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 Post subject: November 20th Thursday Trade Results - No Trades
PostPosted: Thu Nov 20, 2014 5:56 pm 
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Joined: Sat Jan 10, 2009 2:06 pm
Posts: 4335
Location: Canada
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Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
Phone: +1 708 572-4885
Free Chat Room: http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=164
Business Hours: 8am - 5pm est (Mon - Fri)
questions@thestrategylab.com (24/7)
http://twitter.com/wrbtrader (24/7)

Quote:
No trades today again as yesterday due to internet problems due to an outage at my ISP provider. I missed the morning session because of the outage and then decided to not trade the afternoon trading session because I missed the morning market context information that would be needed to properly trade the afternoon trading session into the regular session close.

Price Action Trade Performance for Today: Emini TF ($TF_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.00 points, Emini ES ($ES_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +00.00 points, Light Crude Oil CL ($CL_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.00 points, Gold GC ($GC_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.00 points and EuroFX 6E ($6E_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.0000 ticks. Total Profit @ $0.00 dollars

Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures: 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures: 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup
Light Crude Oil CL (WTI) Futures: 1 tick or 0.01 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup
Gold GC Futures: 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup
EuroFX 6E Futures: 1 tick or 0.0001 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup

Trade Log: All of my trades were posted real-time in the timestamp ##TheStrategyLab chat room. You can read today's price action trading information about my trades (e.g. time, price entry, contract size, price exit) as the trade traversed to its completion. Also, sometimes I'll post real-time trading tips involving WRBs, WRB Hidden GAPs, Key Market Events (KME), Tutorial Chapters 2 & 3, WRB Zones, Reaction Highs/Lows, Contracting Volatility or Expanding Volatility. Its all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=136&t=1939

Quote:
If any of my real-time posted trades are via key concepts discussed in the WRB Analysis free study guide or the Fading Volatility Breakout (FVB) free trade signal strategy...I will discuss the reasons (trade strategy) behind those trades if/when a user of ##TheStrategyLab chat room ask questions about the trades. In contrast, real-time posted trades that are via the Advance WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 4 - 12 or the Volatility Trading Report (VTR) trade signal strategies...I discuss the reasons (trade strategy) behind those trades with fee-base clients in a different private chat room that's designated only for fee-base clients or discuss the strategies with fee-base clients on my Skype contact list.

Also, posted below are direct links to information about my price action trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis). I'm primarily a day trader because it suits my personal lifestyle but I do occasionally swing trade and position trade. Simply, my trade method is applicable for position trading, swing trading and day trading.

Image ##TheStrategyLab Chat Room is free. Members and I use the chat room to post WRB Analysis commentary, real-time trades and to post anything else related to trading. The chat room helps me tremendously in my own trading because I use it to document (journal) general volatility analysis involving WRB Analysis so that I can easily review at a later date my thoughts as I interacted with the markets...info I can not get from my broker statements. Also, this is not a signal calling chat room where a head trader tells you when to buy or sell and I do not have the time/energy/resources to manage a signal calling chat room. Access instructions for chat room @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=164

Image Price Action Analysis via WRB Analysis Tutorials @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=119&t=718

Image Trade Signal Strategies via Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our price action trade strategies with support (answering your questions) prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Image Trading Plan Daily Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=250&t=2561

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Market Context Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, CNNMoney, Reuters and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED/ECB/BOE/IMF actions or any important global economic events (e.g. Eurozone, MarketWatch.com) that had an impact on today's price action in many trading instruments I monitor during the trading day. Simply, I'm a strong believer that key market events causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility resulting in trade opportunities (swing points and strong continuation price actions) that reach profit targets. Thus, I pay attention to these key market events, intermarket analysis (e.g. Forex EurUsd, EuroFX 6E futures, Gold GC futures, Light Crude Oil (WTI) CL & Brent Oil futures, Eurex DAX futures, Euronext FTSE100 futures, Emini ES futures, Emini TF futures, Treasury ZB futures and U.S. Dollar Index futures) while using WRB Analysis from one trade to the next trade to give me the market context for price action trading before the appearance of my technical analysis trade signals. Therefore, I maintain these archives to allow me to understand what was happening on any given trading day in the past involving key market events to help better understand my trade decisions (day trading, swing trading, position trading)...something I can not get from my broker statements alone. Further, most financial websites remove (delete) their archives after a few years to make room for new content. Therefore, I maintain my own archives of the news content so that I have it available for me when financial websites no longer archives their content.

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click on the above image to view today's price action of key markets

4:20 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The stock market ended the Thursday session on a modestly higher note despite a cautious start. The S&P 500 added 0.2%, ending at a fresh record at 2,052.75 while the Nasdaq Composite (+0.6%) and Russell 2000 (+1.1%) outperformed.

Equities faced some pressure at the start after disappointing data from overseas led to profit taking in Europe. Specifically, China's HSBC Manufacturing PMI came in at 50.0, which represents the difference between expansion and contraction, while Japan reported a slim downtick to 52.1 from 52.4. As for the eurozone, Manufacturing PMI slipped to 50.4 from 50.6 and Services PMI fell to 51.3 from 52.3.

The key indices began inching away from their lows right after the open and the cautious sentiment evaporated in a hurry after better than expected Existing Home Sales (5.26 million; Briefing.com consensus 5.17 million), Leading Indicators (0.9%; consensus 0.6%), and Philadelphia Fed Survey (40.8; expected 18.3) crossed the wires at 10:00 ET.

Thanks to the rebound, the S&P 500 marked its session high two hours after the start, but was unable to build on its gain. Instead, the index maintained a five-point range into the afternoon to end with a slim gain. However, conviction in the advance was not very strong with fewer than 650 million shares changing hands at the NYSE floor.

Meanwhile, the tech-heavy Nasdaq outperformed, turning its week-to-date loss to a gain of 0.6%. Shares of Apple (AAPL 116.31, +1.64) were a major source of strength, climbing 1.4%. Other large cap technology (+0.6%) components were not nearly as strong as the largest sector-and Nasdaq-member, but chipmakers picked up the slack. The PHLX Semiconductor Index jumped 0.9% with Intel (INTC 35.95, +1.60) surging 4.7% after providing revenue guidance and boosting its annual dividend to 96 cents.

Interestingly, the strength among high-beta chipmakers and small cap stocks was not met with gains in the biotech space. The iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 294.02, -0.19) shed 0.1% after failing to hold its intraday gain. As for health care (-0.4%), the largest countercyclical group tried to turn positive in the morning, but that effort was rebuffed. Similarly, the remaining countercyclical sectors ended in the red.

Turning back to the cyclical side, the energy sector (+1.1%) settled in the lead with help from crude oil, which spiked 1.8% to $75.82.bbl.

Elsewhere, the consumer discretionary sector (+0.4%) outperformed thanks to retailers after Best Buy (BBY 38.02, +2.48), Dollar Tree (DLTR 65.87, +3.24), Williams-Sonoma (WSM 75.22, +5.80), and L Brands (LB 80.08, +2.40) reported better than expected results. The four gained between 3.1% and 8.4% while the SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT 92.56, +1.52) advanced 1.7%.

Treasuries spent the day in the green, but ended near the bottom of the intraday range, sending the 10-yr yield lower by three basis points to 2.33%.

Participation was on the light side with fewer than 650 million shares changing hands at the NYSE.

Investors received several data points, including Initial Claims, CPI, Existing Home Sales, Philly Fed Survey, and Leading Indicators:

Weekly initial claims decreased to 291,000 from an upwardly revised 293,000 (from 290,000), while the Briefing.com consensus expected a decline to 285,000
Over the past few months, the initial claims level has stabilized below 300,000, and week-to-week volatility has slowed. Trends continue to point toward low layoff activity
Continuing claims fell to 2.330 million from an upwardly revised 2.403 million, representing the lowest level since December 2012
The CPI report was unchanged in October (Briefing.com consensus -0.1%) while Core CPI ticked up 0.2% (consensus 0.1%)
The increase in core prices in October was the largest gain since prices rose 0.3% in May, but year-over-year price growth remains benign at 1.8%
Existing home sales increased to 5.26 million SAAR in October from an upwardly revised 5.18 million (from 5.17 million) while the Briefing.com consensus pegged sales at 5.17 million
Sales increased 2.6% year-over-year, which was the first gain on that basis since last October. It was also the most homes sold since September 2013
The underlying conditions remain positive for the housing industry. A sharp drop in mortgage rates and strong improvements in the labor market have made housing more affordable
The Philadelphia Fed's Business Outlook spiked to 40.8 in November from 20.7 while the Briefing.com consensus expected a decline to 18.3
Business activities in the Philadelphia region reached their highest point since December 1993. A total of 49% of firms saw business activities improve in November as opposed to only 9% that saw decreased activity
The Shipments Index rose to 31.9 in November from 16.6 in October. The gain in production was predicated on a spike in new orders (35.7 from 17.3)
The Leading Indicators report for October was up 0.9%, while the Briefing.com consensus expected a reading of 0.6%. That followed a revised 0.7% increase in September (from 0.8%)

There is no economic data of note on tomorrow's schedule.

Nasdaq Composite +12.5% YTD
S&P 500 +11.0% YTD
Dow Jones Industrial Average +6.9% YTD
Russell 2000 +0.6% YTD

3:35 pm: [BRIEFING.COM]

Natural gas futures rallied today 6% off of today's low of $4.25/MMBtu, rising back up to $4.50/MMBtu.
At the end of the day's session, Dec nat gas gained 2.5% to $4.49/MMBtu
Jan crude oil rose as high as $75.90/barrel, but pulled back a little to close 1.8% higher to $75.82/barrel
Dec gold fell 0.3% to $1190.70/oz, while Dec silver lost 1% to $16.45/oz.
Dec copper remained in the red all day and ended at $3.02/lb, down 1%.

3:00 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 trades higher by 0.1% with one hour remaining in the trading day. The index made a 12-point move off its opening low during the first 90 minutes of action, but the remainder of the session has been a snoozer, keeping the benchmark index within a four-point bound.

Five of six cyclical sectors have held gains for the bulk of the session while the financial sector has spent the entire afternoon just below its flat line.

Treasuries have inched up from their lows, but like equities, the 10-yr note has not moved much in recent action. The benchmark yield is lower by three basis points at 2.33%.

2:30 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] Recent action saw the S&P 500 (+0.2%) inch back to its best level of the day. However, the index continues respecting a narrow range that has been in place since 10:30 ET.

The energy sector (+1.0%) remains in the lead with continued support from crude oil, which has extended its advance to 1.9% at $75.90/bbl. On the flip side, the health care sector (-0.3%) has been unable to rally even though biotechnology trades in the green with the iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 294.56, +0.36) up 0.1%.

1:55 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] Equity indices continue drifting near their best levels of the day with the Russell 2000 (+0.8%) maintaining the lead. Despite today's strength, the index remains lower by 0.6% from the week while the S&P 500 (+0.1%) has extended its weekly advance to 0.6%.

Barring a Friday swoon, the benchmark index will log its fifth consecutive weekly advance. The index has not looked back since hitting a six-month low in the middle of October.

Eight of ten sectors are on track to end the week in the green with materials (+1.4%) and utilities (+1.3%) in the lead. On the downside, the telecom sector has given up 1.9% this week while financials are flat since last Friday.

1:35 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The major averages continue to sit in positive territory, with the S&P 500 (+0.1%), Nasdaq (+0.5%), and Dow Jones (+0.10%). After opening lower following weak overseas data, US markets jumped into positive territory following strong numbers from the Philadelphia Fed (40.8 vs. 18.3 consensus), October Leading Indicators (0.9% vs. +0.6% consensus), & strong Existing Homes Sales data from October that also topped expectations.

Consumer Discretionary stocks (+0.5%) continue outperforming on the day following strong earnings from larger retailers Best Buy (BBY), Williams Sonoma (WSM), & Kirklands (KIRK). Telecoms are again lower and the leading sector in the red today (-0.5%).

In equities, shares of Riverbed (RVBD) shortly spiked on reports the company is seeing interest from PE firms.

Investors will be on the lookout for tone and any language out of the Fed's Mester as she speaks on Forward Guidance and Communications in U.S. Monetary Policy in London at 13:30 ET

1:00 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The major averages sit near their highs at midday with the S&P 500 (+0.1%) trading behind the Nasdaq (+0.5%) and Russell 2000 (+0.7%). The current standing masks an early turnaround that helped the S&P 500 recover more than ten points off its opening low.

Equities were pressured at the start after China, Japan, and the eurozone reported disappointing PMI readings. China's HSBC Manufacturing PMI came in at 50.0, which represents the difference between expansion and contraction while Japan reported a slim downtick from 52.4 to 52.1. As for the eurozone, Manufacturing PMI slipped to 50.4 from 50.6 and Services PMI fell to 51.3 from 52.3.

Although the disappointing data weighed early, sentiment turned after better than expected Existing Home Sales (5.26 million; Briefing.com consensus 5.17 million), Leading Indicators (0.9%; consensus 0.6%), and Philadelphia Fed Survey (40.8; expected 18.3) crossed the wires.

The ensuing rally was fueled by cyclical sectors, including the consumer discretionary space (+0.5%), which has been boosted by retailers from across the industry spectrum. The SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT 92.56, +1.52) has spiked 1.7% after Best Buy (BBY 37.97, +2.43), Dollar Tree (DLTR 65.73, +3.10), Williams-Sonoma (WSM 76.52, +7.10), and L Brands (LB 79.23, +1.55) reported better than expected results.

Elsewhere, the energy sector (+0.6%) holds the lead amid a rebound in crude oil, which is higher by 1.1% at $75.29/bbl. The energy component has been able to advance despite a slim uptick in the Dollar Index (87.70, +0.05).

Also of note, the Nasdaq has spent the day ahead of the benchmark index with help from its largest component-Apple (AAPL 116.45, +1.78)-and chipmakers. Apple has jumped 1.6% while the PHLX Semiconductor Index is higher by 1.0%.

On the downside, the financial sector (-0.1%) remains pressured amid relative weakness in JPMorgan Chase (JPM 59.79, -0.82) and Morgan Stanley (MS 35.25, -0.23) after the two-and Goldman Sachs (GS 189.02, -0.17)-were named in a Senate investigation concerned with manipulation in the commodity market.

Treasuries have retreated from their morning highs, but they remain in the green with the 10-yr yield down two basis points at 2.34%.

Participants received several data points, including Initial Claims, CPI, Existing Home Sales, Philly Fed Survey, and Leading Indicators:

Weekly initial claims decreased to 291,000 from an upwardly revised 293,000 (from 290,000), while the Briefing.com consensus expected a decline to 285,000
Over the past few months, the initial claims level has stabilized below 300,000, and week-to-week volatility has slowed. Trends continue to point toward low layoff activity
Continuing claims fell to 2.330 million from an upwardly revised 2.403 million, representing the lowest level since December 2012
The CPI report was unchanged in October (Briefing.com consensus -0.1%) while Core CPI ticked up 0.2% (consensus 0.1%)
The increase in core prices in October was the largest gain since prices rose 0.3% in May, but year-over-year price growth remains benign at 1.8%
Existing home sales increased to 5.26 million SAAR in October from an upwardly revised 5.18 million (from 5.17 million) while the Briefing.com consensus pegged sales at 5.17 million
Sales increased 2.6% year-over-year, which was the first gain on that basis since last October. It was also the most homes sold since September 2013
The underlying conditions remain positive for the housing industry. A sharp drop in mortgage rates and strong improvements in the labor market have made housing more affordable
The Philadelphia Fed's Business Outlook spiked to 40.8 in November from 20.7 while the Briefing.com consensus expected a decline to 18.3
Business activities in the Philadelphia region reached their highest point since December 1993. A total of 49% of firms saw business activities improve in November as opposed to only 9% that saw decreased activity
The Shipments Index rose to 31.9 in November from 16.6 in October. The gain in production was predicated on a spike in new orders (35.7 from 17.3)
The Leading Indicators report for October was up 0.9%, while the Briefing.com consensus expected a reading of 0.6%. That followed a revised 0.7% increase in September (from 0.8%)

12:30 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The major averages remain near their highs with the Russell 2000 (+0.7%) holding the lead. Equity indices spent the first two hours of the session in a steady climb off their opening lows, but that run has morphed into a trot with the S&P 500 (+0.2%) trading in a two-point range since 11:30 ET.

Cyclical sectors have done the bulk of the heavy lifting, but financials (-0.1%) have yet to join the rally. JPMorgan Chase (JPM 59.98, -0.62) and Morgan Stanley (MS 35.30, -0.18) weigh after the two-and Goldman Sachs (GS 189.22, +0.03)-were named in a Senate investigation concerned with manipulation in the commodity market.

Shares of JPM and MS hold respective losses of 1.1% and 0.5% while Goldman Sachs has reclaimed its opening loss.

11:55 am: [BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 trades higher by 0.2% while the Nasdaq (+0.5%) outperforms.

The tech-heavy index has been able to overtake the benchmark average with significant help from its top-weighted component. Shares of Apple (AAPL 116.62, +1.95) trade higher by 1.7% and their strength has masked weakness among other large sector components like Google (GOOGL 542.51, -4.69), Qualcomm (QCOM 70.06, -0.41), and Hewlett-Packard (HPQ 37.04, -0.13).

However, Apple is not the only source of strength among tech names as chipmakers hover near their highs with the PHLX Semiconductor Index up 0.6%. Including today's advance, the index is higher by 1.3% for the week versus a 0.7% gain for the S&P 500.

11:30 am: [BRIEFING.COM] Equity indices have continued their rally with the S&P 500 now up 0.2%. As mentioned earlier, cyclical sectors have paced the turnaround, but countercyclical groups have also moved off their worst levels of the day.

The energy sector (+0.8%) leads while the consumer discretionary space (+0.5%) follows a bit behind. Retailers have made a significant contribution to the strength after Best Buy (BBY 38.28, +2.74), Dollar Tree (DLTR 65.95, +3.32), Williams-Sonoma (WSM 76.14, +6.72), and L Brands (LB 79.04, +1.36) reported better than expected results. The four names are up between 1.7% and 9.6% while the SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT 92.45, +1.41) has spiked 1.6%.

Despite the outperformance of discretionary retailers, the consumer staples sector (-0.3%) remains near the bottom of the leaderboard.

10:55 am: [BRIEFING.COM] The major averages have recovered from their early lows with the Russell 2000 (+0.6%) setting the pace. The key indices began inching up from their lows shortly after the start, but were sent into overdrive after better than expected Existing Home Sales (5.26 million; Briefing.com consensus 5.17 million), Leading Indicators (0.9%; consensus 0.6%), and Philadelphia Fed Survey (40.8; expected 18.3) crossed the wires.

The energy sector has led since the open and is now higher by 1.0% while crude sports a comparable increase ($75.27/bbl, +0.77). Energy notwithstanding, four other cyclical groups trade in the green while financials (-0.1%) remain in negative territory.

Elsewhere, the four countercyclical sectors continue facing pressure. Most notably, the heavily-weighted health care sector trades lower by 0.3% while biotechnology has recovered from its early low. The iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 294.11, -0.10) hovers just below its flat line.

10:35 am: [BRIEFING.COM]

Natural gas futures spiked to a new session high following inventory data, which showed a draw of 17 bcf
Crude oil has been climbing today and just hit a new HoD in recent trade
Dec nat gas is now +2.4% at $4.48/MMBtu, while Dec crude oil is+1.3% at $75.44/barrel
Dec gold is currently -0.4% at $1189.30/oz, Dec silver is -1% at $16.14/oz
Dec copper fell as much as $3.00 and has come back a little.. now -0.5% at $3.03/lb

10:05 am: [BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 has clawed back to its flat line.

Just reported, existing home sales hit an annualized rate of 5.26 million units in October, while the Briefing.com consensus expected a reading of 5.17 million. The pace for October was up from the prior month's revised rate of 5.18 million units (from 5.17 million).

The Leading Indicators report for October was up 0.9%, while the Briefing.com consensus expected a reading of 0.6%. That followed a revised 0.7% increase in September (from 0.8%).

The Philadelphia Fed Survey for November surged to 40.8 from 20.7. Economists polled by Briefing.com had expected that the Survey would slip to 18.3.

9:40 am: [BRIEFING.COM] As expected, the major averages began the session amid broad weakness. The Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 are all down near 0.4% while the Russell 2000 (-0.2%) trades a bit ahead for the time being.

Nine of ten sectors display early losses with materials (-0.6%) and industrials (-0.6%) pacing the decline. The top-weighted technology (-0.4%) sector trades in-line with the broader market with chipmakers under pressure. The PHLX Semiconductor Index is lower by 0.6%.

On the upside, the energy sector (+0.2%) sports a modest gain amid an increase in crude prices. The energy component is higher by 0.7% at $74.98/bbl.

Treasuries are on their highs with the 10-yr yield down five basis points at 2.31%.

October Existing Home Sales (consensus 5.17 million), October Leading Indicators (expected 0.6%), and the Philadelphia Fed Survey for November (consensus 18.0) will be relayed at 10:00 ET.

9:13 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -10.10. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -19.30. The stock market is on track for a lower open with S&P 500 futures trading ten points below fair value. Futures have been confined to negative territory throughout the night with the early pressure coming after China and Japan reported disappointing Manufacturing PMI readings.

China's HSBC Manufacturing PMI came in at 50.0, which represents the difference between expansion and contraction. HSBC commented on the report, saying disinflationary pressures remained strong. Furthermore, input prices and the employment component receded while output improved, but the pace of export order growth slowed. For its part, Japan reported a slim downtick from 52.4 to 52.1, but investors focused on better than expected export growth (+9.6%; consensus +4.5%).

The overall sentiment did not improve once Europe opened for action. Instead, futures extended their losses after Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (50.4; expected 50.6) and Services PMI (51.3; expected 52.3) missed expectations. Regional markets trade lower across the board with Spain's IBEX (-2.1%) pacing the retreat.

Domestically, Initial Claims slipped to 291,000 from 293,000 (revised from 290,000) while the Continuing Claims level fell to 2.330 million, which represents the lowest reading since December 2000. Separately, the CPI report was unchanged in October (Briefing.com consensus -0.1%) while Core CPI ticked up 0.2% (consensus 0.1%). Treasuries moved lower in reaction, but have retraced that slide, returning to highs. The 10-yr yield is lower by four basis points at 2.32%.

Three more data points remain on the schedule with October Existing Home Sales (consensus 5.17 million), October Leading Indicators (expected 0.6%), and the Philadelphia Fed Survey for November (consensus 18.0) all set to be reported at 10:00 ET.

On the corporate front, Best Buy (BBY 37.30, +1.76) is on track to open higher by 5.0% after beating estimates and boosting its comparable store sales guidance.

9:00 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -8.40. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -15.80. The S&P 500 futures trade eight points below fair value.

Markets ended little changed across much of Asia.

In economic data:
China's HSBC Manufacturing PMI slipped to 50.0 from 50.4 (expected 50.3)
Japan's Manufacturing PMI ticked down to 52.1 from 52.4 (consensus 52.7) while the trade deficit narrowed to JPY980 billion from JPY1.07 trillion (expected deficit of JPY1.02 trillion) as imports increased 2.7% (consensus 3.4%; last 6.2%) and exports jumped 9.6% (expected 3.4%; prior 6.2%)
Hong Kong's CPI eased to 5.2% from 6.6% (consensus 4.0%)
New Zealand's Input PPI fell 1.5% quarter-over-quarter (forecast 0.3%; previous -1.0%) while Output PPI decreased 1.1% (consensus 0.2%; last -0.5%)

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Japan's Nikkei added 0.1% to hold at its best levels in seven years. Financials lagged as Credit Saison and Sony Financial lost 3.3% and 2.4%, respectively.
Hong Kong's Hang Seng shed 0.1%, but held the 200-day average. Hong Kong Exchanges remained under pressure since the Stock Connect Launch, losing another 1.3%.
China's Shanghai Composite recovered its early losses and eked out a slim gain of 0.1%. Haitong Securities jumped 1.8% as brokerage names outperformed amid word Beijing was looking to expedite changes to the IPO process.
India's Sensex ticked up 0.1% to remain near all-time highs. IT Service providers led as Infosys, Wipro, and Tata Consultancy Services all gained close to 1.2%.

Major European indices trade lower across the board with Spain's IBEX (-2.1%) showing the largest decline. Elsewhere, French Finance Minister Michel Sapin commented on the eurozone, saying the UK would be worse off if it left the Union. Mr. Sapin also addressed the prospects of a fine for not meeting EU targets in its budget, saying the fine will not be a major issue

Economic data was plentiful:
Eurozone Manufacturing PMI ticked down to 50.4 from 50.6 (expected 50.9) while Services PMI fell to 51.3 from 52.3 (consensus 52.3)
Great Britain's Retail Sales rose 0.8% month-over-month (consensus 0.4%; prior -0.4%) while the year-over-year reading increased 4.3% (expected 3.8%; last 2.3%). Core Retail Sales rose 0.8% month-over-month (consensus 0.3%; previous -0.3%) while the year-over-year reading jumped 4.6% (forecast 3.9%; last 2.8%). Also of note, CBI Industrial Trends Orders improved to 3 from -6 (expected -3)
Germany's Manufacturing PMI fell to 50.0 from 51.4 (consensus 51.5) while Services PMI eased to 52.1 from 54.4 (expected 54.5). Separately, PPI fell 0.2% month-over-month (expected -0.1%; last 0.0%)
French Manufacturing PMI slipped to 47.6 from 48.5 (consensus 48.9) while Services PMI improved to 48.8 from 48.3 (consensus 48.6)
Italy's Industrial New orders fell 1.5% month-over-month (expected -1.0%; prior 1.5%)
Norway's Q3 GDP expanded 0.5% quarter-over-quarter (consensus 0.4%; last 1.1%)

------

Germany's DAX trades lower by 0.7% with 2/3 of the index in negative territory. Commerzbank and Deutsche Bank are among the weakest performers, down 2.2% and 2.4%, respectively. Adidas outperforms with a solid gain of 1.7%.
Great Britain's FTSE has given up 0.7% with miners fueling the retreat. Anglo American, BHP Billiton, and Rio Tinto are down between 2.8% and 3.3%. Consumer names have held up well with Coca-Cola HBC, and TUI Travel both up near 1.7%.
In France, the CAC trades down 1.2% with Technip leading the slide. The oil services company is lower by 6.8% after CGG rejected its takeover offer.
Spain's IBEX underperforms with a loss of 2.1% amid broad weakness. Construction names Abengoa and Sacyr hold respective losses of 8.5% and 4.1% while financials also lag. Banco Popular, BBVA, and Bankia are down between 2.5% and 5.4%.

8:32 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -9.40. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -17.00. The S&P 500 futures trade nine points below fair value.

The latest weekly initial jobless claims count totaled 291,000 while the Briefing.com consensus expected a reading of 285,000. Today's tally was below the revised prior week count of 293,000 (from 290,000). As for continuing claims, they fell to 2.330 million from 2.403 million.

Total CPI was unchanged (Briefing.com consensus -0.1%) in October while Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, ticked down 0.2% (Briefing.com consensus +0.1%). On a year-over-year basis, total CPI is up 1.7% and core CPI is up 1.8%.

8:01 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -6.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -14.80. U.S. equity futures trade on their lows amid defensive action overseas. The S&P 500 futures hover seven points below fair value after slumping ahead of the European session. Disappointing data has weighed on sentiment after China, Japan, and the eurozone reported disappointing PMI readings.

Treasuries have benefited from the cautious posture, trading on their highs with the 10-yr yield down four basis points at 2.32%.

Weekly Initial Claims (Briefing.com consensus 285K) and October CPI (expected -0.1%) will be released at 8:30 ET while October Existing Home Sales (consensus 5.17 million), October Leading Indicators (expected 0.6%), and the Philadelphia Fed Survey for November (consensus 18.0) will all be reported at 10:00 ET.

In U.S. corporate news of note:

Best Buy (BBY 38.89, +3.35): +9.4% after beating expectations and guiding Q4 comparable store sales ahead of estimates.
JinkoSolar Holding (JKS 22.53, -1.00): -4.3% after beating bottom-line estimates on light revenue.
Keurig Green Mountain (GMCR 151.75, -2.20): -1.4% after beating estimates and guiding Q1 earnings below consensus. The company raised its annualized dividend 15.0% to $1.15 and announced its CFO will step down next year.
Perry Ellis (PERY 24.66, +0.70): +2.9% despite missing earnings and revenue estimates.
Salesforce.com (CRM 58.60, -2.42): -4.0% after its below-consensus guidance and revenue overshadowed a one-cent beat.


Reviewing overnight developments:

Asian markets ended mixed. China's Shanghai Composite +0.1%, Japan's Nikkei +0.1%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng -0.1%.
In economic data:
China's HSBC Manufacturing PMI slipped to 50.0 from 50.4 (expected 50.3)
Japan's Manufacturing PMI ticked down to 52.1 from 52.4 (consensus 52.7) while the trade deficit narrowed to JPY980 billion from JPY1.07 trillion (expected deficit of JPY1.02 trillion) as imports increased 2.7% (consensus 3.4%; last 6.2%) and exports jumped 9.6% (expected 3.4%; prior 6.2%)
Hong Kong's CPI eased to 5.2% from 6.6% (consensus 4.0%)
New Zealand's Input PPI fell 1.5% quarter-over-quarter (forecast 0.3%; previous -1.0%) while Output PPI decreased 1.1% (consensus 0.2%; last -0.5%)
In news:
HSBC commented on China's Manufacturing PMI, saying disinflationary pressures remained strong in the November report. Input prices and the Employment component receded while output improved, but the pace of export order growth slowed.

Major European indices trade lower across the board. Great Britain's FTSE -0.7%, Germany's DAX -0.7%, and France's CAC -1.2%. Elsewhere, Italy's MIB -1.3% and Spain's IBEX -1.9%.
Economic data was plentiful:
Eurozone Manufacturing PMI ticked down to 50.4 from 50.6 (expected 50.9) while Services PMI fell to 51.3 from 52.3 (consensus 52.3)
Great Britain's Retail Sales rose 0.8% month-over-month (consensus 0.4%; prior -0.4%) while the year-over-year reading increased 4.3% (expected 3.8%; last 2.3%). Core Retail Sales rose 0.8% month-over-month (consensus 0.3%; previous -0.3%) while the year-over-year reading jumped 4.6% (forecast 3.9%; last 2.8%). Also of note, CBI Industrial Trends Orders improved to 3 from -6 (expected -3)
Germany's Manufacturing PMI fell to 50.0 from 51.4 (consensus 51.5) while Services PMI eased to 52.1 from 54.4 (expected 54.5). Separately, PPI fell 0.2% month-over-month (expected -0.1%; last 0.0%)
French Manufacturing PMI slipped to 47.6 from 48.5 (consensus 48.9) while Services PMI improved to 48.8 from 48.3 (consensus 48.6)
Italy's Industrial New orders fell 1.5% month-over-month (expected -1.0%; prior 1.5%)
Norway's Q3 GDP expanded 0.5% quarter-over-quarter (consensus 0.4%; last 1.1%)
Among news of note:
French Finance Minister Michel Sapin commented on the Eurozone, saying the UK would be worse off if it left the Union. Mr. Sapin also addressed the prospects of a fine for not meeting EU targets in its budget, saying the fine will not be a major issue.

6:49 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: flat. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -16.00.

6:49 am: [BRIEFING.COM] Nikkei...17,300.86...+12.10...+0.10%. Hang Seng...23,349.64...-23.70...-0.10%.

6:49 am: [BRIEFING.COM] FTSE...6,653.58...-42.60...-0.60%. DAX...9,396.63...-75.60...-0.80%.

Yen Slides to Seven-Year Low on Election Outlook

By Rachel Evans and Andrea Wong Nov 20, 2014 5:08 PM ET

Foreign-exchange volatility reached its highest in more than nine months as forecasts for economic growth and less-stimulative monetary policy in the U.S. diverge from overseas prospects.

The dollar slipped from a five-year high even as a report showed faster-than-forecast U.S. inflation. The yen reached a seven-year low versus the greenback as Japanese lawmakers prepare for early elections in which Prime Minister Shinzo Abe will seek a fresh mandate for economic stimulus. UBS AG said the Swiss National Bank “might have started” buying euros to defend its currency cap. South Africa’s rand and Russia’s ruble rallied.

“Anytime you’ve got the Fed shifting policy, it’s going to increase volatility,” Jennifer Vail, the head of fixed income at in Minneapolis U.S. Bank Wealth Management, said by phone. “We do expect the dollar to trade sideways for the remainder of the year. Once we get to a new year, though, it’s going to be a whole new story.”

JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s global foreign-exchange volatility index reached 8.92 percent, the highest level since Feb. 4, before trading at 8.66 percent as of 5 p.m. in New York.

The yen fell 0.2 percent to 118.21 per dollar, after depreciating as much as 0.9 percent to 118.98, the weakest level since August 2007. Japan’s currency slipped 0.1 percent to 148.24 per euro. The 18-nation euro lost 0.1 percent to $1.2539.

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, which tracks the U.S. currency against 10 major counterparts, fell less than 0.1 percent to 1,097.38, after closing at its highest since April 2009 yesterday.
Ruble Rally

Russia’s ruble advanced the most of the dollar’s 31 major peers, strengthening for a fourth day and heading for its longest rally since June, as oil rose. The currency of the world’s largest petroleum exporter rose 1.5 percent against the dollar to 46.1520.

South Africa’s rand was the second-biggest gainer after the nation’s central bank held its benchmark rate at 5.75 percent. The currency gained 0.9 percent to 10.9633 per dollar.

Switzerland’s central bank may have intervened to defend its currency’s 1.20 per euro cap, UBS strategists including Beat Siegenthaler wrote in e-mailed note today. Swiss National Bank may need to purchase euros on a daily basis and introduce negative deposit rates, the bank said.

The currency traded little changed at 1.20181 per euro.

Yen Slump

The yen has slumped 1.5 percent in the past week, the worst performer of 10 developed-market currencies tracked by Bloomberg Correlation-Weighted Indexes. The Bank of Japan yesterday maintained record stimulus and Abe called an early election the previous day.

Abe’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party will likely win a majority in the vote, Nicholas Smith, a strategist at CLSA Ltd. in Tokyo, wrote in a report dated Nov. 18. The Prime Minister’s three policy “arrows” designed to revive the economy -- monetary easing, fiscal spending and structural reform -- have underpinned the yen’s slide of more than 30 percent during the past two years.

“What we’ve seen through all of November is a steady rise” in dollar-yen, said Niels Christensen, chief currency strategist at Nordea Bank AB in Copenhagen. “Every attempt at a pullback has been met with renewed buying.”

Data earlier this week showed the nation’s gross domestic product unexpectedly shrank an annualized 1.6 percent last quarter, putting the economy in its fourth recession since 2008.

Trading Patterns

Trading patterns suggest gains in dollar-yen might slow. The currency’s 14-day relative strength index against both the dollar and euro remained below the 30 level that indicates to some traders that the currency is poised to strengthen.

The yen’s three-month implied volatility climbed to 12 percent, the highest since September 2013.

“Currency volatility for sure is back,” Alan Ruskin, global head of Group of 10 foreign exchange at Deutsche Bank AG, told Bloomberg Radio today. “There’s weakening, or deliberate weakening, of currencies that’s going on in sort of fairly widespread fashion. I think on the other side though, the Fed seems to be fairly tolerant of a stronger dollar.”

U.S. consumer prices were little changed last month, exceeding the median 0.1 percent drop seen by 84 analysts before the report. A gauge of manufacturing slipped, a separate release showed.

Fed Policy

Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s October meeting yesterday boosted speculation that U.S. policy makers are moving toward higher interest rates.

“Inflation is still not at an elevated level but it’s still on the higher side relative to target for the U.S. and that’s not something we’re seeing in many other countries,” said Ken Dickson, an Edinburgh-based director of foreign exchange at Standard Life Investments Ltd. “It, in some senses, shows the relative strength of the U.S. economy.”

The euro fell as much as 0.4 percent versus the dollar after a Purchasing Managers Index for factories and services output unexpectedly fell to 51.4 in November, the lowest in 16 months, from 52.1 in October, London-based Markit Economics said today. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News predicted an increase to 52.3. A reading above 50 indicates expansion.

To contact the reporters on this story: Rachel Evans in New York at revans43@bloomberg.net; Andrea Wong in New York at awong268@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Dave Liedtka at dliedtka@bloomberg.net Paul Cox, Kenneth Pringle

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney, Reuters and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader Image@ http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader

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