TheStrategyLab.com Price Action Trading Support Forum

Forum for price action traders that want to learn WRB Analysis basic tutorial chapters 1, 2 and 3 prior to purchasing our advance trade methods. Hashtags: #wrbanalysis #wrbzone #wrbhiddengap #priceaction #trading
It is currently Thu Mar 28, 2024 8:04 am

All times are UTC - 5 hours [ DST ]




Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 1 post ] 
Author Message
 Post subject: September 14th Monday Trade Results - Profit $7375.00
PostPosted: Tue Sep 15, 2015 3:39 am 
Offline
Site Admin

Joined: Sat Jan 10, 2009 2:06 pm
Posts: 4335
Location: Canada
Image

Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
Phone: +1 708 572-4885
Free Chat Room: http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=164
Business Hours: 8am - 5pm est (Mon - Fri)
wrbanalysis@gmail.com (24/7)
http://twitter.com/wrbtrader (24/7)

Attachment:
091415-wrbtrader-Price-Action-Trading-PnL-Blotter-Profit+7375.00.png
091415-wrbtrader-Price-Action-Trading-PnL-Blotter-Profit+7375.00.png [ 89.13 KiB | Viewed 455 times ]

click on the above image to view today's performance verification

Price Action Trade Performance for Today: Emini TF ($TF_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.00 points, Emini ES ($ES_F) futures @ $7375.00 dollars or +147.50 points, Light Crude Oil CL ($CL_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.00 points, Gold GC ($GC_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.00 points and EuroFX 6E ($6E_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.0000 ticks. Total Profit @ $7375.00 dollars

Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures: 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures: 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup
Light Crude Oil CL (WTI) Futures: 1 tick or 0.01 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup
Gold GC Futures: 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup
EuroFX 6E Futures: 1 tick or 0.0001 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup

Trade Log: All of my trades were posted real-time in the timestamp ##TheStrategyLab free chat room. You can read today's price action trading information about my trades (e.g. time, price entry, contract size, price exit) as the trade traversed to its completion. Also, sometimes I'll post real-time trading tips in ##TheStrategyLab chat room involving WRBs, WRB Hidden GAPs, Key Market Events (KME), Tutorial Chapters 2 & 3, WRB Zones, Reaction Highs/Lows, Contracting Volatility or Expanding Volatility. Its all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=147&t=2170

Quote:
All of my real-time posted trades involves price action concepts from the WRB Analysis free study guide, Advance WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 4 - 12 and the Volatility Trading Report (VTR) trade signal strategies. Analysis -----> Trade Signals

Also, posted below are direct links to information about my price action trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis). I'm primarily a day trader because it suits my personal lifestyle but I do occasionally swing trade and position trade. Simply, my trade method is applicable for position trading, swing trading and day trading.

Image ##TheStrategyLab Chat Room is free. Members and I use the chat room to post WRB Analysis commentary, real-time trades and to post anything else related to trading. The chat room helps me tremendously in my own trading because I use it to document (journal) general volatility analysis involving WRB Analysis so that I can easily review at a later date my thoughts as I interacted with the markets...info I can not get from my broker statements. Also, this is not a signal calling chat room where a head trader tells you when to buy or sell and I do not have the time/energy/resources to manage a signal calling chat room. Access instructions for chat room @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=164

Image Price Action Analysis via Advance WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=119&t=718

Analysis -----> Trade Signals

Image Trade Signal Strategies via Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our price action trade strategies with support (answering your questions) prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR). All WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1 - 12 are included in the purchase of the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Image Trading Plan Daily Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=271&t=2883 contains brief information about trading plan, market context, brokers, trading time frames, position size management and other discussions.

-----------------------------

Market Context Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, Briefing, Reuters and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED/ECB/BOE/IMF actions or any important global economic events (e.g. Eurozone, MarketWatch.com) that had an impact on today's price action in many trading instruments I monitor during the trading day. Simply, I'm a strong believer that key market events causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility resulting in trade opportunities (swing points and strong continuation price actions) that reach profit targets. Thus, I pay attention to these key market events, intermarket analysis (e.g. Forex EurUsd, EuroFX 6E futures, Gold GC futures, Light Crude Oil (WTI) CL & Brent Oil futures, Eurex DAX futures, Euronext FTSE100 futures, Emini ES futures, Emini TF futures, Treasury ZB futures and U.S. Dollar Index futures) while using WRB Analysis from one trade to the next trade to give me the market context for price action trading before the appearance of my technical analysis trade signals. Therefore, I maintain these archives to allow me to understand what was happening on any given trading day in the past involving key market events to help better understand my trade decisions (day trading, swing trading, position trading)...something I can not get from my broker statements alone. Further, most financial websites remove (delete) their archives after a few years to make room for new content. Therefore, I maintain my own archives of the news content so that I have it available for me when financial websites no longer archives their content.

Attachment:
091415-Key-Price-Action-Markets.png
091415-Key-Price-Action-Markets.png [ 1.32 MiB | Viewed 441 times ]

click on the above image to view today's price action of key markets


4:05 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The stock market began the week on a lower note with the S&P 500 surrendering 0.4% while the Nasdaq Composite (-0.3%) outperformed slightly.

Overall, the Monday affair was very quiet with many investors sticking to the sidelines ahead of Thursday's FOMC policy announcement, which could feature a fed funds rate hike. To that point, fewer than 800 million shares changed hands at the NYSE floor versus a 20-day average of 984 million.

A cautious tone was set during overnight action after China and Japan both released disappointing industrial production reports. Equity bulls attempted to turn the tide during European action, but their efforts were not successful with the selling spilling into the U.S. session.

The key indices hit their lows shortly after 13:00 ET and remained near those levels until the close. Nine sectors registered losses while the utilities space (+0.3%) eked out a slim gain, which was aided by strength in Treasuries that sent the 10-yr yield lower by two basis points to 2.17%.

On the downside, energy (-0.8%) and materials (-1.3%) spent the day behind the remaining sectors, responding to general weakness in the commodity market. To that point, crude oil gave up 1.5%, sliding to $44.07/bbl while copper (-1.6% to $2.41/lb) and silver (-1.0% to $14.36/ozt) also posted losses. Gold was an outlier, climbing 0.4% to $1107.70/ozt. Mining stocks saw some intraday strength in response, but the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX 13.12, -0.09) lost 0.7%.

Elsewhere among influential sectors, financials (-0.3%), health care (-0.4%), and technology (-0.3%) settled near the broader market.

The top-weighted tech sector spent the day just ahead of the benchmark index thanks to a 1.0% spike in the shares of Apple (AAPL 115.30, +1.09) after the company's spokesman said iPhone pre-orders are on pace to top last year's weekend sales record. However, it is worth noting that the forecast presented by Apple includes sales from China while last year's iPhone release was not available in China during the first weekend.

Unlike Apple, most of the remaining large cap tech components registered losses while high-beta chipmakers outperformed. The PHLX Semiconductor Index added 0.3% with roughly 2/3 of its components ending in the green.

On a separate note, Solera (SLH 53.66, +4.21) spiked 8.5% after agreeing to be acquired by Vista Equity Partners for $55.85/share in cash, which translates to roughly $6.50 billion. Investors did not receive any economic data today.

Tomorrow, August Retail Sales (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%) and the September Empire Manufacturing Index (consensus 0.3) will be reported at 8:30 ET while August Industrial Production (consensus -0.2%) and Capacity Utilization (expected 77.8%) will cross the wires at 9:15 ET. The day's data will be topped off with the 10:00 ET release of the Business Inventories report for July (expected 0.1%).

Nasdaq Composite +1.5% YTD
Russell 2000 -4.3% YTD
S&P 500 -5.1% YTD
Dow Jones Industrial Average -8.2% YTD

3:30 pm: [BRIEFING.COM]

Commodities are trading lower today overall. According to the Bloomberg Commodity Index, commodities are about 0.4% lower today.
The dollar index is modestly higher today, which is therefore only providing slightly pressure overall on commodities.
Oil prices slid lower today, which follows two widely-followed montly oil market report.. this morning's OPEC oil report and Friday's oil market report from the IEA.
By the end of today's pit session, Oct oil fell -1.5% to close at $44.07/barrel.
In other energy, Oct natural gas ended +2.6% at $2.76/MMBtu.
Gold climbed higher, but not much. However, it closed near today's high, finishing +0.4% at $1107.70/oz.
Silver, on the other hand, lost steam today and ultimately closed -1% at $14.36/oz.
Meanwhile, in industrial metals, copper declined -1.6% to $2.41/lb. All metals noted are Dec contracts.

3:00 pm:

[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 trades lower by 0.4% with one hour remaining in the session.

All in all, the market has begun the new trading week on a quiet note with many participants shying away from the action ahead of Thursday's FOMC rate decision. With just a few days left, there is no strong sense for what the Fed will do, which is likely contributing to the cautious posture in the market.

Treasuries are back in the green after testing the unchanged level with the 10-yr yield down one basis point at 2.18% with the pit close looming.

2:25 pm:

[BRIEFING.COM] Quiet afternoon action continues with the key indices hovering near their recent levels.

Sector standing has not changed much with the utilities sector (+0.2%) holding a modest gain while the remaining nine groups display losses between 0.2% (technology) and 1.1% (materials). The top-weighted technology sector has traded a bit ahead of the broader market since the start, but its relative strength has been outweighed by losses in other sectors.

Similar to technology, financials (-0.4%) and health care (-0.5%) displayed relative strength earlier, but the two influential groups now trade in-line with the broader market.

Interestingly, Treasuries have surrendered all of their gains with the 10-yr yield returning to unchanged at 2.19%.

1:55 pm:

[BRIEFING.COM] The major averages continue ranging near their session lows.

With a blank economic calendar, we look to tomorrow's retail sales report.

Retail sales increased 0.6% in July after being flat in June. The Briefing.com Consensus expects retail sales increased 0.3% in August.

August was a banner month for the auto industry. Manufacturers reported 17.8 mln SAAR vehicles sold, up from 17.6 mln SAAR in July. It was the best performing month since July 2005.

Excluding autos, retail sales increased 0.4% for a second consecutive month. The consensus expects these sales increased 0.2% in August.

According to the August employment report, aggregate earnings increased a solid 0.7%. That should translate into an acceleration in consumer spending.

1:35 pm:

[BRIEFING.COM] The major U.S. are unchanged from our last update, under pressure to start the week as investors display caution ahead of this week's Fed announcement.

A look inside the Dow Jones Industrial Average shows Visa (V 69.87, -0.89), Microsoft (MSFT 42.93, -0.55), and UnitedHealth Group (UNH 117.28, -1.42) are underperforming.
Related Quotes

Conversely, Apple (AAPL 115.15, +0.94) is the best-performing Dow component after commenting on pre-order numbers for its newest iPhones, saying its on pace to surpass the prior year's first-weekend record. Apple shares also received a positive Barron's mention over the weekend, which said shares could rise another 50% following its latest iPhone financing plan.

With today's decline, the DJIA is now down 1.1% in September, and 8.3% this year.

12:50 pm:

[BRIEFING.COM] The major averages trade near their lows at midday with the Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 all showing losses close to 0.6% apiece.

The first half of today's affair has featured a steady retreat, but light trading volume suggests some of the usual participants are sticking to the sidelines ahead of Thursday's FOMC rate decision. Nine of ten sectors display midday losses while the utilities space (+0.1%) outperforms, benefitting from lower Treasury yields (10-yr yield -2 bps at 2.17%).

On the flip side, energy (-0.8%) and materials (-1.0%) sit at the bottom of the leaderboard amid weakness in commodities. Specifically, crude oil has surrendered 1.7%, sliding to $43.84/bbl while copper futures have also faced selling pressure. The red metal is down 1.8% at $2.41/lb. That being said, gold futures represent an outlier, trading higher by 0.4% at $1108.20/ozt. That modest strength has given a boost to mining stocks with Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX 13.25, +0.04) trading higher by 0.3%.

Similar to energy and materials, the consumer discretionary sector (-0.7%) underperforms while the remaining cyclical sectors have been able to stay ahead of the benchmark index for the time being.

Notably, the technology sector (-0.3%) outperforms with Apple (AAPL 115.10, +0.90) trading higher by 0.8% after the company's spokesman said iPhone pre-orders are on pace to top last year's weekend sales record. However, it is worth noting that the forecast presented by Apple includes sales from China while last year's iPhone release was not available in China during the first weekend.

Similar to Apple, high-beta chipmakers trade with gains, evidenced by a 0.4% advance in the PHLX Semiconductor Index.

Investors did not receive any economic data today.

12:30 pm:

[BRIEFING.COM] Not much change in the market with the S&P 500 (-0.5%) testing a fresh session low.

Commodity-linked sectors remain at the bottom of the leaderboard with energy down 1.0% while the materials sector (-1.3%) underperforms. More notably, the heavily-weighted technology (-0.4%) and financials (-0.5%) have been pulled lower after showing a slight gain in the early going.

Broadly speaking, market breath remains tilted to the downside with roughly two NYSE listings trading in the red for each advancer.

Interestingly, the intraday retreat in equities has had little impact on Treasuries. After briefly slipping from its high, the 10-yr note has returned just below its morning low with the 10-yr yield down two basis points at 2.17%.

12:00 pm:

[BRIEFING.COM] Recent action saw the key indices notch fresh session lows. The S&P 500 is now down 0.5% while the Nasdaq Composite trades in-line with the benchmark index.

The early weakness in equities has taken place amid relatively light volume considering only 260 million shares have changed hands at the NYSE floor so far today. The low volume is not a huge surprise as some participants are likely staying away from the market ahead of the FOMC rate decision, which will be released on Thursday afternoon.

Elsewhere, Treasuries have ticked down from their highs, but they continue holding gains with the 10-yr yield down two basis points at 2.17%.

11:25 am:

[BRIEFING.COM] Not much change in the market as the key indices continue drifting not far below their flat lines. At this juncture, the Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 all show losses close to 0.4% apiece.

In one of our earlier updates we highlighted the relative strength in the health care sector, but the top-weighted countercyclical group now trades in-line with the S&P 500. Biotechnology has contributed to the downtick from recent levels, evidenced by a 1.0% loss in iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 350.89, -3.85).

Elsewhere, the largest sector by weight-technology (-0.2%)-remains just ahead of the broader market with Apple (AAPL 115.71, +1.50) trading higher by 1.3%. Similarly, high-beta chipmakers trade in the green with the PHLX Semiconductor Index higher by 0.4%.

10:55 am:

[BRIEFING.COM] The major averages have climbed off their lows, but they remain in negative territory with the S&P 500 down 0.3%.

The utilities sector has extended its gain to 0.6% while eight of the remaining nine groups continue showing losses of no more than 0.7% (materials). Also of note, the heavily-weighted financial sector has returned to its unchanged level while two other influential groups-technology (-0.1%) and health care (unch)-trade near their flat lines.

Elsewhere, Treasuries continue trading not far below their highs with the 10-yr yield down two basis points at 2.17%.

10:35 am: [BRIEFING.COM]

The dollar traded negative overnight, before seeing an early morning gradual rally, that now has the index back above the unchanged mark.
Sentiment surrounding a possible rate hike at this week's Fed meeting is driving movement in the dollar, which is currently putting pressure on oil and metals
The index is now +0.2% to 95.60
Crude oil was held slightly negative/flat overnight, largely by a strengthening dollar and under-whelming factory-output and asset-investment data out of China
Also highlighting price action in crude, was a report by the monthly oil report from OPEC, that trimmed non-OPEC supply estimates for 2016 by ~110K barrels/day
WTI began to sell-off as early trading commenced and is now just above its LoD at -1.3% to $44.06/barrel
Gold saw modest gains early- outpacing silver, which was in the red- before being pressed to near flat by the dollar. Copper is also facing a dollar headwind, but is being primarily driven by the disappointing Chinese data.
Gold is currently +0.1% to $1104.40/oz, silver is -1.2% to $14.34/oz and copper is -1.5% to $2.42/lb
Natural gas is holding gains at +0.8% to $2.72

9:55 am:

[BRIEFING.COM] Equity indices have extended their opening losses with the S&P 500 now down 0.5%.

Nine sectors trade in negative territory while the utilities sector (+0.2%) remains above its flat line thanks to lower Treasury yields (10-yr yield -2 bps at 2.17%).

On the flip side, energy (-1.1%) and materials (-1.2%) bring up the rear as general weakness in commodities weighs on the two sectors. To that point, crude oil is lower by 1.6% at $43.91/bbl while copper futures have slid 1.7% to $2.41/lb.

Elsewhere, the technology sector (-0.2%) continues trading ahead of the broader market thanks to relative strength in the shares of Apple (AAPL 115.94, +1.73), but most other large cap tech names trade in negative territory.

9:40 am:

[BRIEFING.COM] The major averages began the trading day near their flat lines before slipping into the red.

The S&P 500 is lower by 0.3% while the Nasdaq (-0.1%) outperforms slightly thanks to a 2.3% spike in the shares of Apple (AAPL 116.83, +2.62) after a company spokesman said iPhone pre-orders are on pace to exceed last year's first weekend sales record. However, it is worth pointing out that the iPhone did not sell in China during the first weekend last year.

The relative strength in Apple has kept the technology sector (unch) little changed while eight of the remaining groups trade in the red. The energy sector (-1.2%) is the weakest performer amid a 1.4% decline in crude oil, which has slid to $44.01/bbl.

Elsewhere, Treasuries sit on their highs with the 10-yr yield down three basis points at 2.16%.

9:12 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +0.90. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +15.10.

The stock market is on track for a flat open with S&P 500 futures trading within a point of fair value. Index futures have returned to their pre-market lows not long ago with European equities displaying similar price action. Currently, markets in France, Germany, and UK hold losses between 0.2% and 0.5% while Italy's MIB (-0.9%) underperforms.

Interestingly, the weakness in futures has occurred alongside dollar strength, which is a bit of a shift from the recent dynamic that saw the dollar retreat alongside stocks as euro- and yen-based carry trades were unwound. At this juncture, the Dollar Index (95.36, +0.17) is higher by 0.2% with the greenback adding 0.3% against the euro (1.1300).

This morning has been relatively quiet on the corporate front, but Apple (AAPL 116.79, +2.49) is on track to open higher by 2.2% after the company's spokesman said iPhone pre-orders are on pace to top last year's weekend sales record. However, it is worth noting that this year's figures include sales from China while last year's numbers did not.

Treasuries hover near their highs with the 10-yr yield down two basis points at 2.17%.

8:50 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +1.10. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +15.10.

The S&P 500 futures trade one point above fair value.

There was mixed trading action in Asian-Pacific markets to begin the week. The two most closely-watched markets, however -- the Nikkei (-1.6%) and the Shanghai Composite (-2.7%) -- had the worst showings following some weaker than expected industrial production reports from Japan and China. On a separate note, Malcolm Turnbull will become Australia's 29th prime minister after winning the Liberal Party leadership ballot.

In economic data:
China's August Industrial Production +6.1% year-over-year (expected +6.4%; prior +6.0%), August Fixed Asset Investment +10.9% year-over-year (expected +11.1%; prior +11.2%), and August Retail Sales +10.8% year-over-year (expected +10.5%; prior +10.5%)
Japan's July Industrial Production -0.8% month-over-month (expected -0.6%; prior -0.6%), July Capacity Utilization -0.2% (prior +0.7%), and Tertiary Industry Activity Index +0.2% month-over-month (expected +0.2%; prior +0.3%)
India's August WPI Inflation -4.95% year-over-year (expected -4.40%; prior -4.05%), August WPI Food -1.13% year-over-year (prior -1.20%), and August WPI Fuel -16.5% year-over-year (prior -12.8%)

------

Japan's Nikkei declined 1.6% and ended near its lows for the day following some weaker than expected industrial production data at home and out of China. Additionally, some of the weakness was attributed to reports that the BOJ isn't going to introduce new stimulus soon. Pacing the losses were the industrials (-2.1%), health care (-1.4%), consumer discretionary (-1.3%), and financials (-1.3%) sectors. NTT DOCOMO (-9.8%), KDDI Corp (-8.6%), and Nippon Telegraph & Telephone (-6.5%) were the weakest issues. Pioneer Corp (+3.9%), NTT Data (+3.6%), and Nippon Electric Glass Co (+3.1%) topped the list of winners. Out of the 225 index members, 44 ended higher, 174 finished lower, and 7 were unchanged.
Hong Kong's Hang Seng increased 0.3%, deviating from a weak mainland market. Tingyi Cayman Islands Holding Corp (+2.7%), China Life Insurance (+1.9%), and AIA Group (+1.4%) were upside leaders while Belle International Holdings (-7.0%), Sands China (-3.0%), and Galaxy Entertainment Group (-2.6%) brought up the rear. Out of the 50 index members, 33 ended higher, 13 finished lower, and 4 were unchanged.
China's Shanghai Composite declined 2.7%, falling prone to selling pressure in the wake of reports showing August industrial production and fixed asset investment were both weaker than expected. That news overshadowed a stronger than expected retail sales report and news of reform measures surrounding state-owned enterprises.

Major European indices trade near their flat lines after slipping from their highs. Over the weekend, German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said that a European deposit guarantee mechanism cannot be implemented until other financial stability measures are in place.

Economic data was limited:
Eurozone July Industrial Production +0.6% month-over-month (expected 0.3%; prior -0.3%); +1.9% year-over-year (consensus 0.6%; last 1.5%)
Italy's August CPI +0.2% month-over-month, as expected; +0.2% year-over-year, as expected
Swiss August PPI -0.7% month-over-month (expected -0.4%; prior -0.3%); -6.8% year-over-year (last -6.4%). Separately, Retail Sales -0.1% year-over-year (expected 1.5%; prior -0.9%)

------

France's CAC is lower by 0.3% with financials under pressure. BNP Paribas, Credit Agricole, and Societe Generale are down between 0.7% and 1.8%. On the upside, Veolia Environnement and Orange outperform with gains of 1.0% and 0.6%, respectively.
Germany's DAX has given up 0.2% with roughly 65% of its components in the red. Commerzbank and Deutsche Bank are down near 1.0% apiece while Merck and Henkel outperform with gains near 0.5%.
UK's FTSE holds a loss of 0.1% with financials and consumer names struggling. Barclays, Lloyds Banking Group, and WM Morrison Supermarkets are down between 1.0% and 4.2%. Conversely, miners outperform with BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto, and Randgold Resources up between 0.4% and 1.0%.

8:24 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -1.10. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +6.30.

U.S. equity futures hover near their pre-market lows after dipping below their flat lines in recent action. In fact, this marks the third time today that futures have turned negative, but the first two dips were retraced swiftly. It is worth noting that the price action in futures has mirrored the action in Europe where the major indices have also dipped into negative territory not long ago.

Interestingly, the recent downtick in equity futures has been met with greenback strength, sending the Dollar Index (95.35, +0.15) higher by 0.2%. On a related note, Treasuries hover on their highs with the 10-yr yield down two basis points at 2.17%.

7:57 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +1.40. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +11.80.

U.S. equity futures trade modestly higher amid cautious action overseas. The S&P 500 futures hover within two points of fair value.

Meanwhile, Treasuries hold slim gains with the 10-yr yield down two basis points at 2.17%.

Today's session will be free of economic data.

In U.S. corporate news of note:

Randgold Resources (GOLD 56.28, -1.56): -2.7% after JP Morgan downgraded the stock to 'Neutral' from 'Overweight.'
Solera (SLH 53.86, +4.41): +8.9% after agreeing to be acquired by Vista Equity Partners for $55.85/share in cash.

Reviewing overnight developments:

Asian markets ended mixed. Hong Kong's Hang Seng +0.3%, China's Shanghai Composite -2.7%, and Japan's Nikkei -1.6%
In economic data:
China's August Industrial Production +6.1% year-over-year (expected +6.4%; prior +6.0%), August Fixed Asset Investment +10.9% year-over-year (expected +11.1%; prior +11.2%), and August Retail Sales +10.8% year-over-year (expected +10.5%; prior +10.5%)
Japan's July Industrial Production -0.8% month-over-month (expected -0.6%; prior -0.6%), July Capacity Utilization -0.2% (prior +0.7%), and Tertiary Industry Activity Index +0.2% month-over-month (expected +0.2%; prior +0.3%)
India's August WPI Inflation -4.95% year-over-year (expected -4.40%; prior -4.05%), August WPI Food -1.13% year-over-year (prior -1.20%), and August WPI Fuel -16.5% year-over-year (prior -12.8%)
In news:
The Bank of Japan will hold a policy meeting overnight, but is not expected to announce additional easing measures at this time
In Australia, Malcolm Turnbull will become the country's 29th prime minister after winning the Liberal Party leadership ballot

Major European indices trade near their flat lines. UK's FTSE -0.1%, France's CAC -0.1%, and Germany's DAX is flat. Elsewhere, Italy's MIB -0.6% and Spain's IBEX -0.1%.
Economic data was limited:
Eurozone July Industrial Production +0.6% month-over-month (expected 0.3%; prior -0.3%); +1.9% year-over-year (consensus 0.6%; last 1.5%)
Italy's August CPI +0.2% month-over-month, as expected; +0.2% year-over-year, as expected
Swiss August PPI -0.7% month-over-month (expected -0.4%; prior -0.3%); -6.8% year-over-year (last -6.4%). Separately, Retail Sales -0.1% year-over-year (expected 1.5%; prior -0.9%)
Among news of note:
German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said that a European deposit guarantee mechanism cannot be implemented until other financial stability measures are in place

5:55 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +3.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +12.00.

5:53 am: [BRIEFING.COM] Nikkei...17965.70...-298.50...-1.60%. Hang Seng...21561.90...+57.50...+0.30%.

5:53 am: [BRIEFING.COM] FTSE...6166.44...+48.70...+0.80%. DAX...10156.23...+32.90...+0.30%.

Bloomberg

VIX at 24 Leaves U.S. Stocks With No Road Map for Fed Tightening @ http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/ ... ssion-bell

No rate hike has started within one month of correction
VIX averaged 16.9 when last three tighten cycles began

Normally, in the stock market, calm prevails before the Federal Reserve moves on interest rates. That it’s nowhere to be found now is causing investors to question other assumptions about equities and the tightening cycle.

How different is the landscape now compared with past liftoffs? One example is the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, the gauge of investor nervousness that rises as market stress spreads. Since 1990, the VIX has averaged 16.9 when U.S. policy makers started raising. Today it’s above 24.

Attachment:
091415-Bloomberg-VIX-Past-Tightening-Cycles.png
091415-Bloomberg-VIX-Past-Tightening-Cycles.png [ 157.13 KiB | Viewed 390 times ]

Something else to consider: at 78 months, the bull market that began in March 2009 is the third longest in history. But it’s the longest ever to go without an increase by the Fed, eclipsing the nearest competitor by more than eight months.

Anomalies such as those are casting doubt on assumptions that have held up during past tightenings, among them that rate hikes are rarely disasters for equities because they come at times when market confidence is high. This time, it’s different -- at least so far.

“Normally, the Fed tightens because growth is great, inflation is heating up -- that typically coincides with a strong market and little volatility,” said Savita Subramanian, an equity strategist at Bank of America Corp. in New York. “This time around, we’re in a different environment where it feels like the Fed is going from emerging monetary policy to normal monetary policy. It’s decidedly different.”

Since 1946, following the initiation of 12 tightening cycles defined by Ned Davis Research, the S&P 500 was higher a year later eight times and posted an average 12-month return of 2.5 percent. The last three led to rising markets, with stocks advancing 4.4 percent in 2004, more than 5 percent in 1999 and 1.9 percent 12 months after the 1994 increase.

But past tightenings also began when the stock market was much less turbulent. Over the month leading up to those 12 cycles since World War II, the S&P 500’s average daily move, a rough measure of volatility, was less than 0.6 percent -- 15 percent lower than usual.

This time around, volatility reigns. The S&P 500 tumbled 10 percent over four days through Aug. 25, the most in four years. The Fed has never started tightening within a month of a correction. Price swings have widened to 1.4 percent a day in the past month. The VIX has spent 12 of the last 15 days above 25, a level it had occupied on only five days since the start of 2012.

Swings have been wild enough to stoke a debate on whether the markets themselves are enough to torpedo a move on Thursday -- so much so that fed fund futures started tracking equity indexes halfway through August. Odds of an increase on Sept. 17 bottomed in the last full week of August as stocks plunged then made up as much as a third of the lost ground as shares recovered.

“This is not the script they would have written,” said Quincy Krosby, a market strategist for Newark, New Jersey-based Prudential Financial Inc., which oversees more than $1 trillion. “By telegraphing for so long that this was coming, in essence you created this volatility and now you can’t do it because of the volatility. It does complicate things for the Fed.”

In four tightenings since 1990, including the tapering of bond purchases announced in 2013, the S&P 500 had posted positive returns over the prior three and six month periods, and was within 3 percent of the gauge’s 52-week high, according to Bank of America Corp. data. By comparison, the benchmark index is down 6.3 percent over the last three months and is 8.3 percent below its high of 2,130.82, reached in May.

The bull case on stocks after a rate hike turns on a belief that the Fed doesn’t act unless the economy is sound enough to take it, a thesis that has been bolstered by recent data. At 5.1 percent, U.S. unemployment is the lowest in seven years, housing sales are booming and even producer prices beat economist forecasts last week.

The Fed may opt to raise rates just to preserve its credibility and as a result, stock volatility may subside -- especially if the central bank signals additional increases will be slow and gradual, according to John Carey, a Boston-based fund manager at Pioneer Investment Management Inc., which oversees about $240 billion.

“They may feel they need to go ahead and show the market they can and will raise rates,” Carey said. “Settling the matter, being more decisive may relieve some of the uncertainty in the marketplace.”

At the same time, a jumpy stock market can affect the economy by itself, as evidenced in last week’s University of Michigan consumer sentiment index, which declined to the lowest level in a year. Some 17 percent of respondents mentioned unfavorable news about stocks, the highest share since the height of the last financial crisis in October 2008.

The Fed is slated to announce its decision on Sept. 17, at the conclusion of its two-day meeting. Economists are evenly split on whether there will be a hike, with about half the 81 surveyed by Bloomberg predicting a rate increase. Should the Fed decide to raise rates, it would be the first time since 1946 that the start of a tightening cycle occurs within one month of a correction.

Hedge funds and other large speculators bet the turbulence will last, driving the net long positions tied to VIX futures to a record 32,000 contracts in the week ended Sept. 8, according to data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Before August, speculators were net short VIX futures by an average of about 45,000 contracts in the last two years.

“There are things that are not lining up to the historic pattern,” said Joe Kalish, senior macro strategist at Ned Davis Research in Venice Florida. Going into past rate hikes, “we saw a moderate level of volatility and it was also against a very strong economy that the market probably felt the Fed was justified in trying to come in and cool off the economy, whereas this, there seems to be a lot of nervousness and uncertainty about the economy.”

Special thanks to Bloomberg, Briefing, Reuters and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader Image@ http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader

http://www.thestrategylab.com
Phone: +1 708 572-4885
Business Hours: 8am - 5pm est (Mon - Fri)
Skype Messenger: kebec2002
wrbanalysis@gmail.com
Go Back To TheStrategyLab.com Homepage


Top
 Profile  
 
Display posts from previous:  Sort by  
Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 1 post ] 

All times are UTC - 5 hours [ DST ]


Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests


You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot post attachments in this forum

Search for:
Jump to:  
cron
Powered by phpBB © 2000, 2002, 2005, 2007 phpBB Group
Translated by Xaphos © 2007, 2008, 2009 phpBB.fr