TheStrategyLab.com Free Support Forum

Forum for price action traders that want to learn WRB Analysis basic tutorial chapters 1, 2 and 3 prior to purchasing our advance trade methods
It is currently Mon May 22, 2017 4:29 pm

All times are UTC - 5 hours




Post new topic Reply to topic Bookmark and Share  [ 1 post ] 
Author Message
 Post subject: January 30th Friday Trade Results - No Trades
PostPosted: Fri Jan 30, 2015 5:21 pm 
Offline
Site Admin

Joined: Sat Jan 10, 2009 1:06 pm
Posts: 2847
Location: Canada
Image

Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
Phone: +1 708 572-4885
Free Chat Room: http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=164
Business Hours: 8am - 5pm est (Mon - Fri)
questions@thestrategylab.com (24/7)
http://twitter.com/wrbtrader (24/7)

Quote:
No trades due to personal day off and to rest after trading aggressively for the entire month of January.

Price Action Trade Performance for Today: Emini TF ($TF_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.00 points, Emini ES ($ES_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.00 points, Light Crude Oil CL ($CL_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.00 points, Gold GC ($GC_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.00 points and EuroFX 6E ($6E_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.0000 ticks. Total Profit @ $0.00 dollars

Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures: 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures: 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup
Light Crude Oil CL (WTI) Futures: 1 tick or 0.01 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup
Gold GC Futures: 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup
EuroFX 6E Futures: 1 tick or 0.0001 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup

Trade Log: All of my trades were posted real-time in the timestamp ##TheStrategyLab chat room. You can read today's price action trading information about my trades (e.g. time, price entry, contract size, price exit) as the trade traversed to its completion. Also, sometimes I'll post real-time trading tips in ##TheStrategyLab chat room involving WRBs, WRB Hidden GAPs, Key Market Events (KME), Tutorial Chapters 2 & 3, WRB Zones, Reaction Highs/Lows, Contracting Volatility or Expanding Volatility. Its all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=139&t=1993

Quote:
All of my real-time posted trades involves price action concepts from the WRB Analysis free study guide, Advance WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 4 - 12 and the Volatility Trading Report (VTR) trade signal strategies. Analysis -----> Trade Signals

Also, posted below are direct links to information about my price action trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis). I'm primarily a day trader because it suits my personal lifestyle but I do occasionally swing trade and position trade. Simply, my trade method is applicable for position trading, swing trading and day trading.

Image ##TheStrategyLab Chat Room is free. Members and I use the chat room to post WRB Analysis commentary, real-time trades and to post anything else related to trading. The chat room helps me tremendously in my own trading because I use it to document (journal) general volatility analysis involving WRB Analysis so that I can easily review at a later date my thoughts as I interacted with the markets...info I can not get from my broker statements. Also, this is not a signal calling chat room where a head trader tells you when to buy or sell and I do not have the time/energy/resources to manage a signal calling chat room. Access instructions for chat room @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=164

Image Price Action Analysis via Advance WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=119&t=718

Analysis -----> Trade Signals

Image Trade Signal Strategies via Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our price action trade strategies with support (answering your questions) prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

All WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1 - 12 are included in the purchase of the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Image Trading Plan Daily Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=255&t=2625

-----------------------------

Market Context Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, CNNMoney, Reuters and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED/ECB/BOE/IMF actions or any important global economic events (e.g. Eurozone, MarketWatch.com) that had an impact on today's price action in many trading instruments I monitor during the trading day. Simply, I'm a strong believer that key market events causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility resulting in trade opportunities (swing points and strong continuation price actions) that reach profit targets. Thus, I pay attention to these key market events, intermarket analysis (e.g. Forex EurUsd, EuroFX 6E futures, Gold GC futures, Light Crude Oil (WTI) CL & Brent Oil futures, Eurex DAX futures, Euronext FTSE100 futures, Emini ES futures, Emini TF futures, Treasury ZB futures and U.S. Dollar Index futures) while using WRB Analysis from one trade to the next trade to give me the market context for price action trading before the appearance of my technical analysis trade signals. Therefore, I maintain these archives to allow me to understand what was happening on any given trading day in the past involving key market events to help better understand my trade decisions (day trading, swing trading, position trading)...something I can not get from my broker statements alone. Further, most financial websites remove (delete) their archives after a few years to make room for new content. Therefore, I maintain my own archives of the news content so that I have it available for me when financial websites no longer archives their content.

Attachment:
013015-Key-Price-Action-Markets.png
013015-Key-Price-Action-Markets.png [ 1.05 MiB | Viewed 88 times ]

click on the above image to view today's price action of key markets

4:15 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The stock market ended a down month on a sharply lower note. The Dow (-1.5%) and S&P 500 (-1.3%) widened their respective January losses to 3.7% and 3.1% while the Nasdaq Composite (-1.0%) lost 2.1%. Furthermore, this marked the first time since early 2012 that the market registered losses in two consecutive months.

The key indices struggled at the start after a disappointing GDP report for the fourth quarter introduced a new wrinkle into a deteriorating outlook for global growth. Overnight, Japan and the eurozone saw a slowdown in their respective inflation data while a handful of U.S. companies joined a growing chorus of names that have reduced their guidance for the first quarter. On that note, consensus Q1 earnings growth has contracted to just 0.2% from 8.6% on December 1, according to S&P Capital IQ.

Equities followed their lower open with another slip, but the S&P 500 turned around just north of the 2,000 level and spent the afternoon working back to its flat line. The rebound coincided with a Der Spiegel report indicating Germany is ready to back EUR20 billion in aid for Greece, but the package would be contingent on Greece accepting reform conditions imposed by the troika. This contrasted with earlier comments from Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis who said Greece will no longer negotiate with the troika. Furthermore, Germany's government was quick to deny the report from Der Spiegel.

The afternoon rebound also featured a surge in crude oil, which spiked to end the day higher by 8.0% at $48.17/bbl. However, crude notched its high just ahead of the 14:30 ET pit close and inched away from that level in electronic trade while the S&P 500 slumped back below its 100-day moving average (2,010) to a new low.

Nine of ten sectors registered losses while energy (+0.7%) benefitted from the spike in crude. However, today's surge was a small victory considering the sector lost 4.9% in January. Dow component Chevron (CVX 102.53, -0.47) shed 0.5% after its plans to cut capital expenditures by 13.0% overshadowed better than expected results.

Speaking of the Dow, the index stayed near the S&P 500, but a 2.8% spike in the shares of Visa (V 254.91, +6.91) masked the fact that 15 of 30 Dow members lost more than 2.0% while four of the 15 tumbled 3.0% or more. As for Visa, the payment processor spiked after beating estimates and announcing a 4:1 split, which will become effective March 19 and remove some of Visa's influence over the price-weighted index.

In other earnings of note, Amazon.com (AMZN 354.53, +42.75) soared 13.7% after beating operating income estimates and issuing cautious guidance for the first quarter. The stock helped the consumer discretionary sector (-1.1%) finish a few steps ahead of the broader market.

Although the market endured a whipsaw session, that was not the case with Shake Shack (SHAK 45.90, +24.90), which made its public debut today. Shares of the hamburger chain rocketed higher by 118.6% after pricing the IPO at $21.

Treasuries spiked, ending near their highs with the 10-yr yield down eight basis points at 1.67%.

Today's participation was well ahead of average with more than a billion shares changing hands at the NYSE floor.

Economic data included Q4 GDP, Employment Cost Index, Chicago PMI, and Michigan Sentiment:

According to the advance estimate, GDP increased 2.6% in Q4 2014 (Briefing.com consensus 3.2%), down from a 5.0% increase in the third quarter
Real final sales increased 1.8% in the fourth quarter after increasing 5.0% in the third quarter
Much of the GDP gain was the result of lower prices adding a boost to the "real" economy. Nominal GDP growth was anemic (2.5%), which was down by more than 50% from both second (6.8%) and third quarter (6.4%) growth levels
Consumption spending was a bright spot, increasing 4.3%, which was the largest jump since 2006
The Employment Cost index Increased 0.6% in Q4, down from a 0.7% increase in Q3 while the Briefing.com consensus expected an increase of 0.5%
Wages and salaries decelerated, up 0.5% after increasing 0.8% in Q3 2014
Benefits spending growth increased 0.6% for a second consecutive quarter
The Chicago PMI for January increased to 59.4 from 58.8 while the Briefing.com consensus expected a drop to 58.0
Production levels accelerated as the related index increased to 64.1 in January from 62.7 in December
The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index was virtually unchanged in January, ticking down to 98.1 from 98.2 (Briefing.com consensus 98.2)
Lower gasoline prices and improvements in the labor market were key for overall sentiment growth in January

On Monday, December Personal Income, Personal Spending, and Core PCE Prices will be reported at 8:30 ET while the ISM Index for January and December Construction Spending will be released at 10:00 ET.

Nasdaq Composite -2.1% YTD
S&P 500 -3.1% YTD
Russell 2000 -3.4% YTD
Dow Jones Industrial Average -3.7% YTD

Week in Review: Stocks Slide to End January

The stock market began the week on a quiet note with the Dow (unch), Nasdaq (+0.3%), and S&P 500 (+0.3%) settling near their flat lines. The small-cap Russell 2000 (+1.0%) outperformed, but the action took place against the backdrop of anemic trading volume as the East Coast braced for Winter Storm Juno. The intraday lack of trading activity masked the fact that the weekend featured an important election in Greece. As expected, the anti-bailout Syriza party came away victorious, and despite failing to secure absolute majority, the party was able to form a coalition with Independent Greeks-a party that also opposes EU bailouts. So far, Syriza officials have been very careful when discussing the future of Greece with Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis saying a euro exit is not in the plans and that talks of a 'Grexit' should not be sensationalized.

The major averages stumbled on Tuesday with the S&P 500 (-1.3%) returning below its 50-day moving average (2,047). The benchmark index settled ahead of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (-1.7%), but behind the Russell 2000 (-0.5%). Stocks careened lower at the start of the session after several large companies cautioned that dollar strength will present a headwind to their future earnings. Most notably, Caterpillar (CAT), DuPont (DD), Microsoft (MSFT), and Procter & Gamble (PG) lost between 1.3% and 9.3% while Pfizer (PFE), and United Technologies (UTX) held up relatively well despite their warnings. However, cautious guidance from six Dow components was not the only issue as investors had to digest a disappointing Durable Orders report while Consumer Confidence and New Home Sales beat expectations.

Equities finished the midweek session on a lower note despite showing considerable strength in the early going. The S&P 500 (-1.4%) lost its 100-day moving average (2,010) and settled behind the Nasdaq Composite (-0.9%) while the Russell 2000 (-1.7%) lagged throughout the day. The key indices appeared to be on solid footing at the start with the Nasdaq up 1.0% after Apple (AAPL) reported better than expected results for the quarter and issued strong guidance. The stock surged 5.7% and helped the technology sector (-0.1%) finish near its flat line while most of the remaining sectors struggled. The benchmark index traded little changed ahead of the afternoon release of the latest policy statement from the Fed, but slumped into the close. Once again, the policy directive reiterated the Fed's intent to remain patient in determining the appropriate timing for the first rate hike, which helped send Treasuries to new highs. The 10-yr yield fell ten basis points to 1.73% while the 30-yr yield dropped 11 basis points to register its lowest close on record (2.28%). The Fed described U.S. economic growth as 'solid' while categorizing job growth as 'strong.' The central bank did not spend much time discussing overseas developments, which could help explain some of the selling that developed after the statement was released. Furthermore, the FOMC showed little concern over low inflation, saying that while the price level is expected to decline in the near term, a gradual return to 2.0% should follow once the 'transitory effects of lower energy prices and other factors dissipate.'

The market endured a volatile session on Thursday, but a steady rebound off morning lows helped the major averages register their first gain in three days. The Dow Jones Industrial Average paced the advance (+1.3%) while the S&P 500 (+1.0%) reclaimed its 100-day moving average (2,010). Equities faced some selling pressure at the start amid continued weakness in crude oil. The energy component set a fresh January low in the $43.60/bbl area, but was able to charge back to unchanged by the pit close. That rebound improved the overall risk tolerance and helped the S&P 500 find support just a point above its January low (1988.12). Dip buyers entered the picture about 90 minutes after the start of the session, which helped all ten sectors rebound off their lows. The materials space (+1.4%) finished in the lead thanks to better than expected earnings from Dow Chemical (DOW). The stock spiked 4.6% and gave a boost to its peers. Meanwhile, the other commodity-related sector-energy (+0.2%)-was the weakest performer.

3:35 pm: [BRIEFING.COM]

WTI crude oil steals the show on a late-day surge higher
Mar crude oil picked up steam following rumors that ISIS was on the move in Northern Iraq, according to CNBC
Who knows what's actually going on, yet, but either way March crude oil closed 8% higher at $48.17/barrel
Mar nat gas lost $0.03 to $2.69/MMBtu
Feb gold rallied $24 to $1278.90/oz, while Mar silver rose $0.45 to $16.76/zo
Mar copper closed $0.04 higher at $2.49/lb

3:00 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] After climbing to unchanged levels at the time of our last update on the heels of strength in crude oil futures, U.S. indices have slid back into negative territory.

A late day surge in WTI crude helped the fossil fuel close up 8% to $48.17/bbl on the day amid no news. On the heels of that strength, the energy sector (+1.2%) is now the standout strongest performer on the day, while consumer staples (-1.23%) remain the heaviest decliner.

Following the late day gains in crude, shares in airline stocks are having a notably weak afternoon with Spirit Airlines (SAVE), American Airlines (AAL), and United Continental (UAL) all down over 6% in recent trade.

Despite today's action, energy still remains one of the worst S&P sectors in January as we approach today's close, only trumped by financials, which are down 6.3% month-to-date.

2:30 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (unch) has climbed to a new high with 90 minutes remaining in the final January session. Given its current level, the benchmark index is on track to end the month with a 1.9% decline.

Similar to the S&P 500, crude oil is on its way to a January decline, but the energy component has charged higher during the past hour or so. WTI crude trades higher by 7.5% at $47.93/bbl, but despite today's surge, it remains lower by 10.0% for the month.

The recent spike in equities and crude has been accompanied by some selling in the Treasury market. The 10-yr yield has narrowed its decline to six basis points at 1.69% after marking a low near 1.65%.

1:55 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] Equity indices hover near their afternoon highs.

There was a bevy of economic data released this morning, but the lone standout was the big miss in fourth quarter GDP growth.

According to the advance estimate, GDP increased 2.6% in Q4 2014, down from a 5% increase in the third quarter. The Briefing.com Consensus expected GDP to increase 3.2%.

Stripping out inventories, real final sales increased 1.8% in the fourth quarter after increasing 5.0% in the third quarter.

There was no doubt that the economy softened in the fourth quarter. Just about all of the income data over the last few months were notably weaker. Much of the GDP gain was the result of lower prices adding a boost to the "real" economy. Nominal GDP growth was anemic (2.5%), which was down by more than 50% from both second (6.8%) and third quarter (6.4%) growth levels.

One bright spot was consumption spending, which increased 4.3% in the fourth quarter. That was the largest quarterly increase since Q1 2006. Notably, the gains were widespread within the consumption spectrum: durable goods spending increased 7.4%, nondurable goods spending increased 7.4%, and services spending increased 3.7%.

1:30 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] Equity indices have backed away from their rebound highs with the S&P 500 (-0.6%) back below its 100-day moving average (2,010). Meanwhile, the Russell 2000 (-1.6%) continues showing relative weakness and currently trades a few points below its 50-day moving average (1,180).

Nine sectors remain in negative territory with industrials (-1.1%) and consumer staples (-1.1%) occupying the bottom of today's leaderboard. Transport stocks have contributed to the underperformance of the industrial sector, evidenced by a 1.4% decline in the Dow Jones Transportation Average. Including today's decline, the bellwether complex is now down 4.4% for the month versus a 2.5% decline for the S&P 500.

Elsewhere, Treasuries continue ranging near their highs with the 10-yr yield down nine basis points at 1.67%.

1:00 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The major averages trade lower at midday with the Nasdaq Composite (-0.2%) staying ahead of the Dow (-0.7%) and S&P 500 (-0.7%).

Equities have faced selling pressure since the opening bell amid continued concerns about the pace of global growth and a devolving outlook for first quarter earnings. To that latter point, cautious guidance for the first quarter has slashed the consensus Q1 earnings growth to 0.2% from 8.6% on December 1, according to S&P Capital IQ. In addition, the advance GDP report for the fourth quarter indicated growth of 2.6% which was below the 3.2% expected by the Briefing.com consensus.

The market retreated through the first hour of today's session and spent the next hour near its low before charging off that level. The move coincided with a Der Spiegel report indicating Germany is ready to back EUR20 billion in aid for Greece, but the package would be contingent on Greece accepting reform conditions imposed by the troika. This contrasted with earlier comments from Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis who said Greece will no longer negotiate with the troika. Furthermore, Germany's government was quick to deny the report.

In any case, the S&P 500 was able to claw back above its 100-day moving average (2,010), where it currently trades. Only two sectors sport gains, but neither materials (+0.1%) nor telecom services (+0.1%) hold much sway over the broader market. The two groups comprise just 5.5% of the entire market.

As for heavily-weighted sectors, financials (-0.8%), industrials (-0.9%), and consumer staples (-1.0%) lag while consumer discretionary (-0.2%) and technology (-0.2%) outperform. Furthermore, the Dow trades in-line with the S&P 500, but that is largely due to a 4.6% spike in its top component-Visa (V 259.47, +11.47). Shares of Visa have rallied in reaction to better than expected results while 27 of the remaining 29 Dow components hold losses with 16 names down more than 1.0%.

Visa's strength has provided the technology sector with a measure of support while Google (GOOGL 536.89, +23.66) has chipped in despite missing earnings estimates.

Elsewhere, the discretionary sector has stayed ahead of the broader market with help from Amazon.com (AMZN 353.55, +41.77). The online retailer has soared 13.5% after beating operating income estimates and guiding lower.

Also of note, crude oil has charged off its morning low and now trades higher by 2.2% at $45.51/bbl while the energy sector (-0.6%) trades near the S&P 500. Chevron (CVX 100.66, -2.34) has tumbled 2.3% after the company's plans to cut capital expenditures by 13.0% overshadowed better than expected results.

Treasuries hold solid gains with the 10-yr yield down nine basis points at 1.66%.

Economic data included Q4 GDP, Employment Cost Index, Chicago PMI, and Michigan Sentiment:

According to the advance estimate, GDP increased 2.6% in Q4 2014 (Briefing.com consensus 3.2%), down from a 5.0% increase in the third quarter
Real final sales increased 1.8% in the fourth quarter after increasing 5.0% in the third quarter
Much of the GDP gain was the result of lower prices adding a boost to the "real" economy. Nominal GDP growth was anemic (2.5%), which was down by more than 50% from both second (6.8%) and third quarter (6.4%) growth levels o Consumption spending was a bright spot, increasing 4.3%, which was the largest jump since 2006
The Employment Cost index Increased 0.6% in Q4, down from a 0.7% increase in Q3 while the Briefing.com consensus expected an increase of 0.5%
Wages and salaries decelerated, up 0.5% after increasing 0.8% in Q3 2014
Benefits spending growth increased 0.6% for a second consecutive quarter
The Chicago PMI for January increased to 59.4 from 58.8 while the Briefing.com consensus expected a drop to 58.0
Production levels accelerated as the related index increased to 64.1 in January from 62.7 in December
The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index was virtually unchanged in January, ticking down to 98.1 from 98.2 (Briefing.com consensus 98.2)
Lower gasoline prices and improvements in the labor market were key for overall sentiment growth in January

12:30 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The stock market has charged off its session low with the Nasdaq Composite (+0.2%) returning into positive territory. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 has regained its 100-day average (2,010) and trimmed its loss to 0.3% after spiking almost 15 points off its low.

The rebound took place after Der Spiegel reported that the Germany is willing to back as much as EUR20 billion in rescue funds for Greece. Interestingly, the report crossed hours after Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis said his government will no longer negotiate with the troika and was met with an immediate denial from the German government.

Treasuries inched down from their highs, but they continue holding solid gains with the 10-yr yield down nine basis points at 1.67%.

11:55 am: [BRIEFING.COM] Equity indices remain near their lows with the Dow (-0.9%) and S&P 500 (-0.9%) trading neck-in-neck. However, this masks the fact that the Dow's largest component by weight-Visa (V 259.33, +11.33)-has surged 4.6% after beating earnings estimates. If it wasn't for Visa, the Dow would trade behind the broader market with 22 of its 30 components down 1.0% or more.

Although Visa is the most influential Dow component at this time, the credit card processor will lose that title on March 19 when a 4:1 split goes into effect. Elsewhere, Visa's peer, MasterCard (MA 82.26, +0.88), is higher by 1.1% after beating earnings estimates and issuing cautious revenue guidance.

11:25 am: [BRIEFING.COM] Another round of new lows for the major averages has the S&P 500 down 0.9% at this juncture.

All ten sectors are now in negative territory with utilities (-1.3%) showing the largest decline. This month's leading sector has narrowed its January gain to 3.3% while other countercyclical groups have not fared much better. Health care (-1.1%) and consumer staples (-1.2%) underperform while the telecom services sector (-0.1%) hovers near its flat line.

Today's selling has been closely correlated with the performance of the dollar/yen pair. Overnight, the yen strengthened after Japan's latest CPI data showed a slowdown in inflation. The currency pair traded near its low when today's session started (117.60), and has slipped further to 117.30, where it currently trades. Despite retreating against the yen, the dollar has climbed at the expense of other currencies with the Dollar Index higher by 0.1% (94.85, +0.06).

10:55 am: [BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (-0.8%) has marked a fresh session low while the Nasdaq Composite (-0.6%) has dipped into the red. Meanwhile, small caps underperform with the Russell 2000 down 1.5%.

Even though the Russell trails the broader market today, the index is on track to end the month with a comparable decline to the S&P 500 as both indices sport January losses near 2.6%. The weakness in equities has been met with a rally among Treasuries. The 10-yr yield is lower by eight basis points at 1.67% today, and down more than 45 basis points from where it ended 2014.

Seven sectors trade in the red with heavily-weighted financials (-1.1%), industrials (-1.1%), health care (-1.1%), and consumer staples (-1.2%) trailing the broader market. Also of note, the biotech group trades in the red despite better than expected results from Biogen Idec (BIIB 388.11, +34.86). The stock has surged 9.9% while the iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 321.98, -0.87) trades lower by 0.3%.

10:35 am: [BRIEFING.COM]

WTI Crude oil prices rallied back in recent trade to today's high after losing steam and selling off to a new LoD this morning
Mar crude is now +1.8 at $45.33/barrel
Natural gas, on the other hand, has been in the red all day and is now -1.8% at $2.67/MMBtu
Precious metals have rallied in recent trade, hitting new highs on the day
Apr gold is now +1.1% at $1269.30, while Mar silver is +1.8% at $17.07/oz
Copper is showing some strength as well. Mar copper is now +1.3% at $2.48/lb

10:00 am: [BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 trades lower by 0.4%.

The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report for January was revised down to 98.1 from 98.2 while the Briefing.com consensus expected the reading to remain unchanged.

9:45 am: [BRIEFING.COM] Just released, the Chicago PMI for January rose to 59.4 from 58.3, while the Briefing.com consensus expected a decrease to 58.0.

9:45 am: [BRIEFING.COM] Equity indices began the day in mixed fashion. The S&P 500 (-0.3%) has been pressured by losses in eight of ten sectors while the Nasdaq Composite (+0.3%) has received support from the likes of Amazon.com (AMZN 348.37, +36.59), Biogen Idec (BIIB 394.33, +41.04), and Google (GOOGL 524.44, +11.21). The three names are up between 2.2% and 12.0% in the early going.

Meanwhile, eight sectors trade in negative territory with economically-sensitive financials (-0.9%) and energy (-0.8%) showing the largest losses. The two groups are on track to end January well behind their peers with respective losses of 6.2% and 6.1%.

On the upside, health care (+0.1%) and technology (+0.1%) hold slim gains with the health care sector looking to defend its January gain of 2.9%.

9:14 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -16.70. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -5.50. The stock market is on track for a lower open with futures on the S&P 500 trading 17 points below fair value. Index futures have faced selling pressure throughout the night, notching their pre-market lows within the past 30 minutes after the advance reading of Q4 GDP missed estimates. According to the report, GDP rose 2.6% while the Briefing.com consensus expected an increase of 3.2%.

Despite the slowdown in overall growth, consumption spending was relatively strong, increasing 4.3%, which was the largest jump since 2006.

The GDP report was followed by a downtick in futures and a spike in the Treasury market that sent the 10-yr yield lower by eight basis points to 1.68%.

More data remains with the Chicago PMI report for January (consensus 58.0) set to cross the wires at 9:45 ET while the final reading of the January Michigan Sentiment Index will follow at 9:55 ET (consensus 98.2).

In addition to disappointing GDP data, investors have had to deal with cautious guidance for the first quarter that has slashed the consensus Q1 earnings growth to 0.2% from 8.6% on December 1, according to S&P Capital IQ. On that note, Amazon.com (AMZN 351.31, +39.53) beat operating income estimates, but was the latest large name to issue cautious guidance.

8:53 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -18.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -15.00. The S&P 500 futures trade 18 points below fair value.

Asian markets finished the week on a mostly lower note. The yen strengthened after Japan's inflation data did not jive with the upbeat outlook provided by the country's government. The dollar/yen pair trades near 117.75 after sliding from 118.30.

In economic data:
Japan's Housing Starts fell 14.7% year-over-year (expected -14.8%; prior -14.3%) while Industrial Production rose 1.0% month-over-month (expected 1.3%; prior -0.5%). Separately, National CPI rose 2.4% (consensus 2.3%; prior 2.4%) while National Core CPI increased 2.5% (expected 2.6%; previous 2.7%). Also of note, Household Spending rose 0.4% month-over-month (forecast 0.3%; last 0.4%) while the Unemployment Rate ticked down to 3.4% from 3.5% (expected 3.5%)
Australia's PPI ticked up 0.1% quarter-over-quarter (expected 0.3%; prior 0.2%) while Private Sector Credit increased 0.5%, as expected
Singapore's Unemployment Rate ticked down to 1.9% from 2.0% (expected 2.0%)

------

Japan's Nikkei (+0.4%) outperformed with help from technology companies. Advantest and Sumco jumped 9.3% and 8.1%, respectively.
Hong Kong's Hang Seng (-0.4%) slipped into the close. Casino and gaming names continued their recent woes with Galaxy Entertainment and Sands China both losing near 3.0%.
China's Shanghai Composite (-1.6%) ended on its session low. Technology names underperformed with China National Software, Linewell Software, and Yonyou Network Technology losing between 8.0% and 9.5%.
India's Sensex (-1.7%) retreated after a series of record closes. Financials lagged with State Bank of India and ICICI Bank down 5.5% and 5.2%, respectively, after ICICI's earnings showed a spike in provisions for bad loans.

Major European indices trade lower with France's CAC (-0.6%) leading the way. Investors in Europe are anxious to receive an update from the ongoing talks between Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras and Eurogroup Chair Jeroen Dijsselbloem.

Economic data was plentiful:
Eurozone CPI fell 0.6% year-over-year (expected -0.5%; prior -0.2%) while Core CPI rose 0.5% (consensus 0.6%; last 0.7%). Separately, the Unemployment Rate ticked down to 11.4% from 11.5% (consensus 11.5%)
Germany's Retail Sales ticked up 0.2% month-over-month (expected 0.3%, prior 0.9%) while the year-over-year reading increased 4.0% (consensus 3.5%; last -1.0%)
UK's BoE Consumer Credit expanded by GBP578 million (expected GBP1.20 billion; prior GBP1.23 billion) while Mortgage Lending came in at GBP1.60 billion (expected GBP2.00 billion)
French Consumer Spending increased 1.5% month-over-month (expected 0.2%; prior 0.2%)
Italy's PPI fell 1.8% year-over-year (prior -1.2%)
Spain's GDP rose 0.7% quarter-over-quarter (expected 0.6%; prior 0.5%) while CPI fell 1.4% year-over-year (expected -1.2%; last -1.0%)

------

UK's FTSE is lower by 0.3% with energy and consumer names on the defensive. Diageo, J Sainsbury, and Royal Dutch Shell are down between 1.3% and 2.4%.
Germany's DAX has given up 0.4% with heavyweights Bayer, Siemens, and Volkswagen dragging the index down. The three names are down between 0.7% and 2.7%. Lanxess outperforms, trading higher by 0.4%.
In France, the CAC is lower by 0.6%. Consumer names are among the laggards with Carrefour, Pernod Ricard, L'Oreal, and Danone down between 0.6% and 1.7%.

8:32 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -14.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -7.30. The S&P 500 futures trade 15 points below fair value.

The advance estimate of fourth quarter GDP pointed to an expansion of 2.6%, while the Briefing.com consensus expected a reading of 3.2%. Meanwhile, the fourth quarter GDP Deflator came in at 0.0%, while the consensus expected an increase of 1.0%.

Separately, the Q4 Employment Cost Index rose 0.6%, while the Briefing.com consensus expected an increase of 0.5%.

7:59 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -11.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -5.30. U.S. equity futures are under pressure amid cautious action overseas. The S&P 500 futures hover 12 points below fair value after a steady retreat throughout the night. However, more volatility is expected around 8:30 ET when the advance reading of Q4 GDP crosses the wires. The Briefing.com consensus expects the report to indicate growth of 3.2%. The Q4 Employment Cost Index (consensus 0.5%) will also be reported at 8:30 ET while the Chicago PMI report for January (consensus 58.0) will cross the wires at 9:45 ET and the final reading of the January Michigan Sentiment Index will follow at 9:55 ET (consensus 98.2).

Treasuries hold gains with the 10-yr yield down four basis points at 1.71%.

In U.S. corporate news of note:

Amazon.com (AMZN 346.50, +34.72): +11.1% after beating operating income estimates and issuing cautious guidance.
Biogen Idec (BIIB 374.52, +21.27): +6.0% in reaction to better than expected results and upbeat guidance.
Deckers Outdoor (DECK 70.00, -12.27): -14.9% following disappointing results and lowered guidance.
Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS 52.00, -3.14): -5.7% after the New York Post reported the retailer is not for sale. This follows reports from Reuters that suggested the company could go private.
Google (GOOGL 520.35, +7.12): +1.4% despite missing estimates.
Visa (V 257.59, +9.59): +3.9% after beating expectations and announcing a 4:1 stock split, effective March 19.

Reviewing overnight developments:

Asian markets ended mostly lower. China's Shanghai Composite -1.6%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng -0.4%, and Japan's Nikkei +0.4%
In economic data:
Japan's Housing Starts fell 14.7% year-over-year (expected -14.8%; prior -14.3%) while Industrial Production rose 1.0% month-over-month (expected 1.3%; prior -0.5%). Separately, National CPI rose 2.4% (consensus 2.3%; prior 2.4%) while National Core CPI increased 2.5% (expected 2.6%; previous 2.7%). Also of note, Household Spending rose 0.4% month-over-month (forecast 0.3%; last 0.4%) while the Unemployment Rate ticked down to 3.4% from 3.5% (expected 3.5%)
Australia's PPI ticked up 0.1% quarter-over-quarter (expected 0.3%; prior 0.2%) while Private Sector Credit increased 0.5%, as expected
Singapore's Unemployment Rate ticked down to 1.9% from 2.0% (expected 2.0%)
In news:
The yen strengthened after Japan's inflation data did not jive with the upbeat outlook provided by the country's government. The dollar/yen pair trades near 117.70 after sliding from 118.30

Major European indices trade mostly lower. UK's FTSE -0.4%, France's CAC -0.4%, and Germany's DAX -0.3%. Elsewhere, Spain's IBEX +0.1% and Italy's MIB -0.1%
Economic data was plentiful:
Eurozone CPI fell 0.6% year-over-year (expected -0.5%; prior -0.2%) while Core CPI rose 0.5% (consensus 0.6%; last 0.7%). Separately, the Unemployment Rate ticked down to 11.4% from 11.5% (consensus 11.5%)
Germany's Retail Sales ticked up 0.2% month-over-month (expected 0.3%, prior 0.9%) while the year-over-year reading increased 4.0% (consensus 3.5%; last -1.0%)
UK's BoE Consumer Credit expanded by GBP578 million (expected GBP1.20 billion; prior GBP1.23 billion) while Mortgage Lending came in at GBP1.60 billion (expected GBP2.00 billion)
French Consumer Spending increased 1.5% month-over-month (expected 0.2%; prior 0.2%)
Italy's PPI fell 1.8% year-over-year (prior -1.2%)
Spain's GDP rose 0.7% quarter-over-quarter (expected 0.6%; prior 0.5%) while CPI fell 1.4% year-over-year (expected -1.2%; last -1.0%)
Among news of note:
Investors in Europe are anxious to receive an update from the ongoing talks between Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras and Eurogroup Chair Jeroen Dijsselbloem

7:05 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -9.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +2.00.

7:05 am: [BRIEFING.COM] Nikkei...17,674.39...+68.20...+0.40%. Hang Seng...24,507.05...-88.80...-0.40%.

7:05 am: [BRIEFING.COM] FTSE...6,784.54...-26.10...-0.40%. DAX...10,727.53...-10.80...-0.10%.

U.S. Stocks Follow 2014 Lead With January Retreat

(Bloomberg) -- U.S. equities stumbled out of the gates in 2015 in a performance reminiscent of the start of 2014.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index ended its worst month since that previous January, falling from a record level after an 11 percent annual gain, as concern mounted that slowing growth overseas will hurt the American economy at the same time that the plunge in crude and the stronger dollar have shown signs of eroding corporate profits. A year ago, the S&P 500 tumbled after a 30 percent annual rally sent stocks to all-time highs.

The S&P 500 sank 3.1 percent to 1,994.99 this month. The drop contrasted with a 7.2 percent surge in the Stoxx Europe 600, the best start to a year since 1989, as the European Central Bank expanded its stimulus plan to combat deflation. Volatility returned to the U.S. equities market, with stock swings nearly doubling from 2014, as oil prices plunged 9.4 percent and the dollar rallied to the highest in more than a decade. Treasuries posted the best start to a year since 1988.

“Investors are nervous,” Jeff Kravetz, the Phoenix-based regional investment director at US Bank’s Private Client Reserve, said by phone. “In the U.S., the economic picture is very strong, but overseas there are a lot of mixed signals. The question investors are asking in the U.S. is, ‘Can the U.S. carry the rest of the world in terms of economic growth?’”

U.S. equities lost more than $700 billion in January as energy producers resumed declines and financial companies had the worst drop since May 2012. Technology shares also slid, with losses of more than 12 percent in Microsoft Corp. and Yahoo! Inc.

Earnings Pressure

The index’s weekly swings were violent, with moves of at least 1.2 percent in three of the four periods. The gauge tumbled 2.8 percent in the final five sessions of the month, capping the biggest weekly advance since Dec. 12.

The seventh straight monthly drop in crude prices fueled concern about the impact of plunging oil on corporate investment, and the strongest dollar in a decade is making American goods and services more expensive overseas, eroding sales. Companies from Procter & Gamble Co. to DuPont Co. and Pfizer Inc. have said the U.S. currency’s strength is hurting profits.

Earnings at S&P 500 companies grew 2.7 percent in the last three months of 2014, according to a Jan. 30 Bloomberg survey of analysts. That’s down from an estimate of 8.1 percent from a Bloomberg survey in October.

CEO Pessimism

At the same time, U.S. chief executive officers are more pessimistic about earnings than any time since the financial crisis. The percentage of companies cutting profit forecasts during this earnings season has outpaced those with upward revisions by 8.6 percentage points, the widest margin in six years, according to data compiled by Bespoke Investment Group LLC.

The anxiety has been reflected in heightened volatility in the markets. The S&P 500 capped two five-day losing streaks after going all of 2014 without falling for more than three days. The index has posted average daily moves of 0.92 percent so far this year, almost double the 0.53 percent average each day in 2014.

The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index swung at least 19 percent in three of the four full weeks in the month, climbing as high as 23.43 on Jan. 16 and dropping to 15.52 on Jan. 26. The gauge of trader anxiety ended the month with its biggest weekly slide since Dec. 12.

‘Bad January’

“A bad January is not typically a good thing for the year,” Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist at Wells Capital Management, said by phone. Paulsen helps manage $351 billion in assets. “People are just coming around more and more to the idea that volatility is here to stay and it appears more and more that the stock market looks a little riskier than we thought coming into the year.”

A renewed vow of patience from the Federal Reserve on interest rates couldn’t prevent the biggest two-day selloff in the Dow Jones Industrial Average in a year during the final week of January. The Fed boosted its assessment of the economy and downplayed low inflation readings in a policy statement Jan. 28, even as it acknowledged global risks.

Fed officials are confronting divergent economic forces as they weigh the timing of the first interest-rate increase since 2006. Surprisingly strong job gains argue for tightening sooner, while inflation held down by a plunge in oil prices and a cooling global economy provides grounds for delay.

GDP Slowdown

Data on the final trading day of the month showed gross domestic product in the U.S. expanded at a slower pace than forecast in the fourth quarter, suggesting companies and consumers will need more evidence the economy can sustain its momentum in the face global headwinds, including plunging commodity prices and the threat of deflation in Europe.

Stocks worldwide jumped on Jan. 22 by the most in two weeks after ECB President Mario Draghi announced an expanded asset-purchase program, including private and public securities. During the month, central banks from Canada to Switzerland, Singapore and Russia shocked currency traders with surprise policy announcements.

Financial shares in the S&P 500 slid 7 percent for the biggest monthly decline since May 2012 as the three largest U.S. banks posted their worst combined quarterly trading revenue since 2011. JPMorgan Chase & Co., Bank of America Corp. and Citigroup Inc. each plunged at least 13 percent as declines in fixed-income, currencies and commodities pulled down trading revenue.

Energy Stocks

Energy companies lost 4.9 percent as oil extended the longest stretch of monthly retreats since 2009. All but nine of the 43 energy stocks in the S&P 500 dropped. Denbury Resources Inc. and Diamond Offshore Drilling Inc. fell at least 14 percent. Chevron Corp. dropped 8.6 percent and Exxon Mobil Corp. lost 5.4 percent.

Caterpillar Inc. plunged 13 percent, pacing declines in industrial shares. The world’s largest mining and construction equipment maker forecast 2015 sales and earnings that trailed analysts’ estimates as plunging oil signal lower demand from energy companies.

Utility companies gained 2.3 percent as investors bought shares deemed to be more secure. The group of power companies has a dividend yield of 3.2 percent, higher than the S&P 500’s dividend yield of 2 percent, Bloomberg data show. Yields on 10-year U.S. Treasuries dropped 53 basis points to 1.64 percent, the lowest level in 20 months.

For investors looking for parallels to 2014, there may be a silver lining. After January’s 3.6 percent plunge, the S&P 500 posted five consecutive months of gains. The index endured four declines of 4 percent or more last year before rallying each time to fresh highs in a month or less. The U.S. benchmark gauge last closed at a record Dec. 29 and has declined 4.6 percent since then.

“We wouldn’t read too much into what’s gone on in the first month for the rest of the year,” Kravetz said. “U.S. fundamentals are very good and rates are very low in developed markets, which are supportive of risk assets. This could be a good year for the U.S. stock market as well as the bond market.”

To contact the reporters on this story: Callie Bost in New York at cbost2@bloomberg.net; Michelle F. Davis in New York at mdavis194@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Jeff Sutherland at jsutherlan13@bloomberg.net Jeremy Herron, Michael P. Regan

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney, Reuters and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader Image@ http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader

http://www.thestrategylab.com
Phone: +1 708 572-4885
Business Hours: 8am - 5pm est (Mon - Fri)
Skype Messenger: kebec2002
questions@thestrategylab.com
Go Back To TheStrategyLab.com Homepage


Top
 Profile  
 
Display posts from previous:  Sort by  
Post new topic Reply to topic Bookmark and Share  [ 1 post ] 

All times are UTC - 5 hours


Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest


You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot post attachments in this forum

Search for:
Jump to:  
cron
Powered by phpBB © 2000, 2002, 2005, 2007 phpBB Group
Translated by Xaphos © 2007, 2008, 2009 phpBB.fr