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 Post subject: March 4th Friday Trade Results - Profit $4375.00
PostPosted: Fri Mar 04, 2016 6:08 pm 
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Joined: Sat Jan 10, 2009 2:06 pm
Posts: 4335
Location: Canada
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Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
Phone: +1 708 572-4885
Free Chat Room: http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=164
Business Hours: 8am - 5pm est (Mon - Fri)
wrbanalysis@gmail.com (24/7)
http://twitter.com/wrbtrader (24/7)

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click on the above image to view today's performance verification

Price Action Trade Performance for Today: Emini TF ($TF_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.00 points, Emini ES ($ES_F) futures @ $4375.00 dollars or +87.50 points, Light Crude Oil CL ($CL_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.00 points, Gold GC ($GC_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.00 points and EuroFX 6E ($6E_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.0000 ticks. Total Profit @ $4375.00 dollars

Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures: 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures: 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup
Light Crude Oil CL (WTI) Futures: 1 tick or 0.01 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup
Gold GC Futures: 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup
EuroFX 6E Futures: 1 tick or 0.0001 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup

Trade Log: All of my trades were posted real-time in the timestamp ##TheStrategyLab free chat room. You can read today's price action trading information about my trades (e.g. time, price entry, contract size, price exit) as the trade traversed to its completion. Also, sometimes I'll post real-time trading tips in ##TheStrategyLab chat room involving WRBs, WRB Hidden GAPs, Key Market Events (KME), Tutorial Chapters 2 & 3, WRB Zones, Reaction Highs/Lows, Contracting Volatility or Expanding Volatility. Its all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=154&t=2306

Quote:
All of my real-time posted trades involves price action concepts from the WRB Analysis free study guide, Advance WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 4 - 12 and the Volatility Trading Report (VTR) trade signal strategies. Analysis -----> Trade Signals

Also, posted below are direct links to information about my price action trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis). I'm primarily a day trader because it suits my personal lifestyle but I do occasionally swing trade and position trade. Simply, my trade method is applicable for position trading, swing trading and day trading.

Image ##TheStrategyLab Chat Room is free. Members and I use the chat room to post WRB Analysis commentary, real-time trades and to post anything else related to trading. The chat room helps me tremendously in my own trading because I use it to document (journal) general volatility analysis involving WRB Analysis so that I can easily review at a later date my thoughts as I interacted with the markets...info I can not get from my broker statements. Also, this is not a signal calling chat room where a head trader tells you when to buy or sell and I do not have the time/energy/resources to manage a signal calling chat room. Access instructions for chat room @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=164

Image Price Action Analysis via Advance WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=119&t=718

Analysis -----> Trade Signals

Image Trade Signal Strategies via Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our price action trade strategies with support (answering your questions) prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR). All WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1 - 12 are included in the purchase of the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Image Daily Trading Plan Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=285&t=3049 contains brief information about trading plan, market context, brokers, trading time frames, position size management and other discussions.

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Market Context Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, Briefing, Reuters and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED/ECB/BOE/IMF actions or any important global economic events (e.g. Eurozone, MarketWatch.com) that had an impact on today's price action in many trading instruments I monitor during the trading day. Simply, I'm a strong believer that key market events causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility resulting in trade opportunities (swing points and strong continuation price actions) that reach profit targets. Thus, I pay attention to these key market events, intermarket analysis (e.g. Forex EurUsd, EuroFX 6E futures, Gold GC futures, Light Crude Oil (WTI) CL & Brent Oil futures, Eurex DAX futures, Euronext FTSE100 futures, Emini ES futures, Emini TF futures, Treasury ZB futures and U.S. Dollar Index futures) while using WRB Analysis from one trade to the next trade to give me the market context for price action trading before the appearance of my technical analysis trade signals. Therefore, I maintain these archives to allow me to understand what was happening on any given trading day in the past involving key market events to help better understand my trade decisions (day trading, swing trading, position trading)...something I can not get from my broker statements alone. Further, most financial websites remove (delete) their archives after a few years to make room for new content. Therefore, I maintain my own archives of the news content so that I have it available for me when financial websites no longer archives their content.

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click on the above image to view today's price action of key markets


4:25 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The stock market ended an upbeat week on a wobbly note. The S&P 500 added 0.3% after being up 0.8% going into the late afternoon. Despite the late slip from session highs, the benchmark index still registered its third consecutive weekly advance, climbing 2.7% since last Friday.

Today's session featured something for fans of symmetry as stocks started and ended the trading day on a shaky note. The volatile action occurred in the wake of a February Employment Situation Report that left participants wondering what to make of it. On one hand, the report pointed to strong headline growth in payrolls (242,000; Briefing.com consensus 190,000), but on the other hand, average hourly earnings decreased 0.1% (Briefing.com consensus 0.2%), dropping the annualized earnings growth rate to 2.2% year-over-year from 2.5% that was observed in January. This puts the rate back in a lackluster range that has held for years and has negative implications for consumer spending.

That view likely bolstered the market's belief that a surprise rate hike in March is off the table, inviting an intraday rally in stocks. However, this argument gets a bit fuzzier when taking into account today's upward revision to Atlanta Fed's GDPNow forecast for the first quarter, which was raised to 2.2% from 1.9% on March 1. The Atlanta Fed pointed to an increase in expectations for real consumer spending growth (to +3.3% from +3.1%) as the main reason for the improved outlook.

Furthermore, shortly after the jobs report was released, the fed funds futures market saw a shift in the belly of the expectations curve, briefly signaling a 50.1% chance of a rate hike at the September meeting. The curve receded a bit since the morning with the market, at day's end, expecting a 52.0% chance of a hike in November and a 48.9% chance of a move in September. On Monday, the fed funds futures market saw December as the first month entering into the rate hike conversation with the probability of a hike at the corresponding policy meeting running at 54.4%.

Interestingly, the afternoon slide that cut the market's gain in half occurred near the 100-day moving average (1999.8) in the S&P 500 as the index tried to register its first close above that mark since December 31. The benchmark average settled just above that level (by 0.18!) after spiking off its 50-day moving average (1940.5) on Tuesday.

Seven sectors ended the day with gains, paced by materials (+1.2%), utilities (+1.2%), energy (+0.9%), and financials (+0.4%). On the flip side, health care (-0.2%) and consumer discretionary (UNCH) lagged throughout the day while technology (+0.4%) ended just ahead of the broader market as relative strength in chipmakers helped mask some weakness among select top-weighted components. Alphabet (GOOGL 730.22, -1.37), Microsoft (MSFT 52.03, -0.32), and Facebook (FB 108.39, -1.19) lost between 0.2% and 1.1% while the PHLX Semiconductor Index (+1.1%) outperformed after Wells Fargo upgraded the chipmaker sector to 'Overweight.'

On the earnings front, SOX index component Broadcom (AVGO 146.06, +8.73) surged 6.4% in reaction to better than expected results.

The Friday advance in equities was accompanied by selling in the Treasury market. The 10-yr note ended off its low with its yield up five basis points at 1.88% after testing the 1.90% mark. Today's volatility invited increased volume as more than 1.35 billion shares changed hands at the NYSE floor.

Economic data included the Employment Situation Report and Trade Balance:

Nonfarm payrolls increased by 242,000 (Briefing.com consensus 190,000) and Private sector payrolls increased by 230,000 (Briefing.com consensus 180,000)
January nonfarm payrolls revised to 172,000 from 151,000 and January private sector payrolls revised to 182,000 from 158,000
Unemployment rate was 4.9% (Briefing.com consensus 4.9%) versus 4.9% in January
The U6 unemployment rate, which accounts for the total unemployed plus persons marginally attached to the labor force and the underemployed, was 9.7% versus 9.9% in January
Persons unemployed for 27 weeks or more accounted for 27.7% of the unemployed versus 26.9% in January
January average hourly earnings were down 0.1% (Briefing.com consensus 0.2%) after being up 0.5% in January
Over the last 12 months, average hourly earnings have risen 2.2% versus 2.5% in January
The average workweek declined 0.2 to 34.4 hours (Briefing.com consensus 34.6)
February manufacturing workweek was unchanged at 40.8 hours
Factory overtime was 3.3 hours for the third month in a row
The labor force participation rate was 62.9% versus 62.7% in January
The January Trade Balance report showed a widening in the deficit to $45.7 billion (Briefing.com consensus -$44.0 bln) from a downwardly revised deficit of $44.7 billion (from -$43.4 bln) for December
Exports were down $3.8 billion from December while imports were down $2.8 billion.

Monday's data will be limited to the 15:00 ET release of the January Consumer Credit report (Briefing.com consensus $16.50 billion).

S&P 500 -2.2% YTD
Dow Jones Industrial Average -2.4% YTD
Russell 2000 -4.8% YTD
Nasdaq -5.8% YTD

Week in Review: Three in a Row

The stock market enjoyed its third consecutive week of gains that put the S&P 500 back above its 100-day moving average (1999.8) for the first time since late December. The benchmark index spiked 2.7% for the week, extending its three-week run to 7.3% while the Nasdaq outperformed, climbing 2.8% this week and 8.8% over the past three weeks.

U.S. equity indices soared alongside their counterparts in Japan (+5.2%), Hong Kong (+4.2%), China (+3.9%), Germany (+3.3%), and France (+3.3%) during what was a bit of a peculiar week. Specifically, the week started amid rising stimulus hopes after disappointing manufacturing data from China reinforced expectations for a global slowdown, but as the week continued, the attitude went from "worse than expected" to "better than feared," essentially leaving a bad-is-good (more stimulus) and good-is-good (more growth) dynamic in place. This idea was on full display on Friday when investors received a February Employment Situation Report, which showed a surprising divergence. Namely, nonfarm payrolls increased by a healthy 242,000 (Briefing.com consensus 190,000) with upward revisions to January and December, but February average hourly earnings were down 0.1% (Briefing.com consensus 0.2%) after being up 0.5% in January.

At first glance, the decline in average hourly earnings should be viewed as something that may detract the Fed from raising rates sooner than expected due to negative implications to consumer spending-and that is likely the message the market received and rallied behind on Friday. However, that did not stop the Atlanta Fed from revising its GDPNow first quarter GDP forecast up to 2.2% from 1.9% and specifically citing a larger contribution from real consumer spending growth (+3.3% from +3.1%) for the revision.

This could explain why, on Friday morning, the belly of the expectations curve of the fed funds futures market briefly signaled a 50.1% chance of a rate hike at the September meeting. The curve receded a bit since the morning with the market now expecting a 52.0% chance of a hike in November and a 48.9% chance of a move in September. On Monday, the fed funds futures market saw December as the next month entering into the rate hike conversation with the probability of a hike at the corresponding policy meeting running at 54.4%.

3:45 pm: [BRIEFING.COM]

Oil prices rallied today, giving a boost to related equities, which have been just surging higher late in the week
Apr crude closed today's session +4% at $35.92/barrel
Natural gas prices recovered some and extended gains here in after hours trade, now up +2%.
In floor trade, Apr nat gas rose +1.2% to $1.66/MMBtu
Metals rose today as well
Apr gold finished the day up 1% at $1270.50/oz, while May silver rallied 4% to $15.69.oz
May copper rallied 3.2% to end at $2.28/lb

2:55 pm:

[BRIEFING.COM] The major averages have continued their retreat from afternoon highs with the S&P 500 narrowing its gain to just 0.1%. The benchmark index is now back below its 100-day moving average (1999.8), which has served as an area of resistance with an hour to go in today's session.

The health care sector (-0.1%) is back in the red, but more notably, energy (-0.1%) has also turned negative in recent going after being up nearly 2.0% earlier today. Crude oil, however, remains near its high, trading up 3.6% at $35.80/bbl.

Treasuries have climbed off their highs, but they remain in negative territory with the 10-yr yield up five basis points at 1.88%.

2:30 pm:

[BRIEFING.COM] The major averages have backed away from their session highs, leaving the S&P 500 (+0.4%) in an area that has been well-traveled during the past two hours. Notably, the benchmark index remains above its 100-day moving average (1999.9), looking to register its first daily close above that mark since December 31.

Similar to stocks, crude oil ($35.73, +1.16) has ticked down from its best level of the day, but the energy component is still up 3.4% for the day with the pit close approaching. For the week, WTI crude is on track to add 9.0%.

Nine sectors remain in the green while health care (-0.1%) is back below its flat line as biotechnology backs away from its afternoon high. The iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 265.57, +1.33) has narrowed its gain to 0.5%. Elsewhere, technology (+0.4%) and financials (+0.5%) trade in the neighborhood of the broader market.

1:55 pm:

[BRIEFING.COM] The major averages have marked new session highs with the S&P 500 (+0.8%) and Nasdaq Composite (+0.8%) trading neck-in-neck.

The stock market has maintained its upward glide while crude oil ($35.97/bbl, +1.40) has held its ground through the release of a Baker Hughes Rig Count report, which showed that the total rig count declined by 13 to 489, representing the first sub-500 reading since April 1999.

The energy sector (+1.8%) remains well ahead of other groups while health care (+0.3%) has moved deeper into the green after lagging notably at the start.

Treasuries have ticked to new lows in recent action with the 10-yr yield now creeping above 1.90% (+7 bps).

1:25 pm:

[BRIEFING.COM] The major U.S. indices are holding on to gains, trading just below their intra-day highs.

A look inside the Dow Jones Industrial Average shows that Caterpillar (CAT 158.01, +2.68), Goldman Sachs (GS 158.00, +2.67), and Apple (AAPL 103.18, +1.68) are outperforming amid broad strength seen across all sectors. Caterpillar is leading the Dow higher as industrials extend their recent strength.

Conversely, Microsoft (MSFT 52.02, -0.33) is the worst-performing Dow component after being initiated this morning with a Neutral rating at Macquarie.

As stocks look to hold gains going into the weekend, the DJIA is poised to close the week higher by 2.2%, trimming its 2016 losses to roughly 2.4%.

1:00 pm:

[BRIEFING.COM] The major averages sport midday gains with the S&P 500 (+0.5%) looking for its fourth gain in a row and third consecutive weekly advance (+2.9% week-to-date).

The stock market sprung to life after a shaky start that briefly had all ten sectors trading in the red following the release of the Employment Situation Report for February. That report surprised on the headline level, showing nonfarm payroll growth of 242,000 (Briefing.com consensus 190,000), but average hourly earnings decreased 0.1% (Briefing.com consensus 0.2%), dropping the annualized earnings growth rate to 2.2% year-over-year from 2.5% that was observed in January. This puts the rate back in a lackluster range that has held for years and has negative implications for consumer spending.

Interestingly enough, the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, which releases a widely-followed GDPNow series, has increased its GDP forecast for the first quarter to 2.2% from 1.9% on March 1. The report cited an increase in expectations for real consumer spending growth (to +3.3% from +3.1%), suggesting this model does not anticipate negative shocks to consumer spending, at least not in the first quarter.

This could explain why, earlier this morning, the belly of the expectations curve of the fed funds futures market briefly signaled a 50.1% chance of a rate hike at the September meeting. The curve has receded a bit since this morning with the market now expecting a 50.5% chance of a hike in November and a 47.2% chance of a move in September.

Equities rose as the expectations curve receded with the energy sector (+1.8%) powering the move in stocks. This move has been underpinned by a surge in crude oil, which trades up 3.6% at $35.80/bbl. Other commodities also trade comfortably in the green while the Dollar Index (97.37, -0.24) is lower by 0.3%, and on track for its third consecutive decline.

Nine sectors hold gains at this juncture while health care (unch) has battled with its flat line after pressuring the market at the start. Biotechnology contributed to the early weakness, but that move has been retraced with iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 266.63, +2.39) now up 0.9%.

Elsewhere, top-weighted financials (+0.6%) have shown relative strength throughout the session while technology (+0.4%) has recovered from an opening stumble. Chipmakers have helped in that department with the PHLX Semiconductor Index up 1.6%.

Treasuries sit near their lows with the 10-yr yield up seven basis points at 1.90%.

Economic data included the Employment Situation Report and Trade Balance:

Nonfarm payrolls increased by 242,000 (Briefing.com consensus 190,000) and Private sector payrolls increased by 230,000 (Briefing.com consensus 180,000)
January nonfarm payrolls revised to 172,000 from 151,000 and January private sector payrolls revised to 182,000 from 158,000
Unemployment rate was 4.9% (Briefing.com consensus 4.9%) versus 4.9% in January
The U6 unemployment rate, which accounts for the total unemployed plus persons marginally attached to the labor force and the underemployed, was 9.7% versus 9.9% in January
Persons unemployed for 27 weeks or more accounted for 27.7% of the unemployed versus 26.9% in January
January average hourly earnings were down 0.1% (Briefing.com consensus 0.2%) after being up 0.5% in January
Over the last 12 months, average hourly earnings have risen 2.2% versus 2.5% in January
The average workweek declined 0.2 to 34.4 hours (Briefing.com consensus 34.6)
February manufacturing workweek was unchanged at 40.8 hours
Factory overtime was 3.3 hours for the third month in a row
The labor force participation rate was 62.9% versus 62.7% in January
The January Trade Balance report showed a widening in the deficit to $45.7 billion (Briefing.com consensus -$44.0 bln) from a downwardly revised deficit of $44.7 billion (from -$43.4 bln) for December
Exports were down $3.8 billion from December while imports were down $2.8 billion

12:30 pm:

[BRIEFING.COM] Not much change in recent action as the S&P 500 (+0.4%) remains within a striking distance of its session high.

The energy sector (+1.8%) continues holding the lead with crude oil now up 3.5% at $35.80/bbl. With today's advance, the energy component is now creeping up on levels from early January. Other commodities have also seen solid gains with gold up 0.8% at $1268.60/ozt while copper futures have spiked 2.9% to $2.273/lb.

In all likelihood, dollar weakness has added fuel to the strength in commodities considering the Dollar Index (97.30, -0.31) is down 0.3%, set for its third consecutive decline. The Index is down 0.9% this week and on track to erase a portion of last week's 1.6% gain.

12:00 pm:

[BRIEFING.COM] Equity indices continue holding the bulk of their gains with the S&P 500 up 0.5%, which puts the index above its 100-day moving average (1999.8) and on track to end the week higher by 2.8%. The market is all but certain to register its third weekly advance after reversing off the February 11 low at 1,810.10.

Eight sectors trade in the green with energy (+2.0%) and materials (+1.6%) well ahead of the pack. Top-weighted sectors have had a mixed showing, which induced volatility observed in the early going as health care (-0.1%) and technology (+0.3%) pressured stocks at the start. For its part, the financial sector (+0.6%) has been among the most resilient groups of the day, holdings its ground during the opening downturn.

Treasuries remain under notable pressure with the 10-yr yield up seven basis points at 1.90% while the Dollar Index (97.22, -0.39) is down 0.4%, hovering near its lowest level of the day.

11:30 am:

[BRIEFING.COM] The major averages have pushed to new highs in recent action with the S&P 500 now up 0.6%. The benchmark index has enjoyed broad-based support in the move higher and even the health care sector (-0.1%) has briefly poked its head into the green after weighing the market down in the early going.

Separately, the energy sector (+1.4%) has paced the market's advance with the move underpinned by a surge in crude oil. The energy component has spiked 2.5% to $35.42/bbl, looking to end the week with an 8.0%+ gain.

The gains in stocks and commodities have taken place against the backdrop of a sea of red in the bond market, where steady selling in the 10-yr note has run its yield up seven basis points to 1.90%.

11:00 am:

[BRIEFING.COM] The stock market has followed its opening dip into negative territory with a rally to a new session high, but the early action has taken place in a fairly limited range. The S&P 500 trades higher by 0.3%, testing the upside of a 13-point range, which puts the index in the neighborhood of its 100-day moving average (1999.8).

The benchmark index has spent the early action wrestling with its flat line while investors and analysts have been wrestling with an Employment Situation Report that wowed with a headline increase of 242,000 payrolls (Briefing.com consensus 190,000), but showed the first contraction in average hourly wages (-0.1%; Briefing.com consensus +0.2%) since December 2014.

Interestingly, the widely-followed GDPNow forecast from the Atlanta Federal Reserve was released today, increasing the bank's GDP forecast for the first quarter to 2.2% from 1.9% on March 1, citing a 20-basis point increase in real consumer spending growth to 3.3% despite the decline in average hourly wages in February.

10:40 am: [BRIEFING.COM]

WTI crude oil futures sold off modestly overnight, falling as low as $34.40/barrel
However, in morning trade, oil has recovered and is now +1.5% at $35.09/barrel
Weakness in natural gas futures continues as mild weather results in lower demand, which has resulted in higher supply of the commodity
Unfortunately, nat gas prices is getting hit from the combination of both catalysts (weak demand/plenty of supply).
Yesterday (Thursday) was another example that demand is slim, which was proven when the EIA released its weekly natural gas storage data
The EIA reported a nat gas inventory draw of 48 bcf, but this is only about 1/3 of what it normally is around this time of year.
Note: We are in the draw season, so natural gas is currently being pulled from inventory.

However, draw season usually ends every year in late March/early April
In current trade, Apr nat gas is now +0.6% at $1.65/MMBtu
In the metals space, Silver is soaring and others are showing nice gains as well
May silver is now +4% at $15.76/oz, while Apr gold is +1.4% at $1276.00/oz.
May copper is +2.6% at $2.27/lb

10:05 am:

[BRIEFING.COM] Equity indices have seen some more pressure in recent action, which has dropped all ten sectors into negative territory. The S&P 500 trades lower by 0.3%.

Energy (-0.1%) and financials (-0.1%) remain ahead of the pack while health care (-0.5%), consumer discretionary (-0.4%), and technology (-0.2%) underperform.

Treasuries continue showing losses with the 10-yr yield up two basis points at 1.85% while another wave of yen strength has pressured the dollar/yen pair to 113.15 (-0.4%).

9:50 am:

[BRIEFING.COM] The major averages have spent the initial minutes of today's session near their flat lines with the Nasdaq (-0.2%) showing relative weakness from the start.

Large cap tech names and biotechnology have been responsible for the early underperformance in the tech-heavy index while relative strength in financials (+0.1%) and energy (UNCH) has kept the S&P 500 a bit closer to its flat line. However, almost all sectors are seeing rising pressure to the downside at this time.

"Jobs Friday" often invites volatile action and today is living up to that billing after the Employment Situation Report for February beat headline expectations (+242K, Briefing.com consensus 190K), but disappointed in terms of average hourly earnings growth (-0.1%; Briefing.com consensus +0.2%).

Treasuries remain in the red with the 10-yr yield up two basis points at 1.85%.

9:20 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +1.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +3.50.

The stock market is on track for a wobbly start with S&P 500 futures trading two points above fair value after a sharp reversal from pre-market highs. Those highs, in the 2,000 area, were notched in the wake of a February Employment Situation Report, which showed strong headline growth (+242K, Briefing.com consensus 190K), but disappointing average hourly earnings growth. In fact, there was no growth on that front as the reading indicated the first contraction (-0.1%; Briefing.com consensus +0.2%) since December 2014.

Treasuries retreated following the report and they remain lower with the 10-yr yield up four basis points at 1.86%. Meanwhile, gold dipped initially, but has returned to its previous level (+0.7% at 1,266.90/ozt) since then. Also worth noting, the dollar/yen pair saw a 50-pip surge from 113.75 that has been followed by a dive to new lows near 113.50.

Interestingly enough, the mixed Employment Situation Report invited a shift in rate hike expectations with September entering the discussion. The tilt in expectations has the fed funds futures market considering a 50.0%+ probability of a move in September.

Separately, the January Trade Balance report was released at the same time. It showed a widening in the deficit to $45.7 billion (Briefing.com consensus -$44.0 bln) from a downwardly revised deficit of $44.7 billion (from -$43.4 bln) for December. Exports were down $3.8 billion from December while imports were down $2.8 billion.

On the corporate front, Broadcom (AVGO 146.02, +8.67) has spiked 6.3% in pre-market following better than expected results. Furthermore, Wells Fargo upgraded the entire semiconductor sector, which is likely to show early strength.

8:59 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +0.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +1.70.

The S&P 500 futures trade within a point of fair value.

Equity markets across Asia ended the week on a higher note ahead of the U.S. Employment Situation Report. Hong Kong's Hang Seng (+1.2%) led the way during overnight action, extending its weekly gain to 4.2%. Elsewhere, Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said the central bank is not considering lowering rates deeper into negative territory, which was followed by a small spike in the yen (113.78). Recall that Mr. Kuroda just yesterday claimed the BoJ will adjust its monetary policy stance without hesitation if needed, adding that the central bank will strengthen communication with market participants regarding negative interest rate policy. Furthermore, the Japanese government nominated Makoto Sakurai to the BoJ Board, who is viewed as more dovish than his predecessor, Ms. Sayuri Shirai.

Economic data was limited:
Japan's Average Cash Earnings +0.4% year-over-year (consensus 0.2%; last -0.2%)
Australia's January Retail Sales +0.3% month-over-month (expected 0.4%; previous 0.0%)

---Equity Markets---

Japan's Nikkei rose 0.3%, ending the week higher by 5.1%. The energy sector (+3.6%) was a clear standout with materials (+1.7%) and utilities (+1.5%) following. On the downside, Communications (-1.0%), health care (-0.8%) and financials (-0.1%) lagged. Sharp, Inpex, Sumitomo Metal Mining, Minebea, Hitachi Construction Machinery, and TEPCO posted gains between 3.1% and 9.4%. Conversely, Sumitomo Realty & Development, Dai-ichi Life Insurance, and Fanuc lost between 0.6% and 2.0%.
Hong Kong's Hang Seng climbed 1.2%, extending its weekly gain to 4.2%. CNOOC, Li & Fung, China Life Insurance, Sino Land, Kunlun Energy, and New World Development paced the rally with gains between 3.3% and 5.2%.
China's Shanghai Composite added 0.5%, finishing the week higher by 3.9%. China State Construction gained 1.8% while Industrial & Commercial Bank, Everbright Bank, Bank of Communications, and Agricultural Bank of China rallied between 3.8% and 5.1%.

Major European indices trade higher across the board, but they have retreated from their best levels following the U.S. Employment Situation Report. In general, the early portion of the session has been quiet with news limited to some European Central Bank-related rumblings ahead of next week's monetary policy meeting. Specifically, reports making the rounds have suggested any additional easing may be limited to a deposit rate cut, which would undershoot market expectations. This has given a boost to the euro, sending the currency to a one-week high against the dollar (+0.2% to 1.0991).

In economic data:
Eurozone Retail PMI 50.1 (last 48.9)
Italy's Q4 GDP +0.1%, as expected; +1.0% year-over-year, as expected

---Equity Markets---

UK's FTSE trades up 0.8% with miners out in front. Antofagasta, BHP Billiton, Glencore, Anglo American, and Rio Tinto show gains between 4.1% and 6.9%. A handful of names lag with homebuilders Barratt Developments and Taylor Wimpey both down near 1.5%.
Germany's DAX trades higher by 0.8% with exporters in the lead. BMW, Volkswagen, and Daimler show gains between 1.4% and 3.4% while Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank hold respective gains of 1.8% and 1.3%. On the downside, RWE, Continental, and Allianz are down between 0.3% and 0.7%.
France's CAC is higher by 1.0% amid broad strength. Alstom has surged 8.0% while Technip, Carrefour, L'Oreal, BNP Paribas, Societe Generale, and Danone, show gains between 1.5% and 4.2%.

8:30 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +5.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +17.10.

The S&P 500 futures trade five points above fair value.

February nonfarm payrolls came in at 242,000 while the Briefing.com consensus expected a reading of 190,000. The prior month's reading was revised up to 172,000 from 151,000. Nonfarm private payrolls added 230,000 against the 180,000 expected by the consensus. The unemployment rate held at 4.9%, which is what the Briefing.com consensus expected.

Average hourly earnings decreased 0.1% while the consensus expected an uptick of 0.2%. The average workweek was reported at 34.4 while the consensus expected a reading of 34.6.

Separately, the January trade balance showed a deficit of $45.70 billion while the Briefing.com consensus expected the deficit to come in at $44.00 billion. Theprevious month's deficit was revised to $44.70 billion from $43.40 billion.

7:55 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +3.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +14.30.

U.S. equity futures hold slim gains (S&P futures +3 vs fair value) ahead of this morning's release of the Employment Situation Report for February (Briefing.com consensus 190K), which could alter the market's rate hike expectations. On that note, average hourly earnings growth, which has surpassed expectations recently, will be in focus. The Briefing.com consensus expects the report to show average hourly earnings growth of 0.2% after pointing to a 0.5% increase in January. In addition to the Nonfarm Payrolls report, investors will receive the January Trade Balance (Briefing.com consensus -$44.00 billion) at 8:30 ET.

The Dollar Index (97.60, 0.00) saw some overnight weakness, but now trades flat. Meanwhile Treasuries hold slight losses with the 10-yr yield up one basis point at 1.84%. Also of note, gold traded as high as $1,275.70/ozt overnight and is now up 0.8% at $1,267.90/ozt.

In U.S. corporate news of note:

Broadcom (AVGO 148.02, +10.69): +7.8% in reaction to better than expected results. Furthermore, Wells Fargo upgraded the entire semiconductor sector.
Staples (SPLS 9.77, -0.10): -1.0% after missing earnings and revenue expectations.
Smith & Wesson (SWHC 27.00, +1.60): +6.3% following above-consensus results and guidance.
Nimble Storage (NMBL 7.00, -1.25): -15.2% after cautious guidance overshadowed in-line earnings on above-consensus revenue.

Reviewing overnight developments:

Asian markets ended higher across the board. Japan's Nikkei +0.3%, China's Shanghai Composite +0.5%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng +1.2%
In economic data:
Japan's Average Cash Earnings +0.4% year-over-year (consensus 0.2%; last -0.2%)
Australia's January Retail Sales +0.3% month-over-month (expected 0.4%; previous 0.0%)
In news:
Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said the central bank is not considering lowering rates deeper into negative territory at this time, which was followed by a small spike in the yen (113.78)
Major European indices trade mostly higher. France's CAC +0.9%, UK's FTSE +1.0%, and Germany's DAX +1.1%. Elsewhere, Italy's MIB -0.4% and Spain's IBEX +0.7%
Economic data was limited:
Eurozone Retail PMI 50.1 (last 48.9)
Italy's Q4 GDP +0.1%, as expected; +1.0% year-over-year, as expected
Among news of note:
Reports making the rounds have suggested any additional easing from the European Central Bank may be limited to a deposit rate cut, which would undershoot market expectations

6:03 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: flat. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +1.80.

6:03 am: [BRIEFING.COM] Nikkei...17015...+54.60...+0.30%. Hang Seng...20177...+234.90...+1.20%.

6:03 am: [BRIEFING.COM] FTSE...6155.47...+25.00...+0.40%. DAX...9787.88...+36.00...+0.40%.

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader Image@ http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader

http://www.thestrategylab.com
Phone: +1 708 572-4885
Business Hours: 8am - 5pm est (Mon - Fri)
Skype Messenger: kebec2002
wrbanalysis@gmail.com


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