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 Post subject: June 29th Monday Trade Results - Profit $4937.50
PostPosted: Tue Jun 30, 2015 4:34 am 
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Joined: Sat Jan 10, 2009 2:06 pm
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Location: Canada
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Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
Phone: +1 708 572-4885
Free Chat Room: http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=164
Business Hours: 8am - 5pm est (Mon - Fri)
wrbanalysis@gmail.com (24/7)
http://twitter.com/wrbtrader (24/7)

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click on the above image to view today's performance verification

Price Action Trade Performance for Today: Emini TF ($TF_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.00 points, Emini ES ($ES_F) futures @ $4,937.50 dollars or +98.75 points, Light Crude Oil CL ($CL_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.00 points, Gold GC ($GC_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.00 points and EuroFX 6E ($6E_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.0000 ticks. Total Profit @ $4,937.50 dollars

Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures: 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures: 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup
Light Crude Oil CL (WTI) Futures: 1 tick or 0.01 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup
Gold GC Futures: 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup
EuroFX 6E Futures: 1 tick or 0.0001 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup

Trade Log: All of my trades were posted real-time in the timestamp ##TheStrategyLab free chat room. You can read today's price action trading information about my trades (e.g. time, price entry, contract size, price exit) as the trade traversed to its completion. Also, sometimes I'll post real-time trading tips in ##TheStrategyLab chat room involving WRBs, WRB Hidden GAPs, Key Market Events (KME), Tutorial Chapters 2 & 3, WRB Zones, Reaction Highs/Lows, Contracting Volatility or Expanding Volatility. Its all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=144&t=2109

Quote:
All of my real-time posted trades involves price action concepts from the WRB Analysis free study guide, Advance WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 4 - 12 and the Volatility Trading Report (VTR) trade signal strategies. Analysis -----> Trade Signals

Also, posted below are direct links to information about my price action trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis). I'm primarily a day trader because it suits my personal lifestyle but I do occasionally swing trade and position trade. Simply, my trade method is applicable for position trading, swing trading and day trading.

Image ##TheStrategyLab Chat Room is free. Members and I use the chat room to post WRB Analysis commentary, real-time trades and to post anything else related to trading. The chat room helps me tremendously in my own trading because I use it to document (journal) general volatility analysis involving WRB Analysis so that I can easily review at a later date my thoughts as I interacted with the markets...info I can not get from my broker statements. Also, this is not a signal calling chat room where a head trader tells you when to buy or sell and I do not have the time/energy/resources to manage a signal calling chat room. Access instructions for chat room @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=164

Image Price Action Analysis via Advance WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=119&t=718

Analysis -----> Trade Signals

Image Trade Signal Strategies via Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our price action trade strategies with support (answering your questions) prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR). All WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1 - 12 are included in the purchase of the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Image Trading Plan Daily Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=265&t=2781 contains brief information about trading plan, market context, brokers, trading time frames, position size management and other discussions.

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Market Context Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, Briefing, Reuters and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED/ECB/BOE/IMF actions or any important global economic events (e.g. Eurozone, MarketWatch.com) that had an impact on today's price action in many trading instruments I monitor during the trading day. Simply, I'm a strong believer that key market events causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility resulting in trade opportunities (swing points and strong continuation price actions) that reach profit targets. Thus, I pay attention to these key market events, intermarket analysis (e.g. Forex EurUsd, EuroFX 6E futures, Gold GC futures, Light Crude Oil (WTI) CL & Brent Oil futures, Eurex DAX futures, Euronext FTSE100 futures, Emini ES futures, Emini TF futures, Treasury ZB futures and U.S. Dollar Index futures) while using WRB Analysis from one trade to the next trade to give me the market context for price action trading before the appearance of my technical analysis trade signals. Therefore, I maintain these archives to allow me to understand what was happening on any given trading day in the past involving key market events to help better understand my trade decisions (day trading, swing trading, position trading)...something I can not get from my broker statements alone. Further, most financial websites remove (delete) their archives after a few years to make room for new content. Therefore, I maintain my own archives of the news content so that I have it available for me when financial websites no longer archives their content.

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click on the above image to view today's price action of key markets


4:20 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] Greek leaders said 'no' to the Eurogroup's cash-for-reform proposal and investors around the world in turn said 'no' to buying stocks on Monday. Just about every major market closed down at least 2.0%.

The hardest-hit markets were the European bourses, which included Germany's DAX Index (-3.6%) and Spain's IBEX (-4.6%). Japan's Nikkei dropped 2.9% while China's Shanghai Composite fell 3.3% despite the People's Bank of China cutting its benchmark lending and deposit rates by 25 basis points each to 4.85% and 2.00%, respectively.

In comparison, the U.S. stock market fared reasonably well, yet that doesn't mean it did well. Hit with broad-based selling pressure, the S&P 500 declined 2.1% as buyers basically wanted no part of today's action outside a few areas of specific interest.

One area was the utilities sector (-0.6%), which traded with a modest gain for most of the day before ultimately feeling the gravitational pull of the weak market. Another area was the Treasury market, which attracted safe-haven flows. The 10-yr note surged more than a point and saw its yield drop 15 basis points to 2.33%.

The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX 19.20, +5.18, +37.0%), meanwhile, made a huge move as investors sought hedges to protect against downside risk. The scope of the move underscored the concerns surrounding the situation in Greece, which imposed capital controls and closed its banks, and how underappreciated the risk of getting to the point of referendum really was.

In light of the latest developments, Standard & Poor's downgraded Greece to CCC- from CCC and said it now thought there was a 50% probability that Greece will leave the eurozone. Additionally, there was little confidence in the thought that Greece will make its EUR 1.6 billion debt payment to the IMF on Tuesday.

Notwithstanding the latter developments, the euro reversed early losses and strung together a rally that saw it gain 0.8% against the dollar on Monday. That move, and a strong gain by the yen, pressured the U.S. Dollar Index, which fell 0.6% to 94.87.

The weaker dollar, however, did not help oil prices, which declined 2.3% to $58.32 per barrel as demand concerns tied to the macro situation took root.

In the stock market, the financial sector (-2.4%) got hit the hardest as Greek contagion concerns and a flatter yield curve got the better of the sector, which had been outperforming in recent weeks on curve steepening and the thinking Greece and its creditors would strike an eleventh-hour solution. Misery of course loves company and the financial sector had plenty of it. Tagging along for the joyless ride were the materials (-2.4%), health care (-2.3%), consumer discretionary (-2.3%), and information technology (-2.2%) sectors, but every sector was down for the day.

Every stock in the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost ground, too, but none more so than Goldman Sachs (GS 207.65, -5.52), which happens to be the highest-priced stock in the price-weighted average. With Monday's retreat, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell below its 200-day moving average. The S&P 500 did not, but stands less than 10 points above that key line of technical support after closing on its lows and turning negative for the year (-0.1%).

The only economic release today was the Pending Home Sales report for May. Keeping with the theme of the day, it disappointed with a 0.9% increase (Briefing.com consensus +1.4%).

Volume was heavier-than-average with 853 million shares changing hands at the NYSE where decliners outpaced advancers by a 10-to-1 margin. In turn, volume in the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY 205.47, -4.35) was the heaviest it has been (185.7 million) since April 17.

Turning our attention to Tuesday, headlines out of Greece will continue to hold sway, but it will be the response around the globe to Monday's equity market losses that will be the focal point. U.S. data will include the Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index for April (Briefing.com consensus +5.6%; prior +5.0%), the Chicago PMI for June (Briefing.com consensus 50.0; prior 46.2), and the June Consumer Confidence report (Briefing.com consensus 97.5; prior 95.4).

3:35 pm: [BRIEFING.COM]

The dollar index slid lower today, but this didn't provide much upside to commodities.
Crude oil traded in the red all day, helped by Greece news.
Aug crude oil ended the day -$1.35 to $58.32/barrel. Aug natural gas rose $0.04 to $2.81/MMBtu
Metals were mixed/mostly flat to given the action in the Greece/ dollar index.
Aug gold ended today's floor trading session $5.90 lower to $1179.10/oz.
July silver lost $0.07 to $15.70/oz and July copper ended unchanged at $2.63/lb.

3:00 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] It's still not looking great for the stock market, which tried to bounce in the past half hour but still remains stuck in a deep rut.

Every sector is down at least 1.0% now with the exception of the utilities sector, which is up 0.2%.

News hit in the past hour that S&P downgraded Greece to CCC- from CCC and said it places a 50% probability now on Greece leaving the eurozone. Not sure why the market would act surprised at that headline, but the piling-on effect didn't do anything to help today's negative sentiment.

Notwithstanding today's large losses, there hasn't been any real signs of panic selling even though there have been signs of panic buying in the CBOE Volatility Index (18.45, +4.43). The latter has made a monstrous 31.3% move today and is trading at its highest level since February.

2:25 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] Following a half-hearted recovery try after an opening sell-off, the major indices have been bleeding lower all day, setting new session lows with each passing hour. It's a day so far anyway where nobody has wanted to step in front of things to defend the market with an aggressive bid.

The reluctance is understandable given the negative surprise out of Greece and the specter of the June employment report on Thursday, which could make things even more interesting if it shows added wage inflation and sparks rate-hike concerns.

For now, there is very little that is working, which is even more bothersome because the areas that had been working -- financials (-2.1%) and semiconductors (-2.6%) for instance -- are getting hit the hardest in today's risk aversion trade. The loss of their leadership is simply creating more nervousness about the market's near-term prospects.

With the latest slide, the S&P 500 is pushing levels last seen at the start of April.

1:55 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] With no significant economic releases today, we look toward the June employment report that is set to be released on Thursday, July 2.

Nonfarm payrolls added 280,000 jobs in May after adding 221,000 in April. The Briefing.com Consensus expects nonfarm payrolls added 230,000 new jobs in June.

The private sector added 262,000 jobs in May, up from a 206,000 increase in April. The consensus expects private payrolls increased by 225,000 new jobs in June.

Conditions are ripe for another month of strong job gains.

Even though the initial claims level has moved off its 15-year lows, the trend still supports a labor sector that is nearing full employment. Furthermore, the JOLTS report showed that businesses currently have the most unfilled job openings since the dataset was created in December 2000.

1:30 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The major indices are little changed since our last update, still sporting heavy declines amid this weekends Greece developments.

A look inside the Dow Jones Industrial Average shows Visa (V 67.04, -1.71), DuPont (DD 64.04, -1.56), and Boeing (BA 139.37, -3.11) are underperforming.

Conversely, Pfizer (PFE 33.84, -0.08) is the best-performing Dow component.

To start the week, the DJIA is down 1.26% and now down 1.6% in June as we approach the end of the month.

1:00 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The U.S. stock market has spent the entirety of today's session mired deep in negative territory, much like its foreign counterparts which were sent reeling by the news the Greece's leaders have rejected the Eurogroup's cash-for-reform proposal. Instead they are leaving the decision in the hands of the Greek people, which will vote their position in a July 5 referendum.

This was not the base-case outcome in the market's mind; consequently, this latest development has been regarded as a surprise and not a pleasant one at that.

A 'no' vote would seemingly solidify Greece defaulting on its debt and could very well set the table for an exit from the Eurozone. Those considerations and the unknown consequences of such developments have gotten under investors' skin today and have catalyzed increased selling activity as the second quarter draws to a close.

The selling pressure has been broad-based, yet there has been one exception to the selling rule. The utilities sector (+0.5%) has been trading to the upside since the start of today's action, underpinned by the safe-haven positioning that has taken market rates lower and the sector's standing as a defensive outlet in times of uncertainty.

In the same vein, the countercyclical telecom services (-0.8%) and consumer staples (-0.8%) sectors are outperforming the S&P 500 (-1.3%), although they are not strong on an absolute basis.

The biggest pocket of weakness has been the financial sector (-1.7%), which has been knocked back on both a flattening yield curve and concerns regarding exposure to potential contagion risk from the Greek affair not ending favorably.

The weight of the sector's losses, as well as the losses registered by the information technology sector (-1.5%), has inhibited any recovery efforts. By and large, though, there has been a buyer's malaise across most areas of the market that has left the major indices trolling their lows for the day as the New York lunch hour comes to an end.

The two areas of notable strength are the U.S. Treasury market and the CBOE Volatility Index ("VIX"). The former has attracted a safe-haven bid that has the 10-yr note up more than a point and its yield down 12 basis points to 2.35%. Meanwhile, the VIX index has soared 24%, reflecting not only a rush to put on hedges for downside protection but also an underappreciation of the risk that Greece might not acquiesce to an eleventh-hour solution after all.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average reflects the broad-based nature of today's selling. All 30 Dow components are trading lower at this time, led by Goldman Sachs (GS 208.99, -4.19), which is the highest-priced of them all and the biggest drag on the price-weighted average.

In other developments, the People's Bank of China cut both its benchmark lending and deposit rates by 25 basis points each to 4.85% and 2.00%, respectively. That didn't stir the speculative fires in the Shanghai Composite, which declined 3.3% on Monday and tailed into a bear market, having dropped 22% from its June 12 peak.

Today's economic calendar was light on offerings. The only release was the Pending Home Sales Index for May and it was weaker than expected, showing a 0.9% gain (Briefing.com consensus +1.4%) versus a downwardly revised 2.7% increase (from +3.4%) in April.

Volume has been heavier than average at the NYSE where decliners lead advancers by a 7-to-1 margin.

12:30 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The major indices can't find a bid and are testing new lows for the day in what has been a lopsided affair governed by sellers.

The concerns about the Greek situation have played the key part in driving the indices lower, although some month-end positioning could also be playing a part in today's action as participants ponder whether the market might finally be on track to experience its first correction of 10% or more in over three years.

Aside from Greece, there are other matters weighing on the mind of participants that include the upcoming second quarter earnings reporting period, valuations, the prospect of a rate hike from the Fed as early as September (which New York Fed President Dudley suggested is still in play), and the rapid descent of the Chinese stock market to name some.

Related Quotes

12:00 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The CBOE Volatility Index (17.38, +3.36, +24.2%) has made a huge move today, demonstrating two things: (1) investors are looking to hedge against downside risk and (2) the risk of Greece getting to the point it has gotten to with its creditors was underappreciated.

In any event, the surge in the VIX reflects the state of nervousness about the Greek matter and is somewhat representative of why the market has struggled to mount a recovery try (i.e. participants are nervous).

The A/D line reflects the dearth of buying interest. Decliners lead advancers by nearly a 6-to-1 margin at the NYSE and by roughly a 4-to-1 margin at the Nasdaq. There is clearly room for improvement in today's market. The question is, will buyers step up or keep to the sidelines like they have most of the day?

Separately, the Russell 2000 is down 1.2% as many of the domestically-oriented small cap stocks are also having a tough go of it today.

11:25 am: [BRIEFING.COM] The major indices all slipped to new session lows in the last half hour without a discernible news catalyst. It was a noteworthy move considering it dropped the S&P 500 below 2080, which is the low end of the trading range that has persisted since early April.

The violation of that area opens the door to a possible test of 2074/2072, which is the next area of technical support.

The latest slide had the same broad-based disposition of the opening weakness and has resulted in seven sectors now showing losses in excess of 1.0%.

Today's relative strength leaders are the market's more defensive-oriented areas, which include utilities (+0.7%), telecom services (-0.4%), and consumer staples (-0.7%).

11:00 am: [BRIEFING.COM] The buy-the-dip crowd is keeping a low profile so far as the major indices remain pinned close to their lows for the session. A weak showing from its most influential leadership groups helps explain the difficulty the indices are having in sustaining a recovery try.

The financial sector (-1.4%) is the weakest link today while the information technology sector (-0.9%) tracks close behind. While the health care sector (-0.8%) is actually performing slightly better than the broader market, it isn't helping things either being mired in negative territory.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average reflects the broad-based selling pressure seen in today's market. 29 out of 30 components are sporting a loss, none larger and more influential than Goldman Sachs (GS 209.42, -3.75), which is the highest-priced component in the price-weighted average.

Pfizer (PFE 34.03, +0.11) is the one and only gainer among Dow components.

10:35 am: [BRIEFING.COM]

The dollar traded broadly higher overnight, as high as 96.3 on uncertainty emanating from Greek developments out of the Eurozone
As early trading commenced however, a sell-off in the dollar gave up most of the dollar's overnight gains, and gave commodities a break from the index's selling pressure
The dollar has continued to sell-off and is now -0.1% to 95.40
Crude saw selling pressure on the strong dollar overnight, bouncing off the $58 level as Greek macro headlines and the Iranian nuclear talk deadline strongly drove sentiment.
After the bounce from overnight lows, crude has seen a gradual, extended rally to erase a portion of its prior losses, but is still down 1.6% to $58.66/barrel
Nat gas saw early weakness in-line with oil, but has lifted in recent trade to near its HoD at +1.8% to $2.82/MMBtu
Copper was red overnight, but saw positive price momentum in early am trade on a 25 bps rate reduction and lower bank reserve ratio requirements out of China
The demand tailwind out of China has largely netted neutral against other macro headlines, as the July copper contract is currently -0.2% to $2.64/lb
Gold is modestly higher for the session, benefiting slightly from risk-off trades as August gold is +0.2% to $1176.00/oz while July silver is -0.1% to $15.72/oz

10:00 am: [BRIEFING.COM] Two things are certain at the moment with respect to the U.S. stock market: (1) the major indices are all lower and (2) the U.S. stock market is faring much better than its foreign counterparts.

The S&P 500 dropped 0.9% right after the opening bell, but has cut its losses and is now down 0.6%. The opening low took the S&P 500 to 2082.30, which is basically the low end of the trading range that has persisted since early-April (2080-2120). Support held there and some buying interest was found.

There still isn't a lot of conviction on the part of buyers, outside of those looking to add some portfolio insurance. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX 16.24, +2.22) is up 16.8% in early action as the uncertainty related to Greece has sparked interest in hedging to protect against downside risk.

The utilities sector (+0.6%) continues to outshine all other sectors, but even with today's gain, it is still the worst-performing sector month-to-date (-4.9%) and quarter-to-date (-5.4%).

Separately, it was just reported that pending home sales rose 0.9% in May (Briefing.com consensus +1.4%).

9:40 am: [BRIEFING.COM] It's no surprise that the major indices started today's session on a decidedly lower note. It was presaged by the futures market and pretty much pre-ordained by the considerable weakness in foreign equity markets, which followed in the wake of the Greek government's rejection of the Eurogroup's cash-for-reform proposal.

The point of interest now is how the U.S. market will fare the remainder of the session. That is, will it garner a healthy buy-the-dip bid that is predicated on the belief the U.S. equity market is the safest place to be right now (relative to other equity markets) or will it be kept on its heels by anxious behavior related to the Greek situation?

At the moment, losses in the influential information technology (-1.0%) and financial (-1.0%) sectors are pressuring the major indices. The one, winning standout is the utilities sector (+0.3%), which is attracting some support with today's drop in market rates.

9:15 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -20.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -48.50. European equity markets are of their worst levels of the day, yet the stage is set for a negative start here. The S&P futures are 0.9% below fair value.

Presumably, the financial sector will be a weak link at the start of trading as market rates have come down in a safe-haven bid, taking away some of the enthusiasm that has been priced into the financials of late that has been based partly on yield curve steepening.

There hasn't been much in the way of notable corporate news today. Instead the Greek matter has dominated the headlines and has prompted a risk-off mindset that has manifested itself in the trading of equity futures (weaker), bonds (stronger), oil (weaker), and gold (stronger).

Interestingly, the U.S. Dollar Index is little changed as a stronger yen has helped offset the weakness in the euro.

8:47 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -19.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -50.00. The futures market is well off its overnight lows, but is finding it difficult to extend its recovery effort in front of the open for the cash market.

Given the tenor of things abroad and the recognition that the S&P futures are about 1.0% below fair value, it is reasonable to expect some broad-based, and perhaps indiscriminate, selling pressure at the start of trading.

Elsewhere, oil prices are down 1.2% to $58.93/bbl; gold prices are up 0.8% to $1182.70/troy ounce, and the U.S. Dollar Index is up 0.1% at 95.53. The 10-yr Treasury note has caught some safe-haven action as its yield has dropped 11 basis points to 2.36%.

8:18 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -20.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -47.50. The early scene remains much the same as the market's orientation remains rooted in the uncertainty surrounding the Greek matter. That uncertainty has kept buyers at a distance and is setting the stage for a decidedly lower open for the cash market.

What remains to be seen is if the U.S. market catches a buy-the-dip bid on the thinking that it is the best place to be invested at this juncture. That bid, should it happen, would arrive in the wake of an opening decline of about 1.0% that is currently being projected by the S&P futures.

7:43 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -21.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -51.80. The S&P futures are trading deep in negative territory, following form with foreign markets, which were sent reeling on the news that Greek leaders have rejected the Eurogroup's cash-for-reform proposal. The latter has stirred concerns about a possible debt default and exit from the eurozone in the event Greek citizens vote 'no' on a July 5 referendum related to the bailout offer proposed by the Eurogroup. Currently, the S&P futures are roughly 1.0% below fair value. That actually marks a considerable improvement from overnight lows that had them 1.9% below fair value.

Today's economic data will be limited to the Pending Home Sales report for May, which will be released at 10:00 ET.

In U.S. corporate news of note:

General Electric (GE 27.09): to divest its U.S., Mexico, Australia and New Zealand fleet business to Element Financial Corp (ELEEF) for ~$7 bln
Humana (HUM 195.50): Wall Street Journal reports that company could possibly announce deal with either Aetna (AET) or Cigna (CI) as early as today
Macy's (M 69.85): Deutsche Bank downgrades to Sell from Buy

Reviewing overnight developments:

Asian markets ended sharply lower. China's Shanghai Composite -3.3%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng -2.6%, and Japan's Nikkei -2.9%
Economic data was limited:
Japan's May Industrial Production -2.2% month-over-month (expected -0.8%; prior 1.2%) while May Retail Sales +3.0% year-over-year (consensus +2.3%; prior +4.9%)
Hong Kong's May Retail Sales -0.1% year-over-year (last -2.1%)
In news:
The People's Bank of China cut its benchmark lending rate 25 bps to 4.85% and its deposit rate 25 bps to 2.00%
Major European indices are trading sharply lower. Germany's DAX Index -3.3%, England's FTSE 100 -1.8%, and Frances's CAC 40 -3.6%. Elsewhere, Spain's IBEX -4.0% and Italy's FTSE MIB -4.1%.
In economic data:
Eurozone June Business and Consumer Survey 103.5 (consensus 103.8; prior 103.8). June Business Climate 0.1 (expected 0.3; prior 0.3) while June Consumer Confidence -6.0 (expected -6.0; previous -6.0)
UK's May BoE Consumer Credit GBP 1.001 billion (expected GBP 1.10 billion; previous GBP 1.17 billion). Separately, May Mortgage Approvals 64,430 (consensus 68,700; last 67,580) and Mortgage Lending GBP 2.10 billion (prior GBP 1.70 billion)
Spain's May Retail Sales +3.4% year-over-year (previous 3.9%)
Germany's June CPI will be reported at 8:00 ET (expected 0.1% month-over-month; prior 0.1% month-over-month)
Among news of note:
Greek leaders rejected Eurogroup's cash-for-reform proposal. Greek parliament approves July 5 referendum on the issue. In the meantime, Greek banks and the stock market are closed, and depositors are limited to EUR 60 daily ATM withdrawal limit.

5:51 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -19.40. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -46.10.

5:51 am: [BRIEFING.COM] Nikkei...20109.95...-596.20...-2.90%. Hang Seng...25966.98...-696.90...-2.60%.

5:51 am: [BRIEFING.COM] FTSE...6641.76...-111.90...-1.70%. DAX...11126.20...-365.70...-3.20%.

Global Stock Volatility Soars as Sleepy VIX Awakens on Greece

by Jennifer Kaplan
June 29, 2015 — 1:15 PM EDT / Updated on June 29, 2015 — 4:20 PM EDT

Gauges of stock volatility surged around the world as the weekend meltdown in Greece collided with China’s market unraveling and traders bought hedges to stanch the bleeding.

The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index surged 35 percent, its biggest increase in two years, while a gauge of European share swings climbed 15 percent to an eight-month high. The surge shook U.S. traders out of a six-month-long slumber in which daily changes in the S&P 500 failed to exceed 2 percent for the longest stretch since 2007.

“Imagine you look out your window and four people’s houses are on fire and your house is not, and you can pick up the phone and call your insurance agent and get fire insurance,” said Mark Sebastian, options trader and founder of Option Pit, a Chicago-based education and consulting firm. “That’s essentially what we’re seeing right now.”

Gains in volatility reflect wider price swings as well as demand among traders for hedges in the options market.

The VIX jumped almost 5 points to 18.85, the highest since February, while Europe’s VStoxx Index posted its biggest gain since April, data compiled by Bloomberg show. A measure of China turbulence hit the highest in seven years as the Shanghai Composite Index slumped 3.3 percent into a bear market.

Volatility was whipped up as European stock indexes fell between 2 and 4 percent and the S&P 500 dropped to a three-month low, erasing all 2015 gains. Greece closed its banks and imposed capital controls after Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras on Friday called for a July 5 referendum on austerity measures demanded by creditors.

Woke Up

Traders are betting the calm that has ruled American equities for the better part of three years is in danger. The S&P 500 has had zero declines of 10 percent or more since 2011, part of a six-year bull market in which prices tripled.

“The U.S. has woken up a little bit to the risk from Greece,” Nick Kalivas, a senior equity product strategist at Invesco Powershares in Chicago, said by phone. “Europe has been seeing volatility lift with the VStoxx climbing since March, while the U.S. has been much more sleepy and more complacent.”

The VIX has hovered at an average level of 13.7 during the second quarter, extending a four-year decline that began during the last Greek debt crisis. Today’s close is roughly the equivalent of the average level of volatility in 2012, a year the S&P 500 rose 13 percent.

“The smart money still thinks that something is going to get resolved, but it seems a lot less sure of itself, I can tell you that much,” said Sebastian.

Bear Market

Bailout negotiations between Greece and its creditors broke down and the country announced a countrywide referendum on proposed aid. Greece’s equity market was shut, though a U.S.- listed exchange traded fund tracking its shares lost 20 percent.

While equity options registered rising trepidation, stress measures in credit markets showed the threat of contagion is limited. The difference between the rate on a two-year interest-rate swap and Treasury yields, the swap spread, rose to 24.56 basis points Monday. It was higher on June 22.

In China, the central bank’s effort to boost confidence with an interest-rate cut was overshadowed by investors sprinting for the wings. The retreat marked the end to the nation’s longest-ever bull market, a rally that’s lured record numbers of individual investors.

The Shanghai Composite’s 10-day volatility reading jumped to 60 on Friday, the highest since November 2008, while its 3.8 percent average intraday move this month is more than four times bigger than that of the S&P 500.

Special thanks to Bloomberg, Briefing, Reuters and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader Image@ http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader

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