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 Post subject: March 17th Thursday Trade Results - Profit $2250.00
PostPosted: Fri Mar 18, 2016 5:08 am 
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Joined: Sat Jan 10, 2009 2:06 pm
Posts: 4335
Location: Canada
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Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
Phone: +1 708 572-4885
Free Chat Room: http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=164
Business Hours: 8am - 5pm est (Mon - Fri)
wrbanalysis@gmail.com (24/7)
http://twitter.com/wrbtrader (24/7)

Attachment:
031716-wrbtrader-Price-Action-Trading-PnL-Blotter-Profit+2250.00.png
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click on the above image to view today's performance verification

Price Action Trade Performance for Today: Emini TF ($TF_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.00 points, Emini ES ($ES_F) futures @ $2250.00 dollars or +45.00 points, Light Crude Oil CL ($CL_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.00 points, Gold GC ($GC_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.00 points and EuroFX 6E ($6E_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.0000 ticks. Total Profit @ $2250.00 dollars

Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures: 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures: 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup
Light Crude Oil CL (WTI) Futures: 1 tick or 0.01 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup
Gold GC Futures: 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup
EuroFX 6E Futures: 1 tick or 0.0001 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup

Trade Log: All of my trades were posted real-time in the timestamp ##TheStrategyLab free chat room. You can read today's price action trading information about my trades (e.g. time, price entry, contract size, price exit) as the trade traversed to its completion. Also, sometimes I'll post real-time trading tips in ##TheStrategyLab chat room involving WRBs, WRB Hidden GAPs, Key Market Events (KME), Tutorial Chapters 2 & 3, WRB Zones, Reaction Highs/Lows, Contracting Volatility or Expanding Volatility. Its all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=154&t=2315

Quote:
All of my real-time posted trades involves price action concepts from the WRB Analysis free study guide, Advance WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 4 - 12 and the Volatility Trading Report (VTR) trade signal strategies. Analysis -----> Trade Signals

Also, posted below are direct links to information about my price action trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis). I'm primarily a day trader because it suits my personal lifestyle but I do occasionally swing trade and position trade. Simply, my trade method is applicable for position trading, swing trading and day trading.

Image ##TheStrategyLab Chat Room is free. Members and I use the chat room to post WRB Analysis commentary, real-time trades and to post anything else related to trading. The chat room helps me tremendously in my own trading because I use it to document (journal) general volatility analysis involving WRB Analysis so that I can easily review at a later date my thoughts as I interacted with the markets...info I can not get from my broker statements. Also, this is not a signal calling chat room where a head trader tells you when to buy or sell and I do not have the time/energy/resources to manage a signal calling chat room. Access instructions for chat room @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=164

Image Price Action Analysis via Advance WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=119&t=718

Analysis -----> Trade Signals

Image Trade Signal Strategies via Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our price action trade strategies with support (answering your questions) prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR). All WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1 - 12 are included in the purchase of the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Image Daily Trading Plan Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=285&t=3049 contains brief information about trading plan, market context, brokers, trading time frames, position size management and other discussions.

-----------------------------

Market Context Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, Briefing, Reuters and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED/ECB/BOE/IMF actions or any important global economic events (e.g. Eurozone, MarketWatch.com) that had an impact on today's price action in many trading instruments I monitor during the trading day. Simply, I'm a strong believer that key market events causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility resulting in trade opportunities (swing points and strong continuation price actions) that reach profit targets. Thus, I pay attention to these key market events, intermarket analysis (e.g. Forex EurUsd, EuroFX 6E futures, Gold GC futures, Light Crude Oil (WTI) CL & Brent Oil futures, Eurex DAX futures, Euronext FTSE100 futures, Emini ES futures, Emini TF futures, Treasury ZB futures and U.S. Dollar Index futures) while using WRB Analysis from one trade to the next trade to give me the market context for price action trading before the appearance of my technical analysis trade signals. Therefore, I maintain these archives to allow me to understand what was happening on any given trading day in the past involving key market events to help better understand my trade decisions (day trading, swing trading, position trading)...something I can not get from my broker statements alone. Further, most financial websites remove (delete) their archives after a few years to make room for new content. Therefore, I maintain my own archives of the news content so that I have it available for me when financial websites no longer archives their content.

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click on the above image to view today's price action of key markets


4:20 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The stock market ended Thursday's session up 0.7%. The gain itself was not a major gain, yet today's trading action was notable as the S&P 500 got back to the unchanged mark for the year (and even slightly positive) during the session. Some late-day selling interest knocked the S&P back into red figures for the year, but only by a slim margin (-0.2%).

Today's trading remained focused on the latest policy statement from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) as investors maintained their risk-on disposition. Meanwhile, supportive conditions from a weaker dollar and the resulting rally in commodities also contributed to today's advance.

Equity indices opened their day modestly lower as global bourses digested Wednesday's decision from the FOMC to leave the fed funds rate unchanged and to lower the projected glide path for future increases. Despite the dovish tone, foreign markets ended mostly lower as the decision also emphasized uncertain conditions involving global economic and financial developments.

The risk-off posture ended within the first hour of trading as a rally in dollar-denominated commodities bolstered the broader market.

Both oil and gold benefited from a tumble in the greenback as the dollar slipped in the wake of traders re-thinking their policy divergence trades. WTI crude ended its day higher by 4.0% at $40.66/bbl while gold jumped 2.9% to finish at $1,265.10/ozt.

The commodity-sensitives materials (+2.3%) and energy (+1.4%) sectors were standouts for most of today's session, yet they had ample company as every sector, with the exception of the health care sector (-1.1%), ended in positive territory.

A rally in the industrials sector (+2.0%) was instrumental in lending support to the broader market, along with the outperformance of the heavily-weighted financial sector (+1.2%). The industrials benefited from logistics company FedEx (FDX 161.34, +17.07), which rallied 11.8% following a third quarter earnings beat. Additionally, while Caterpillar (CAT 75.90, +1.56) struggled initially after issuing a first quarter sales and earnings warning, it soon reversed course as investors took some comfort in the fact that Caterpillar also reaffirmed its full year sales and earnings guidance.

The heavily-weighted financial sector displayed some early weakness but managed to rebound as money-center banks recovered from their session lows, helped in part by the rally in the commodities space that lessened some of the related angst surrounding banks' loan exposure to embattled commodity companies. Investment banks provided added sector leadership with Morgan Stanley (MS 25.85, +0.69) rallying 2.7%.

The countercyclical health care sector (-1.1%) was a weak spot, but still ended well off its session low (-2.0%). A bounce in the biotechnology pace helped the sector pare its losses. The iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 247.09, -3.11) tumbled as much as 3.3% today before ending down 1.2%. The weakness in the health care space was broad based, though, as Merck (MRK 51.59, -0.35) and fellow Dow component UnitedHealth (UNH 124.53, -0.37) ended at the bottom of the price-weighted average.

The yield on the 10-yr note traded down to 1.88% (-3 bps) in early action, but lost some swagger as the stock market began to extend its gains and settled at 1.90%.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (+0.9%) finished ahead of the S&P 500 (+0.7%) and the tech-heavy Nasdaq (+0.2%). With today's action, the Dow Jones Industrial Average entered positive territory for the year (+0.3%). Notably, despite the bullish bias, today's trading volume was still lower than average with 1.012 billion shares changing hands at the NYSE.

Today's economic data included weekly initial claims, March Philadelphia Fed Survey, Q4 Current Account Balance, February's Leading Indicators, and the JOLTS Job Opening Report for January:

Initial claims for the week ending March 12 rose by 7,000 to 265,000 (Briefing.com consensus 266,000). With few exceptions along the way, initial claims have basically been between 250,000 and 300,000 since July 2014.
Today's report highlights the fact that initial claims have been below 300,000 for 54 straight weeks, which is the longest streak since 1973.
There were no special factors influencing the latest initial claims reading, which bumped the four-week moving average to 268,000 from 267,000.
Continuing claims for the week ending March 5 were 2.235 million, an increase of 8,000 from the prior week's revised level of 2.227 million (from 2.225 million).
The four-week moving average for continuing claims decreased by 9,250 to 2.243 million, which is the lowest it has been since the week of January 9, 2016.
The Philadelphia Fed Index checked in at 12.4 for March versus -2.8 for February. That was much better than the Briefing.com consensus estimate of -1.4 and the first positive reading in seven months.
A number above zero for this particular index denotes expansion in manufacturing activity.
The positive reading for March then is a welcome sight, although it may perhaps only be a function of the lengthy streak of contraction in the region that spurred the rebound in March.
We'll learn more with the April reading if this was simply a one-month rebound from depressed conditions or the start perhaps of a lengthier expansion.
The improvement in March was spurred by large increases in the new orders index, which jumped to 15.7 from -5.3, and the shipments index, which surged to 22.1 from 2.5.
The unfilled orders index also showed some notable improvement, moving to -1.9 from -12.7, yet it is still indicative of contraction, albeit at a slower pace.
Firms continued to report an overall decline in inventories, with that particular index moving to -12.7 from -17.1. The number of employees index also remained negative, but improved to -1.1 from -5.0.
The Prices Paid Index followed a similar course, checking in at -0.9 versus -2.2 for February.
Notably, respondents' six-month outlook picked up sharply, rising to 28.8 from 17.3 in February. That is the highest reading in four months.
The fourth quarter current account balance narrowed to -$125.3 billion (Briefing.com consensus -$116.0 billion) from a downwardly revised -$129.9 billion (from -$124.1 billion).
The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index increased 0.1% in February (Briefing.com consensus 0.2%) after declining 0.2% in January and 0.3% in December. For the six-month period ending in February, the leading economic index increased just 0.3% versus 2.0% during the previous six months.
The bump up in February was led by positive contributions from initial claims (0.18 percentage points) and the yield spread (0.16 percentage points).
Small contributions were made by the leading credit index (0.04 percentage points) and manufacturers's new orders for consumer goods and materials (0.02 percentage points); otherwise, all other components made negative contributions or no contribution at all. The biggest drag on the February reading was building permits, which subtracted 0.1 percentage points.
Separately, the Coincident Index also increased 0.1% in February while the Lagging Index increased 0.4%.
The January Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey showed that job openings increased to 5.541 million from a revised 5.281 million (from 5.607 million) in December.

Tomorrow's economic data will be limited to the University of Michigan preliminary reading of the Michigan Sentiment Index for March, which will be released at 10:00 ET.

Nasdaq Composite -4.6% YTD
Russell 2000 -4.0% YTD
S&P 500 -0.2% YTD
Dow Jones +0.3% YTD

3:40 pm: [BRIEFING.COM]

Dollar index slid lower today, which gave a real boost to commodities
May crude oil rallied, finished up today's session+4% at $41.66/barrel
Apr natural gas reversed in afternoon trade, closing +3.7% at $1.94/MMBtu
Precious metals extended gains today
May silver soared, running +5.3% to $16.03/oz, while Apr gold rallied +2.9% at $1265.10/oz

2:55 pm:

[BRIEFING.COM] As the stock market enters its final hour, the major averages float below their session highs with the S&P 500 (+0.8%) resting three points off its best level of the day.

All ten sectors have pulled back from their best levels as the benchmark index tested and was unable to clear a resistance level at 2043/2045.

The heavily-weighted technology sector (+0.5%), trades behind the broader market as large cap names underperform. To that point, Apple (AAPL 105.67, -0.30), Alphabet (GOOGL 759.13, +1.77), and Facebook (FB 111.05, -1.13) demonstrate relative weakness. To be fair though, Apple has climbed 3.7% over a week-to-date basis, compared to 2.2% in the broader sector. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 has gained 1.1% over that period.

On the commodities front, WTI crude ended its pit session higher by 4.0% at $40.66/bbl. Separately, gold surged 2.9% to $1,265.10/ozt before the end of its trading session.

2:30 pm:

[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (+0.8%) has followed the Dow Jones Industrial Average (+1.1%) into positive territory for the year. The benchmark has managed to recover 11.2% since its intraday low on February 11 (1810.10) as it trades higher by 0.1% on a year-to-date basis.

The materials sector (+2.3%) remains ahead of both the industrials (+2.1%) and energy (+2.1%) groups on the top of the leaderboard.

In the industrial space (+2.1%), machinery name Caterpillar (CAT 76.10, +1.76) continues to rally off its session low (73.52). The company began its day lower by 1.1% after issuing a warning for its first quarter earnings and sales. However, Caterpillar has rebounded thanks to broad market and sector support. Furthermore, the company reaffirmed its full year earnings estimates.

The yield on the 10-yr note lingers near its flat line as it continues its narrow range bound day. Currently, the 10-yr yield is lower by one basis point at 1.90%. The yield has jumped 37 basis points from its intraday year-to-date low of 1.53% (also on February 11).

2:00 pm:

[BRIEFING.COM] The major averages float near fresh session highs as the S&P 500 (+0.7%) outpaces the tech-heavy Nasdaq (+0.3%) and flirts with being unchanged (or even positive) for the year.

The consumer discretionary space (+0.5%) and heavily-weighted technology sector (+0.6%) are lending support that is offsetting the weakness in the health care sector (-1.3%).

In the consumer discretionary space (+0.3%), large cap constituent Amazon (AMZN 561.31, -12.96) continues to weigh on the broader sector after reports indicated that Apple (AAPL 106.14, +0.17) will be moving away from Amazon's web service business in favor of Alphabet's (GOOGL, 762.71, +5.35) Google Cloud Platform. Additionally, home improvement names and fast casual restaurants also underperform in the group.

On the commodities front, WTI crude vacillates on either side of the $40.00/bbl mark as the energy component attempts to continue its rally. Oil has climbed 16.2% month-to-date and now trades at $39.38/bbl.

1:35 pm:

[BRIEFING.COM] The major U.S. indices have pulled back slightly from their intra-day highs but still sport solid gains after Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed back into positive territory for the year.

A look inside the Dow shows that General Electric (GE 30.86, +0.69), Procter & Gamble (PG 83.04, +1.70), and Boeing (BA 130.18, +2.61) are outperforming. Boeing and GE are among the Dow's top gainers as the industrial sector trades notably in advance of the broader market.

Conversely, UnitedHealth Group (UNH 123.00, -1.90) is the worst-performing Dow component as health care, today's lone sector in negative territory, lags.

Like mentioned, the DJIA is now in positive territory for 2016, having gained more than 5.6% this month.

1:10 pm:

[BRIEFING.COM] The stock market trades on a higher note, extending yesterday's rally following the latest policy statement from the Federal Open Market Committee. Additional focal points for today's trade have included a rally in commodities, and the noticeable underperformance of the health care (-1.4%) sector. Currently, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (+0.8%) trades ahead of both the S&P 500 (+0.6%) and the Nasdaq Composite (+0.2%). Interesting to note, the Dow Jones has been able to erase its 2016 loss and is now higher by 0.2% in 2016.

The stock market opened under some moderate selling pressure as heavily-weighted health care (-1.4%) and financials (+0.9%) weighed on the broader market. The financial sector was able to recover from an early 0.7% loss and moved to the positive side of the board within the first hour of trading. Money center banks contributed to the early bounce as Wells Fargo (WFC 49.72, +0.18) and Citigroup (C 42.54, +0.31) rebounded from morning losses of 1.2% and 1.5%, respectively.

As a result of the narrowing policy divergence, the U.S. Dollar Index (94.71, -1.18) floats near its session low as the greenback loses ground to the euro and the yen. The euro/dollar pair has gained 0.9% to trade at 1.1325 while the dollar/yen has surrendered 1.2% to trade at 111.20. Weakness in the greenback provided a boost to commodities as dollar-denominated oil and gold rally. WTI crude has surged 3.4% to trade at $39.77/bbl while gold has jumped 2.9% to trade at $1,265.70/ozt.

On the leaderboard, the industrial sector (+1.9%) leads commodity-sensitive materials (+1.8%) and energy (+1.7%) while heavily-weighted health care (-1.4%) and consumer discretionary (+0.3%) round out the board.

The industrial space (+1.9%) has benefited from strength in logistics names as FedEx (FDX 159.89, +15.92) surges 10.8% after reporting above-consensus third quarter results. The courier's top line has grown 8.0% year-over-year. Also interesting to note, FedEx lowered its 2016 GDP forecast for the U.S. to 2.2% from 2.6%. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Transportation Average has rallied 2.9% today as rail names outperform.

In commodity-sensitive energy, independent oil and gas names demonstrate relative strength while oil and gas refiners lag the sector. On that note, ConocoPhillips (COP 43.29, +1.42) has jumped 3.4% while Valero Energy (VLO 64.49, -1.45) stumbles 2.2%.

On the bottom of the leaderboard, biotechnology continues to weigh on the health care space (-1.4%), as the iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 245.13, -5.07) plummets 2.0%. To be fair though, health care provider and service names also underperform. On the note, Dow competent UnitedHealth (UNH 122.95, -1.95) shows the largest loss in the price-weighted index.

The Treasury complex trades narrowly higher as the yield on the 10-yr note slips one basis point to 1.90%.

Today's economic data included weekly initial claims, March Philadelphia Fed Survey, Q4 Current Account Balance, February's Leading Indicators, and the JOLTS Job Opening Report for January:

Initial claims for the week ending March 12 rose by 7,000 to 265,000 (Briefing.com consensus 266,000). With few exceptions along the way, initial claims have basically been between 250,000 and 300,000 since July 2014.
Today's report highlights the fact that initial claims have been below 300,000 for 54 straight weeks, which is the longest streak since 1973.
There were no special factors influencing the latest initial claims reading, which bumped the four-week moving average to 268,000 from 267,000.
Continuing claims for the week ending March 5 were 2.235 million, an increase of 8,000 from the prior week's revised level of 2.227 million (from 2.225 million).
The four-week moving average for continuing claims decreased by 9,250 to 2.243 million, which is the lowest it has been since the week of January 9, 2016.
The Philadelphia Fed Index checked in at 12.4 for March versus -2.8 for February. That was much better than the Briefing.com consensus estimate of -1.4 and the first positive reading in seven months.
A number above zero for this particular index denotes expansion in manufacturing activity.
The positive reading for March then is a welcome sight, although it may perhaps only be a function of the lengthy streak of contraction in the region that spurred the rebound in March.
We'll learn more with the April reading if this was simply a one-month rebound from depressed conditions or the start perhaps of a lengthier expansion.
The improvement in March was spurred by large increases in the new orders index, which jumped to 15.7 from -5.3, and the shipments index, which surged to 22.1 from 2.5.
The unfilled orders index also showed some notable improvement, moving to -1.9 from -12.7, yet it is still indicative of contraction, albeit at a slower pace.
Firms continued to report an overall decline in inventories, with that particular index moving to -12.7 from -17.1. The number of employees index also remained negative, but improved to -1.1 from -5.0.
The Prices Paid Index followed a similar course, checking in at -0.9 versus -2.2 for February.
Notably, respondents' six-month outlook picked up sharply, rising to 28.8 from 17.3 in February. That is the highest reading in four months.
The fourth quarter current account balance narrowed to -$125.3 billion (Briefing.com consensus -$116.0 billion) from a downwardly revised -$129.9 billion (from -$124.1 billion).
The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index increased 0.1% in February (Briefing.com consensus 0.2%) after declining 0.2% in January and 0.3% in December. For the six-month period ending in February, the leading economic index increased just 0.3% versus 2.0% during the previous six months.
The bump up in February was led by positive contributions from initial claims (0.18 percentage points) and the yield spread (0.16 percentage points).
Small contributions were made by the leading credit index (0.04 percentage points) and manufacturers's new orders for consumer goods and materials (0.02 percentage points); otherwise, all other components made negative contributions or no contribution at all. The biggest drag on the February reading was building permits, which subtracted 0.1 percentage points.
Separately, the Coincident Index also increased 0.1% in February while the Lagging Index increased 0.4%.
The January Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey showed that job openings increased to 5.541 million from a revised 5.281 million (from 5.607 million) in December.

12:30 pm:

[BRIEFING.COM] The major U.S. indices float at new session highs as the S&P 500 (+0.5%) rallied 14 points off its opening low. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (+0.7%) moved into positive territory on a year-to-date basis.

The industrial (+1.7%) sector has overtaken commodity-sensitive materials (+1.6%) on the leaderboard while consumer discretionary flirts (UNCH) with its flat line.

Elsewhere, the heavily-weighted financial sector (+0.5%) has been able to recover from an initial loss of 0.7% this morning. Money center banks have contributed to the bounce with Wells Fargo (WFC 49.51, -0.02) and Citigroup (C 42.18, -0.05) rebounding from early losses of 1.2% and 1.5%, respectively. Meanwhile, asset management name Franklin Resources (BEN 38.58, +1.01) has rallied 2.7% as it attempts to rebound from Tuesday's sharp decline following a downgrade at Bank of America/ Merrill. The broader financial sector has managed to trim its week-to-date decline to 0.2%, remaining lower by 6.2% so far in the first quarter.

The Treasury complex has inched higher with the yield on the 10-yr note falling two basis points to 1.89%.

12:00 pm:

[BRIEFING.COM] The major averages have traded sideways in recent action as the S&P 500 (+0.4%) trades ahead of the Nasdaq Composite (-0.2%).

The leaderboard remains little changed with industrials (+1.6%) trading neck-and-neck with commodity sensitive materials (+1.6%) while energy (+1.4%) rounds out third place.

The energy space is benefiting from a continued rally in crude oil as the energy component trades higher by 3.2% at $39.66/bbl. WTI crude has gained 17.0% month-to-date while the energy sector has gained 11.3% over that same period. Today's trade has seen relative strength from independent oil and gas names while oil and gas refiners lag. To that point, Valero Energy (VLO 64.22, -1.72) and Marathon Petroleum (MPC 37.45, -0.94) have sunk 2.5% and 2.0%, respectively. Elsewhere, Phillips 66 (PSX 87.93, +0.36) underperforms the sector but trades ahead of the broader market.

Dollar-denominated oil is enjoying a reprieve from the strong greenback today as the dollar slips against both the yen and the euro. The dollar/yen pair trades lower by 1.0% at 111.50 while the euro/dollar pair trades at 1.1305 (+0.7%)

11:30 am:

[BRIEFING.COM] The stock market has ticked higher since our last update as the Dow Jones Industrial Average (+0.6%) outperforms the S&P 500 (+0.4%). The benchmark index floats within one point of its session high.

Nine of ten sectors trade in positive territory with consumer discretionary (+0.1%) and technology (+0.4%) showing the slimmest advances of the day. On the flipside, materials (+1.6%), industrials (+1.4%), and energy (+1.4%) lead the pack.

In the health care space (-1.4%), biotechnology continues to weigh on the broader sector as the iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 243.27, -6.93) plunges 2.8%. The ETF has plummeted 5.4% since the start of March while the broader health care space shows a month-to-date loss of 0.4%. The next worst-performing sector (consumer staples) shows a gain of 3.6% over that period. Meanwhile, health care provider and service names display relative weakness as Express Scripts (ESRX 66.32, -3.75) dives 5.3%. The company's intraday low (65.97) fell within a striking distance of its 52-week low (65.55). On a related note, health care provider and Dow competent UnitedHealth (UNH 122.92, -1.98) shows the largest loss in the price-weighted index.

11:00 am:

[BRIEFING.COM] The major averages float near fresh session highs after the S&P 500 (+0.2%) rallied nine points off its session low. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq Composite (-0.1%) remains behind the broader market and under its flat line.

The stock market has ticked up in recent action as the Dow Jones Transportation Average (+2.1%) leads the broader market higher. The outperformance of the transports has helped the industrial sector (+1.1%) move up to follow materials (+1.5%) on the top of the leaderboard.

In the Transportation Average, FedEx (FDX 159.35, +15.08) has surged 10.4% after reporting a third quarter earnings beat. The company's top-line climbed 8.0% year-over-year. On a related note, FedEx lowered its 2016 GDP forecast for the U.S. to 2.2% from 2.6%. Elsewhere, fellow freight name UPS (UPS 103.44, +1.77) has rallied 1.7% in sympathy with FedEx. Conversely, airlines underperform in the Transportation Index as American Airlines (AAL 41.98, -0.33) and Delta Airlines (DAL 48.40, -0.36) tumble 0.8% apiece.

On the commodities front, WTI crude has extended its gain to 3.6% ($39.84/bbl).

10:45 am: [BRIEFING.COM]

Dollar index is weak again, which is giving a real boost to commodities this morning
Apr crude oil is up again, so far, and is back near the $41/barrel area (now using the May contract)
In current trade, May crude oil is +2.9% at $41.15/barrel
In other energy, Apr natural gas futures are -0.4% $1.86/MMBtu following the weekly EIA storage data
Metals are strong following the weakness seen in the dollar index
Apr gold is now +3.1% at $1267.30/oz, while May silver is +5.5% at $16.05/oz
May copper is +2% at $2.28/lb

10:00 am:

[BRIEFING.COM] The tech-heavy Nasdaq (-0.3%) and the S&P 500 (-0.2%) hover near session lows while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (UNCH) outperforms.

Just released, the CB Leading Indicators report for February was higher by 0.1% (Briefing.com consensus +0.2%) from an unrevised January reading of -0.2%.

Separately, the January Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey showed that job openings increased to 5.541 million from a revised 5.281 million (from 5.607 million) in December.

9:45 am:

[BRIEFING.COM] The major averages began their day on a lower note as the Nasdaq Composite (-0.3%) outpaced the losses in the S&P 500 (-0.2%).

Six of ten sector trade in negative territory with the heavily-weighted financial (-0.6%) and health care (-0.7%) sectors leading to the downside. Conversely, commodity-sensitive energy (+0.3%) and materials (+0.5%) show the largest gains. Meanwhile, the remaining decliners show losses between 0.1% (utilities) and 0.2% (consumer discretionary).

In health care, biotechnology displays relative weakness as the iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 246.00, -4.20) falls 1.7%.

On the commodities front, WTI crude has climbed 1.8% to trade at $39.15/bbl while gold has surged 2.8% to $1,264.20/ozt.

9:17 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -2.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -15.50.

The stock market is on track for a modestly lower open as the S&P 500 futures float three points below fair value.

Equity futures tumbled overnight as investors ruminated over the Fed's latest policy statement, which held the fed funds rate unchanged and lowered the projected glide path for future increases. This dovish tone caused a rally in equity indices yesterday, but today has featured a risk-off undertone in global markets as participants focus on growing uncertainty involving global economic and financial developments. In the last hour, futures ticked up alongside a similar move in the U.S. Dollar Index (95.03, -0.86). That move has faded slightly as the dollar/yen pair slips from its recent high of 111.91 to trade at 111.50 (-1.0%) while the euro/dollar pair jumped from the 1.1289 level to trade higher by 0.8% (1.1317). Weakness in the greenback provided commodities with added support overnight as dollar-denominated oil and gold received a bid. Currently, WTI crude trades higher by 2.4% at $39.36/bbl while gold has surged 3.2% to trade at $1,269.10/ozt.

On the corporate front, Caterpillar (CAT 72.35, -1.99) has tumbled 2.7% in pre-market action after issuing a sales and earnings warning for the first quarter. Meanwhile, retail names Guess? (GES 18.50, -2.82) and Williams-Sonoma (WSM 56.06, -3.40) have surrendered a respective 13.7% and 5.7% after both reported earnings misses and issued earnings estimates below analysts' expectations.

The Treasury complex trades modestly higher as the yield on the 10-yr note remains down one basis point at 1.90% after falling as low as 1.85% (-6 bps) overnight.

8:56 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -5.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -20.90.

The S&P 500 futures trade six points below fair value.

Equity markets across the Asia-Pacific region ended Thursday on a mixed, and generally quiet, note. However, it was a busy day on the economic front with Japan reporting a slimmer trade surplus than expected (JPY170 billion; expected JPY240 billion) while Australia's jobs data showed a smaller than expected increase in employment (+300; expected +10,000). Staying in Australia, Reserve Bank of Australia Assistant Governor Guy Debelle said the central bank believes that the Aussie remains overvalued. The Australian dollar continued its recent climb against the U.S. dollar despite the remarks, rising to 0.7635.

In economic data:
Japan's February trade surplus JPY170 billion (expected JPY240 billion; previous JPY70 billion). February Imports -14.2% (expected -15.2%; last -18.0%) and February Exports -4.0% year-over-year (consensus -3.1%; last -12.9%)
China's FDI 1.7% (expected 1.8%; previous 3.2%)
Australia's February Employment Change +300 (expected 10,000; previous -7,400), Participation Rate 64.9% (expected 65.2%; last 65.1%), and Unemployment Rate 5.8% (expected 6.0%; last 6.0%)
New Zealand's Q4 GDP +0.9% quarter-over-quarter (expected 0.6%; last 0.9%); +2.3% year-over-year (consensus 2.0%; last 2.3%)
Singapore's February trade surplus SGD4.06 billion (previous SGD6.07 billion)

---Equity Markets---

Japan's Nikkei shed 0.2% after sliding from its opening high. The slide was paced by utilities (-0.8%), consumer staples (-0.6%), materials (-0.4%), and financials (-0.3%) while energy (+1.0%) and health care (+0.2%) outperformed. Toshiba, Okuma, Asahi Group Holdings, JTEKT, Canon, TEPCO, and Nitto Denko lost between 1.3% and 8.0%. Conversely, Kubota, Unitika, Fujitsu, and Advantest added between 1.6% and 2.5%.
Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose 1.2% amid strength in energy names. CNOOC, Petrochina, China Shenhua Energy, and Chia Resources Power saw gains between 3.1% and 9.1%. Financials also displayed relative strength with Hang Seng Bank, Ping An Insurance, and China Life Insurance rising between 2.2% and 2.5%.
China's Shanghai Composite climbed 1.2% with China Shipbuilding, Industrial Securities, and CITIC Securities posting gains between 2.2% and 3.3%.

Major European indices trade lower across the board, having spent the first half in a steady retreat from their opening highs. Meanwhile, the euro has climbed nearly 0.7% against the dollar, rising to 1.1298. In central bank news, Norway's Norges Bank cut its key rate by 25 basis points to 0.50% and signaled that more rate cuts may be on the way. Elsewhere, the Swiss National Bank held its key rate at -0.75%, as expected.

In economic data:
Eurozone January trade surplus EUR6.20 billion (expected EUR20.20 billion; previous EUR24.30 billion). Separately, February CPI +0.2% month-over-month (expected 0.1%; last -1.4%); -0.2% year-over-year, as expected. February Core CPI +0.4% month-over-month (last -1.7%); +0.8% year-over-year (consensus 0.7%; last 0.7%)
Italy's January trade surplus EUR40 million (expected EUR4.33 billion; previous EUR6.00 billion)
Swiss February PPI -0.6% month-over-month (expected 0.2%; last -0.4%); -4.6% year-over-year (consensus -5.1%; last -5.3%)

---Equity Markets---

UK's FTSE is lower by 0.4% with financials on the defensive. RBS, HSBC, Barclays, and Standard Chartered hold losses between 2.2% and 2.5%. Consumer names also appear among the laggards with British American Tobacco, InterContinental Hotels, Burberry, Next, and Merlin Enetertainments down between 1.5% and 3.0%. Miners outperform with Anglo American, Glencore, BHP Billiton, and Antofagasta up between 6.7% and 8.1%.
France's CAC trades down 1.3% with bank shares leading the slide. BNP Paribas, Airbus Group, and Credit Agricole show losses between 2.7% and 3.8%. Only a handful of names show gains with ArcelorMittal and Technip up 3.6% and 3.2%, respectively.
Germany's DAX has surrendered 1.6% with Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank leading to the downside with respective losses of 4.5% and 3.4%. Exporters also lag with BMW, Daimler, and Continental down between 2.3% and 2.9%.

8:30 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -6.10. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -23.00.

The S&P 500 futures trade six points below fair value.

The latest weekly initial jobless claims count totaled 265,000 while the Briefing.com consensus expected a reading of 266,000. Today's tally compared to 258,000 in the prior week. As for continuing claims, they rose to 2.235 million from 2.227 million (revised from 2.225 million).

Separately, the Philadelphia Fed Survey for March rose to 12.4 from -2.8 while economists polled by Briefing.com had expected an increase to -1.4.

Also of note, the current account deficit for the fourth quarter totaled $125.3 billion while the Briefing.com consensus expected the deficit to hit $116.0 billion. The third quarter deficit was revised to $129.9 billion from $124.1 billion.

8:00 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -8.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -27.00.

U.S. equity futures trade broadly lower with the S&P 500 futures hovering eight points below fair value.

Ahead of today's session global markets digested yesterday's decision from the Fed to leave the fed funds rate unchanged and to adjust its glide path expectations. The Federal Open Market Committee cited global economic and financial developments for its decision. Meanwhile, commodities rallied overnight as oil extended its recent winning streak while gold rebounded. Currently, WTI crude trades higher by 1.4% at $39.02/bbl while gold has climbed 3.3% to trade at $1,269.90/ozt.

The U.S. Dollar Index (94.78, -1.11) remained pressured as the greenback sunk against the yen and the euro. The dollar/yen pair trades at 110.88 (-1.5%) while the euro has gained 0.9% (1.1327) against the dollar.

The Treasury complex has seen some increased buying interest this morning with the yield on the 10-yr note falling four basis points to 1.87%.

On the economic front, today's data includes weekly initial claims (Briefing.com consensus 266k), March Philadelphia Fed Survey (Briefing.com consensus -1.4), and Q4 Current Account Balance (Briefing.com consensus -$116.0 Billion) each crossing the wires at 8:30 ET. Meanwhile February's Leading Indicators (Briefing.com consensus 0.2%) and the JOLTS Job Opening Report for January will be reported at 10:00 ET.

In U.S. corporate news of note:

FedEx (152.00, +7.73): +5.4% after reporting an earnings beat for the fourth quarter and receiving a price target increase at Cowen from $175 to $180
Caterpillar (CAT 72.05, -2.29): -3.1% following the company providing guidance for the first quarter that was below analyst consensus
Michaels Stores (MIK 25.79, +1.47): +6.0% after reporting an earnings beat for the fourth quarter and announcing a $200 million share buyback
Intercontinental Hotels Group (IHG 39.44, -0.75): -1.9% after receiving a downgrade at Morgan Stanley from "Overweight" to "Equal Weight"

Reviewing overnight developments:

Asian equity markets ended Thursday on a mixed note with China's Shanghai Composite +1.2% and Hong Kong's Hang Seng +1.2% ending in positive territory while Japan's Nikkei shed 0.2%.
In economic data:
Japan's February trade surplus JPY170 billion (expected JPY240 billion; previous JPY70 billion). February Imports -14.2% (expected -15.2%; last -18.0%) and February Exports -4.0% year-over-year (consensus -3.1%; last -12.9%)
China's FDI 1.7% (expected 1.8%; previous 3.2%)
Australia's February Employment Change +300 (expected 10,000; previous -7,400), Participation Rate 64.9% (expected 65.2%; last 65.1%), and Unemployment Rate 5.8% (expected 6.0%; last 6.0%)
New Zealand's Q4 GDP +0.9% quarter-over-quarter (expected 0.6%; last 0.9%); +2.3% year-over-year (consensus 2.0%; last 2.3%)
Singapore's February trade surplus SGD4.06 billion (previous SGD6.07 billion)

European indices trade lower with Germany's DAX -1.9%, France's CAC -1.6%, and the U.K.'s FTSE -0.3%.
In economic data:
Eurozone January trade surplus EUR6.20 billion (expected EUR20.20 billion; previous EUR24.30 billion). Separately, February CPI +0.2% month-over-month (expected 0.1%; last -1.4%); -0.2% year-over-year, as expected. February Core CPI +0.4% month-over-month (last -1.7%); +0.8% year-over-year (consensus 0.7%; last 0.7%)
Italy's January trade surplus EUR40 million (expected EUR4.33 billion; previous EUR6.00 billion)
Swiss February PPI -0.6% month-over-month (expected 0.2%; last -0.4%); -4.6% year-over-year (consensus -5.1%; last -5.3%)
In news:
The euro has climbed nearly 1.0% against the dollar, rising to 1.1327.
Norway's Norges Bank cut its key rate by 25 basis points to 0.50% and signaled that more rate cuts may be on the way
The Swiss National Bank held its key rate at -0.75%, as expected

5:55 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -3.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -16.00.

5:55 am: [BRIEFING.COM] Nikkei...16936...-38.10...-0.20%. Hang Seng...20504...+246.10...+1.20%.

5:55 am: [BRIEFING.COM] FTSE...6186.44...+11.00...+0.20%. DAX...9908.59...-74.80...-0.80%.

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader Image@ http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader

http://www.thestrategylab.com
Phone: +1 708 572-4885
Business Hours: 8am - 5pm est (Mon - Fri)
Skype Messenger: kebec2002
wrbanalysis@gmail.com


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