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 Post subject: December 16th Tuesday Trade Results - Profit $13337.50
PostPosted: Wed Dec 17, 2014 2:01 am 
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Joined: Sat Jan 10, 2009 2:06 pm
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Location: Canada
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Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
Phone: +1 708 572-4885
Free Chat Room: http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=164
Business Hours: 8am - 5pm est (Mon - Fri)
questions@thestrategylab.com (24/7)
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click on the above image to view today's performance verification

Price Action Trade Performance for Today: Emini TF ($TF_F) futures @ $400.00 dollars or +4.00 points, Emini ES ($ES_F) futures @ $12,937.50 dollars or +258.75 points, Light Crude Oil CL ($CL_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.00 points, Gold GC ($GC_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.00 points and EuroFX 6E ($6E_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.0000 ticks. Total Profit @ $13,337.50 dollars

Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures: 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures: 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup
Light Crude Oil CL (WTI) Futures: 1 tick or 0.01 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup
Gold GC Futures: 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup
EuroFX 6E Futures: 1 tick or 0.0001 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup

Trade Log: All of my trades were posted real-time in the timestamp ##TheStrategyLab chat room. You can read today's price action trading information about my trades (e.g. time, price entry, contract size, price exit) as the trade traversed to its completion. Also, sometimes I'll post real-time trading tips in ##TheStrategyLab chat room involving WRBs, WRB Hidden GAPs, Key Market Events (KME), Tutorial Chapters 2 & 3, WRB Zones, Reaction Highs/Lows, Contracting Volatility or Expanding Volatility. Its all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=137&t=1959

Quote:
All of my real-time posted trades involves price action concepts from the WRB Analysis free study guide, Advance WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 4 - 12 and the Volatility Trading Report (VTR) trade signal strategies. Analysis -----> Trade Signals

Also, posted below are direct links to information about my price action trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis). I'm primarily a day trader because it suits my personal lifestyle but I do occasionally swing trade and position trade. Simply, my trade method is applicable for position trading, swing trading and day trading.

Image ##TheStrategyLab Chat Room is free. Members and I use the chat room to post WRB Analysis commentary, real-time trades and to post anything else related to trading. The chat room helps me tremendously in my own trading because I use it to document (journal) general volatility analysis involving WRB Analysis so that I can easily review at a later date my thoughts as I interacted with the markets...info I can not get from my broker statements. Also, this is not a signal calling chat room where a head trader tells you when to buy or sell and I do not have the time/energy/resources to manage a signal calling chat room. Access instructions for chat room @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=164

Image Price Action Analysis via Advance WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=119&t=718

Analysis -----> Trade Signals

Image Trade Signal Strategies via Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our price action trade strategies with support (answering your questions) prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

All WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1 - 12 are included in the purchase of the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Image Trading Plan Daily Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=252&t=2585

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Market Context Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, CNNMoney, Reuters and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED/ECB/BOE/IMF actions or any important global economic events (e.g. Eurozone, MarketWatch.com) that had an impact on today's price action in many trading instruments I monitor during the trading day. Simply, I'm a strong believer that key market events causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility resulting in trade opportunities (swing points and strong continuation price actions) that reach profit targets. Thus, I pay attention to these key market events, intermarket analysis (e.g. Forex EurUsd, EuroFX 6E futures, Gold GC futures, Light Crude Oil (WTI) CL & Brent Oil futures, Eurex DAX futures, Euronext FTSE100 futures, Emini ES futures, Emini TF futures, Treasury ZB futures and U.S. Dollar Index futures) while using WRB Analysis from one trade to the next trade to give me the market context for price action trading before the appearance of my technical analysis trade signals. Therefore, I maintain these archives to allow me to understand what was happening on any given trading day in the past involving key market events to help better understand my trade decisions (day trading, swing trading, position trading)...something I can not get from my broker statements alone. Further, most financial websites remove (delete) their archives after a few years to make room for new content. Therefore, I maintain my own archives of the news content so that I have it available for me when financial websites no longer archives their content.

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click on the above image to view today's price action of key markets

Stocks Slump With One Eye on Russia

4:15 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The stock market endured a volatile session on Tuesday with investors keeping one eye on the oil market and one on the dollar/ruble exchange rate. The Russell 2000 (-0.1%) registered the slimmest decline while the S&P 500 settled lower by 0.9% after failing to hold its 100-day (1988) and 50-day moving averages (2001).

Yesterday evening, the Central Bank of Russia hiked its key interest rate by 650-basis points to 17.0% with the move aimed at halting the recent freefall in the ruble. The news gave a brief boost to the Russian currency, but the ruble was down more than 18.0% (77.93) against the dollar this morning, which invited concerns about potential economic and financial risks stemming from the continued plunge. This sent participants scrambling in search of safe havens, which boosted Treasuries and the yen.

Meanwhile in the commodity market, crude oil was down in excess of 2.5% this morning, but the energy component spiked off its low shortly after the start of the pit session. Oil was able to return to its flat line, but could not make a sustained move into the green, ending with a nine-cent loss at $55.87/bbl.

The rebound in crude occurred as equities climbed off their lows, while the ruble managed to reclaim its overnight loss. Also of note, the dollar/yen pair narrowed its decline to about 110 pips (116.70), allowing the Dollar Index (87.93, -0.53) to climb off its low. The index hovers just below its November high going into tomorrow's FOMC policy directive, which will be released at 14:00 ET.

While the FOMC statement is likely to acknowledge continued growth and strength in the U.S. labor market, it is unlikely that it will have a strong hawkish undertone considering the recent weakness in crude oil and the resulting impact on inflation.

Only two sectors ended the day in the green with energy (+0.7%) representing the lone advancer on the cyclical side. The energy sector was able to rally as participants deemed the growth-sensitive sector oversold on a short-term basis after losing 8.1% so far in December. Today's advance trimmed the sector's month-to-date loss to 7.0% with Dow component Chevron (CVX 101.70, +0.84) climbing 0.8%.

Also of note, the industrial ended on its flat line, owing its outperformance to defense contractors, and specifically, shares of Boeing (BA 124.25, +2.17). The stock jumped 1.8% after the company hiked its quarterly dividend 25.0% to $0.91 per share and increased its share repurchase plan to $12 billion.

The remaining cyclical sectors could not stay out of the red with consumer discretionary (-1.6%), financials (-1.0%), and technology (-1.5%) driving the market to fresh lows during afternoon action.

Notably, the tech sector trailed the broader market throughout the day, but its underperformance proved to be a significant drag in the afternoon. Google (GOOGL 498.16, -17.68) and Microsoft (MSFT 45.22, -1.45) posted respective losses of 3.4% and 3.1%, with the latter suffering from a Bank of America/Merrill Lynch downgrade to 'Underperform' from 'Neutral.'

The underperformance of technology kept the Nasdaq (-1.2%) behind the S&P 500 throughout the day while afternoon weakness in the biotech space pressured the tech-heavy index to a fresh low ahead of the close. The iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 293.67, -3.99) and the health care sector both lost 1.3%.

Treasuries ended near their highs with the 10-yr yield lower by seven basis points at 2.05%.

Participation was ahead of average with more than 996 million shares changing hands at the NYSE floor.

Economic data was limited to Housing Starts and Business Permits:

Housing starts declined 1.6% in November to 1.028 million from an upwardly revised 1.045 million (from 1.009 million) while the Briefing.com consensus expected a reading of 1.035 million
Recent gains in the NAHB Homebuilders survey suggested rapid construction growth is on the near-term horizon. Over the last 12 months, however, housing starts have averaged 994,000 per month and recent trends are slightly upward moving. Homebuilders may be saying that they expect strong demand growth, yet the lackluster housing starts data clearly show that they are not actively preparing for accelerated demand
Building Permits declined 5.2% to 1.035 million while the consensus expected a reading of 1.060 million

Tomorrow, the weekly MBA Mortgage Index will be released at 7:00 ET while November CPI (Briefing.com consensus -0.1%), Core CPI (consensus 0.1%), and Q3 Current Account Balance (consensus -$95.00 billion) will all be reported at 8:30 ET. Also of note, the FOMC will release its latest policy directive at 14:00 ET.

Nasdaq Composite +8.9% YTD
S&P 500 +6.7% YTD
Dow Jones Industrial Average +3.0% YTD
Russell 2000 -2.0% YTD

3:35 pm: [BRIEFING.COM]

Oil prices sold off hard this morning, but managed to come back with a nice rally
Jan crude fell as low as $53.60/barrel, but gained some buying interest and rallied above $57/barrel.
Jan pulled back following a fast rally and ultimately settled nine cents lower at $55.87/barrel
Natural gas were weak today on forecasts for mild U.S. temperatures
Jan nat gas ended the day 10 cents lower at $3.62/MMBtu.
Silver has a brutal session, falling far more than gold prices did today
Mar silver lost $0.77 or -5% to $15.73/oz today, while Feb gold lost $13.30 to $1194.30/oz

2:55 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 trades flat with one hour remaining in the session. The benchmark index was very active in morning action, but the past 90 minutes or so have seen range-bound action with the S&P 500 respecting an eight-point range just above its flat line.

The energy sector (+1.8%) remains on track to finish the day ahead of other groups and the industrial sector (+0.8%) is the only other outperformer left on the cyclical side. Meanwhile, the top-weighted technology sector (-0.4%) has slipped to an afternoon low while the consumer discretionary sector (-0.9%) has retreated to its lowest level since this morning.

2:25 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] Afternoon action continues with the S&P 500 (+0.3%) trying to maintain its narrow gain while the Nasdaq (-0.1%) has been trapped below its flat line since just after 13:00 ET.

The tech-heavy index has trailed the broader market since the start with a handful of large cap tech names like Google (GOOGL 505.31, -10.53), Microsoft (MSFT 45.85, -0.82), and Facebook (FB 75.94, -1.05) contributing to the underperformance. Meanwhile, biotechnology had shown some strength in the early going, but the iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 297.41, -0.25) is now trading lower by 0.1%. Similarly, the health care sector (-0.1%) hovers just below its flat line.

2:00 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (+0.3%) sports a slim afternoon gain while the Nasdaq hovers just below its flat line.

Recent gains in the NAHB Homebuilders survey suggested rapid construction growth is on the near-term horizon. Over the last 12 months, however, housing starts have averaged 994,000 per month and recent trends are slightly upward moving.

Homebuilders may be saying that they expect strong demand growth, yet the lackluster housing starts data clearly show that they are not actively preparing for an acceleration in demand.

The FOMC completes its last meeting in 2014 tomorrow, and the focus will be on whether or not the FOMC decides to remove the "considerable time" wording from the statement. With the economic growth accelerating, a nearer term rate hike is becoming more likely.

1:35 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The U.S. markets continue to be volatile. The Nasdaq, up as much as 40 points earlier, is now down 14 points or 0.3%. The other U.S. indices remain slightly higher with the S&P 500 flat and the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 0.2%. The S&P 500 at this point, though, has erased a gain of over 1%.

The relative strength of the blue chip averages has been driven in part by news of sizable dividend increases at CVS Health (CVS 93.18, +3.31), Boeing (BA 124.53, +2.45), and 3M (MMM 159.80, +2.95). Those blue chip names raised their quarterly dividend payments by 27%, 25%, and 20%, respectively, signaling confidence in their respective earnings and cash flow prospects. That has been a welcome measure of support amid the volatility and turmoil surrounding both oil prices and Russia today.

The energy sector remains the top gainer on the day (+1.4%), but has come well off its highs that had it up in excess of 3.0%. Be that as it may, the recognition that oil stocks didn't fall out of bed completely with the flush in WTI crude futures below $54.00/bbl earlier today has spurred some bargain hunting/short-covering interest in the sector.

1:00 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The major averages sport solid midday gains with the Russell 2000 (+0.9%) trading ahead of the S&P 500 (+0.5%) and Nasdaq Composite (+0.2%). Although the key indices trade in the green at this juncture, the start of the session was not nearly as upbeat.

Last evening, the Central Bank of Russia announced a 650-basis point rate hike to 17.0% with the move aimed at halting the freefall in the ruble. The Russian currency rallied briefly, but was down more than 18.0% against the dollar this morning, which stoked up concerns about potential economic and financial risks stemming from the continued plunge. This led to safe-haven demand, which boosted Treasuries and the yen.

Adding insult to injury, crude oil was down more than $2.00/bbl this morning, which added to the cautious posture. However, the energy component was able to rally shortly after the start of the pit session, and currently trades higher by 0.2% at $56.04/bbl.

The rebound in crude occurred as the currency market began retracing some of its moves from this morning. To that point, the Dollar has narrowed its gain against the ruble to 3.5%, while the dollar/yen pair has narrowed its loss to about 50 pips at 117.28 after marking a low at 115.56. Similarly, Treasuries have surrendered a portion of their morning advance, but the 10-yr note remains in the green with its yield down five basis points at 2.07%.

Nine of ten sectors sport midday gains with energy (+2.6%) leading the rebound while other commodity-linked sectors like materials (+1.0%) and industrials (+1.1%) have also shown strength. The industrial sector has been underpinned by defense contractors with Dow component Boeing (BA 124.87, +2.79) trading higher by 2.3% after hiking its quarterly dividend 25.0% to $0.91 per share and increasing its share repurchase plan to $12 billion.

Interestingly, the relative strength in these areas has not stopped participants from approaching other cyclical sectors with a measure of caution. Top-weighted technology (+0.3%) and financials (+0.5%) underperform while the consumer discretionary sector (-0.1%) represents the lone decliner. Apparel retailers have kept the discretionary sector under pressure while homebuilders outperform with the iShares Dow Jones US Home Construction ETF (ITB 24.43, +0.15) trading higher by 0.6%.

Over on the countercyclical side, consumer staples (+0.7%) and telecom services (+1.5%) outperform while health care (+0.3%) and utilities (+0.4%) lag.

Economic data was limited to Housing Starts and Business Permits:

Housing starts declined 1.6% in November to 1.028 million from an upwardly revised 1.045 million (from 1.009 million) while the Briefing.com consensus expected a reading of 1.035 million
Recent gains in the NAHB Homebuilders survey suggested rapid construction growth is on the near-term horizon. Over the last 12 months, however, housing starts have averaged 994,000 per month and recent trends are slightly upward moving. Homebuilders may be saying that they expect strong demand growth, yet the lackluster housing starts data clearly show that they are not actively preparing for accelerated demand
Building Permits declined 5.2% to 1.035 million while the consensus expected a reading of 1.060 million

12:30 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 trades higher by 0.8% with all ten sectors showing gains at this juncture. The energy sector (+2.7%) is the top performer, but despite today's advance, the group remains lower by 5.2% for the month.

Meanwhile, the remaining nine groups also sport month-to-date losses with telecom services down 7.9% since the end of November while the utilities sector has held up relatively well. The sector is lower by 0.6% so far this month versus a 3.0% decline for the S&P 500.

Elsewhere, Treasuries hover in the middle of their range with the 10-yr yield lower by five basis points at 2.07%.

12:00 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] Equity indices trade on their highs after a breathless rally that sent the S&P 500 (+0.9%) higher by about 20 points within an hour. Similarly, crude oil, which has been setting the overall direction of the market, sits near its high at $56.18/bbl (+0.5%).

The recent spike in equities has been accompanied by dollar strength in the foreign exchange market with the Dollar Index (88.08, -0.38) cutting its early loss in half. The greenback has rallied against the yen with the dollar/yen pair at 117.50 after marking a morning low near 115.56. Despite the recovery, the yen is still higher by about 50 pips against the dollar on the day.

Also of note, the Russian ruble has recovered the bulk of its morning plunge and now trades near 67.00 against the dollar amid news some foreign exchange brokers have stopped accepting orders in the dollar/ruble pair.

11:25 am: [BRIEFING.COM] The major averages have extended their rebound with the S&P 500 (+1.0%) back above the 2,000 level with just one sector-consumer discretionary (-0.1%)-remaining in negative territory.

On the upside, the energy sector (+3.2%) has surged into the lead in a move that coincided with a rebound in crude futures. The energy component is now higher by 1.7% at $56.88/bbl after dipping below $53.70 about an hour before the start of the U.S. cash session.

Outside of energy, the industrial sector (+1.5%) also sports a solid gain after spending the early part of the session ahead of the broader market. Defense contractors are largely responsible for the strength with the PHLX Defense Index higher by 1.6%. Transport stocks also trade in the green, but the Dow Jones Transportation Average (+0.4%) trails the broader market.

11:00 am: [BRIEFING.COM] The Dow (+0.4%) and S&P 500 (+0.7%) sit on their highs after rebounding from opening lows while the Nasdaq Composite (-0.1%) has yet to make its way into positive territory.

The tech-heavy index trails the broader market amid weakness in top-weighted tech sector (-0.2%) components like Google (GOOGL 507.60, -8.24), Facebook (FB 76.39, -0.60), and Microsoft (MSFT 45.78, -0.89). However, the top-weighted sector component-Apple (AAPL 108.35, +0.13)-trades higher by 0.1% after erasing its early loss.

Also of note, chipmakers and biotechnology have recently climbed into the green. The iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology (IBB 299.56, +1.90) is higher by 0.6% while the PHLX Semiconductor Index trades up 0.2%.

10:35 am: [BRIEFING.COM]

Oil prices began the morning lower and fell as low as $53.60/barrel.
However, in recent trade crude oil has been getting and bid and is showing a nice rally off its LoD
Jan crude is still in the red, but is currently -1.6% at $55.00/barrel.
Natural gas sold off on weather forecasts and hit a new LoD in recent trade at $3.63/MMBtu. Jan nat gas is now -1.2% at $3.67/MMBtu
Silver is getting smashed as precious metals sell off
Mar silver just hit a new LoD and is now -4.3% at $15.86/oz
Feb gold is -0.9% at $1196.50/oz

9:55 am: [BRIEFING.COM] Recent action saw the major averages follow in the footsteps of the Russell 2000, which has shown strength since the start and now trades higher by 0.3%. As for the Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P 500, the three indices hover just below their flat lines with the Nasdaq (-0.3%) trailing the other two.

With regards to individual sectors, the industrial space (+0.5%) remains in the lead and the energy sector (+0.4%) has recently climbed into the green. On the downside, financials (-0.6%) and consumer discretionary (-0.5%) remain weak.

Elsewhere, Treasuries remain bid with the 10-yr yield down six basis points at 2.06%.

9:40 am: [BRIEFING.COM] The major averages began the session under pressure, but the Russell 2000 (-0.1%) has been able to open ahead of the Dow (-0.4%), Nasdaq (-0.5%), and S&P 500 (-0.4%).

Nine of ten sectors display opening losses with financials (-0.9%) and energy (-0.7%) pressuring the broader market. Heavily-weighted consumer discretionary (-0.6%) and technology (-0.6%) also lag while the industrial sector (+0.2%) has been boosted by Boeing (BA 124.90, +2.82), which trades higher by 2.3% after boosting its dividend and adding to its share repurchase program. Transport stocks also trade ahead of the broader market with the Dow Jones Transportation Average higher by 0.1%.

Elsewhere, Treasuries have slipped from their highs, but they remain in positive territory with the 10-yr yield lower by seven basis points at 2.05%.

9:08 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -6.60. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -15.50. The stock market is on track for a lower start as futures on the S&P 500 trade seven points below fair value. Index futures held modest gains through the overnight session, but slumped to lows in early morning action amid safe haven flows in the foreign exchange market where the yen has built on yesterday's advance and currently trades higher by about 150 pips against the dollar at 116.25.

Staying in the foreign exchange market, the dollar has rallied more than 10.0% against the Russian ruble to 72.72 after the Central Bank of Russia hiked its key rate 650 basis points to 17.0%. The move gave a brief boost to the ruble, but the currency has made new lows since the announcement. Considering the size of the Russian economy, relentless weakness in the currency has stirred up concerns about the potential for financial or default risk. Despite the rally against the ruble, the Dollar Index (87.83, -0.63) is testing its December low as participants reduce their dollar exposure ahead of tomorrow's FOMC statement.

Meanwhile in Europe, German Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann reiterated his opposition to a sovereign QE program from the European Central Bank, saying there is a "row of economic reasons that speak against government bond purchases." European financials have retreated this morning while the euro trades higher by about 80 pips against the dollar at 1.2525.

Back to the U.S., index futures have climbed off their lows, but the cautious sentiment remains present with Treasuries near their highs and the 10-yr yield lower by five basis points at 2.07%.

Also of note, crude oil has moved off its low in recent action. The energy component remains lower by 2.3% at $54.64/bbl after adding about a dollar off its session low.

8:54 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -9.10. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -21.30. The S&P 500 futures trade nine points below fair value.

It was a sea of red across most of Asia. China's Shanghai Composite (+2.3%) was the lone gainer as the contractionary reading of the HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI (49.5; 49.9) fanned speculation for more PBoC easing. Elsewhere, the latest Reserve Bank of Australia minutes suggested a period of stable rates remains likely.

In other economic data:
Japan's Manufacturing PMI ticked up to 52.1 from 52.0 (consensus 52.3)

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Japan's Nikkei lost 2.0% after being pressured to its lowest close since Halloween. Only seven of the 225 listings finished in positive territory.
Hong Kong's Hang Seng flushed to its lowest level in seven months, falling 1.6%. Losses were widespread with casino play Galaxy Entertainment and real estate developer China Overseas Land & Investment both giving up 3.6%.
China's Shanghai Composite rallied 2.3% to levels last seen in April 2011. Brokerage firms Citic Securities and Haitong Securities surged the limit, 10%, on speculation Beijing will not cut off margin trading.
India's Sensex fell 2.0% to settle at a two-month low with trade dipping below the 100-day average. Materials names saw significant selling as Sesa Sterlite and Hindalco Industries lost 7.8% and 5.5%, respectively.

Major European indices trade mostly lower after sliding from their highs with Spain's IBEX (-1.2%) showing the largest decline. Yesterday, the Central Bank of Russia hiked its key interest rate 650 basis points to 17.0% in an attempt to stop the freefall in the ruble, but the effort only produced short-lived results. The ruble rallied on the announcement, but has already retraced that move and then some. Dollar/ruble trades near 72.60 (+11.0%) while the euro/ruble pair is just below 91.00 (+11.0%). On a separate note, Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann reiterated his stance against a sovereign QE program, saying there is a "row of economic reasons that speak against government bond purchases."

Participants received several data points:
Eurozone Services PMI rose to 51.9 from 51.1 (expected 51.5) while Manufacturing PMI increased to 50.8 from 50.1 (consensus 50.5). Also of note, trade surplus expanded to EUR19.40 billion from EUR17.90 billion (expected surplus of EUR18.20 billion)
Germany's Services PMI fell to 51.4 from 52.1 (expected 52.6) while Manufacturing PMI rose to 51.2 from 49.5 (consensus 50.4). Separately, ZEW Economic Sentiment jumped to 34.9 from 11.5 (expected 20.8)
UK's CPI slipped 0.3% month-over-month (expected 0.1%; previous 0.1%) while the year-over-year reading increased 1.0% (consensus 1.2%; last 1.3%) while core CPI rose 1.2% year-over-year (expected 1.5%; last 1.5%). Also of note, Input PPI fell 1.0% month-over-month (expected -1.4%; prior -1.5%)
French Manufacturing PMI fell to 47.9 from 48.4 (expected 48.6) while Services PMI improved to 49.8 from 47.9 (expected 48.3)
Italy's trade surplus widened to EUR5.40 billion from EUR2.02 billion (expected surplus of EUR1.97 billion)

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UK's FTSE is higher by 0.4% amid strength in energy names. Tullow Oil and Royal Dutch Shell are both up near 1.8%. Consumer names weigh with Coca-Cola HBC, Associated British Foods, Diageo, and Unilever down between 1.5% and 4.4%.
Germany's DAX trades down 0.2%. Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank weigh with respective losses of 2.7% and 2.0%. Daimler and Deutsche Lufthansa outperforms, trading higher by 1.0% and 1.8%, respectively.
In France, the CAC is lower by 0.7%. Societe Generale is the weakest performer, down 4.0%, while peer Credit Agricole trades just below its flat line. Gemalto and Orange outperform with gains close to 2.8% and 2.2%, respectively.
Spain's IBEX has given up 1.3%. Telefonica (-3.1%) is among the laggards while construction names trade mixed. FCC is higher by 1.4% and Acciona trades down 1.0%.

8:34 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -6.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -15.80. The S&P 500 futures trade seven points below fair value.

Housing Starts fell to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 1,028,000 units in November. That was down from a revised 1.045 million units in October. The Briefing.com consensus expected starts to decrease to 1.035 million units.

Building permits fell to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 1.035 million in November versus a revised 1.092 million for October. The Briefing.com consensus expected permits to come in at 1.06 million.

8:00 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -14.90. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -30.80. U.S. equity futures trade near their pre-market lows after sliding from their overnight highs over the past two hours. The S&P 500 futures trade 15 points below fair value with the entire decline taking place amid defensive action in the foreign exchange market where the yen has climbed more than 150 pips against the dollar (115.90) while the Russian ruble has surrendered 13.0% against the greenback despite yesterday's surprise 650-basis point rate hike from the Central Bank of Russia to 17.0%. Meanwhile, the Dollar Index is lower by 0.8% at 87.77.

Also of note, dollar weakness has been unable to provide support to crude oil, which trades lower by 2.8% at $54.32/bbl.

Treasuries hold solid gains with the 10-yr yield lower by eight basis points at 2.04%.

Today's economic data will be limited to November Housing Starts (Briefing.com consensus 1.035 million) and Building Permits (consensus 1.06 million) with both reports set to be released at 8:30 ET.

In U.S. corporate news of note:

Boeing (BA 123.49, +1.41): +1.2% after hiking its quarterly dividend 25.0% to $0.91 per share and increasing its share repurchase plan to $12 billion.
Microsoft (MSFT 46.05, -0.62): -1.3% after Bank of America/Merrill Lynch downgraded the stock to 'Underperform' from 'Neutral.'

Reviewing overnight developments:

Asian markets ended mostly lower. Hong Kong's Hang Seng -1.6%, Japan's Nikkei -2.0%, and China's Shanghai Composite +2.3%
Economic data was limited:
China's HSBC Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.5 from 50.0 (expected 49.9)
Japan's Manufacturing PMI ticked up to 52.1 from 52.0 (consensus 52.3)
In news:
China's HSBC Manufacturing PMI report revealed increasing disinflationary pressures, which HSBC attributed to weak demand

Major European indices trade lower across the board after sliding from their highs. UK's FTSE -0.3%, Germany's DAX -0.7%, and France's CAC -1.5%. Elsewhere, Italy's MIB -0.8% and Spain's IBEX -1.8%
Participants received several data points:
Eurozone Services PMI rose to 51.9 from 51.1 (expected 51.5) while Manufacturing PMI increased to 50.8 from 50.1 (consensus 50.5). Also of note, trade surplus expanded to EUR19.40 billion from EUR17.90 billion (expected surplus of EUR18.20 billion)
Germany's Services PMI fell to 51.4 from 52.1 (expected 52.6) while Manufacturing PMI rose to 51.2 from 49.5 (consensus 50.4). Separately, ZEW Economic Sentiment jumped to 34.9 from 11.5 (expected 20.8)
UK's CPI slipped 0.3% month-over-month (expected 0.1%; previous 0.1%) while the year-over-year reading increased 1.0% (consensus 1.2%; last 1.3%) while core CPI rose 1.2% year-over-year (expected 1.5%; last 1.5%). Also of note, Input PPI fell 1.0% month-over-month (expected -1.4%; prior -1.5%)
French Manufacturing PMI fell to 47.9 from 48.4 (expected 48.6) while Services PMI improved to 49.8 from 47.9 (expected 48.3)
Italy's trade surplus widened to EUR5.40 billion from EUR2.02 billion (expected surplus of EUR1.97 billion)
Among news of note:
The Central Bank of Russia hiked its key interest rate 650 basis points to 17.0% last evening in an attempt to stop the freefall in the ruble, but the effort only produced short-lived results. The ruble rallied on the announcement, but has already retraced that move and then some. Dollar/ruble trades near 75.77 (+13.0%) while the euro/ruble pair is just below 95.00 (+16.0%)

7:13 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -10.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -21.00.

7:13 am: [BRIEFING.COM] Nikkei...16,755.32...-344.10...-2.00%. Hang Seng...22,670.50...-357.40...-1.60%.

7:13 am: [BRIEFING.COM] FTSE...6,216.32...+33.30...+0.50%. DAX...9,340.53...+6.50...+0.10%.

Stocks Sink as Rallies Erased Amid Ruble Slump; Yen Gains

By Emma O’Brien and Lu Wang Dec 16, 2014 4:49 PM ET

U.S. stocks fell in a whirlwind day that saw two rallies vanish, leaving the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index at a seven-week low as Russia’s biggest interest-rate increase since 1998 failed to arrest the ruble’s slide. Treasuries advanced with the yen.

The S&P 500 slipped 0.9 percent to 1,972.74 by 4 p.m. in New York, its lowest close since Oct. 27, while the Nasdaq 100 Index slid 1.6 percent. The ruble plunged beyond 70 to a dollar for the first time, even after the Bank of Russia boosted its key rate by 6.5 percentage points. Yields on 10-year Treasuries dropped six basis points to 2.06 percent as the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index slid 0.5 percent. The yen rose to a four-week high versus the greenback, jumping as much as 1.9 percent. Brent crude closed below $60 at a more-than five-year low.

Crude oil prices have tumbled more than 40 percent this year, subduing price growth and hobbling the economy of Russia, the world’s largest energy exporter. While Fed policy makers are mulling their timeline for higher interest rates amid signs the U.S. recovery is firming, the Bank of England said today the global economic outlook has weakened in the past five months. A preliminary measure of manufacturing in China, the second-biggest economy globally, fell to a seven-month low.

“We’re trading a lot on headlines and much of that has been dominated by crude, credit and currencies, so not exactly the fundamentals to make good equity decisions,” Jim Dunigan, chief investment officer at PNC Bank NA, which oversees $130 billion, said by phone from Philadelphia. “There continues to be a backdrop of the U.S. economy improving and we’ll probably see some confirmation from the Fed on that.”

Markets Whipsawed

For a second day, investors were whipsawed by the biggest U.S. stock swings in two months. The S&P 500 fell 0.7 percent in early trading, then rebounded to rise as much as 1.4 percent before reversing that gain.

West Texas Intermediate crude traded as low as $53.60 a barrel and touched $57.15, while gold swung $36 from peak to trough. The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, known as the VIX, jumped 15 percent, rising for the sixth time in seven days to close at the highest level since Oct. 16. Global stocks also retreated, with the MSCI All-Country World Index falling 0.1 percent despite gains in European shares.

“All the markets are incredibly volatile today from gold to Treasuries to junk bond spreads, stocks and currencies,” Jim Paulsen, who helps oversee $345 billion as chief investment strategist at Wells Capital Management, said by phone from San Francisco. “If oil shows some signs of support, which we saw today, you have a lot of people coming in behind it. If it breaks down, you have people getting out not wanting to catch a falling knife.”

Oil Glut

Crude has been sliding as the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries seeks to defend market share while the U.S. shale oil boom exacerbates a global glut. OPEC shouldn’t be expected to cut output while other producers continue to expand, the United Arab Emirates energy minister said.

The ruble touched below 80 per dollar before paring declines after Economy Minister Alexei Ulyukayev denied speculation that the government would turn to foreign-exchange restrictions to stop Russians from converting money into dollars. It traded recently at 68 per dollar, down 5.4 percent, after earlier rallying as much as 11 percent on the rates move.

Russia’s dollar-denominated RTS Index (RTSI$) plunged 12 percent to the lowest level since November 2008. The RTS index has fallen 15 of the past 16 sessions, sinking 42 percent since Nov. 24. The Micex Index added 1.4 percent today.

The nation’s central bank is struggling to restore confidence in a financial system facing its largest outflows in six years amid sanctions over Ukraine and tumbling oil prices. Ten-year government-bond yields jumped 305 basis points to 16.3 percent.

In China, the so-called flash manufacturing purchasing managers’ index from HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics fell to 49.5. It’s the first time since May that the gauge has slipped below 50, the threshold between expansion and contraction.

To contact the reporters on this story: Emma O’Brien in Wellington at eobrien6@bloomberg.net; Lu Wang in New York at lwang8@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Jeff Sutherland at jsutherlan13@bloomberg.net Jeremy Herron, Emma O’Brien

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney, Reuters and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader Image@ http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader

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