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 Post subject: September 9th Friday Trade Results - Profit $9,625.00
PostPosted: Fri Sep 09, 2016 5:40 pm 
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Joined: Sat Jan 10, 2009 1:06 pm
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Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
TheStrategyLab Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
Phone: +1 708 572-4885
Free Chat Room: http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=164
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click on the above image to view today's performance verification

Price Action Trade Performance for Today: Emini TF ($TF_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.00 points, Emini ES ($ES_F) futures @ $9,625.00 dollars or +192.50 points, Light Crude Oil CL ($CL_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.00 points, Gold GC ($GC_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.00 points and EuroFX 6E ($6E_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.0000 ticks. Total Profit @ $9,625.00 dollars

Disclaimer: Today's trading performance is not an indication of my future performance and not an indication of the future performance for any trader that decides to learn/apply WRB Analysis.

Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures: 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures: 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup
Light Crude Oil CL (WTI) Futures: 1 tick or 0.01 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup
Gold GC Futures: 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup
EuroFX 6E Futures: 1 tick or 0.0001 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup

Today's Trade Log: All of my live trades are posted real-time in the timestamp ##TheStrategyLab free chat room for anyone to do a real-time review. The live trade is posted 3.2 seconds on average after the trade confirmation via an auto script to minimize delays in posting of my trades. You can review today's price action trade journal about my trades (e.g. time, price entry, contract size, price exit, market analysis) as the trade traversed to its completion. In addition, sometimes I'll post real-time trading tips in the free ##TheStrategyLab chat room involving WRBs, WRB Hidden GAPs, Key Market Events (KME), Tutorial Chapters 2 & 3, WRB Zones, Reaction Highs/Lows, Contracting Volatility or Expanding Volatility. Its all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=160&t=2455

Image ##TheStrategyLab Chat Room is free. The free chat room is not a signal calling trading room. I do not mentor (never have) although I get many requests to do mentoring. There is education but only in members private threads at the forum involving members asking questions (help) about their own trading. Thus, the primary purpose of TheStrategyLab free chat room is for you to use as your trade journal so that you can use as valuable feedback and for members to help each other...as in more eyes on the market. Also, you can use TheStrategyLab free chat room to ask real-time WRB Analysis questions. Yet, please do not post your brokerage statements in the free chat room. Instead, its highly recommended that you only post your brokerage statements in your private thread for security reasons. TheStrategyLab free chat room is on IRC via users request because the IRC servers are located in many different countries, software in many different languages and many different types of social media software can be used to log in. I'm the moderator of the free chat room. Thus, I keep the peace between members via removing trouble makers so that members can peacefully post their market observations, trades, WRB Analysis commentary about the markets.

TheStrategyLab free chat room is not for traders looking for someone to hold their hands and tell them when to buy or sell. TheStrategyLab is for you to post your real-time analysis or trades so that you can review as feedback for any trading day to provide valuable information about the results in your broker statements. Access instructions for chat room @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=164

Quote:
All of my real-time posted trades involves price action concepts from the WRB Analysis free study guide, Advance WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 4 - 12 and the Volatility Trading Report (VTR) trade signal strategies. Analysis -----> Trade Signals

Also, posted below for you to review are direct links to information about my price action trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis). I'm primarily a day trader because it suits my personal lifestyle but I do occasionally swing trade and position trade. Simply, my trade method is applicable for position trading, swing trading and day trading.

Image Price Action Analysis via Advance WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=119&t=718

Analysis -----> Trade Signals

Image Trade Signal Strategies via Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our price action trade strategies with support (answering your questions) prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR). All WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1 - 12 are included in the purchase of the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Image Daily Trading Plan Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=302&t=3259 contains brief information about trading plan, market context, brokers, trading time frames, position size management and other discussions.

-----------------------------

Market Context Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, Briefing, Reuters and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED/ECB/BOE/IMF actions or any important global economic events (e.g. Eurozone, MarketWatch.com) that had an impact on today's price action in many trading instruments I monitor during the trading day. Simply, I'm a strong believer that key market events causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility resulting in trade opportunities (swing points and strong continuation price actions) that reach profit targets. Thus, I pay attention to these key market events, intermarket analysis (e.g. Forex EurUsd, EuroFX 6E futures, Gold GC futures, Light Crude Oil (WTI) CL & Brent Oil futures, Eurex DAX futures, Euronext FTSE100 futures, Emini ES futures, Emini TF futures, Treasury ZB futures and U.S. Dollar Index futures) while using WRB Analysis from one trade to the next trade to give me the market context for price action trading before the appearance of my technical analysis trade signals. Therefore, I maintain these archives for easy review to allow me to understand what was happening on any given trading day in the past involving key market events to help better understand my trade decisions (day trading, swing trading, position trading)...something I can not get from my broker PnL statements alone. Further, most financial websites remove (delete) their archives after a few years to make room for new content. Therefore, I maintain my own archives of the news content so that I have it available for me when financial websites no longer archives their content.

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click on the above image to view today's price action of key markets


4:10 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The stock market ended an otherwise flat week on a sharply lower note as increasing interest rates spurred selling interest in the broader market. The Nasdaq Composite (-2.5%) settled in-line with the S&P 500 (-2.5%) and behind the Dow Jones Industrial Average (-2.1%). The three indices ended the week with losses between 1.7% and 2.0%.

Global markets tilted to the downside as participants responded to a negative set of economic data and news that North Korea carried out another nuclear test. However, the negative headlines failed to elicit a bid in the bond market. The counterintuitive move in bonds incited further angst regarding yesterday's policy statement from the European Central Bank and rising fed funds rate hike expectations.

The ECB released its September policy statement yesterday, holding its monetary policy stance steady. The central bank opted to keep its key interest rates at record lows while maintaining the size and scope of its asset purchases. Furthermore, ECB President Mario Draghi struck a hawkish tone, indicating that the Governing Council didn't discuss extending the asset purchase program at the latest meeting.

DoubleLine's Jeffrey Gundlach added to rate angst, stating after yesterday's close that it's time to get defensive on bonds. The bond fund manager argued that a shift in longer-term inflation risk will drive monetary policy going forward. On that note, Boston Fed President, and FOMC voter, Eric Rosengren struck a somewhat hawkish tone today, stating that there is a reasonable case for continuing on the gradual path towards interest rate normalization. Furthermore, Fed Governor Daniel Tarullo said that he wouldn't foreclose the possibility of a rate hike this year.

The benchmark index remained under heavy pressure throughout today's session, carving out a session low in the final hour of trade. All ten sectors ended with sharp losses as energy (-2.8%), materials (-2.9%), telecom services (-3.4%), and utilities (-3.8%) finished on the bottom of the leaderboard. Conversely, financials (-1.9%) and health care (-2.0%) ended with the narrowest losses.

The PHLX Semiconductor Index (-3.7%) finished well behind the benchmark index, retracing its August gain. The index rallied 4.5% in August, but has declined 4.1% thus far in September. Skyworks (SWKS 66.76, -4.67) finished at the bottom of the index. The iPhone supplier declined 8.6% since Apple (AAPL 103.13, -2.39) unveiled the iPhone 7 on September 7.

The commodity-sensitive energy (-2.8%) space finished in the red as crude oil ended its day lower by 3.7% ($45.88/bbl; -$1.78). However, WTI crude finished the week higher by 3.4%. The energy component was under pressure as participants dialed back the potential impact of yesterday's inventory report from the Department of Energy. In the sector, Williams Cos (WMB 30.04, -1.11) lost 3.6% after Enterprise Products (EPD 26.81, -0.44) announced that it is no longer pursuing a combination with the company.

Biotechnology displayed relative weakness in the health care sector (-2.0%), evidenced by the 3.3% loss in the iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 278.63, -9.40). Biogen (BIIB 296.10, -11.63) underperformed in the ETF after the stock was removed from the focus list at Goldman Sachs. Conversely, Gilead Science (GILD 78.08, -0.90) fell 1.2% after Gabelli issued a bullish note on the name.

The economically-sensitive financial sector (-1.9%) finished ahead of the broader market, benefiting from rising rate hike expectations and some steepening in the yield curve. The fed funds futures market indicates that the odds of a rate hike at the September meeting have increased to 24.0% from 18.0% in the prior session.

Treasuries ended sharply lower with the long end of the curve demonstrating relative weakness. The yield on the 10-yr note rose seven basis points (1.67%) while the yield on the 2-yr note ticked higher by one basis point (0.78%).

Today's participation was above the recent average as more than one billion shares changed hands on the NYSE floor.

Today's economic data was limited to Wholesale Inventories for July:

Wholesale inventories were unchanged in July, as expected, following an unrevised 0.3% increase in June.
The report won't have any material sway on economists' third quarter GDP forecasts since the reading was in-line with the consensus estimate.

For more on this economic release, be sure to visit Briefing.com's Economic Calendar page.

There is no domestic economic data of note scheduled for Monday.

Russell 2000: +7.7% YTD
S&P 500: +4.1% YTD
Dow Jones: +3.8% YTD
Nasdaq Composite: +2.4% YTD

Week in Review: Stocks and Bonds Retreat

The S&P 500 spent the first four days of the week insidea 14-point range, but a Friday sell off pressured the index below its 50-daymoving average (2164.0) for the first time since early July. The benchmarkindex lost 2.4% for the week, narrowing its third-quarter gain to 1.4%.

The first four days of the week were fairly quiet, butThursday evening featured comments from DoubleLine Capital's JeffreyGundlach, who said, "this is a big, big moment," sharing his beliefthat interest rates have bottomed.

Mr. Gundlach's thesis was put to a test almost immediately asNorth Korea conducted its fifth and largest nuclear test on Friday. Thedevelopment was met with condemnation from North Korea's neighbors, butsurprisingly, global bonds did not benefit from a risk-off bid. Instead,selling in the Japanese, Italian, and German 10-yr notes drove their respectiveyields up to -0.03%, 1.25%, and 0.01%. For its part, the U.S. 10-yr yield rose eight basis points to 1.67% on Friday, adding six basis points for the week.

In addition to the comments from Mr. Gundlach, investorsdigested remarks from Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren, who said that areasonable case can be made for continuing gradual tightening of policy. Mr.Rosengren, who is an FOMC voter, also said the labor market could exceed fullemployment next year.

Rate hike expectations edged up when compared to lastFriday. The implied likelihood of a rate hike in September inched up to 24.0%from last week's 21.0% while the implied probability of a December hike climbedto 58.4% from 54.2%.

3:30 pm: [BRIEFING.COM]

The dollar index was +0.4% around the 95.37 level, weighing on commodities overall
Commodities, as measured by the Bloomberg Commodity Index, -1.3% around the 84.02 level
Crude oil gave back nearly all of yesterday's post-EIA gains, closed near session lows after the release of rig count data
October crude oil futures fell $1.78 (-3.7%) to $45.88/barrel
Baker Hughes total U.S. rig count up 11 to 508 following last week's increase of 8.
Monthly IEA data will be released next Tuesday, Sept 13.
The next OPEC meeting will take place in Algiers, Algeria from Sept 26-28.
Color on crude oil price action:
Crude oil futures gave back a substantial portion of yesterday's +4.8% gains in morning pit trading as investors come to the realization that the huge draws in oil inventories reported by API and EIA were likely one-time anomalies that skewed the overarching supply problems that still exist.
Late Wed, API reported a surprising inventory draw of 12.08 mln barrels, compared to last week's build of 0.942 mln barrels and to expectations for a draw of ~100k barrels for the week ending Sept 2.
Following API data, on Thursday EIA petroleum data reported the largest single draw since 1999, as inventories dropped by nearly 15 mln barrels. Crude's initial reaction was a large spike followed by a sustained rally to close pit trading near 2-week highs yesterday.
Yesterday's rally was short-lived however, as a crude oil sell-off ensued in today's morning pit trading, a contributing factor being last week's tropical Hurricane
Hermine, which negatively impacted production in the Gulf region, forcing producers to take precautions & shut down production.
Gulf region imports also fell to ~2.5 mln barrels, their lowest level since 1990 as a result of the storm. Imports in this region are expected to return to normal levels next week.
Natural gas snapped its 2-day streak of gains
October natural gas closed $0.02 lower (-0.7%) at $2.79/MMBtu
In precious metals, gold & silver declined for the third consecutive session as the dollar index rallied to session highs
December gold ended today's session down $6.70 (-0.5%) to $1334.60/oz
December silver closed today's session $0.32 lower (-1.6%) at $19.36/oz

2:55 pm:

[BRIEFING.COM] As the stock market enters its final hour of trade for the week, the Nasdaq Composite (-2.1%) trades behind the S&P 500 (-2.0%) and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (-1.7%).

All ten sectors remain deep in the negative territory with losses in excess of 1.0%. Defensively-oriented utilities (-2.9%) and telecom services (-3.0%) lead to the downside while heavily-weighted financials (-1.5%) and health care (-1.5%) sport the slimmest losses.

The consumer discretionary space (-2.0%) trades in-line with the broader market as auto names underperform. In the group, General Motors (GM 30.51, -1.19) trades lower by 3.8% after announcing that it plans to recall 4.3 million cars over a software issue. Separately, large-cap component Amazon (AMZN 767.10, -16.95) also displays relative weakness, carving out a week-to-date loss of 0.7%. This compares to a weekly loss of 1.8% in the SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT 43.73, -0.74) and 2.6% in the broader consumer discretionary sector.

WTI crude ended its day lower by 3.7% ($45.88/bbl; -$1.78), narrowing its weekly gain to 3.4%.

2:30 pm:

[BRIEFING.COM] The broader market floats near its low as the Nasdaq Composite (-2.0%) trails the S&P 500 (-1.9%). The two indices sport week-to-date losses of 1.8% apiece.

The commodity-sensitive energy space (-2.3%) trades near a session low as crude oil continues to narrow its weekly gain. Oil extended its loss shortly after Baker Hughes reported that the total U.S. rig count rose to 508 following last week's reading of 497. WTI crude trades lower by 3.4% ($46.00/bbl, -$1.62) ahead of its pit session close at 14:30 ET. At this juncture, the energy component sports a weekly gain of 3.6%.

Pipeline companies underperform in the energy sector as Williams Cos (WMB 30.01, -1.14) slides 3.8%. The company has been under pressure after Enterprise Products (EPD 26.96, -0.29) announced that it is no longer pursuing a combination with Williams. The broader sector has narrowed its year-to-date gain to 14.6%, but remains ahead of the remaining sectors on the yearly leaderboard.

The U.S. Dollar Index (95.47, +0.44, +0.46%) hovers near its session high as the yen and euro lose ground to the greenback. The euro has lost 0.4% against the buck (1.1217) while the dollar/yen pair trades higher by 0.2% (102.67).

2:00 pm:

[BRIEFING.COM] The broader market trades near recently-established session lows. The S&P 500 has declined 1.9%, falling 1.8% on a week-to-date basis.

The Dow Jones Transportation Average (-2.4%) trades behind the benchmark index as airline names underperform the index. The U.S. Global Jets ETF (JETS 23.11, -0.64) trades lower by 2.7%, narrowing its weekly gain to 1.6%. This compares to a loss of 1.8% in the broader Transportation Index over that time. Meanwhile, Avis Budget (CAR 36.47, -1.75) rounds out the index as it trades lower in sympathy with CarMax (KMX 55.85, -4.32). CarMax has declined 7.2% after being downgraded to "Neutral" from "Buy" at Buckingham Research.

In the industrial sector (-2.3%), Dow components Caterpillar (CAT 81.35, -2.19) and Boeing (BA 129.11, -3.79) trade behind the price-weighted index, sliding 2.7% and 2.9%, respectively. The broader sector has declined 2.5% on a week-to-date basis, trading ahead of only consumer staples (-2.1%; week-to-date: -3.2%) and materials (-2.7%; week-to-date: -3.4%) over that period.

Treasuries have notched new lows as the long end of the curve continues to underperform. The yield on the 30-yr bond has gained nine basis points (2.39%) while the benchmark 10-yr yield has risen eight basis points (1.68%).

1:35 pm:

[BRIEFING.COM] The major U.S. indices have continued to unwind since our last update as stocks come under heavy pressure to end the trading week.

A look inside the Dow Jones Industrial Average shows that Verizon (VZ 52.12, -1.48), Boeing (BA 129.54, -3.36), & Caterpillar (CAT 81.41, -2.13) are underperforming amid broad market weakness as stocks pullback 1.5%

Conversely, JPMorgan (JPM 67.11, -0.14) is at the top of the Dow as financials, while still in negative territory, outperform all other sectors.

Accounting for today's slump, the DJIA is poised to end the week lower by 1.5%.

1:00 pm:

[BRIEFING.COM] The stock market trades on a sharply lower note at midday as a downturn in the Treasury market fuels selling interest in equities. Other focal points impacting today's trade have included a pullback in crude oil, rising rate hike expectations, bearish commentary from bond manager Jeffrey Gundlach, and a nuclear test carried out by North Korea. At midday, Nasdaq Composite (-1.7%) trades behind the S&P 500 (-1.5%) and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (-1.3%).

Equities gapped down at the start of the session, responding to a negative bias in global markets. European indices led the retreat as disappointing economic data and an underground nuclear test in North Korea failed to elicit a bid in sovereign bonds. The asset class has been under pressure after the European Central Bank left its monetary policy stance unchanged in September. Additionally, ECB President Mario Draghi struck a somewhat hawkish tone yesterday, indicating that the central bank did not discuss an expansion of the bank's asset purchase program at its latest meeting.

Bearish commentary from DoubleLine's Jeffrey Gundlach also helped to incite bond bears here at home. Mr. Gundlach stated after yesterday's close that it's time to get defensive on bonds. The bond fund manager contends that rising longer-term inflation risks will drive a shift in monetary policy. On that note, Boston Fed President, and FOMC voter, Eric Rosengren struck a somewhat hawkish tone this morning, indicating that there is a reasonable case for continuing a gradual path towards interest rate normalization.

However, Federal Reserve Governor Daniel Tarullo walked back rate hike expectations slightly, stating that he would like to see sustained evidence of inflation before hiking. The fed funds futures market indicates that the odds of a rate hike at the September meeting have increased to 24.0% from 18.0% in the prior session.

The benchmark index floats near a session low, testing support near the 2147/2150 price level. All ten sectors trade in the red with energy (-2.0%), materials (-2.1%), telecom services (-2.3%), and utilities (-2.3%) rounding out the board. On the flipside, financials (-0.9%) and health care (-1.1%) sport the slimmest losses.

The PHLX Semiconductor Index (-2.8%) trades behind the broader market as the growth-sensitive group reverses its August gain. The index has declined 3.3% so far in September after rising 4.5% in August. In the group, Skyworks (SWKS 67.32, -4.08) underperforms, rounding out the price-weighted index. The iPhone supplier has declined 7.8% since Apple (AAPL 103.82, -1.70) unveiled the iPhone 7 on September 7.

In the consumer staples space (-1.7%), retail names display relative weakness as Dow component Wal-Mart (WMT 70.42, -1.41) declines 2.0%. Conversely, Kroger (KR 31.60, +0.29) has gained 0.9% as investors weigh a bottom-line beat against cautious guidance. The broader sector has lost 2.8% this week, rounding out the weekly leaderboard.

The commodity-sensitive energy (-2.0%) space underperforms amid a downturn in crude oil futures. WTI crude trades lower by 2.9% ($46.26/bbl; -$1.36) after rising 4.8% in the prior session. The energy component is under pressure amid strengthening in the dollar and as participants walk back yesterday's inventory report from the Department of Energy. The sharp decline in stockpiles has been partly attributed to import complications associated with Tropical Storm Hermine.

The economically-sensitive financial sector (-0.9%) trades ahead of the broader market, benefiting from steepening in the yield curve and rising rate hike expectations. In the group, life insurance names outperform as Prudential (PRU 79.59, +0.92) and MetLife (MET 44.07, +0.61) gain 1.2% and 1.5%, respectively.

Treasuries trade near session lows with the long end of the curve demonstrating relative weakness. The yield on the 10-yr note has increased seven basis points (1.67%) while the yield on the 2-yr note has ticked higher by one basis point (0.78%).

Today's economic data was limited to Wholesale Inventories for July:

Wholesale inventories were unchanged in July, as expected, following an unrevised 0.3% increase in June.
The report won't have any material sway on economists' third quarter GDP forecasts since the reading was in-line with the consensus estimate.

For more on this economic release, be sure to visit Briefing.com's Economic Calendar page.

12:30 pm:

[BRIEFING.COM] The major averages float near recently-established lows as the Nasdaq Composite (-1.6%) trails the S&P 500 (-1.4%).

All ten sectors continue to trade in negative territory as materials (-1.9%), energy (-1.9%), telecom services (-2.3%), and utilities (-2.3%) round out the leaderboard.

Biotechnology underperforms in the health care sector (-1.1%), evidenced by the 2.0% decline in the iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 282.38, -5.64). In the ETF, Biogen (BIIB 300.34, -7.39) has declined 2.4% after being removed from the focus list at Goldman Sachs. Conversely, Gilead Science (GILD 78.59, -0.39) sports a slimmer loss, slipping 0.6%. The stock is benefiting from a bullish note from Gabelli.

In the broader sector, health care provider names outperform with Humana (HUM 177.30, +0.88) and Cigna (CI 128.90, +1.23) gaining 0.5% and 1.0%, respectively. The broader sector has lost 0.7% this week, topping the weekly leaderboard.

The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX 15.08, +2.57, +20.5%) has surged today, signaling an increased interest in purchasing portfolio insurance. The fear indicator hasn't been at this level since July 7.

11:55 am:

[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (-1.3%) has notched a fresh session low, which puts the index on track to end the week lower by 1.2%.

The PHLX Semiconductor Index (-2.5%) displays relative weakness as the growth-sensitive group slips on a monthly basis. The price-weighted index sports a month-to-date loss of 3.1% after advancing 4.5% in August. Skyworks (SWKS 67.09, -4.33) rounds out the index, extending its weekly loss. The iPhone supplier has declined 8.1% since Apple (AAPL 104.32, -1.20) unveiled the iPhone 7 on September 7.

In the broader technology sector (-1.1%), Microsoft (MSFT 57.08, -0.34) and Alphabet (GOOG 769.41, -5.91) outperform, but still trade beneath their flat lines. The two large caps have declined 0.6% and 0.8%, respectively. Separately, software and networking names outperform with Oracle (ORCL 40.59, -0.12) and Cisco Systems (CSCO 31.23, -0.24) losing a respective 0.3% and 0.8%. The broader technology sector sports a week-to-date loss of 1.3%, trading narrowly behind the benchmark index over that time.

On the commodities front, WTI crude trades lower by 2.4% ($46.46/bbl; -$1.16) while gold has ticked lower by 0.3% to $1,337.20/ozt.

11:30 am:

[BRIEFING.COM] The broader market remains near its worst level of the day as the S&P 500 (-1.2%) floats two points above its session low. Elsewhere, small and mid-cap indices underperform with the S&P Mid Cap 400 and the Russell 2000 falling 1.6% apiece.

The consumer staples space (-1.6%) displays relative weakness, falling alongside other defensively-oriented sectors. In the group, tobacco companies underperform as Reynolds American (RAI 48.33, -1.50) slips 3.0%. The stock has declined 5.2% since the company reaffirmed its full-year outlook on September 7. Dow component Wal-Mart (WMT 70.57, -1.26) has declined 1.7%, trading behind the price-weighted index. Conversely, Kroger (KR 31.32, +0.01) trades flat as investors mull cautious guidance against a bottom-line beat. The broader sector has lost 2.8% this week, rounding out the weekly leaderboard.

Treasuries trade near session lows with the long end of the curve underperforming. The yield on the 10-yr note has increased seven basis points (1.67%) while the yield on the 2-yr note has ticked higher by one basis point (0.79%).

10:55 am:

[BRIEFING.COM] The major averages float near recently-established session lows as the S&P 500 (-1.2%) trails the Nasdaq Composite (-1.1%) and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (-1.0%).

The commodity-sensitive energy sector (-1.9%) joins defensively-oriented consumer staples (-1.7%), telecom services (-1.7%), and utilities (-2.4%) on the bottom of the leaderboard.

The energy group is moving lower amid a downturn in crude oil futures. WTI crude trades lower by 2.7% ($46.33/bbl; -$1.29), narrowing its week-to-date gain to 4.4%. In the group, oilfield service names and pipeline companies underperform. Baker Hughes (BHI 50.00, -1.29) and Halliburton (HAL 42.64, -1.48) have declined by 2.6% and 3.4%, respectively. Separately, Dow component Chevron (CVX 102.44, -1.68) trades behind the price-weighted index.

On the central bank front, Federal Reserve Governor Daniel Tarullo recently stated that he would like to see more evidence of sustained inflation before moving interest rates higher. The dovish commentary moved the U.S. Dollar Index (95.42, +0.39, +0.42%) off its best level of the day, and elicited some selling interest in the fed funds futures market. The implied probability of a rate hike at the September meeting fell to 27.0% after briefly showing a probability of 30.0%.

10:30 am: [BRIEFING.COM]

The dollar index was +0.6% around the 95.55 level, weighing on commodities overall
Commodities, as measured by the Bloomberg Commodity Index, were down -1.0% around the 84.27 level
Crude oil gave back nearly half of yesterday's notable +4.8% post-EIA gains ahead of today's Baker Hughes rig count data
October crude oil futures were down $1.01 (-2.2%) around the $46.61/barrel level
Crude oil futures are +7% for the week
Rig count data will be released at 1 pm ET today.
Monthly IEA data will be released next Tuesday
Color on recent price action in crude oil:
Crude oil futures gave back a substantial portion of yesterday's +4.8% gains in morning pit trading as investors come to the realization that the huge draws in oil inventories reported by API and EIA were likely one-time anomalies that skewed the overarching supply problems that still exist.
Late Wed, API reported a surprising inventory draw of 12.08 mln barrels, compared to last week's build of 0.942 mln barrels and to expectations for a draw of ~100k barrels for the week ending Sept 2.
Following API data, on Thursday EIA petroleum data reported the largest single draw since 1999, as inventories dropped by nearly 15 mln barrels. Crude's initial reaction was a large spike followed by a sustained rally to close pit trading near 2-week highs yesterday.
Yesterday's rally was short-lived however, as a crude oil sell-off ensued in today's morning pit trading, a contributing factor being last week's tropical Hurricane Hermine, which negatively impacted production in the Gulf region, forcing producers to take precautions & shut down production.
Gulf region imports also fell to ~2.5 mln barrels, their lowest level since 1990 as a result of the storm. Imports in this region are expected to return to normal levels next week.
The next OPEC meeting will take place in Algiers, Algeria from Sept 26-28.
Natural gas extended yesterday's post-EIA rally, saw gains for the second consecutive session in morning pit trading
October natural gas futures were up $0.02 (+0.7%) around the $2.82/MMBtu level
In precious metals, gold saw a modest decline while silver traded sharply lower as the dollar index rallied to session highs
December gold futures were down $4.10 (-0.3%) around the $1337.50/oz level
December silver futures were down $0.22 (-1.1%) around the $19.46/oz level

10:05 am:

[BRIEFING.COM] The major averages trade near recently-established session lows with the S&P 500 falling 1.0%.

Just released, July wholesale inventories came in flat while the Briefing.com consensus expected a reading of 0.0%. Today's report followed last month's unrevised reading of 0.3%.

The leaderboard remains little changed with countercyclical telecom services (-1.5%), consumer staples (-1.5%), and utilities (-2.1%) leading to the downside. Conversely, financials (-0.5%) and technology (-0.7%) continue to trade ahead of the broader market.

The U.S. Dollar Index (95.52, +0.49, +0.52%) trades near a session high, responding to increased fed funds rate hike expectations. The fed funds futures market shows that the implied probability of a rate hike at the September meeting has increased to 30.0% from yesterday's probability of 18.0%. The move higher was aided by recent hawkish commentary from Boston Fed President, and FOMC voter, Eric Rosengren.

9:45 am:

[BRIEFING.COM] The stock market began the day on a lower note as the S&P 500 (-0.8%) and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (-0.8%) trade slightly behind the Nasdaq Composite (-0.7%).

All ten sectors trade in the red with industrials (-1.0%), telecom services (-1.0%), consumer staples (-1.1%) and utilities (-1.6%) showing relative weakness. Conversely, heavily-weighted financials (-0.5%) and technology (-0.5%) sport the slimmest losses.

The economically-sensitive financial sector (-0.5%) trades ahead of the broader market as life insurance names and money center banks outperform. Bank of America (BAC 16.00, +0.14) and MetLife (MET 44.07, +0.61) have gained 0.9% and 1.4%, respectively. The broader sector is benefiting from steepening in the yield curve.

In the consumer staples (-1.1%) space, retailers demonstrate relative weakness with Wal-Mart (WMT 70.98, -0.85) and Costco (COST 151.53, -1.94) declining by 1.2% apiece.

Treasuries trade on a lower note as the long end of the curve demonstrates relative weakness. The yield on the 10-yr note has risen six basis points (1.66%) while the yield on the 2-yr note is higher by three basis points (0.79%).

On the commodities front, WTI crude trades lower by 1.9% ($46.71/bbl; -$0.92) while gold has declined 0.4% to $1,336.00/ozt.

9:18 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -6.70. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -30.40.

The stock market is on track for a lower open as the S&P 500 futures trade seven points below fair value.

Equity futures float near session lows, succumbing to a wide range of selling interest. European indices pace the retreat as investors examine weaker-than expected trade data out of Germany. Germany's trade surplus narrowed to EUR19.40 billion (from EUR21.40 billion) in July (expected EUR22.00 billion) while both imports (-0.7% month-over-month; expected: 0.8%) and exports (-2.6% month-over-month; expected: +0.3%) also missed expectations. Interestingly enough the disappointing data has not led to a bid in sovereign bonds. Furthermore, an underground nuclear test in North Korea has not boosted demand for sovereign bonds either. The yield on the 10-yr bund has risen five basis points (-0.01%).

On the home front, Doubleline's Jeffrey Gundlach also contributed to rate angst, predicting that rates are at a turning point and that inflationary pressures may become visible soon. The fund manager advocated that participants rethink the duration of their positions. Separately, Boston Fed President, and FOMC voter, Eric Rosengren struck a somewhat hawkish tone this morning, indicating that there is a reasonable case for continuing a gradual path towards interest rate normalization.

In company specific news, JPMorgan Chase (JPM 66.99, -0.26) trades lower by 0.4% after being downgraded to "Neutral" from "Outperform" at Macquarie. The firm cited a challenging rate environment for the downgrade. Separately, Kroger (KR 30.75, -0.56) has declined 1.8% after lowering its full-year earnings estimates below consensus. However, the company did beat bottom-line estimates for the quarter.

Today's economic data will be limited to Wholesale Inventories for July (Briefing.com consensus 0.0%), which will be released at 10:00 ET.

8:56 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -7.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -29.90.

The S&P 500 futures trade seven points below fair value.

Equity indices across Asia ended Friday on a mostly lower note while Japan's Nikkei outperformed, ending flat. The bulk of the overnight attention was on the Korean Peninsula after a shallow 5.3 magnitude earthquake near North Korea's border with China was interpreted as a sign of the country's fifth nuclear test. A few hours later, North Korea confirmed the reports, saying it conducted its largest test to date. The resulting caution led to some strengthening in the yen, but the currency has given up its gain in recent action. Separately, the Bank of Korea kept its key interest rate at 1.25%, as expected.

In economic data:
China's August PPI -0.8% year-over-year (consensus -0.9%; last -1.7%). August CPI +0.1% month-over-month (expected 0.3%; last 0.2%); +1.3% year-over-year (consensus 1.7%; previous 1.8%)
Japan's Tertiary Industry Activity Index +0.3% month-over-month (expected 0.4%; last 0.7%) and M2 Money Stock +3.3% year-over-year, as expected (last 3.4%)
Australia's July Home Loans -4.2% month-over-month (expected -1.5%; last 1.7%)
New Zealand's August Electronic Card Retail Sales +3.7% year-over-year (last 5.8%); -0.4% month-over-month (last 0.3%)

---Equity Markets---

Japan's Nikkei settled just above its flat line, ending the week higher by 0.2%. Four sectors posted gains with energy (+0.8%) and materials (+0.8%) showing relative strength while consumer staples (-1.5%) underperformed. J Front Retailing, Hitachi Construction, Olympus, Minebea, and Dentsu gained between 2.2% and 5.1%. On the downside, DeNA, Kirin Holdings, Kikkoman, NTT Data, and Tokio Marine Holdings lost between 1.3% and 3.2%.
Hong Kong's Hang Seng added 0.8%, extending its weekly gain to 3.6%. Gaming names and select financials ended in the lead with China Life Insurance, Bank of East Asia, Bank of China Hong Kong, Sands China, and Galaxy Entertainment advancing between 2.1% and 4.9%.
China's Shanghai Composite lost 0.6%, trimming its weekly gain to 0.4%. Shandong Xinchao Energy, Tianjin Realty Development, BTG Hotels, and Shanghai Kai Kai Industrial posted losses between 3.5% and 4.0%.

Major European indices trade in negative territory, but losses in regional indices have been contained to no more than 1.0%. The European Central Bank released an evaluation of the asset purchase program through its working papers series, noting that quantitative easing is comparable to a 100-basis point rate cut. On a separate note, Eurogroup Chief Jeroen Dijsselbloem said that Greece has only met 2 of its 15 targets for receiving the next round of bailout funds, suggesting the country could return to headlines soon. The euro is little changed against the dollar, adding 0.1% to 1.1243.

In economic data:
Germany's July trade surplus narrowed to EUR19.40 billion from EUR21.40 billion (expected surplus of EUR22.00 billion). July Imports -0.7% month-over-month (expected 0.8%; last 1.1%) and July Exports -2.6% month-over-month (consensus 0.3%; last 0.2%)
UK's July trade deficit narrowed to GBP11.76 billion from GBP19.29 billion (expected deficit of GBP11.75 billion). Inflation Expectations increased to 2.2% from 2.0%
France's July Industrial Production -0.6% month-over-month (expected 0.2%; last -0.7%)
Spain's July Industrial Production +0.3% year-over-year (last 0.8%)
Swiss August Unemployment Rate ticked up to 3.2% from 3.1% (expected 3.1%)

---Equity Markets---

UK's FTSE is lower by 0.7% with homebuilders and consumer names under pressure. Burberry, Marks & Spencer, Taylor Wimpey, Morrison Supermarkets, Barratt Developments, and Dixons Carphone down between 1.0% and 2.5%. Select financials outperform with RBS, Barclays, Lloyds Banking, and HSBC up between 0.9% and 2.3%.
France's CAC has given up 0.7% amid weakness in consumer names. Danone, L'Oreal, Pernod Ricard, Louis Vuitton, and Kering are down between 0.5% and 1.8%. Financials have bucked the trend with Societe Generale, Credit Agricole, and BNP Paribas up between 0.6% and 1.5%.
Germany's DAX is lower by 0.6% with half of its components in the red. Heavyweights Bayer, BASF, SAP, and Siemens are down between 0.9% and 1.3% while financials outperform. Commerzbank has climbed 0.9% and Deutsche Bank is up 5.2% amid reports the bank is close to reaching an MBS settlement with U.S. authorities.

8:30 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -6.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -28.20.

Equity futures meander near fresh session lows as the S&P 500 futures trade six points below fair value.

In company specific news, Finisar (FNSR 27.05, +3.82) has rallied 16.4% in pre-market trade as investors mull better-than-expected top- and bottom-line results. The company also issued above-consensus second-quarter earnings guidance. Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG 437.00, +0.69) has inched higher by 0.2% amid reports that the company settled cases with customers who became ill at the restaurant chain. The consumer discretionary name has gained 7.0% week-to-date, which compares to a loss of 0.6% in the broader sector.

On the commodities front, WTI crude trades lower 1.6% ($46.87/bbl; -0.75), trimming its weekly gain to 5.6%. The energy component rallied 4.8% yesterday, after the Department of Energy confirmed a larger-than-expected draw in crude oil and gasoline inventories. However, the sharp decline in stockpiles was likely owed to import complications associated with Tropical Storm Hermine.

8:05 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -3.70. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -18.50.

U.S. equity futures trade near overnight lows with the S&P 500 futures floating four points below fair value. Index futures are under pressure, marching lower lockstep with global markets. China's Shanghai Composite (-0.6%) underperformed following the release of some lackluster inflation data. China's August CPI ticked higher by 0.1% (expected: +0.3%) while PPI has declined 0.8% year-over-year (consensus: -0.9%). Separately, reports out of North Korea indicated that the country conducted its fifth nuclear test. Speculation began after a shallow 5.3 magnitude earthquake was detected near North Korea's border with China.

Across the pond, regional bourses trade in negative territory while sovereign bonds also display relative weakness. The yield on the 10-yr bund has risen five basis points to -0.1% as investors continue to mull yesterday's disappointing policy statement from the European Central Bank. For its part, WTI crude is trading lower by 1.5% ($46.93/bbl, -$0.69), narrowing its weekly gain.

Treasuries trade on a lower note with the long end of the curve demonstrating relative weakness. The yield on the 10-yr note has risen five basis points (1.64%) while the yield on the 2-yr note is higher by one basis point (0.78%).

On the economic front, data will be limited to Wholesale Inventories for July (Briefing.com consensus 0.0%), which will cross the wires at 10:00 ET.

In U.S. corporate news of note:

Restoration Hardware (RH 38.97, +3.68): +10.4% after beating top- and bottom-line estimates for the quarter and reaffirming its FY17 outlook
Navistar (NAV 19.20, +0.08): +0.4% following the stock being upgraded to "Neutral" at Goldman
Williams Cos (WMB 30.30, -0.85): -2.7% after Enterprise Products (EPD 27.25, 0.00) announced that it is no longer pursuing a potential combination with the name
Kroger (KR 30.32, -0.99): -3.2% following the company reporting a bottom-line beat on light revenue and lowering its FY16 guidance

Reviewing overnight developments:

Asia-Pacific indices ended Friday on a mixed note with Hong Kong's Hang Seng (+0.8%), Japan's Nikkei (UNCH), and China's Shanghai Composite (-0.6%).
In economic data:
China's August PPI -0.8% year-over-year (consensus -0.9%; last -1.7%). August CPI +0.1% month-over-month (expected 0.3%; last 0.2%); +1.3% year-over-year (consensus 1.7%; previous 1.8%)
Japan's Tertiary Industry Activity Index +0.3% month-over-month (expected 0.4%; last 0.7%) and M2 Money Stock +3.3% year-over-year, as expected (last 3.4%)
Australia's July Home Loans -4.2% month-over-month (expected -1.5%; last 1.7%)
New Zealand's August Electronic Card Retail Sales +3.7% year-over-year (last 5.8%); -0.4% month-over-month (last 0.3%)
In news:
A shallow 5.3 magnitude earthquake near North Korea's border with China was interpreted as a sign of the country's fifth nuclear test.
A few hours later, North Korea confirmed the reports, saying it conducted its largest test to date.
The resulting caution led to some strengthening in the yen, but the currency has given up its gain in recent action.
On the central bank front, the Bank of Korea kept its key interest rate at 1.25%, as expected.

European indices trade in negative territory with France's CAC (-0.6%) underperforming Germany's DAX (-0.5%) and the U.K.'s FTSE (-0.4%).
In economic data:
Germany's July trade surplus narrowed to EUR19.40 billion from EUR21.40 billion (expected surplus of EUR22.00 billion). July Imports -0.7% month-over-month (expected 0.8%; last 1.1%) and July Exports -2.6% month-over-month (consensus 0.3%; last 0.2%)
UK's July trade deficit narrowed to GBP11.76 billion from GBP19.29 billion (expected deficit of GBP11.75 billion). Inflation Expectations increased to 2.2% from 2.0%
France's July Industrial Production -0.6% month-over-month (expected 0.2%; last -0.7%)
Spain's July Industrial Production +0.3% year-over-year (last 0.8%)
Swiss August Unemployment Rate ticked up to 3.2% from 3.1% (expected 3.1%)
In news:
The European Central Bank released an evaluation of the asset purchase program through its working papers series
The central bank noted that quantitative easing is comparable to a 100-basis point rate cut.
Eurogroup Chief Jeroen Dijsselbloem said that Greece has only met 2 of its 15 targets for receiving the next round of bailout funds.
The euro is little changed against the dollar, trading near the 1.1263 price level.

5:58 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +1.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -8.60.

5:58 am: [BRIEFING.COM] Nikkei...16966...+7.00...+0.00%. Hang Seng...24100...+180.40...+0.80%.

5:58 am: [BRIEFING.COM] FTSE...6842.89...-15.80...-0.20%. DAX...10653.5...-21.80...-0.20%.

Special thanks to Bloomberg, Briefing, Reuters and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. Also, thank you for the review of TheStrategyLab performance record...hopefully the links will be useful for you. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
TheStrategyLab Price Action Trading
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader Image@ http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader

http://www.thestrategylab.com
Phone: +1 708 572-4885
TheStrategyLab Business Hours: 8am - 5pm est (Mon - Fri)
Skype Messenger: kebec2002
wrbanalysis@gmail.com


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