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 Post subject: September 18th Thursday Trade Results - Profit $740.00
PostPosted: Thu Sep 18, 2014 11:16 pm 
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Joined: Sat Jan 10, 2009 1:06 pm
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Location: Canada
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Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
Phone: +1 708 572-4885
Free Chat Room: http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=164
Business Hours: 8am - 5pm est (Mon - Fri)
questions@thestrategylab.com (24/7)
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click on the above image to view today's performance verification

Price Action Trade Performance for Today: Emini TF ($TF_F) futures @ $740.00 dollars or +7.40 points, Emini ES ($ES_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.00 points, Light Crude Oil CL ($CL_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.00 points, Gold GC ($GC_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.00 points and EuroFX 6E ($6E_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.0000 ticks. Total Profit @ $740.00 dollars

Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures: 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures: 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup
Light Crude Oil CL (WTI) Futures: 1 tick or 0.01 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup
Gold GC Futures: 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup
EuroFX 6E Futures: 1 tick or 0.0001 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup

In addition, all of my trades were posted real-time in the timestamp ##TheStrategyLab chat room. You can read today's price action trading information about my trades (e.g. time, price entry, contract size, price exit) as the trade traversed to its completion. Also, sometimes I'll post real-time trading tips involving WRBs, WRB Hidden GAPs, Key Market Events (KME), Tutorial Chapters 2 & 3, WRB Zones, Reaction Highs/Lows, Contracting Volatility or Expanding Volatility. Its all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=134&t=1890

Quote:
If any of my real-time posted trades are via key concepts discussed in the WRB Analysis free study guide or the Fading Volatility Breakout (FVB) free trade signal strategy...I will discuss the reasons (trade strategy) behind those trades if/when a user of ##TheStrategyLab chat room ask questions about the trades. In contrast, real-time posted trades that are via the Advance WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 4 - 12 or the Volatility Trading Report (VTR) trade signal strategies...I discuss the reasons (trade strategy) behind those trades with fee-base clients in a different private chat room that's designated only for fee-base clients or discuss the strategies with fee-base clients on my Skype contact list.

Also, posted below are direct links to information about my price action trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis). I'm primarily a day trader because it suits my personal lifestyle but I do occasionally swing trade and position trade. Simply, my trade method is applicable for position trading, swing trading and day trading.

Image ##TheStrategyLab Chat Room is free. Members and I use the chat room to post WRB Analysis commentary, real-time trades and to post anything else related to trading. The chat room helps me tremendously in my own trading because I use it to document (journal) general volatility analysis involving WRB Analysis so that I can easily review at a later date my thoughts as I interacted with the markets...info I can not get from my broker statements. Also, this is not a signal calling chat room where a head trader tells you when to buy or sell and I do not have the time/energy/resources to manage a signal calling chat room. Access instructions for chat room @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=164

Image Price Action Analysis via WRB Analysis Tutorials @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=119&t=718

Image Trade Signal Strategies via Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our price action trade strategies with support (answering your questions) prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Image Trading Plan Daily Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=246&t=2502

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Market Context Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, CNNMoney, Reuters and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED/ECB/BOE/IMF actions or any important global economic events (e.g. Eurozone, MarketWatch.com) that had an impact on today's price action in many trading instruments I monitor during the trading day. Simply, I'm a strong believer that key market events causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility resulting in trade opportunities (swing points and strong continuation price actions) that reach profit targets. Thus, I pay attention to these key market events, intermarket analysis (e.g. Forex EurUsd, EuroFX 6E futures, Gold GC futures, Light Crude Oil (WTI) CL & Brent Oil futures, Eurex DAX futures, Euronext FTSE100 futures, Emini ES futures, Emini TF futures, Treasury ZB futures and U.S. Dollar Index futures) while using WRB Analysis from one trade to the next trade to give me the market context for price action trading before the appearance of my technical analysis trade signals. Therefore, I maintain these archives to allow me to understand what was happening on any given trading day in the past involving key market events to help better understand my trade decisions (day trading, swing trading, position trading)...something I can not get from my broker statements alone. Further, most financial websites remove (delete) their archives after a few years to make room for new content. Therefore, I maintain my own archives of the news content so that I have it available for me when financial websites no longer archives their content.

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click on the above image to view today's price action of key markets

Yahoo! Finance

4:10 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The stock market finished the Thursday session on a higher note with the S&P 500 climbing 0.5%. The benchmark index registered an early high within the first 90 minutes and inched to a new session best during the final hour of the action.

Equities rallied out of the gate with the financial sector (+1.1%) providing noteworthy support for the second day in a row. The growth-oriented sector extended its September gain to 1.9% versus a more modest uptick of 0.4% for the S&P 500.

Although financials did some heavy lifting, other influential sectors like health care (+0.8%) and technology (+0.7%) also served up a measure of support. The health care sector settled ahead of the broader market, but the biotech group was a reluctant participant in the advance. The iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 275.07, +2.09) added 0.8%.

For its part, technology rallied amid strength in chipmaker stocks. SanDisk (SNDK 103.22, +3.00) and Skyworks (SWKS 57.80, +1.92) led the charge with gains close to 3.0% apiece, while the broader PHLX Semiconductor Index added 1.5% amid upbeat commentary from Topeka Capital Markets.

Elsewhere among influential groups, consumer discretionary (+0.4%) and industrials (+0.4%) lagged in the early going, but finished just behind the broader market. In the discretionary sector, the relative strength of high-growth names like Netflix (NFLX 459.01, +4.48) and Priceline.com (PCLN 1197.20, +23.40) masked the underperformance of homebuilders following today's disappointing Housing Starts/Building Permits report. The iShares Dow Jones US Home Construction ETF (ITB 24.01, -0.12) lost 0.5%.

On the downside, energy (-0.5%) and utilities (-0.7%) finished in the red with the energy sector following the price of crude oil, which slid 1.3% to $93.07. As for the sector, the group narrowed its week-to-date gain to 1.0% and widened its quarterly loss to 4.3%.

Treasuries ended flat after surrendering their overnight gains. The 10-yr yield settled at 2.63%.

Participation was ahead of recent averages with more than 660 million shares changing hands at the NYSE.

Economic data included Initial Claims, Housing Starts/Building Permits, and the Philadelphia Fed Survey:

The latest Initial Claims report revealed a drop to 280,000 from 316,000, while the Briefing.com consensus expected a more modest decline to 305,000
The reading marked its lowest level since July and aptly supports the view that the weak payroll growth seen in August is likely to be revised higher
Housing Starts fell to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 956,000 units in August from a revised 1.117 million units in July, while the Briefing.com consensus expected a decrease to 1.045 million units
Building permits fell to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 998,000 versus a revised 1.057 million for July, while the consensus expected permits to come in at 1.054 million
The Philadelphia Fed Survey for September fell to 22.5 from 28.0, while economists polled by Briefing.com had expected that the Survey would slip to 23.5

Tomorrow, the Leading Indicators report for August (Briefing.com consensus 0.4%) will be released at 10:00 ET. In addition, investors will be responding to the results of the independence referendum in Scotland.

Nasdaq Composite +10.0% YTD
S&P 500 +8.8% YTD
Dow Jones Industrial Average +4.2% YTD
Russell 2000 -0.3% YTD

3:25 pm: [BRIEFING.COM]

Precious metals fell in electronic trade yesterday following the FOMC statement which conveyed no changes to the Fed's current policy course. As expected, the FOMC reduced the monthly pace of its asset purchases by $10 bln to $15 bln and maintained the "considerable time" language in its forward guidance.
Dec gold continued to trade lower and fell as low as $1216.30 per ounce in overnight trade, its lowest level since January. It managed to inch slightly higher in late morning action and consolidated near the $1226.00 per ounce level for the remainder of the session. It eventually settled 0.7% lower at $1226.80 per ounce.
Dec silver brushed an overnight low of $18.27 per ounce moments before pit trade opened. It touched a floor session high of $18.62 per ounce and settled with a 1.2% loss at $18.51 per ounce.
Oct crude oil pulled back from its session high of $94.78 per barrel and fell into negative territory shortly after equity markets opened. The energy component continued to trend lower and brushed a session low of $92.85 per barrel before settling with a 1.3% loss at $93.07 per barrel.
Oct natural gas traded as high as $4.03 per MMBtu in early morning action but sold off sharply to a session low of $3.90 per MMBtu following inventory data that showed a build of 90 bcf when a build of 90-93 bcf was anticipated. Unable to regain momentum, it settled at $3.91 per MMBtu, or 2.5% lower.

2:55 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 trades higher by 0.4% with one hour remaining in the session. If the S&P 500 holds its current gain into the close, the index will enter the Friday session with a week-to-date gain of 1.2%.

The benchmark index has had a better showing this week than the Russell 2000 and the Nasdaq Composite. The small-cap Russell 2000 has given up 0.3% this week, while the Nasdaq Composite has added 0.4%. For its part, the Dow has been the top performer of the week with a 1.6% gain since last Friday.

2:30 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 trades higher by 0.4% as the quiet afternoon continues.

Not much has changed among the ten sectors as financials (+1.0%) remain in the lead, while two other heavily-weighted groups-health care (+0.6%) and technology (+0.6%)-follow not far behind. Meanwhile, another influential sector-consumer discretionary-trades in line with the broader market.

The discretionary sector has drawn strength from the likes of Priceline.com (PCLN 1196.09, +22.29) and Netflix (NFLX 459.22, +4.69), while homebuilders have been trapped in the red since today's disappointing Housing Starts/Building Permits report. The iShares Dow Jones US Home Construction ETF (ITB 23.99, -0.14) is lower by 0.6%.

2:00 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] Equity indices remain near their best levels of the session with the S&P 500 trading higher by 0.4%.

Although the third week of September is nearing its end, there is still one big unknown that needs to be resolved ahead of the weekend. Specifically, the results of the Scottish independence referendum are expected to trickle in during the course of the night.

Many European banks have announced that their foreign exchange desks will be fully staffed in preparation for an active morning. The British pound has rallied this week, suggesting forex traders have positioned for the 'no' camp to gain the edge. The pound trades at 1.6370 versus the dollar after starting the week near 1.6260.

1:30 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The IMF expressed its concerns before the start of today's trading that "excessive risk taking may be building up" with valuations for just about every major asset class looking stretched.

As one can see from the standing of the major indices, that warning went in one of the market's ears and out the other. Actually, we're not even sure it went in one ear. The market started with a bullish bias and has maintained that bias throughout today's session.

The only thing the stock market seems to be heeding is the ongoing policy support being provided by the world's leading central banks. With little cause for concern that the policy plug will be pulled anytime soon, risk assets continue to find favor and volatility continues to drop -- two things the IMF worries could lead to a big drop should there be a risk event.

The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX 12.02, -0.63) is down 5% today and nearly 10% for the week while the S&P 500 is up 0.4% and 1.2% for the week.

12:55 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] Equity indices sport midday gains with the Nasdaq Composite (+0.6%) holding the lead. For its part, the S&P 500 is higher by 0.4% with eight sectors trading in the green.

The first half of today's session has been relatively quiet with heavily-weighted sectors responsible for the bulk of the current gain. Most notably, financials (+1.1%) surged out of the gate for the second day in a row. Including the advance, the second-largest group by market cap has added 2.0% so far this week versus a 1.2% gain for the S&P 500.

Similarly, other top-weighted sectors like health care (+0.6%) and technology (+0.6%) also trade ahead of the broader market, while industrials (+0.3%) follow a bit behind. Interestingly, the health care sector trades among the leaders even as biotechnology has struggled to keep up. The iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 274.38, +1.40) has added 0.5%.

Meanwhile, another high-beta group-chipmakers-has fared a bit better than the biotech space. The PHLX Semiconductor Index is higher by 1.2% with upbeat comments from Topeka Capital Markets adding a measure of support. SanDisk (SNDK 103.15, +2.93) and Skyworks (SWKS 57.53, +1.65) lead the bunch with gains close to 3.0% apiece.

On the downside, the energy sector (-0.5%) was pressured to lows by weakness in crude oil. The energy component is lower by 1.2% at $93.34/bbl.

Treasuries are little changed after surrendering overnight gains. The 10-yr yield sits at 2.62%.

Economic data included Initial Claims, Housing Starts/Building Permits, and the Philadelphia Fed Survey:

The latest Initial Claims report revealed a drop to 280,000 from 316,000, while the Briefing.com consensus expected a more modest decline to 305,000
The reading marked its lowest level since July and aptly supports the view that the weak payroll growth seen in August is likely to be revised higher
Housing Starts fell to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 956,000 units in August from a revised 1.117 million units in July, while the Briefing.com consensus expected a decrease to 1.045 million units
Building permits fell to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 998,000 versus a revised 1.057 million for July, while the consensus expected permits to come in at 1.054 million
The Philadelphia Fed Survey for September fell to 22.5 from 28.0, while economists polled by Briefing.com had expected that the Survey would slip to 23.5

12:30 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] Range-bound action continues with the S&P 500 having spent the better part of the past two hours in a four-point range.

The financial sector (+1.1%) surged out of the gate and its continued strength has kept the broader market close to the high even as consumer staples (+0.1%) and energy (-0.4%) have slipped from their early levels. Similarly, the utilities sector (-0.8%) sits on a fresh low, but has had little impact on the market since the group accounts for just 3.0% of the S&P 500.

Elsewhere, the 10-yr note remains flat after surrendering its overnight gain. The benchmark yield hovers near 2.62%.

12:00 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] Equity indices continue drifting near their best levels of the day, but the energy sector (-0.4%) has recently tumbled to a fresh low amid a decline in the price of crude. The energy component is now lower by 1.2% at $93.32/bbl after trading little changed at the start of the session.

Outside of energy, the utilities sector (-0.7%) is the only other decliner. Elsewhere among countercyclical groups, the consumer staples sector underperforms, but has been able to stay out of the red for the time being. CVS (CVS 81.14, -1.10) weighs, trading lower by 1.3% after peer Rite Aid (RAD 5.50, -1.13) reported disappointing results. Shares of RAD have plunged 17.1%.

Meanwhile, the other two defensively-oriented groups-health care (+0.4%) and telecom services (+0.6%)-continue showing relative strength.

11:30 am: [BRIEFING.COM] Equity indices remain near their best levels of the session. The S&P 500 trades higher by 0.4%, while the Nasdaq Composite (+0.5%) displays relative strength.

The Nasdaq has received significant support from tech stocks, which have been able to overshadow the underperformance of biotechnology. Top-weighted sector components like Apple (AAPL 102.12, +0.54), SAP (SAP 77.19, +0.67), and Qualcomm (QCOM 76.32, +0.49) display gains between 0.5% and 0.9%, while chipmakers have had an even better showing. The PHLX Semiconductor Index trades up 1.2% following upbeat commentary from Topeka Capital Markets with Skyworks (SWKS 57.65, +1.77) in the lead. The stock has added 3.1%.

Interestingly, the Nasdaq trades ahead of the broader market even as biotechnology lags. The iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 273.35, +0.37) trades little change, while the health care sector (+0.5%) sits among the leaders.

10:55 am: [BRIEFING.COM] The major averages have built on their early gains with small caps providing leadership. The Russell 2000 is higher by 0.7%, while the S&&P 500 trades up 0.5% with six sectors trading in-line or ahead of the broader market.

Most notably, the financial sector, which has shown strength since the start, is now higher by 1.1%. Top-weighted components have underpinned the sector with the lines of Bank of America (BAC 17.04, +0.27), Citigroup (C 53.49, +1.10), and Goldman Sachs (GS 187.65, +2.83) up between 1.5% and 2.1%.

Similar to financials, other top-weighted sectors like consumer discretionary (+0.5%), health care (+0.5%), and technology (+0.6%) also display relative strength.

Elsewhere, Treasuries remain near their lows with the 10-yr yield at 2.63%.

10:35 am: [BRIEFING.COM] Precious metals continue to trade lower after yesterday's drop in electronic trade following the FOMC statement which conveyed no changes to the Fed's current policy course. As expected, the Fed reduced the monthly pace of its asset purchases by $10 bln to $15 bln and maintained the "considerable time" language in its forward guidance.

Dec gold traded as low as $1216.30 in overnight trade, its lowest level since Jan 2014. It is currently down 0.9% at $1224.40.

Dec silver brushed an overnight low of $18.27 and is currently trading at $18.49, or 1.3% lower. Oct crude oil touched a session high of $94.82 shortly after pit trade opened but has retreated into negative territory in recent action. It is now down 0.5% at $93.94.

Oct natural gas pulled back into the red from its session high of $4.03 set in early morning floor action. It sold off sharply to a session low of $3.90 following inventory data that showed a build of 90 bcf when a build of 90-93 bcf was anticipated. It is now down 1.9% at $3.94.

10:00 am: [BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 trades higher by 0.4%.

The Philadelphia Fed Survey for September fell to 22.5 from 28.0. Economists polled by Briefing.com had expected that the Survey would slip to 23.5.

9:45 am: [BRIEFING.COM] Equity indices have climbed out of the gate with support from most economic sectors. The S&P 500 trades higher by 0.3% with the financial sector (+0.7%) showing relative strength for the second day in a row.

Likewise, the materials sector (+0.5%) also finds itself among the early leaders after displaying relative strength yesterday. Meanwhile, the remaining cyclical groups hover a bit closer to their flat lines.

On the downside, energy (-0.2%) and utilities (-0.3%) sport modest losses.

Treasuries hover just below their flat lines with the 10-yr yield at 2.63%.

The Philadelphia Fed Survey for September (Briefing.com consensus 23.5) will be released at 10:00 ET.

9:13 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +7.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +15.50. The stock market is on track for an upbeat start as futures on the S&P 500 trade eight points above fair value. Index futures spent the Asian session near their flat lines, but lifted off once European markets opened for action. The old continent will be in the spotlight until tomorrow with the Scottish independence referendum taking place today. However, Dundee and Glasgow are not expected to report their results until 3:00 AM and 5:00 AM local time, respectively.

Domestically, the latest Initial Claims report revealed a drop to 280,000 from 316,000, while the Briefing.com consensus expected a more modest decline to 305,000. Housing data was not as upbeat with both Housing Starts (956,000; Briefing.com consensus 1.045 million) and Building Permits (998,000; Briefing.com consensus 1.054 million) for August coming in below expectations.

One more data point remains with the Philadelphia Fed Survey (Briefing.com consensus 23.5) set to be released at 10:00 ET.

Treasuries are little changed with the 10-yr yield at 2.62%.

8:56 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +6.40. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +12.70. The S&P 500 futures trade six points above fair value.

Markets in Asia ended on a mostly higher note. Overnight, Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said, "Industrial production and exports are weak." However, he expects that to reverse as overseas economies gain traction. Also of note, reports out overnight suggested India's outlook would be raised to "Stable" from "Negative" at S&P.

In economic data:
Japan's trade deficit narrowed to JPY920 billion from JPY1.02 trillion (expected deficit of JPY990 billion) as exports fell 1.3% (consensus -2.6%; previous 3.9%) and imports declined 1.5% (forecast -1.2%; prior 2.3%)
China's House Prices ticked up 0.5% year-over-year (expected 2.3%; previous 2.5%)
Hong Kong's Unemployment Rate held steady at 3.3% (consensus 3.4%; prior 3.3%)
New Zealand's GDP rose 0.7% quarter-over-quarter (expected 0.6%; previous 1.0%)

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Japan's Nikkei rallied 1.1% to finish near its best levels of 2014, supported by the yen falling to a six-year low. Exporters gained with Toyota Motor up 1.6% and Advantest higher by 2.5%.
Hong Kong's Hang Seng fell 0.9%, ending near eight-week lows. Property names were pressured as China Resources Land lost 2.8% and Sino Land gave up 2.1%.
China's Shanghai Composite added 0.4% for its second straight gain as trade ended just shy of 18-month highs. Financials continued to outperform with Bank of Communications climbing 3.5%.
India's Sensex rose 1.8% to settle near all-time highs. Automakers paced the advance with Hero MotoCorp surging 5.8% in response to the recently announced partnership with golfer Tiger Woods.

Major European indices trade higher across the board with Germany's DAX (+0.9%) pacing the rally. The European Central Bank has allotted EUR82.60 billion in TLTRO funds against market expectations for EUR133.00 billion. Elsewhere, the Swiss National Bank maintained its key interest rate at 0.25% and made no changes to the euro/franc floor at 1.2000, but warned that risk of deflation has increased once again.

Participants received several data points:
Great Britain's Retail Sales ticked up 0.4% month-over-month, as expected, while the year-over-year reading increased 3.9% (forecast 4.1%; last 2.5%). Core Retail Sales rose 0.2% month-over-month (consensus 0.3%; previous 0.4%), while the year-over-year reading increased 4.5% (forecast 4.8%; last 3.3%). Also of note, CBI Industrial Trends Orders fell to -4 from 11 (expected 9)
Swiss trade surplus narrowed to CHF1.39 billion from CHF3.90 billion (expected surplus of CHF2.32 billion)

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Great Britain's FTSE is higher by 0.5% with financials showing strength. Barclays, Royal Bank of Scotland, and Lloyds Banking Group are up between 1.1% and 1.4%. Miners lag with Antofagasta, Fresnillo, Randgold Resources, and Rio Tinto down between 0.4% and 2.2%.
In France, the CAC has added 0.7%. BNP Paribas and Societe Generale hold respective gains of 1.0% and 1.9%, while consumer names lag. Carrefour, Danone, and L'Oreal are down between 0.1% and 0.4%.
Germany's DAX trades up 0.9% with 18 components showing gains. Bayer is the top performer, up 4.9%, in reaction to reports the company plans to spin off its plastics unit. Deutsche Lufthansa lags, down 1.4%.

8:33 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +7.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +14.00. The S&P 500 futures trade seven points above fair value.

The latest weekly initial jobless claims count totaled 280,000, while the Briefing.com consensus expected a reading of 305,000. Today's tally was below the revised prior week count of 316,000 (from 315,000). As for continuing claims, they fell to 2.429 million from 2.492 million.

Separately, Housing Starts fell to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 956,000 units in August. That was down from a revised 1.117 million units in July. The Briefing.com consensus expected starts to decrease to 1.045 million units.

Building permits fell to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 998,000 in August versus a revised 1.057 million for July. The Briefing.com consensus expected permits to come in at 1.054 million.

7:58 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +7.40. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +14.50. U.S. equity futures trade modestly higher amid upbeat action overseas. The S&P 500 futures hover seven points above fair value after climbing to highs after the start of the European session. That is somewhat fitting considering Europe, and specifically Scotland, will be in focus this evening with the referendum on independence taking place at this time. Referendum results are not expected until well after today's closing bell considering regions like Dundee and Glasgow will not report their results until 3:00 AM and 5:00 AM local time, respectively.

Domestically, participants have received a handful of quarterly earnings, but the reports are not expected to have market-moving impact. On the economic front, weekly Initial Claims (Briefing.com consensus 305K) and August Housing Starts (consensus 1045K)/Building Permits (expected 1054K) will be released at 8:30 ET, while the Philadelphia Fed survey for September (consensus 23.5) will cross the wires at 10:00 ET.

Treasuries hold slim gains with the 10-yr yield down one basis point at 2.62%.

In U.S. corporate news of note:

Pier 1 Imports (PIR 13.75, -1.79): -11.5% after missing earnings/revenue estimates and lowering its guidance for the full year.
Rite Aid (RAD 5.96, -0.68): -10.2% after its cautious guidance overshadowed its bottom-line beat.
United Natural Foods (UNFI 65.70, +2.09): +3.3% in reaction to better than expected results and a modest increase in guidance.

Reviewing overnight developments:

Asian markets ended mostly higher. Hong Kong's Hang Seng -0.9%, China's Shanghai Composite +0.4%, and Japan's Nikkei +1.1%
In economic data:
Japan's trade deficit narrowed to JPY920 billion from JPY1.02 trillion (expected deficit of JPY990 billion) as exports fell 1.3% (consensus -2.6%; previous 3.9%) and imports declined 1.5% (forecast -1.2%; prior 2.3%)
China's House Prices ticked up 0.5% year-over-year (expected 2.3%; previous 2.5%)
Hong Kong's Unemployment Rate held steady at 3.3% (consensus 3.4%; prior 3.3%)
New Zealand's GDP rose 0.7% quarter-over-quarter (expected 0.6%; previous 1.0%)
In news:
The disappointing House Price report from China revealed a month-over-month decline in 68 out of 70 cities after the prior report showed declines in 64 cities.

Major European indices trade higher across the board. Great Britain's FTSE +0.5%, France's CAC +0.6%, and Germany's DAX +1.0%. Elsewhere, Italy's MIB +0.4% and Spain's IBEX +0.8%
Participants received several data points:
Great Britain's Retail Sales ticked up 0.4% month-over-month, as expected, while the year-over-year reading increased 3.9% (forecast 4.1%; last 2.5%). Core Retail Sales rose 0.2% month-over-month (consensus 0.3%; previous 0.4%), while the year-over-year reading increased 4.5% (forecast 4.8%; last 3.3%). Also of note, CBI Industrial Trends Orders fell to -4 from 11 (expected 9)
Swiss trade surplus narrowed to CHF1.39 billion from CHF3.90 billion (expected surplus of CHF2.32 billion)
Among news of note:
The Swiss National Bank maintained its key interest rate at 0.25% and made no changes to the euro/franc floor at 1.2000, but warned that risk of deflation has increased once again.
The European Central Bank has allotted EUR82.60 billion in TLTRO funds against market expectations for EUR133.00 billion.

7:02 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +8.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +15.00.

7:02 am: [BRIEFING.COM] Nikkei...16,067.57...+178.90...+1.10%. Hang Seng...24,168.72...-207.70...-0.90%.

7:02 am: [BRIEFING.COM] FTSE...6,810.57...+29.70...+0.40%. DAX...9,755.83...+94.70...+1.00%.

Dollar Set for Six-Week Gain Versus Yen on Fed Bets; Pound Rises

By Kristine Aquino and Candice Zachariahs Sep 18, 2014 10:04 PM ET

The dollar headed for a six-week gain versus the yen as the Federal Reserve moves closer to raising interest rates, diverging from its Japanese peer. The pound rose on prospects Scotland rejected independence.

A gauge of the U.S. currency versus major peers was set to climb for a fifth week and Treasury yields climbed after the Fed raised its target interest-rate forecast this week. The yen fell against its main counterparts after Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda reiterated that easing will continue until inflation stabilizes at 2 percent. The pound extended gains, touching the strongest level in more than two weeks.

“It’s less a yen story and more a dollar story, and that’s why we’re likely to see broad-based U.S. dollar strength,” said Su-Lin Ong, head of Australian economic and fixed-income strategy at Royal Bank of Canada in Sydney. The question is: “are we at a bit of a turning point in terms of Fed policy and U.S. yields?” she said.

The dollar added 0.3 percent to 109.05 yen at 11:02 a.m. in Tokyo, after touching 109.46, the highest since August 2008. It has climbed 1.6 percent since Sept. 12, set to rise for a sixth week, the longest advance since the period through Dec. 27. The greenback gained 0.1 percent to $1.2908 per euro, up 0.4 percent this week. The yen declined 0.3 percent to 140.82 per euro, set for a 1.2 percent weekly drop.

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, which tracks the greenback against 10 major currencies, has risen 0.2 percent this week, set for a fifth-straight period of gains that’s the longest stretch since March 2013. The yield on 10-year Treasuries touched 2.65 percent, the highest since July 7.

Rate Projections

Fed officials who met Sept. 16-17 increased their median estimate for the federal funds rate to 1.375 percent at the end of next year, versus June’s forecast for 1.125 percent.

There’s an 80 percent chance the U.S. central bank will raise its target for overnight lending between banks by its September 2015 meeting, futures data compiled by Bloomberg showed yesterday. That’s up from a 73 percent chance on Aug. 29. The target rate has been in a range of zero to 0.25 percent since 2008 to support the economy.

The BOJ’s Kuroda said yesterday in Tokyo that policy makers won’t hesitate to adjust policy if needed. The central bank kept a pledge to increase the monetary base at an annual pace of 60 trillion yen ($551 billion) to 70 trillion yen at a gathering this month. It next meets on Oct. 6-7.

The dollar has risen 2.6 percent in the past month, the best performer among 10 developed-nation currencies tracked by Bloomberg Correlation-Weighted Indexes. The yen has lost 4 percent, the biggest decline within the set of gauges. The euro has fallen 0.9 percent.

Scotland Vote

The pound strengthened at least 0.5 percent versus all of its 31 major counterparts as districts reported results of a referendum on Scotland’s independence. In Clackmannanshire, the first district to give its results, those against independence took 54 percent of the vote, compared to 46 percent choosing “yes.” Orkney followed, with 67 percent “no” to 33 percent “yes,” then Shetland, by 64 percent to 36 percent for “yes.”

“We expect the (still) large proportion of undecided voters to swing in favour of the ‘No’ with GBP undergoing a substantial relief rally,” Adam Myers, the European head of foreign-exchange strategy at Credit Agricole SA’s corporate and investment banking unit in London, wrote in an e-mailed note to clients today. The currency may trade above its Sept. 1 close, Myers wrote.

The pound touched $1.6525, the strongest since Sept. 2, before trading at $1.6513, up 0.7 percent from yesterday. It closed at $1.6608 on Sept. 1.

To contact the reporters on this story: Kristine Aquino in Singapore at kaquino1@bloomberg.net; Candice Zachariahs in Sydney at czachariahs2@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Garfield Reynolds at greynolds1@bloomberg.net Naoto Hosoda, Jonathan Annells

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney, Reuters and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader Image@ http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader

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