Trade Results of M.A. Perry Trader and Founder of
WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
Phone: +1 708 572-4885
Free Chat Room:
http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=164Business Hours: 8am - 5pm est (Mon - Fri)
questions@thestrategylab.com (24/7)
http://twitter.com/wrbtrader (24/7)
Attachment:
080114-wrbtrader-Price-Action-Trading-PnL-Blotter-Profit+1180.00.png [ 175.25 KiB | Viewed 427 times ]
click on the above image to view today's performance verification Price Action Trade Performance for Today: Emini TF ($TF_F) futures @
$1,180.00 dollars or +11.80 points, Emini ES ($ES_F) futures @
$0.00 dollars or +0.00 points, Light Crude Oil CL ($CL_F) futures @
$0.00 dollars or +0.00 points, Gold GC ($GC_F) futures @
$0.00 dollars or +0.00 points and EuroFX 6E ($6E_F) futures @
$0.00 dollars or +0.0000 ticks.
Total Profit @ $1,180.00 dollarsRussell 2000 Emini TF Futures: 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @
The ICE S&P 500 Emini ES Futures: 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @
CMEGroup Light Crude Oil CL (WTI) Futures: 1 tick or 0.01 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @
CMEGroup Gold GC Futures: 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @
CMEGroupEuroFX 6E Futures: 1 tick or 0.0001 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @
CMEGroup In addition, all of my trades were posted real-time in the timestamp ##TheStrategyLab chat room. You can read
today's price action trading information about my trades (e.g. time, price entry, contract size, price exit) as the trade traversed to its completion. Also, sometimes I'll post
real-time trading tips involving WRBs, WRB Hidden GAPs, Key Market Events (KME), Tutorial Chapters 2 & 3, WRB Zones, Reaction Highs/Lows, Contracting Volatility or Expanding Volatility. Its all
archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=133&t=1854 Quote:
If any of my
real-time posted trades are via key concepts discussed in the WRB Analysis
free study guide or the Fading Volatility Breakout (FVB)
free trade signal strategy...I will discuss the reasons (trade strategy) behind those trades
if/when a user of ##TheStrategyLab chat room ask questions about the trades. In contrast, real-time posted trades that are via the
Advance WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 4 - 12 or the
Volatility Trading Report (VTR) trade signal strategies...I discuss the reasons (trade strategy) behind those trades with fee-base clients in a different private chat room that's designated
only for fee-base clients or discuss the strategies with fee-base clients on my Skype contact list.
Also, posted below are direct links to information about my
price action trade methodology and
trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis). I'm primarily a day trader because it suits my
personal lifestyle but I do occasionally swing trade and position trade. Simply, my trade method is applicable for position trading, swing trading and day trading.
##TheStrategyLab Chat Room is
free. Members and I use the chat room to post WRB Analysis commentary, real-time trades and to post anything else related to trading. The chat room helps me tremendously in my own trading because I use it to document (journal) general volatility analysis involving WRB Analysis so that I can easily review at a later date my thoughts as I interacted with the markets...info I can not get from my broker statements. Also, this is
not a signal calling chat room where a head trader tells
you when to buy or sell and I do not have the time/energy/resources to manage a signal calling chat room. Access instructions for chat room @
http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=164 Price Action Analysis via WRB Analysis Tutorials @
http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a
free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @
http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=119&t=718 Trade Signal Strategies via Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @
http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a
free trade signal strategy @
http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our price action trade strategies with support (answering your questions)
prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).
Trading Plan Daily Routine @
http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=244&t=2455 -----------------------------
Market Context Summaries The below summaries by
Bloomberg,
CNNMoney,
Reuters and
Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals,
FED/
ECB/
BOE/
IMF actions or any important global economic events (e.g.
Eurozone,
MarketWatch.com) that had an impact on today's price action in many trading instruments I monitor during the trading day. Simply, I'm a strong believer that key market events causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility resulting in
trade opportunities (swing points and strong continuation price actions) that reach profit targets. Thus, I pay attention to these key market events, intermarket analysis (e.g. Forex EurUsd, EuroFX 6E futures, Gold GC futures, Light Crude Oil (WTI) CL & Brent Oil futures, Eurex DAX futures, Euronext FTSE100 futures, Emini ES futures, Emini TF futures, Treasury ZB futures and U.S. Dollar Index futures) while using WRB Analysis from one trade to the next trade to give me the
market context for price action trading before the appearance of my
technical analysis trade signals. Therefore, I maintain these
archives to allow me to understand what was happening on any given trading day
in the past involving key market events to help better understand my trade decisions (day trading, swing trading, position trading)...something I can
not get from my broker statements alone. Further, most financial websites remove (delete) their archives after a few years to make room for new content. Therefore, I maintain my own archives of the news content so that I have it available for me when financial websites no longer archives their content.
Stocks Finish Tough Week With More Losses Attachment:
080114-Key-Price-Action-Markets.png [ 1.09 MiB | Viewed 426 times ]
click on the above image to view today's price action of key markets NEW YORK (CNNMoney)
Investors can't seem to get relief from the summer heat.
The Dow fell 70 points Friday on what turned out to be a volatile day of trading.
The blue chip index finished the week lower and is now down for the year following Thursday's 317-point drop.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq also slipped Friday. The S&P 500 dropped nearly 3 %this week, and the Nasdaq lost more than 2%.
Still, both indexes are up over 4% for 2014.
Here's what happened.
dow 4
Jobs, jobs, jobs: Employers added 209,000 jobs in July. That was well shy of the 288,000 jobs that were created in June and below the gain of 230,000 jobs predicted by economists polled by CNNMoney .
The weaker-than-expected jobs report could ease fears on Wall Street that the Federal Reserve will hike interest rates early next year.
The government said the unemployment rate ticked up to 6.2% from 6.1%.
"The employment data was not too hot, not too cold. It was just about right in terms of what a skittish market was looking for," said Dave Donabedian, chief investment officer at Atlantic Trust, which manages about $25 billion in assets.
In other economic news, a new ISM report showed U.S. manufacturing activity shifted into a higher gear in July. However, a separate report revealed consumer sentiment dipped in July to the lowest level since March.
Related: Cold War-style tension hits Western companies in RussiaWorld markets slide: European markets fell, following the lead of the U.S on Thursday.
Germany's Dax tumbled on concerns about the impact of escalating tensions with Russia on the region's fragile economy. The EU turned up the heat on Moscow Thursday by including Russia's biggest bank, Sberbank, on its list of sanctions targets.
Societe Generale (SCGLF) dropped 2% after the French bank's second quarter earnings showed business in Russia is suffering. It joins a chorus of Western companies facing problems in Russia.
"There has been large, insistent selling of stocks out of Europe," said Michael Block, chief strategist at Rhino Trading Partners, in a note to clients.
Big movers -- GoPro, LinkedIn, Iliad: GoPro's (GPRO) debut earnings report failed to impress Wall Street's extreme expectations, driving the gadget maker's stock down 15%.
Iliad (ILIAY) dropped 7% in Europe after the French telecom firm made a surprise $15 billion takeover bid for T-Mobile USA (TMUS).
On the other hand, shares of LinkedIn (LNKD, Tech30) popped 12% after the social media company posted better-than-expected quarterly results. Expedia (EXPE) traveled 6% higher on upbeat earnings and a 29% jump in bookings.
Tesla (TSLA) also drove 4% higher ding after Elon Musk's electric car maker reported strong sales and a profit that topped forecasts.
Bally Technologies (BYI) hit the jackpot as Scientific Games (SGMS) agreed to acquire the slot machine maker for $3.3 billion. Bally spiked 30% on the buyout, which also sent Scientific Games climbing 3%.
Procter & Gamble (PG) rallied about 3% after posting a solid earnings beat despite shrinking sales. Investors largely overlooked the consumer products giant's tepid outlook for the year.
Other big-name companies also reported earnings, including Clorox (CLX) and Chevron (CVX).
4:15 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The stock market finished a down week on a cautious note with small caps leading the retreat. The Russell 2000 lost 0.5%, widening its weekly decline to 2.6%, while the S&P 500 shed 0.3%. The benchmark index ended the week lower by 2.7%.
This morning, the market was provided a basis to rebound with the July employment report, which was just right for the policy doves (209K versus Briefing.com consensus 220K). It showed payroll growth that was weaker than expected, average hourly earnings that were flat, and an uptick in the U6 unemployment rate (accounts for underemployed and unemployed workers) to 12.2% from 12.1%.
All of those factors speak in favor of the Federal Reserve not being in a rush to raise the fed funds rate, but the market did not rally on those cues. Instead, the S&P 500 made a brief morning appearance in the green before sliding into negative territory, where it spent the afternoon. The benchmark average was able to climb off its low into the close, but could not return into positive territory.
Three sectors registered gains, while the remaining seven finished lower. In general, countercyclical groups had a decent showing with consumer staples (+0.8%) and utilities (+0.4%) posting gains, while the telecom services sector (-0.9%) ended among the laggards. The largest countercyclical group-health care-settled flat.
Notably, the staples sector finished in the lead thanks to a boost from Procter & Gamble (PG 79.65, +2.33). The Dow component rallied 3.0% after reporting a bottom-line beat on revenue that was a bit below estimates.
Elsewhere, the health care sector received support from large components like Aetna (AET 78.73, +1.20), McKesson (MCK 195.43, +3.57), and WellPoint (WLP 111.00, +1.19). The three gained between 1.1% and 1.9%, while biotechnology lagged. The iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 250.28, -0.55) shed 0.2%.
For its part, the utilities sector staged a rebound after losing 6.9% last month.
On the cyclical side, the materials sector (+0.1%) was the lone advancer thanks to relative strength among miners. The Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX 26.20, +0.29) added 1.1%, while gold futures climbed 0.9% to $1294.60/ozt.
Meanwhile, the daylong weakness among influential sectors like energy (-0.7%), financials (-0.9%), and technology (-0.4%) prevented the market from turning positive. In the financial sector, JPMorgan Chase (JPM 56.48, -1.19) was the worst performer among the majors, falling 2.1%.
Lastly, the tech sector was pressured by top-weighted components like Google (GOOGL 573.60, -5.95), IBM (IBM 189.15, -2.52), and Microsoft (MSFT 42.86, -0.30). Chipmakers, however, held up relatively well. The PHLX Semiconductor Index added 0.4%.
Treasuries rallied through the first half of the session before holding near their highs during the afternoon. The 10-yr note advanced 17 ticks, sending its yield lower by six basis points to 2.50%.
Participation was above average for the second day in a row with nearly 780 million shares changing hands at the NYSE.
Economic data was plentiful with Nonfarm Payrolls, Personal Income/Spending data, Core PCE Prices, the final reading of the Michigan Sentiment survey, ISM Index, and the Construction Spending report:
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Nonfarm payrolls added 209,000 jobs in July after adding an upwardly revised 298,000 (from 288,000) in June, while the Briefing.com consensus expected 220,000 new jobs in July
Private payrolls fared worse, adding only 198,000 jobs in July following a 270,000 increase in June
The consensus expected 225,000 new private jobs in July
Even more disappointing, hourly wages were flat after increasing 0.2% in June and the average workweek remained at 34.5 hours
The unemployment rate ticked up to 6.2% from 6.1%
Personal income increased 0.4% in June after rising by the same amount in May, which matched the Briefing.com consensus
Personal spending also matched estimates with a 0.4% increase in June, up from an upwardly revised 0.3% (from 0.2%) gain in May
The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index increased to 81.8 in the final July reading from 81.3 in the preliminary reading, while the Briefing.com consensus expected an increase to 82.0
The Current Conditions Index was revised up to 97.4 from 97.1
The Expectations Index rose to 71.8 in the final reading from 71.1
The ISM Manufacturing Index increased to 57.1 in July from 55.3 in June, representing the strongest reading since April 2011
The Briefing.com consensus expected the index to increase to 55.9
Construction spending fell 1.8% in June after increasing an upwardly revised 0.8% (from 0.1%) in May, while the Briefing.com consensus expected an increase of 0.3%
Private construction fell 1.0% after increasing 0.4% in May
Residential construction declined 0.3% in June
There is no economic data scheduled to be released on Monday.
S&P 500 +4.2% YTD
Nasdaq Composite +4.2% YTD
Dow Jones Industrial Average -0.5% YTD
Russell 2000 -4.1% YTD
Week in Review: Stocks Cap July With Broad Slide
The stock market began the last week of July on a quiet note with the S&P 500 ending less than a point above its flat line. Like the benchmark index, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (+0.1%) also posted a slim gain, while the Russell 2000 (-0.5%) and Nasdaq Composite (-0.1%) lagged throughout the session. The major averages were awakened from their weekend slumber with an opening retreat that pressured the S&P 500 below its 20-day moving average (1975). Even though the index dipped early, only two sectors-consumer staples (-0.5%) and industrials (-0.5%)-displayed noteworthy weakness that persisted into the close.
On Tuesday, equities ended on a lower note after generally upbeat earnings took the back seat to geopolitical concerns. The S&P 500 (-0.5%) and Nasdaq Composite (-0.1%) settled on their lows, while the Russell 2000 (+0.3%) displayed relative strength. Once again, market participants were focused on quarterly reports in the early going, but geopolitical worries overshadowed the impact of mostly better than expected earnings. Specifically, equities retreated after it was reported that European EU officials have prepared the new set of sanctions against Russia. The imposition of new sanctions may pique concerns about a boomerang effect on the global economy, and Europe in particular, but it is worth noting that the Russian ruble and Market Vectors Russia ETF (RSX) strengthened in reaction to the news. The reports of forthcoming sanctions were followed by afternoon headlines from Washington indicating the Treasury Department has added VTB, the Bank of Moscow, and Russian Agriculture Bank to the sanction list. After the news crossed the wires, the RSX and the ruble dropped to fresh lows, as did the S&P 500.
On Wednesday, the market finished on a mixed note with small caps displaying relative strength. The Nasdaq Composite (+0.5%) and Russell 2000 (+0.4%) registered modest gains, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (-0.2%) and S&P 500 (+0.01%) underperformed. Despite the mixed finish, the key indices traded higher across the board at the start of the session after the advance reading of second quarter GDP surpassed estimates (4.0% versus Briefing.com consensus 3.2%). However, the early strength was short-lived with the S&P 500 sliding into red during the opening 90 minutes of action. One could argue that the inability to rally on a strong data point and better than expected earnings resulted from concerns about a potential fed funds rate hike taking place sooner than expected. To that point, Treasuries spent the session in a steady retreat and finished near their lows. The 10-yr note fell 26 ticks, sending its yield higher by nine basis points to 2.55%.
The stock market punctuated July with a broad-based retreat that sent the S&P 500 lower by 2.0% with all ten sectors ending in the red. The benchmark index posted a monthly decline of 1.5%. After upbeat earnings and economic news failed to spark a rally on Wednesday, Thursday's session invited a wave of profit taking. With the sentiment taking a turn for the worse, a batch of poor quarterly results from a handful of global players contributed to the slide. Samsung kicked things off overnight with below-consensus earnings that sent the stock lower by 3.7% in Seoul. Things did not get much better during the European session with Adidas and Deutsche Lufthansa posting respective earnings-driven losses of 15.4% and 6.4% in Frankfurt. The DAX Index, meanwhile, lost 1.9%.
3:30 pm: [BRIEFING.COM]
Dec gold lifted from its session low of $1281.00 per ounce as the dollar index weakened following this morning's jobs report.
The July employment reading showed that nonfarm payrolls added 209K jobs in July after adding an upwardly revised 298K (from 288K) in June, while the Brieifng.com consensus expected 220K new jobs.
The yellow metal rose as high as $1298.40 per ounce and eventually settled with a 0.9% gain at $1294.60 per ounce. Despite today's strength, gold booked a 0.8% loss for the week.
Sep silver rose to a session high of $20.58 per ounce after coming off its session low of $20.30 per ounce set in early morning pit trade. However, it slipped into negative territory in afternoon action and settled 0.1% lower at $20.38 per ounce, bringing losses for the week to 1.3%.
Sep crude oil traded in the red all day, extending losses for a fifth consecutive session. The energy component fell as low as $97.07 per barrel in morning action and chopped around slightly above that level for the remainder of the session. It eventually settled 0.3% lower at $97.85 per barrel, bringing losses for the week to 4.2%.
Sep natural gas touched a session high of $3.88 per MMBtu in morning floor trade but quickly retreated back into negative territory. It continued to trend lower and settled with a 1.0% loss at $3.80 per MMBtu, cutting gains for the week to 0.5%.
3:00 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 trades lower by three points with one hour remaining in the final session of the week. If the benchmark index ends the trading day near its current level, that would represent a 2.6% decline for the week. Only the Russell 2000 has had a worse showing this week (-2.7%), while the Nasdaq Composite is on pace to finish ahead of the two indices with a loss of 2.2%.
All ten sectors are on track to register weekly losses with energy and industrials both down near 3.7% for the week. Meanwhile, the telecom services sector has had the best showing, but it is also on pace for a lower finish. The countercyclical sector has lost 1.0% since last Friday.
Elsewhere, Treasuries have ticked down from their highs, but continue sporting solid gains. The 10-yr note is higher by half a point with its yield down six basis points at 2.50%.
2:30 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 has worked its way back to the flat line, while the Dow (-0.1%) and Nasdaq (-0.4%) remain in the red.
Market participants received a full batch of economic data today with the July Nonfarm Payrolls report (209K versus Briefing.com consensus 220K) headlining the list of releases. Given today's avalanche of data, next week will be relatively quiet on the economic front.
There is no data on Monday's schedule and Tuesday's economic news will be limited to the June Factory Orders report and the ISM Services Index for July. The trade balance for June will be reported on Wednesday, while Friday will bring preliminary productivity/unit labor costs data for Q2 and the June Wholesale Inventories report.
2:00 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (-0.2%) has trimmed its loss during the past 30 minutes on no particular catalyst. The benchmark index now hovers just below its flat line, while two sectors-materials (+0.2%) and health care (+0.01%)-have joined consumer staples (+1.1%) and utilities (+0.8%) in the green.
The materials sector has been boosted by miners with the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX 26.20, +0.29) trading higher by 1.1%. Similarly, gold futures sport an advance of 0.9% at $1294.80/ozt.
For its part, the health care sector has benefitted from strength among large cap components like Aetna (AET 78.62, +1.09), AmerisourceBergen (ABC 77.27, +0.36), and Cigna (CI 90.95, +0.91), while biotechnology lags. The iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 249.61, -1.22) holds a loss of 0.5%.
1:25 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The July employment report took off some of the edge of the stock market's concerns about rising interest rates, yet the major indices moved out of the gate today in skittish fashion, presumably still shell-shocked by the scope of Thursday's losses. They eventually ran their way back to positive territory, bolstered by the better than expected (and encouraging) ISM Index report for July. The highs for the session were put in just after 10:00 a.m. ET.
One could surmise that the ISM number stirred concerns again about the possibility of the Fed raising rates sooner rather later, yet that argument gets blown out of the water when pitted against the big price gains in the Treasury market at both the front end and back end of the curve, and in the weakness in the US Dollar Index (DXY 81.28, -0.17).
The 10-yr note is up 18 ticks, pushing its yield down to 2.49%, while the 2-yr note is up three ticks, driving its yield down to 0.47%.
What we appear to have then is another day of disappointing price action feeding the move to take some money off the table. Reports that the ISDA ruled Argentina is in a failure-to-pay credit event haven't helped sentiment.
At some point, the stock market might come back around and use the drop in long-term rates, or the sense that it is oversold short term, as a basis to stage a comeback effort. For most of the day, though, it has had the look of a market intent on lowering risk exposure.
1:00 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] At midday, the major averages hover near their lows with small caps pacing the broad retreat. The Russell 2000 holds a loss of 0.9%, while the S&P 500 trades down 0.5% with eight sectors in the red.
The stock market was provided a basis to rebound today with the July employment report (209K versus Briefing.com consensus 220K), which was just right for the policy doves. It showed payroll growth that was weaker than expected, average hourly earnings that were flat, and an uptick in the U6 unemployment rate (accounts for underemployed and unemployed workers) to 12.2% from 12.1%.
All of those factors speak in favor of the Federal Reserve not rushing to raise the fed funds rate, but the market has retreated anyways. After erasing its opening loss, the S&P 500 made a brief appearance in the green, but the lack of concerted sector leadership caused participants to take some money off the table.
Heavily-weighted energy (-1.2%), financials (-1.0%), and technology (-0.8%) sectors are keeping the market pinned to its lows, while only three groups trade ahead of the S&P 500. The materials space (-0.3%) holds a slim loss, whereas countercyclical consumer staples (+0.7%) and utilities (+0.5%) display gains. The consumer staples sector has received support from Procter & Gamble (PG 79.85, +2.53), which trades higher by 3.3% after beating earnings estimates on light revenue.
For its part, the utilities sector has started the month with a rebound after plunging 6.9% in July.
The weakness in equities has been accompanied by a rally in Treasuries that that has pressured the 10-yr yield from an early high at 2.59% to 2.49%, where it currently sits.
Economic data was plentiful with Nonfarm Payrolls, Personal Income/Spending data, Core PCE Prices, the final reading of the Michigan Sentiment survey, ISM Index, and the Construction Spending report:
Nonfarm payrolls added 209,000 jobs in July after adding an upwardly revised 298,000 (from 288,000) in June, while the Briefing.com consensus expected 220,000 new jobs in July
Private payrolls fared worse, adding only 198,000 jobs in July following a 270,000 increase in June
The consensus expected 225,000 new private jobs in July
Even more disappointing, hourly wages were flat after increasing 0.2% in June and the average workweek remained at 34.5 hours
The unemployment rate ticked up to 6.2% from 6.1%
Personal income increased 0.4% in June after rising by the same amount in May, which matched the Briefing.com consensus
Personal spending also matched estimates with a 0.4% increase in June, up from an upwardly revised 0.3% (from 0.2%) gain in May
The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index increased to 81.8 in the final July reading from 81.3 in the preliminary reading, while the Briefing.com consensus expected an increase to 82.0
The Current Conditions Index was revised up to 97.4 from 97.1
The Expectations Index rose to 71.8 in the final reading from 71.1
The ISM Manufacturing Index increased to 57.1 in July from 55.3 in June, representing the strongest reading since April 2011
The Briefing.com consensus expected the index to increase to 55.9
Construction spending fell 1.8% in June after increasing an upwardly revised 0.8% (from 0.1%) in May, while the Briefing.com consensus expected an increase of 0.3%
Private construction fell 1.0% after increasing 0.4% in May
Residential construction declined 0.3% in June
12:30 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (-0.5%) has paused its slide in the 1920 area for the time being. The benchmark index spent the first 90 minutes of action near its flat line, but has been pressured to lows in recent action. There was no particular catalyst that could be cited for the weakness, which suggests the retreat resulted the market's inability to build on a modest gain that was on display shortly after the open.
At this juncture, four of six cyclical sectors trail the broader market, while industrials (-0.5%) and materials (-0.3%) trade a bit ahead of the S&P 500.
Earlier, we mentioned that participants have not shown much demand for volatility protection, but that has changed. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX 17.32, +0.37) is now nearing its highest close since the middle of March.
11:55 am: [BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (-0.7%) has slid to a new session low with dip-buyers showing reluctance to step in amid broad weakness that has only spared two countercyclical sectors-consumer staples (+0.8%) and utilities (+0.3%).
Meanwhile, all six cyclical groups hover in the red with top-weighted technology (-0.8%), financials (-1.2%), and energy (-1.3%) exerting significant pressure. The industrial sector (-0.7%) trades not far behind the broader market, but that has masked the underperformance of transport stocks. The Dow Jones Transportation Average trades down 1.0% with all 20 components in the red.
On the upside, the consumer staples sector continues drawing strength from Procter & Gamble (PG 80.58, +3.26) after the company beat bottom-line estimates on light revenue.
11:30 am: [BRIEFING.COM] The major averages have taken a turn lower since our last update with the S&P 500 now down 0.2%. Small caps, meanwhile, underperform with the Russell 2000 lower by 0.7%.
Interestingly, the small-cap index was in a position of relative strength at the open, but its outperformance could not trigger a sustained rally or improve the overall sentiment. Given its current standing, the index sits at its lowest level since late May.
The recent weakness in equities has coincided with strength in Treasuries. The benchmark 10-yr note is now higher by almost half a point with its yield down five basis points at 2.51%.
However, the retreat has yet to spark a dash for volatility protection with the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX 16.81, -0.14) trading little changed.
10:55 am: [BRIEFING.COM] The major averages continue drifting near their flat lines after two failed attempts to put together a rally. Fittingly, five sectors hold losses, while the other five display gains.
Overall, countercyclical sectors continue showing strength with consumer staples, health care, and utilities up between 0.3% and 1.1%, while the telecom services sector lags (-0.2%).
On the cyclical side, the industrial sector (+0.1%) outperforms slightly, while heavily-weighted technology (-0.2%), energy (-0.6%), and financials (-0.4%) hover near their lows.
While the stock market has not gone anywhere over the past 90 minutes, Treasuries have built on their gains. The 10-yr note is now higher by 12 ticks with its yield down four basis points at 2.52%.
10:35 am: [BRIEFING.COM]
Coffee futures are up big again on Brazil concerns. I noted yesterday that it was over 5% higher at $1.92/lb. Today, coffee is +6.1% at $2.07/lb.
Crude oil remains in the red and is down significantly in recent sessions. Wednesday's bearish inventory data helped to extend losses this week
Since a recent high on June 20, crude oil is down about $8.50/barrel
Today, Sept crude oil is -0.7% at $97.46/barrel
Natural gas was in the red earlier, but has since recovered and is now flat at $3.84/MMbtu
Gold and silver are higher this morning
Dec gold is +1% at $1295.20/oz, Sept silver is +0.4% at $20.49/oz
Sept copper is -0.1 at $3.23/lb
Dollar index is -0.2% at 81.32
10:00 am: [BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 trades higher by 0.2%.
The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report for July was revised up to 81.8 from 81.3 in the final reading, while the Briefing.com consensus expected the reading to be revised up to 82.0.
Separately, June construction spending decreased 1.8% month-over-month, while the Briefing.com consensus expected an increase of 0.3%.
Also of note, the ISM Index for July rose to 57.1 from 55.3, while the Briefing.com consensus expected the reading to improve to 55.9.
9:40 am: [BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (+0.1%) has climbed off its opening low, while the Russell 2000 (+0.3%) has shown relative strength in the early going.
All four countercyclical sectors display early gains with the utilities sector (+1.0%) in the lead. The group is an early outperformer after losing 6.9% in July. On the cyclical side, the consumer discretionary sector (+0.2%) sports a modest gain, while most of the remaining sectors hover near their flat lines. The energy sector is an exception, trading lower by 0.6% amid weakness in crude oil. The energy component holds a loss of 0.9% at $97.25/bbl.
Treasuries are near their best levels of the day with the 10-yr yield down two basis points at 2.54%.
9:14 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -1.70. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -2.00. The stock market is on track for a modestly lower open as futures on the S&P 500 trade two points below fair value. Index futures displayed larger losses not long ago, but were lifted off their lows by the reaction to the Nonfarm Payrolls report for July. The jobs report missed expectations (209,000 versus Briefing.com consensus 220,000), but futures rallied anyways, which was likely related to the lack of growth in hourly earnings (0.0% versus Briefing.com consensus 0.2%).
Recall that the strong GDP report for Q2 led to chatter suggesting the Fed may be falling behind the curve with regards to timing the first rate hike in the face of strong growth. However, the lack of earnings growth is likely to return the benefit of the doubt to the policymakers at the Fed.
Treasuries rallied off their lows with the 10-yr yield sliding from just under 2.59% to 2.53%.
The final reading of the Michigan Sentiment survey for July (consensus 82.0) will cross the wires at 9:55 ET, while the July ISM Index (consensus 55.9) and June Construction Spending (expected 0.3%) will both be reported at 10:00 ET.
9:00 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -2.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -3.50. The S&P 500 futures trade three points below fair value.
It was a sea of red across Asia as all of the major bourses ended in the red following yesterday's carnage on Wall Street.
In economic data:
China's Manufacturing PMI rose to 51.7 from 51.0 (expected 51.4), while HSBC Manufacturing PMI ticked down to 51.7 from 52.0 (expected 52.0)
Japan's Manufacturing PMI slipped to 50.5 from 50.8 (expected 50.8)
South Korea's CPI ticked up 0.1% month-over-month (expected 0.2%, previous -0.1%), while the year-over-year reading increased 1.6%, as expected. Separately, HSBC Manufacturing PMI improved to 49.3 from 48.4 and the trade surplus narrowed to $2.52 billion from $5.50 billion (expected surplus of $2.74 billion)
Australia's PPI ticked down 0.1% quarter-over-quarter (expected 0.7%, previous 0.9%), while AIG Manufacturing Index rose to 50.7 from 48.9
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Japan's Nikkei fell 0.6% from six-month highs despite Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda defending the central bank's upbeat economic outlook amid a slowdown in the data. Electronics maker Sony outperformed, up 4.7%, following its better than expected earnings report.
Hong Kong's Hang Seng lost 0.9%, sliding off three and a half-year highs. Property names were hit as traders booked profits following the recent rally with Cheung Kong off 4.7% to lead to the downside.
China's Shanghai Composite fell 0.7% as brokerage shares weighed. Citic Securities fell 2.5% and Haitong Securities lost 2.3%.
Major European indices trade lower across the board with Germany's DAX (-1.5%) pacing the slide. Spanish and Italian bonds are on the defensive with Spain's 10-yr yield higher by five basis points at 2.56%, while Italy's benchmark yield is higher by eight basis points at 2.66%
Participants received several data points:
Eurozone Manufacturing PMI ticked down to 51.8 from 51.9 (expected 51.9)
Germany's Manufacturing PMI fell to 52.4 from 52.9 (expected 52.9)
Great Britain's Manufacturing PMI slipped to 55.4 from 57.2 (consensus 57.2)
French Manufacturing PMI inched up to 47.8 from 47.6 (expected 47.6)
Italy's Manufacturing PMI fell to 51.9 from 52.6 (consensus 52.6)
Spain's Manufacturing PMI fell to 53.9 from 54.6 (expected 54.7)
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In France, the CAC holds a loss of 0.7%. Construction company Vinci is the weakest performer, down 8.2%, after warning about its upcoming results. Steelmaker ArcelorMittal trades down 6.8% after missing earnings estimates.
Great Britain's FTSE is lower by 0.9%. United Utilities Group lags with a loss of 3.4% after being downgraded at Credit Suisse. Smith & Nephew outperforms with a gain of 2.2% after reporting in-line results.
Germany's DAX trades down 1.5%. Heavyweights Adidas, Bayer, and Merck underperform with losses between 2.2% and 2.7%.
8:33 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -1.10. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -2.30. The S&P 500 futures trade one point below fair value.
July nonfarm payrolls came in at 209,000, while the Briefing.com consensus expected a reading of 220,000. Nonfarm private payrolls added 198,000 against the 225,000 expected by the consensus. The unemployment rate rose to 6.2% from 6.1%, while the consensus expected no change.
Hourly earnings were unchanged, while the Briefing.com consensus expected an increase of 0.2%. The average workweek was reported at 34.5, which was in line with expectations.
June personal income increased 0.4%, which matched the Briefing.com consensus. Meanwhile, personal spending rose 0.4%, which also matched the consensus.
Separately, core PCE prices rose 0.1%, while the Briefing.com consensus expected an uptick of 0.2%.
7:56 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -9.10. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -19.50. U.S. equity futures trade sharply lower amid cautions action overseas. The S&P 500 futures trade nine points below fair value with some volatility expected around 8:30 ET when the Nonfarm Payrolls report crosses the wires. The Briefing.com consensus expects the report to reveal the addition of 220,000 payrolls in July.
Reviewing overnight developments:
Asian markets ended on a lower note. Japan's Nikkei -0.6%, China's Shanghai Composite -0.7%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng -0.9%
In economic data:
China's Manufacturing PMI rose to 51.7 from 51.0 (expected 51.4), while HSBC Manufacturing PMI ticked down to 51.7 from 52.0 (expected 52.0)
Japan's Manufacturing PMI slipped to 50.5 from 50.8 (expected 50.8)
South Korea's CPI ticked up 0.1% month-over-month (expected 0.2%, previous -0.1%), while the year-over-year reading increased 1.6%, as expected. Separately, HSBC Manufacturing PMI improved to 49.3 from 48.4 and the trade surplus narrowed to $2.52 billion from $5.50 billion (expected surplus of $2.74 billion)
Australia's PPI ticked down 0.1% quarter-over-quarter (expected 0.7%, previous 0.9%), while AIG Manufacturing Index rose to 50.7 from 48.9
In news:
According to press reports, Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has considered making changes to his cabinet as early as the first week of September
Major European indices trade lower across the board. France's CAC -0.9%, Great Britain's FTSE -1.2%, and Germany's DAX -1.7%. Elsewhere, Italy's MIB -0.2% and Spain's IBEX -1.5%
Participants received several data points:
Eurozone Manufacturing PMI ticked down to 51.8 from 51.9 (expected 51.9)
Germany's Manufacturing PMI fell to 52.4 from 52.9 (expected 52.9)
Great Britain's Manufacturing PMI slipped to 55.4 from 57.2 (consensus 57.2)
French Manufacturing PMI inched up to 47.8 from 47.6 (expected 47.6)
Italy's Manufacturing PMI fell to 51.9 from 52.6 (consensus 52.6)
Spain's Manufacturing PMI fell to 53.9 from 54.6 (expected 54.7)
In news:
Spanish and Italian bonds are on the defensive with Spain's 10-yr yield higher by five basis points at 2.56%, while Italy's benchmark yield is higher by eight basis points at 2.66%
In U.S. corporate news:
ArcelorMittal (MT 14.27, -0.94): -6.2% after missing on earnings and revenue
Bally Technologies (BYI 81.00, +20.83): +34.6% after agreeing to be acquired by Scientific Games (SGMS 8.54, 0.00) for $83.80/share, representing a 38.4% premium to yesterday's closing price
Expedia (EXPE 82.00, +2.58): +3.4% after beating earnings and revenue estimates
GoPro (GPRO 43.30, -4.67): -9.7% despite beating estimates and guiding ahead of the Capital IQ consensus
Procter & Gamble (PG 78.75, +1.43): +1.9% following its bottom-line beat on below-consensus revenue
Tesla (TSLA 221.76, -1.54): -0.7% despite beating earnings and revenue expectations
In addition to the 8:30 ET release of the Nonfarm Payrolls report for July (Briefing.com consensus 220K), Personal Income/Spending (consensus 0.4%) data and Core PCE Prices (expected 0.2%) will also be reported at 8:30 ET, while the final reading of the Michigan Sentiment survey for July (consensus 82.0) will cross the wires at 9:55 ET. Finally, the July ISM Index (consensus 55.9) and June Construction Spending (expected 0.3%) will both be reported at 10:00 ET.
7:16 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -11.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -26.50.
7:16 am: [BRIEFING.COM] Nikkei...15523.11...-97.70...-0.60%. Hang Seng...24532.43...-224.40...-0.90%.
7:16 am: [BRIEFING.COM] FTSE...6631.26...-98.90...-1.50%. DAX...9219.30...-188.20...-2.00%.
Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney, Reuters and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of
WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader @ http://stocktwits.com/wrbtraderhttp://www.thestrategylab.com Phone: +1 708 572-4885
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