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 Post subject: September 4th Thursday Trade Results - Profit $1912.50
PostPosted: Thu Sep 04, 2014 10:23 pm 
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Joined: Sat Jan 10, 2009 2:06 pm
Posts: 4335
Location: Canada
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Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
Phone: +1 708 572-4885
Free Chat Room: http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=164
Business Hours: 8am - 5pm est (Mon - Fri)
questions@thestrategylab.com (24/7)
http://twitter.com/wrbtrader (24/7)

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click on the above image to view today's performance verification

Price Action Trade Performance for Today: Emini TF ($TF_F) futures @ $1,450.00 dollars or +14.50 points, Emini ES ($ES_F) futures @ $462.50 dollars or +9.25 points, Light Crude Oil CL ($CL_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.00 points, Gold GC ($GC_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.00 points and EuroFX 6E ($6E_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.0000 ticks. Total Profit @ $1,912.50 dollars

Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures: 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures: 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup
Light Crude Oil CL (WTI) Futures: 1 tick or 0.01 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup
Gold GC Futures: 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup
EuroFX 6E Futures: 1 tick or 0.0001 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup

In addition, all of my trades were posted real-time in the timestamp ##TheStrategyLab chat room. You can read today's price action trading information about my trades (e.g. time, price entry, contract size, price exit) as the trade traversed to its completion. Also, sometimes I'll post real-time trading tips involving WRBs, WRB Hidden GAPs, Key Market Events (KME), Tutorial Chapters 2 & 3, WRB Zones, Reaction Highs/Lows, Contracting Volatility or Expanding Volatility. Its all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=134&t=1880

Quote:
If any of my real-time posted trades are via key concepts discussed in the WRB Analysis free study guide or the Fading Volatility Breakout (FVB) free trade signal strategy...I will discuss the reasons (trade strategy) behind those trades if/when a user of ##TheStrategyLab chat room ask questions about the trades. In contrast, real-time posted trades that are via the Advance WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 4 - 12 or the Volatility Trading Report (VTR) trade signal strategies...I discuss the reasons (trade strategy) behind those trades with fee-base clients in a different private chat room that's designated only for fee-base clients or discuss the strategies with fee-base clients on my Skype contact list.

Also, posted below are direct links to information about my price action trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis). I'm primarily a day trader because it suits my personal lifestyle but I do occasionally swing trade and position trade. Simply, my trade method is applicable for position trading, swing trading and day trading.

Image ##TheStrategyLab Chat Room is free. Members and I use the chat room to post WRB Analysis commentary, real-time trades and to post anything else related to trading. The chat room helps me tremendously in my own trading because I use it to document (journal) general volatility analysis involving WRB Analysis so that I can easily review at a later date my thoughts as I interacted with the markets...info I can not get from my broker statements. Also, this is not a signal calling chat room where a head trader tells you when to buy or sell and I do not have the time/energy/resources to manage a signal calling chat room. Access instructions for chat room @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=164

Image Price Action Analysis via WRB Analysis Tutorials @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=119&t=718

Image Trade Signal Strategies via Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our price action trade strategies with support (answering your questions) prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Image Trading Plan Daily Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=246&t=2502

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Market Context Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, CNNMoney, Reuters and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED/ECB/BOE/IMF actions or any important global economic events (e.g. Eurozone, MarketWatch.com) that had an impact on today's price action in many trading instruments I monitor during the trading day. Simply, I'm a strong believer that key market events causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility resulting in trade opportunities (swing points and strong continuation price actions) that reach profit targets. Thus, I pay attention to these key market events, intermarket analysis (e.g. Forex EurUsd, EuroFX 6E futures, Gold GC futures, Light Crude Oil (WTI) CL & Brent Oil futures, Eurex DAX futures, Euronext FTSE100 futures, Emini ES futures, Emini TF futures, Treasury ZB futures and U.S. Dollar Index futures) while using WRB Analysis from one trade to the next trade to give me the market context for price action trading before the appearance of my technical analysis trade signals. Therefore, I maintain these archives to allow me to understand what was happening on any given trading day in the past involving key market events to help better understand my trade decisions (day trading, swing trading, position trading)...something I can not get from my broker statements alone. Further, most financial websites remove (delete) their archives after a few years to make room for new content. Therefore, I maintain my own archives of the news content so that I have it available for me when financial websites no longer archives their content.

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click on the above image to view today's price action of key markets

Yahoo! Finance

4:10 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The stock market ended the Thursday session on a modestly lower note following a daylong retreat from the opening high. The S&P 500 shed 0.2%, while the Russell 2000 (-0.4%) finished behind the benchmark index.

Overnight, the Bank of Japan and the Bank of England made no changes to their policy stances, while the European Central Bank announced a rate cut. The ECB lowered its main refinance rate to 0.05% from 0.15%, cut its deposit facility rate to -0.2% from -0.1%, and cut the marginal lending rate to 0.3% from 0.4%. In addition to the cuts, the central bank announced the deployment of an asset-backed securities purchase program, but it was revealed that the decision was not unanimous.

The policy move pressured the euro, sending the single currency to its lowest level since July of last year. Prior to the announcement, the euro traded at 1.3130 versus the dollar, but fell below the 1.2950 level. In turn, the US Dollar Index jumped 1.1% to its best close in nearly 14 months.

Generally speaking, cyclical sectors held up better than the defensively-oriented groups. The consumer discretionary sector (+0.4%) jumped into the lead shortly after the open and remained in that position until the close. Homebuilders contributed to the strength with Hovnanian (HOV 4.25, +0.05) climbing 1.2% in reaction to better than expected quarterly results. The iShares Dow Jones US Home Construction ETF (ITB 23.68, +0.18) gained 0.8%.

Retail stocks also served up a measure of support with the SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT 89.39, +0.52) adding 0.6%. Apparel retailer PVH (PVH 128.42, +11.29) surged 9.6% after beating earnings estimates and lowering its revenue guidance.

Meanwhile, the remaining growth-oriented sectors posted modest losses, but energy tumbled 1.3% amid a 1.0% decline in crude oil prices ($94.58). The sector was pressured by shares of BP (BP 44.89, -2.82), which tumbled 5.9% after a federal judge found the company grossly negligent in causing the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico in 2010.

On the countercyclical side, the consumer staples sector (+0.2%) was the lone advancer with Costco's (COST 125.15, +3.80) strong same store sales for August providing a measure of support. On the flip side, telecom services (-0.2%) and utilities (unch) spent the bulk of the session in the red, while health care (-0.5%) slumped in the afternoon. Biotechnology fueled the retreat with the iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 270.92, -4.54) sliding 1.7%.

Despite the afternoon retreat among equities, Treasuries ended the day on their lows with the 10-yr yield up five basis points at 2.45%.

Participation was ahead of recent averages with more than 613 million shares changing hands at the NYSE.

Economic data included initial claims, ADP Employment Change, Q2 Unit Labor Costs/Productivity, trade balance, and the August ISM Services Index:

The initial claims level increased to 302,000 from an unrevised 298,000, while the Briefing.com consensus expected an increase to 300,000
Today's ADP National Employment Report revealed that employment in the nonfarm private business sector rose 204K in August, which was below the increase of 220K expected by the Briefing.com consensus
The July reading was revised down to 212,000 from 218,000
The U.S. trade deficit narrowed slightly in July to $40.50 billion, which was the smallest trade deficit since January, from a downwardly revised $40.80 billion (from $41.50 billion) in June, while the Briefing.com consensus expected an increase to $42.00 billion
The goods deficit fell $200 million to $60.20 billion in July from $60.40 billion in June
The services surplus was unchanged at $19.60 billion
Nonfarm labor productivity in Q2 2014 was revised down to 2.3% in the second estimate from 2.5% in the advance estimate, while the consensus expected a revision up to 2.6%
A relatively large downward revision to hourly compensation (2.3% from 3.1%) led to a quarterly decline in unit labor costs (-0.1% from +0.6%), which represented the fourth decline out of the last six quarters
The ISM Non-manufacturing Index for August increased to 59.6 from 58.7, while the Briefing.com consensus expected a drop to 57.8
That was the strongest reading of the Index since it was redone in January 2008
Per the old methodology, the index is at its highest level since reaching 61.4 in August 2005

Tomorrow, the Nonfarm Payrolls report for August (Briefing.com consensus 223,000) will be released at 8:30 ET.

Nasdaq Composite +9.2% YTD
S&P 500 +8.1% YTD
Dow Jones Industrial Average +3.0% YTD
Russell 2000 +0.5% YTD

3:30 pm: [BRIEFING.COM]

Dec gold rallied to a session high of $1279.20 per ounce in morning action. However, it gave up the gain as the dollar index strengthened on the ECB's decision to cut all three of its financing rates and Mario Draghi's statement that the central bank would begin purchasing simple ABS in October. The yellow metal brushed a session low of $1265.50 per ounce and settled with a 0.3% loss at $1266.10 per ounce.
Dec silver also pulled back into negative territory after trading as high as $19.39 per ounce in morning pit trade. It eventually settled at $19.13 per ounce, or 0.4% lower.
Oct crude oil traded in negative territory as the stronger dollar index weighed on prices. It touched a session high of $95.28 per barrel following inventory data that showed a draw of 0.905 mln barrels when a draw of 1.0-1.1 mln barrels was anticipated but quickly pulled back. It dipped as low as $94.16 per barrel and settled with a 1.0% loss at $94.51 per barrel.
Oct natural gas slid from a session high of $3.88 per MMBtu to a session low of $3.79 per MMBtu after the EIA reported that natural gas inventories showed a build of 79 bcf vs expectations for a build of 73-74 bcf was expected. Unable to regain momentum, it settled with a 0.5% loss at $3.82 per MMBtu.

3:00 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (-0.2%) has dipped below its flat line with one hour remaining in the session. The benchmark index climbed out of the gate, but reversed its advance shortly after notching a session high at 11:00 ET. The S&P 500 has been drifting lower since then and now sits on a fresh low for the day.

The recent dip into the red saw the energy sector (-1.4%) mark a fresh low, while today's leader-consumer discretionary (+0.5%)-has inched away from its best level of the session.

Interestingly, the retreat from late morning highs has not fueled demand for Treasuries. The 10-yr note is lower by 14 ticks with its yield up five basis points at 2.45%.

2:30 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (+0.1%) continues holding a slim gain as the quiet afternoon nears the final hour of action. Given its current standing, the benchmark index is on track to enter tomorrow's session unchanged for the week.

While the S&P 500 has held its ground since last Friday, today's leading sector-consumer discretionary (+0.7%)-is also the top performer on the week. The sector holds a week-to-date gain of 0.7%. Meanwhile, the energy sector, which is down 1.0% today, has trailed the remaining nine groups and is down 1.9% for the week.

Elsewhere, Treasuries remain near their lows with the 10-yr yield up five basis points at 2.45%.

1:55 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (+0.2%) has continued its retreat from highs and now trades in the lower half of today's trading range. Despite the move in the benchmark index, the consumer discretionary sector (+0.7%) remains near its best level of the day. Meanwhile, most other cyclical groups continue showing relative strength, while energy (-0.9%) has recently notched a fresh low.

Over on the countercyclical side, the health care sector is flat after sliding from its early high. Biotechnology weighs with the iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 274.05, -1.41) on track for its third consecutive decline. The high-beta ETF is lower by 0.5% today.

1:30 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The major indices have backtracked from their best levels of the day but remain in positive territory with gains between 0.2% and 0.3%.

It is a relatively subdued response in light of the ECB's efforts today to spike the monetary policy punch bowl with additional interest rate cuts and the announcement of an asset-backed securities purchase program.

The aforementioned decision hasn't played out too well for the euro today, which is down 1.5% against the dollar to 1.2951. That is the first drop below 1.30 since July 19, 2013. The yen is also weak today as the greenback is up 0.4% against the Japanese currency.

The aforementioned currency moves have helped drive the US Dollar Index 1.1% higher to 83.80, which is its highest level since July 2013. That dollar strength might actually be working to take a little steam out of today's rally as participants recognize it will be a drag on the earnings prospects for US multinational companies should it persist.

1:00 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] Equity indices hold modest midday gains with the S&P 500 trading higher by 0.3%. The Russell 2000 and Nasdaq Composite outperformed in the early going, but are now in line with the broader market.

The stock market has spent the first half of the session in the green following a rate cut announcement from the European Central Bank. This morning, the ECB lowered its main refinance rate to 0.05% from 0.15%, cut its deposit facility rate to -0.2% from -0.1%, and cut the marginal lending rate to 0.3% from 0.4%. In addition, the central bank announced the deployment of an asset-backed securities purchase program, but it was revealed that the decision was not unanimous. Furthermore, ECB President Mario Draghi said rates are now at their lower bound.

The announcement weighed on the euro, sending the single currency to its lowest level since the middle of last July. The euro/dollar pair has plunged from a session high of 1.3155 to a low near 1.2920. A slight uptick has the euro trading in the 1.2940 area at this juncture.

Although equities climbed at the open, the S&P 500 has been inching away from its morning high over the past couple hours. Overall, cyclical sectors have shown relative strength with five of six growth-sensitive groups trading ahead of the broader market. The discretionary sector (+0.7%) leads with homebuilders factoring into the strength. The iShares Dow Jones US Home Construction ETF (ITB 23.73, +0.23) is higher by 1.0% after Hovnanian (HOV 4.26, +0.06) reported better than expected results.

Elsewhere, the technology sector (+0.4%) outperforms thanks to broad strength. Influential listings like Google (GOOGL 594.54, +5.02) and Intel (INTC 34.90, +0.33) hold gains close to 1.0% apiece, while the PHLX Semiconductor Index has added 0.6%.

On the downside, the energy sector (-0.7%) lags, while crude oil trades down 1.1% at $94.52/bbl. Shares of BP (BP 45.21, -2.50) have added to the pressure after a federal judge found the company grossly negligent in causing an oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico in 2010.

Treasuries are on their lows with the 10-yr yield up five basis points at 2.45%.

Economic data included initial claims, ADP Employment Change, Q2 Unit Labor Costs/Productivity, trade balance, and the August ISM Services Index:

The initial claims level increased to 302,000 from an unrevised 298,000, while the Briefing.com consensus expected an increase to 300,000
Today's ADP National Employment Report revealed that employment in the nonfarm private business sector rose 204K in August, which was below the increase of 220K expected by the Briefing.com consensus
The July reading was revised down to 212,000 from 218,000
The U.S. trade deficit narrowed slightly in July to $40.50 billion, which was the smallest trade deficit since January, from a downwardly revised $40.80 billion (from $41.50 billion) in June, while the Briefing.com consensus expected an increase to $42.00 billion
The goods deficit fell $200 million to $60.20 billion in July from $60.40 billion in June
The services surplus was unchanged at $19.60 billion
Nonfarm labor productivity in Q2 2014 was revised down to 2.3% in the second estimate from 2.5% in the advance estimate, while the consensus expected a revision up to 2.6%
A relatively large downward revision to hourly compensation (2.3% from 3.1%) led to a quarterly decline in unit labor costs (-0.1% from +0.6%), which represented the fourth decline out of the last six quarters
The ISM Non-manufacturing Index for August increased to 59.6 from 58.7, while the Briefing.com consensus expected a drop to 57.8
That was the strongest reading of the Index since it was redone in January 2008
Per the old methodology, the index is at its highest level since reaching 61.4 in August 2005

12:25 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (+0.3%) continues holding a modest gain, while the Nasdaq Composite (+0.4%) outperforms.

The tech-heavy index has received support from some of its largest components, while high-beta chipmakers have also shown relative strength. Apple (AAPL 99.58, +0.64) and Google (GOOGL 595.62, +6.10) hold respective gains of 0.6% and 1.0%, while the PHLX Semiconductor Index is higher by 0.6% with its top component-Intel (INTC 34.90, +0.33)-trading up 1.0%.

Interestingly, the Nasdaq has been able to stay ahead of the broader market even as biotechnology lags. The iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 274.09, -1.37) is lower by 0.5%.

12:00 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (+0.3%) has backed away from its best level of the day, but continues holding the bulk of its advance. Five of six cyclical sectors trade ahead of the broader market, while the energy sector (-0.6%) has slumped to a new low. Similarly, crude oil has returned to its worst level of the day and now trades lower by 1.2% at $94.38/bbl.

Meanwhile, three of four countercyclical sectors are showing relative weakness. Health care (unch), telecom services (-0.4%), and utilities (-0.2%) lag, while the consumer staples sector trades in line with the broader market. Costco (COST 124.29, +2.94) has provided support, climbing 2.4% in reaction to upbeat August same store sales.

11:25 am: [BRIEFING.COM] Equities continue hovering near their highs with the S&P 500 up 0.4%.

This morning, the European Central Bank cut its interest rates and announced the deployment of an asset-backed securities purchase program. The news weighed on the euro and the single currency has continued its retreat throughout the morning. Prior to the decision announcement, the euro was near 1.3135, but now trades at 1.2970 against the dollar, which represents the lowest exchange rate since the middle of last July.

Elsewhere, Treasuries have been retreating since this morning and the 10-yr note is now lower by 14 ticks with its yield up five basis points at 2.45%.

11:00 am: [BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (+0.5%) continues trading near its session high that was notched within the past hour of action. Not much change has taken place among the ten sectors as the consumer discretionary space (+0.8%) remains in the lead.

Homebuilders have contributed to the sector's outperformance following an upbeat quarterly report from Hovnanian (HOV 4.32, +0.12). The stock has jumped 2.9%, while the iShares Dow Jones US Home Construction ETF (ITB 23.71, +0.21) is higher by 0.9%. Retailers also outperform with SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT 89.63, +0.76) up 0.9%.

Elsewhere, the energy sector (+0.2%) is the weakest performer among cyclical groups. BP (BP 45.45, -2.26) weighs, trading lower by 4.9% after a judge ruled the company's gross negligence led to the Gulf spill in 2010.

10:35 am: [BRIEFING.COM]

The dollar index is up notable this morning, which is weighing on select commodities.
The dollar index rose above the 83.00 level today, hit a new 52-week high and is currently +0.8% at 83.52
WTI crude oil has been in the red all day so far, while copper futures have been trading in positive territory all day so far
Ahead of the weekly inventory data, Oct natural gas was about 0.8% higher at $3.88/MMBtu
Following the data, Oct nat gas dropped to a new LoD and is now -1.2% at $3.80/MMBtu
Oct crude oil is currently -0.6% at $95.01/barrel, while Dec copper is +1% at $3.16/lb
Due to the Monday holiday, the weekly crude oil inventory data will be released at 11am EST today.

10:00 am: [BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 has extended its gain to 0.4%, while the leading sector-consumer discretionary-now trades higher by 0.7%.

Just released, the ISM Services Index for August rose to 59.6 from 58.7, while the Briefing.com consensus expected a downtick to 57.8.

9:40 am: [BRIEFING.COM] Equity indices registered modest gains in the early going. The S&P 500 trades higher by 0.2% with seven sectors in the green. The consumer discretionary sector (+0.5%) is the top performer, while other cyclical groups are a bit more mixed. Financials (+0.3%) and industrials (+0.4%) outperform, while energy (-0.3%), materials (+0.1%), and technology (+0.2%) are among the laggards.

On the countercyclical side, health care (+0.2%) and consumer staples (+0.2%) have shown early strength, while telecom services (-0.2%), and utilities (unch) trade near their flat lines.

Treasuries are near their lows with the 10-yr yield up two basis points at 2.42%.

The ISM Services report for August (Briefing.com consensus 57.8) will be released at 10:00 ET.

9:15 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +4.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +12.20. The stock market is on track for an upbeat open with futures on the S&P 500 trading five points above fair value. Index futures held modest losses through the early part of the overnight session, but ran to highs in the early morning. A brief uptick followed after the European Central Bank announced a set of rate cuts. The ECB lowered its main refinance rate to 0.05% from 0.15%, cut its deposit facility rate to -0.2% from -0.1%, and cut the marginal lending rate to 0.3% from 0.4%. In addition, the central bank announced the deployment of an asset-backed securities purchase program, but it was revealed that the decision was not unanimous. Furthermore, ECB President Drahi said rates are now at their lower bound.

Domestically, investors have received a full slate of economic data, including the ADP National Employment Report for August, which missed expectations (204K versus Briefing.com consensus 220K).

Separately, the initial claims level increased to 302,000 from an unrevised 298,000, while the Briefing.com consensus expected an increase to 300,000. Also of note, the trade deficit narrowed slightly to $40.50 billion from a downwardly revised $40.80 billion (from $41.50 billion) in June, while the consensus expected the trade deficit to increase to $42.0 billion.

Finally, second quarter productivity was revised down to 2.3% from 2.5% (consensus 2.6%), while unit labor costs were revised down to -0.1% from 0.6% (consensus 0.5%).

One more data point remains with the ISM Services report for August (consensus 57.8) set to cross the wires at 10:00 ET.

Treasuries are near their morning lows with the 10-yr yield up three basis points at 2.43%.

8:59 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +3.40. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +9.50. The S&P 500 futures trade three points above fair value.

Markets fell across most of Asia. The Bank of Japan kept policy on hold, as expected.

In economic data:
South Korea's GDP was revised down to 0.5% quarter-over-quarter from 0.6% (expected 0.6%)
Australia's trade deficit narrowed to AUD1.36 billion from AUD1.56 billion (expected deficit of AUD1.51 billion) as exports grew 1.0% month-over-month, while imports were unchanged. Separately, Retail Sales increased 0.4% month-over-month (expected 0.4%; last 0.6%)

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Japan's Nikkei shed 0.3%, sliding from seven-month highs. Sumitomo Metal Mining outperformed, climbing 4.3% following an analyst upgrade.
Hong Kong's Hang Seng shed 0.1%, holding near its best level in more than six years. Real estate developers were mixed with China Resources Land up 1.5% and Cheung Kong Holdings down 1.4%.
China's Shanghai Composite gained 0.8% to register its fifth day of gains and close at its best level in 15 months. Property stocks saw robust gains as China Vanke climbed 2.0% and Poly Real Estate Group tacked on 1.2%.

Major European indices trade higher across the board following a rate cut from the European Central Bank and no policy changes from the Bank of England. The European Central Bank cut its main refinance rate to 0.05% from 0.15%, lowered its deposit facility rate to -0.2% from -0.1%, and cut the marginal lending rate to 0.3% from 0.4%.

Economic data was limited:
Eurozone Retail PMI slipped to 45.8 from 47.6
Germany's Factory Orders rose 4.6% month-over-month (expected 1.5%; last -3.2%)
French Unemployment Rate ticked up to 10.2% from 10.1%

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Great Britain's FTSE is higher by 0.2% with Standard Life in the lead. The stock has jumped 7.5% after agreeing to sell its Canadian assets. Consumer names lag with Tesco, J Sainsbury, and WM Morrison Supermarkets down between 0.7% and 0.9%.
Germany's DAX trades up 0.5% with exporters showing strength. Daimler is higher by 0.8% and Volkswagen is higher by 1.4%. BASF lags, down 1.1%.
In France, the CAC holds an advance of 1.2% with 37 of 40 components trading higher. Insurer AXA leads with a gain of 1.9%. Consumer names are among the leaders with Danone up 1.2%.
In Italy, the MIB has jumped 1.5% amid strength in financials. Banco Popolare, Intesa Sanpaolo, and Unicredit are up between 2.4% and 3.2%.

8:34 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +6.70. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +13.00. The S&P 500 futures trade seven points above fair value.

The latest weekly initial jobless claims count totaled 302,000, while the Briefing.com consensus expected a reading of 300,000. Today's tally was above the revised prior week count of 298,000. As for continuing claims, they fell to 2.464 million from 2.528 million.

Separately, today's ADP National Employment Report revealed that employment in the nonfarm private business sector rose 204K in August. That was below the increase of 220K expected by the Briefing.com consensus. The July reading was revised down to 212,000 from 218,000.

The July trade deficit narrowed to $40.50 billion from $40.80 billion, while the Briefing.com consensus expected the deficit to come in at $42.00 billion.

Productivity data for the second quarter showed an increase of 2.3%, which was worse than the 2.5% increase that had been reported in the preliminary reading. It was also below the 2.6% increase that had been expected by the Briefing.com consensus. Unit labor costs for the second quarter were revised lower to reflect a decrease of 0.1% after they had reportedly increased 0.6% in the preliminary reading. Economists polled by Briefing.com had expected that unit labor costs would be revised to reflect an increase of 0.5%.

8:00 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +5.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +8.70. U.S. equity futures trade modestly higher amid upbeat action overseas. The S&P 500 futures hover five points above fair value following a night filled with central bank commentary. In Asia, the Bank of Japan maintained its policy stance, which was also the approach employed by the Bank of England. However, the European Central Bank bucked the trend and lowered its interest rate corridor. The central bank cut its main refinance rate to 0.05% from 0.15%, lowered its deposit facility rate to -0.2% from -0.1%, and cut the marginal lending rate to 0.3% from 0.4%.

The ECB decision caused a retreat in the euro, sending the single currency into the 1.3050 area from 1.3130 versus the dollar. The announcement gave a boost to European equities and a short-lived bump to U.S. equity futures.

Domestically, participants are due for a full slate of economic data. The ADP Employment Change report (Briefing.com consensus 220K) will be released at 8:15 ET, while weekly initial claims (consensus 300K), July Trade Balance (consensus -$42.00 billion), and Q2 productivity (consensus 2.6%)/unit labor costs (expected 0.5%) will all be released at 8:30 ET. Finally, the ISM Services report for August (consensus 57.8) will cross the wires at 10:00 ET.

Treasuries hold modest losses with the 10-yr yield up one basis point at 2.41%.

In U.S. corporate news of note:

Ciena (CIEN 18.20, -2.26): -11.1% after its cautious revenue guidance overshadowed its bottom-line beat.
Joy Global (JOY 60.26, -1.94): -3.1% after missing estimates and lowering its guidance for the full year.
Verifone (PAY 35.40, +0.86): +2.5% after beating expectations and issuing mixed guidance.

Reviewing overnight developments:

Asian markets ended on a mostly lower note. Hong Kong's Hang Seng -0.1%, Japan's Nikkei -0.3%, and China's Shanghai Composite +0.8%.
In economic data:
South Korea's GDP was revised down to 0.5% quarter-over-quarter from 0.6% (expected 0.6%)
Australia's trade deficit narrowed to AUD1.36 billion from AUD1.56 billion (expected deficit of AUD1.51 billion) as exports grew 1.0% month-over-month, while imports were unchanged. Separately, Retail Sales increased 0.4% month-over-month (expected 0.4%; last 0.6%)
In news:
The Bank of Japan voted unanimously to maintain the current policy course, keeping its key rate between 0.0% and 0.1%. However, the central bank lowered its assessment of the housing sector.

Major European indices trade higher across the board. Germany's DAX +0.2%, Great Britain's FTSE +0.3%, and France's CAC +1.0%. Elsewhere, Italy's MIB +1.1% and Spain's IBEX +0.9%
Economic data was limited:
Eurozone Retail PMI slipped to 45.8 from 47.6
Germany's Factory Orders rose 4.6% month-over-month (expected 1.5%; last -3.2%)
French Unemployment Rate ticked up to 10.2% from 10.1%
In news:
The Bank of England kept its key interest rate and purchasing program at their respective 0.5% and GBP375 billion.
The European Central Bank cut its main refinance rate to 0.05% from 0.15%, lowered its deposit facility rate to -0.2% from -0.1%, and cut the marginal lending rate to 0.3% from 0.4%.

6:21 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +2.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +1.00.

6:21 am: [BRIEFING.COM] Nikkei...15,676.18...-52.20...-0.30%. Hang Seng...25,297.92...-20.00...-0.10%.

6:21 am: [BRIEFING.COM] FTSE...6,883.72...+11.00...+0.20%. DAX...9,581.87...-44.60...-0.50%.

Dollar Gains to Yen as Policies Diverge; Asia Stocks Drop

By Mariko Ishikawa, Wes Goodman and Emma O’Brien

The dollar extended gains, with the yen sliding to its weakest level since 2008, as the European Central Bank’s surprise asset-purchase plan underscored diverging economic outlooks before U.S jobs data. Asian stocks retreated with emerging-market currencies.

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index added 0.1 percent by 11:08 a.m. in Tokyo, set for its highest close since July 2013, as the yen weakened to as low as 105.71 per dollar and the euro held near a 14-month low. South Korea’s won fell 0.6 percent and the New Zealand dollar dropped to a six-month low. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped 0.3 percent, while Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures were little changed.

After data showed U.S. service industries grew at the fastest pace in nine years last month, payrolls reports today are expected to signal continued recovery as the Federal Reserve presses on with reductions to its asset purchases. European bonds rallied yesterday as the ECB unexpectedly cut key interest rates and announced a plan to buy privately owned securities, while the Bank of Japan maintained record stimulus. Ukraine’s President Petro Poroshenko voiced “careful optimism” that talks today with pro-Russian rebels will set the course for a cease-fire after more than five months of fighting.

“The trend of the central banks is different,” said Kazuaki Oh’e, a debt salesman at CIBC World Markets Japan Inc. in Tokyo. “The Fed is thinking the next move is not easing but raising” interest rates. The result may be an end to this year’s Treasury market rally, he said. “It’s likely over.”

Yield Gap

The Bloomberg dollar gauge, which tracks the greenback against 10 major peers, climbed 0.7 percent yesterday, its steepest one-day gain since March. The euro was down 0.1 percent to $1.2934 today, after sinking as much as 1.8 percent last session to the weakest level since July 10, 2013. The 18-nation currency weakened against all 16 major currencies tracked by Bloomberg yesterday.

Yields on 10-year bonds from Ireland to Italy dropped to records yesterday. The retreat in European rates saw 10-year U.S. Treasury yields at their highest level versus the U.S.’ Group of Seven counterparts since 2007 yesterday. Treasury notes due in a decade yielded 2.46 percent today, up 0.5 basis point to extend yesterday’s five basis-point advance.

The South Korean won weakened to 1,024.7 per dollar, bringing its weekly drop to 1.1 percent, while the Malaysian ringgit slipped 0.3 percent to 3.1885 a dollar, retreating for the sixth time in seven days. The Thai baht was down 0.2 percent to 32.102 a dollar.

Kiwi Outlook

The kiwi dropped as much as 0.5 percent to 82.70 U.S. cents, its weakest intraday level since Feb. 24. New Zealand Finance Minister Bill English said in an interview today that he expects the currency to fall further as the U.S. economy recovers and a tamer inflation outlook eases pressure on the central bank to continue raising rates.

ECB President Mario Draghi signaled at least 700 billion euros ($906 billion) in fresh aid for the euro-area economy, which probably saw no growth in the second quarter from the first, according to a Bloomberg survey of economists before gross domestic product data due today.

The ECB will “purchase a broad portfolio of simple and transparent securities” and euro-denominated covered bonds, Draghi said in Frankfurt yesterday.

The region’s refinancing rate, marginal lending facility and deposit rate, which was already negative, were cut by 10 basis points, or 0.10 percentage point, the second reduction this year. Euro-area inflation languished at 0.3 percent last month, trailing the ECB’s 2 percent target. Draghi said details of the program will be announced after the bank’s October rate-setting meeting.

Jobs Reports

U.S. data added to signs of a resurgence in the world’s largest economy, where the central bank has been paring back its record stimulus this year.

The Institute for Supply Management’s non-manufacturing index climbed to 59.6 last month, its highest level since August 2005. Jobless claims were little changed last week as an improving economy prompted businesses to retain staff, while a private payrolls report indicated U.S. firms added 204,000 jobs in August, fewer than the 220,000 estimated in a Bloomberg survey of economists.

Today’s monthly Labor Department jobs report will show that U.S. companies boosted payrolls in August by more than 200,000 for a seventh-straight month, according to a separate Bloomberg survey. Nonfarm payrolls saw an addition of 230,000 workers in August, after an increase of 209,000 in July, according to the median of 91 economists’ estimates.

Asia Stocks

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index lost 0.2 percent with the Kospi gauge in Seoul dropping 0.4 percent. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index retreated 0.3 percent and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index fell 0.3 percent.

The MSCI Asia-Pacific measure is on track for a 0.2 percent advance in the week. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index is up 0.7 percent this week, a fourth straight gain, and touched a three-year high on Sept. 4.

The S&P 500 (SPX) ended the U.S. day down 0.2 percent to 1,997.65, its first close below 2,000 since Aug. 28. Energy shares retreated 1.3 percent. Chevron Corp. and Exxon Mobil Corp. decreased more than 0.7 percent. West Texas Intermediate crude was little changed at $94.50 a barrel today, following a 1.1 percent drop last session to the lowest settlement price since January.

To contact the reporters on this story: Mariko Ishikawa in Tokyo at mishikawa9@bloomberg.net; Wes Goodman in Singapore at wgoodman@bloomberg.net; Emma O’Brien in Wellington at eobrien6@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Emma O’Brien at eobrien6@bloomberg.net; Nick Gentle at ngentle2@bloomberg.net

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney, Reuters and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader Image@ http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader

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