416/1.91 bln/2247 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 221/1.09 bln/2885

3:00 pm : Stocks continue to trade sideways in a rather narrow trading range. Pessimism has been present since the opening bell.

Though stocks are on track for a hefty 4% loss this session, that is still shy of the 4.9% drop that was registered last week as market participants reacted negatively to Treasury's financial recovery plan. DJ30 -256.15 NASDAQ -55.18 SP500 -33.47 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 476/1.72 bln/2247 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 109/927 mln/2710

2:30 pm : Nearly 97% of the companies trading in the S&P 500 are showing losses, leaving this session's advancers few and far between.

Wal-Mart (WMT 47.99, +1.46) remains a strong performer. The company topped analysts' quarterly expectations this morning. Medtronic (MDT 34.60, +1.79) is attracting interest after the company served up better-than-expected earnings results of its own.

Newmont Mining (NEM 42.79, +1.21) is also sporting a handsome gain. Its advance, however, comes on the back of a 2.7% advance in gold prices. Gold was up more than 3% earlier.DJ30 -252.01 NASDAQ -54.41 SP500 -32.85 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 480/1.61 bln/2236 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 97/856 mln/2709

2:00 pm : An attempt to recover some losses is met with selling. Weakness is broad-based, although financials (-8.2%) continue to drop the most with industrial REITs down 17% and consumer finance down 11%. The financial sector fell to a new multi-year intraday low this session, as has industrials (-4.3%).

St. Louis Fed President Bullard said that the Fed buying Treasuries is still on the table and will revisit the program later, according to Dow Jones. Treasuries are rallying, with the 10-year note up nearly two points to send its yield down to 2.67%.DJ30 -261.88 NASDAQ -57.02 SP500 -33.24 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 448/1.51 bln/2171 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 213/822 mln/2866

1:30 pm : Financial stocks have sunk to a fresh session low. The broader market, however, has held steady at the 790 level.

Financials are now down 8.4%. Still, that is short of the 10.9% drop registered one week ago. Only three times this year has the financial sector finished the session less than 1% higher or lower.

Primary laggards in the financial sector include diversified banks (-10.3%), consumer finance companies (-12.11%), and life and health insurers (-10.3%).DJ30 -288.73 NASDAQ -62.85 SP500 -36.49 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 447/1.38 bln/2230 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 78/718 mln/2725

1:05 pm : The major indices have been under stiff selling pressure since the early going. Losses are deep and broad-based, causing investors to turn defensive.

Though a $787 billion economic stimulus bill will soon be signed into law, persistent concerns related to economic and financial conditions in the near term continue to undercut confidence.

Such concerns have also underpinned weakness in foreign indices. That was made evident when Asian and European financial stocks sold off after Moody's issued a report citing stress in Eastern Europe's banks, and downgraded London's Lloyd's (LY 2.91, -0.89). Meanwhile, Woori Financial became South Korea's first lender to tap a bank recapitalization fund, and Japan's Mitsubishi UFJ Financial issued a larger debt offering than initially planned. The developments come as stern reminders that capital conditions remain tenuous.

The weakness overseas has bled into U.S. stocks and brought the major indices back to key technical levels, which barely held last week. The S&P 500 is now trading below January lows, but has found some support at 790. Meanwhile, the Dow is trading in-line with its bear market low, which was reached in November.

Though this session's losses have spread to every sector in the S&P 500, primary focus remains on financial stocks. The financial sector is down 7.4% to trade near its 52-week low.

Reports indicated regulators may begin stress-testing banks this week. The move comes as part of Treasury Secretary Geithner's plan to help restore the health of banks, and would aim to mesh private and public funds. The reports could help distinguish (or expose) the weak from the strong.

The uncertainty in the broader market has caused investors to look past the latest batch of earnings data. Wal-Mart (WMT 47.93, +1.40) bested quarterly earnings estimates, and issued in-line guidance for the first quarter and fiscal 2010. Teva Pharmaceuticals (TEVA 45.91, +1.90) posted better-than-expected results, too. The company also increased its quarterly dividend. Illinois Tool Works (ITW 32.72, -2.40) issued in-line earnings guidance. Kraft (KFT 24.81, -0.39) and ConAgra (CAG 16.30, +0.08) both reaffirmed their earnings outlooks.

Other corporate headlines have been uninspiring. Reuters reports that General Motors (GM 2.14, -0.36) will receive $4 billion in additional governmental financial aid ahead of the company's deadline to submit its survival plan.

The general weakness this session has also led to buying in gold. Gold is up 3.2% to $971.30 per ounce. It has gained in four of the last five sessions. Treasuries are also up, especially at the long end of the yield curve.DJ30 -276.62 NASDAQ -59.72 SP500 -34.42 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 455/1.29 bln/2198 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 89/663 mln/2705

12:30 pm : The S&P 500 had slipped to earlier session lows, but received support at the 790 level. The S&P 500 is now approximately 50 points above its 52-week closing low, which was reached last November.

Meanwhile, financial stocks (-7.6%) are trading even with their 52-week closing low, which was reached in January.DJ30 -264.35 NASDAQ -57.36 SP500 -33.06 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 455/1.71 bln/2166 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 81/601 mln/2686

12:00 pm : The stock market has managed to slip a bit lower after trading in a relatively narrow range. The stock market is at its lowest level since November.

This session's action has pushed the Volatility Index, unofficially dubbed the the Fear Index, back above 50 for the first time since January. The Volatility Index was recently up almost 17% to 51. While that is above recent averages, it is still far short of the 89.5 reading that was posted this past October.DJ30 -254.08 NASDAQ -54.68 SP500 -32.05 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 444/1.04 bln/2141 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 79/527 mln/2667

11:30 am : Once again, shares of Citigroup (C 3.21, -0.28) and Bank of America (BAC 5.05, -0.52) are atop the list of most actively traded stocks by volume. Shares of Wells Fargo (WFC 14.79, -0.97) are also among the most actively traded names this session.

The trio is also among the primary laggards in the financial sector, which is down 6.6%. The financial sector has been trading sideways for the last hour or so.

Bank stocks remain in focus for market participants and their ilk. To help address the troubles of banks, regulators will begin going into banks this week, CNBC reported. The examinations by regulators are expected to help move toward creating private and public relationships that will supprt the recovery of financial institutions.DJ30 -261.41 NASDAQ -56.81 SP500 -32.64 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 452/929 mln/2103 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 87/497 mln/2639

11:00 am : Stocks have pulled off their morning lows, but continue to trade with meaningful losses. All 10 sectors in the S&P 500 remain in the red.

Wal-Mart (WMT 48.02, +1.49) is the only company in the Dow to trade with a gain. The discount retail giant reported better-than-expected earnings per share results this morning. However, profits were down from the prior year.

Still, Wal-Mart posted top line growth, which comes as consumers seek out bargains amid rising unemployment and other tenuous macro conditions. The company also issued an in-line earnings outlook for the year.

Fellow Dow component Kraft (KFT 24.79, -0.41) reaffirmed its 2009 outlook earlier today. The company expects unadjusted earnings to come in at $1.88 per share. The current consensus estimate is pegged at $1.91 per share. DJ30 -244.60 NASDAQ -52.08 SP500 -30.75 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 395/778 mln/2107 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 89/384 mln/2615

10:30 am : Stocks remain mired in weakness. The downbeat tone was established during premarket trading.

This session's weakness comes without an individual catalyst, but rather renewed concern regarding the health of the global economy and the global financial system. Uncertainty surrounding the world's largest banks is at the heart of the concern.

Banks in Asia traded with particular weakness Tuesday. Their decline stemmed from word that a recapitalization line had been tapped by a South Korean lender. Word that Moody's downgraded the credit rating of Lloyd's (LYG 2.90, -0.90) exacerbated weakness in European bank stocks. DJ30 -250.18 NASDAQ -50.80 SP500 -30.43 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 384/592 mln/2036 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 83/276 mln/2560

10:05 am : Investors are bidding gold more than 3% higher to $970.30 per ounce. That puts gold in position to register its fourth advance in the past five sessions. The advance also puts gold at its highest level since July. Still, gold is off its annual high of $1,033.90 per ounce.

Yamana Gold (AUY 9.40, +0.41), Newmont Mining (NEM 42.40, +0.82), Barrick Gold (ABX 38.62, +0.68), and Goldcorp (GG 32.31, +0.56) are all benefitting from the gains being accumulated by gold.

Silver is also sporting a solid gain. Silver was last quoted 2.8% higher at $14.00 per ounce.

Energy-related commodities are finding little favor from traders. Crude is down 6.7% to less than $35 per barrel, while natural gas is down 5.5% to $4.21 per contract.

The weakness in energy and other commodities is offsetting the gains by precious metals in the CRB Commodity Index. The CRB is currently off by 2.3%.

Early movers: Trading up: RTLX +17.4%, FAZ +14%, SCO +11.7%, FXP +11.4%, EEV +11.1%, SKF +9.8%, UXG +9.7%, SRS +9.6%. Trading down: LYG -21.1%, MTG -18%, VIP -17.4%, EXM -16.5%, MBT -15.4%, KB -15.1%, AEG -15%, PHK -13.8%, FAS -13.8%, DRYS -13.7%, WLT -13%, DXO -12.7%, AEE -12.6%, YRCW -12.4%, TBSI -12.2%, BPZ -12.2%, MU -12.1%, DB -12%, GM -12%, RSX -11.9%, RDN -11.9%, RFL -11.8%, MTL -11.5%, UCO -11.3%, STI -11.2%, BBV -11.2%, IBN -11%, KEP -10.8%, MT -10.6%, STD -10.4%, TCK -10.2%, CLF -10.2%, PLD -10.1%, PTY -10.1%, UYG -10.1%, EGLE -10.1%DJ30 -255.35 NASDAQ -55.34 SP500 -31.74 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 343/450 mln/1964 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 212/229 mln/2676

09:45 am : Losses during the first few minutes of trading are deep and widespread. All 10 sectors in the S&P 500 are in the red; all are showing a loss in excess of 1%.

Financials are currently the worst performing stocks. The financial sector is down 6.0%. This session's decline has taken the financial sector to a year-to-date loss of almost 35%, making it the worst performing sector this year.

The general weakness in stocks has investors pursuing traditional safe havens. As such, the 10-year Treasury Note is up 51 ticks, pushing its yield down to 2.71%. Gold is up 3.0% to $969.90 per ounce.DJ30 -211.79 NASDAQ -44.04 SP500 -27.36 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 328/257 mln/1867 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 233/139 mln/2577

09:20 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -30.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -44.30. Weakness is widespread this morning. Asian stocks were hit with selling pressure and European stocks are also seeing red. Their weakness stems from fears of a deeply rooted global economic downturn, which has rekindled such fears in the U.S. This morning's decline, then, suggests investors were unable to calm during the long weekend and are extending last Friday's late selling effort. Earnings news continues to hit the wires, but the results remain largely uninspiring. A grim Empire State Manufacturing Index has also added to this morning's negative bias. The $787 billion economic stimulus bill has also done little to reassure investors that conditions will meaningfully improve in short time.

09:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -28.90. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -42.00. At its current level, S&P 500 futures suggest the stock market will begin the session almost 3% lower. Though there does not appear to be a single catalyst for the downward bias, investors generally remain concerned about macro conditions and the health of the financial sector. According to CNBC, this week bank regulators will go into financial institutions as plans are made to create public and private relationships to support the financial sector. Such an effort was already alluded to by Treasury Secretary Geithner. Crude oil futures are also down sharply ahead of pit trading. Crude oil futures were recently quoted at $35.15 per barrel, down 6.3%. The selling pressure is keeping oil prices near their monthly lows.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -23.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -37.30. Europe's major indices are trading lower as London's FTSE drops 1.7%, France's CAC falls 1.8%, and Germany's DAX drops 2.1%. Bank shares continue to come under pressure amid concerns regarding their health and that governments may need to provide additional support, which would likely mean an increased government stake. On the FTSE, Lloyds (LYG) is trading with a meaningful loss. The company had its credit rating downgraded by Moody's. However, HSBC (HSB) is a primary laggard in the space. Government officials continue their efforts to calm investor fears; a Dow Jones report quoted a United Kingdom official stating the government does not want to nationalize banks. The CAC is being weighed down by Societe Generale and BNP Paribas. Total (TOT) is also trading as a laggard as crude oil futures prices succumb to renewed selling pressure. Crude is currently down 4.0% to roughly $36.00 per barrel. Meanwhile, losses in the DAX are being led by Allianz (AZ). In Asia, Japan's Nikkei ended 1.4% lower Tuesday. It continues to trade near multimonth lows as financial stocks remain hampered. Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (MTU) traded with weakness after its main banking subsidiary, Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ, said it would sell more subordinated bonds than originally planned. Mizuho Financial (MFG) was also under pressure. Hong Kong's Hang Seng closed 3.8% lower. Losing issues outnumbered advancers by four-to-one. PetroChina (PTR) fell amid weak crude prices, as did offshore oil specialist CNOOC (CEO). China Construction Bank was a laggard in the financial sector.

08:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -18.90. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -32.30. Stocks are on track for a markedly lower start after the $787 billion economic stimulus bill has passed both chambers of congress. President Obama is expected to sign the bill into law. Wal-Mart (WMT) posted fourth quarter adjusted earnings of $1.03 per share which is better than the consensus forecast, which called for $0.99 per share. the company issued in-line guidance for the first quarter, during which it expects to earn $0.72 to $0.77 per share. For fiscal 2010, the company expects to earn $3.45 to $3.60 per share, which brackets the consensus estimate of $3.59 per share. Teva Pharmaceuticals (TEVA) posted fourth quarter adjusted earnings of $0.76 per share, which is $0.03 more than the consensus estimate of $0.73 per share. The company further distinguished itself by increasing its quarterly dividend some 33% to roughly $0.15 per share, based on recent exchange rates. Illinois Tool Works (ITW) issued in-line earnings guidance of $0.26 to $0.42 per share for the first quarter and $1.84 to $2.48 per share for the full fiscal year. Reuters reports that General Motors (GM) will receive $4 billion in additional governmental financial aid ahead of the company's deadline to submit its survival plan. Meanwhile, GM bondholders are looking to swap their claims for equity stakes, Reuters reports.

06:30 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -20.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -36.00.

06:30 am : Nikkei...7645.40...-104.70...-1.40%. Hang Seng...12945.40...-510.50...-3.80%.

06:30 am : FTSE...1070.58...-64.50...-1.60%. DAX...42778.0...-88.70...-2.00%.


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