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 Post subject: March 18th Tuesday Trade Results - Profit $1280.00
PostPosted: Tue Mar 18, 2014 10:22 pm 
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Joined: Sat Jan 10, 2009 2:06 pm
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Location: Canada
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Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
Phone: +1 708 572-4885
Free Chat Room: http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=164
Business Hours: 8am - 5pm est (Mon - Fri)
questions@thestrategylab.com (24/7)
http://twitter.com/wrbtrader (24/7)

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click on the above image to view today's performance verification

Price Action Trade Performance for Today: Emini TF ($TF_F) futures @ $1,280.00 dollars or +12.80 points, Emini ES ($ES_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.00 points, Light Crude Oil CL ($CL_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.00 points, Gold GC ($GC_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.00 points and EuroFX 6E ($6E_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.0000 ticks. Total Profit @ $1,280.00 dollars

Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures: 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures: 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup
Light Crude Oil CL (WTI) Futures: 1 tick or 0.01 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup
Gold GC Futures: 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup
EuroFX 6E Futures: 1 tick or 0.0001 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup

In addition, all of my trades were posted real-time in the chat room. You can read today's chat room logs for details about each one of my trades via price action trading from entry to exit (e.g. time, price, contract size) along with price action commentary as the trade traversed to its completion...all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=128&t=1747

Also, posted below are direct links to information about my price action trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis). I'm primarily a day trader because it suits my personal lifestyle but I do occasionally swing trade and position trade. Simply, my trade method is applicable for position trading, swing trading and day trading.

Image ##TheStrategyLab Chat Room is free. Members and I use the chat room to post WRB Analysis commentary, real-time trades and to post anything else related to trading. The chat room helps me tremendously in my own trading because I use it to document (journal) my thought process from trade to trade so that I can easily review at a later date my thoughts as I interacted with the markets...info I can not get from my broker statements. Also, this is not a signal calling chat room where a head trader tells you when to buy or sell. If you join the chat room and then you do not ask any questions about WRB Analysis in your own trading or you do not document (journal) your own thoughts from trade to trade...the chat room will not be useful to you. Chat room access instructions @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=164

Image Price Action Analysis via WRB Analysis Tutorials @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=119&t=718

Image Trade Signal Strategies via Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our price action trade strategies with support (answering your questions) prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Image Trading Plan Daily Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=234&t=2257

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Market Context Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, CNNMoney, Reuters and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED/ECB/BOE/IMF actions or any important global economic events (e.g. Eurozone, MarketWatch.com) that had an impact on today's price action in many trading instruments I monitor during the trading day. Simply, I'm a strong believer that key market events causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility resulting in trade opportunities (swing points and strong continuation price actions) that reach profit targets. Thus, I pay attention to these key market events, intermarket analysis (e.g. Forex EurUsd, EuroFX 6E futures, Gold GC futures, Light Crude Oil (WTI) CL & Brent Oil futures, Eurex DAX futures, Euronext FTSE100 futures, Emini ES futures, Emini TF futures, Treasury ZB futures and U.S. Dollar Index futures) while using WRB Analysis from one trade to the next trade to give me the market context for price action trading before the appearance of my technical analysis trade signals. Therefore, I maintain these archives to allow me to understand what was happening on any given trading day in the past involving key market events to help better understand my trade decisions (day trading, swing trading, position trading)...something I can not get from my broker statements alone.

Stocks Up For 2nd Straight Day

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click on the above image to view today's price action of key markets

NEW YORK (CNNMoney)
Stocks closed higher Tuesday as tensions in Crimea seemed to fade and investors started to focus on what the Federal Reserve may have up its sleeve.

The Dow and S&P 500 were each up more than 0.5% while the Nasdaq surged more than 1%. Investors are hoping for bullish signs from the Fed, which will conclude its latest policy meeting on Wednesday afternoon. Janet Yellen, the new Fed chair, will give her first press conference after the meeting.

It is widely expected that Yellen will continue to trim, or taper, the fed's stimulus program by another $10 billion, to $55 billion a month. The markets will also listen closely to any possible changes to the Fed's guidance on interest rate changes.

The Fed will have two new pieces of data to look at as it begins its meeting. Consumer prices edged up by 0.1% in February. Food prices jumped 0.4% - the largest increase in nearly 3 years. But inflation is not a huge problem for the Fed or economy right now.

And there were mixed signs about housing. Construction of new homes fell by 0.2% in February, but building permits, a sign of future construction, rose 7.7%.

Related: Vote in March Stock Market Mania Sweet 16

The Dow snapped a five day losing streak on Monday. The S&P 500 is now back in positive territory for the year, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq remains the top performer of the major indexes.

But investors still have one eye on the situation in Ukraine. It will likely continue to dominate the headlines, putting further strains on Russia's relationship with the U.S. and Europe. Russia is not backing away from plans to annex Ukraine's Crimea region despite targeted sanctions announced Monday.

Related: Fear & Greed Index idling in neutral

On the corporate front, shares of GameStop (GME, Fortune 500) fell after Wal-Mart (WMT, Fortune 500)said it was getting into the used video game sales market.

One trader on StockTwits felt the drop was justified.

"$GME If you were a primary dealer of used cars and a large company said they were going to sell used cars too, do u think your margins would rise?" asked DanDaMan.
GameStop falls on Walmart fears
GameStop falls on Walmart fears

Shares of Microsoft (MSFT, Fortune 500) rose to a 14-year high on expectations that Microsoft may soon announce a version of its Office software for Apple's (AAPL, Fortune 500) iPad. Microsoft was the top gainer in CNNMoney's Tech 30 index.

"How much is Office for iPad worth? Microsoft's stock market value up about $14 billion this morning!" quipped ampressman.

Related: CNNMoney's Tech 30

Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG)was moving higher after RBC Capital Markets analysts said in a note that it has "increasing confidence in the company's ability to sustain its recent momentum."

But contrarianspeculator questioned today's climb. "$CMG: today's jump amounts to 20% more than CMG is forecasted to earn in all of 2014 -stock getting ahead of its fundamentals?"

The sentiment was echoed by StrayTrader. "In this bizarre market, a share of $AAPL that earns $40/yr EPS is $529, while a share of $CMG w/$10/yr EPS is $592 because it has growth .. umm to $40?"

Shares of FutureFuel (FF)surged after the biofuels maker reported better than expected earnings. One trader was excited about the stock's move to more than $20 a share.

"$FF Bought this last year at 11, been holding, and will keep holding long term," said maetrader.

But goprules was more critical. "$FF way too much hype on earnings. Much ado about nothing."

Also, shares of Hertz (HTZ, Fortune 500) rose after it announced earnings and said it would spin off its equipment rental business to pay off debt.

Oracle (ORCL, Fortune 500) fell in after-hours trading after reporting fiscal third quarter revenue that were slightly less than expected. Adobe Systems (ADBE) reported fiscal first quarter revenue and earnings that topped forecasts.

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4:25 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The major averages finished the Tuesday session with solid gains, but outside of a few pockets of considerable relative strength, most sectors could be classified as reluctant participants in the daylong rally. Small caps led the way with the Russell 2000 climbing 1.5% while the S&P 500 advanced 0.7% with nine sectors posting gains.

This morning, equity indices were on track for a lower start to the session, but that changed in a hurry when comments from Russian President Vladimir Putin began making the rounds. Although Mr. Putin did not provide any groundbreaking insight, European markets and equity futures rallied when he said Russia does not want to see a break-up of Ukraine.

The comments also gave a boost to risk sentiment in the foreign exchange market, sending the dollar/yen pair from a morning low of 101.33 to 101.80. Interestingly, the yen weakness was short-lived as the currency pair slid to a fresh session low (101.29) over the next five hours while equity indices built on their opening gains thanks to the outperformance of three heavily-weighted sectors-energy (+0.8%), health care (+1.2%), and technology (+1.4%)-that account for just a shade over 41.0% of the entire S&P 500.

The energy sector drew strength from Dow component Chevron (CVX 116.24, +1.17), which gained 1.0% after being added to the US Focus List at Credit Suisse, while also receiving a boost from the 1.7% gain in crude oil ($99.69/bbl).

Elsewhere, the health care sector was underpinned by companies specializing in biotechnology. The iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 262.22, +6.75) surged 2.6%, which also factored into the outperformance of the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite.

Speaking of the Nasdaq, the index got a big boost from shares of Microsoft (MSFT 39.55, +1.50), which rallied 3.9% in reaction to widespread reports indicating the company will release its Office suite for the Apple (AAPL 531.40, +4.66) iPad.

Strikingly, outside of the three influential sectors, the remaining groups could never catch up with the broader market. Most notably, the financial sector (+0.5%) lagged throughout the session, ending behind most of the remaining growth-sensitive groups.

On the countercyclical side, health care was the only outperformer while consumer staples (+0.2%), utilities (-0.2%), and telecom services (+0.66%) lagged.

Treasuries erased their overnight gains in reaction to the comments from Vladimir Putin, but spent the session in a climb towards the early highs. The benchmark 10-yr yield ended at 2.67% after starting the New York session just north of 2.69%.

Despite the mixed sentiment signals emanating from the foreign exchange, Treasury, and stock markets, participants did not show much demand for volatility protection as indicated by the 7.2% decline in the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX 14.52, -1.12).

Trading volume was on the light side for the second day in a row with only 574 million shares changing hands at the NYSE floor.

Today's economic data included the February Housing Starts and Building Permits report and February CPI: Housing starts fell 0.2% in February to 907,000 from an upwardly revised 909,000 (from 880,000) in January. The Briefing.com consensus expected housing starts to increase to 915,000. After two months where starts surpassed one million, construction levels in January and February returned to their April - October 2013 pace. There wasn't much evidence of significant shocks from winter weather conditions. Building Permits rose to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 1,018,000, which was better than the Briefing.com consensus estimate of 955,000.

Consumer prices edged up 0.1% in February after increasing 0.2% in January. The Briefing.com consensus expected the CPI to increase 0.2%. Energy costs, which provided a sizable boost to the PPI, fell 0.5% in February. A 1.7% decline in gasoline prices offset a 3.6% increase in natural gas costs. Food price growth, which had been very low and stable for the past several months, shot up 0.5% in February. That was the largest one-month increase since September 2011. Most of the food components rose more than their long-term trends. That included a 1.2% increase in meats, poultry, fish, and eggs. Excluding food and energy, core CPI increased 0.1% for a third consecutive month in February. That was exactly what the consensus expected.

Tomorrow, the weekly MBA Mortgage Index will be released at 7:00 ET while the fourth quarter current account balance (Briefing.com consensus -$87.60 billion) will be announced at 8:30 ET. Also of note, the Federal Open Market Committee will conclude its two-day meeting with the latest policy statement scheduled to be released at 14:00 ET. The statement will be followed by Janet Yellen's first press conference as Fed Chair, scheduled to begin at 14:30 ET.

Russell 2000 +3.8% YTD
Nasdaq Composite +3.8% YTD
S&P 500 +1.3% YTD
Dow Jones Industrial Average -1.5% YTD

3:30 pm: [BRIEFING.COM]

Precious metals traded lower today following comments from Vladimir Putin, who said Russia does not want to see a break-up of Ukraine and that it wants a partnership with the West. In addition, investors await tomorrow's FOMC decision and Janet Yellen's first press conference as Fed Chief.
Apr gold extended yesterday's losses, falling to a session low of $1351.10 per ounce in early morning action. Despite trending slightly higher for the remainder of the session, the yellow metal settled with a 1.0% loss at $1359.00 per ounce.
May silver fell as low as $20.63 per ounce in early morning pit trade and brushed a session high of $20.92 per ounce. It eventually settled at $20.85 per ounce, or 2.0% lower.
Apr natural gas chopped around in negative territory between $4.45 and $4.50 per MMBtu. Unable to find buying support, it settled with a 1.5% loss at $4.46 per MMBtu.
Apr crude oil, on the other hand, rose alongside the equities market. It lifted from its session low of $98.16 per barrel set in early morning floor trade and trended higher for the remainder of the session. It settled 1.7% higher at $99.69 per barrel, just below its session high of $99.78 per barrel.

3:05 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 trades higher by 0.7% with one hour remaining in the session. Following today's closing bell, investors will receive just a handful of quarterly reports with Adobe (ADBE 68.75, +0.58) and Oracle (ORCL 38.77, +0.55) headlining the list.

The Capital IQ consensus expects Adobe to report year-over-year earnings decay of 28.6% on $973.09 million in revenue while Oracle is expected to show year-over-year bottom-line growth of 7.7% on revenue of $9.36 billion.

Tomorrow morning, investors will receive noteworthy reports from FedEx (FDX 138.41, +0.83), General Mills (GIS 50.78, +0.35), and KB Home (KBH 17.59, +0.32).

2:30 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] Equity indices continue holding their recent levels with the S&P 500 trading higher by 0.7%.

Sector standing hasn't changed much throughout the session as energy (+0.9%), health care (+1.2%), and technology (+1.3%) trade ahead of the benchmark index while the remaining seven groups lag.

The utilities sector (-0.1%) is the weakest group of the day, but continues holding its year-to-date gain of 7.4%, which puts it atop this year's leaderboard. The health care sector is the second-best performer so far in 2014 (+7.3%).

2:00 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] Recent action saw the Nasdaq (+1.2%) and S&P 500 (+0.7%) push to fresh session highs while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (+0.6%) remains below its best level of the session.

The price-weighted index trails the other indices as four heavily-weighted components-Boeing (BA 124.60, -0.82), Procter & Gamble (PG 79.70, -0.14), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ 93.83, -0.10), and McDonald's (MCD 97.33, -0.27)-hover in the red.

On the upside, Microsoft (MSFT 39.58, +1.53) is the leading index member, but its big 4.0% gain has had a limited impact on the index given the relatively low share price.

1:25 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] Some deja vu today in the market action as there was a big move up in early action followed by a modest dip from those morning highs and then lateral consolidation in a tight range.

How things get resolved may ultimately hinge on the behavior of the dollar-yen pair, which has marched to the beat of a different drum today. That pair is off its lows (now 101.40), but is still trading much closer to its low today (101.29) than its high around 101.85 reached in overnight trade.

It is a move that doesn't necessarily fit with the risk-on demeanor of the stock market. For that matter, neither do the modest gains in the Treasury market where the 10-yr note is up five ticks, leaving its yield at 2.675%.

While intermarket dynamics get sorted out, some go-to trades in the stock market are offering some broad support, namely the outperformance of the biotech stocks and large-cap technology issues. The iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 260.54, +5.07) is up 2.0% while the Nasdaq 100 is up 0.9% versus 0.6% for the S&P 500.

12:55 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] At midday, the Nasdaq (+0.9%) and S&P 500 (+0.6%) hover near their best levels of the session while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (+0.5%) has spent the better part of the past three hours in a slow retreat from its late-morning high.

Equity indices began the trading day on an upbeat note after index futures surged off their overnight lows in reaction to comments from Vladimir Putin, who said Russia does not want to see a break-up of Ukraine.

Although the remarks gave a boost to risk assets, only the stock market has extended its morning advance. Meanwhile, the Japanese yen, which weakened following the comments, has climbed to a fresh high, pressuring the dollar/yen pair below the 101.35 level. Similarly, Treasuries erased their losses in reaction to Mr. Putin's comments, but have been strengthening since 10:30 ET. Currently, the benchmark 10-yr yield is lower by three basis points at 2.67%.

It is worth mentioning that the advance in the Japanese yen (dollar/yen weakness) accelerated after Ukraine's acting Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk said the conflict with Russia has moved from a political one to that of a military nature. This took place shortly after Russian forces reportedly stormed a Ukrainian base in Crimea, wounding one of the officers. Furthermore, Mr. Yatsenyuk has asked his Defense Minister to set up a meeting with representatives from Great Britain, Russia, and the United States.

Strikingly, the headlines have had little effect on the S&P 500, which only saw a brief two-point slip. Although the heavily-weighted financial sector (+0.2%) has lagged throughout the day, the broader market remains supported by the relative strength of energy (+0.9%), health care (+0.9%), and technology (+1.1%).

Notably, the tech sector leads amid significant strength in Microsoft (MSFT 39.46, +1.41). The Dow component trades higher by 3.7% amid reports the company's Office suite will be made available for Apple's (AAPL 528.99, +2.25) iPad. The relative strength of technology has given a boost to the Nasdaq, which has received support from biotechnology. The iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 260.86, +5.39) trades higher by 2.1%.

Despite the mixed signals, participants are not showing much demand for volatility protection as indicated by the 8.0% decline in the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX 14.39, -1.25).

Today's economic data included the February Housing Starts and Building Permits report and February CPI:

Housing starts fell 0.2% in February to 907,000 from an upwardly revised 909,000 (from 880,000) in January. The Briefing.com consensus expected housing starts to increase to 915,000. After two months where starts surpassed one million, construction levels in January and February returned to their April - October 2013 pace. There wasn't much evidence of significant shocks from winter weather conditions. Building Permits rose to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 1,018,000, which was better than the Briefing.com consensus estimate of 955,000.

Consumer prices edged up 0.1% in February after increasing 0.2% in January. The Briefing.com consensus expected the CPI to increase 0.2%. Energy costs, which provided a sizable boost to the PPI, fell 0.5% in February. A 1.7% decline in gasoline prices offset a 3.6% increase in natural gas costs. Food price growth, which had been very low and stable for the past several months, shot up 0.5% in February. That was the largest one-month increase since September 2011. Most of the food components rose more than their long-term trends. That included a 1.2% increase in meats, poultry, fish, and eggs. Excluding food and energy, core CPI increased 0.1% for a third consecutive month in February. That was exactly what the consensus expected.

12:30 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] Recent trade saw some mixed action across the major averages as the Nasdaq (+1.0%) pushed to a new high while the S&P 500 (+0.6%) returned to its best level of the session. For its part, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (+0.5%) has continued its retreat from a session high that was notched at 10:30 ET.

Interestingly, the stock market remains an area of strength while other markets are showing some signs of cautious sentiment. The yen has continued strengthening, pushing the dollar/yen pair to a new low in the 101.30 area while Treasuries have spent the past two hours inching back towards their overnight highs. The benchmark 10-yr yield is now down to 2.67%.

Despite the mixed signals, participants are not showing much demand for volatility protection as indicated by the 8.1% decline in the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX 14.37, -1.27).

12:00 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 has trimmed its gain to 0.5% amid headlines indicating Ukraine's acting Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk said the conflict with Russia has moved from a political one to that of a military nature. This comes after Russian forces reportedly stormed a Ukrainian base in Crimea, wounding one of the officers. Furthermore, Mr. Yatsenyuk has asked his Defense Minister to set up a meeting with representatives from Great Britain, Russia, and the United States.

Although equities continue to hold the bulk of their gains, the same cannot be said for the risk pairs in the foreign exchange market, where the Japanese yen is back near its best level of the session. The dollar/yen pair hovers at 101.38, not far from its morning low of 101.33.

Elsewhere, Treasuries hold modest gains with the 10-yr yield down two basis points at 2.68%.

11:30 am: [BRIEFING.COM] The major averages remain near their recent levels with the S&P 500 trading higher by 0.6%.

Interestingly, of the six cyclical sectors, only two groups-energy (+0.9%) and technology (+1.0%)-trade ahead of the broader market while the remaining growth-sensitive sectors display gains between 0.3% and 0.6%.

Notably, the financial sector (+0.3%) has struggled to keep up with the broader market since the start of the session, and that remains the case at this juncture. Including today's gain, the financial sector is higher by 1.4% so far this week versus a 1.6% gain for the S&P 500.

Also of note, Treasuries have seen some inflows over the past 45 minutes, pressuring the benchmark yield to 2.68%.

11:00 am: [BRIEFING.COM] Equity indices have retreated from their highs amid headlines indicating Russian troops have stormed a Ukrainian base in Crimea. In addition to exerting some pressure on equity indices, the news contributed to modest yen strength that sent the dollar/yen pair to 101.40 from 101.60.

The Nasdaq (+0.8%) remains in the lead while the S&P 500 (+0.5%) follows a bit behind.

As mentioned earlier, the Nasdaq owes its outperformance to relative strength among technology and biotech. Shares of Microsoft (MSFT 39.64, +1.60), which trade higher by 4.2%, have made a significant contribution to the outperformance of technology amid reports the company's Office suite will be made available for Apple's (AAPL 528.30, +1.56) iPad.

Elsewhere, biotechnology has built on its earlier gain. The iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 260.60, +5.13) trades up 2.0% while the broader health care sector is higher by 0.9%.

Also of note, the financial sector remains among the laggards, trading up 0.2%.

10:35 am: [BRIEFING.COM]

Gold and silver futures sold off early this morning and remains to trade near session lows
Apr gold is now -1.3% at $1355/oz, while May silver is -2.3% at $20.79/oz
Natural gas futures have been in the red all morning as well. Apr NG is -1.2% at $4.48/MMBtu
Copper futures rose as high as $2.99/lb early in the overnight session, but is now +0.3% at $2.96/lb
Crude oil futures found some buyers. The Apr contract extended gains and just hit a new session high of $98.95/barrel
Apr crude is currently +0.8% at $98.84/barrel

9:55 am: [BRIEFING.COM] Equity indices have extended to new highs with the S&P 500 pushing its gain to 0.4%. The Nasdaq, meanwhile, trades up 0.6% as technology (+0.6%) and biotechnology outperform. The iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 259.05, +3.58) is higher by 1.4%, which is contributing to the relative strength of the health care sector (+0.7%).

While technology and health care are showing early strength, another heavily-weighted sector-financials (+0.2%)-trails the broader market. Citigroup (C 47.67, -0.06) holds a slim loss while other major financials sport modest gains.

Treasuries remain little changed with the 10-yr yield at 2.69%.

9:40 am: [BRIEFING.COM] The major averages began the trading day on a modestly higher note with the Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 displaying gains between 0.2% and 0.3%.

Eight of ten sectors trade in the green with health care (+0.5%) in the lead. Meanwhile, the remaining countercyclical groups are among the early laggards. Consumer staples (-0.1%) and utilities (-0.2%) hover in the red while the telecom services sector trades right near its flat line.

On the cyclical side, industrials (+0.3%) are in the lead with help from transports (Dow Jones Transportation Average (+0.5%) while the materials sector (+0.1%) is the weakest performer among growth-sensitive sectors. Miners are factoring into the weakness as Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX 26.35, -0.45) trades down 1.7% while gold futures sport a 1.4% loss at $1353.50/ozt.

9:13 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +3.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +4.20. The stock market is on track for a modestly higher open as indicated by the S&P 500 futures, which trade nearly four points above fair value. Index futures (along with European indices) hovered in the red until about 7:20 ET when comments from Russian President Vladimir Putin began crossing the wires. Although Mr. Putin did not share anything groundbreaking, markets rallied after he said Russia does not want to see a break-up of Ukraine.

Interestingly, the surge in equities was accompanied by a wave of yen weakness versus other major currencies (euro/yen, dollar/yen, pound/yen strength), but the Japanese currency has already regained the bulk of its losses. The dollar/yen pair, which traded near 101.37 ahead of the comments, jumped to 101.75. The pair has spent the past hour in a steady retreat and now trades in the 101.40 area again.

The dollar/yen pair will remain in focus during the session as continued yen strength has the potential to pressure yen-based carry trades, which in turn could weigh on U.S. equities.

In today's data, housing starts fell 0.2% in February to 907,000 from an upwardly revised 909,000 (from 880,000) in January. The Briefing.com consensus expected housing starts to increase to 915,000. After two months where starts surpassed one million, construction levels in January and February returned to their April - October 2013 pace. There isn't much evidence of significant shocks from winter weather conditions.

Separately, inflation trends remained weak with CPI edging up 0.1% against the 0.2% increase expected by the Briefing.com consensus. Excluding food and energy, core CPI increased 0.1% for a third consecutive month in February, matching the consensus estimate.

Treasuries are little changed with the benchmark 10-yr yield at 2.69%.

8:57 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +4.70. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +7.50. The S&P 500 futures trade almost five points above fair value.

Most Asian markets finished in the green as trade was buoyed by yesterday's strong gains on Wall Street. In economic data, the pace of appreciation in China's House Price Index slowed to 8.7% year-over-year (9.6% previous) with prices seeing month-over-month gains in 57 of 70 cities. Also of note, China and New Zealand will begin Chinese yuan/New Zealand dollar direct trading tomorrow.

The latest Reserve Bank of Australia minutes were released overnight, with members noting the Aussie dollar remains too strong.

Japan's Nikkei climbed 0.9%, gaining for the first time in five days. Heavyweight Softbank added another 3.2% as momentum carried over from the weekend news indicating Alibaba will IPO in the United States.
Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose 0.5%, snapping a four-day skid. Internet gaming company Tencent Holdings jumped 5.8% as trades moved into the beaten down name following last week's slide that came on reports Beijing was looking into online payments.
China's Shanghai Composite ticked up 0.1%, marking its third advance in four days. Property shares lagged with Poly Real Estate and China Vanke giving up 3.1% and 1.6%, respectively.

Major European indices hover near their highs after surging out of the red. The sharp move followed comments from Vladimir Putin, who said Russia does not want to see a break-up of Ukraine. Italy's MIB is leading the charge with a 1.2% gain as it hovers at a three-year high.

Economic data was scarce. Germany's ZEW Economic Sentiment fell to 46.6 from 55.7 (53.0 expected) while the Current Conditions component improved to 51.3 from 50.0 (52.0 forecast). Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment worsened to 61.5 from 68.5 (67.3 forecast). Italian trade surplus narrowed to EUR370 million from EUR3.61 billion (EUR2.47 billion forecast).

Also of note, the German Constitutional Court confirmed the legality of the European Stability Mechanism.

Great Britain's FTSE is higher by 0.3% with Coca-Cola Hellenic Bottling Company in the lead. The consumer stock is higher by 2.4%. Mining stocks are mixed, but Fresnillo and Randgold Resources appear among the laggards. The two names hold respective losses of 4.4% and 2.0%.
Germany's DAX trades up 0.7% with support from financials. Commerzbank is higher by 1.8% and Deutsche Bank trades up 1.0%. Deutsche Telekom is the weakest index component, trading lower by 0.2%.
In France, the CAC holds an advance of 1.0% with Renault in the lead. The carmaker is higher by 3.9% after announcing better-than-expected sales. Steelmaker ArcelorMittal lags with a loss of 0.7%.
Italy's MIB is higher by 1.2% with financials in the lead. BMPS and Unicredit trade higher by 4.4% and 1.0%, respectively.

8:34 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +5.10. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +8.50. The S&P 500 futures trade five points above fair value.

Housing Starts for February decreased to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 907,000, which was worse than the Briefing.com consensus estimate of 915,000. Building Permits rose to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 1,018,000, which was better than the Briefing.com consensus estimate of 955,000.

Separately, total CPI for February increased 0.1% versus the Briefing.com consensus estimate that called for a 0.2% increase. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, was also up 0.1%. That was in-line with the Briefing.com consensus estimate.

8:00 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +5.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +8.50. U.S equity futures hover near their highs following comments from Russian President Vladimir Putin, who said Russia does not want to see the break-up of Ukraine. The S&P 500 futures, which traded in the red ahead of the remarks, hover five points above fair value.

Reviewing overnight developments:

Asian markets ended higher. China's Shanghai Composite +0.1%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng +0.5%, and Japan's Nikkei +0.9%.
Economic data was limited:
China's House Prices were up 8.7% year-over-year (prior +9.6%) and Foreign Direct Investment was up 10.4% (prior 16.1%)
In news:
The minutes from the latest policy meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia indicated the committee members believed that there were specific signs pointing to low interest rates providing support to economic activity.
Major European indices hold gains after erasing their losses following the aforementioned comments from Vladimir Putin. Great Britain's FTSE +0.3%, Germany's DAX +0.6%, and France's CAC +0.8%.
Economic data was scarce:
Germany's ZEW Economic Sentiment fell to 46.6 from 55.7 (53.0 expected). The Current Conditions component improved to 51.3 from 50.0 (52.0 forecast)
Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment worsened to 61.5 from 68.5 (67.3 forecast)
Italian trade surplus narrowed to EUR370 million from EUR3.61 billion (EUR2.47 billion forecast)
Among news of note:
The German Constitutional Court confirmed the legality of the European Stability Mechanism.

In U.S. corporate news:

Hertz Global (HTZ 27.50, +0.28): +1.0% after announcing the separation of its equipment rental business. The company also reported its quarterly results, missing on earnings and revenue while guiding fiscal-year 2014 revenue in-line with analyst estimates.
FactSet (FDS 102.00, -2.54): -2.4% despite beating earnings estimates. The company also announced it has acquired the remaining 40% interest in Matrix Data.

The Housing Starts and Building Permits report for February will be announced at 8:30 a.m. ET along with the CPI report for February.

6:55 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -2.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -6.00.

6:54 am: [BRIEFING.COM] Nikkei...14411.27...+133.60...+0.90%. Hang Seng...21583.50...+109.60...+0.50%.

6:54 am: [BRIEFING.COM] FTSE...6555.24...-13.10...-0.20%. DAX...9128.74...-52.20...-0.50%.

Dollar Near Four-Month Low Against Peers Amid Fed Guidance Bets

By Masaki Kondo and Mariko Ishikawa Mar 18, 2014 10:05 PM ET

The dollar was near a four-month low against its peers amid bets the Federal Reserve will drop its jobless-rate threshold today and adopt qualitative guidance for signaling when it will raise interest rates.

Traders’ expectations of future currency swings remained near the lowest since 2012 after President Vladimir Putin said Russia isn’t seeking to split Ukraine further following the secession of its Crimea region. The yuan starts to trade directly against New Zealand’s dollar today. China’s currency completed the biggest three-day loss yesterday since at least 2007 amid concern financial risk is increasing.

“I don’t think there’s even a single person in the world who still thinks the Fed’s jobless-rate guideline is effective,” said Masato Yanagiya, the head of foreign exchange and money trading in New York at Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp. “There appear to be more people expecting the Fed to be a little bit more dovish on rates.”

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, which tracks the U.S. currency against its 10 major counterparts, was little changed at 1,012.00 as of 11:01 a.m. in Tokyo. It touched 1,011.35 on March 17, the lowest since Nov. 1.

The greenback traded at 101.34 yen after depreciating 0.3 percent to 101.44 yesterday. It was at $1.3930 per euro following a 0.1 percent decline to $1.3934. Europe’s common currency weakened 0.1 percent to 141.17 yen.

Deutsche Bank AG’s index based on three-month implied volatility on nine major pairs was at 7.41 percent after falling to 7.14 percent on March 12, the lowest since December 2012.

Putin’s Speech

Putin yesterday told Russian lawmakers not to believe “those who scare you with Russia, who yell that Crimea will be followed by other regions.” While he said Russia doesn’t plan to further split up Ukraine, Putin underscored his right to defend Russian speakers in Ukraine’s east.

Crimea voted on March 16 to join Russia, which should sign a treaty accepting the peninsula’s accession, according to an order signed by Putin and published on a government website. The U.S. and European Union imposed asset freezes and travel bans yesterday on members of Putin’s inner circle and Crimean leaders.

“I don’t see much enthusiasm from the West for sanctions as they are limited to individuals,” said Sumitomo Mitsui Banking’s Yanagiya. “Markets are noticing that the West pretends to be taking action but actually is trying to fudge the situation.”

The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX) for U.S. shares, known as the VIX or the investor fear gauge, posted a two-day drop of 19 percent yesterday, the most since Feb. 7.

Market Fear

Putin’s speech soothed “market fears (for now) that the crisis will escalate further,” Spiros Papadopoulos, a Melbourne-based senior economist at National Australia Bank Ltd. wrote in a research note. “It gave investors the chance to start focusing on the U.S. FOMC meeting.”

The Federal Open Market Committee will conclude its first meeting today after Janet Yellen succeeded Ben S. Bernanke as chair last month. The central bank will probably scrap its 6.5 percent jobless-rate threshold in favor of qualitative guidance for signaling when it will consider raising the benchmark interest rate, according to a Bloomberg News survey of economists. The unemployment rate was at 6.7 percent in February, near the lowest since October 2008.

The yuan weakened 0.2 percent to 6.1920 per dollar yesterday. The currency declined 0.9 percent since March 13, the biggest three-day drop in data going back to April 2007.

Zhejiang Xingrun Real Estate Co., a closely held company with 3.5 billion yuan ($565 million) of debt, collapsed and its largest shareholder was detained, government officials familiar with the matter said on March 17. The failure came less than two weeks after the first bond default by a Chinese company, Shanghai Chaori Solar Energy Science & Technology Co.

China’s central bank set the yuan reference rate at 5.2899 per New Zealand dollar today. The exchange rate in Shanghai is allowed to move by as much as 3 percent on either side of the fixing rate.

To contact the reporters on this story: Masaki Kondo in Singapore at mkondo3@bloomberg.net; Mariko Ishikawa in Tokyo at mishikawa9@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Garfield Reynolds at greynolds1@bloomberg.net

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney, Reuters and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader Image@ http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader

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