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 Post subject: September 4th Friday Trade Results - No Trades
PostPosted: Fri Sep 04, 2015 6:07 pm 
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Joined: Sat Jan 10, 2009 2:06 pm
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Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
Phone: +1 708 572-4885
Free Chat Room: http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=164
Business Hours: 8am - 5pm est (Mon - Fri)
wrbanalysis@gmail.com (24/7)
http://twitter.com/wrbtrader (24/7)

Quote:
No trades today for me because I needed a day off from the markets to rest and relax. Simply, I spent the day re-energizing because the last 2 weeks of trading has been very difficult involving the stress that's associated with these types of high volatility choppy market conditions.

Price Action Trade Performance for Today: Emini TF ($TF_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.00 points, Emini ES ($ES_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.00 points, Light Crude Oil CL ($CL_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.00 points, Gold GC ($GC_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.00 points and EuroFX 6E ($6E_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.0000 ticks. Total Profit @ $0.00 dollars

Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures: 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures: 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup
Light Crude Oil CL (WTI) Futures: 1 tick or 0.01 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup
Gold GC Futures: 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup
EuroFX 6E Futures: 1 tick or 0.0001 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup

Trade Log: All of my trades were posted real-time in the timestamp ##TheStrategyLab free chat room. You can read today's price action trading information about my trades (e.g. time, price entry, contract size, price exit) as the trade traversed to its completion. Also, sometimes I'll post real-time trading tips in ##TheStrategyLab chat room involving WRBs, WRB Hidden GAPs, Key Market Events (KME), Tutorial Chapters 2 & 3, WRB Zones, Reaction Highs/Lows, Contracting Volatility or Expanding Volatility. Its all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=147&t=2164

Quote:
All of my real-time posted trades involves price action concepts from the WRB Analysis free study guide, Advance WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 4 - 12 and the Volatility Trading Report (VTR) trade signal strategies. Analysis -----> Trade Signals

Also, posted below are direct links to information about my price action trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis). I'm primarily a day trader because it suits my personal lifestyle but I do occasionally swing trade and position trade. Simply, my trade method is applicable for position trading, swing trading and day trading.

Image ##TheStrategyLab Chat Room is free. Members and I use the chat room to post WRB Analysis commentary, real-time trades and to post anything else related to trading. The chat room helps me tremendously in my own trading because I use it to document (journal) general volatility analysis involving WRB Analysis so that I can easily review at a later date my thoughts as I interacted with the markets...info I can not get from my broker statements. Also, this is not a signal calling chat room where a head trader tells you when to buy or sell and I do not have the time/energy/resources to manage a signal calling chat room. Access instructions for chat room @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=164

Image Price Action Analysis via Advance WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=119&t=718

Analysis -----> Trade Signals

Image Trade Signal Strategies via Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our price action trade strategies with support (answering your questions) prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR). All WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1 - 12 are included in the purchase of the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Image Trading Plan Daily Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=271&t=2883 contains brief information about trading plan, market context, brokers, trading time frames, position size management and other discussions.

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Market Context Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, Briefing, Reuters and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED/ECB/BOE/IMF actions or any important global economic events (e.g. Eurozone, MarketWatch.com) that had an impact on today's price action in many trading instruments I monitor during the trading day. Simply, I'm a strong believer that key market events causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility resulting in trade opportunities (swing points and strong continuation price actions) that reach profit targets. Thus, I pay attention to these key market events, intermarket analysis (e.g. Forex EurUsd, EuroFX 6E futures, Gold GC futures, Light Crude Oil (WTI) CL & Brent Oil futures, Eurex DAX futures, Euronext FTSE100 futures, Emini ES futures, Emini TF futures, Treasury ZB futures and U.S. Dollar Index futures) while using WRB Analysis from one trade to the next trade to give me the market context for price action trading before the appearance of my technical analysis trade signals. Therefore, I maintain these archives to allow me to understand what was happening on any given trading day in the past involving key market events to help better understand my trade decisions (day trading, swing trading, position trading)...something I can not get from my broker statements alone. Further, most financial websites remove (delete) their archives after a few years to make room for new content. Therefore, I maintain my own archives of the news content so that I have it available for me when financial websites no longer archives their content.

Attachment:
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click on the above image to view today's price action of key markets


4:10 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The stock market finished the first week of September on a defensive note after a daylong retreat pressured the S&P 500 (-1.5%) back to Wednesday's opening levels. The benchmark index lost 3.4% for the week while the Nasdaq Composite (-1.1%) outperformed, ending the week lower by 3.0%.

Equity indices slumped out of the gate, responding to the overnight weakness in the futures market. To that point, index futures began marching lower during the Asian session, setting pre-market lows after this morning's release of the Nonfarm Payrolls report for August. At first glance, the report appeared mediocre as the headline number came in below expectations (173,000; Briefing.com consensus 217,000); however, better than expected hourly earnings growth (+0.3%; consensus +0.2%) and a drop in the Unemployment Rate (to 5.1% from 5.3%) meant that the report is unlikely to deter the Federal Reserve from raising the fed funds rate as early as this month.

Treasuries fell from their overnight highs immediately after the report, but the 10-yr note found support on its flat line. The benchmark instrument traded little changed as the equity market opened, but returned to its overnight high as equities retreated throughout the day. Thanks to the intraday strength in Treasuries, the 10-yr yield fell four basis points to 2.12%.

Interestingly, the Dollar Index (96.27, -0.13) only saw a brief spike back to its flat line after the jobs report before setting a fresh session low. The greenback surrendered about 0.2% to the euro (1.1145) and gave up 0.9% against the yen (119.05).

In some ways, today's retreat was not that surprising since the U.S. market will be closed for Labor Day on Monday while potentially-volatile trading will resume in China after a two-day holiday. As a result, today's action at the NYSE floor generated a trading volume of 828 million, which was a bit below totals observed earlier this week.

Today's daylong retreat induced some demand for volatility protection, evidenced by the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX 27.87, +2.26), which returned near its closing level from August.

All ten sectors finished the day in negative territory with financials (-1.9%) and materials (-2.0%) ending at the bottom of the leaderboard. Elsewhere, the health care sector (-1.3%) finished a bit ahead of the broader market thanks to relative strength in biotechnology. The iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 337.79, -0.84) shed 0.3%, which helped the Nasdaq settle ahead of the S&P 500. Meanwhile, large cap Nasdaq components traded in-line with the broader market.

Elsewhere, the energy sector surrendered 1.7% on Friday, widening its weekly decline to 3.1%. On a related note, crude oil slid 0.7% to $45.97/bbl, ending the week higher by 1.7%.

Taking another look at the August Nonfarm Payrolls report:

Nonfarm payrolls increased by 173,000 (Briefing.com consensus 217,000)
July nonfarm payrolls revised to 245,000 from 215,000
June nonfarm payrolls revised to 245,000 from 231,000
Private sector payrolls increased by 140,000 (Briefing.com consensus 210,000)
July private sector payrolls revised to 224,000 from 210,000
June private sector payrolls revised to 218,000 from 227,000
Unemployment rate was 5.1% (Briefing.com consensus 5.2%) versus 5.3% in July
The U6 unemployment rate, which accounts for the total unemployed plus persons marginally attached to the labor force and the underemployed, was 10.3% versus 10.4% in July
Persons unemployed for 27 weeks or more accounted for 27.7% of the unemployed versus 26.9% in July
Average hourly earnings increased 0.3% (Briefing.com consensus 0.2%) after a 0.2% increase in July
Aggregate earnings were up 0.7% versus a downwardly revised 0.4% increase in July.
Over the last 12 months, average hourly earnings have risen 2.2% versus 2.1% in July
The average workweek was 34.6 hours (Briefing.com consensus 34.6) versus a downwardly revised 34.5 hours in July

Bond and equity markets will be closed on Monday in observance on Labor Day.

Nasdaq Composite -1.1% YTD
S&P 500 -6.7% YTD
Russell 2000 -5.6% YTD
Dow Jones Industrial Average -9.7% YTD

Week in Review: Volatility Persists

The trading week began on a defensive note with all eyes on crude oil after the energy component soared more than 10.0% on Friday. Specifically, crude prices were down 3.6% in early trading to $43.60 per barrel. They would settle the day up 8.8% at $49.20 per barrel, representing a huge 13.0% swing from low to settlement price. The reversal in oil prices triggered a reversal in the S&P 500 energy sector, which was down 2.6% shortly after the start of trading. It would end the day up 1.1%, which left it as the best-performing sector in the S&P 500, as well as the only sector to finish the day in positive territory. For its part, the S&P 500 surrendered 0.8%.

On Tuesday, the market began September on a defensive note with a broad-based retreat that sent the S&P 500 lower by 3.0%. The benchmark index widened its Q3 loss to 7.0% while the Dow (-2.8%) and Nasdaq Composite (-2.9%) spent the day just ahead of the S&P 500. Equity indices slumped at the start, responding to the overnight weakness in the futures market. To that point, index futures began retreating shortly after Monday's closing bell and extended their losses during the Asian session with disappointing manufacturing data from China contributing to the cautious posture. Specifically, the official Manufacturing PMI slipped to 49.7 from 50.0 while the Caixin Manufacturing PMI ticked up to 47.3 from 47.2, but both readings came in below 50.0, which signifies contraction. The Shanghai Composite began the month with a 1.2% slide while the disappointing data from China reminded global investors about the persistent growth concerns.

The stock market snapped its two-day skid on Wednesday with the Nasdaq Composite leading the advance. The tech-heavy index climbed 2.5% while the Dow (+1.8%) and S&P 500 (+1.8%) registered slimmer gains. Although the market ended the midweek session on a higher note, the advance did not feature the characteristics of a sharp bounce. Instead, stocks traded in sideways fashion before spiking to new highs during the final 30 minutes of the day. Nine sectors posted gains while the utilities space (UNCH) underperformed amid higher Treasury yields. The 10-yr note slumped in the morning, briefly retraced its loss during the session, and fell back to lows into the close. As a result, the 10-yr yield increased three basis points to 2.19%.

Thursday ended on a cautious note ahead of Friday's release of the Nonfarm Payrolls report for August (Briefing.com consensus 217,000). The S&P 500 added 0.1% after being up as much as 1.3% while the Nasdaq Composite (-0.4%) underperformed throughout the session. Equities climbed steadily through the first hour of action as global investors rushed into risk assets after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi indicated the ECB's quantitative easing program may be extended. To that point, the ECB made no changes to its policy course, but the central bank will now be allowed to buy up to 33.0% of any particular issue, up from the previous limit of 25.0%. On a related note, the ECB lowered its 2015 GDP forecast for the eurozone to 1.4% from 1.5%. The news from Europe pressured the euro, sending the single currency lower by 0.8% against the dollar to 1.1125. The euro remained in the neighborhood of its low throughout the day while stocks reached their highs during the first 90 minutes of the day before pulling back.

3:40 pm: [BRIEFING.COM]

Some commodities remained near today's lows following morning weakness, such as nat gas, oil and copper
WTI crude oil volatile again today, ultimately closing pit trading -0.7% at $45.97/barrel
Oct nat gas lost -2.6% to end at $2.65/MMBtu as oversupply issues in the industry remain
Dec gold lost -1% today at $1121.30/oz, while Dec silver -0.6% at $14.57/oz
Dec copper closed -2.5% at $2.32/lb

2:55 pm:

[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 trades lower by 1.8% with one hour remaining in the trading day. The benchmark index has perked up in recent action, but the five-point uptick comes after a session that saw steady selling since the opening bell.

That being said, today's final trading volume is likely to come in well below recent averages considering only 460 million shares have changed hands at the NYSE floor. Meanwhile, market breadth continues favoring the downside with nearly four listings trading in the red for each advancer.

2:30 pm:

[BRIEFING.COM] Equity indices have inched down to new lows in recent action as participants remain unwilling to increase their risk exposure ahead of the long weekend. The S&P 500 has widened its loss to 1.9%, which puts the index on track to end the week lower by 3.8%.

While stocks have spent the day in a steady retreat, the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX 29.37, +3.76) has enjoyed a steady ascent, which indicates rising demand for downside protection. The near-term volatility gauge is on course to end the day in the 29.00% area, which coincides with last year's highs.

Elsewhere, Treasuries have notched new highs for the day before returning to their prior levels. The 10-yr yield is lower by three basis points at 2.13% after briefly touching the 2.11% mark.

1:55 pm:

[BRIEFING.COM] The major averages continue drifting near their worst levels of the day.

Big upward revisions to June and July payrolls and strong wage growth outweighs the disappointment in headline August job gains.

Nonfarm payrolls added 173,000 new jobs in August after adding an upwardly revised 245,000 (from 215,000) in July. The Briefing.com Consensus expected nonfarm payrolls to increase by 217,000.

Private payrolls increased by 140,000 in August, down from an upwardly revised 224,000 (from 210,000) in July. The consensus expected private payrolls to increase by 210,000.

Headline payroll numbers failed to meet expectations. In fact, that was the slowest month for job growth since only 119,000 jobs were added in March.

The disappointment in the headlines, however, are easily tempered when looking at the strong upward revisions to June (245,000 from 231,000) and July.

More importantly, average hourly earnings accelerated, up 0.3% in August from a 0.2% gain in July. The average workweek also expanded to 34.6 hours from 34.5 hours.
Related Quotes

In all, aggregate earnings increased a solid 0.7% in August, up from a 0.4% gain in July.

That is the number the Fed is going to focus on when it decides on whether or not to raise rates at the September meeting. A 0.7% gain implies a strong acceleration in consumption growth -- possibly already indicated by the huge gain in August auto sales -- and also begets higher inflation pressures.

1:30 pm:

[BRIEFING.COM] The major U.S. indices have set new session lows in recent trade, drifting lower from the open in a quiet session ahead of the Labor Day holiday weekend.

A look inside the Dow Jones Industrial Average shows that Goldman Sachs (GS 179.25, -5.81), JP Morgan (JPM 60.78, -1.90), and DuPont (DD 49.13, -1.43) are underperforming. JPMorgan and Goldman are under pressure alongside peers in the financial sector, the worst performing industry in today's trade, as interest rates slump following this morning's nonfarm payroll data.

Conversely, Apple (AAPL 108.83, -1.54) is the best-performing Dow component, declining 1.4% vs. a decline of more than 2% for the DJIA. This morning, RBC issued a note on Apple previewing their 9/9 event, saying they expect it to be a positive catalyst for the stock and reiterated their Outperform rating and $150 price target.

At current levels, the DJIA is set to close out the week lower buy 3.5%, pushing its year-to-date losses to nearly 10% (9.9% currently).

12:55 pm:

[BRIEFING.COM] The major averages hover near their session lows at midday with the S&P 500 (-1.6%) trading behind the Nasdaq Composite (-1.1%), but ahead of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (-1.7%).

Equity indices slumped at the start of the trading day after this morning's release of the Nonfarm Payrolls report for August was met with selling in the futures market. Index futures spent the night in a steady retreat, notching their lows after the Employment Situation Report revealed the addition of 173,000 payrolls in August. The headline number came in below the Briefing.com consensus, which was pegged at 217,000, but the details of the report revealed some underlying strength. Specifically, hourly wages grew faster than expected (+0.3%; consensus +0.2%) and the unemployment rate fell to 5.1% from 5.3% (consensus 5.2%). Altogether, the report was viewed as good enough for the Federal Reserve to move ahead with a rate hike as early as the upcoming September meeting.

Meanwhile, the Treasury market showed some initial indecision, briefly surrendering its overnight gains, but that early move has been followed by a return to overnight highs with the 10-yr yield down four basis points at 2.12% at this juncture.

It is worth noting that the renewed strength in Treasuries has taken place amid uninspiring action in equities that has the S&P 500 trading just above its session low that was established within the past 30 minutes. In some ways, the cautious posture is not that surprising considering the U.S. market will be closed for Labor Day on Monday while trading in China will resume after a two-day holiday.

All ten sectors hold midday losses with heavily-weighted financials (-2.2%) at the bottom of the leaderboard while technology (-1.5%) and health care (-1.5%) trade just ahead of the broader market. High-beta chipmakers have helped the tech sector spent the first half ahead of the S&P 500, but that is just a small victory considering the PHLX Semiconductor Index is still down 1.0%.

Elsewhere, the health care sector and the Nasdaq both trade ahead of the S&P 500 as biotechnology shows some relative strength with iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 336.74, -1.89) lower by 0.6%.

Taking another look at the August Nonfarm Payrolls report:

Nonfarm payrolls increased by 173,000 (Briefing.com consensus 217,000)
July nonfarm payrolls revised to 245,000 from 215,000
June nonfarm payrolls revised to 245,000 from 231,000
Private sector payrolls increased by 140,000 (Briefing.com consensus 210,000)
July private sector payrolls revised to 224,000 from 210,000
June private sector payrolls revised to 218,000 from 227,000
Unemployment rate was 5.1% (Briefing.com consensus 5.2%) versus 5.3% in July
The U6 unemployment rate, which accounts for the total unemployed plus persons marginally attached to the labor force and the underemployed, was 10.3% versus 10.4% in July
Persons unemployed for 27 weeks or more accounted for 27.7% of the unemployed versus 26.9% in July
Average hourly earnings increased 0.3% (Briefing.com consensus 0.2%) after a 0.2% increase in July
Aggregate earnings were up 0.7% versus a downwardly revised 0.4% increase in July
Over the last 12 months, average hourly earnings have risen 2.2% versus 2.1% in July
The average workweek was 34.6 hours (Briefing.com consensus 34.6) versus a downwardly revised 34.5 hours in July

12:25 pm:

[BRIEFING.COM] Sideways action has dominated today's session after early selling drove the S&P 500 (-1.6%) into the 1,920-1,930 range. The financial sector (-2.1%) sits at the bottom of the leaderboard while heavily-weighted technology (-1.5%) and health care (-1.5%) trade in the neighborhood of the benchmark index.

Today's selling has caused the health care sector to turn negative for the year (-0.1% year-to-date), leaving the consumer discretionary space as the only sector that remains up in 2015. The discretionary sector is higher by 2.0% for the year and down 2.3% for the week, which puts the group ahead of its peers.

11:55 am:

[BRIEFING.COM] The market remains in a relatively slim range just above session lows with participants showing reluctance to make sizable bets ahead of a long weekend. The S&P 500 remains lower by 1.3%, which puts the benchmark index on course for a 3.2% weekly loss.

With the market tracking a noteworthy weekly loss, it should not be a surprise that all ten sectors are also on pace to end the week in negative territory. The utilities sector has had the weakest showing this week, falling 5.1% even though the benchmark 10-yr yield has dropped five basis points to 2.13% after surging 13 basis points last week. As for today, Treasuries have returned into the neighborhood of their overnight levels with the 10-yr yield down two basis points at 2.13%.

11:25 am:

[BRIEFING.COM] Not much change in the market with the major averages drifting near their session lows that were established within the first 30 minutes of the trading day.

The S&P 500 trades lower by 1.4% with investors showing caution ahead of a long weekend that will feature a resumption of trading in China on Monday as the Shanghai Composite will open after a two-day holiday. Of course the Monday session will not include the participation of U.S. investors as domestic bond and equity markets will be closed on Labor Day.

With the long weekend ahead and the Chinese market coming back online, the cautious posture is not entirely surprising. Volatility protection has been in demand today, evidenced by a two-point jump in the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX 27.84, +2.23), which hovers in the middle of its range from Wednesday.

10:55 am:

[BRIEFING.COM] Equity indices have ticked up off their lows, but they continue holding the bulk of their losses. The S&P 500 (-1.3%) has climbed about eight points off its low, but the remains down 24 points for the day.

Given its current standing, the benchmark index is set to end the week lower by 3.2% while the Nasdaq (-0.8%) is tracking a 2.8% decline. The tech-heavy Nasdaq trades a bit ahead of the broader market today thanks to outperformance in the biotech space. To that point, the iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 337.62, -1.01) is lower by 0.1% while the health care sector (-1.0%) sits closer to the S&P 500.

Elsewhere in the Nasdaq, large cap names like Apple (AAPL 109.49, -0.86), Google (GOOGL 629.90, -7.15), and Facebook (FB 87.19, -0.96) have not distinguished themselves, showing losses between 0.8% and 1.2% while the broader technology sector (-1.2%) trades in-line with the market.

10:35 am: [BRIEFING.COM]

The dollar index trended modestly negative overnight, and held losses going into the morning's US employment data
The data showed weaker-than-expected non-farm payroll growth of 173K (vs. 217K est.) and a moderate increase in hourly earnings
Upon release of the data, the dollar gapped higher and is now gradually extending that rally to trade slightly positive at +0.3% to 96.59
Apart from seeing selling pressure from the dollar, the oil market still has plenty of other catalysts, which are likely to keep price range-bound in the near term
Recent items include U.S. oil production data, which shows that production is slowing somewhat, and OPEC, which issued a bulletin that appears to be largely positive.
In general, oversupply issues remain along with these other catalysts, which is what may keep prices relatively contained
Following a fall to near the $45.80 level on the dollar's spike, WTI has regained some of those losses to stand at -0.3% to $46.62/barre.
Precious metals and copper are holding morning losses and remain just above their LoD, following the morning's job data
Gold is -0.5% to $1118.60/oz, silver is -0.8% to $14.59/oz and copper is -2.6% to $2.32/lb
Natural gas has been pummeled all morning, continuing momentum from yesterday's inventory report and additional forecasts for cooling national weather patterns
Nat gas is now -1.4% to $2.69/MMBtu

9:55 am:

[BRIEFING.COM] Equity indices remain pressured with the S&P 500 trading lower by 1.5%.

Commodity-linked energy (-2.0%) and materials (-2.0%) continue trading behind their peers while the health care sector (-1.2%) hovers ahead of the S&P 500, but still holds a solid loss. Biotechnology, meanwhile, outperforms with the iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 336.27, -2.34) down 0.7%.

Elsewhere, the top-weighted technology sector (-1.6%) trades in-line with the broader market while financials (-1.8%) lag.

Also of note, the Dollar Index (96.42, +0.02) has slipped back to its flat line after showing a slim gain earlier this morning.

9:40 am:

[BRIEFING.COM] As expected, the major averages began the trading day under pressure. The S&P 500 trades lower by 1.2% while the Nasdaq Composite (-1.0%) shows a slightly slimmer loss.

All ten sectors display early losses with nine groups down 1.0% or more. The materials sector (-1.6%) is the weakest performer in the early going while heavily-weighted financials (-1.3%), industrials (-1.4%), and health care (-1.3%) also trail the broader market.

Elsewhere, Treasuries have slipped from their recent levels, but they remain in the green with the 10-yr yield down one basis point at 2.15%.

9:10 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -30.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -60.20.

The stock market is on track for a lower open as S&P 500 futures trade 30 points below fair value. Index futures spent the entire night in negative territory, falling to lows earlier this morning after the Nonfarm Payrolls report crossed the wires.

At first glance, the jobs data was a disappointment (173,000; Briefing.com consensus 217,000), but the details revealed some underlying strength as hourly wages grew faster than expected (+0.3%; consensus +0.2%) and the unemployment rate fell to 5.1% from 5.3% (consensus 5.2%). As a result, the market has interpreted the report as good enough for the Fed to move ahead with a rate hike as early as the upcoming September meeting.

Interestingly, Treasuries remain near their overnight levels after seeing a brief drop immediately after the data was released. The 10-yr note holds a modest gain with its yield down two basis points at 2.14%.

9:00 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -33.70. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -65.70.

The S&P 500 futures trade 34 points below fair value.

There was a lot of weakness across markets in the Asia-Pacific region on Friday, led by Japan's Nikkei (-2.2%). Most reports attributed the selling pressure to nervousness ahead of the U.S. employment report, but it might have also been some nervousness ahead of China opening for trading again on Monday when the U.S. markets will be closed. China was closed Friday in celebration of Victory Day.

In economic data:
Japan's Average Cash Earnings +0.6% year-over-year (expected 2.3%; prior -2.5%)
Hong Kong's August Manufacturing PMI 44.4 (prior 48.2)

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Japan's Nikkei declined 2.2%, with exporters weighing on the back of yen strength. Broad-based losses were paced by the communications (-3.2%), consumer staples (-2.5%), and materials (-2.1%) sectors. Minebea (-5.8%), Shiseido (-5.7%), and Pioneer (-5.7%) were the top laggards while Shizuoka Bank (+3.2%) and Obayashi (+1.8%) led a small group of winners. Out of the 225 index members, 15 ended higher, 204 finished lower, and 6 were unchanged. For the week, the Nikkei declined 7.0%.
Hong Kong's Hang Seng declined 0.5%, ending near its lows for the session after a weaker than expected manufacturing PMI report, which reflected contraction for the sixth consecutive month. PetroChina (-3.7%), China Petroleum & Chemical (-3.4%), and Ping An Insurance Group (-3.3%) led the selling. Out of the 50 index members, 18 ended higher, 28 finished lower, and 4 were unchanged. For the week, the Hang Seng declined 3.6%.
China's Shanghai Composite: closed for holiday (Victory Day)

Major European indices trade lower across the board. On a separate note, Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann said he does not see a "lasting danger" for the world economy due to the uncertainty surrounding China.

Economic data was limited:
Eurozone Retail PMI 51.4 (prior 54.2) Germany's July Factory Orders -1.4% month-over-month (expected -0.6%; prior 1.8%)
France's August Consumer Confidence held at 93 (expected 94)

------

UK's FTSE is lower by 1.8% amid broad weakness. BP is among the weakest performers, down 3.3%, while consumer names also lag with Burberry, Dixons Carphone, and Next down between 2.7% and 3.1%.
Germany's DAX has given up 2.0% with all but one component in the red. Heavyweights Deutsche Bank, Commerzbank, and Bayer show losses between 2.9% and 3.4% while Lufthansa outperforms, trading higher by 6.9%.
In France, the CAC has slumped 2.1% with all 40 index members in the red. Kering, Peugeot, and Societe Generale lead the slide with losses between 2.8% and 5.2%.

8:32 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -17.60. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -32.70.

The S&P 500 futures trade 18 points below fair value.

August nonfarm payrolls came in at 173,000 while the Briefing.com consensus expected a reading of 217,000. The prior month's reading was revised up to 245,000 from 215,000. Nonfarm private payrolls added 140,000 against the 210,000 expected by the consensus. The unemployment rate fell to 5.1% from 5.3% while the Briefing.com consensus expected a downtick to 5.2%.

Hourly earnings rose 0.3%, while the consensus expected an uptick of 0.2%. The average workweek was reported at 34.6, which is what the consensus expected.

7:55 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -23.40. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -47.30.

U.S. equity futures trade near their pre-market lows after sliding throughout the night. The S&P 500 futures hover 23 points below fair value, but the pre-market standing could change drastically in 30 minutes once the Nonfarm Payrolls report for August crosses the wires (Briefing.com consensus 217,000).

Treasuries hold gains after spending the entire night in positive territory with the 10-yr yield down two basis points at 2.14%.

In U.S. corporate news of note:

Caterpillar (CAT 73.38, -1.07): -1.4% after Robert W. Baird downgraded the stock to 'Neutral' from 'Outperform.'

Reviewing overnight developments:

Asian markets ended lower. Japan's Nikkei -2.5%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng -0.5%, and China's Shanghai Composite remained closed for Victory Day.
In economic data:
Japan's Average Cash Earnings +0.6% year-over-year (expected 2.3%; prior -2.5%)
Hong Kong's August Manufacturing PMI 44.4 (prior 48.2)
In news:
Hong Kong's Manufacturing PMI dropped to a six-year low in August with the employment component seeing the sharpest decline in more than 12 years

Major European indices trade lower across the board. France's CAC -2.3%, Germany's DAX -2.1%, and UK's FTSE -1.8%. Elsewhere, Italy's MIB -2.6% and Spain's IBEX -2.0%.
Economic data was limited:
Eurozone Retail PMI 51.4 (prior 54.2) Germany's July Factory Orders -1.4% month-over-month (expected -0.6%; prior 1.8%)
France's August Consumer Confidence held at 93 (expected 94)
Among news of note:
Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann said he does not see a "lasting danger" for the world economy due to the uncertainty surrounding China

5:55 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -19.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -41.10.

5:55 am: [BRIEFING.COM] Nikkei...17792.16...-390.20...-2.20%. Hang Seng...20840.61...-94.30...-0.50%.

5:55 am: [BRIEFING.COM] FTSE...6095.24...-98.70...-1.60%. DAX...10139.60...-178.20...-1.70%.

Special thanks to Bloomberg, Briefing, Reuters and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader Image@ http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader

http://www.thestrategylab.com
Phone: +1 708 572-4885
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