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 Post subject: May 17th Tuesday Trade Results - Profit $1375.00
PostPosted: Wed May 18, 2016 5:54 am 
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Joined: Sat Jan 10, 2009 2:06 pm
Posts: 4335
Location: Canada
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Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
Phone: +1 708 572-4885
Free Chat Room: http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=164
Archive Real-Time Chat Logs (timestamp, entries/exits, position size): http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewforum.php?f=20
Business Hours: 8am - 5pm est (Mon - Fri)
wrbanalysis@gmail.com (24/7)
http://twitter.com/wrbtrader (24/7)

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click on the above image to view today's performance verification

Price Action Trade Performance for Today: Emini TF ($TF_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.00 points, Emini ES ($ES_F) futures @ $1375.00 dollars or +27.50 points, Light Crude Oil CL ($CL_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.00 points, Gold GC ($GC_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.00 points and EuroFX 6E ($6E_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.0000 ticks. Total Profit @ $1375.00 dollars

Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures: 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures: 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup
Light Crude Oil CL (WTI) Futures: 1 tick or 0.01 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup
Gold GC Futures: 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup
EuroFX 6E Futures: 1 tick or 0.0001 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup

Trade Log: All of my live trades are posted real-time in the timestamp ##TheStrategyLab free chat room. The live trade is posted 3.2 seconds on average after the trade confirmation via an auto script. You can read today's price action trading information about my trades (e.g. time, price entry, contract size, price exit) as the trade traversed to its completion. Also, sometimes I'll post real-time trading tips in the free ##TheStrategyLab chat room involving WRBs, WRB Hidden GAPs, Key Market Events (KME), Tutorial Chapters 2 & 3, WRB Zones, Reaction Highs/Lows, Contracting Volatility or Expanding Volatility. Its all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=156&t=2362

The free chat room is not a signal calling chat room. I do not mentor (never have) and there's no education in the free chat room although I occasionally give real-time WRB Analysis. Yet, members are allowed to ask questions. The free chat room is on IRC via users request but I also use two other different communication software (e.g. Skype) for other users that do not like IRC simple text format.

Quote:
All of my real-time posted trades involves price action concepts from the WRB Analysis free study guide, Advance WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 4 - 12 and the Volatility Trading Report (VTR) trade signal strategies. Analysis -----> Trade Signals

Also, posted below are direct links to information about my price action trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis). I'm primarily a day trader because it suits my personal lifestyle but I do occasionally swing trade and position trade. Simply, my trade method is applicable for position trading, swing trading and day trading.

Image ##TheStrategyLab Chat Room is free. Members and I use the chat room to post WRB Analysis commentary, real-time trades and to post anything else related to trading. The chat room helps me tremendously in my own trading because I use it to document (journal) general volatility analysis involving WRB Analysis so that I can easily review at a later date my thoughts as I interacted with the markets...info I can not get from my broker statements. Also, this is not a signal calling chat room where a head trader tells you when to buy or sell and I do not have the time/energy/resources to manage a signal calling chat room. Access instructions for chat room @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=164

Image Price Action Analysis via Advance WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=119&t=718

Analysis -----> Trade Signals

Image Trade Signal Strategies via Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our price action trade strategies with support (answering your questions) prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR). All WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1 - 12 are included in the purchase of the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Image Daily Trading Plan Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=291&t=3143 contains brief information about trading plan, market context, brokers, trading time frames, position size management and other discussions.

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Market Context Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, Briefing, Reuters and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED/ECB/BOE/IMF actions or any important global economic events (e.g. Eurozone, MarketWatch.com) that had an impact on today's price action in many trading instruments I monitor during the trading day. Simply, I'm a strong believer that key market events causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility resulting in trade opportunities (swing points and strong continuation price actions) that reach profit targets. Thus, I pay attention to these key market events, intermarket analysis (e.g. Forex EurUsd, EuroFX 6E futures, Gold GC futures, Light Crude Oil (WTI) CL & Brent Oil futures, Eurex DAX futures, Euronext FTSE100 futures, Emini ES futures, Emini TF futures, Treasury ZB futures and U.S. Dollar Index futures) while using WRB Analysis from one trade to the next trade to give me the market context for price action trading before the appearance of my technical analysis trade signals. Therefore, I maintain these archives to allow me to understand what was happening on any given trading day in the past involving key market events to help better understand my trade decisions (day trading, swing trading, position trading)...something I can not get from my broker statements alone. Further, most financial websites remove (delete) their archives after a few years to make room for new content. Therefore, I maintain my own archives of the news content so that I have it available for me when financial websites no longer archives their content.

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click on the above image to view today's price action of key markets


4:20 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The major averages ended Tuesday on a lower note, erasing yesterday's gains. Today's trade featured a hotter-than-expected reading of April CPI (+0.4%; Briefing.com consensus +0.3%), hawkish commentary from FOMC members, a breach of the 50-day simple moving average (2056.90) in the S&P 500 (-0.9%), and the underperformance of consumer discretionary (-1.2%), health care (-1.1%), and technology (-1.1%). The Nasdaq Composite (-1.3%) ended behind both the Dow Jones Industrial Average (-1.0%) and the benchmark index (-0.9%).

Today's session began on a lower note as investors looked to the possible rate hike implications stemming from a hotter-than-expected reading of inflation in April. Meanwhile, Home Depot (HD 132.00, -3.34) came under pressure despite reporting above-consensus quarterly results. Additionally, the market maintained a negative bias after disclosures that George Soros placed bearish bets on the broader market by doubling his put position on the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY 204.85, -1.92) and boosting his holdings in gold.

The S&P 500 (-0.9%) tested and briefly defended support near its 50-day simple moving average (2056.90) in the late morning, but was unable to do so again when that level was re-tested in the afternoon. As a result, the major averages extended their losses through the final hour. Nine sectors ended in the red with consumer staples (-1.9%), utilities (-1.7%), consumer discretionary (-1.2%), and health care (-1.1%) rounding out the leaderboard.

In the consumer staples sector (-1.9%), Kraft Heinz (KHC 82.16, -3.71) displayed relative weakness, losing 4.3%. Meanwhile, Hormel Foods (HRL 38.80, -1.44) ended lower by 3.6% ahead of tomorrow morning's earnings report. The broader sector trimmed its May gain to 0.3%, trailing only technology (-1.1%; month-to-date +0.4%) over that time.

Drug manufacturers displayed relative weakness in the health care space (-1.1%) as the sub-group moved lower in sympathy with AbbVie (ABBV 60.25, -2.20). The company fell 3.5% after receiving a negative ruling regarding its patent on a dosing regimen involving its rheumatoid arthritis medication. Conversely, Valeant Pharmaceuticals (VRX 29.08, +2.03) gained 7.5% after Citron's Andrew Left confirmed that he has opened a long position in the stock.

In the consumer discretionary space (-1.2%), Home Depot declined 2.5% despite topping analysts' estimates for the quarter. Fellow home improvement name Lowe's (LOW 76.07, -0.93) slipped 1.2% ahead of tomorrow morning's quarterly report.

Interest rate-sensitive real estate investment trusts (REITs) underperformed in the financial sector (-0.7%). The sub-group was pressured by the hotter-than-expected CPI reading and hawkish commentary from FOMC members. San Francisco Fed President Williams, Atlanta Fed President Lockhart, and Dallas Fed President Kaplan each said that an interest rate hike may be warranted sooner than the market currently anticipates one. For the June Fed meeting, the likelihood of a rate increase, as measured by the fed funds futures market, jumped to 15.0% from yesterday's 3.8% estimate.

The U.S. Dollar Index (94.52, -0.01) ended slightly lower as the euro and the yen ended flat against the greenback. The dollar/yen pair finished higher by 0.1% at 109.09 while the euro ended at 1.1316 against the dollar. Separately, pound sterling gained 0.4% against the dollar (1.4462).

The Treasury complex ended on a mixed note with the yield on the 10-yr note ending higher by one basis point at 1.76%.

Today's participation was above the recent averages as more than 1.02 billion shares changed hands on the NYSE floor.

Today's economic data included April Core CPI, April Housing Starts, April Building Permits, April Industrial Production, and April Capacity Utilization:

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April produced a headline surprise, with total CPI rising 0.4% month-over-month (Briefing.com consensus +0.3%) and core CPI, which excludes food and energy, increasing 0.2% as expected.
The seasonally adjusted all items increase was broad-based, with the indexes for food, energy, and all items less food and energy rising in April.
The move, though, was powered by a 3.4% increase in the index for energy, which featured an 8.1% jump in the gasoline index.
A 0.3% increase in the shelter index and a 0.3% increase in the medical care services index were big drivers of the 0.2% increase in core CPI; however, those increases were mitigated somewhat by a 0.3% decline in the indexes for new vehicles, used cars and trucks, and apparel.
Over the last 12 months, CPI is up 1.1% on an unadjusted basis versus 0.9% in March. Core CPI is up 2.1% versus a 2.2% increase seen in March.
It's possible the Fed could use the uptrend in CPI as a basis for raising the fed funds rate in June, although we suspect the fed funds futures market still isn't going to be buying into that notion.
Housing starts increased 6.6% month-over-month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.172 million units (Briefing.com consensus 1.135 mln). The starts rate for March was revised up to 1.099 million from 1.089 million.
Building permits increased 3.6% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.116 million (Briefing.com consensus 1.130 mln). Permits for March were revised down to 1.077 million from 1.086 million.
Total housing starts are 1.7% below the April 2015 rate while total building permits are 5.3% below the April 2015 estimate.
Single-family starts increased 3.3% in April to 778,000, led by a 12.8% gain in the Midwest and a 9.0% increase in the South. Both the Northeast (-1.8%) and the West (-14.1%) saw a drop in single-family starts.
The rise in permits was driven by an 8.0% increase in permits for multi-family units, although permits for single-family units increased 1.5%.
The number of homes under construction increased to 999,000 from 994,000 in March. This will be a positive input for Q2 GDP forecasts.
After a string of largely disappointing data, the Industrial Production report for April proved to be a positive surprise as production increased at a faster than expected rate of 0.7% (Briefing.com consensus 0.2%).
Capacity utilization also surprised to the upside, coming in at 75.4% (Briefing.com consensus 75.0%).
The April reading represented the first increase in three months while the previous month's reading was revised down to -0.9% from -0.6%. On a year-over-year basis, industrial production is down 1.1%.
Most notably, the utilities index spiked 5.8% while the final products index increased 1.0% on the back of a 1.2% growth in consumer goods.
The only category that registered a decline in April was mining. The mining index fell 2.3% and is now down 13.4% year-over-year. The decline in mining was not enough to offset the spike in utilities, leading to a 0.3% uptick in manufacturing output.
Looking at capacity utilization, total industry capacity grew 1.0% year-over-year with utilities showing the largest sequential increase (up 420 basis points to 78.6%). Mining capacity utilization declined to 72.5% from 74.0%, which represents a new record low.

Tomorrow's economic data will be limited to the 7:00 ET release of the weekly MBA Mortgage Index; however, the the Federal Open Market Committee will release the minutes from the April 27 meeting at 14:00 ET.

Nasdaq Composite -5.8% YTD
Russell 2000 -3.0% YTD
S&P 500 +0.2% YTD
Dow Jones +0.6% YTD

3:30 pm: [BRIEFING.COM]

The dollar index declines in afternoon pit trading, currently down -0.1% around the 94.53 level
Commodities, as measured by the Bloomberg Commodity Index, are up +0.7% at 85.72
Crude oil sees an afternoon spike ahead of today's scheduled API data to be released after the bell, closing at a 2016 high
June crude oil futures rose $0.58 (+1.2%) to $48.30/barrel
Contributing factors to the rally in oil include:
Goldman Sachs made bullish comments about WTI crude, suggesting the oil market has gone to a supply deficit situation
Nigerian supply concerns after Nigerian output has been curtailed substantially on unrest there
Venezuelan oil production concerns amid political instability in the region
Oil investor T. Boone Pickens believes supply & demand are now balanced, expects $50-$60/barrel oil prices as early as 2 months from now
API inventory data is scheduled to be released today after the bell
Weekly EIA petroleum inventory data is scheduled to be released tomorrow at 10:30 am ET
The next OPEC meeting is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2016
Natural gas trends lower in the afternoon after an initial morning spike, recovering near the close and ending in the green
June natural gas closed $0.02 higher (+1.0%) at $2.05/MMBtu
EIA natural gas data is scheduled to be released this Thursday at 10:30 am ET
In precious metals, gold sees an afternoon of consolidation and stages a brief rally near the close of pit trading
June gold ended today's session up $2.00 (+0.2%) to $1276.60/oz
Silver trades sideways in the afternoon after opening higher in morning pit trading
July silver closed today's session $0.09 higher (+0.5%) at $17.24/oz
Base metal copper ends pit trading unchanged for the day
July copper closed flat at $2.09/lb

3:00 pm:

[BRIEFING.COM] As the stock market enters its final hour of trade, the major indices float off their lows with the S&P 500 (-1.0%) hovering five points above its session low. The benchmark index now trades flat for the week.

Nine sectors trade in the red with utilities (-1.9%) and consumer staples (-1.9%) leading to the downside. The remaining sectors sport losses between 0.3% (materials) and 1.4% (health care). Two sectors remain above their flat lines in May with technology (-1.2%; month-to-date +0.3%) and consumer staples (-1.9%; month-to-date +0.3%) trading neck-and-neck over that period.

The 1.0% decline in the benchmark index has had corresponded with a 7.8% increase in CBOE Volatility Index (VIX 15.83, +1.15) as investors seek volatility protection.

The U.S. Dollar Index (94.54, +0.01) hovers narrowly above its flat line as the greenback trades little changed against the euro and the yen. The euro/dollar pair trades higher by 0.1% (1.1316) while the dollar/yen pair also trades higher by 0.1% at 109.12.

2:35 pm:

[BRIEFING.COM] The major averages trade near new session lows as the Nasdaq Composite (-1.3%) trails the Dow Jones Industrial Average (-1.2%) and the S&P 500 (-1.1%).

Nine sectors trade beneath their flat lines with materials (-0.3%), industrials (-0.7%), financials (-0.8%) and telecom services (-0.8%) sporting the slimmest losses.

In the financial sector (-0.8%) interest rate-sensitive real estate investment trusts (REITs) demonstrate relative weakness. The sub-group underperforms following the hotter-than-expected reading of April CPI (+0.4%; Briefing.com consensus +0.3%) and recent hawkish commentary from Fed officials. On that note, the fed funds futures market currently estimates the odds of an interest rate hike at the June 15 meeting at 18.8%, compared to yesterday's estimate of 3.8%. Separately, U.S. Bancorp (USB 40.68, -1.01) has lost 2.4% after reaffirming its second-quarter guidance.

On the commodities front, WTI crude trades higher by 0.8% ($48.10/bbl) ahead of its pit session close at 14:30 ET. Meanwhile, gold ended its day higher by 0.2% at $1,276.60/ozt.

2:00 pm:

[BRIEFING.COM] The major averages trade at fresh session lows with the Nasdaq Composite (-0.8%) trading behind the S&P 500 (-0.7%).

Eight sectors trade in the red with countercyclical utilities (-1.8%), consumer staples (-1.7%), health care (-1.0%) rounding out the leaderboard.

In the technology space (-0.8%), Microsoft (MSFT 50.64, -0.83) displays relative weakness, declining 1.6% today. Elsewhere, data storage names outperform with Seagate Technology (STX 19.84, +0.68) and Western Digital (WDC 37.20, +1.63) gaining 3.6% and 4.6%, respectively. However, the two names remain down a respective 45.9% and 38.1% for 2016. The broader technology sector (-0.8%; month-to-date +0.7%) sports the largest gain in May.

On the central bank front, both San Francisco Fed President Williams and Atlanta Fed President Lockhart struck a hawkish tone today as the two FOMC non-voters voiced their belief that June is a "live" meeting. Tomorrow markets will receive more insight from the Fed when the April policy meeting minutes are released at 14:00 ET.

1:35 pm:

[BRIEFING.COM] The major U.S. indices have ticked higher since our previous update, but still show notable losses in today's session.

A look inside the Dow Jones Industrial Average shows that Home Depot (HD 132.76, -2.58), Microsoft (MSFT 50.79, -0.68), and Coca-Cola (KO 45.03, -0.59) are underperforming. Home Depot is trading lower despite reporting strong earnings earlier this morning. The do-it-yourself retailer delivered an across the board beat, surpassing top and bottom line analyst estimates, and also boosted its fiscal year outlook.

Conversely, Caterpillar (CAT 71.72, +1.02) is the best-performing Dow component as industrials outperform.

Despite today's pullback, the DJIA is still up 0.5% this week following yesterday's rally.

1:10 pm:

[BRIEFING.COM] The stock market trades on a lower note at midday as investors digest a hotter-than-expected reading of April CPI (+0.4%; Briefing.com consensus +0.3%), an uptick in crude oil, a rebound in the Dow Jones Transportation Average (+1.2%), and the underperformance of the heavyweight health care (-0.9%) and technology (-0.6%) spaces. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (-0.6%) trades in-line with the S&P 500 (-0.6%) and the Nasdaq Composite (-0.6%).

The major averages began the day on a lower note as investors received a hotter-than-expected reading of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April. The data showed that in April CPI increased 0.4%, pushing the year-over-year increase to 1.1%. Futures moved lower following the datapoint as investors looked to the implications this may have on the Fed's decision to continue raising rates. The likelihood of a rate increase, as measured by the fed funds futures market, briefly jumped to 11.3% before falling to 7.5%.

The broader market rebounded off its opening low as the S&P 500 (-0.6%) temporarily found its footing near its 50-day simple moving average (2057.18). The averages were helped off their lows as oil extended its gain while heavily-weighted technology (-0.6%) and health care (-0.9%) trimmed steeper losses. Currently, WTI crude trades higher by 0.5% at $47.95/bbl.

Equity indices have recently stumbled to fresh session lows with utilities (-1.6%), consumer staples (-1.5%), and health care (-0.9%) sporting the largest losses. Conversely, commodity-sensitive energy (+0.5%) and materials (+0.3%) lead industrials (UNCH).

The consumer staples space (-1.5%) is experiencing broad-based weakness as the group trims its May gain to 0.7%. In the group, Walgreens Boot Alliance (WBA 77.43, -1.44) has lost 1.8% after reports indicated that Goldman Sachs sold six million shares of the stock at a 1.5% discount. Elsewhere, Hormel Foods (HRL 38.94, -1.30) trades lower by 3.2% ahead of the company's quarterly report, which will be released tomorrow morning.

In the health care group (-0.9%), AbbVie (ABBV 59.85, -2.59) underperforms after headlines indicated that Coherus BioSciences (CHRS 18.73, +2.46) received a favorable ruling from the Patent Trial and Appeal Board. Coherus' challenge is against an AbbVie patent regarding dosing regiments for its rheumatoid arthritis medication. Elsewhere, biotechnology narrowly outperforms the broader sector, evidenced by the 0.7% loss in the iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 259.88, -1.79).

Retail names continue to see pressure in the consumer discretionary space (-0.4%). Additionally, Home Depot (HD 132.99, -2.35) has lost 1.7% after beating analysts' estimates for the first quarter. Lowe's (LOW 76.28, -0.72) trades lower in sympathy with the name and ahead of its quarterly report, which will be released tomorrow morning.

The Dow Jones Transportation Average (+1.2%) outperforms thanks to broad-based strength from rail companies and airlines. Kansas City Southern (KSU 90.59, +1.86) has gained 2.1% after presenting at a transportation conference held by Bank of America/Merrill Lynch. Elsewhere, United Continental (UAL 45.62, +1.03) and American Airlines (AAL 32.97, +0.85) have gained 2.3% and 1.7%, respectively.

The U.S. Dollar Index (94.44, -0.09) trades modestly lower as the euro extends its gain over the greenback. The euro has gained 0.1% against the dollar (1.1328) while the dollar/yen pair trades higher by 0.1% at 109.05.

The Treasury complex trades on a mixed note with the yield on the 10-yr note slipping one basis point to 1.74%.

Today's economic data included April Core CPI, April Housing Starts, April Building Permits, April Industrial Production, and April Capacity Utilization:

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April produced a headline surprise, with total CPI rising 0.4% month-over-month (Briefing.com consensus +0.3%) and core CPI, which excludes food and energy, increasing 0.2% as expected.
The seasonally adjusted all items increase was broad-based, with the indexes for food, energy, and all items less food and energy rising in April.
The move, though, was powered by a 3.4% increase in the index for energy, which featured an 8.1% jump in the gasoline index.
A 0.3% increase in the shelter index and a 0.3% increase in the medical care services index were big drivers of the 0.2% increase in core CPI; however, those increases were mitigated somewhat by a 0.3% decline in the indexes for new vehicles, used cars and trucks, and apparel.
Over the last 12 months, CPI is up 1.1% on an unadjusted basis versus 0.9% in March. Core CPI is up 2.1% versus a 2.2% increase seen in March.
It's possible the Fed could use the uptrend in CPI as a basis for raising the fed funds rate in June, although we suspect the fed funds futures market still isn't going to be buying into that notion.
Housing starts increased 6.6% month-over-month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.172 million units (Briefing.com consensus 1.135 mln). The starts rate for March was revised up to 1.099 million from 1.089 million.
Building permits increased 3.6% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.116 million (Briefing.com consensus 1.130 mln). Permits for March were revised down to 1.077 million from 1.086 million.
Total housing starts are 1.7% below the April 2015 rate while total building permits are 5.3% below the April 2015 estimate.
Single-family starts increased 3.3% in April to 778,000, led by a 12.8% gain in the Midwest and a 9.0% increase in the South. Both the Northeast (-1.8%) and the West (-14.1%) saw a drop in single-family starts.
The rise in permits was driven by an 8.0% increase in permits for multi-family units, although permits for single-family units increased 1.5%.
The number of homes under construction increased to 999,000 from 994,000 in March. This will be a positive input for Q2 GDP forecasts.
After a string of largely disappointing data, the Industrial Production report for April proved to be a positive surprise as production increased at a faster than expected rate of 0.7% (Briefing.com consensus 0.2%).
Capacity utilization also surprised to the upside, coming in at 75.4% (Briefing.com consensus 75.0%).
The April reading represented the first increase in three months while the previous month's reading was revised down to -0.9% from -0.6%. On a year-over-year basis, industrial production is down 1.1%.
Most notably, the utilities index spiked 5.8% while the final products index increased 1.0% on the back of a 1.2% growth in consumer goods.
The only category that registered a decline in April was mining. The mining index fell 2.3% and is now down 13.4% year-over-year. The decline in mining was not enough to offset the spike in utilities, leading to a 0.3% uptick in manufacturing output.
Looking at capacity utilization, total industry capacity grew 1.0% year-over-year with utilities showing the largest sequential increase (up 420 basis points to 78.6%). Mining capacity utilization declined to 72.5% from 74.0%, which represents a new record low.

12:30 pm:

[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (-0.5%) has moved back in the area of its 50-day simple moving average (2057.68) as the broader market extends its losses.

The industrial sector (+0.1%) has trimmed its gain as it remains behind materials (+0.6%) and energy (+0.7%).

In the consumer discretionary space (-0.4%), Home Depot (HD 133.26, -2.08) trades lower by 1.5% despite reporting stronger-than-expected first-quarter results. Lowe's (LOW 76.51, -0.50) has fallen 0.7% in sympathy with the name and ahead of its quarterly report tomorrow morning. Elsewhere, the broader retail sub-group continues to see pressure as the SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT 41.05, -0.32) loses 0.8%. Separately, Viacom (VIAB 40.12, +0.79) recently announced a partnership with American Express (AXP 63.55, -0.52) involving targeted television ads that will use American Express' data capabilities. The broader sector has trimmed its weekly gain to 0.3%, but continues to show an uptick of 0.1% in 2016.

The U.S. Dollar Index (94.34, -0.19) trades lower as the yen and the euro extend their gains over the greenback. The dollar/yen pair trades lower by 0.1% (108.98) while the euro has gained 0.2% against the dollar (1.1339).

12:00 pm:

[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P (-0.2%) trades in-line with the Nasdaq Composite (-0.2%) as the major averages continue to move off their lows.

The heavily-weighted consumer discretionary space (UNCH) flirts with its flat line as it leads telecom services (-0.2%), technology (-0.3%), and health care (-0.6%).

The Dow Jones Transportation Average (+1.9%) demonstrates relative strength as airlines and rail names help lead the index higher. American Airlines (AAL 33.02, +0.90) recently presented at a Bank of America/Merrill Lynch conference where the company defended its share repurchase strategy and argued that its current price-to-earnings multiple was sustainable. In the rail sub-group, CSX (CSX 25.80, +0.57) has gained 2.2% after lowering its second-quarter volume guidance to -9.0%, compared to -5.0% in the first quarter. Elsewhere, Kansas City Southern (KSU 90.89, +2.16) has gained 2.4% after announcing that its second-quarter volume likely declined by 2.0%. The broader transportation index has trimmed its May decline to 2.1%, compared to a loss of 0.1% in the benchmark index.

11:30 am:

[BRIEFING.COM] The stock market has ticked lower since the last update as the Dow Jones Industrial Average (-0.4%) trades behind the S&P 500 (-0.4%).

Three sectors trade in the green with the heavyweight industrial (+0.4%) sector following commodity-sensitive energy (+0.7%) and materials (+0.7%).

The consumer staples space (-1.3%) demonstrates broad-based weakness as it trims its May gain to 0.9%. The broader sector trades behind only technology (-0.5%; month-to-date +1.0%) over that period. In the sector, beverage names underperform with heavyweight PepsiCo (PEP 102.57, -1.56) and Coca-Cola (KO 44.96, -0.66) losing 1.5% apiece. Meanwhile, Hormel Foods (HRL 39.31, 0.93) has lost 2.4% ahead of tomorrow morning's earnings report. Staples retailer Wal-Mart (WMT 65.45, -0.57) trades lower by 0.8% ahead of its earnings report, which will be released ahead of Thursday's open.

On the commodities front, WTI crude continues to float below its session high ($48.42/bbl) as its pulls back to the $48.24/bbl price level (+1.1%).

11:00 am:

[BRIEFING.COM] The major averages have moved off their lows as the Nasdaq Composite (-0.2%) trades in-line with the S&P 500 (-0.2%). The benchmark index trades seven points off its session low.

Six sectors trade in the red with countercyclical consumer staples (-1.3%), utilities (-0.9%), and health care (-0.6%) leading to the downside.

In the health care space (-0.6%), large cap component AbbVie (ABBV 60.05, -2.40) demonstrates relative weakness after stumbling 6.3% out of the gate. The leg lower followed news that Coherus BioSciences (CHRS 18.66, +2.39) received a favorable ruling from the Patent Trial and Appeal Board. Coherus is challenging Abbvie's patent regarding dosing regiments for its rheumatoid arthritis medication. Elsewhere, biotechnology trades ahead of the broader sector, evidenced by the 0.2% loss in the iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 261.10, -0.57).

On the commodities front, WTI crude trades higher by 1.0% ($48.22/bbl) while gold has gained 0.7% ($1,282.60/ozt).

The Treasury complex trades on a mixed note with the yield on the 10-yr note slipping one basis point to 1.74%.

10:30 am: [BRIEFING.COM]

The dollar index falls to a fresh low of the day, down -0.2% at the 94.42 level, boosting commodities
Commodities, as measured by the Bloomberg Commodity Index, are up +0.6% at 85.61
Crude oil extends yeterday's notable gains ahead of API data, surging to fresh new 7-month highs in morning pit trading
June crude oil futures are up $0.28 (+0.6%) around $48.00/barrel
Contributing factors to the rise in oil include:
Goldman Sachs made bullish comments about WTI crude, suggesting the oil market has gone to a supply deficit situation
Nigerian supply concerns after Nigerian output has been curtailed substantially on unrest there
Venezuelan oil production concerns amid political instability in the region
Oil investor T. Boone Pickens believes supply & demand are now balanced, expects $50-$60/barrel oil prices as early as 2 months from now
API inventory data is scheduled to be released today after the bell
Weekly EIA petroleum inventory data is scheduled to be released tomorrow at 10:30 am ET
The next OPEC meeting is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2016
Natural gas snaps its 3-day losing streak,briefly spiking above $2.08/MMBtu before pulling back
June natural gas futures are currently up $0.03 (+1.6%) at $2.06/MMBtu
In precious metals, gold rallies to fresh new highs of the day as the dollar weakens
June gold futures are currently up $5.30 (+0.4%) at $1279.60/oz
Silver moves in tandem with gold in morning pit trading, spiking above the previous session's close
July silver futures are up $0.10 (+0.6%) at $17.25/oz
Base metal copper extends yesterday's losses, trading lower despite dollar weakness
July copper futures are down $0.01 (-0.6%) at $2.08/lb

10:00 am:

[BRIEFING.COM] The stock market has inched higher since the last update as the S&P 500 (-0.3%) trades three points off its session low.

The commodity-sensitive energy (+0.4%) sector trades neck-and-neck with materials (+0.4%) and industrials (+0.4%). Conversely, countercyclical consumer staples (-1.0%) and health care (-0.9%) show the largest losses.

In materials (+0.4%), Freeport-McMoRan (FCX 11.56, +0.52) has gained 4.7% after receiving an upgrade at Jefferies to "Buy" from "Hold". Elsewhere in the group, Monsanto (MON 100.29, +2.01) has gained 2.0%.

The U.S. Dollar Index (94.41, -0.12) has slipped lower as the euro and the yen trim their losses against the greenback. The dollar/yen pair trades flat at 109.00 while the euro has gained 0.2% against the dollar (1.1338).

9:50 am:

[BRIEFING.COM] The stock market began its day on a lower note with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (-0.4%) trailing the S&P 500 (-0.3%) and the Nasdaq Composite (-0.3%).

Nine sectors trade in the red with consumer staples (-0.6%) and utilities (-0.5%) sporting the largest losses. The remaining decliners show losses between 0.1% (industrials) and 0.5% (financials). Meanwhile, telecom services (UNCH) flirts with its flat line.

The Dow Jones Transportation Average (+0.5%) demonstrates relative strength as airline names outperform. United Continental (UAL 45.05, +0.46) and American Airlines (AAL 32.53, +0.40) have gained 1.0% to 1.3%, respectively.

In the consumer discretionary space (-0.5%) home improvement stores underperform as Home Depot (HD 131.88, -3.44) slips 2.6%. The name beat estimates for the quarter and raised FY17 earnings estimates.

On the commodities front, WTI crude trades higher by 0.2% ($47.80/bbl) while gold has gained 0.1% to trade at $1,276.00/ozt.

9:19 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -4.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -5.90.

The stock market is on track for a lower open as the S&P 500 futures trade four points below fair value. Futures slipped to their worst levels this morning as investors ruminated over a faster-than-expected reading of April CPI (+0.4%; Briefing.com consensus +0.3%). On a year-over-year basis total CPI has increased 1.1% while core CPI is up 2.1% over that time. Today's reading may bolster the case for the Fed to raise interest rates faster than the market currently expects. On that note, the probability of an interest rate hike at the June FOMC meeting increased from 3.8% yesterday to 11.3% today.

The U.S. Dollar Index (94.58, +0.05) trades slightly higher after the news as the greenback gains against the euro and the yen. The euro/dollar pair trades lower by 0.1% (1.1315) while the dollar has gained 0.2% against the yen (109.28).

Another factor impacting today's negative bias was a recently reported 13F filing from George Soros. The report showed that the fund manager doubled his bearish position in the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) to 2.1 million shares and increased positioning in gold.

In company specific news, TJX (TJX 78.20, +3.01) trades higher by 4.0% after reporting above-consensus results for the first quarter. The company lowered its second quarter earnings guidance, but raised its full-year estimates. Hertz Global (HTZ 8.00, +0.30) has gained 3.9% after the company's CEO disclosed the purchase of 66,000 shares between May 13 and May 16.

Just released, the Industrial Production report pointed to an increase of 0.7% in April (Briefing.com consensus +0.2%) while capacity utilization hit 75.4% (Briefing.com consensus 75.0%).

8:59 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -4.70. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -6.60.

Futures remain lower following a hotter-than-expected reading of April CPI. The S&P 500 futures trade five points below fair value.

Equity markets across the Asia-Pacific region ended Tuesday on a mostly higher note. The Reserve Bank of Australia released its latest policy minutes, which showed that the last rate cut was a close call with several members lobbying for more time to assess data before cutting rates. Elsewhere, Japanese government officials have made more comments about a potential sales tax hike delay with Economy Minister Nobuteru Ishihara saying a delay is not in the cards.

In economic data:
Japan's March Industrial Production +3.8% month-over-month (expected 3.6%; last 3.6%) and March Capacity Utilization +3.2% month-over-month (last -5.4%)
Hong Kong's April Unemployment Rate held at 3.4%, as expected
Australia's April New Motor Vehicle Sales -2.5% month-over-month (expected -0.5%; last 2.2%)
New Zealand's Inflation Expectations held at 1.6% quarter-over-quarter
Singapore's trade surplus widened to SGD5.84 billion from SGD3.66 billion. Non-Oil Exports increased 4.5% month-over-month (expected 4.0%; previous 0.1%), but fell 7.9% year-over-year, as expected (previous -15.7%)

---Equity Markets---

Japan's Nikkei gained 1.1% with nine sectors ending in the green. Utilities (+2.8%), health care (+2.1%), and energy (+2.0%) outperformed while communications (-0.6%) lagged. Sumitomo Metal Mining, Tokuyama, Obayashi, Nippon Steel & Sumitomo Metal, Komatsu, and Casio advanced between 3.1% and 4.7%. On the downside, Sony Financial Holdings lost 4.9% and Mitsubishi Motors fell 0.9%.
Hong Kong's Hang Seng climbed 1.2% with financials and energy names ending the in the lead. Bank of East Asia, HSBC, and Bank of China Hong Kong gained between 2.3% and 4.8% while CNOOC, Kunlun Energy, and Petrochina added between 2.5% and 3.0%.
China's Shanghai Composite slipped 0.3%. Hainan Airlines fell 3.2% while Shenghe Resources Holdings, China Southern Airlines, and Tsinghua Tongfang posted losses between 3.0% and 5.6%.

European markets began the day with gains, but they have backed away from their opening highs. In the UK, the latest Brexit poll suggests the 'Leave' camp has the edge for the first time since February. The pound has rallied overnight, climbing to 1.4465 against the dollar. The recent move has pushed sterling up to the middle of this year's trading range. Elsewhere, German Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann said it is not the European Central Bank's job to buy time and that governments must use the period of low interest rates to implement reforms.

In economic data:
Eurozone March trade surplus widened to EUR28.60 billion from EUR19.00 billion (expected surplus of EUR22.50 billion)
UK's April CPI +0.1% month-over-month (expected 0.3%; last 0.4%); +0.3% year-over-year (consensus 0.5%; last 0.5%). Input PPI -6.5% year-over-year (consensus -6.7%; last -6.1%), Output PPI -0.7% year-over-year (consensus -0.8%; last -0.9%), Core CPI +1.2% year-over-year (consensus 1.5%; last 1.5%) and Core Output PPI +0.5% year-over-year (consensus 0.3%; last 0.3%). Separately, House Price Index +9.0% year-over-year (consensus 7.9%; last 7.6%)
Italy's March trade surplus expanded to EUR5.36 billion from EUR3.86 billion (expected surplus of EUR4.21 billion)
Swiss April PPI +0.3% month-over-month (expected 0.1%; last 0.0%); -2.4% year-over-year (consensus -2.7%; last -4.7%)

---Equity Markets---

UK's FTSE has narrowed its gain to 0.2%. Homebuilders remain strong with Taylor Wimpey and Barratt Developments up 5.0% and 2.3% while consumer names lag. TUI, Associated British Foods, Unilever, Diageo, Sainsbury, and British American Tobacco are down between 0.5% and 1.8%.
France's CAC is down 0.4% as weakness in industrial and consumer names outweighs relative strength in financials. Michelin, Peugeot, Renault, Valeo, Pernod Ricard, and Danone are down between 0.5% and 3.7% while Credit Agricole, Societe Generale, and BNP Paribas have gained between 0.6% and 1.6%.
Germany's DAX is lower by 0.5%. Exporters Volkswagen, Continental, and BMW show losses between 2.0% and 2.6% while Deutsche Bank also lags, trading lower by 1.5%. On the upside, Thyssenkrupp has climbed 1.1%.

8:35 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -4.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -6.00.

Futures ticked lower in recent action as investors digest an above-consensus reading of April CPI. The S&P 500 futures trade five points below fair value.

Just released, total CPI rose 0.4% (Briefing.com consensus +0.3%) in April while core CPI, which excludes food and energy, increased 0.2% (Briefing.com consensus +0.2%). On a year-over-year basis, total CPI is up 1.1% and core CPI is up 2.1%.

Separately, housing starts rose to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 1.172 million units in April, which was up from a revised 1.099 million units in March (from 1.089 million). The Briefing.com consensus expected starts to increase to 1.135 million units. Building permits increased to a seasonally adjusted 1.116 million in April from a revised 1.077 million for March (from 1.086 million). The Briefing.com consensus expected a reading of 1.130 million.

8:04 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -1.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +0.10.

U.S. equity futures trade on a flat note with the S&P 500 futures trading one point below fair value. Investors have adopted a wait-and-see posture ahead of key economic releases in the U.S. and amid doubts over whether the market can follow through on Monday's rally. Furthermore, participants are also ruminating over a disclosure that George Soros' fund doubled its bearish position on the S&P 500. Meanwhile, Home Depot (HD 134.00, -1.34) topped estimates for its first quarter, but the stock has recently dipped beneath its flat line in pre-market trade. For its part, WTI crude has gained 0.4% ($47.90/bbl).

The Treasury complex trades on a flat note with the yield on the 10-yr note unchanged at 1.76%.

On the economic front, data will include April Core CPI (Briefing.com consensus +0.3%), April Housing Starts (Briefing.com consensus 1135k), and April Building Permits (Briefing.com consensus 1130k), which will each cross the wires at 8:30 ET. Separately, April Industrial Production (Briefing.com consensus 0.2%) and April Capacity Utilization (Briefing.com consensus 75.0%) will be released at 9:15 ET.

In U.S. corporate news of note:

Lending Club (LC 3.42, -0.51): -13.1% after disclosing the receipt of a grand jury subpoena from the Department of Justice
Pandora (P 10.49, +0.51): +5.1% following Corvex Management disclosing a 9.95% active stake in the company
Home Depot (HD 134.00, -1.34): -1.0% after beating top- and bottom-line estimates for Q1 and raising its FY17 guidance
The Children's Place (PLCE 73.17, +4.94): +7.2% following the company reporting above-consensus bottom-line results for Q1 and issuing FY17 EPS guidance above analysts' estimates

Reviewing overnight developments:

Asia-Pacific markets ended mostly higher with Hong Kong's Hang Seng +1.2% and Japan's Nikkei +1.1% while China's Shanghai Composite ended lower by 0.3%.
In economic data:
Japan's March Industrial Production +3.8% month-over-month (expected 3.6%; last 3.6%) and March Capacity Utilization +3.2% month-over-month (last -5.4%)
Hong Kong's April Unemployment Rate held at 3.4%, as expected
Australia's April New Motor Vehicle Sales -2.5% month-over-month (expected -0.5%; last 2.2%)
New Zealand's Inflation Expectations held at 1.6% quarter-over-quarter
Singapore's trade surplus widened to SGD5.84 billion from SGD3.66 billion. Non-Oil Exports increased 4.5% month-over-month (expected 4.0%; previous 0.1%), but fell 7.9% year-over-year, as expected (previous -15.7%)
In news:
The Reserve Bank of Australia released its latest policy minutes, which showed that the last rate cut was a close call with several members lobbying for more time to assess data before cutting rates.
Japanese government officials made more comments about a potential sales tax hike delay with Economy Minister Nobuteru Ishihara saying a delay is not in the cards.

European indices trade on a flat note with the U.K.'s FTSE +0.5%, France's CAC +0.1%, and Germany's DAX -0.1%.
In economic data:
Eurozone March trade surplus widened to EUR28.60 billion from EUR19.00 billion (expected surplus of EUR22.50 billion)
UK's April CPI +0.1% month-over-month (expected 0.3%; last 0.4%); +0.3% year-over-year (consensus 0.5%; last 0.5%). Input PPI -6.5% year-over-year (consensus -6.7%; last -6.1%), Output PPI -0.7% year-over-year (consensus -0.8%; last -0.9%), Core CPI +1.2% year-over-year (consensus 1.5%; last 1.5%) and Core Output PPI +0.5% year-over-year (consensus 0.3%; last 0.3%). Separately, House Price Index +9.0% year-over-year (consensus 7.9%; last 7.6%)
Italy's March trade surplus expanded to EUR5.36 billion from EUR3.86 billion (expected surplus of EUR4.21 billion)
Swiss April PPI +0.3% month-over-month (expected 0.1%; last 0.0%); -2.4% year-over-year (consensus -2.7%; last -4.7%)
In news:
In the UK, the latest Brexit poll suggests the 'Leave' camp has the edge for the first time since February.
The pound has rallied overnight, climbing to 1.4480 against the dollar.
Meanwhile, German Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann said it is not the European Central Bank's job to buy time and that governments must use the period of low interest rates to implement reforms.

6:08 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +2.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +9.90.

6:08 am: [BRIEFING.COM] Nikkei...16653...+186.40...+1.10%. Hang Seng...20119...+234.90...+1.20%.

6:08 am: [BRIEFING.COM] FTSE...6196.77...+45.40...+0.70%. DAX...9978.56...+25.70...+0.30%.

Special thanks to Bloomberg, Briefing, Reuters and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader Image@ http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader

http://www.thestrategylab.com
Phone: +1 708 572-4885
Business Hours: 8am - 5pm est (Mon - Fri)
Skype Messenger: kebec2002
wrbanalysis@gmail.com


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