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 Post subject: January 13th Tuesday Trade Results - Profit $11100.00
PostPosted: Wed Jan 14, 2015 1:52 am 
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Joined: Sat Jan 10, 2009 2:06 pm
Posts: 4335
Location: Canada
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Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
Phone: +1 708 572-4885
Free Chat Room: http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=164
Business Hours: 8am - 5pm est (Mon - Fri)
questions@thestrategylab.com (24/7)
http://twitter.com/wrbtrader (24/7)

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click on the above image to view today's performance verification

Price Action Trade Performance for Today: Emini TF ($TF_F) futures @ $1,100.00 dollars or +11.00 points, Emini ES ($ES_F) futures @ $10,000.00 dollars or +200.00 points, Light Crude Oil CL ($CL_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.00 points, Gold GC ($GC_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.00 points and EuroFX 6E ($6E_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.0000 ticks. Total Profit @ $11,100.00 dollars

Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures: 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures: 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup
Light Crude Oil CL (WTI) Futures: 1 tick or 0.01 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup
Gold GC Futures: 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup
EuroFX 6E Futures: 1 tick or 0.0001 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup

Trade Log: All of my trades were posted real-time in the timestamp ##TheStrategyLab chat room. You can read today's price action trading information about my trades (e.g. time, price entry, contract size, price exit) as the trade traversed to its completion. Also, sometimes I'll post real-time trading tips in ##TheStrategyLab chat room involving WRBs, WRB Hidden GAPs, Key Market Events (KME), Tutorial Chapters 2 & 3, WRB Zones, Reaction Highs/Lows, Contracting Volatility or Expanding Volatility. Its all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=139&t=1980

Quote:
All of my real-time posted trades involves price action concepts from the WRB Analysis free study guide, Advance WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 4 - 12 and the Volatility Trading Report (VTR) trade signal strategies. Analysis -----> Trade Signals

Also, posted below are direct links to information about my price action trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis). I'm primarily a day trader because it suits my personal lifestyle but I do occasionally swing trade and position trade. Simply, my trade method is applicable for position trading, swing trading and day trading.

Image ##TheStrategyLab Chat Room is free. Members and I use the chat room to post WRB Analysis commentary, real-time trades and to post anything else related to trading. The chat room helps me tremendously in my own trading because I use it to document (journal) general volatility analysis involving WRB Analysis so that I can easily review at a later date my thoughts as I interacted with the markets...info I can not get from my broker statements. Also, this is not a signal calling chat room where a head trader tells you when to buy or sell and I do not have the time/energy/resources to manage a signal calling chat room. Access instructions for chat room @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=164

Image Price Action Analysis via Advance WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=119&t=718

Analysis -----> Trade Signals

Image Trade Signal Strategies via Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our price action trade strategies with support (answering your questions) prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

All WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1 - 12 are included in the purchase of the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Image Trading Plan Daily Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=255&t=2625

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Market Context Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, CNNMoney, Reuters and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED/ECB/BOE/IMF actions or any important global economic events (e.g. Eurozone, MarketWatch.com) that had an impact on today's price action in many trading instruments I monitor during the trading day. Simply, I'm a strong believer that key market events causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility resulting in trade opportunities (swing points and strong continuation price actions) that reach profit targets. Thus, I pay attention to these key market events, intermarket analysis (e.g. Forex EurUsd, EuroFX 6E futures, Gold GC futures, Light Crude Oil (WTI) CL & Brent Oil futures, Eurex DAX futures, Euronext FTSE100 futures, Emini ES futures, Emini TF futures, Treasury ZB futures and U.S. Dollar Index futures) while using WRB Analysis from one trade to the next trade to give me the market context for price action trading before the appearance of my technical analysis trade signals. Therefore, I maintain these archives to allow me to understand what was happening on any given trading day in the past involving key market events to help better understand my trade decisions (day trading, swing trading, position trading)...something I can not get from my broker statements alone. Further, most financial websites remove (delete) their archives after a few years to make room for new content. Therefore, I maintain my own archives of the news content so that I have it available for me when financial websites no longer archives their content.

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click on the above image to view today's price action of key markets

4:10 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The stock market enjoyed broad-based support at the start of the Tuesday session, but the opposite was true when the session ended. The S&P 500 lost 0.3% with eight sectors settling in the red.

The final standing masks the fact that the benchmark index was up in excess of 1.0% at the start of the day. The S&P 500 spent the first 90 minutes near its high, but the absence of intraday buying interest opened the door to a retreat that accelerated when the S&P cut through its 50-day moving average (2046/2047).

Commodity-related sectors fueled the pullback from highs with energy (-0.7%) and materials (-1.2%) ending the day at the bottom of the barrel. The two groups struggled to keep pace with the market in the early going and their underperformance became more notable during the afternoon retreat. Alcoa (AA 15.80, -0.37) ended lower by 2.3% despite reporting better than expected results for the quarter. Commodities, meanwhile, endured another rough day. Copper fell 4.6% to $2.60/lb while crude oil settled lower by 0.3% at $45.92/bbl after hitting an overnight low under the $44.50/bbl level.

Like energy and materials, the remaining cyclical sectors came unglued during the afternoon, but the discretionary sector (-0.1%) was able to end ahead of the S&P 500 even as homebuilders cratered. This morning, KB Home (KBH 13.87, -2.70) rallied in reaction to its revenue beat on earnings that included a deferred tax asset valuation allowance; however, the stock plunged to its October low after management said during its post-earnings conference call that the company does not expect to hit its margin goal in 2015. Instead, first-quarter margins are expected to show a significant year-over-year decline. The news sent shares of KBH lower by 16.3% while the iShares Dow Jones US Home Construction ETF (ITB 25.99, -0.68) fell 2.6% as investors adjusted their expectations for the growth-sensitive industry.

Elsewhere, the technology sector (-0.1%) spent the day ahead of the broader market with Apple (AAPL 110.16, +0.91) contributing to the relative strength. The largest sector component jumped 0.8% after Credit Suisse upgraded the stock to 'Outperform' from 'Neutral.' Other large cap sector members ended mixed with Google (GOOGL 501.80, +4.74) climbing 1.0% and Microsoft (MSFT 46.36, -0.25) falling 0.5%.

The technology sector helped the Nasdaq Composite (-0.1%) finish the day a bit ahead of the broader market. Similarly, biotechnology stocks outperformed with the iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 314.97, -0.09) ending little changed, but the health care sector (-0.5%) settled among the laggards.

Treasuries registered modest gains with the 10-yr yield slipping one basis point to 1.90%.

Today's participation was ahead of average with more than 850 million shares changing hands at the NYSE floor.

Economic data was limited to JOLTs and Treasury Budget:

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey showed that openings increased to 4.972 million from 4.830 million in November
The Treasury Budget for December showed a surplus of $1.90 billion, which followed the prior surplus of $53.20 billion
The Briefing.com consensus expected the surplus to hit $3.00 billion

Tomorrow, the weekly MBA Mortgage Index will be released at 7:00 ET while December Retail Sales (Briefing.com consensus 0.1%) and December Import/Export Prices will cross the wires at 8:30 ET. The Business Inventories report for November (consensus 0.3%) will be reported at 10:00 ET while the Fed's January Beige Book will be released at 14:00 ET.

Dow Jones Industrial Average -1.2% YTD
Nasdaq Composite -1.6% YTD
S&P 500 -1.7% YTD
Russell 2000 -2.0% YTD

3:35 pm: [BRIEFING.COM]

In electronic trade, WTI crude oil rallied back into positive territory, erasing today's losses
Feb crude oil closed pit trading $0.15 lower at $45.95/barrel, but is now up 1% at $46.50/barrel.
Natural gas futures also rallied in electronic trade, extending gains
Feb nat gas is now +6% at $2.96/MMBtu
Feb gold rose $5 today to $1233.80/oz, while Mar silver ran notable higher today, ending $4% higher at $17.13/oz
Copper remained in the red all day, closing today's session at $0.09 lower at $2.64/lb

3:00 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 trades lower by 0.8% with one hour remaining in the Tuesday session. The stock market has endured quite a turn today as the S&P 500 trades about 40 points below its session high. All ten sectors have been clipped on the way down, leaving the defensively-oriented utilities sector (-0.1%) atop the leaderboard.

Elsewhere among countercyclical groups, consumer staples (-0.5%) and telecom services (-0.4%) trade a bit ahead of the broader market while the health care sector (-1.1%) lags. Interestingly, the high-beta biotech group has held up better than the sector, evidenced by a 0.6% decline in the iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 313.03, -2.03).

2:30 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The major averages spiked out of the gate, but the buying interest that drove the indices higher at the start, evaporated just after the start of the session. The S&P 500 (-0.8%) spent the first 90 minutes of the day near its early high, but began fading from those levels as the morning progressed. The selling accelerated once the benchmark index slashed past its 50-day moving average (2046).

All ten sectors took part in the early advance, but the commodity-related materials (-1.7%) and energy (-1.4%) never caught up to the broader market and were among the first sectors to turn lower. On a related note, crude oil traded in the $44.50/bbl area overnight, but was able to rebound this morning; however, renewed selling has the energy component down 1.2% at $45.54/bbl heading into the pit close. Copper futures have also registered a noteworthy decline, falling 4.9% to $2.59/lb.

Elsewhere, homebuilders were among the early leaders, but tumbled to lows after KB Home (KBH 13.67, -2.90) management said during its post-earnings conference call that the company does not expect to hit its margin goal in 2015. Instead, first-quarter margins are expected to show a significant year-over-year decline. Shares of KBH are lower by 17.6% after surrendering their early gain while the iShares Dow Jones US Home Construction ETF (ITB 25.65, -1.02) has given up 3.8% as investors adjust their expectations for the growth-sensitive industry.

The continued selling pressure in the commodity complex has weighed on the overall risk sentiment while the news from KB Home certainly hasn't helped. Furthermore, reports indicating German ECB members remain opposed to a QE program may have also invited some selling.

Treasuries have returned into positive territory, pressuring the 10-yr yield to 1.89% (-2 bps).

A sense of caution has also been observed in the foreign exchange market where the yen has rallied against the dollar, pressuring the dollar/yen pair (117.70) to its lowest level since the middle of December.

2:00 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (-0.6%) remains near its session low after sliding into the red during the past 30 minutes or so. Nine sectors are now in the red with materials (-1.5%) showing the largest decline.

This morning, the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey showed that openings increased to 4.972 million from 4.830 million in November. Labor market conditions tightened in November as the JOLTS report revealed another increase in job openings to go with the decreasing unemployment rate. Tighter conditions are necessary for an acceleration in wage growth, which has eluded this recovery thus far.

On a somewhat related note, the just-released Treasury Budget for December showed a surplus of $1.90 billion, which followed the prior surplus of $53.20 billion. The Briefing.com consensus expected the surplus to hit $3.00 billion.

1:35 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] U.S. stocks continue to surrender their large gains from earlier in the session with the S&P 500 now down just slightly on the day.

Energy (-0.93%) and materials (-1.13%) have led the retreat from highs, dragging the broader market down with them. The top-performing cyclical sector--technology--remains higher by 0.5%.

In equities, shares of mortgage servicers are under heavy pressure today following a report that California may move to suspend Ocwen Financial's (OCN 8.18, -4.01) mortgage license for failure to hand over certain documents. The news is dragging down other names in the field, including Altisource Portfolio (ASPS 17.85, -9.09), Home Loan Servicing (HLSS 13.48, -2.61), Nationstar Mortgage (NSM 24.36, -1.72) and others. Ocwen has been plagued by legal issues over the last year and the performance of the stock demonstrates that, declining 85% in the past 12 months.

The Treasury auctioned $21 billion in 10-yr notes at the top of the hour as part of a disappointing auction that drew 1.930% and a bid-cover ratio of 2.61x. Indirect bidders took 50.0% of the supply while the direct bid of 9.2% was fairly light.

At the bottom of the hour, we look for the release of the Treasury Budget (Briefing.com consensus of $3.0 bln).

12:55 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The major averages hold midday gains with the S&P 500 higher by 0.6%; however, the benchmark index has spent the first half of the session in a retreat from its opening high.

Eight of ten sectors continue to trade in the green at this juncture, but all ten groups find themselves well below their best levels of the session. The top-weighted technology sector remains higher by 1.2% after being up in excess of 2.0% at the start.

The influential tech sector has enjoyed solid support from its largest components. Apple (AAPL 111.19, +1.94), Microsoft (MSFT 47.18, +0.58), and Intel (INTC 37.11, +0.51) hold gains between 1.3% and 1.8% with Apple in the lead after Credit Suisse upgraded the stock to 'Outperform' from 'Neutral.'

Meanwhile, most of the remaining cyclical sectors trade behind the broader market. The discretionary space (+0.7%) remains just ahead of the S&P 500, but homebuilders have surrendered their early gains after KB Home (KBH 14.56, -2.01) management said during its post-earnings conference call that the company does not expect to hit its margin goal in 2015. Instead, first-quarter margins are expected to show a significant year-over-year decline. Shares of KBH are lower by 12.2% after surrendering their early gain while the iShares Dow Jones US Home Construction ETF (ITB 26.14, -0.54) has given up 2.0%.

On the downside, energy (-0.1%) and materials (-0.5%) have surrendered their early gains amid continued weakness in commodities. Crude oil is lower by 1.0% at $45.62/bbl after nicking the $44.30/bbl level overnight while copper futures are down 3.0% at $2.642/lb.

Elsewhere, the tech-heavy Nasdaq (+1.0%) remains ahead of the S&P 500 with biotechnology contributing to the outperformance. The iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 320.11, +5.05) is higher by 1.6% while the health care sector (+0.4%) lags.

Treasuries hold slim losses with the 10-yr yield up one basis point at 1.92%.

Economic data reported this morning was limited to the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for November, which revealed an increase to 4.972 million from 4.830 million.

The Treasury Budget for December will be released at 14:00 ET (Briefing.com consensus $3.00 billion).

12:25 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] Another downtick from the recent levels has caused the S&P 500 to narrow its gain to 0.8%. The continued drip from highs has pressured energy (-0.1%) and materials (-0.5%) into the red. The two commodity-related sectors have lagged since the start amid weakness in industrial commodities like crude oil and copper. Crude oil hovers near its high, but is still down 0.9% at $45.68/bbl. Meanwhile, copper has not been able to pull away from its morning low and remains down 3.1% at $2.642/lb.

Elsewhere, financials (+0.3%) and industrials (+0.4%) have also surrendered the bulk of their gains.

11:55 am: [BRIEFING.COM] Equity indices remain near their recent levels with the S&P 500 trading higher by 1.1%.

Homebuilder names displayed early strength following KB Home's (KBH 14.55, -2.02) upbeat earnings, but both the stock and the broader iShares Dow Jones US Home Construction ETF (ITB 26.52, -0.15) have dropped to new lows in recent action.

The move has taken place during an earnings call held by KBH. According to management, the company does not expect to hit its margin goal in 2015 with first-quarter margins expected to show a significant year-over-year decline. The comments have pressured the entire industry group while the consumer discretionary sector (+1.2%) continues trading just ahead of the broader market.

11:30 am: [BRIEFING.COM] Recent action saw the major averages back away from their highs with the S&P 500 narrowing its gain to 1.1%. All ten sectors continue trading in the green, but commodity-related energy (+0.2%) and materials (+0.1%) have returned to their flat lines.

On a related note, crude oil touched its flat line roughly 30 minutes ago, but the level acted as resistance. The energy component is back in the red, down 1.1% at $45.56/bbl.

Elsewhere, the technology sector (+1.8%) remains in the lead, but the top-weighted group has also inched away from its best level of the session.

11:00 am: [BRIEFING.COM] The major averages hover near their session highs that were reached during the first hour of the trading day. The S&P 500 is higher by 1.3% while the Nasdaq Composite (+1.8%) leads.

The Nasdaq has enjoyed all around support with the technology sector (+2.2%) trading well ahead of other groups. In addition, biotechnology has also provided a measure of support. The iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 319.94, +4.94) is higher by 1.6%, but the health care sector (+0.8%) has yet to overtake the broader market.

Elsewhere, the energy sector (+0.8%) trades a bit behind the S&P 500 while crude oil has climbed off its overnight low and currently trades little changed at $46.02/bbl.

10:35 am: [BRIEFING.COM]

The dollar index is trading higher today and is near today's high, which is weighing on select commodities.
Oil futures fell again overnight with WTI crude oil falling as low as $44.20/barrel.
Oil has been recovering this morning, however, and has erased most of its gains. Feb crude is now -0.9% at $45.65/barrel
Despite the strength in the dollar index, however, silver futures are showing solid gains.
Meanwhile, gold futures lost steam in recent trade and fell back near the unchanged line
Feb gold is currently +0.2% at $1235.50/oz, while Mar silver is +2.9% at $17.04/oz
Natural gas futures are catching a bid this morning and are currently +1.8% at $2.85/MMBtu.
Copper has been in the red all day and is now -2.8% at $2.65/lb

10:05 am: [BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 has extended its advance to 1.4% with all ten sectors holding gains.

Just released, the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey showed that openings increased to 4.972 million from 4.830 million in November.

9:40 am: [BRIEFING.COM] The stock market began the session on a broadly higher note. The S&P 500 trades higher by 1.1% with all ten sectors showing early gains.

Of the ten early advancers, five show gains in excess of 1.0% with yesterday's laggard-technology (+1.5%)-in the lead. Fittingly, the top-weighted sector has received support from its top-weighted component-Apple (AAPL 111.58, +2.33)-which is higher by 2.1%. High-beta chipmakers have also shown relative strength with the PHLX Semiconductor Index higher by 1.3%.

Elsewhere, the energy sector (+0.5%) represents the weakest performer, but the cyclical group has been able to stay out of the red while crude oil has narrowed its decline to 1.2% at $45.54/bbl.

Treasuries have dropped to lows, sending the 10-yr yield higher by two basis points to 1.94%.

9:08 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +14.10. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +35.00. The stock market is on track for an upbeat start as futures on the S&P 500 trade 14 points above fair value. Index futures traded near their flat lines overnight, but spiked at the start of the European session.

Futures have been able to advance even as crude oil trades lower by 1.9% at $45.23/bbl after hitting a low near $44.30/bbl. That is likely to weigh on the energy sector in the early going, meaning other cyclical groups will have to do some heavy lifting to keep the market out of the red.

On the earnings front, Alcoa (AA 16.50, +0.33) reported better than expected results and KB Home (KBH 17.30, +0.73) beat revenue estimates on earnings that included a deferred tax asset valuation allowance.

Treasuries hold slim gains with the 10-yr yield at 1.91%.

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey will be released at 10:00 ET and the Treasury Budget for December (Briefing.com consensus $3.00 billion) will cross at 14:00 ET.

8:57 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +9.90. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +26.70. The S&P 500 futures trade ten points above fair value.

Markets finished mixed across Asia.

In economic data:
China's trade surplus narrowed to $49.60 billion from $54.47 billion (expected surplus of $49.85 billion) as exports rose 9.7% year-over-year (expected 6.8%; previous 4.7%) while imports decreased 2.4% (consensus -7.4%; last -6.7%)
Japan's Current Account surplus narrowed to JPY0.91 trillion from JPY0.95 trillion (expected surplus of JPY0.69 trillion) while Economy Watchers Current Index improved to 45.2 from 41.5 (consensus 44.5)

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Japan's Nikkei lost 0.6%, sliding back below the 50-day average. The strong yen weighed on exporters as Nissan Motor lost 1.1% and Advantest fell 3.8%.
Hong Kong's Hang Seng rallied 0.8% to its best close in four months. Gaming plays were bid as Galaxy Entertainment and Sands China gained 2.7% and 2.3%, respectively.
China's Shanghai Composite added 0.2% to register its first gain in four days. Brokerage names were a weak link as Citic Securities fell 2.5% and Haitong Securities lost 2.6% following a tier 1 downgrade.
India's Sensex lost 0.6% to end its three-day winning streak. Losses were widespread as ICICI Bank fell 1.6% and Infosys sank 1.3%.

Major European indices trade higher across the board with France's CAC (+1.2%) in the lead. European Central Bank executive member Benoit Coeure said the upcoming Greek election on January 25 will not affect the ECB's planned policy course. Mr Coeure continued, saying the board is ready to make a QE announcement next week, but stressed that the decision is not a foregone conclusion

Participants received several data points:
Germany's Wholesale Price Index fell 1.0% month-over-month (expected 0.2%; previous -0.7%) while the year-over-year reading declined 2.3% (last -1.1%)
UK's CPI was unchanged month-over-month (expected 0.1%; previous -0.3%) while the year-over-year reading increased 0.5% (consensus 0.7%; last 1.0%). Separately, Core CPI increased 1.3% year-over-year (expected 1.4%; last 1.2%) while Output PPI fell 0.8% year-over-year (expected -0.4%; last -0.6%)
Italy's Industrial Production rose 0.3% month-over-month (expected 0.1%; previous 0.0%) while the year-over-year reading fell 1.8% (consensus -2.7%; last -3.0%)

------

UK's FTSE is higher by 0.4% with consumer names pacing the advance. WM Morrison Supermarkets, Sainsbury, and Tesco hold gains between 2.9% and 4.7%. Energy-related names lag with Tullow Oil down 4.9%.
Germany's DAX has climbed 1.1% amid strength in financials. Commerzbank and Deutsche Bank lead with gains close to 3.2% apiece. Utilities lag with E.On lower by 2.0% and RWE down 0.3%.
In France, the CAC is higher by 1.1%. Utilities Electricite de France and Veolia Environnement lead with respective gains of 4.1% and 4.5%. Gemalto is the weakest performer, down 1.6%.

8:30 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +7.40. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +20.50. Equity futures have pulled back from their highs, but the S&P 500 futures continue holding a seven-point gain against fair value.

Quarterly earnings will be a focal point over the coming weeks with the Q4 reporting period getting underway this week. Alcoa (AA 16.43, +0.26) delivered better than expected results last evening, while JPMorgan Chase (JPM 59.12, +0.29) will report tomorrow morning and be the first Dow component to do so. Overall, S&P 500 earnings are expected to grow 8.2%, according to FactSet.

7:58 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +9.40. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +23.50. U.S. equity futures hover near their pre-market highs amid upbeat action overseas. The S&P 500 futures trade nine points above fair value after spiking off their lows at the start of the European session.

The overnight advance in futures has taken place even as crude oil dropped below the $45.00/bbl level. Currently, the energy component is lower by 3.1% at $44.64/bbl. while the Dollar Index trades higher by 0.3% at 92.29.

Today's economic data will be limited to Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey and the Treasury Budget for December (Briefing.com consensus $3.00 billion). The data points will be released at 10:00 ET and 14:00 ET, respectively.

Treasuries hold modest gains with the 10-yr yield down three basis points at 1.88%.

In U.S. corporate news of note:

Alcoa (AA 16.35, +0.18): +1.1% after beating earnings and revenue estimates
Apple (AAPL 110.62, +1.37): +1.3% after Credit Suisse upgraded the stock to 'Outperform' from 'Neutral.'

Reviewing overnight developments:

Asian markets ended mixed. Japan's Nikkei -0.6%, China's Shanghai Composite +0.2%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng +0.8%
In economic data:
China's trade surplus narrowed to $49.60 billion from $54.47 billion (expected surplus of $49.85 billion) as exports rose 9.7% year-over-year (expected 6.8%; previous 4.7%) while imports decreased 2.4% (consensus -7.4%; last -6.7%)
Japan's Current Account surplus narrowed to JPY0.91 trillion from JPY0.95 trillion (expected surplus of JPY0.69 trillion) while Economy Watchers Current Index improved to 45.2 from 41.5 (consensus 44.5)
In news:
Japan's 5-yr yield dropped to zero for the first time ever while the benchmark 10-yr yield has also recorded a fresh low, around the 0.250% level

Major European indices trade higher across the board. UK's FTSE +0.5%, Germany's DAX +1.2%, and France's CAC +1.3%. Elsewhere, Spain's IBEX +1.3% and Italy's MIB +1.5%
Participants received several data points:
Germany's Wholesale Price Index fell 1.0% month-over-month (expected 0.2%; previous -0.7%) while the year-over-year reading declined 2.3% (last -1.1%)
UK's CPI was unchanged month-over-month (expected 0.1%; previous -0.3%) while the year-over-year reading increased 0.5% (consensus 0.7%; last 1.0%). Separately, Core CPI increased 1.3% year-over-year (expected 1.4%; last 1.2%) while Output PPI fell 0.8% year-over-year (expected -0.4%; last -0.6%)
Italy's Industrial Production rose 0.3% month-over-month (expected 0.1%; previous 0.0%) while the year-over-year reading fell 1.8% (consensus -2.7%; last -3.0%)
Among news of note:
European Central Bank executive member Benoit Coeure said the upcoming Greek election on January 25 will not affect the ECB's planned policy course. Mr Coeure continued, saying the board is ready to make a QE announcement next week, but stressed that the decision is not a foregone conclusion

7:00 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +12.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +30.00.

7:00 am: [BRIEFING.COM] Nikkei...17,087.71...-110.00...-0.60%. Hang Seng...24,215.97...+189.50...+0.80%.

7:00 am: [BRIEFING.COM] FTSE...6,539.04...+34.60...+0.60%. DAX...9,891.92...+111.30...+1.10%.

Euro Declines to Nine-Year Low on Stimulus Outlook; Ruble Drops

By Andrea Wong Jan 13, 2015 5:16 PM ET

The euro fell to a nine-year low as officials fueled speculation that the European Central Bank will begin buying government bonds as early as next week to stave off deflation.

A gauge of the dollar gained to almost the highest in a decade on bets the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates this year. Richard Clarida of Pacific Investment Management Co. said he sees the euro falling to parity. The shared currency slid after a Greek official said the nation may exit the currency union as the opposition party holds a slim lead heading into elections. Sweden’s krona climbed versus the euro as consumer prices fell less than analysts estimated. Russia’s ruble dropped with oil.

“The euro has been pressured by several factors, including prospects of central-bank policy action and concerns regarding political developments in Greece,” said Sireen Harajli, a Mizuho Bank Ltd. strategist in New York. “It seems that there is very little to support the single currency.”

Shouldn't the ECB Buy Bonds, Too?

The euro dropped 0.5 percent to $1.1773 at 5 p.m. New York time and touched $1.1753, the weakest level since 2005. Europe’s common currency fell 0.9 percent to 138.83 yen. The yen rose 0.4 percent to 117.93 per dollar after reaching 117.54, the strongest since Dec. 17.

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, which tracks the U.S. currency against 10 major peers, appreciated 0.2 percent to 1,142.87. It closed at 1,147.54 on Jan. 8, the highest in data going back to 2004.

Oil Slides

Brent crude oil for February settlement slid as much as 4.7 percent to $45.19 a barrel in London and traded lower than West Texas Intermediate for the first time in 1 1/2 years. Oil slumped almost 50 percent last year, the most since the 2008 financial crisis.

The currency of Russia, the world’s biggest energy exporter, matched that plunge with its own 46 percent slide against the dollar last year. Today the ruble weakened 3.2 percent to extend its slide this year to 7.2 percent, the most among 31 major currencies tracked by Bloomberg.

Sweden’s krona advanced for the first time versus the shared currency since Jan. 6 as consumer prices fell an annual 0.3 percent in December, according to Statistics Sweden, less than the 0.5 percent decline predicted in a Bloomberg survey of analysts. Assuming constant interest rates, inflation was 0.5 percent, beating the 0.2 percent estimate.

The krona was 0.6 percent stronger at 9.4997 versus the euro and little changed at 8.0708 against the dollar.

Euro Parity

The euro fell after ECB Governing Council member Ewald Nowotny said during a panel discussion late yesterday in Vienna that policy makers must treat the threat of deflation seriously and shouldn’t delay a response. Executive Board member Benoit Coeure was quoted in an interview with Die Welt that the ECB is “in a position to take a decision on Jan. 22.”

Clarida, executive vice president at Newport Beach, California-based Pimco, said the central bank may act as soon as next week.

“They’ll probably announce a big program, perhaps 500 billion euros ($588 billion), to buy sovereign bonds in the secondary market,” he said in an interview on Bloomberg Television’s “Surveillance” with Tom Keene. For the euro, “the next technical is parity. There’s a lot more downside.” He didn’t specify a time frame.

Greek Election

Greek Finance Minister Gikas Hardouvelis said the nation could exit the euro zone by accident if a new government led by Syriza fails to reach an agreement with international creditors soon after this month’s election.

“An accident could happen, and the whole idea is to avoid it,” he said in a Bloomberg Television interview in Athens yesterday.

The euro has fallen 2.5 percent in the past month against nine developed-nation peers tracked by Bloomberg Correlation-Weighted Indexes, as the dollar gained 3.9 percent, reflecting the divergence in policy outlook between the ECB and the Fed.

The ECB cut its deposit rate to less than zero for the first time in June and lowered its refinancing rate to 0.05 percent, while the Fed has signaled it is moving toward increasing borrowing costs.

“Given all of the ECB chatter, it is hard to see them not giving the market something next week -- even if they need more time to iron out the details,” said Matt Derr, a foreign-exchange strategist in New York at Credit Suisse Group AG. “And with the Greek election and the polls not moving much, it just adds to euro weakness.”

To contact the reporter on this story: Andrea Wong in New York at awong268@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Dave Liedtka at dliedtka@bloomberg.net Kenneth Pringle, Greg Storey

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney, Reuters and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader Image@ http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader

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