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 Post subject: October 9th Thursday Trade Results - Profit $8060.00
PostPosted: Thu Oct 09, 2014 10:43 pm 
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Joined: Sat Jan 10, 2009 1:06 pm
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Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
Phone: +1 708 572-4885
Free Chat Room: http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=164
Business Hours: 8am - 5pm est (Mon - Fri)
questions@thestrategylab.com (24/7)
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click on the above image to view today's performance verification

Price Action Trade Performance for Today: Emini TF ($TF_F) futures @ $8,060.00 dollars or +80.60 points, Emini ES ($ES_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.00 points, Light Crude Oil CL ($CL_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.00 points, Gold GC ($GC_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.00 points and EuroFX 6E ($6E_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.0000 ticks. Total Profit @ $8,060.00 dollars

Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures: 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures: 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup
Light Crude Oil CL (WTI) Futures: 1 tick or 0.01 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup
Gold GC Futures: 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup
EuroFX 6E Futures: 1 tick or 0.0001 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup

In addition, all of my trades were posted real-time in the timestamp ##TheStrategyLab chat room. You can read today's price action trading information about my trades (e.g. time, price entry, contract size, price exit) as the trade traversed to its completion. Also, sometimes I'll post real-time trading tips involving WRBs, WRB Hidden GAPs, Key Market Events (KME), Tutorial Chapters 2 & 3, WRB Zones, Reaction Highs/Lows, Contracting Volatility or Expanding Volatility. Its all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=135&t=1907

Quote:
If any of my real-time posted trades are via key concepts discussed in the WRB Analysis free study guide or the Fading Volatility Breakout (FVB) free trade signal strategy...I will discuss the reasons (trade strategy) behind those trades if/when a user of ##TheStrategyLab chat room ask questions about the trades. In contrast, real-time posted trades that are via the Advance WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 4 - 12 or the Volatility Trading Report (VTR) trade signal strategies...I discuss the reasons (trade strategy) behind those trades with fee-base clients in a different private chat room that's designated only for fee-base clients or discuss the strategies with fee-base clients on my Skype contact list.

Also, posted below are direct links to information about my price action trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis). I'm primarily a day trader because it suits my personal lifestyle but I do occasionally swing trade and position trade. Simply, my trade method is applicable for position trading, swing trading and day trading.

Image ##TheStrategyLab Chat Room is free. Members and I use the chat room to post WRB Analysis commentary, real-time trades and to post anything else related to trading. The chat room helps me tremendously in my own trading because I use it to document (journal) general volatility analysis involving WRB Analysis so that I can easily review at a later date my thoughts as I interacted with the markets...info I can not get from my broker statements. Also, this is not a signal calling chat room where a head trader tells you when to buy or sell and I do not have the time/energy/resources to manage a signal calling chat room. Access instructions for chat room @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=164

Image Price Action Analysis via WRB Analysis Tutorials @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=119&t=718

Image Trade Signal Strategies via Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our price action trade strategies with support (answering your questions) prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Image Trading Plan Daily Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=248&t=2530

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Market Context Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, CNNMoney, Reuters and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED/ECB/BOE/IMF actions or any important global economic events (e.g. Eurozone, MarketWatch.com) that had an impact on today's price action in many trading instruments I monitor during the trading day. Simply, I'm a strong believer that key market events causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility resulting in trade opportunities (swing points and strong continuation price actions) that reach profit targets. Thus, I pay attention to these key market events, intermarket analysis (e.g. Forex EurUsd, EuroFX 6E futures, Gold GC futures, Light Crude Oil (WTI) CL & Brent Oil futures, Eurex DAX futures, Euronext FTSE100 futures, Emini ES futures, Emini TF futures, Treasury ZB futures and U.S. Dollar Index futures) while using WRB Analysis from one trade to the next trade to give me the market context for price action trading before the appearance of my technical analysis trade signals. Therefore, I maintain these archives to allow me to understand what was happening on any given trading day in the past involving key market events to help better understand my trade decisions (day trading, swing trading, position trading)...something I can not get from my broker statements alone. Further, most financial websites remove (delete) their archives after a few years to make room for new content. Therefore, I maintain my own archives of the news content so that I have it available for me when financial websites no longer archives their content.

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click on the above image to view today's price action of key markets

4:15 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The stock market followed Wednesday's sharp rally with an even sharper slide that clipped all ten sectors. The S&P 500 lost 2.1% and slid back below its 100-day moving average (1962.28) while the Russell 2000 tumbled 2.7%.

Equities began the trading day with modest losses, but the energy sector (-3.7%) was a notable laggard from the start once again. That prevented the broader market from turning positive while the relative weakness among most of the remaining cyclical sectors allowed for the selling to feed on itself.

The energy sector registered its largest one-day loss since surrendering 4.0% in April 2013 with crude oil contributing to the weakness. West Texas Intermediate crude plunged 2.4% to $85.22/bbl while Brent crude slipped below the $90.00/bbl level for the first time in more than two years. Following today's slide, WTI crude is down 6.8% since the start of October.

Macroeconomic concerns aside, crude prices were also pressured by the dollar rebounding from three days of losses. The Dollar Index (85.55, +0.25) traded lower overnight but erased that decline in the morning. Strikingly, greenback strength has had little effect on precious metals with gold futures climbing 1.5% to $1224.20/ozt.

The sell-off caused a scramble in search of volatility protection. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX 18.96, +3.85) surged more than 25.0% to its highest level since early February. Treasuries, however, surrendered their overnight gains in the early morning before spending the session near their flat lines. The 10-yr note shed four ticks with its yield rising one basis point to 2.33%.

As mentioned earlier, most cyclical sectors underperformed the broader market, which prevented a sustained rebound from taking hold. The growth concerns weighed on economically-sensitive sectors like consumer discretionary (-2.3%), industrials (-2.3%), and materials (-2.5%), while financials (-2.1%) ended in-line with the S&P 500.

The widespread losses masked an 12.5% dive in the shares of Gap (GPS 36.67, -5.23) after the company reported below-consensus comparable store sales for September and announced the resignation of Chief Executive Officer Glenn Murphy.

Elsewhere, the technology sector (-1.7%) ended ahead of the other cyclical groups. Shares of Apple (AAPL 101.02, +0.22) contributed to the outperformance after activist investor Carl Icahn argued for a larger repurchase program in a letter sent to Chief Executive Officer Tim Cook.

Meanwhile, the four countercyclical sectors displayed some intraday strength, but the consumer staples sector (-0.9%) was the only group to register a loss smaller than 1.6%.

Today's participation was stronger than average with 874 million shares changing hands at the NYSE floor.

Economic data was limited to Initial Claims and Wholesale Inventories:

Weekly initial claims ticked down to 287,000 from a downwardly revised rate of 288,000 (from 287,000), while the Briefing.com consensus expected a reading of 295,000
Once again, the Department of Labor said there were no special factors affecting the reading, suggesting an improvement in labor market conditions
The four-week moving average of 287,750 for initial claims is at its lowest level since February 4, 2006
Wholesale inventories increased 0.7% in August after increasing an upwardly revised 0.3% (from 0.1%) in July, while the Briefing.com consensus expected an increase of 0.3%

Tomorrow, Import/Export Prices for September will be announced at 8:30 ET while the September Treasury Budget (Briefing.com consensus $106 billion) will be released at 14:00 ET.

Nasdaq Composite +4.8% YTD
S&P 500 +4.3% YTD
Dow Jones Industrial Average +0.5% YTD
Russell 2000 -8.3% YTD

3:40 pm: [BRIEFING.COM]

Crude oil and natural gas futures slid lower all day and ended today's session at today's lows
Precious metals and copper rose notably today and largely held its gains
in afternoon trade, gold and silver traded in a tight consolidated pattern
Tomorrow at noon EST, the USDA will release its monthly demand/supply report for grains

3:00 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 trades lower by 2.0% with one hour remaining in the Thursday session. The benchmark index has faced steady pressure since the start with small rebounds followed by renewed selling.

The session has been particularly rough for small cap stocks with the Russell 2000 down 2.2% into the last hour of action. The small-cap index is now down 2.8% since Friday versus a 1.8% decline for the S&P 500.

Today's selling has led participants to increase their demand for volatility protection as evidenced by the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX 18.89, +3.78), which is on track for its highest close since the start of February.

2:30 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (-2.0%) has returned to its session low with few signs of an impending turnaround. Five of six cyclical sectors display losses larger than the S&P 500 while the top-weighted sector-technology (-1.7%)-trades a little ahead of the benchmark index.

To that point, the recent weakness has been most visible among cyclical sectors. Most notably, energy, industrials, and consumer discretionary hold respective October losses of 5.7%, 3.8%, and 2.2%. As a result, all three groups are now lower year to date. Consumer discretionary and industrials are both down near 2.5% since the end of 2013, while the energy sector has surrendered 4.3%.

On the countercyclical side, health care and telecom services hold respective month-to-date losses of 0.7% and 2.0%, while consumer staples and utilities have held up well. The staples sector has added 0.9% and the utilities space is up 2.0% so far in October.

2:00 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] Equity indices have reclaimed a chunk of their losses with the S&P 500 trading ten points above its session low. The energy sector (-3.0%) remains a big drag on the market while the remaining cyclical sectors trade a bit closer to the S&P 500 (-1.7%). However, only the technology sector (-1.5%) trades ahead of the benchmark index, which may keep dip buyers sidelined.

Even though the tech sector outperforms, its top component-Apple (AAPL 100.82, +0.02)-has returned to its flat line after being up near 1.0% earlier.

Interestingly, Treasuries continue holding near their lowest levels of the day with the 10-yr yield at 2.33%.

1:30 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] New session lows were established in the last thirty minutes in what has turned out to be a surprisingly aggressive day of selling. We say surprising because yesterday's key reversal after the FOMC Minutes had many thinking the bulls would regain control of the tape.

That hasn't happened and that has perhaps been the biggest influence on today's market. The quick inclination to sell into yesterday's strength has raised doubts that the buy-the-dip strategy, which has worked so effectively for so long, may no longer be the easy money trade.

Once again, growth concerns are in play today, evidenced by the cyclical sectors, the Russell 2000 (-2.4%), oil prices ($85.82, -1.49), and the Dow Jones Transportation Average (-2.0%) showing some of the biggest losses.

While today's aggressive sell-off is a surprise, it is no surprise to see that the CBOE Volatility Index (18.16, +3.05) has spiked 20% as participants are angling to put on portfolio hedges again.

1:00 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] Equity indices trade on their lows at midday with the S&P 500 down 1.6%. Small caps have endured more aggressive selling pressure that has the Russell 2000 trading lower by 2.2% at this juncture.

The past 24 hours have seen some sharp swings in the market with the benchmark index surging 1.7% following yesterday's FOMC minutes. That move has been all but erased today amid broad-based weakness.

The key indices opened the trading day with modest losses, but could not return to their flat lines due to significant weakness in the energy sector (-3.6%), which has been unable to rebound from its recent slump. The sector is currently on track to register its largest one-day loss since April 2013 with crude oil contributing to the weakness. West Texas Intermediate crude is lower by 1.9% at $85.64/bbl while Brent crude has ticked below the $90.00/bbl level for the first time in more than two years. Including today's losses, WTI crude is down 6.2% since the start of the month and Brent has surrendered 5.0% with global growth concerns factoring into the weakness.

Macroeconomic concerns aside, crude prices have also been pressured by a rising dollar. The Dollar Index traded lower overnight but has been climbing steadily since this morning. The index is higher by 0.4% (85.59, +0.29) after erasing the bulk of yesterday's drop. Strikingly, the dollar strength has had little effect on precious metals with gold futures up 1.5% at $1224.60/ozt.

Generally speaking, today's retreat has had broad-based characteristics with corporate news having little impact on the market. The technology sector (-1.2%) trades a bit ahead of the broader market thanks to a 0.5% gain in Apple (AAPL 101.29, +0.49) after investor Carl Icahn argued for a larger repurchase program in a letter sent to Chief Executive Officer Tim Cook.

Elsewhere, the consumer staples sector (-0.5%) displays the smallest loss with help from PepsiCo (PEP 94.40, +0.46), which has added 0.5% in reaction to its earnings beat and improved guidance for the full year.

Treasuries have erased their overnight gains and now hover near their lows. The 10-yr note is lower by three ticks with its yield up one basis point at 2.33%.

Economic data was limited to Initial Claims and Wholesale Inventories:

Weekly initial claims ticked down to 287,000 from a downwardly revised rate of 288,000 (from 287,000), while the Briefing.com consensus expected a reading of 295,000
Once again, the Department of Labor said there were no special factors affecting the reading, suggesting an improvement in labor market conditions
The four-week moving average of 287,750 for initial claims is at its lowest level since February 4, 2006
Wholesale inventories increased 0.7% in August after increasing an upwardly revised 0.3% (from 0.1%) in July, while the Briefing.com consensus expected an increase of 0.3%

12:30 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] Continued selling pressure has sent the major averages to new lows for the day.

Strikingly, the energy sector (-3.7%) has slid to a fresh low while WTI crude oil has extended its decline to 1.7% (85.79/bbl, -1.52). Meanwhile, Brent crude has slid below the $90.00 level for the first time in more than two years.

On a somewhat related note, the Dollar Index has staged a turnaround from its overnight lows. The Dollar Index (85.57, +0.27) is higher by 0.3% and sits just below its best level of the day. Interestingly, the dollar strength has not stopped precious metals from climbing. Gold futures trade higher by 1.5% at $1224.50/ozt while silver futures have climbed 2.0% to $17.40/ozt.

11:55 am: [BRIEFING.COM] Equity indices have dropped to fresh lows after being unable to extend their recent rebound effort. The S&P 500 is now lower by 1.3% while the Russell 2000 has widened its decline to 2.0%.

Notably, the energy sector (-3.0%), which has lagged since the start, remains under heavy selling pressure while crude oil trades lower by 1.2% at $86.31/bbl. The energy sector is enduring its worst day in more than a year and is now down 4.0% since the end of 2013.

The recent leg down has pressured the consumer staples sector (-0.2%) into the red, while heavily-weighted health care (-1.0%) and technology (-0.9%) have slid deeper into the red.

Elsewhere, the 10-yr note has reclaimed its recent loss and now trades flat with its yield at 2.32%.

11:30 am: [BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (-0.7%) has put together a modest rebound to reclaim about three points off its session low. It appears the move has lured some money out of the fixed income market as the 10-yr note (-3/32) sits on its low with its yield up one basis point at 2.33%. The benchmark note marked a session high just after 8:00 ET and has headed lower since then.

In general, most cyclical sectors continue showing relative weakness, but the technology sector, which accounts for nearly 19.0% of the entire S&P 500, hovers just below its flat line (-0.2%). Similarly, the top-weighted countercyclical group-health care (-0.4%)-trades a bit ahead of the broader market.

While the market has shown some signs of a turnaround, the ability to continue the rebound will likely hinge on the performance of the two influential sectors mentioned above.

11:00 am: [BRIEFING.COM] Equity indices remain under pressure with the S&P 500 (-0.8%) trading on its session low. The early decline has sent the benchmark index back below its 100-day moving average (1962.48) after that level was reclaimed during yesterday's surge.

Cyclical sectors paced yesterday's rally and those same groups are leading today's retreat. High-beta chipmakers trade lower across the board with the PHLX Semiconductor Index down 1.1% to follow yesterday's 2.3% surge. However, the broader technology sector (-0.4%) has been able to stay ahead of the broader market with help from its top-weighted component. Shares of Apple (AAPL 101.67, +0.87) have added 0.9% after investor Carl Icahn argued for a larger repurchase program in a letter sent to Chief Executive Officer Tim Cook.

Outside of technology, the remaining cyclical sectors trail the S&P 500 with energy (-2.2%) widening its October loss to 4.6%.

10:35 am: [BRIEFING.COM]

The dollar index rallied in recent trade, which weighed on the metals space.
However, gold and silver are holding strong gains as the pullback was brief.
Both gold and silver are back near the current highs for the day
Natural gas was trading lower ahead of today's weekly inventory data, but spiked to a new high on the day following the data, which showed a smaller-than-expected build
Nov natural gas is now +0.3% at $3.87/MMBtu
WTI crude oil just hit a new session low in current trade and is now -1% at $86.42/barrel
Dec gold is +1.9% at $1229.10/oz, Sept silver +3.4% at $17.65/oz, Dec copper is +1.6% at $3.05/lb

10:00 am: [BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 has continued its retreat and now trades lower by 0.5% with eight sectors in the red.

Just released, August wholesale inventories rose 0.7%, while the Briefing.com consensus expected an uptick of 0.3%. Today's report followed last month's revised increase of 0.3% (from 0.1%).

9:45 am: [BRIEFING.COM] The major averages have slipped out of the gate with the Russell 2000 (-0.6%) leading the early weakness. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 is lower by 0.3% with eight sectors in the red.

The energy sector has been a notable laggard in recent weeks and that has continued to be the case today. The group trades lower by 1.3% while crude oil holds a loss of 0.7% at $86.73/bbl. Outside of energy, the remaining cyclical sectors display losses of no more than 0.4%.

Meanwhile, the countercyclical side has had a decent showing so far. Health care (-0.2%) and telecom services (-0.1%) hover in the red, while consumer staples (+0.4%), and utilities (+0.1%) display modest gains.

Treasuries remain in the green with the 10-yr yield down one basis point at 2.31%.

9:12 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -6.10. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -10.80. The stock market is on track for a modestly lower open as futures on the S&P 500 hover six points below fair value. Index futures held modest gains in the early morning, but slumped to lows over the past two hours. The move lower coincided with a slide across European indices and has been followed by a modest rebound off the lows.

Interestingly, the slide in equity futures occurred just ahead of an uptick in the Dollar Index (85.25, -0.05), which has returned to its flat line after being down near 0.5% not long ago.

With the Q3 earnings season starting up, participants have been responding to the early reports. Alcoa (AA 16.33, +0.26) is indicated to open higher by 1.6% after beating earnings/revenue estimates and reaffirming the 2014 global aluminum demand growth forecast at 7.0%. On the consumer side, PepsiCo (PEP 94.90, +0.96) is on track to give a boost to the staples sector after beating earnings expectations and improving its guidance for the year. Finally, the discretionary sector is likely to face some weakness among apparel retailers after Gap (GPS 37.40, -4.50) reported below-consensus comparable store sales for September and announced the resignation of Chief Executive Officer Glenn Murphy.

In other corporate news, Apple (AAPL 101.58, +0.79) has spiked to pre-market highs after Carl Icahn sent a letter to CEO Tim Cook, requesting an increase to the company's share repurchase plan.

On the economic front, weekly initial claims ticked down to 287,000 from a downwardly revised rate of 288,000 (from 287,000), while the Briefing.com consensus expected a reading of 295,000. Once again, the Department of Labor said there were no special factors affecting the reading, suggesting an improvement in labor market conditions.

The Wholesale Inventories report for August (consensus 0.3%) will cross the wires at 10:00 ET.

Treasuries have slipped from their highs, but they remain in the green with the 10-yr yield down one basis point at 2.31%.

8:59 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -3.90. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -5.30. The S&P 500 futures trade four points below fair value.

Markets gained across most of Asia after yesterday's FOMC minutes warned of a cooling global economy. The People's Bank of China announced that its liquidity injections for the week totaled CNY26 billion, representing the highest net amount in nearly two months.

In economic data:
Japan's Core Machinery Orders rose 4.7% month-over-month (expected 0.9%; previous 3.5%), while the year-over-year reading fell 3.3% (consensus -5.1%; last 1.1%). Separately, Machine Tool Orders jumped 34.8% year-over-year (prior 35.5%).
Australia's Employment Change came in at -29,700 (expected 20,000; previous 32,100), pushing the Unemployment Rate up to 6.1% from 6.0%, as expected. Also of note, Participation Rate fell to 64.5% from 64.7% (expected 64.8%)

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Japan's Nikkei lost 0.8% to close at its lowest level since the beginning of September. The stronger yen continued to weigh on exporters as Fuji Heavy lost 2.3% and Fanuc gave up 0.9%.
Hong Kong's Hang Seng gained 1.2%, closing at its best level in almost two weeks. Real Estate developers saw solid gains as China Resources Land climbed 3.1% and Sun Hung Kai Properties jumped 2.1%.
China's Shanghai Composite climbed 0.3% to a 19-month high. Shipbuilders were strong with China Shipping Industry rallying the daily limit, 10%, amid continued reform in the industry.
India's Sensex added 0.3% to reclaim its 50-day moving average as shares gained for the first time in four days. Power equipment maker Bharti Heavy Electricals surged 8.4% after securing an INR78 bln order.

Major European indices trade mostly lower while Germany's DAX (+0.5%) outperforms. Elsewhere, The Bank of England made no changes to its policy, keeping the key rate and the purchasing program at their respective 0.5% and GBP375 billion. On a related note, Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne said the British recovery is at a critical juncture with potential headwinds coming from weakness in the eurozone.

Economic data was limited:
Germany's trade surplus narrowed to EUR17.50 billion from EUR22.20 billion (expected surplus of EUR18.50 billion) as exports fell 5.8% (consensus -4.0%; previous 4.8%) and imports dropped 1.3% (forecast 1.0%; last -1.4%)
French trade deficit widened to EUR5.80 billion from EUR5.50 billion (expected deficit of EUR5.50 billion)

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Germany's DAX has narrowed its gain to 0.5% after being up more than 1.5%. Financials weigh with Commerzbank, Deutsche Bank, and Munich Re down between 2.1% and 3.7%. SAP trades higher by 1.2% as it rebounds from yesterday's weakness.
In France, the CAC has given up 0.1%. Bank shares are among the laggards with BNP Paribas, Credit Agricole, and Societe Generale down between 1.1% and 1.5%. Producers of basic materials outperform with ArcelorMittal and Solvay up 0.7% and 1.3%, respectively.
Great Britain's FTSE is lower by 0.2% with discretionary names on the defensive. ITV, Kingfisher, and International Consolidated Airlines display losses between 1.4% and 2.9%. Miners outperform with Antofagasta, Fresnillo, and Randgold Resources up between 1.9% and 7.2%.

8:31 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -3.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -6.00. The S&P 500 futures trade four points below fair value.

The latest weekly initial jobless claims count totaled 287,000, while the Briefing.com consensus expected a reading of 295,000. Today's tally was below the revised prior week count of 288,000 (from 287,000). As for continuing claims, they fell to 2.381 million from 2.402 million.

7:58 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -7.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -15.30. U.S. equity futures trade on their lows after surrendering their slim overnight gains. The S&P 500 futures hover eight points below fair value after showing a five-point gain during the past two hours.

The Dollar Index retreated yesterday after the FOMC minutes suggested the Fed will not rush to implement the first rate hike. The weakness has carried into today with the Dollar Index (85.01, -0.28) backpedaling to levels last seen nearly three weeks ago. The greenback weakness has given a boost to the yen (+50 pips), the euro (+35 pips), and the pound (+50 pips).

Treasuries hold gains with the 10-yr yield down almost four basis points at 2.29%.

Weekly Initial Claims (Briefing.com consensus 295K) will be released at 8:30 ET, while the Wholesale Inventories report for August (consensus 0.3%) will cross the wires at 10:00 ET.

In U.S. corporate news of note:

Alcoa (AA 16.35, +0.28): +1.7% after beating earnings/revenue estimates and reaffirming the 2014 global aluminum demand growth at 7%.
Gap (GPS 37.75, -4.15): -9.9% after reporting below-consensus comparable store sales for September and announcing the resignation of Chief Executive Officer Glenn Murphy.
PepsiCo (PEP 95.52, +1.58): +1.7% in reaction to its earnings beat and improved guidance for the full year.
Ruby Tuesday (RT 7.00, +1.08): +18.2% following its bottom-line beat and an improvement to the low end of its same-restaurant sales guidance.

Reviewing overnight developments:

Asian markets ended mostly higher. China's Shanghai Composite +0.3%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng +1.2%, and Japan's Nikkei -0.8%
In economic data:
Japan's Core Machinery Orders rose 4.7% month-over-month (expected 0.9%; previous 3.5%), while the year-over-year reading fell 3.3% (consensus -5.1%; last 1.1%). Separately, Machine Tool Orders jumped 34.8% year-over-year (prior 35.5%).
Australia's Employment Change came in at -29,700 (expected 20,000; previous 32,100), pushing the Unemployment Rate up to 6.1% from 6.0%, as expected. Also of note, Participation Rate fell to 64.5% from 64.7% (expected 64.8%)
In news:
The People's Bank of China announced that its liquidity injections for the week totaled CNY26 billion, representing the highest net amount in nearly two months

Major European indices trade mostly lower. Germany's DAX +0.2%, Great Britain's FTSE -0.4%, and France's CAC -0.5%. Elsewhere, Italy's MIB -0.8% and Spain's IBEX -0.7%
Economic data was limited:
Germany's trade surplus narrowed to EUR17.50 billion from EUR22.20 billion (expected surplus of EUR18.50 billion) as exports fell 5.8% (consensus -4.0%; previous 4.8%) and imports dropped 1.3% (forecast 1.0%; last -1.4%)
French trade deficit widened to EUR5.80 billion from EUR5.50 billion (expected deficit of EUR5.50 billion)
Among news of note:
The Bank of England made no changes to its policy, keeping the key rate and the purchasing program at their respective 0.5% and GBP375 billion. On a related note, Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne said the British recovery is at a critical juncture with potential headwinds coming from weakness in the eurozone.

6:22 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +5.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +11.00.

6:22 am: [BRIEFING.COM] Nikkei...15,478.93...-117.10...-0.80%. Hang Seng...23,534.53...+271.20...+1.20%.

6:22 am: [BRIEFING.COM] FTSE...6,511.22...+29.10...+0.50%. DAX...9,096.59...+101.70...+1.10%.

VIX Shoots to Eight-Month High in Selloff as Bears Reclaim Edge

By Callie Bost, Oliver Renick and Joseph Ciolli Oct 9, 2014 3:53 PM ET

Squalls turned into stock market storms this week as concerns about the global economy and Federal Reserve send day-to-day swings to the widest in eight months.

Bears were in control today, sending the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index down 2 percent as of 3:51 p.m. in New York, following the biggest rally in the gauge this year. The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index surged as much as 28 percent to 19.38, the highest level since February, after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said there are signs the recovery is losing momentum.

The toll on sentiment is being exacerbated by the nearly unprecedented calm that had enveloped markets for most of the year. Seven days into October, the S&P 500 has posted five single-day moves exceeding 1 percent. This in a market that went without any swings of that size for 62 days in May, June and July, the longest stretch since 1995.

“It definitely has not been a fun ride,” Rick Fier, director of equity trading at Conifer Securities LLC in New York, said by phone. “Volatility coming back into the market is a direct correlation to the tapering ending. This is what it used to be like before the government was in the market.”

European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said there are signs the recovery is losing momentum.

All 10 S&P 500 groups dropped at least 0.9 percent, with energy stocks plunging 3.7 percent to pace losses. The S&P 500 dropped 40.05 points to 1,928.84. The Russell 2000 Index sank 2.5 percent, the most since April. The Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbled 315.67 points, or 1.9 percent, to 16,678.55, trimming its gain this year to less than 1 percent.

Swings Widen

Over the last 15 days, the benchmark gauge for American equities has posted an average daily change of about 0.9 percent, compared with 0.48 percent in 2014 before that. Volume has risen correspondingly, with an average of about 7 billion shares changing hands each day on U.S. markets through yesterday, compared with 6.2 billion the rest of this year.

About $800 billion has been erased from U.S. share values as the S&P 500 slid 3.8 percent from its record high of 2,011.36 on Sept. 18. The decline is the fourth to exceed 3 percent since the start of 2014 and so far the smallest.

Equities tumbled 3.9 percent between July 24 and Aug. 7, almost 4 percent between April 2 and April 11 and 5.8 percent from Jan. 15 to Feb. 3. Each time, the losses were erased within about a month. During those stretches, the volatility index peaked at 17.03 twice, at 17.82 on March 14 and at 21.44, the highest level reached since December 2012, on Feb. 3.

“If it closes around there, it’s a dangerous sign, because we’ll have broken through some resistance,” Donald Selkin, chief market strategist for New York-based National Securities Corp., which oversees about $3 billion, said in a phone interview. “If we don’t hold here, then we could see the next resistance level around 21, which would take us down another couple hundred points.”

Frothy Equities

The biggest swings have come in the last three days, with the S&P 500 dropping 1.5 percent on Oct. 7, rallying 1.8 percent yesterday and tumbling as much as 2.1 percent today. Markets were roiled two days ago when the International Monetary Fund cut its growth forecast and warned of “frothy” equities.

“People are flailing around not knowing what they want,” Patricia Edwards, managing director of investments at US Bank Private Client Reserve in Seattle, said by phone. “We had the IMF saying we need to spend and spend and six different Fed officials speaking as well as Draghi. We’ve got a lot of people opining about things without real proof of which way we’re going.”

Today’s retreat is putting more distance between the S&P 500 and the forecasts of Wall Street equity forecasters. The median projection of 19 strategists tracked by Bloomberg calls for the index to reach 2,050, about 6 percent above the level now. The index is trading below the survey’s lowest predictions for 1,950.

(An earlier version of this story corrected the size of the daily change in the S&P 500 in the sixth paragraph.)

To contact the reporters on this story: Callie Bost in New York at cbost2@bloomberg.net; Oliver Renick in New York at orenick2@bloomberg.net; Joseph Ciolli in New York at jciolli@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Lynn Thomasson at lthomasson@bloomberg.net Chris Nagi, Michael P. Regan

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney, Reuters and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader Image@ http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader

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