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 Post subject: June 3rd Friday Trade Results - Profit $4562.50
PostPosted: Sat Jun 04, 2016 2:05 am 
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Joined: Sat Jan 10, 2009 2:06 pm
Posts: 4335
Location: Canada
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Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
Phone: +1 708 572-4885
Free Chat Room: http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=164
Archive Real-Time Chat Logs (timestamp, entries/exits, position size): http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewforum.php?f=20
Accolades (Testimonials): http://www.thestrategylab.com/Accolades.htm
Business Hours: 8am - 5pm est (Mon - Fri)
wrbanalysis@gmail.com (24/7)
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Attachment:
060316-wrbtrader-Price-Action-Trading-PnL-Blotter-Profit+4562.50.png
060316-wrbtrader-Price-Action-Trading-PnL-Blotter-Profit+4562.50.png [ 93.05 KiB | Viewed 325 times ]

click on the above image to view today's performance verification

Price Action Trade Performance for Today: Emini TF ($TF_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.00 points, Emini ES ($ES_F) futures @ $4562.50 dollars or +91.25 points, Light Crude Oil CL ($CL_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.00 points, Gold GC ($GC_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.00 points and EuroFX 6E ($6E_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.0000 ticks. Total Profit @ $4562.50 dollars

Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures: 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures: 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup
Light Crude Oil CL (WTI) Futures: 1 tick or 0.01 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup
Gold GC Futures: 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup
EuroFX 6E Futures: 1 tick or 0.0001 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup

Trade Log: All of my live trades are posted real-time in the timestamp ##TheStrategyLab free chat room. The live trade is posted 3.2 seconds on average after the trade confirmation via an auto script. You can read today's price action trading information about my trades (e.g. time, price entry, contract size, price exit) as the trade traversed to its completion. Also, sometimes I'll post real-time trading tips in the free ##TheStrategyLab chat room involving WRBs, WRB Hidden GAPs, Key Market Events (KME), Tutorial Chapters 2 & 3, WRB Zones, Reaction Highs/Lows, Contracting Volatility or Expanding Volatility. Its all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=157&t=2379

The free chat room is not a signal calling chat room. I do not mentor (never have) and there's no education in the free chat room although I occasionally give real-time WRB Analysis. Yet, members are allowed to ask questions. The free chat room is on IRC via users request but I also use two other different communication software (e.g. Skype) for other users that do not like IRC simple text format.

Quote:
All of my real-time posted trades involves price action concepts from the WRB Analysis free study guide, Advance WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 4 - 12 and the Volatility Trading Report (VTR) trade signal strategies. Analysis -----> Trade Signals

Also, posted below are direct links to information about my price action trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis). I'm primarily a day trader because it suits my personal lifestyle but I do occasionally swing trade and position trade. Simply, my trade method is applicable for position trading, swing trading and day trading.

Image ##TheStrategyLab Chat Room is free. Members and I use the chat room to post WRB Analysis commentary, real-time trades and to post anything else related to trading. The chat room helps me tremendously in my own trading because I use it to document (journal) general volatility analysis involving WRB Analysis so that I can easily review at a later date my thoughts as I interacted with the markets...info I can not get from my broker statements. Also, this is not a signal calling chat room where a head trader tells you when to buy or sell and I do not have the time/energy/resources to manage a signal calling chat room. Access instructions for chat room @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=164

Image Price Action Analysis via Advance WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=119&t=718

Analysis -----> Trade Signals

Image Trade Signal Strategies via Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our price action trade strategies with support (answering your questions) prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR). All WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1 - 12 are included in the purchase of the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Image Daily Trading Plan Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=294&t=3166 contains brief information about trading plan, market context, brokers, trading time frames, position size management and other discussions.

-----------------------------

Market Context Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, Briefing, Reuters and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED/ECB/BOE/IMF actions or any important global economic events (e.g. Eurozone, MarketWatch.com) that had an impact on today's price action in many trading instruments I monitor during the trading day. Simply, I'm a strong believer that key market events causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility resulting in trade opportunities (swing points and strong continuation price actions) that reach profit targets. Thus, I pay attention to these key market events, intermarket analysis (e.g. Forex EurUsd, EuroFX 6E futures, Gold GC futures, Light Crude Oil (WTI) CL & Brent Oil futures, Eurex DAX futures, Euronext FTSE100 futures, Emini ES futures, Emini TF futures, Treasury ZB futures and U.S. Dollar Index futures) while using WRB Analysis from one trade to the next trade to give me the market context for price action trading before the appearance of my technical analysis trade signals. Therefore, I maintain these archives to allow me to understand what was happening on any given trading day in the past involving key market events to help better understand my trade decisions (day trading, swing trading, position trading)...something I can not get from my broker statements alone. Further, most financial websites remove (delete) their archives after a few years to make room for new content. Therefore, I maintain my own archives of the news content so that I have it available for me when financial websites no longer archives their content.

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click on the above image to view today's price action of key markets


4:15 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The stock market ended a flat week on a similar note as investors digested a below-consensus reading of the Employment Situation Report for May. The S&P 500 lost 0.3%, ending its week unchanged. Today's trade included weakening in the dollar, a downswing in oil, a rally in the Treasury complex, and the underperformance of the heavyweight financial (-1.4%), consumer discretionary (-0.6%), and technology (-0.4%) sectors. The Nasdaq Composite (-0.6%) finished behind both the benchmark index (-0.3%) and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (-0.2%).

Today's session began on a lower note as a disappointing Employment Situation Report for May altered rate hike expectations. The headline nonfarm payrolls reading (38K; Briefing.com consensus 155K) surprised to the downside while the remainder of the report provided little reprieve. Meanwhile, a larger-than-expected contraction in the ISM Services Index for May (52.9; Briefing.com consensus 55.4) also disappointed investors.

The negative datapoints altered participants' views of potential rate hikes in the coming months. Currently, the fed funds futures market reflects the odds of a rate hike at the June and July meeting of the FOMC at a respective 6.0% and 33.0%. This compares to yesterday's readings of 21.0% and 58.0%, respectively. As a result, the economically-sensitive financial sector (-1.4%) finished at the bottom of the daily and weekly leaderboard.

The major averages notched a session low in the first hour of trading before equities steadily marched off their worst levels of the day. Four sectors ended in the green as countercyclical utilities (+1.7%) led materials (+0.8%), telecom services (+0.6%), and consumer staples (+0.6%). Conversely, the heavyweight financial (-1.4%) consumer discretionary (-0.6%), and technology (-0.4%) sectors rounded out the board.

The financial space (-1.4%) displayed broad-based weakness as money center banks, investment brokerages, and life insurance names experienced sharper losses. In the group, Citigroup (C 45.39, -1.58) and Bank of America (BAC 14.42, -0.52) declined by 3.4% and 3.5%, respectively. Meanwhile, Dow component Goldman Sachs (GS 155.67, -3.61) finished at the bottom of the price-weighted index.

In the consumer discretionary space (-0.6%), media names underperformed with Time Warner (TWX 75.84, -0.91) and CBS (CBS 54.39, -1.01) losing a respective 1.2% and 1.8%. Elsewhere, the SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT 42.65, -0.30) ticked down 0.7% after gaining 1.2% yesterday. On the flipside, Gap (GPS 19.09, +0.76) jumped 4.2% after reporting above-consensus same-store sales for May.

Heavily-weighted Alphabet (GOOGL 735.86, -8.41) and Microsoft (MSFT 51.79, -0.69) underperformed in the technology space (-0.4%), declining 1.2% apiece. Separately, the high-beta chipmakers outperformed, evidenced by the 0.3% gain in the PHLX Semiconductor Index. Component Broadcom (AVGO 162.56, +7.65) outperformed, gaining 4.9% after topping analysts' estimates for the quarter.

Biotechnology displayed relative weakness in the health care space (-0.6%) as the iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 281.77, -4.51) trimmed its weekly gain to 2.0%.

The U.S. Dollar Index (93.93, -1.64) ended on its low as participants trimmed their exposure to a potential policy divergence trade. The euro lost 1.9% against the dollar (1.1364) while the dollar/yen pair ended lower by 2.1% (106.56).

The Treasury complex finished near its best level of the day as the yield on the 10-yr note settled at 1.70% (-10 bps).

Today's participation was above the recent average with more than 888 million shares changing hands at the NYSE floor.

Today's economic data included the Employment Situation Report for May, the April Trade Balance, Factory Orders for April, and ISM Services for May:

The May Employment Situation report will give a lot of people a lot to think about. That includes members of the FOMC, which will now most likely be thinking it is best to hold off on a rate hike at the June meeting.
Nonfarm payrolls increased by 38,000 (Briefing.com consensus 155,000). Over the past three months, job gains have averaged 116,000
April nonfarm payrolls revised to 123,000 from 160,000
March nonfarm payrolls revised to 186,000 from 208,000
Private sector payrolls increased by 25,000 (Briefing.com consensus 160,000)
April private sector payrolls revised to 130,000 from 171,000
March private sector payrolls revised to 167,000 from 184,000
Unemployment rate was 4.7% (Briefing.com consensus 4.9%) versus 5.0% in April
The U6 unemployment rate, which accounts for the total unemployed plus persons marginally attached to the labor force and the underemployed, was unchanged at 9.7%
Persons unemployed for 27 weeks or more accounted for 25.1% of the unemployed versus 25.7% in April
April average hourly earnings were up 0.2% (Briefing.com consensus 0.2%) after being up 0.4% in April
Over the last 12 months, average hourly earnings have risen 2.5%
Aggregate earnings were up 0.2% on top of a downwardly revised 0.4% increase (from 0.8%) for April
The average workweek was 34.4 hours (Briefing.com consensus 34.5) versus 34.4 hours in April
May manufacturing workweek was up 0.1 to 40.8 hours
Factory overtime was unchanged at 3.2 hours
The labor force participation rate was 62.6% versus 62.8% in April
The drop in the unemployment rate to 4.7% certainly stands out, and while it will be a positive talking point for the White House, it also comes with some hot air considering the participation rate fell to 62.6% in May
This follows a reading of 62.8% in April.
Additionally, it might also be touted that the number of unemployed in the civilian labor force declined by 484,000 in May.
The offset to that positive talking point is that the number of employed persons working part-time for economic reasons increased by 468,000 in May.
Average hourly earnings growth was up 2.5% year-over-year in May. That is a positive indication, yet it will get drowned out by the weak payroll growth.
The trade deficit widened to $37.4 billion in April (Briefing.com consensus $41.6 billion) from an upwardly revised $35.5 billion (from -$40.4 billion) in March.
Exports and imports of goods and services for all months through March 2016 were revised with this report to incorporate annual revisions to the goods and services series; hence, the notable deviation from the consensus estimate and the notable revision for the March report.
The widening in the deficit between April and March was the result of imports increasing by $4.5 billion over March to $220.2 billion and exports increasing by only $2.6 billion to $182.8 billion.
It is encouraging to see a pickup in both imports and exports; moreover, the demand pickup for goods was broad-based in both instances.
The real goods deficit increased $1.5 billion to $57.6 billion, yet this will still compute favorably in Q2 GDP forecasts since it is below the first quarter average of $60.5 billion.
New orders for manufactured goods increased 1.9% in April (Briefing.com consensus +1.6%) on top of an upwardly revised 1.7% increase for March (from 1.1%).
That marked the first time that factory orders have increased in back-to-back months since June-July 2014.
Shipments also increased for the second straight month, rising 0.5% after increasing 0.3% in March.
Shipments of nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft -- a metric used in the GDP computation -- increased 0.4% after a downwardly revised 0.0% reading for March (from +0.5%).
Orders for durable goods jumped 3.4%, bolstered by a 65.3% increase in orders for nondefense aircraft and parts. Orders for nondurable goods increased 0.4%.
Total inventories for all manufacturing industries decreased 0.1% while the inventories-to-shipments ratio dipped to 1.36 from 1.37.
The Non-Manufacturing ISM Report on Business (aka The ISM Services Index) checked in at 52.9% in May, down from 55.7% in April. The Briefing.com consensus estimate was pegged at 55.4%.
May marked the 76th straight month of expansion in the non-manufacturing sector.
However, the trend here will nonetheless qualify as a disappointment since it points to a slowdown in activity for the largest side of the U.S. economy.
The downturn in April was driven by a drop in the indexes for New Export Orders (from 56.5 to 49.0), New Orders (from 59.9 to 54.2), Employment (from 53.0 to 49.7), and the Backlog of Orders (from 51.5 to 50.0).
The only indexes showing increases from April were Prices (from 53.4 to 55.6) and Supplier Deliveries (from 51.0 to 52.5).

There is no economic data of note scheduled for release on Monday. However, Fed Chair Yellen will speak before the World Affairs Council of Philadelphia at 12:30 ET.

S&P 500 +2.7% YTD
Russell 2000 +2.5% YTD
Dow Jones +2.2% YTD
Nasdaq Composite -1.3% YTD

Week in Review: Scratching and Clawing

The stock market appeared to be on track for its thirdconsecutive weekly advance going into Friday, but a disappointing EmploymentSituation report for May invited some selling ahead of the weekend. The S&P500 ended the week unchanged while the Nasdaq Composite (+0.2%) eked out aslim gain.

The trading week was underscored by range-bound action nearthe highest levels of the year. Investors received some economic data, whichincluded in-line April Personal Income (+0.4%; Briefing.com consensus 0.4%),in-line core PCE Prices (+0.2%; Briefing.com consensus 0.2%), and a hotter thanexpected Personal Income report for April (+1.0%; Briefing.com consensus 0.7%).However, it was Friday's release of the Employment Situation report for Maythat caught the attention of most participants.

According to the report, only 38,000 nonfarm payrolls wereadded in May (Briefing.com consensus 155,000) while private sector payrollgrowth (+25,000; Briefing.com consensus 160,000) was also well short ofexpectations. Interestingly, the unemployment rate fell to 4.7% from 5.0%(Briefing.com consensus 4.9%), but that was fueled by a decline in labor forceparticipation rate (to 62.6% from 62.8%).

The disappointment on the jobs front was met with a swiftadjustment to rate hike expectations as the probability of a June hike, expressed by the fed funds futures market, dropped to 6.0% from 30.0% a weekago. Expectations for July move also took a hit, falling to 35.0% from 62.0%one week ago.

3:30 pm: [BRIEFING.COM]

The dollar index falls sharply after a lackluster nonfarm payrolls report, boosting metals futures and aiding commodities
Commodities, as measured by the Bloomberg Commodity Index, are up +0.5% at 87.14
Nonfarm payrolls increased by 38,000 (Briefing.com consensus 155,000)
Over the past three months, job gains have averaged 116,000
April nonfarm payrolls revised to 123,000 from 160,000
March nonfarm payrolls revised to 186,000 from 208,000
Crude oil ends pit trading in the red as yesterday's EIA data begins to fade and lack of an OPEC agreement to curtail production sets in
July crude oil futures fell $0.45 (-0.9%) to $48.69/barrel
Baker Hughes total U.S. rig count up 4 at 408 following last week's unchanged mark
Natural gas stalls after 5 sessions in a row of notable gains
July natural gas closed flat at $2.40/MMBtu
In precious metals, gold surges as the dollar plummets, consolidating and closing at session highs
August gold ended today's session up $30.40 (+2.5%) to $1243.00/oz
Silver moves in tandem with gold, seeing a notable rally and closing near its highs of the day
July silver closed today's session $0.33 higher (+2.1%) at $16.36/oz
Base metal copper sees notable gains as the dollar loses momentum in afternoon pit trading
July copper closed $0.04 higher (+1.9%) at $2.11/lb

3:00 pm:

[BRIEFING.COM] The stock market has gained in recent action as the Nasdaq Composite (-0.4%), S&P 500 (-0.1%), and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (-0.1%) continue to trim their respective losses. The benchmark index recently cleared psychological resistance at the 2100 price level.

Five sectors trade in the red with financials (-1.2%) showing the largest loss. The remaining decliners sport losses between 0.1% (health care) and 0.4% (consumer discretionary). On the flipside, utilities (+2.1%), consumer staples (+0.7%), and materials (+0.6%) outperform.

In the consumer staples sector (+0.7%), tobacco names lead with Altria (MO 65.43, +1.12) and Reynolds American (RAI 51.02, +1.10) gaining 1.7% and 2.2%, respectively. The broader sector has gained 1.1% this week, trailing only health care (-0.1%; week-to-date +1.7%) and utilities (+2.0%; week-to-date +2.3%).

The industrial sector (+0.1%) trades in the green as Dow component Caterpillar (CAT 74.72, +1.10) gains 1.5%. The name tops the price-weighted index. Separately, Textron (TXT 39.81, +1.30) has jumped 3.4% on M&A speculation.

On the commodities front, WTI crude ended its day lower by 0.9% ($48.69/bbl). For the week, oil surrendered 1.4%.

2:30 pm:

[BRIEFING.COM] The Nasdaq Composite (-0.7%) trails the S&P 500 (-0.4%) and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (-0.3%).

In front of the pack, countercyclical utilities (+2.0%) trade ahead of telecom services (+0.5%), consumer staples (+0.5%), and materials (+0.5%).

The energy space (-0.6%) hovers above its session low as the group ticks lower alongside crude oil. The energy component extended its losses shortly after the Baker Hughes Rig Count showed that oil rigs increased by nine (325) while natural gas rigs fell by five (82). Currently, WTI crude shows a loss of 1.1% ($48.63/bbl) ahead of its pit session close at 14:30 ET.

In the sector, refining names and independent oil and gas companies demonstrate relative weakness as Devon Energy (DVN 35.68, -1.13) and Marathon Petroleum (MPC 35.49, -1.19) decline by 3.1% and 3.2%, respectively. Conversely, oilfield service names outperform with Baker Hughes (BHI 46.26, +0.36) and Halliburton (HAL 42.47, +0.34) gaining 0.8% apiece.

Gold ended its day higher by 2.5% ($1,243.00/ozt), climbing 2.5% since last week's settlement at $1,213.30. The precious metal has seen a modest bid in electronic trade.

2:00 pm:

[BRIEFING.COM] The major indices have inched higher in recent trade as the S&P 500 (-0.4%) hovers four points off its session low.

The industrial sector (-0.2%) sports the slimmest loss as it leads health care (-0.3%), technology (-0.6%), and consumer discretionary (-0.6%).

In the technology space (-0.6%), the high beta-chipmakers demonstrate relative strength, evidenced by the 0.1% gain in the PHLX Semiconductor Index. In the group, Broadcom (AVGO 163.45, +8.54) has gained 5.5% after reporting above-consensus results for the second quarter. The stock is also benefiting from several target price increases. In the broader tech sector, large cap names Alphabet (GOOGL 736.45, -7.81) and Microsoft (MSFT 51.79, -0.69) have declined by 1.1% and 1.3%, respectively. Elsewhere, Oracle (ORCL 38.99, +0.33) has ticked higher by 0.9% after declining 4.0% yesterday.

In central bank news, Fed Governor and FOMC voter Lael Brainard recently stated that she would like to see more data before making a decision regarding hiking interest rates. Separately, Fed Chair Yellen is scheduled to speak before the World Affairs Council of Philadelphia on Monday at 12:30 ET. This will be the first speaking engagement for the Fed Chair since last Friday's remarks.

1:25 pm:

[BRIEFING.COM] The major averages remain in negative territory with the S&P 500 (-0.4%) drifting in the middle of today's trading range.

The benchmark index entered today's session with a slim gain for the week, but the opening retreat has turned that weekly showing into a 0.2% decline. The modest downtick in the S&P 500 has masked gains in five of ten sectors. The utilities space has jumped 2.6% this week while health care (+1.4%), consumer staples (+0.8%), materials (+0.3%), and telecom services (+0.3%) are also tracking gains for the week.

On the flip side, energy and financials have surrendered close to 1.6% apiece, which puts the two growth-sensitive sectors at the bottom of this week's leaderboard. The financial sector remains down 2.0% year-to-date while the remaining nine groups sport year-to-date gains.

1:05 pm:

[BRIEFING.COM] The stock market trades on a lower note at midday as investors weigh the potential interest rate implications stemming from a disappointing reading of the Employment Situation Report for May. Today's trade has featured a leg lower in the dollar, weakness from the oil pit, and the underperformance of the heavyweight financial (-1.7%) and consumer discretionary (-0.7%) spaces. The Nasdaq Composite ( -0.8%) trades behind the S&P 500 (-0.5%), and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (-0.4%).

Equity markets gapped lower at the start of the session as participants weighed a weaker-than-expected reading of the Employment Situation Report for May. Headline readings showed that nonfarm payrolls (38K; Briefing.com consensus 155K) and nonfarm private payrolls (25k; Briefing.com consensus 160k) each missed expectations by a wide margin. As a result, market expectations for a rate hike at the June meeting fell to 4.0%, compared to yesterday's probability of 21.0%.

The major averages extended their early losses when the ISM Services Index for May (52.9; Briefing.com consensus 55.4) showed a larger-than-expected contraction. However, equity indices have since ticked off their respective lows and continue to trim their losses. Six sectors trade in the red with financials (-1.7%), consumer discretionary (-0.7%), and energy (-0.7%) rounding out the leaderboard. Conversely, countercyclical utilities (+1.7%), consumer staples (+0.4%), and telecom services (+0.3%) lead. For its part, WTI crude trades lower by 1.1% ($48.61/bbl).

The financial sector (-1.7%; week-to-date -1.6%) demonstrates relative weakness as the group rounds out the weekly leaderboard. In the space, investment brokerages, money center banks, and life insurance names each underperform as expectation for an interest rate hike in the short term decline. On the flipside, real estate investment trusts (REITs) are rebounding as their dividend yields attract investors.

In the consumer discretionary space (-0.7%), Signet Jewelers (SIG 88.07, -4.16) has fallen 4.5% as participants weigh allegations regarding product quality and recent cautious commentary on the stock. The broader retail sub-group underperforms, evidenced by the 0.9% decline in the SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT 42.55, -0.40). Meanwhile, Gap (GPS 19.11, +0.78) has gained 4.2% after reporting better-than-feared May same-store sales figures.

Biotechnology trades behind the broader health care space (-0.6%) as the iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 281.88, -4.39) trims its weekly gain to 2.1%. In the broader sector, Johnson & Johnson (JNJ 114.70, +0.21) demonstrates relative strength after briefly notching a new all-time high at 115.39. Elsewhere, Dow component UnitedHealth (UNH 136.50, +0.46) is the second best performer in the price-weighted index.

The Dow Jones Transportation Average (-0.8%) underperforms as airline names lag the index. Delta Air Lines (DAL 41.78, -0.67) and United Continental (UAL 44.51, -0.66) have declined by 1.5% apiece after reports indicated that both may enter bids for Avianca Holdings (AVH 6.40, +1.22).

The U.S. Dollar Index (94.13, -1.44) floats broadly lower as the foreign exchange market factors in diminishing interest rate implications. The euro/dollar pair trades higher by 1.6% (1.1333) while the dollar has lost 2.0% against the yen (106.70).

The Treasury complex floats near its session high as the yield on the 10-yr note slips nine basis points to 1.71%.

Today's economic data included the Employment Situation Report for May, the April Trade Balance, Factory Orders for April, and ISM Services for May:

The May Employment Situation report will give a lot of people a lot to think about. That includes members of the FOMC, which will now most likely be thinking it is best to hold off on a rate hike at the June meeting.
Nonfarm payrolls increased by 38,000 (Briefing.com consensus 155,000). Over the past three months, job gains have averaged 116,000
April nonfarm payrolls revised to 123,000 from 160,000
March nonfarm payrolls revised to 186,000 from 208,000
Private sector payrolls increased by 25,000 (Briefing.com consensus 160,000)
April private sector payrolls revised to 130,000 from 171,000
March private sector payrolls revised to 167,000 from 184,000
Unemployment rate was 4.7% (Briefing.com consensus 4.9%) versus 5.0% in April
The U6 unemployment rate, which accounts for the total unemployed plus persons marginally attached to the labor force and the underemployed, was unchanged at 9.7%
Persons unemployed for 27 weeks or more accounted for 25.1% of the unemployed versus 25.7% in April
April average hourly earnings were up 0.2% (Briefing.com consensus 0.2%) after being up 0.4% in April
Over the last 12 months, average hourly earnings have risen 2.5%
Aggregate earnings were up 0.2% on top of a downwardly revised 0.4% increase (from 0.8%) for April
The average workweek was 34.4 hours (Briefing.com consensus 34.5) versus 34.4 hours in April
May manufacturing workweek was up 0.1 to 40.8 hours
Factory overtime was unchanged at 3.2 hours
The labor force participation rate was 62.6% versus 62.8% in April
The drop in the unemployment rate to 4.7% certainly stands out, and while it will be a positive talking point for the White House, it also comes with some hot air considering the participation rate fell to 62.6% in May
This follows a reading of 62.8% in April.
Additionally, it might also be touted that the number of unemployed in the civilian labor force declined by 484,000 in May.
The offset to that positive talking point is that the number of employed persons working part-time for economic reasons increased by 468,000 in May.
Average hourly earnings growth was up 2.5% year-over-year in May. That is a positive indication, yet it will get drowned out by the weak payroll growth.
The trade deficit widened to $37.4 billion in April (Briefing.com consensus $41.6 billion) from an upwardly revised $35.5 billion (from -$40.4 billion) in March.
Exports and imports of goods and services for all months through March 2016 were revised with this report to incorporate annual revisions to the goods and services series; hence, the notable deviation from the consensus estimate and the notable revision for the March report.
The widening in the deficit between April and March was the result of imports increasing by $4.5 billion over March to $220.2 billion and exports increasing by only $2.6 billion to $182.8 billion.
It is encouraging to see a pickup in both imports and exports; moreover, the demand pickup for goods was broad-based in both instances.
The real goods deficit increased $1.5 billion to $57.6 billion, yet this will still compute favorably in Q2 GDP forecasts since it is below the first quarter average of $60.5 billion.
New orders for manufactured goods increased 1.9% in April (Briefing.com consensus +1.6%) on top of an upwardly revised 1.7% increase for March (from 1.1%).
That marked the first time that factory orders have increased in back-to-back months since June-July 2014.
Shipments also increased for the second straight month, rising 0.5% after increasing 0.3% in March.
Shipments of nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft -- a metric used in the GDP computation -- increased 0.4% after a downwardly revised 0.0% reading for March (from +0.5%).
Orders for durable goods jumped 3.4%, bolstered by a 65.3% increase in orders for nondefense aircraft and parts. Orders for nondurable goods increased 0.4%.
Total inventories for all manufacturing industries decreased 0.1% while the inventories-to-shipments ratio dipped to 1.36 from 1.37.
The Non-Manufacturing ISM Report on Business (aka The ISM Services Index) checked in at 52.9% in May, down from 55.7% in April. The Briefing.com consensus estimate was pegged at 55.4%.
May marked the 76th straight month of expansion in the non-manufacturing sector.
However, the trend here will nonetheless qualify as a disappointment since it points to a slowdown in activity for the largest side of the U.S. economy.
The downturn in April was driven by a drop in the indexes for New Export Orders (from 56.5 to 49.0), New Orders (from 59.9 to 54.2), Employment (from 53.0 to 49.7), and the Backlog of Orders (from 51.5 to 50.0).
The only indexes showing increases from April were Prices (from 53.4 to 55.6) and Supplier Deliveries (from 51.0 to 52.5).

12:30 pm:

[BRIEFING.COM] The major averages have inched higher in recent action as the Nasdaq Composite (-0.6%) trails the S&P 500 (-0.4%) and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (-0.2%).

Six sectors trade in the red with heavyweight industrials (-0.2%), health care (-0.3%), and technology (-0.4%) showing the slimmest losses.

The economically-sensitive financial sector (-1.6%) demonstrates broad-based weakness as the group slides on fading prospects for an interest rate hike in the coming months. On that note, the fed funds futures market currently places the probability of an interest rate hike at the June and July meetings at a respective 6.0% and 37.0%. This compares to yesterday's estimates of 21.0% and 58.0%, respectively. Conversely, rate-sensitive real estate investment trusts (REITs) outperform as their yields appear attractive in a low interest rate environment. This also explains why utilities (+1.7%), telecom services (+0.6%), and consumer staples (+0.4%) are each seeing a bid today.

On the commodities front, WTI crude trades lower by 0.4% ($48.96/bbl), showing a weekly loss of 0.8% at this time. Elsewhere, gold has climbed 2.4% ($1,242.10/ozt) as the inflation hedge continues to outperform.

12:00 pm:

[BRIEFING.COM] The major indices have gained in recent action as the S&P 500 (-0.5%) underperforms the Dow Jones Industrial Average (-0.3%).

The consumer discretionary group (-0.7%) has pared larger losses and it now trades neck-and-neck with energy (-0.7%) and behind the influential technology (-0.5%) sector.

The health care space (-0.5%) trades in-line with the broader market while biotechnology underperforms the group. The iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 281.77, -4.51) has lost 1.6%, but sports a gain of 2.0% on a weekly basis. Elsewhere, Johnson & Johnson (JNJ 114.95, +0.46) outperforms, but has backed away from a fresh all-time high (115.39). The health care space has gained 1.4% this week, trailing only utilities (+1.7%; week-to-date 2.5%) over that time.

The Treasury complex continues to float near its session high as participants factor in a diminished probability of an interest rate hike in the short term. The yield on the 10-yr note has fallen nine basis points to 1.71% while the yield on the 2-yr note has ticked lower by seven basis points (0.77%).

11:30 am:

[BRIEFING.COM] The major averages have traded sideways since our last update as the Nasdaq Composite (-1.0%) trails the S&P 500 (-0.5%).

The leaderboard remains little changed with industrials (-0.4%), health care (-0.6%), and technology (-0.6%) showing the slimmest losses.

In the consumer discretionary space (-1.8%), media names demonstrate relative weakness with Viacom (VIAB 44.68, -0.41), CBS (CBS 54.38, -1.02), and Time Warner (TWX 75.27, -1.48) declining between 1.5% and 1.9%. Leisure names are also seeing pressure as Wynn Resorts (WYNN 96.97, -2.44) and Royal Caribbean (RCL 75.70, -1.93) outpace the losses in the broader sector. Conversely, Gap (GPS 18.93, +0.60) has gained 3.3% after reporting above-consensus May same-store sales figures. However, the broader SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT 42.39, -0.56) has lost 3.3%. The consumer discretionary sector has lost 1.6% this week, which leaves the group only ahead of financials (-2.1%; week-to-date -1.7%).

On the commodities front, WTI crude trades lower by 1.3% ($48.53/bbl) while gold has gained 2.5% ($1,243.30/ozt).

11:05 am:

[BRIEFING.COM] The stock market has climbed off its low as the S&P 500 (-0.6%) trades seven points off its worst level of the day.

Six sectors trade in the red with financials (-2.1%), consumer discretionary (-1.7%), energy (-0.6%), and health care (-0.6%) leading to the downside. Conversely, countercyclical utilities (+1.7%), consumer staples (+0.5%), and telecom services (+0.4%) top the board.

The Dow Jones Transportation Average (-0.9%) demonstrates relative weakness as airlines lag the index. In the group, Delta Air Lines (DAL 41.60, -0.85) and United Continental (UAL 44.16, -1.01) underperform after reports indicated that the two may bid on Avianca Holdings (AVH 6.01, +0.83). For the week, the Transportation Average shows a loss of 1.0% while the benchmark index has ticked down 0.3%.

The U.S. Dollar Index (94.12, -1.44) floats off its session low as the greenback makes up some ground against commodity currencies. The dollar remains down 1.0% against the Canadian dollar (1.2970) after ticking off the 1.2920 price level. Meanwhile, the dollar/yen pair trades lower by 1.8% at (106.90).

10:30 am: [BRIEFING.COM]

An unfavorable jobs number sends the dollar index sharply lower as metals surge, the dollar index is -1.5% around the 94.11 level
Non-farm payrolls increased by 38,000 (Briefing.com consensus 155,000)
Over the past three months, job gains have averaged 116,000
April nonfarm payrolls revised to 123,000 from 160,000
March nonfarm payrolls revised to 186,000 from 208,000
Commodities, as measured by the Bloomberg Commodity Index, are up +0.5% at 87.12
Crude oil trends lower and consolidates post-jobs number as yesterday's notable EIA data fades from memory
July crude oil futures are currently down $0.39 (-0.8%) at $48.79/barrel
Reminder: Members failed to reach an agreement to curtail production at the bi-annual OPEC meeting yesterday
Natural gas dips into negative territory, snapping its 4-day streak of gains in morning pit trading
July natural gas futures are down $0.01 (-0.3%) at $2.39/MMBtu
In precious metals, gold surges as the dollar plummets after a dissapointing jobs number
August gold futures are up $30.70 (+2.6%) at $1243.30/oz
Silver consolidates near its highs of the day, moving in tandem with gold as the dollar shows significant weakness
July silver futures are up $0.38 (+2.3%) at $16.40/oz
Base metal copper inches higher in morning pit trading
July copper futures are up $0.04 (+1.9%) at $2.11/lb

10:00 am:

[BRIEFING.COM] The Nasdaq Composite (-0.8%) trades behind the S&P 500 (-0.6%) and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (-0.6%).

Six sectors trade in the red with financials (-1.9%), consumer discretionary (-1.8%), health care (-0.8%), and industrials (-0.6%) leading the downside.

Just released, the ISM Services Index for May decreased to 52.9 from 55.7 while the Briefing.com consensus expected a reading of 55.4.

Separately, the Factory Orders Report for April showed an increase of 1.9%, which compares to the Briefing.com consensus of 1.6%. The March reading was revised to 1.7% (from 1.1%).

The U.S. Dollar Index (94.18, -1.38) hovers near its session low as the greenback sports losses against the euro and the yen. The euro/dollar pair has gained 1.5% (1.1324) while the dollar has lost 1.6% against the safe haven yen (107.15).

9:45 am:

[BRIEFING.COM] The stock market began its day on a lower note as the S&P 500 (-0.6%), the Dow Jones Industrial Average (-0.6%), and the Nasdaq Composite (-0.6%) trade lower in lockstep.

Five sectors trade in the red with financials (-1.9%) and consumer discretionary (-1.6%) leading to the downside. The remaining decliners sport losses between 0.3% (technology) and 0.6% (health care). On the flipside, countercyclical utilities (+1.2%) leads telecom services (+0.7%) and energy (+0.3%) in the front of the pack.

In the economically-sensitive financial sector (-1.9%), money center banks demonstrate relative weakness as the group moves lower following declining expectations of a fed funds rate hike in the short term. Bank of America (BAC 14.26, -0.68 -0.61) and Citigroup (C 44.79, -2.16) have lost 4.5% and 4.7%, respectively.

Conversely, miners and gold names demonstrate relative strength as the precious metal gain 2.3% ($1,241.00/ozt).

The Treasury complex continues to trade near its high as the yield on the 10-yr note slips nine basis points to 1.71%.

9:14 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -8.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -14.20.

The stock market is on track for a lower open with S&P 500 futures trading nine points below fair value. Futures fell to lows as investors evaluated a disappointing reading of the Employment Situation Report for May. The report showed weak headline growth (38K, Briefing.com consensus 155K) as well as below-consensus growth in nonfarm private payrolls (25k; Briefing.com consensus 160k). Unsurprisingly, the below-consensus readings shifted rate hike expectations with the fed funds futures market estimating the probability of a rate hike at the June meeting at 6.0%. This compares to yesterday's estimate of 21.0%.

Treasuries have rallied following the report as the yield on the 10-yr note slips nine basis points to 1.71%. Short-dated Treasuries also jumped on the news with the 2-yr note yield falling nine basis points to 0.77%. The yield on the 2-yr note rose ten basis points (to 0.88%) in May as expectations for a rate hike in the short term improved. The U.S. Dollar Index (94.29, -1.27) trades at a session low as the yen and euro each jump more than 1.3% against the greenback.

In company specific news, CST Brands (CST 44.08, -0.87) has slipped 1.9% after announcing the sale of 79 gas stations and convenience stores to 7-Eleven, Inc. The news would usually be a net positive, but the name rallied 18.2% yesterday on headlines that Alimentation Couche-Tard (ANCUF 44.23, +0.00) and Seven & I Holdings were mulling bids for the entire company. Elsewhere on the M&A front, NorthStar Asset Management (NSAM 13.03, +0.72), Colony Capital (CLNY 19.00, +0.64), and NorthStar Realty Finance (NRF 13.92, +0.44) confirmed that the three names would enter into an all-stock merger of equals. The combined entity will have $58 billion of assets under management.

Today's economic data will be topped off with Factory Orders for April (Briefing.com consensus +1.6%) and ISM Services for May (Briefing.com consensus 55.4), which will both cross the wires at 10:00 ET.

9:00 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -9.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -16.40.

Futures have ticked off a fresh low, responding to a disappointing reading of the Employment Situation Report for May. The S&P 500 futures trade nine points below fair value.

Asian markets ended the week on a generally higher note. Moody's commented on Japan's sales tax delay, saying the decision is a credit negative. Other rating agencies also voiced concern, but comments from Moody's were the most urgent. Meanwhile, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's chief cabinet secretary Yoshihide Suga said the government is keeping a close watch on the bond market.

In economic data:
China's May Caixin Services PMI 51.2 (expected 52.0; last 51.8)
Japan's Average Cash Earnings +0.3% year-over-year (consensus 0.9%; last 1.5%) and April Overtime Pay +1.0% year-over-year (last -0.2%)
Hong Kong's May Manufacturing PMI 47.2 (last 45.3)
Australia's May AIG Services Index 51.5 (last 49.7)
New Zealand's ANZ Commodity Price Index +1.0% month-over-month (last -0.8%)
India's May Nikkei Services PMI 51.0 (previous 53.7)

---Equity Markets---

Japan's Nikkei gained 0.5%, narrowing its weekly decline to 1.1%. Six sectors ended in the green with consumer discretionary (+1.8%), consumer staples (+1.4%), and energy (+0.4%) showing relative strength while utilities (-1.4%) and technology (-0.8%) lagged. Fast Retailing surged 6.9% while Komatsu, Kikkoman, Kubota, Japan Tobacco, and Sony gained between 1.6% and 3.5%.
Hong Kong's Hang Seng added 0.4%, ending the week higher by 1.8%. Lenovo Group, Li & Fung, and Henderson Land gained between 2.0% and 2.6% while financials Bank of East Asia, Bank of China, and HSBC advanced between 0.6% and 1.4%.
China's Shanghai Composite climbed 0.5% to extend its weekly gain to 4.2%. Shenzhen Kingdom Technology, Bright Dairy & Food, and Hundsun Technologies rallied between 5.6% and 7.0%.

Major European indices trade on a mixed note as the U.K.'s FTSE (+0.3%) outperforms. Regional bourses slipped lower after the release of a disappointing reading of the U.S. Employment Situation Report for May. Elsewhere, the Greek parliament passed another set of reforms required to unlock the next bailout tranche, but the country remains excluded from the European Central Bank's quantitative easing program until at least July.

In economic data:
Eurozone May Services PMI 53.3 (consensus 53.1; last 53.1). April Retail Sales 0.0% month-over-month (expected 0.3%; last -0.6%); +1.4% year-over-year (consensus 1.9%; last 1.8%)
Germany's May Services PMI 55.2, as expected (last 55.2)
France's May Services PMI 51.6 (consensus 51.8; last 51.8)
Italy's May Services PMI 49.8 (expected 51.5; 52.1)
Spain's May Services PMI 55.4 (consensus 53.5; last 55.1)

---Equity Markets---

France's CAC is lower by 0.5% with consumer names among the leaders. Accor, Carrefour, Louis Vuitton, and L'Oreal are up between 0.8% and 4.9% with Accor in the lead amid reports China's Jin Jiang will increase its stake in the hotel operator. On the downside, Publicis Groupe is down 2.2%.
Germany's DAX trades down 0.5% with utilities in the lead. RWE has jumped 6.1% and E.On is higher by 2.8%. Drug makers Bayer and Merck hold respective gains of 1.9% and 0.6%. Financials trade in the red with Deutsche Bank down 2.4% and Commerzbank lower by 1.5%.
UK's FTSE has gained 0.3% amid strength in mining names. Fresnillo, Glencore, BHP Billiton, and Anglo American are up between 2.8% and 4.3%. Bank shares slid with HSBC, Barclays, and RBS down between 0.5% and 1.0%.

8:35 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -6.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -9.60.

Equity futures fell to new session lows after a below-consensus reading of the May Employment Situation Report. The S&P 500 futures trade seven points below fair value.

May nonfarm payrolls came in at 38,000 while the Briefing.com consensus expected a reading of 155,000. The prior month's reading was revised lower to 123,000 (from 160,000). Nonfarm private payrolls added 25,000 while the consensus expected an increase of 160,000. The unemployment rate fell to 4.7% (Briefing.com consensus 4.9%).

Average hourly earnings increased 0.2%, which was in-line with the consensus. The average workweek was reported at 34.4, compared to the 34.5 called for by the consensus estimate.

Finally, the April trade balance showed a deficit of $37.4 billion while the Briefing.com consensus expected the deficit to come in at $41.6 billion. The previous month's deficit was revised to $35.5 billion from $40.4 billion.

8:05 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +1.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +1.10.

U.S. equity futures trade on a flat note with the S&P 500 futures hovering one point above fair value. Futures on the benchmark index traversed a narrow four-point range overnight as investors adopted a wait-and-see posture ahead of the influential Employment Situation Report for May. The Briefing.com consensus expects nonfarm payrolls to increase by 155k while it also expects the unemployment rate to come in at 4.9%. Participants will use the reading to gauge the probability of a potential fed funds rate hike in the coming months. For its part, WTI crude trades lower by 0.4% ($48.96/bbl).

The Treasury complex trades on a mixed note with the yield on the 10-yr note unchanged at 1.80%.

On the economic front, data will include the Employment Situation Report for May (Briefing.com consensus 155k) and the April Trade Balance (Briefing.com consensus -$41.6 billion), which will both cross the wires at 8:30 ET. Meanwhile, Factory Orders for April (Briefing.com consensus +1.6%) and ISM Services for May (Briefing.com consensus 55.4) will be released at 10:00 ET.

In U.S. corporate news of note:

Talen Energy (TLN 13.75, +1.81): +15.2% after announcing that the company would be acquired by Riverstone for $14 per share or approximately $5.2 billion
Gap (GPS 19.05, +0.72): +3.9% following the company reporting better-than-feared May same store sales
GoPro (GPRO 11.02, +0.30): +2.8% after supplier Ambarella (AMBA 46.50, +4.02) posted above-consensus quarterly results
Ambarella (AMBA 46.50, +4.02): +9.5% following the company topping analysts' estimates for the quarter and announcing a $75 million share repurchase program
Broadcom (AVGO 166.98, +12.07): +7.8% after reporting a bottom-line beat on in-line revenue for the second quarter

Reviewing overnight developments:

Asia-Pacific markets ended the week on a higher note with Japan's Nikkei +0.5%, China's Shanghai Composite +0.5%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng +0.4%.
In economic data:
China's May Caixin Services PMI 51.2 (expected 52.0; last 51.8)
Japan's Average Cash Earnings +0.3% year-over-year (consensus 0.9%; last 1.5%) and April Overtime Pay +1.0% year-over-year (last -0.2%)
Hong Kong's May Manufacturing PMI 47.2 (last 45.3)
Australia's May AIG Services Index 51.5 (last 49.7)
New Zealand's ANZ Commodity Price Index +1.0% month-over-month (last -0.8%)
India's May Nikkei Services PMI 51.0 (previous 53.7)
In news:
Moody's commented on Japan's sales tax delay, saying the decision is a credit negative.
Other rating agencies also voiced concern, but comments from Moody's were the most urgent.
Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's chief cabinet secretary Yoshihide Suga said the government is keeping a close watch on the bond market.

European indices trade higher with the U.K.'s FTSE +1.0%, Germany's DAX +0.6%, and France's CAC +0.6%.
In economic data:
Eurozone May Services PMI 53.3 (consensus 53.1; last 53.1). April Retail Sales 0.0% month-over-month (expected 0.3%; last -0.6%); +1.4% year-over-year (consensus 1.9%; last 1.8%)
Germany's May Services PMI 55.2, as expected (last 55.2)
France's May Services PMI 51.6 (consensus 51.8; last 51.8)
Italy's May Services PMI 49.8 (expected 51.5; 52.1)
Spain's May Services PMI 55.4 (consensus 53.5; last 55.1)
In news:
The Greek parliament passed another set of reforms required to unlock the next bailout tranche.
However, the country remains excluded from the European Central Bank's quantitative easing program until at least July.

5:56 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -0.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -1.30.

5:56 am: [BRIEFING.COM] Nikkei...16642...+79.70...+0.50%. Hang Seng...20947...+88.00...+0.40%.

5:56 am: [BRIEFING.COM] FTSE...6236.87...+51.30...+0.80%. DAX...10249.53...+41.50...+0.40%.

Special thanks to Bloomberg, Briefing, Reuters and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader Image@ http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader

http://www.thestrategylab.com
Phone: +1 708 572-4885
Business Hours: 8am - 5pm est (Mon - Fri)
Skype Messenger: kebec2002
wrbanalysis@gmail.com


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