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 Post subject: October 1st Wednesday Trade Results - Profit $4580.00
PostPosted: Wed Oct 01, 2014 9:09 pm 
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Joined: Sat Jan 10, 2009 1:06 pm
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Location: Canada
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Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
Phone: +1 708 572-4885
Free Chat Room: http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=164
Business Hours: 8am - 5pm est (Mon - Fri)
questions@thestrategylab.com (24/7)
http://twitter.com/wrbtrader (24/7)

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click on the above image to view today's performance verification

Price Action Trade Performance for Today: Emini TF ($TF_F) futures @ $4,580.00 dollars or +45.80 points, Emini ES ($ES_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.00 points, Light Crude Oil CL ($CL_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.00 points, Gold GC ($GC_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.00 points and EuroFX 6E ($6E_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.0000 ticks. Total Profit @ $4,580.00 dollars

Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures: 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures: 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup
Light Crude Oil CL (WTI) Futures: 1 tick or 0.01 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup
Gold GC Futures: 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup
EuroFX 6E Futures: 1 tick or 0.0001 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup

In addition, all of my trades were posted real-time in the timestamp ##TheStrategyLab chat room. You can read today's price action trading information about my trades (e.g. time, price entry, contract size, price exit) as the trade traversed to its completion. Also, sometimes I'll post real-time trading tips involving WRBs, WRB Hidden GAPs, Key Market Events (KME), Tutorial Chapters 2 & 3, WRB Zones, Reaction Highs/Lows, Contracting Volatility or Expanding Volatility. Its all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=135&t=1901

Quote:
If any of my real-time posted trades are via key concepts discussed in the WRB Analysis free study guide or the Fading Volatility Breakout (FVB) free trade signal strategy...I will discuss the reasons (trade strategy) behind those trades if/when a user of ##TheStrategyLab chat room ask questions about the trades. In contrast, real-time posted trades that are via the Advance WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 4 - 12 or the Volatility Trading Report (VTR) trade signal strategies...I discuss the reasons (trade strategy) behind those trades with fee-base clients in a different private chat room that's designated only for fee-base clients or discuss the strategies with fee-base clients on my Skype contact list.

Also, posted below are direct links to information about my price action trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis). I'm primarily a day trader because it suits my personal lifestyle but I do occasionally swing trade and position trade. Simply, my trade method is applicable for position trading, swing trading and day trading.

Image ##TheStrategyLab Chat Room is free. Members and I use the chat room to post WRB Analysis commentary, real-time trades and to post anything else related to trading. The chat room helps me tremendously in my own trading because I use it to document (journal) general volatility analysis involving WRB Analysis so that I can easily review at a later date my thoughts as I interacted with the markets...info I can not get from my broker statements. Also, this is not a signal calling chat room where a head trader tells you when to buy or sell and I do not have the time/energy/resources to manage a signal calling chat room. Access instructions for chat room @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=164

Image Price Action Analysis via WRB Analysis Tutorials @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=119&t=718

Image Trade Signal Strategies via Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our price action trade strategies with support (answering your questions) prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Image Trading Plan Daily Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=248&t=2530

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Market Context Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, CNNMoney, Reuters and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED/ECB/BOE/IMF actions or any important global economic events (e.g. Eurozone, MarketWatch.com) that had an impact on today's price action in many trading instruments I monitor during the trading day. Simply, I'm a strong believer that key market events causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility resulting in trade opportunities (swing points and strong continuation price actions) that reach profit targets. Thus, I pay attention to these key market events, intermarket analysis (e.g. Forex EurUsd, EuroFX 6E futures, Gold GC futures, Light Crude Oil (WTI) CL & Brent Oil futures, Eurex DAX futures, Euronext FTSE100 futures, Emini ES futures, Emini TF futures, Treasury ZB futures and U.S. Dollar Index futures) while using WRB Analysis from one trade to the next trade to give me the market context for price action trading before the appearance of my technical analysis trade signals. Therefore, I maintain these archives to allow me to understand what was happening on any given trading day in the past involving key market events to help better understand my trade decisions (day trading, swing trading, position trading)...something I can not get from my broker statements alone. Further, most financial websites remove (delete) their archives after a few years to make room for new content. Therefore, I maintain my own archives of the news content so that I have it available for me when financial websites no longer archives their content.

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click on the above image to view today's price action of key markets

U.S. stocks declined sharply on Wednesday, with the fourth quarter starting off on a dour note after the S&P 500's seventh quarterly gain, as investors fretted global concerns, mixed U.S. economic data and earnings ahead.

Benchmark indexes posted their worst beginning to October since 2011 as investors sought safety in U.S. Treasury bonds and gold,with the CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX), a measure of investor uncertainty, rising. The Russell 2000 (^RUT) fell into correction territory, down 10 percent from its July record.

"In the here and now, there are too many global-macro concerns for investors to have confidence," said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at Wunderlich Securities, listing worries about ISIS, Ukraine and Russia, the slowdown in China "and ebola, which is causing things like airline stocks to go down."

"As we sit on the eve of earnings season, and we had a bunch of weaker economic data today, and as you look at continued weakness in Europe, there is concern of does it bleed into earnings. It raises some doubt for investors as to what the earnings picture will look like," said Jim Dunigan, managing executive, investments, at PNC Wealth Management.

"October is a ghostly month anyway," Dunigan added.

"It's hard to get constructive with headlines of airstrikes in different parts of the world, so there are some doubts about what the economic environment looks like, particularly as we end the asset-purchase program," said PNC's Dunigan, referring to the Federal Reserve's bond buys, which are on track to conclude later this month.

Biotech companies involved in developing Ebola drugs rose, with Tekmira Pharmaceuticals (Toronto Stock Exchange: TKM-CA) and Sarepta Therapeutics (SRPT) among those rallying. Carriers including Delta Air Lines (DAL) and JetBlue Airways (JBLU) fell on worries the disease might curb air travel . EBay (EBAY) slid after JPMorgan Chase and Jefferies Group downgraded shares of the online auctioneer.

"Will somebody decide not to go to Dallas? Maybe. I don't see that as a lasting situation," said Dunigan of the U.S. city where the first confirmed U.S. case of Ebola is hospitalized.

The Institute for Supply Management reported its manufacturing index hit 56.6 last month.

A separate report had construction spending dipping 0.8 percent in August.

"At least for today the economic data are a mixed bag; ISM manufacturing and spending could be characterized as weaker than expected," said Hogan.

U.S. private employers created 213,000 jobs last month, with the ADP National Employment Report roughly in line with expectations and coming ahead of Friday's nonfarm payrolls for September.

After a 266-point drop, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (Dow Jones Global Indexes: .DJI) fell 238.19 points, or 1.4 percent, to 16,804.71, with Intel (INTC) leading blue-chip losses that extended to all but one of 30 components.

The S&P 500 (^GSPC) lost 26.13 points, or 1.3 percent, to 1,946.16, with materials knocked the hardest and utilities the sole sector of 10 major industry groups to retain a positive footing.

The Nasdaq (^IXIC) dropped 71.30 points, or 1.5 percent, to 4,422.09.

For every share rising, roughly three declined on the New York Stock Exchange, where 865 million shares traded. Composite volume neared 4.2 billion.

The dollar (Exchange:.DXY) advanced against other global currencies and the yield on the 10-year Treasury note (U.S.:US10Y) fell 10 basis points to 2.387 percent.

Crude-oil futures for November delivery (New York Mercantile Exchange: @CL14X) reversed course to settle down 43 cents at $90.73 a barrel; gold futures for December delivery (CEC:Commodities Exchange Centre: @GC14Z) rose $3.90 to $1,215.50 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

2:05 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] Not much change in the major averages as sellers remain in control with the S&P 500 (-1.3%) trading at a fresh low for the day.

The continued selling has caused the materials sector (-2.3%) to extend its loss past the 2.0% mark, while the remaining cyclical groups display losses between 1.1% (financials) and 1.9% (industrials).

Also of note, crude oil, which was up as much as 2.0% this morning, has trimmed its gain to just 0.3% ($91.45/bbl). Elsewhere among commodities, gold (+0.3% at $1215.00/ozt) and silver (+1.1% at $1215.20/ozt) hold gains, while the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX 21.58, +0.22).

1:25 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The major indices have all slipped to new lows for the session since the top of the hour, maintaining the bearish disposition they have shown for most of the day.

The lone pocket of true strength in the stock market is the utilities sector (+1.2%). No other sector is up at the moment. The relative strength of the utilities sector is rooted in the following:

The drop in long-term rates (10-yr at 2.41%) that is bolstering the sector's appeal as an attractive source of income given the relatively high dividend yields offered in the space
The perspective in the face of weakening foreign data that it is a safe haven with its U.S. exposure; and
The outperformance of Exelon (EXC 35.13, +1.04) which was upgraded to Buy from Hold at ISI Group

Following the utilities sector, the next best-performing sector is the consumer staples sector, which is down "only" 0.6%.

1:00 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] Equity indices hover near their lows at midday with the Nasdaq Composite (-1.3%) showing the largest decline. For its part, the S&P 500 trades lower by 1.0% with nine sectors in the red.

The stock market began today's session on the defensive following a disappointing set of Manufacturing PMI figures from the eurozone. The region-wide reading slipped to 50.3 (expected 50.5) and was driven in part by Germany's decline to 49.9 from 50.3 (consensus 50.3).

The disappointing data from overseas contributed to a lower start, while a noteworthy drop in the Dow Jones Transportation Average (-2.0%) has pressured the industrial sector (-1.5%). At this juncture, 19 of 20 DJTA components display losses with Delta Air Lines (DAL 35.19, -0.96) and Southwest Airlines (LUV 32.77, -1.00) both down near 3.0% amid concerns about the first case of Ebola in the United States.

Elsewhere, the remaining cyclical sectors have not fared much better. Consumer discretionary (-1.0%), materials (-1.7%), and technology (-1.3%) trail the broader market, while energy (-0.7%) and financials (-0.9%) trade a bit ahead.

Notably, the energy sector made a brief appearance in the green, but returned into negative territory when the S&P 500 could not hold its 100-day moving average (1958). Meanwhile, crude oil trades up 0.8% at $91.85/bbl after notching a high just below the $93.00/bbl level.

On the countercyclical side, the utilities sector (+1.2%) has padded its weekly gain to 2.0% with lower interest rates adding a measure of support. The 10-yr note is higher by 23 ticks with its yield down eight basis points at 2.41%.

Economic data included Construction Spending, ISM Index, ADP Employment Survey, and the MBA Mortgage Index:

Construction spending fell 0.8% in August after increasing a downwardly revised 1.2% (from 1.8%) in July, while the Briefing.com consensus expected an increase of 0.5%
Private construction spending fell 0.8% in August, nearly giving back its entire 0.9% increase from July
Public construction spending fell 0.9% in August after increasing 2.1% in July
The ISM Manufacturing Index fell to 56.6 in September from 59.0 in August, while the Briefing.com consensus expected a drop to 58.5
Most of the regional Federal Reserve manufacturing surveys showed solid gains in September, which contrasted with the pullback recorded in the national index
The Backlog of Orders Index contracted, falling from 52.5 in August to 47.0 in September, while the New Orders Index dropped to 60.0 from 66.7
The ADP National Employment Report revealed that employment in the nonfarm private business sector rose 213K in September, while the Briefing.com consensus expected an increase of 202K
The August reading was revised down to 202,000 from 204,000
The weekly MBA Mortgage Index slipped 0.2% to follow last week's decline of 4.1%

12:30 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] Equity indices have returned to their early lows with the S&P 500 (-0.7%) trading within two points of its session low. The benchmark index had tried to string together a rebound, but that effort was rebuffed just above the 100-day average (1958.39) by broad-based weakness.

The energy sector (-0.2%) took part in the recovery attempt, but was pulled back into the red when the S&P 500 reversed toward the lows. As for crude oil, the energy component remains near its best level of the session at $92.63/bbl (+1.6%).

Outside of energy, the financial sector (-0.6%) is the only cyclical group that trades ahead of the broader market at this time.

12:00 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (-0.7%) has taken a step back from its recent rebound high amid continued weakness in heavily-weighted sectors like industrials (-1.2%), technology (-1.0%), and health care (-0.9%).

Interestingly, the Russell 2000 (-0.5%) trades a bit ahead of the S&P 500, but the relative strength among small caps has not led to outperformance from high-beta biotech or chipmaker shares. The iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 270.45, -3.18) and the PHLX Semiconductor Index are both down 1.2%.

Elsewhere, Treasuries have continued their advance with the 10-yr note (+20/32) climbing to a fresh high. The benchmark yield is lower by seven basis points at 2.42%.

11:25 am: [BRIEFING.COM] Equity indices have continued inching up from their lows with help from the utilities sector (+1.2%), which has been on the rise since the start of today's session. The sector has shown relative strength through the first half of the week and is now up 1.9% since last Friday.

Elsewhere, the energy sector (+0.1%) has poked its head into the green after plunging 7.6% in September. Crude oil, which trades up 1.9% at $92.85/bbl, has contributed to today's bounce despite another uptick in the Dollar Index (86.05, +0.11).

Meanwhile, the other commodity-related sector-materials-underperforms with a loss of 1.1%. Chemical producers have pressured the group after Mosaic (MOS 43.50, -0.91) issued a disappointing forecast. Shares of Mosaic have surrendered 2.1%.

11:00 am: [BRIEFING.COM] Equity indices remain pressured with the S&P 500 (-0.6%) trading roughly seven points above its session low. That leaves the benchmark index 11 points below its flat line with heavily-weighted industrials (-1.3%) and technology (-1.0%) exerting significant pressure.

As mentioned earlier, the industrial space has suffered from weakness among airline stocks. At this juncture, Delta Air Lines (DAL 34.74, -1.41) trades down 3.9% and is the weakest performer in the Dow Jones Transportation Average (-1.9%). GATX (GMT 59.41, +1.04) is the lone outperformer, trading higher by 1.7%.

Elsewhere, the technology sector has endured broad weakness. Chipmakers have not been able to escape the pressure as evidenced by a 1.4% decline in the PHLX Semiconductor Index.

Increased demand for downside protection has sent the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX 16.52, +0.21) to its best level since mid-April before pulling back.

10:35 am: [BRIEFING.COM] Precious metals are trading higher this morning. Dec gold erased overnight losses as it broke above the unchanged line at pit trade open. The yellow metal has been trending slightly higher since and is now 0.4% higher at $1216.40.

Dec silver is also trending upwards this morning after trading as low as $16.90 in overnight action. It touched a session high of $17.34 in recent action and is now up 1.4% at $17.30.

Nov crude oil rose as high as $92.25 ahead of inventory data. In recent action, the energy component popped to new session high of $92.28 following data that showed inventories had a draw of 1.363 mln barrels when a build of 0.7-1.5 mln barrels was anticipated. It is now 1.2% higher at $92.23.

Nov natural gas has given up most of its morning gains after pulling back from a floor session high of $4.18 earlier in the session. It is currently trading at its session low of $4.11, or 0.2% lower.

10:00 am: [BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 trades lower by 0.7%.

August construction spending decreased 0.8% month-over-month, while the Briefing.com consensus expected an increase of 0.4%.

Separately, the ISM Index for September fell to 56.6 from 59.0, while the Briefing.com consensus expected the reading to slip to 58.5.

9:45 am: [BRIEFING.COM] Equity indices slipped out of the gate amid weakness in nine of ten sectors. The S&P 500 trades lower by 0.6% with the industrial sector (-1.2%) showing the largest decline.

The cyclical group has been pressured by transport stocks, and specifically, airlines. The Dow Jones Transportation Average is lower by 1.5% with Delta Air Lines (DAL 34.88, -1.27), Southwest Airlines (LUV 32.72, -1.05), and United Continental (UAL 45.28, -1.51) all down near 3.3% amid fears the first Ebola case in the U.S. may impact air travel.

Outside of industrials, the materials sector (-1.0%) is the only group trading with a loss of 1.0% or more. On the upside, the utilities sector (+0.6%) holds a modest gain.

Treasuries have extended their gains with the 10-yr yield slipping to 2.44%.

The ISM Index for September (consensus 58.5), and the Construction Spending report for August (consensus 0.4%) will both be released at 10:00 ET.

9:15 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -2.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -4.50. The stock market is on track for a lower start with futures on the S&P 500 trading two points below fair value. Index futures poked their head into positive territory at the start of the European session, but that appearance was short lived with risk appetite pressured by disappointing Manufacturing PMI readings from the region. On that note, the overall eurozone reading of 50.3 (forecast 50.5) and Germany's 49.9 (expected 50.3) both missed expectations.

Index futures have notched new lows in recent action amid a spike in Treasuries and German Bunds. Both instruments are on their highs with the U.S. 10-yr yield down four basis points at 2.45% and Germany's benchmark yield off four basis points at 0.86%. Interestingly, the move followed a better than expected ADP Employment report for September, which indicated employment growth of 213K, while the Briefing.com consensus expected a reading of 202K.

On the corporate front, airline stocks have been pressured amid concerns about the first case of Ebola in the United States. Alaska Air (ALK 42.50, -1.04), Delta Air Lines (DAL 35.31, -0.84), JetBlue Airways (JBLU 10.30, -0.32), and Southwest Airlines (LUV 33.15, -0.62) hold pre-market losses between 1.8% and 3.0%.

The ISM Index for September (consensus 58.5), and the Construction Spending report for August (consensus 0.4%) will both be released at 10:00 ET.

8:58 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -4.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -8.30. The S&P 500 futures trade four points below fair value.

The major Asian bourses ended on a mixed note. Pro-Democracy protests continued in Hong Kong for the sixth day.

In economic data:
China's Manufacturing PMI was unchanged at 51.1 (consensus 51.0)
Japan's Tankan Large Manufacturers Index rose to 13 from 12 (expected 10), while Tankan Large Non-Manufacturers Index fell to 13 from 19 (consensus 17). Separately, Manufacturing PMI held at 51.7, as expected
South Korea's CPI slipped 0.1% month-over-month (expected 0.2%; prior 0.2%). Separately, trade surplus narrowed to $3.36 billion from $3.37 billion (expected surplus of $3.78 billion) as exports rose 6.8% (expected 8.2%) and imports increased 8.0% (consensus 6.0%)
Australia's Retail Sales ticked up 0.1% month-over-month (expected 0.4%; previous 0.4%) o Indonesia's Inflation increased to 4.53% year-over-year (expected 4.59%; previous 3.99%)
India's HSBC Markit Manufacturing PMI fell to 51.0 from 52.4 (expected 53.0)

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Japan's Nikkei lost 0.6% to close at its lowest level in two weeks. Industrials weighed as Yaskawa Electric and Mitsumi Electric gave up 4.8% and 2.8%, respectively.
China's Shanghai Composite was closed for National Day.
Hong Kong's Hang Seng was closed in observance of National Day.

Major European indices trade lower across the board with France's CAC (-0.9%) pacing the decline. The Bank of Spain said its most recent data suggests GDP will reach a 2.0% growth rate by the end of the year.

Participants received several data points:
Eurozone Manufacturing PMI ticked down to 50.3 from 50.5 (expected 50.5)
Germany's Manufacturing PMI eased to 49.9 from 50.3 (consensus 50.3)
Great Britain's Manufacturing PMI slipped to 51.6 from 52.2 (expected 52.5)
France's Manufacturing PMI held steady at 48.8, as expected
Italy's Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.7 from 49.8 (forecast 49.5)
Spain's Manufacturing PMI ticked down to 52.6 from 52.8 (expected 52.2)

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Germany's DAX is lower by 0.4% with Deutsche Lufthansa trailing the rest of the index with a loss of 2.4%. Producers of basic materials also lag with BASF, K+S, Lanxess, and ThyssenKrupp down between 1.1% and 2.2%
Great Britain's FTSE has given up 0.7% amid weakness in consumer names. J Sainsbury, Tesco, and WM Morrison Supermarkets are down between 3.5% and 5.1% after Sainsbury lowered its annual sales forecast and Tesco said its accounting practices are being investigated. Royal Mail has jumped 3.0%.
Italy's MIB holds a loss of 0.7%. ENI, Saipem, and Fiat are down between 1.6% and 3.1%.
In France, the CAC trades lower by 0.9% with steelmakers on the defensive. ArcelorMittal and Valeo hold respective losses of 1.6% and 3.2%. Financials have held up well with BNP Paribas and Societe Generale up 0.3% and 0.5%, respectively.

8:29 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -5.60. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -9.80. The S&P 500 futures trade six points below fair value.

The ADP National Employment Report revealed that employment in the nonfarm private business sector rose 213K in September. That was above the increase of 202K expected by the Briefing.com consensus. The August reading was revised down to 202,000 from 204,000.

7:59 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -3.40. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -7.00. U.S. equity futures trade modestly lower amid cautious action overseas. The S&P 500 futures hover three points below fair value after making a short-lived appearance in the green at the start of the European session. Since then, European equities and U.S. futures have headed lower with sentiment pressured by disappointing Manufacturing PMI data from the region.

The Dollar Index posted a 3.9% gain for September and has continued its advance this morning (86.11, +0.17) at the expense of the euro (1.2595) and the Japanese yen (109.90). The stronger greenback has not stopped oil from rebounding with crude futures trading higher by 0.6% at $91.68/bbl.

Treasuries hold slim gains with the 10-yr yield down one basis point at 2.48%.

In U.S. corporate news of note:

Automatic Data Processing (ADP 73.15, -9.93): -12.0% after completing the spin-off of its Dealer Services business.
eBay (EBAY 55.45, -1.18): -2.1% after receiving downgrades from Jefferies, JP Morgan, JMP Securities, and Wedbush.
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ 105.61, -0.98): -0.9% after Bernstein downgraded the stock to 'Market Perform' from 'Outperform.'

The weekly MBA Mortgage Index slipped 0.2% to follow last week's decline of 4.1%.

ADP Employment Change for September (Briefing.com consensus 202K) will be released at 8:15 ET, while the ISM Index for September (consensus 58.5), and the Construction Spending report for August (consensus 0.4%) will both be released at 10:00 ET.

Reviewing overnight developments:

Asian markets ended mixed. Japan's Nikkei -0.6%, while China's Shanghai Composite and Hong Kong's Hang Seng were closed for Golden Week
In economic data:
China's Manufacturing PMI was unchanged at 51.1 (consensus 51.0)
Japan's Tankan Large Manufacturers Index rose to 13 from 12 (expected 10), while Tankan Large Non-Manufacturers Index fell to 13 from 19 (consensus 17). Separately, Manufacturing PMI held at 51.7, as expected
South Korea's CPI slipped 0.1% month-over-month (expected 0.2%; prior 0.2%). Separately, trade surplus narrowed to $3.36 billion from $3.37 billion (expected surplus of $3.78 billion) as exports rose 6.8% (expected 8.2%) and imports increased 8.0% (consensus 6.0%)
Australia's Retail Sales ticked up 0.1% month-over-month (expected 0.4%; previous 0.4%)
Indonesia's Inflation increased to 4.53% year-over-year (expected 4.59%; previous 3.99%)
India's HSBC Markit Manufacturing PMI fell to 51.0 from 52.4 (expected 53.0)
In news:
The slight beat in China's Manufacturing PMI masked declines in input prices and new orders

Major European indices trade mixed. Great Britain's FTSE -0.6%, France's CAC -0.6%, and Germany's DAX -0.2%. Elsewhere, Spain's IBEX +0.1% and Italy's MIB -0.5%
Participants received several data points:
Eurozone Manufacturing PMI ticked down to 50.3 from 50.5 (expected 50.5)
Germany's Manufacturing PMI eased to 49.9 from 50.3 (consensus 50.3)
Great Britain's Manufacturing PMI slipped to 51.6 from 52.2 (expected 52.5)
France's Manufacturing PMI held steady at 48.8, as expected
Italy's Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.7 from 49.8 (forecast 49.5)
Spain's Manufacturing PMI ticked down to 52.6 from 52.8 (expected 52.2)
Among news of note:
The Bank of Spain said its most recent data suggests GDP will reach a 2.0% growth rate by the end of the year

6:41 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -1.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -2.00.

6:41 am:

6:41 am: [BRIEFING.COM] FTSE...6,596.10...-26.60...-0.40%. DAX...9,484.97...+10.70...+0.10%.

Dollar Approaches Strongest in 2 Years Versus Euro

By Mariko Ishikawa and Candice Zachariahs Oct 1, 2014 8:13 PM ET

A gauge of price swings in the dollar versus the yen was poised for its highest close in seven months as investors weighed strengthening U.S. data against concern the Japanese currency’s weakness has been too rapid.

The dollar’s 14-day relative strength index against the yen has been above the threshold that signals excessive gains on all but one day since August. The euro approached the weakest in two years ahead of a European Central Bank meeting today. The Aussie dollar was near an eight-month low as Reserve Bank of Australia policy makers said possible steps to cool the housing market may not be limited to investor lending curbs alone.

“In the short-term, dollar-yen is vulnerable to both the upside and downside,” said Masato Yanagiya, head of currency and money trading at Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp. in New York. “The yen has been consolidating after breaking the significant 110 level. Over the long-term, I think it will weaken further.”

Implied volatility on one-month options on the dollar against the yen was at 8.76 percent as of 9:04 a.m. in Tokyo from 8.57 percent yesterday, headed for the highest close since March 3. The measure is used to set option prices and gauge the expected pace of currency swings. The average this year is 6.95 percent.

The greenback rose 0.1 percent to 108.96 yen from yesterday, when it touched 110.09, the highest since Aug. 25, 2008. The euro was little changed at $1.2627 from its New York close, after reaching $1.2571 on Sept. 30, the weakest since September 2012. It added 0.1 percent to 137.57 yen.

Australia’s dollar traded at 87.51 U.S. cents from 87.38 yesterday, when it touched 86.63, the lowest since Jan. 24.

ECB Stimulus

The euro has tumbled about 10 percent versus the dollar from a 2 1/2-year high reached in May as the ECB unveiled unprecedented stimulus. A weaker currency may suit central-bank President Mario Draghi by making exports more competitive, as well as increasing consumer prices on higher import costs.

The ECB is forecast to keep interest rates unchanged today, according to analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News, after unexpectedly dropping borrowing costs to records on Sept. 4. Draghi said Sept. 22 policy makers “stand ready to use additional unconventional instruments” if necessary.

The Fed is on track to end a bond-purchase stimulus program this month. There’s a 74 percent chance it will raise its rate target by September 2015, based on fed-funds futures trading. The target has been held at virtually zero since 2008.

Companies in the U.S. hired 213,000 people in September, the Roseland, New Jersey-based ADP Research Institute said yesterday. That beat the median estimate of economists polled by Bloomberg calling for 205,000. Economists in a separate survey predict the Labor Department to say tomorrow that 215,000 payrolls were added in September.

The RBA is discussing with the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority “steps that might be taken to reinforce sound lending practices, particularly for investor finance, though not necessarily limited to that,” Assistant Governor Malcolm Edey and Luci Ellis, the head of the central bank’s financial stability unit, said in a statement to a parliamentary panel in Canberra today.

To contact the reporters on this story: Mariko Ishikawa in Tokyo at mishikawa9@bloomberg.net; Candice Zachariahs in Sydney at czachariahs2@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Garfield Reynolds at greynolds1@bloomberg.net Naoto Hosoda, Pavel Alpeyev

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney, Reuters and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
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