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 Post subject: November 4th Tuesday Trade Results - Profit $1180.00
PostPosted: Tue Nov 04, 2014 11:02 pm 
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Joined: Sat Jan 10, 2009 2:06 pm
Posts: 4335
Location: Canada
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Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
Phone: +1 708 572-4885
Free Chat Room: http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=164
Business Hours: 8am - 5pm est (Mon - Fri)
questions@thestrategylab.com (24/7)
http://twitter.com/wrbtrader (24/7)

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click on the above image to view today's performance verification

Price Action Trade Performance for Today: Emini TF ($TF_F) futures @ $1,180.00 dollars or +11.80 points, Emini ES ($ES_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +00.00 points, Light Crude Oil CL ($CL_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.00 points, Gold GC ($GC_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.00 points and EuroFX 6E ($6E_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.0000 ticks. Total Profit @ $1,180.00 dollars

Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures: 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures: 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup
Light Crude Oil CL (WTI) Futures: 1 tick or 0.01 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup
Gold GC Futures: 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup
EuroFX 6E Futures: 1 tick or 0.0001 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup

Trade Log: All of my trades were posted real-time in the timestamp ##TheStrategyLab chat room. You can read today's price action trading information about my trades (e.g. time, price entry, contract size, price exit) as the trade traversed to its completion. Also, sometimes I'll post real-time trading tips involving WRBs, WRB Hidden GAPs, Key Market Events (KME), Tutorial Chapters 2 & 3, WRB Zones, Reaction Highs/Lows, Contracting Volatility or Expanding Volatility. Its all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=136&t=1927

Quote:
If any of my real-time posted trades are via key concepts discussed in the WRB Analysis free study guide or the Fading Volatility Breakout (FVB) free trade signal strategy...I will discuss the reasons (trade strategy) behind those trades if/when a user of ##TheStrategyLab chat room ask questions about the trades. In contrast, real-time posted trades that are via the Advance WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 4 - 12 or the Volatility Trading Report (VTR) trade signal strategies...I discuss the reasons (trade strategy) behind those trades with fee-base clients in a different private chat room that's designated only for fee-base clients or discuss the strategies with fee-base clients on my Skype contact list.

Also, posted below are direct links to information about my price action trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis). I'm primarily a day trader because it suits my personal lifestyle but I do occasionally swing trade and position trade. Simply, my trade method is applicable for position trading, swing trading and day trading.

Image ##TheStrategyLab Chat Room is free. Members and I use the chat room to post WRB Analysis commentary, real-time trades and to post anything else related to trading. The chat room helps me tremendously in my own trading because I use it to document (journal) general volatility analysis involving WRB Analysis so that I can easily review at a later date my thoughts as I interacted with the markets...info I can not get from my broker statements. Also, this is not a signal calling chat room where a head trader tells you when to buy or sell and I do not have the time/energy/resources to manage a signal calling chat room. Access instructions for chat room @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=164

Image Price Action Analysis via WRB Analysis Tutorials @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=119&t=718

Image Trade Signal Strategies via Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our price action trade strategies with support (answering your questions) prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Image Trading Plan Daily Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=250&t=2561

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Market Context Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, CNNMoney, Reuters and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED/ECB/BOE/IMF actions or any important global economic events (e.g. Eurozone, MarketWatch.com) that had an impact on today's price action in many trading instruments I monitor during the trading day. Simply, I'm a strong believer that key market events causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility resulting in trade opportunities (swing points and strong continuation price actions) that reach profit targets. Thus, I pay attention to these key market events, intermarket analysis (e.g. Forex EurUsd, EuroFX 6E futures, Gold GC futures, Light Crude Oil (WTI) CL & Brent Oil futures, Eurex DAX futures, Euronext FTSE100 futures, Emini ES futures, Emini TF futures, Treasury ZB futures and U.S. Dollar Index futures) while using WRB Analysis from one trade to the next trade to give me the market context for price action trading before the appearance of my technical analysis trade signals. Therefore, I maintain these archives to allow me to understand what was happening on any given trading day in the past involving key market events to help better understand my trade decisions (day trading, swing trading, position trading)...something I can not get from my broker statements alone. Further, most financial websites remove (delete) their archives after a few years to make room for new content. Therefore, I maintain my own archives of the news content so that I have it available for me when financial websites no longer archives their content.

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click on the above image to view today's price action of key markets

4:10 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The major averages ended the Tuesday session on a mixed note. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (+0.1%) spent the bulk of the day near its flat line while the S&P 500 settled lower by 0.3%.

Stocks were pressured from the start, but the early weakness could be traced back to Europe where the European Commission lowered its GDP forecast for the region. The commission now expects 2014 GDP to grow at 0.8% (prior 1.2%) while the forecast for 2015 was lowered to 1.1% from 1.7%.

Also in Europe, a report from Reuters has revealed a potential power struggle at the European Central Bank. According to the report, ECB board members have been unhappy with President Mario Draghi effectively making some policy decisions on his own. Furthermore, the report claimed that up to ten out of 24 ECB members are not in favor of a sovereign QE program.

In all likelihood, the news of strong opposition to quantitative easing is why the euro climbed following the report. The single currency advanced to 1.2550 against the greenback, which contributed to a 0.4% decline in the Dollar Index (87.05, -0.25).

The downtick in the dollar did little to prevent crude oil from falling in response to the lowered growth outlook for the eurozone and lower export prices from Saudi Arabia. The energy component fell 2.0% to $77.13/bbl. For its part, the energy sector (-1.9%) spent the entire session at the bottom of the leaderboard.

The significant weakness in energy kept the market under pressure while other cyclical groups were mixed. Financials (+0.1%), industrials (+0.1%), and technology (unch) displayed relative strength while consumer discretionary (-1.3%) and materials (-1.0%) lagged.

Notably, the discretionary sector suffered from weakness among apparel names after Michael Kors (KORS 71.42, -6.57) issued disappointing comparable store sales guidance, which masked better than expected results. The stock tumbled 8.4%. Foot Locker (FL 53.63, -2.54) also weighed, falling 4.5% after announcing CEO Ken Hicks will be replaced by Richard Johnson. Homebuilders also pressured the sector with the iShares Dow Jones US Home Construction ETF (ITB 23.92, -0.26) ending lower by 1.1%.

Elsewhere, the industrial sector ended ahead of other cyclical groups thanks to gains among transport stocks. The Dow Jones Transportation Average added 0.4% with airlines leading the way after Delta Air Lines (DAL 42.32, +1.71) reported strong October metrics. However, the sector could not pull away from its flat line as growth concerns weighed on machinery stocks like Caterpillar (CAT 98.61, -1.61) and Joy Global (JOY 52.00, -0.31).

On the upside, the consumer staples sector (+0.5%) ended in the lead with help from upbeat earnings reported by Archer-Daniels Midland (ADM 49.54, +2.29). The health care sector (+0.1%) also finished in the green while telecom services (-0.2%) and utilities (-0.6%) registered losses.

Treasuries held intraday gains, but the 10-yr note returned to unchanged by the end of the session (2.33%). The long bond, meanwhile, ended in the green to lower its yield two basis points to 3.05%.

Participation was ahead of average with roughly 810 million shares changing hands at the NYSE floor.

Economic data was limited to the trade deficit and factory orders:

The September trade deficit widened to $43.00 billion from a downwardly revised $40.00 billion (from $40.10 billion) while the Briefing.com consensus expected the deficit to come in at $40.20 billion
According to the advance estimate of Q3 2014 GDP, the BEA assumed that the trade deficit narrowed to roughly $38 billion in September. The upward surprise should result in a downward revision to third quarter GDP in the second estimate
The goods deficit increased by $2.40 billion in September to $62.70 billion while the services surplus fell to $19.60 billion from $20.20 billion
Manufacturing orders declined 0.6% in September after falling an upwardly revised 10.0% (from -10.1%), while the Briefing.com consensus expected a decline of 0.5%
Durable orders fell 1.1% in September after declining 18.3% in August. That was a slightly stronger result than the 1.3% decline reported in the advance durable goods report
Much of the decline in durable goods demand resulted from a 14.7% decline in aircraft orders. Excluding transportation, durable goods orders slipped 0.1% in September

Tomorrow, the weekly MBA Mortgage Index will be released at 7:00 ET while the October ADP Employment Change report (Briefing.com consensus 220K) will cross the wires at 8:15 ET. The day's data will be topped off with the 10:00 ET release of the ISM Services Index for October (consensus 58.0).

Nasdaq Composite +10.7% YTD
S&P 500 +8.9% YTD
Dow Jones Industrial Average +4.9% YTD
Russell 2000 +0.1% YTD

3:35 pm: [BRIEFING.COM]

WTI crude dropped to a three year low after Saudi Arabia lowered prices for exports to US customers amid speculation that stockpiles rose last week.
Crude hit its LoD of 75.84 in early morning GLOBEX trading and futures have since been range-bound around ~$76-77/barrel.
Dec crude oil finished the day down 2% at $77.13/barrel
Natural gas rallied higher today on a recent colder than usual weather forecast, ending the day +2% a $4.13/MMBtu
Dec gold fell 0.2% to $1167.80, while Dec silver lost -1.2% to $16/oz
Copper held $3/lb and ended down 1.6% at $3.02/lb

3:00 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 trades lower by 0.3% with one hour remaining in the session. The benchmark index slumped at the start due to weakness in several cyclical sectors. However, the relative strength of large groups like technology (unch), health care (-0.1%), industrials (unch), and consumer staples (+0.6%) has helped the market climb off its morning low.

Market breadth continues showing a downward bias with more than 1.7 decliners for each advancer at the NYSE.

2:30 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 trades lower by 0.3% with seven sectors in the red.

Investors received just two economic data points today, but neither the September trade deficit ($43.00 billion) nor the Factory Orders report for September (-0.6%) sparked a market-wide reaction.

Tomorrow will feature the latest MBA Mortgage Index and the ISM Services report for October (Briefing.com consensus 58.0), but investors are more likely to respond to the ADP Employment Change report (consensus 220K), which will give an early look at hiring trends in October ahead of Friday's Nonfarm Payrolls report (consensus 235K).

2:05 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] Equity indices remain near their recent levels as the quiet afternoon continues. Small-cap stocks have underperformed from the start of the session and that is still the case with the Russell 2000 trading lower by 0.4%.

Elsewhere, the Dow (+0.2%) has approached its early high with 21 of its 30 components holding gains. Seven index members are now up at least 1.0% or more while three others are down in excess of 1.0%. Caterpillar (CAT 98.46, -1.76) is the weakest performer, down 1.8%, while Disney (DIS 90.24, -1.47) and JPMorgan Chase (JPM 60.02, -0.86) hold losses close to 1.5%.

Also of note, Treasuries have surrendered their gains with the 10-yr yield returning to unchanged (2.33%).

1:30 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (-0.5%) continues hovering near its rebound high with just three sectors trading in the green.

The consumer staples sector (+0.4%) has shown strength since the opening bell while another countercyclical group-telecom services-has spent the bulk of the day near its flat line. Elsewhere among defensively-oriented sectors, utilities (-0.6%) lag while health care (-0.1%) has been able to stay ahead of the market even though biotechnology has been weak. The iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 292.97, -3.34) is lower by 1.1%.

With stocks remaining in negative territory, the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX 15.28, +0.55) is higher by 3.7%.

12:55 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The major averages hold midday losses with the Nasdaq Composite (-0.5%) trailing the S&P 500 (-0.3%). Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (+0.1%) has outperformed through the first half of the session.

Equities have faced selling pressure from the start after index futures retreated overnight. The weakness in futures occurred after the European Commission lowered its GDP forecast for the region. The commission now expects 2014 GDP to grow at 0.8% (prior 1.2%) while the forecast for 2015 was lowered to 1.1% from 1.7%.

Also in Europe, a report from Reuters has revealed a potential power struggle at the European Central Bank. According to the report, ECB board members have been unhappy with President Mario Draghi effectively making some policy decisions on his own.

Interestingly, the euro has rallied despite these developments, thus weighing on the Dollar Index (87.04, -0.27), which is lower by 0.3%. Furthermore, the growth concerns have pressured crude oil, sending the energy component lower by 2.5% to $76.80/bbl.

Fittingly, the energy sector (-2.1%) has lagged from the start, while another cyclical group-consumer discretionary (-1.3%)-has also factored into the weakness. Discretionary shares have retreated after Michael Kors (KORS 71.67, -6.31) issued cautious comparable store sales guidance, which overshadowed better than expected results. Homebuilders have also contributed to the sector's woes with the iShares Dow Jones US Home Construction ETF (ITB 23.91, -0.27) trading lower by 1.1%.

Meanwhile, most of the remaining cyclical sectors trade a bit ahead of the broader market, but the industrial sector (+0.2%) represents the lone advancer on the cyclical side. Transport stocks have underpinned the space after Delta Air Lines (DAL 42.05, +1.44) reported strong October metrics. The stock has added 3.5% while the Dow Jones Transportation Average trades up 0.7%.

Treasuries hold modest gains with the 10-yr yield down one basis point at 2.32%.

Economic data was limited to the trade deficit and factory orders:

The September trade deficit widened to $43.00 billion from a downwardly revised $40.00 billion (from $40.10 billion) while the Briefing.com consensus expected the deficit to come in at $40.20 billion
According to the advance estimate of Q3 2014 GDP, the BEA assumed that the trade deficit narrowed to roughly $38 billion in September. The upward surprise should result in a downward revision to third quarter GDP in the second estimate
The goods deficit increased by $2.40 billion in September to $62.70 billion while the services surplus fell to $19.60 billion from $20.20 billion
Manufacturing orders declined 0.6% in September after falling an upwardly revised 10.0% (from -10.1%), while the Briefing.com consensus expected a decline of 0.5%
Durable orders fell 1.1% in September after declining 18.3% in August. That was a slightly stronger result than the 1.3% decline reported in the advance durable goods report
Much of the decline in durable goods demand resulted from a 14.7% decline in aircraft orders. Excluding transportation, durable goods orders slipped 0.1% in September

12:30 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] Recent action saw the major averages climb off their lows with the Dow returning to its unchanged level. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 has narrowed its loss to 0.4%.

Despite the ongoing rebound, five of six cyclical sectors continue showing losses. However, of the five decliners, only three-consumer discretionary (-1.4%), energy (-2.2%), and materials (-1.1%)-trail the broader market while financials (-0.3%) and technology (-0.2%) outperform.

The tech sector has received a measure of support from several large cap components. Cisco Systems (CSCO 24.76, +0.18), Oracle (ORCL 39.09, +0.10), and Facebook (FB 74.41, +0.53) are up between 0.3% and 0.8% while Intel (INTC 34.54, +0.23) has added 0.6% even though the PHLX Semiconductor Index remains down 0.6%.

11:55 am: [BRIEFING.COM] The stock market remains near its low with the S&P 500 down 0.7%.

Eight of ten sectors continue holding losses between 0.4% (telecom services) and 2.4% (energy) while the industrial space has ticked back into the green with help from transport stocks.

The Dow Jones Transportation Average trades up 0.6% with airlines holding the lead. Delta Air Lines (DAL 42.13, +1.52) has spiked 3.7% after reporting strong metrics for October, which has also given a boost to other carriers like JetBlue Airways (JBLU 12.17, +0.43), Southwest Airlines (LUV 36.13, +0.82), and United Continental (UAL 56.04, +1.76). The three names are all up near 3.5%.

Elsewhere among industrials, machinery manufacturers have been pressured by the lowered growth outlook from the eurozone. Caterpillar (CAT 98.46, -1.76) and Joy Global (JOY 51.71, -0.60) hold respective losses of 1.8% and 1.2%.

11:25 am: [BRIEFING.COM] Equity indices have extended their losses. The Nasdaq (-0.8%) and Russell 2000 (-0.8%) lead the decline while the S&P 500 (-0.7%) fares a little better.

The relative weakness among small cap stocks has led to cautious action in other high-beta areas like biotechnology and chipmakers. The iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 292.55, -3.74) is lower by 1.2% while the PHLX Semiconductor Index has surrendered 0.8%. However, health care (-0.4%) and technology (-0.4%) sectors continue trading ahead of the broader market.

On the upside, the consumer staples sector (+0.3%) is the lone advancer with Archer-Daniels Midland (ADM 49.39, +2.14) providing support after beating earnings estimates.

10:55 am: [BRIEFING.COM] The major averages have slipped to new lows for the day with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 now down near 0.6%. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (-0.3%) sits a bit closer to its flat line.

The price-weighted index has been able to hold near its unchanged level thanks to gains in 16 of its 30 components. Procter & Gamble (PG 88.30, +0.92) is the leading index member, up 1.1%, while five members trade with losses in excess of 1.0%. Caterpillar (CAT 98.50, -1.72) has surrendered 1.7% while Chevron (CVX 115.24, -1.54) and ExxonMobil (XOM 94.04, -1.22) are both down near 1.3%. For its part, the energy sector has widened its loss to 2.5%.

Treasuries have returned into the green with the 10-yr yield down two basis points at 2.32%.

10:35 am: [BRIEFING.COM]

Dec crude sold off overnight, extending recent gains. Crude fell as low as $75.84/barrel by around 5:13am EST.
It recovered above $77/barrel this morning, but is currently -2.5% at $76.83/barrel
Natural gas futures have been displaying some strength this morning. It hit a new HoD of $4.11/MMBtu and is currently +1.4% at $4.10/MMBtu
Gold and silver sold off in early morning trade, after a little run higher
Dec gold is now -0.1% at $1168.60/oz, Dec silver -1.3% at $15.99/oz
Dec copper is sitting at its LoD, currently down 2% at $3.00/lb

10:00 am: [BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 remains lower by 0.2%.

The just-released factory orders report for September indicated orders decreased 0.6%, which was worse than the Briefing.com consensus estimate that called for a decrease of 0.5%. The August reading was revised up to -10.0% from -10.1%.

9:40 am: [BRIEFING.COM] The major averages began the session in the red with the Nasdaq Composite (-0.3%) trading right behind the S&P 500 (-0.2%).

Cyclical sectors are responsible for the early weakness with five of six growth-sensitive groups trading in the red. The energy sector (-1.3%) is the weakest performer as crude oil weighs (-2.0% at $77.23/bbl), while the consumer discretionary sector (-0.9%) has also contributed to the opening decline.

Meanwhile, all four countercyclical sectors hover in the green with telecom services (+0.3%) and utilities (+0.3%) trading a bit ahead of consumer staples (+0.2%) and health care (+0.1%).

Treasuries have surrendered their gains, sending the 10-yr yield back to unchanged on the session (2.34%).

The Factory Orders report for September (Briefing.com consensus -0.5%) will cross the wires at 10:00 ET.

9:14 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -3.90. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -11.50. The stock market is on track for a cautious open with futures on the S&P 500 trading four points below fair value. Futures held a slim gain at the start of the European session, but fell to lows shortly thereafter in reaction to the European Commission lowering its GDP forecast for the region. The commission now expects 2014 GDP to grow at 0.8% (prior 1.2%) while the forecast for 2015 was lowered to 1.1% from 1.7%.

The lowered growth outlook was met with a modest rally in the euro and a retreat in the price of crude oil. The energy component has surrendered 1.8% and currently trades at $77.36.

On the corporate front, investors have received a fair dose of quarterly earnings, but the reports have not led to market-wide moves. Alibaba Group (BABA 100.71, -1.09) is indicated to open lower by 1.1% after its first earnings report as a public company revealed in-line earnings on above-consensus revenue. Elsewhere, Michael Kors (KORS 71.85, -6.14) has surrendered 7.8% in pre-market action after its cautious comparable store sales guidance overshadowed better than expected results.

Treasuries hold modest gains with the 10-yr yield down one basis point at 2.32%.

The Factory Orders report for September (Briefing.com consensus -0.5%) will be released at 10:00 ET.

8:58 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -5.60. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -14.80. The S&P 500 futures trade six points below fair value.

Markets ended mixed across Asia. The Reserve Bank of Australia held its key rate unchanged at 2.50% for the 15th consecutive meeting. Elsewhere, discussion about Japan's next sales tax hike continued with Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's advisor Koichi Hamada suggesting the increase should be postponed for about 18 months. Mr. Hamada also voiced his support for additional easing from the Bank of Japan.

Participants received several data points:
Japan's Manufacturing PMI slipped to 52.4 from 52.8 (consensus 52.8)
South Korea's CPI ticked down 0.3% month-over-month (expected -0.1%; previous -0.1%) while the year-over-year reading increased 1.2% (consensus 1.4%; last 1.1%)
Australia's trade deficit widened to AUD2.26 billion from AUD1.01 billion (expected deficit of AUD1.95 billion) as exports rose 1.0% (prior -2.0%) and imports jumped 6.0% (last -3.0%). Separately, Retail Sales rose 1.2% month-over-month (expected 0.4%; prior 0.1%)
Indonesia's Consumer Confidence improved to 120.6 from 119.8

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Japan's Nikkei rallied 2.7% to a seven-year high as traders returned to work following the extended holiday weekend. Real estate names locked in strong gains as Tokyu Fudosan and Heiwa Real Estate surged 7.1% and 6.9%, respectively.
Hong Kong's Hang Seng eased off five-week highs, shedding 0.3%. Sands China fell 3.3% and Galaxy Entertainment lost 2.8% on word Macau gaming revenues tumbled 23% year over year.
China's Shanghai Composite ended flat, holding at its best levels since February 2013. Shanghai Zhenhua Heavy Industry jumped the daily limit, 10%, as Beijing continues its efforts to invest in overseas infrastructure projects.
India's Sensex was closed for holiday.

Major European indices trade in the red with Italy's MIB (-1.1%) leading the retreat. The European Commission has lowered its GDP forecast for the region, calling for 2014 GDP to grow at 0.8% (prior 1.2%). The Commission has also trimmed its 2015 forecast to 1.1% from 1.7%.

Economic data was scarce:
Eurozone PPI ticked up 0.2% month-over-month (expected 0.1%; previous -0.2%) while the year-over-year reading fell 1.4% (consensus -1.5%; last -1.4%)
Great Britain's Construction PMI ticked down to 61.4 from 64.2 (expected 63.5)

------

Germany's DAX is lower by 0.1%. BMW is the weakest performer, down 1.9% while Deutsche Boerse outperforms with a gain of 1.6%.
Great Britain's FTSE is down 0.2% with energy names on the defensive. BP, BG Group, Petrofac, and Tullow Oil are down between 2.0% and 3.6%. Imperial Tobacco is the top performer, up 3.9%.
France's CAC trades down 0.5% amid weakness in growth-sensitive names. ArcelorMittal, Technip, and Total are down between 2.6% and 3.4%.
In Italy, the MIB has given up 1.1%. Oil company Saipem is the biggest laggard, down 3.6%, while financials also underperform. Banca di Milano Scarl, Intesa Sanpaolo, and Banco Popolare are down between 2.4% and 3.1%.

8:31 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -5.90. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -16.30. The S&P 500 futures trade six points below fair value.

The September trade deficit widened to $43.00 billion from $40.00 billion, while the Briefing.com consensus expected the deficit to come in at $40.20 billion.

8:00 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -5.10. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -15.00. U.S. equity futures trade modestly lower amid cautious action overseas. The S&P 500 futures hover five points below fair value after slipping from highs about three hours ago when the European Commission lowered its growth and inflation forecast for this year and the next. Despite the slide, futures remain inside a narrow seven-point range.

The euro rallied on the news and currently holds a slim 10-pip gain against the dollar. Meanwhile, the Dollar Index is lower by 0.2% (87.17, -0.14).

Treasuries hold slim losses with the 10-yr yield down one basis point at 2.32%.

The September Trade Balance report (Briefing.com consensus -$40.20 billion) will be released at 8:30 ET and the Factory Orders report for September (consensus -0.5%) will cross the wires at 10:00 ET.

In U.S. corporate news of note:

Alibaba Group (BABA 100.60, -1.20): -1.2% following in-line earnings on above-consensus revenue.
American International Group (AIG 54.25, +0.45): +0.8% after beating bottom-line estimates and adding $1.5 billion to its share repurchase program.
CVS Health (CVS 89.00, +2.88): +3.3% in reaction to a bottom-line beat.
Herbalife (HLF 47.53, -8.37): -15.0% after missing estimates and guiding below analyst expectations.
Michael Kors (KORS 72.80, -5.19): -6.7% after its cautious comparable store sales guidance overshadowed better than expected results.
Regeneron (REGN 368.00, -27.26): -6.9% after missing on both metrics.

Reviewing overnight developments:

Asian markets ended mixed. Japan's Nikkei +2.7%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng -0.3%, and China's Shanghai Composite ended flat
In economic data:
Japan's Manufacturing PMI slipped to 52.4 from 52.8 (consensus 52.8)
South Korea's CPI ticked down 0.3% month-over-month (expected -0.1%; previous -0.1%) while the year-over-year reading increased 1.2% (consensus 1.4%; last 1.1%)
Australia's trade deficit widened to AUD2.26 billion from AUD1.01 billion (expected deficit of AUD1.95 billion) as exports rose 1.0% (prior -2.0%) and imports jumped 6.0% (last -3.0%). Separately, Retail Sales rose 1.2% month-over-month (expected 0.4%; prior 0.1%)
Indonesia's Consumer Confidence improved to 120.6 from 119.8
In news:
The Reserve Bank of Australia held its key interest rate at 2.5%, as expected.
Discussion about Japan's next sales tax hike continued with Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's advisor Koichi Hamada suggesting the increase should be postponed for about 18 months. Mr. Hamada also voiced his support for additional easing from the Bank of Japan.

Major European indices trade near their flat lines. Germany's DAX +0.1%, Great Britain's FTSE -0.1%, and France's CAC -0.3%. Elsewhere, Italy's MIB -0.6% and Spain's IBEX -0.4%.
Economic data was scarce:
Eurozone PPI ticked up 0.2% month-over-month (expected 0.1%; previous -0.2%) while the year-over-year reading fell 1.4% (consensus -1.5%; last -1.4%)
Great Britain's Construction PMI ticked down to 61.4 from 64.2 (expected 63.5)
Among news of note:
The European Commission has lowered its GDP forecast for the region, calling for 2014 GDP to grow at 0.8% (prior 1.2%). The Commission has also trimmed its 2015 forecast to 1.1% from 1.7%.

6:34 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -5.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -9.00.

6:34 am: [BRIEFING.COM] Nikkei...16,862.47...+448.70...+2.70%. Hang Seng...23,845.66...-70.30...-0.30%.

6:34 am: [BRIEFING.COM] FTSE...6,477.11...-10.40...-0.20%. DAX...9,254.85...+2.80...0.00.

Canadian Dollar Sinks to 5-Year Low on Crude-Oil Selloff

By Cecile Gutscher and Ari Altstedter Nov 4, 2014 5:06 PM ET

Canada’s dollar plummeted to a five-year low as the selloff in crude oil, the country’s largest export, deepened after Saudi Arabia reduced prices to the U.S. in the face of soaring North American output.

The currency dropped for a fifth day versus its U.S. peer, the longest skid since January, as Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz speaking in Ottawa said monetary stimulus is needed to drive the recovery amid considerable slack in the economy. The Canadian dollar pared losses earlier after the nation’s merchandise trade balance swung to an unexpected surplus in September.

Poloz’s comments are “tying into this perfect storm of bearish news for the loonie,” Bipan Rai, director of foreign-exchange strategy at CIBC World Markets Inc., said by phone from Toronto. “Poloz’s statements of late are there to underline that the Bank of Canada’s bias is to remain on hold until well after the Federal Reserve begins hiking.”

The loonie, as the Canadian dollar is known for the image of the aquatic bird on the C$1 coin, declined 0.5 percent to C$1.1408 at 5 p.m. in Toronto after touching C$1.1427, the lowest since July 2009. One loonie buys 87.66 U.S. cents. The currency completed its last five-day streak of losses on Jan. 10.

Canada’s benchmark 10-year government bond dropped one basis point, or 0.01 percentage point, to yield 2.03 percent. The price of the 2.5 percent debt maturing in June 2024 rose 13 cents to C$104.11.

Futures Fall

Oil plunged to the lowest level in three years after Saudi Arabian Oil Co. reduced December differentials for all grades it ships to the U.S., while supplies to Asia and Europe were priced higher, according to an e-mailed statement yesterday. U.S. crude inventories climbed by 1.9 million barrels last week to a four-month high, a Bloomberg News survey shows before government data tomorrow.

Crude-oil futures, the North American benchmark that Canadian crude is priced against, dropped as much as 3.7 percent to $75.84 a barrel in New York, the weakest since October 2011.

Canada’s dollar pared losses after the trade surplus of C$710 million ($623 million) followed a revised deficit of C$463 million in August, Statistics Canada said today in Ottawa. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg forecast a C$300 million deficit, based on the median of 17 responses.

Export Recovery

Poloz, addressing the House of Commons Finance Committee, said the recovery in the export sector has been slower than in previous economic cycles, reflecting in part the closure of plants that has undermined the country’s ability to take advantage of stronger global demand.

“Our judgment is that we have considerable excess capacity and that continued monetary stimulus is needed to close the gap and bring inflation sustainably to target,” Poloz said.

Canada’s dollar has weakened about 10 percent since Poloz took over the central bank in June 2013, in part because he removed language from policy statements about the potential need to raise interest rates. The bank’s benchmark interest rate has been 1 percent since September 2010.

In contrast, Fed policy makers ended their bond-buying program last month on schedule and are debating when to raise their key interest rate, now at zero to 0.25 percent.

“The near-term Canadian dollar outlook has deteriorated materially and the downward trend is too strong to fight,” Camilla Sutton, chief foreign-exchange strategist at Bank of Nova Scotia in Toronto, said in a note to clients.

Canada’s dollar has dropped 1.3 percent versus the greenback in November, headed for a third straight monthly decline.

To contact the reporters on this story: Cecile Gutscher in Toronto at cgutscher@bloomberg.net; Ari Altstedter in Toronto at aaltstedter@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Dave Liedtka at dliedtka@bloomberg.net Kenneth Pringle, Greg Storey

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney, Reuters and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader Image@ http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader

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