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 Post subject: March 16th Wednesday Trade Results - Profit $14487.50
PostPosted: Wed Mar 16, 2016 9:16 pm 
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Joined: Sat Jan 10, 2009 2:06 pm
Posts: 4335
Location: Canada
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Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
Phone: +1 708 572-4885
Free Chat Room: http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=164
Business Hours: 8am - 5pm est (Mon - Fri)
wrbanalysis@gmail.com (24/7)
http://twitter.com/wrbtrader (24/7)

Attachment:
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click on the above image to view today's performance verification

Price Action Trade Performance for Today: Emini TF ($TF_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.00 points, Emini ES ($ES_F) futures @ $14487.50 dollars or +289.75 points, Light Crude Oil CL ($CL_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.00 points, Gold GC ($GC_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.00 points and EuroFX 6E ($6E_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.0000 ticks. Total Profit @ $14487.50 dollars

Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures: 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures: 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup
Light Crude Oil CL (WTI) Futures: 1 tick or 0.01 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup
Gold GC Futures: 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup
EuroFX 6E Futures: 1 tick or 0.0001 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup

Trade Log: All of my trades were posted real-time in the timestamp ##TheStrategyLab free chat room. You can read today's price action trading information about my trades (e.g. time, price entry, contract size, price exit) as the trade traversed to its completion. Also, sometimes I'll post real-time trading tips in ##TheStrategyLab chat room involving WRBs, WRB Hidden GAPs, Key Market Events (KME), Tutorial Chapters 2 & 3, WRB Zones, Reaction Highs/Lows, Contracting Volatility or Expanding Volatility. Its all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=154&t=2314

Quote:
All of my real-time posted trades involves price action concepts from the WRB Analysis free study guide, Advance WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 4 - 12 and the Volatility Trading Report (VTR) trade signal strategies. Analysis -----> Trade Signals

Also, posted below are direct links to information about my price action trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis). I'm primarily a day trader because it suits my personal lifestyle but I do occasionally swing trade and position trade. Simply, my trade method is applicable for position trading, swing trading and day trading.

Image ##TheStrategyLab Chat Room is free. Members and I use the chat room to post WRB Analysis commentary, real-time trades and to post anything else related to trading. The chat room helps me tremendously in my own trading because I use it to document (journal) general volatility analysis involving WRB Analysis so that I can easily review at a later date my thoughts as I interacted with the markets...info I can not get from my broker statements. Also, this is not a signal calling chat room where a head trader tells you when to buy or sell and I do not have the time/energy/resources to manage a signal calling chat room. Access instructions for chat room @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=164

Image Price Action Analysis via Advance WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=119&t=718

Analysis -----> Trade Signals

Image Trade Signal Strategies via Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our price action trade strategies with support (answering your questions) prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR). All WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1 - 12 are included in the purchase of the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Image Daily Trading Plan Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=285&t=3049 contains brief information about trading plan, market context, brokers, trading time frames, position size management and other discussions.

-----------------------------

Market Context Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, Briefing, Reuters and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED/ECB/BOE/IMF actions or any important global economic events (e.g. Eurozone, MarketWatch.com) that had an impact on today's price action in many trading instruments I monitor during the trading day. Simply, I'm a strong believer that key market events causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility resulting in trade opportunities (swing points and strong continuation price actions) that reach profit targets. Thus, I pay attention to these key market events, intermarket analysis (e.g. Forex EurUsd, EuroFX 6E futures, Gold GC futures, Light Crude Oil (WTI) CL & Brent Oil futures, Eurex DAX futures, Euronext FTSE100 futures, Emini ES futures, Emini TF futures, Treasury ZB futures and U.S. Dollar Index futures) while using WRB Analysis from one trade to the next trade to give me the market context for price action trading before the appearance of my technical analysis trade signals. Therefore, I maintain these archives to allow me to understand what was happening on any given trading day in the past involving key market events to help better understand my trade decisions (day trading, swing trading, position trading)...something I can not get from my broker statements alone. Further, most financial websites remove (delete) their archives after a few years to make room for new content. Therefore, I maintain my own archives of the news content so that I have it available for me when financial websites no longer archives their content.

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click on the above image to view today's price action of key markets


4:15 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The stock market ended its Wednesday affair broadly higher as the major indices rallied in response to the Federal Open Market Committee's policy statement for March. Other contributing factors to today's gain included a sharp uptick in oil prices and key sector leadership from the heavyweight technology sector (+1.1%). The Nasdaq Composite (+0.8%) ended its day ahead of both the S&P 500 (+0.6%) and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (+0.4%).

The first half of today's trade was a balancing act as investors weighed a hotter-than-expected core CPI reading (+0.3%; Briefing.com consensus +0.2%) against the impending rate decision from the FOMC. The concern was initially that the above-consensus data might support continued tightening. As a result, the benchmark index traded in a narrow six point range. Also of note, the financial sector (-0.2%) displayed some early strength, but the group slid down the leaderboard in the afternoon.

In the early afternoon, the latest directive from the FOMC provided enough dovish undertones to illicit a rally from the equity market. The FOMC voted 9-1 to leave its benchmark interest rates unchanged. Furthermore, the Fed lowered its target rate projection for 2016 to 0.875% from 1.40% and cut the 2017 outlook from 2.40% to 1.90%. This was essentially in-line with the projections in the fed funds futures market.

Eight of ten sectors ended the day in positive territory with commodity-sensitive materials (+1.7%) and energy (+1.6%) leading the pack, while influential technology (+1.1%) rounded out a distant third place. On the flipside, the heavyweight financial (-0.2%) and health care (-0.3%) sectors ended in the red.

The energy (+1.6%) space enjoyed a sharp rebound in oil prices as investors responded to smaller than expected builds in this week's American Petroleum Institute and Department of Energy stockpile reports. To be fair though, the energy component was also boosted by headlines that OPEC and non-OPEC members will meet in Qatar on April 17 to discuss a potential production cap agreement. WTI crude ended its pit session higher by 5.6% at $38.52/bbl.

Large-cap names saw increased interest following the FOMC's rate decision as investors demonstrated an increased appetite for risk. Heavily-weighted Microsoft (MSFT 54.35, +0.76) and Apple (AAPL 105.97, +1.39) ended near their highs with respective gains of 1.4% and 1.3%. Elsewhere, Oracle (ORCL 40.22, +1.48) gained 3.8% after beating bottom-line estimates in the third quarter and raising its fourth quarter earnings estimates above consensus.

The economically-sensitive financial (-0.2%) sector abandoned some early strength and tumbled to the bottom of the leaderboard by the end of the session. Money center banks bore the brunt of the decline as Wells Fargo (WFC 49.54, -0.44) and Citigroup (C 42.23, -0.36) ended lower by 0.9% apiece. The sub-group was likely responding to decreased earnings prospects in light of revisions to the Fed's projected rate hike path.

Biotechnology also abandoned some early strength, as the iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 250.20, -1.27) slipped 0.5% after showing a gain of 1.6% at the start of today's session. To be fair though, large cap constituents like Allergan (AGN 272.76, -10.24) and Dow component Pfizer (PFE 29.04, -0.50) also weighed on the sector. The health care space settled lower by 0.3%, extending this week's decline to 2.3%.

The Treasury complex slipped to session lows shortly after receiving the hotter-than-expected core CPI data and floated there until the FOMC'c policy statement was released.Treasuries rallied to new session highs following the policy statement, sending the 10-yr yield lower by six basis points to 1.91%.

The U.S. Dollar Index (95.67, -0.97) plunged as the greenback surrendered gains against both the yen and euro. The dollar/yen finished lower by 0.5% at 112.57 while the euro/dollar pair rose to 1.1225 (+1.1%).

Today's trading volume fell beneath the recent average as fewer than 913 million shares changed hands at the NYSE floor.

Today's data has included the weekly MBA Mortgage Index, February CPI /Core CPI, February Housing Starts, February Building Permit, February Industrial Production Report, Capacity Utilization:

The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) is going to give the Fed something extra to think about at today's meeting as it helped the argument for another rate hike, perhaps as early as the April meeting.
The point of debate won't be total CPI. It declined 0.2% in February as expected, driven lower by a 13.0% decline in the gasoline index that offset a 0.2% increase in the food index.
The main point of debate will be core CPI, which excludes food and energy. It rose 0.3% for the second straight month and is now up 2.3% year-over-year on an unadjusted basis.
The Fed has gotten tuned in more to core price trends based on its belief that the adverse impact of the decline in energy prices and the strong dollar is transitory.
Frankly, the February CPI report gives the Fed some data-based room to raise rates at today's meeting considering core CPI is now above the longer-run inflation target of 2.0% (to go along with a 4.9% unemployment rate) and knowing that the February uptick was spurred by price increases in almost all major components, namely shelter (+0.3%), apparel (+1.6%), and medical care (+0.5%).
At the least, this February CPI report could sway the FOMC to create an impression for the market that a rate hike at the April meeting is indeed a "live" possibility.
Housing starts were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.178 million in February (Briefing.com consensus 1.137 million), which was the highest rate since September and up 5.2% from an upwardly revised January rate of 1.120 million (from 1.099 million).
The Housing Starts report also provided some good news with respect to first quarter GDP forecasts. That good news was wrapped up in the number of homes under construction, which jumped to 987,000 from 978,000 in January. The first quarter average here is 983,000 versus the fourth quarter average of 962,000.
The increase in starts was powered by a 7.2% jump in single-family starts. The West region led the way there with a 24.8% increase in single-family starts.
Building permits dipped 3.1% to 1.167 million (Briefing.com consensus 1.204 million) due entirely to an 8.4% drop in permits for multi-unit buildings. Single-family permits were up 0.4%.
Industrial production declined 0.5% in February (Briefing.com consensus -0.3%) after increasing a downwardly revised 0.8% in January (from 0.9%). on a year-over-year basis, industrial production is down 1.0%.
The downturn in February was fueled by large declines in the indexes for utilities (-4.0%) and mining (-1.4%). The former was the result of unseasonably warm weather, which lowered the demand for heating, while the latter was a byproduct of decreases in crude oil extraction, coal mining, and oil and gas well drilling and servicing.
The silver lining in the report is that manufacturing output increased 0.2% on top of a 0.5% increase in January. That uptick was led by a 0.4% increase for durable manufacturing, which offset a 0.1% decrease for nondurable manufacturing. Total manufacturing output was up 1.8% year-over-year.
With less demand for heating, total capacity utilization slipped to 76.7% from 77.1% in January.
The capacity utilization rate for utilities fell to 74.8% from 78.0%. Manufacturing capacity utilization was unchanged at 76.1%, which is 2.4 percentage points below its long-run average.

Tomorrow's data will include weekly initial claims (Briefing.com consensus 266k), March Philadelphia Fed Survey (Briefing.com consensus -1.4), and Q4 Current Account Balance (Briefing.com consensus -$116.0 Billion) each crossing the wires at 8:30 ET. Meanwhile February's Leading Indicators (Briefing.com consensus 0.2%) will be reported at 10:00 ET.

3:35 pm: [BRIEFING.COM]

Select commodities rallied and the dollar index fell sharply following the Fed announcement
The dollar index fell back below 96.00 and is now -1% at 95.68
Precious metals closed today's floor session modestly lower. Apr gold ended -0.1% at $1229.90/oz, while May silver was -0.3% at $15.22/oz
However, this was before the Fed announcement
Apr gold is now +2.4% at $1260.60/oz and May silver is +2.4% at $15.63/oz in electronic trade
Apr crude oil remains near today's HoD in electronic trade. In its floor session, Apr crude finished +5.6% at $38.52/barrel.
In electronic trade, Apr crude is at $38.46/barrel
In other energy, Apr natural gas gained 1.1% to $1.87/MMBtu

3:05 pm:

[BRIEFING.COM] As the stock market enters its final hour of trade, the major averages hover below fresh session highs. The S&P 500 (+0.4%) trades behind the tech-heavy Nasdaq (+0.5%), but the benchmark index has climbed 20 points off its worst level of the day.

Eight of ten sectors trade in positive territory with materials (+1.7%) and energy (+1.6%) showing the largest gains. Conversely, health care (-0.3%) and financials (-0.1%) show the only losses.

In the heavyweight financial sector, money center banks display relative weakness as Bank of America (BAC 13.33, -0.23) and Citigroup (C 42.28, -0.31) show respective losses of 2.0% and 0.8%. The two names plunged following the FOMC announcement, which featured a lowered projected rate hike path than what was previously expected. According to the Fed's dot plot, policymakers expect the fed funds rate at the end of 2017 to be at 1.9%, which is down from the 2.4% forecast at the December meeting.

On the commodities front, WTI crude ended its day higher by 6.0% at $38.52/bbl while gold ended lower by 0.1% at $1,229.90/ozt. However, the yellow metal has surged to 1,259.60/ozt (+2.4%) in electronic trade after the Fed statement.

2:35 pm:

[BRIEFING.COM] The stock market saw a spike to new highs immediately after the Federal Open Market Committee voted to leave the fed funds rate unchanged. The Nasdaq (+0.6%) trades ahead of the S&P 500 (+0.5%) and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (+0.5%).

The latest directive from the FOMC struck a dovish tone as the committee left the fed funds rate unchanged at 0.25%-0.50%. The FOMC said risks from global economic and financial developments have contributed to today's decision. The Fed lowered its target rate projection for 2016 to 0.90% from 1.40% and for 2017 from 2.40% to 1.90%, implying that it expects 50 basis points less of potential tightening in those years than it previously thought in December.

Following the announcement, the financial sector (-0.2%) slid to new lows and currently trades near health care (-0.4%) on the bottom of the leaderboard.

The U.S. Dollar Index (96.04, -0.59) tumbled after the news as the greenback abandoned gains against the yen and euro. The dollar yen trades lower by 0.3% at 112.85 while the euro/dollar pair trades 1.1175 (+0.6%).

The Treasury complex rallied to session highs as the yield on the 10-yr note tumbled five basis points to 1.92%.

Fed Chair Yellen is scheduled to begin her press conference momentarily.

1:55 pm:

[BRIEFING.COM] The major averages hover above session lows as the S&P 500 (-0.2%) trades in-line with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (-0.2%).

Technology (+0.2%) sports the largest gain of the day while energy (+0.2%) and materials (UNCH) have recently rejoined the top-weighted sector in positive territory.

In the consumer discretionary space (-0.1%), media companies demonstrate relative strength as the sub-group moves higher in sympathy with Time Warner Cable (TWC 201.06, +5.38). Time Warner Cable has climbed 2.8% after reports indicated that the company's merger with Charter Communications (CHTR 195.22, +8.29) is set to be approved by the Federal Communications Commission. Additionally, CBS (CBS 53.81, +1.22) has jumped 2.3% after receiving a price target upgrade at Jefferies from $56 to $60.

In Treasuries, the yield on the 10-yr note floats at its session high of 1.99% (+2 bps).

The Federal Open Market Committee's March policy statement is set to be released momentarily and we will bring highlights from that policy statement in our next update.

1:35 pm:

[BRIEFING.COM] The major U.S. indices continue to drift lower ahead of the impending Fed decision at the bottom of the hour.

A look inside the Dow Jones Industrial Average shows that Pfizer (PFE 28.99, -0.55), Merck & Co (MRK 51.65, -0.77), and Coca-Cola (KO 44.70, -0.54) are underperforming. Pfizer and Merck are the Dow's biggest laggard as they trade in tandem with the entire health care sector, today's worst performing space. Coke on the other hand is under pressure, alongside other soft drink names after the UK, in today's annual budget release, announced it would institute a new industry levy on soft drinks.

Conversely, Apple (AAPL 105.29, +.71) is the best performing Dow component as shares extend this week's winning streak.

Ahead of the Fed's rate decision, the DJIA is flat for the week.

1:10 pm:

[BRIEFING.COM] The stock market trades on a flat note as investors await this afternoon's decision from the Federal Open Market Committee. Other story lines in today's action have included a hotter-than-expected reading of February's core CPI (+0.3%; Briefing.com consensus +0.2%), a rebound in crude oil, and the outperformance of the technology sector (+0.2%). Currently, the tech-heavy Nasdaq (-0.1%) trades ahead of both the S&P 500 (-0.1%), and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (UNCH).

Investors received a better-than-expected core CPI reading this morning, which may lend itself as some data-based support for the Fed's case to continue tightening this year. As a result, futures slipped to their session lows ahead of the open in the cash market. To be fair, the fed funds futures market remains convinced that there will be no rate hike announced today.

Meanwhile, some smaller-than-expected builds in the American Petroleum Institute's and Department of Energy's crude inventory reports have helped oil rebound. Additionally, overnight it was reported that OPEC and non-OPEC members are prepared to meet on April 17 in Qatar to discuss the potential production cap agreement. As a result, WTI crude trades higher by 4.2% at $37.87/bbl.

Five sectors currently trade in the green with commodity-sensitive energy (+0.3%) and heavily-weighted technology (+0.2%) leading the pack. Meanwhile, the countercyclical sectors underperform with utilities (-0.6%), consumer staples (-0.6%), and health care (-0.7%) leading the downside.

In the energy space (+0.3%), independent oil and gas names and pipeline companies look to rebound from their recent downturn. On that note, Kinder Morgan (KMI 18.84, +0.77) and Williams Companies (WMB 17.14, +0.99) have gained 4.3% and 6.1%, respectively.

The influential tech space (+0.2%) has benefited from a continued rally in heavy-weight constituent Apple (AAPL 105.46, +0.88). The company has climbed 4.0% on a week-to-date basis, compared to the 0.7% gain in the broader sector. Separately, Oracle (ORCL 39.92, +1.18) has gained 3.1% after reporting bottom-line result above analysts estimates and raising its fourth quarter earnings estimates above-consensus.

Economically-sensitive financials (-0.1%) initially outperformed on the heels of the hotter than expected core CPI figure. The broader sector would benefit from higher rates as banks' earnings potential would increase. However, the sector now underperforms with real estate trusts leading to the downside.

Similarly, health care (-0.7%) initially outperformed as biotechnology attempted to rebound from yesterday's selloff. The iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 249.07, -2.39) surrendered a 1.6% gain and now trades lower by 1.0%. To be fair though, large cap constituents such as Pfizer (PFE 28.99, -0.55) also weigh on the sector. Pfizer is currently the worst performer in the Dow Jones.

The Treasury complex trades broadly lower after slipping from its highs before today's session. On that note, the yield on the 10-yr note is higher by two basis points at 1.99%.

The U.S. Dollar Index (96.86, +0.23) has ticked down in recent action as the euro and yen trim their losses. The euro/dollar pair trades at 1.1085 (-0.2%) after climbing off a low of 1.1059. Separately, the dollar/yen slipped off its high of 113.78, narrowing its gain to 0.4% at 113.65.

Today's data has included the weekly MBA Mortgage Index, February CPI /Core CPI, February Housing Starts, February Building Permit, February Industrial Production Report, and Capacity Utilization:

The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) is going to give the Fed something extra to think about at today's meeting as it helped the argument for another rate hike, perhaps as early as the April meeting.
The point of debate won't be total CPI. It declined 0.2% in February as expected, driven lower by a 13.0% decline in the gasoline index that offset a 0.2% increase in the food index.
The main point of debate will be core CPI, which excludes food and energy. It rose 0.3% for the second straight month and is now up 2.3% year-over-year on an unadjusted basis.
The Fed has gotten tuned in more to core price trends based on its belief that the adverse impact of the decline in energy prices and the strong dollar is transitory.
Frankly, the February CPI report gives the Fed some data-based room to raise rates at today's meeting considering core CPI is now above the longer-run inflation target of 2.0% (to go along with a 4.9% unemployment rate) and knowing that the February uptick was spurred by price increases in almost all major components, namely shelter (+0.3%), apparel (+1.6%), and medical care (+0.5%).
At the least, this February CPI report could sway the FOMC to create an impression for the market that a rate hike at the April meeting is indeed a "live" possibility.
Housing starts were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.178 million in February (Briefing.com consensus 1.137 million), which was the highest rate since September and up 5.2% from an upwardly revised January rate of 1.120 million (from 1.099 million).
The Housing Starts report also provided some good news with respect to first quarter GDP forecasts. That good news was wrapped up in the number of homes under construction, which jumped to 987,000 from 978,000 in January. The first quarter average here is 983,000 versus the fourth quarter average of 962,000.
The increase in starts was powered by a 7.2% jump in single-family starts. The West region led the way there with a 24.8% increase in single-family starts.
Building permits dipped 3.1% to 1.167 million (Briefing.com consensus 1.204 million) due entirely to an 8.4% drop in permits for multi-unit buildings. Single-family permits were up 0.4%.
Industrial production declined 0.5% in February (Briefing.com consensus -0.3%) after increasing a downwardly revised 0.8% in January (from 0.9%). on a year-over-year basis, industrial production is down 1.0%.
The downturn in February was fueled by large declines in the indexes for utilities (-4.0%) and mining (-1.4%). The former was the result of unseasonably warm weather, which lowered the demand for heating, while the latter was a byproduct of decreases in crude oil extraction, coal mining, and oil and gas well drilling and servicing.
The silver lining in the report is that manufacturing output increased 0.2% on top of a 0.5% increase in January. That uptick was led by a 0.4% increase for durable manufacturing, which offset a 0.1% decrease for nondurable manufacturing. Total manufacturing output was up 1.8% year-over-year.
With less demand for heating, total capacity utilization slipped to 76.7% from 77.1% in January.
The capacity utilization rate for utilities fell to 74.8% from 78.0%. Manufacturing capacity utilization was unchanged at 76.1%, which is 2.4 percentage points below its long-run average.

Meanwhile, the Fed's latest policy statement will be released at 14:00 ET and the subsequent press conference will take place at 14:30 ET.

12:30 pm:

[BRIEFING.COM] The major U.S. indices continue to hold their ground in the upper half of their trading ranges. The S&P 500 (+0.1%) trails the Nasdaq Composite (+0.3%).

In the Dow Jones Transportation Average (UNCH) freight carriers demonstrate relative weakness ahead of FedEx's (FDX 142.53, -0.53) third quarter earnings report, which will be released after today's close. Separately, the major airlines outperform with United Continental (UAL 58.48, +0.43) and Delta Airlines (DAL 48.32, +0.56) climbing a respective 0.7% and 1.2%.

In the broader industrial sector, large cap constituents General Electric (GE 30.15, -0.12) and Danaher (DHR 91.08, -0.63) have declined 0.4% and 0.7%, respectively.

The U.S. Dollar Index (96.94, +0.30) has slipped in recent trade as the euro and yen trim their losses. The euro/dollar pair trades at 1.1083 (-0.2%) after ticking off a low of 1.1059. Separately, the dollar/yen slipped off its high of 113.78, narrowing its gain to 0.4% at 113.67.

12:00 pm:

[BRIEFING.COM] The stock market has ticked lower since the last update as the S&P 500 (UNCH) hovers three points off its session high.

The heavily-weighted technology space (+0.4%) has ticked past the financial (+0.2%) to trade in-line with energy (+0.4%) sectors on the top of the leaderboard.

In the influential tech space, Oracle (ORCL 40.27, +1.53) outperforms after reporting a bottom-line beat for its third quarter and offering above-consensus guidance for the fourth quarter. Meanwhile, large cap Apple (AAPL 105.33, +0.75) continues its recent rally, as it gains 0.8%. On a week-to-date basis the stock has gained 3.9%, compared to the 0.9% gain in the broader sector. Elsewhere, the high-beta chipmakers continue their recent streak of underperformance as the PHLX Semiconductor index sheds 0.2%. The index has lost 0.7% week-to-date.

The Treasury complex has ticked off its session low with the yield on the 10-yr note now higher by one basis point at 1.98%.

11:30 am:

[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (+0.1%) and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (+0.1%) trade neck-and-neck, floating just below their session highs.

The six cyclical sector all trade in the green with advances between 0.1% (materials) and 0.8% (energy). Meanwhile, all four countercyclicals navigate under their flat lines. Utilities (-0.8%) and consumer staples (-0.6%) sport the largest losses.

The health care group (-0.3%) began its day above its flat line as biotechnology rebounded from yesterday's selloff. However, since the opening hour, the iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 251.75, -0.28) has trimmed its advance from 1.6% to 0.1%. Separately,, heavily-weighted components like Allergan (AGN 277.08, -5.92) and Dow component Pfizer (PFE 29.21, -0.33) weigh on the sector. The two names have surrendered 2.1% and 1.2% respectively. Additionally, Pfizer is the second worst performed in the price-weighted index.

The U.S. Dollar Index (97.00, +0.37) trades broadly higher as the yen and the euro sport moderate losses against the greenback. The euro/dollar pair trades lower by 0.4% at 1.1065 after tumbling from the 1.1098 level. Meanwhile, the dollar/yen pair floats at 113.72 after climbing off its low of 113.48.

11:00 am:

[BRIEFING.COM] The major averages hover just below their session highs with the S&P 500 (+0.1%) bouncing around a six-point range.

Commodity-sensitive energy (+0.6%) and materials (+0.3%) have moved higher in recent action as the heavyweight financial sector (+0.3%) follows them on the leaderboard. The move higher in all three sectors followed the Department of Energy's weekly inventory report, which showed that crude inventories grew by only 1.32 million barrels compared to the consensus estimate of 3.41 million barrels. WTI crude hovers near a session high of $37.66/bbl (+3.6%).

The economically-sensitive financial sector (+0.4%) has outperformed today as the space responds to an above-consensus reading of February's core CPI. The hotter-than-expected result showed that core CPI has increased to 2.3% on a year-over-year basis. Core CPI excludes both food and energy, but can be seen as a supportive data point given the Fed's belief that declining oil prices and the strong dollar are both transitory. Meanwhile, strength in the sector is broad based with money center banks, insurance companies, and investment brokerages all climbing.

10:35 am: [BRIEFING.COM]

Oil prices began to climb higher late yesterday following the weekly API oil storage data, which showed a build that was smaller than the prior week's build
In morning trade, Apr crude oil extended gains and rose as high as $37.80/barrel ahead of the EIA data
Following the data, Apr crude oil is +3.1% at $37.45/barrel
Natural gas lost steam this morning, hitting a new LoD in recent trade at $1.82/MMBtu
Apr nat gas is now -0.4% at $1.84/MMBtu
Despite strength in the dollar index this morning (now +0.4%), gold and silver futures moved back into positive territory in recent trade
Apr gold is now +0.1% at $1232.60/oz, while May silver is +0.3% at $15.30/oz
May copper is currently +0.3% at $2.24/lb

10:00 am:

[BRIEFING.COM] The major averages have ticked off their opening lows as the S&P 500 (UNCH) trades four points off its opening low. Separately, the Nasdaq Composite (+0.2%) modestly outperforms.

Seven sectors trade above their flat lines as the heavily-weighted financial sector (+0.2%) and technology (+0.2%) sectors now follows energy (+0.5%) on the top of the leader board.

In the commodity-sensitive energy space (+0.5%), pipeline companies and oil and gas names look to rebound from their recent declines as a rally in crude oil pushes the sector to the top of the leaderboard. Currently, WTI crude trades higher by 2.8% at $37.37/bbl. The energy component received a boost from some headlines overnight, as OPEC and non-OPEC producers agreed to meet in Qatar on April 17 to discuss a supply cap agreement. The meeting is not dependent upon Iran's attendance. Meanwhile, the American Petroleum Institute's weekly inventory report showed a smaller than expected build in crude stock piles. Investors look ahead to the Department of Energy's 10:30 ET inventory, which is expected to show a build of 3.41 million barrels in crude stockpiles.

9:45 am:

[BRIEFING.COM] As expected, the major averages began their day on a lower note as the Nasdaq Composite (-0.1%) trades in-line with the S&P 500 (-0.1%).

Five of ten sector began their day in negative territory while commodity-sensitive energy (+0.9%) and materials (+0.1%) displays the largest advances of the day. Meanwhile, heavyweight technology (UNCH) and financials (UNCH) flirt with their respective flat lines. The countercyclical sectors show the largest opening losses with telecom services (-0.4%), consumer staples (-0.5%), and utilities (-0.8%) leading the downside. The market looks ahead to the Fed's latest policy statement at 14:00 ET and the subsequent press conference at 14:30 ET.

On the commodities front, WTI crude has climbed 3.2% to trade at $37.52/bbl while gold abandoned an early uptick. The precious metal trades lower by 0.2% at $1,229.30/ozt.

The Treasury complex trades broadly lower with the yield on the 10-yr note rising two basis points to 1.99%.

9:20 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -6.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -9.90.

The stock market is on track for a modestly lower open as S&P 500 futures trade seven points below fair value.

Ahead of today's session, oil offered some support to the broader market as the commodity responded to a smaller than expected build reported in the American Petroleum Institute's weekly inventory report. Separately, OPEC and non-OPEC states agreed to meet with or without Iran to discuss a potential production freeze agreement on April 17. As a result, WTI crude trades higher by 2.3% at $37.18/bbl. To be fair though, futures and oil moved off their best levels as investors ruminated over a hotter-than-expected reading of core CPI in February (+0.3%; Briefing.com consensus +0.2%). This positive inflation data point was released as investors look forward to the Federal Open Market Committee's March policy statement, which will be released at 14:00 ET.

On the currency front, the greenback moved to its best level against the euro and yen following the release of core CPI data. The euro/dollar pair trades at 1.1067 (-0.4%) after falling from the 1.1099 level after the data. Meanwhile, the dollar/yen pair has risen 0.4% to 113.61. The yen felt pressure overnight after comments from Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda alluded to possible future easing and potentially lowering the bank's main interest rate further into negative territory.

In U.S. corporate news of note, Time Warner Cable (TWC 197.87, +2.19) is trading higher by 1.1% amid reports that the Federal Communications Commission is likely to approve the company's merger with Charter Communications (CHTR 186.93, +0.00). Separately, Oracle (ORCL 40.10, +1.36) has gained 3.2% after reporting above-consensus bottom-line results and adding $10 billion to its stock buyback program.

Just released, Industrial Production report pointed to a decrease of 0.5% in February (Briefing.com consensus +0.3%) while capacity utilization hit 76.7% (Briefing.com consensus 76.9%).

8:58 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -6.70. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -11.60.

The S&P 500 futures trade seven points below fair value.

Equity markets in the Asia-Pacific region ended Wednesday on a mixed note with anticipation rising ahead of today's FOMC rate decision. In Japan, the Nikkei (-0.8%) ended in the red and the yen stumbled against the dollar after Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said the central bank is ready to implement more easing and that it is theoretically possible to lower the bank's main interest rate to -0.5%. Recall that Monday's policy statement from the BoJ did not discuss taking rates deeper into negative territory.

In economic data:
South Korea's February Unemployment Rate 4.1% (expected 3.8%; last 3.5%)
Australia's MI Leading Index -0.2% month-over-month (previous 0.1%)
New Zealand's Q4 Current Account -NZD7.71 billion year-over-year (expected -NZD7.90 billion; previous -NZD8.10 billion)

---Equity Markets---

Japan's Nikkei lost 0.8% amid weakness in nine of ten sectors. The decline was paced by financials (-1.9%), utilities (-1.8%), and health care (-1.4%) while consumer staples (+0.3%) outperformed. Chiba Bank, Shizuoka Bank, Bank of Yokohama, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial, Dai-ichi Life Insurance, and Mizuho Financial lost between 3.1% and 4.4%.
Hong Kong's Hang Seng shed 0.2% with more than half components ending in the red. Li & Fung led the retreat, falling 2.6%, while energy-related names like Petrochina, China Resources Power, Kunlun Energy, China Shenhua Energy, and CNOOC lost between 1.4% and 2.3%.
China's Shanghai Composite added 0.2%. Bank of China, Agricultural Bank of China, and China Minsheng Banking Corporation posted gains between 1.8% and 2.9%.

Major European indices trade near their flat lines ahead of the FOMC March policy statement. Germany's DAX (UNCH) has shown some relative strength in the early going, but has retreated to its flat line in recent action. The euro has slipped 0.2% against the dollar to 1.1085.

Economic data was limited:
UK's January Average Earnings Index + Bonus +2.1% (expected 2.0%; last 1.9%), February Claimant Count Change -18,000 (expected -9,100; previous -28,400), and January Unemployment Rate held at 5.1%, as expected

---Equity Markets---

Germany's DAX trades flat with exporters in the lead. BMW, Daimler, Volkswagen, and Continental are up between 1.5% and 3.4%. Financials have not been able to keep pace with the broader market as Commerzbank and Deutsche Bank show respective losses of 1.0% and 3.3%.
UK's FTSE is unchanged with miners and energy-related names pacing the slight advance. Fresnillo, Glencore, Anglo American, Royal Dutch Shell, and BP have climbed between 1.4% and 1.9%. Homebuilders have also shown relative strength with Taylor Wimpey and Barratt Developments both up near 1.5%.
France's CAC is down 0.4% while heavyweights Safran, Renault, Michelin, and Peugeot lead with gains between 1.3% and 2.0% while financials lag. BNP Paribas, Credit Agricole, and Societe Generale have given up between 0.8% and 1.3%.

8:33 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -2.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -0.50.

The S&P 500 futures trade two points below fair value.

Total CPI dipped to -0.2% (Briefing.com consensus -0.2%) in February while core CPI, which excludes food and energy, increased 0.3% (Briefing.com consensus +0.1%). On a year-over-year basis, total CPI is up 1.0% and core CPI is up 2.3%.

Separately, Housing starts rose to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 1.178 million units in February, which was up from a revised 1.120 million units in January (from 1.099 million). The Briefing.com consensus expected starts to increase to 1.137 million units. Building permits decreased to a seasonally adjusted 1.167 million in February from an unrevised 1.204 million for January. The Briefing.com consensus expected a reading of 1.204 million.

8:05 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -1.10. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +1.80.

U.S. equity futures hover above overnight lows as the S&P 500 futures trade one point below fair value.

Overnight, U.S. equity futures moved higher with oil as the commodity rebounded following the release of the latest American Petroleum Institute's inventory report. The report showed a smaller than expected build in crude stockpiles. Separately, OPEC and non-OPEC members agreed to meet in Qatar on April 17 to discuss a supply freeze. Meanwhile, futures have taken a defensive posture ahead of a data heavy day that includes the latest rate decision from the Federal Open Market Committee. On that note, futures have slipped from their highs as the Treasury complex now trades broadly higher. The yield on the 10-yr note has slipped two basis points to 1.95%.

The Treasury complex trades broadly higher with the yield on the 10-yr note slipping two basis points to 1.95%.

On the economic front, the weekly MBA Mortgage Index was reported at 7:00 ET and showed a seasonally adjusted down tick of 3.3%. Meanwhile, February CPI (Briefing.com consensus -0.2%) and Core CPI (Briefing.com consensus +0.1%), February Housing Starts (Briefing.com consensus 1137k), and February Building Permits (Briefing.com consensus 1204k) will be released at 8:30 ET. Separately, the February Industrial Production Report (Briefing.com consensus -0.3%) and Capacity Utilization (Briefing.com consensus 76.9%) will cross the wires at 9:15 ET. The day's data will be capped off with the FOMCs March rate decision, which will be announced at 14:00 ET.

In U.S. corporate news of note:

Oracle (ORCL 40.30, +1.56): +4.0% after reporting an earnings beat on lighter than expected revenue and authorizing the repurchase of $10 billion worth of common stock
LinkedIn (LNKD 110.77, -4.81): -4.2% following a downgrade at Morgan Stanley from "Overweight" to "Equal-Weight"
Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG 477.67, -25.33):-5.0% after disclosing February comparable sales rose to (26.1%) from (36.4%) in January, and estimating that first quarter earnings will result in a $1.00 per share loss

Reviewing overnight developments:

Asian markets ended their day on a mixed note with Japan's Nikkei -0.8%,Hong Kong's Hang Seng -0.2%, and China's Shanghai Composite +0.2%.
In economic data:
South Korea's February Unemployment Rate 4.1% (expected 3.8%; last 3.5%)
Australia's MI Leading Index -0.2% month-over-month (previous 0.1%)
New Zealand's Q4 Current Account -NZD7.71 billion year-over-year (expected -NZD7.90 billion; previous -NZD8.10 billion)
In news:
Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said the central bank is ready to implement more easing and that it is theoretically possible to lower the bank's main interest rate to -0.5%.
The yen stumbled against the dollar and the dollar/yen pair currently trades at 113.52 (+0.3%)

European indices hover near their flat liens with Germany's DAX +0.3%, the U.K.'s FTSE +0.1%, and France's CAC -0.2%.
Economic data was limited:
UK's January Average Earnings Index + Bonus +2.1% (expected 2.0%; last 1.9%), February Claimant Count Change -18,000 (expected -9,100; previous -28,400), and January Unemployment Rate held at 5.1%, as expected

5:56 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +2.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +6.80.

5:56 am: [BRIEFING.COM] Nikkei...16974.5...-142.60...-0.80%. Hang Seng...20257.7...-31.10...-0.20%.

5:56 am: [BRIEFING.COM] FTSE...6155.24...+15.30...+0.30%. DAX...10008.50...+74.70...+0.80%.

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader Image@ http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader

http://www.thestrategylab.com
Phone: +1 708 572-4885
Business Hours: 8am - 5pm est (Mon - Fri)
Skype Messenger: kebec2002
wrbanalysis@gmail.com


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