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 Post subject: March 17th Monday Trade Results - Loss $160.00
PostPosted: Tue Mar 18, 2014 6:08 am 
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Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
Phone: +1 708 572-4885
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click on the above image to view today's performance verification

Price Action Trade Performance for Today: Emini TF ($TF_F) futures @ ($160.00) dollars or -1.60 points, Emini ES ($ES_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.00 points, Light Crude Oil CL ($CL_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.00 points, Gold GC ($GC_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.00 points and EuroFX 6E ($6E_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.0000 ticks. Total Loss @ ($160.00) dollars

Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures: 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures: 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup
Light Crude Oil CL (WTI) Futures: 1 tick or 0.01 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup
Gold GC Futures: 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup
EuroFX 6E Futures: 1 tick or 0.0001 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup

In addition, all of my trades were posted real-time in the chat room. You can read today's chat room logs for details about each one of my trades via price action trading from entry to exit (e.g. time, price, contract size) along with price action commentary as the trade traversed to its completion...all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=128&t=1746

Also, posted below are direct links to information about my price action trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis). I'm primarily a day trader because it suits my personal lifestyle but I do occasionally swing trade and position trade. Simply, my trade method is applicable for position trading, swing trading and day trading.

Image ##TheStrategyLab Chat Room is free. Members and I use the chat room to post WRB Analysis commentary, real-time trades and to post anything else related to trading. The chat room helps me tremendously in my own trading because I use it to document (journal) my thought process from trade to trade so that I can easily review at a later date my thoughts as I interacted with the markets...info I can not get from my broker statements. Also, this is not a signal calling chat room where a head trader tells you when to buy or sell. If you join the chat room and then you do not ask any questions about WRB Analysis in your own trading or you do not document (journal) your own thoughts from trade to trade...the chat room will not be useful to you. Chat room access instructions @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=164

Image Price Action Analysis via WRB Analysis Tutorials @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=119&t=718

Image Trade Signal Strategies via Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our price action trade strategies with support (answering your questions) prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Image Trading Plan Daily Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=234&t=2257

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Market Context Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, CNNMoney, Reuters and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED/ECB/BOE/IMF actions or any important global economic events (e.g. Eurozone, MarketWatch.com) that had an impact on today's price action in many trading instruments I monitor during the trading day. Simply, I'm a strong believer that key market events causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility resulting in trade opportunities (swing points and strong continuation price actions) that reach profit targets. Thus, I pay attention to these key market events, intermarket analysis (e.g. Forex EurUsd, EuroFX 6E futures, Gold GC futures, Light Crude Oil (WTI) CL & Brent Oil futures, Eurex DAX futures, Euronext FTSE100 futures, Emini ES futures, Emini TF futures, Treasury ZB futures and U.S. Dollar Index futures) while using WRB Analysis from one trade to the next trade to give me the market context for price action trading before the appearance of my technical analysis trade signals. Therefore, I maintain these archives to allow me to understand what was happening on any given trading day in the past involving key market events to help better understand my trade decisions (day trading, swing trading, position trading)...something I can not get from my broker statements alone.

Dow Rises 180 Points, Snaps Losing Streak

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click on the above image to view today's price action of key markets

NEW YORK (CNNMoney)
Stocks jumped Monday even as the West imposed sanctions on Russia over the crisis in Ukraine.

The Dow rose 178 points, or more than 1%, and snapped a five day losing streak. The S&P 500 gained 1% and Nasdaq advanced 0.8%.

Initial results show Crimeans who voted in a Sunday referendum overwhelmingly supported the idea of breaking from Ukraine to join Russia. The results were expected -- and the West maintained the referendum was illegal. Moscow strongly backed the vote.

EU officials on Monday agreed to sanctions on 21 individuals that include both travel bans and asset freezes. There are worries that sanctions risk escalating a trade war that would hit the global economy.

"The referendum outcome was widely expected and so did not yield a sustained response from investors," explained Ilya Spivak, a currency analyst at DailyFX. "Monitoring follow-on theatrics will be important in gauging further market moving potential."

Russian markets, which have been slammed so far this year by the rising tensions with the West over Ukraine, also showed signs of stabilizing. The main European markets all closed higher, while Asian markets ended mixed.

On the corporate front, some tech stocks got a boost from their early investments in some hotly anticipated initial public offerings.

Sina (SINA) shares bounced after the Chinese media conglomerate's Weibo subsidiary filed to go public Friday. Beijing-based Weibo, with over 61 million users as of December, is considered the Twitter (TWTR) of China.

And Yahoo (YHOO, Fortune 500) shares jumped 4% Monday after Chinese internet giant Alibaba said over the weekend that it plans to go public in the U.S. Yahoo! owns a stake in Alibaba, a company which has been compared to Amazon (AMZN, Fortune 500) and eBay (EBAY, Fortune 500) and is expected to raise as much as $15 billion.

Sina and Yahoo were the biggest gainers on CNNMoney's Tech 30 Index Monday. Several traders were excited about what the Alibaba news meant for Yahoo.

"$YHOO smart investment in Alibaba," said StockTwits user desitrader100.

"Alibaba IPO has YHOO mkt value EXTREMELY low and compelling," echoed Congostockchat.

But another trader was less enthusiastic.

"What could go wrong w/ a giant China conglomerate we really know nothing about?...$YHOO," quipped stocktwitsjohn.

StockTwits trader TrendHunter thought Sina was also benefiting from the news that China's central bank would further loosen its hold over yuan trading. The move marks another step in the government's push to open up its economy and markets. The Shanghai Composite jumped by 1% Monday.

"$SINA...loosen of yuan looks to be having an effect," he said.

Keurig Green Mountain (GMCR) shares popped on the announcement that the company will join the S&P 500.

Hertz (HTZ, Fortune 500) spiked almost 5% after rumors that the company plans to spinoff it's equipment rental business.

Shares of Sears (SHLD, Fortune 500) rose after the struggling retailer's board approved the spinoff of its Lands' End clothing line.

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4:20 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] All of the fear and loathing last week about the Sunday referendum in Crimea was set aside today. Stock markets in Europe and the US rallied, not because there was a de-escalation of the standoff in Ukraine, but because there has yet to be an escalation of the standoff that would threaten global economic growth.

As expected, Crimeans voted overwhelmingly in favor (95.5% of votes cast) of joining the Russian Federation. As expected, the outcome of the referendum was not accepted as valid by President Obama and EU leaders. Still, there were two points of relief that sparked a short-covering rally on Monday:

President Obama made a brief speech today to discuss a signed executive order that freezes the assets and imposes travel bans on a small group of advisors and allies of Vladimir Putin and only warned that more sanctions would be forthcoming if Russia continued to push a provocative stance in Ukraine. Things have the potential to get more serious, but from the market's standpoint, it hasn't been given reason yet in the aftermath of the referendum to fear a worst-case scenario of economic sanctions being handed down that would impede global GDP growth.

The latter consideration ignited a short-covering rally in European stock markets that carried over to the US. Gains here were fast-paced off the open as the Dow Jones Industrial Average sported a 205-point gain a little more than 30 minutes after the opening bell rang.

The early rush of buying activity was helped along by a positive showing out of China's stock market (+1.0%), which responded favorably to news of a new urbanization plan. Separately, there were reports that the People's Bank of China would expand the yuan's daily trading band to 2% from 1%. In the event of further yuan weakness, that would bode well for the country's exporters.

Basically, then, last week's main points of concern -- Ukraine and China -- were minimized, if only for a day. To be sure, plenty of questions remain about China's growth prospects and shadow banking system, as well as the path Russia will follow in Ukraine.

The gains in the US were broad-based. Every stock in the Dow Jones Industrial Average ended higher and so did every sector in the S&P 500. From a broader perspective, there wasn't any true weakness on Monday. Rather, weakness was couched in terms of which sectors were up the least.

Gains for the major indices ranged from 0.6% for the Russell 2000 to 1.1% for the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

The stock market was underpinned throughout the day by quality leadership from some of its most heavily-weighted sectors. That included the technology (+1.3%), industrials (+1.3%), financial (+1.0%), and health care (+0.9%) sectors. The utilities sector (+0.6%) trailed all other sectors, but it still made a respectable showing, particularly with interest rates rising at the back end of the Treasury yield curve.

Some of the weakness there followed an encouraging report that industrial production increased 0.6% in February, bolstered by a 0.8% jump in manufacturing production. The February strength came on the heels of a 0.2% decline in industrial production in January.

Separately, the Empire Manufacturing Index for March was slightly better than expected with a 5.6 reading (Briefing.com consensus 5.4). A number above zero denotes expansion. The NAHB Housing Market index, however, still reflected declining builder confidence with a reading of 47 for March. That was up from 46 in February but below the Briefing.com consensus estimate that called for a jump to 50.0, which is the dividing line between rising and declining confidence.

Despite today's nice-sized gains for the major indices, participation in the move was unequivocally light. Just 593 mln shares traded at the NYSE versus a recent average of 706 mln shares. This was a tacit sign that today's move wasn't so much a relief rally in unbridled form as it was a short-covering move to account for a negative development that has yet to live up to its advance, fear-based billing.

Tuesday's economic calendar will feature the Housing Starts (Briefing.com consensus 915,000) and Building Permits (Briefing.com consensus 955,000) report for February, as well as the CPI report for February. The Briefing.com consensus calls for total CPI and core CPI to be up 0.2% and 0.1%, respectively. After Tuesday's close, Oracle (ORCL 38.22, +0.62) and Adobe Systems (ADBE 68.17, +0.98) will report their quarterly earnings results.

Dow Jones Industrial Average -1.95% YTD
Nasdaq Composite +2.5% YTD
S&P 500 +0.6% YTD
Russell 2000 +2.1% YTD
S&P Midcap 400 Index +2.3% YTD

3:30 pm: [BRIEFING.COM]

Apr gold fell for the first time in six sessions despite a slightly weaker dollar index. The yellow metal rose to a session high of $1382.90 per ounce in morning floor trade but gave up the gain as it slipped to a session low of $1370.00 per ounce. It spent afternoon action trading just above that level and settled with a 0.4% loss at $1373.10 per ounce.
May silver brushed a session high of $21.44 per ounce in morning action but quickly fell back into the red. It settled 0.7% lower at $21.27 per ounce, slightly above its session low of $21.23 per ounce.
Apr crude oil fell for the first time in three sessions as investors reacted to relatively limited sanctions imposed by the West against Russia following the completion of Crimea's referendum with no escalation of violence. 95.5% voted in favor of the region joining Russia. The energy component retreated from its session high of $98.69 per barrel and brushed a session low of $97.37 per barrel. It eventually settled at $98.05 per barrel, or 0.9% lower.
Apr natural gas, on the other hand, spent its entire floor session in the black, trading as high as $4.59 per MMBtu in early morning action. It spent the remainder of the session trading slightly above the $4.50 per MMBtu level and settled with a 2.5% gain at $4.53 per MMBtu.

2:55 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] No real change in the underlying action. The Dow continues to lead all of the major indices with a 1.1% gain, yet one knows it is a pretty good day when the "worst-performing" of the major indices is up 0.7%. Currently, the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 are tied in that respect.

Similarly, sector weakness today isn't a matter of true weakness, but rather it is a case of which sector is up the least. The utilities sector (+0.5%) is bringing up the rear at the moment, yet it has still performed admirably considering long-term rates have been rising today.

The 10-yr note yield has risen five basis points to 2.70%. It would be remiss not to add, however, that the yield on the 10-yr note closed out 2013 at 3.04%, so the benchmark note is still sitting on some nice gains this year.

NYSE volume currently totals 320 mln shares versus 368 mln shares at this same point on Friday.

2:25 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The activity in the market today is not unlike what has been seen a lot lately. That is, big moves are made early, a lateral move in a tight range then kicks in for a good part of the remaining session before there is some volatility in the final 30 minutes.

Today, the big move early was up. We are currently in the sideways phase, so the remaining mystery is whether there will be any fireworks or fizzles in the last 30 minutes.

Given the attention to the Crimea referendum today, we would note that Briefing.com's In Play group is noting that it is seeing headlines that say Vladimir Putin has signed an order recognizing Crimea's sovereignty. No big surprise there given his stance all along, but it does underscore that the diplomatic standoff didn't end with the referendum.

Interestingly, the Treasury market has continued to fade as the strength in the stock market has persisted through the afternoon. The 10-yr note is now down nine ticks with its yield pushing up to 2.689% from Friday's cash settlement of 2.65%.

2:00 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The stock market has settled in to a fairly narrow trading range over the past few hours. It would probably be a stretch, though, to say it has settled down.

The Ukraine situation is unsettled. The FOMC meets this week. A ruling will be handed down by Germany's top court on the country's legal ability to join the European Stability Mechanism. The bank stress test results will be released on Thursday. And there is more housing market data on tap with the Housing Starts and Existing Home Sales reports due later this week. And that's just a handful of happenings that are known.

The potential for increased volatility looms large, as has already been seen this year in some of the roller-coaster action of the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX 15.79, -2.03).

The FOMC meeting is the key event of the week. The Fed is widely expected to cut its asset purchases by another $10 bln to $55 bln per month, but participants are anxiously awaiting to hear if there is a change in the Fed's forward guidance.

1:30 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] Off the highs but nowhere near where the day started. That is the standing of the major indices as the afternoon trading session continues.

Every sector continues to be a positive contributor today, although some haven't been as game as others. The energy sector (+0.3%) is the biggest laggard today, held back by softness in some of the exploration companies like Devon Energy (DVN 62.52, -0.22), Apache (APA 79.06, -0.17), and Chesapeake Energy (CHK 24.71, -0.32), and a dip in crude prices ($97.69/bbl, -$1.18).

The technology sector (+1.4%) continues to pace the way for the broader market, led by big-cap stocks and the outperformance of the biotech group. The iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 256.77, +2.90) is up 1.2%.

1:00 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The closely-watched referendum in Crimea on Sunday went as expected. The vote to be annexed to Russia showed a huge inclination (95.5% of votes cast) to join the Russian Federation. Remarkably, equity markets, which looked unnerved about the referendum going into the weekend, rallied sharply after the referendum.

The positive response was most pronounced in Europe, which got slammed last week due to Ukraine worries and the specter of hard-hitting economic sanctions being imposed on Russia in the wake of the referendum. Thus far, however, Russia has been hit with kid gloves, creating a sense that a worst-case economic scenario might not unfold after all. That belief, and the recognition that military force has yet to be used, engendered a relief rally -- or really more of a short-covering move -- that has been seen across the western world.

In a brief appearance, President Obama discussed an executive order he signed that imposes an asset freeze and travel bans on certain individuals considered to have been instrumental in interfering with Ukraine sovereignty. He warned further sanctions would be forthcoming if Russia continued to push a provocative stance in Ukraine.

Nevertheless, the market looks resigned to believe it is still an approach of more talk than actual action that would harm global economic growth.

Germany's DAX Index surged 1.4% after declining 3.2% last week and set the pace for European bourses, many of which gained at least 1.0% on Monday.

Asia was more of a mixed bag, but notably, China's Shanghai Composite tacked on 1.0% after the government put forward a new urbanization plan that included an infrastructure plank to expand the country's transportation network. Separately, the People's Bank of China announced the yuan's daily trading band will expand to 2% from 1%. A further weakening in the yuan would bode well for the country's exporters.

The early sense of aplomb in Europe about the Crimean referendum, China's outperformance, and an encouraging industrial production report for February set the stage for a positive open for the US market. It did not disappoint.

A little more than 30 minutes after the opening bell, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 205 points. The fast-paced move suggested short-covering activity was playing an instrumental role in the advance. However, the stock market has managed to hold the bulk of its gains as the session has progressed on the back of quality leadership.

The technology, industrial, health care, and financial sectors are all outperforming the market. Their relative strength has helped keep selling efforts in check and has been interpreted as a good sign in terms of market sentiment.

Every Dow component is sporting a gain at this juncture, with the highest-priced components among the very best performers. Visa (V 223.46, +2.69), IBM (IBM 185.80, +3.59), and Goldman Sachs (GS 167.19, +1.84) have led the way for the price-weighted average.

Today's economic data had a generally positive bent to it. First, the Empire Manufacturing Index surprised on the upside with a reading of 5.6 for March (Briefing.com consensus 5.4) versus 4.5 in February. Industrial production, meanwhile, jumped 0.6% in February (Briefing.com consensus 0.1%), led by a nice-sized 0.8% gain in the manufacturing sector, and capacity utilization edged up to 78.8% (briefing.com consensus 78.5%) from 78.5%.

The lone disappointment was the NAHB Housing Market Index for March. It checked in at 47. That was up a bit from the prior reading of 46.0, but below the Briefing.com consensus estimate of 50 and indicative of declining confidence among homebuilders.

NYSE volume remains relatively light with 242 mln shares traded so far versus 278 mln at the same point on Friday when just 628 mln shares traded at the NYSE.

12:25 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] While short-covering activity played a big part behind the opening gains, sellers have been unable to have their way with the market in the aftermath of that early rush of buying interest. All three major indices are closing in on their best levels of the day again without any news catalysts for the latest uptick.

The quality leadership we referenced in our prior remark has been a stabilizing, and encouraging, influence for today's market participants. To that end, the volume at the NYSE isn't particularly heavy. The current pace of 216 mln shares is running only slightly ahead of Friday's pace when just 628 mln shares total were traded at the NYSE.

The gains are nice to see for any investor who is long the market, but the limited volume does validate the idea that there isn't as much of a relief rally over Crimea today as there is a short-covering move.

12:00 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The major indices are off their highs, but overall, there is some good leadership today that has kept things looking pretty good. By that, we mean some of the heaviest-weighted sectors in the S&P 500 are outperforming.

The technology sector (+1.2%) is the biggest gainer to this point, followed by the industrials (+1.1%), health care (+1.0%), and financial (+0.8%) sectors.

The financial sector will be in focus this week for a couple of reasons. First, it has been one of the best-performing sectors this month. And secondly, the Federal Reserve is going to release the results of the latest bank stress tests this Thursday. Most banks are anticipated to get the blessing for capital allocation plans that include increased share buybacks and dividend payments.

Bank of America (BAC 17.11, +0.31) is the best-performing of the major banks today, up 1.9%.

11:30 am: [BRIEFING.COM] The indices have had a mostly sideways progression over the past hour or so, but they have run into some selling interest.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (+0.9%) is the winning standout so far among the major indices and it doesn't take much to see why.

All 30 components are trading with a gain at the moment, but it is the Dow's highest-priced components that are showing some of the biggest moves. Visa (222.88, +2.11), IBM (IBM 185.28, +3.07), Goldman Sachs (GS 167.67, +2.32), 3M (MMM 131.98, +2.15), and Boeing (BA 125.15, +2.04) are leading the show. That makes a distinct difference since the Dow is a price-weighted average versus the S&P 500 which is a market-cap weighted average.

Separately, the 10-yr Treasury note is down four ticks, pushing its yield up to 2.67%.

10:55 am: [BRIEFING.COM] The major indices have faded from their best levels of the morning that saw the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 205 points at its high. The pullback is not surprising given the pretext that the opening rally was spurred by short-covering activity.

President Obama just concluded a brief speech to discuss an executive order he signed to impose asset freezes and travel bans on certain individuals identified as having ties to fomenting the move to annex Crimea to Russia. He also warned that further sanctions would be forthcoming if Russia continues to push a provocative stance in Ukraine.

Strikingly, the major indices saw a bit of a bounce after the president concluded his remarks, thinking perhaps that a soft line is still being followed on the use of sanctions. To be sure, asset freezes on certain individuals isn't going to ignite fears about a broader economic slowdown for the EU that would result from an economic sanction war between Russia and the West.

Every sector in the S&P 500 is still trading higher, but all have moved back a bit from their earlier highs; meanwhile, the defensive-oriented utilities sector (+0.4%) has moved up over the last hour.

10:35 am: [BRIEFING.COM]

Commodities are mixed today with the dollar index now in the red, following a morning sell off, gold and silver almost flat, oil lower and nat gas higher
Natural gas futures are showing nice gains today and is the best performing commodity so far in the session
Apr natural gas futures are now +2.67% at $4.54/MMBtu
Apr crude oil is weak this morning and is now -0.3% at $98.55/barrel
Copper futures are pulling back from its session high, but remain modestly higher. The Apr contract is now +0.2% at $2.96/lb
Apr gold is +0.1% at $1379.70/oz and, while May silver is -0.2% at $21.37/oz.

10:00 am: [BRIEFING.COM] The squeeze is on today and we don't just mean Russia's incursion in Crimea. Short sellers are getting broadsided in early action as global equity markets handle the Crimean vote in favor of being annexed to Russia with a sense of aplomb (at least it seems that way). We suspect some of the initial buying interest will fade since matters in Ukraine remain far from settled.

For now, though, there is a measure of relief that military force has not been part of the Ukraine equation even though it remains a constant headline threat.

Not surprisingly, the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX 15.62, -2.20) is getting hammered as the stock market takes a rose-colored view for now of the events in Ukraine. Every sector in the S&P 500 is trading higher with the defensive-oriented utilities (+0.1%) and telecom services (+0.4%) sectors bringing up the rear.

Separately, the February NAHB Housing Market Index rose to 47 from 46 while the Briefing.com consensus expected the reading to be 50.0.

9:40 am: [BRIEFING.COM] The stock market has gotten off to a big start as expected. The major indices are up across the board in what is difficult to describe fully as a relief trade. It's probably more of a short-covering rally.

Crimea's referendum vote went as expected, which is to say Crimea is in favor of being annexed to Russia. Now, the West will have to respond to save diplomatic face. The unknown right now is just what that response will be. Judging by the nice-sized gains in European markets, there appears to be a presumption that any forthcoming sanctions won't be hard-hitting from an economic standpoint (at least not initially).

The early gains are being paced by the economically-sensitive industrials (+1.2%), financial (+1.0%), technology (+1.0%), and materials (+0.9%) sectors.

9:18 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +10.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +24.50. Just reported, February industrial production increased 0.6%, which was above the 0.1% increase expected by the Briefing.com consensus. Industrial production for January was revised up to show a 0.2% decline versus an originally reported decline of 0.3%. Separately, capacity utilization hit 78.8% while the Briefing.com consensus called for a reading of 78.5%.

8:58 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +8.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +20.00. S&P 500 futures trade seven points above fair value. Trade has taken the results of Crimea's referendum in stride as approximately 93% of the vote was in favor of the region joining Russia. Western leaders have said they do not recognize the outcome of the vote and are now likely to announce economic sanctions on Russia.

Markets finished mixed across Asia. The People's Bank of China widened its trading band to +/- 2% (+/-1% previous) above or below the officially set midpoint. Hong Kong's unemployment rate held at 3.1%, as expected. Singapore's trade surplus widened to SGD4.29 bln (SGD3.97 bln previous).

Japan's Nikkei (-0.4%) slumped to its lowest level in six weeks. Heavyweight Softbank outperformed, surging 4.9% on reports its affiliate, Alibaba, announced it will go public in the United States.
Hong Kong's Hang Seng (-0.3%) slipped to a five-week lows. Property stocks lagged as New World Development sank 5.6% and China Overseas Land & Investment gave up 2.1%.
China's Shanghai Composite (+1.0%) rallied on Beijing's announcement its plans to speed up urbanization. Infrastructure and property names saw solid gains with Anhui Conch Cement adding 2.6% and China Vanke tacking on 3.1% to lead their respective sectors higher.

The major European bourses trade higher across the board. Peripheral bourses lead the way with Spain's IBEX (+1.0%) and Italy's MIB (+0.9%) out front. Eurozone CPI was released this morning, posting a cooler than expected 0.7% (0.8% expected).

Britain's FTSE is firm, up 0.4%. Miners lead the way with Anglo American and Glencore Xstrata both holding gains of 2.4%.
Germany's DAX trades higher by 0.7%. RWE is up 1.4% after announcing the sale of its Dea oil and gas unit for $7.1 bln.
France's CAC sports a 0.6% gain. Financials outperform with BNP Paribas and Credit Agricole both up 1.0%.

8:32 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +7.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +19.00. The Empire Manufacturing Survey for March registered a reading of 5.6, which was up from the prior month's reading of 4.5. Economists polled by Briefing.com expected the survey to improve to 5.4.

8:08 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +8.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +21.80. U.S equity futures are pointing to a higher open with foreign markets so far handling the (expected) news well that Crimea voted 95.5% in favor of being annexed to Russia. The next steps in terms of international response remain uncertain, but the current bias would suggest there is a presumption that initial sanctions won't be hard-hitting economically so as to allow more time for a diplomatic resolution.

Reviewing overnight developments:

Asian markets ended somewhat mixed. Japan's Nikkei -0.4%; Hong Kong's Hang Seng -0.3%; China's Shanghai Composite +1.0%; Australia's All Ordinaries -0.2%.
Economic data was limited:
Hong Kong's unemployment rate held steady at 3.1%.
In news:
The People's Bank of China announced the yuan's daily trading band will expand to 2% from 1%
The Chinese government outlined a new urbanization plan that will include an expansion of transportation networks and authorization for local governments to issue bonds directly

Major European indices are trading higher. Germany's DAX +0.7%; France's CAAC 40 +0.7%; England's FTSE 100 +0.4%
Economic data was scarce:
Eurozone CPI increased 0.3% month-over-month (0.4% expected, -1.1% prior) while the year-over-year reading increased 0.7% (0.8% consensus, 0.8% last). Core CPI rose 0.5% month-over-month (-1.7% previous) while the annualized reading came in at 1.0% (1.0% prior).
Among news of note:
Crimeans voted 95.5% in favor of Crimea being annexed to Russia. EU foreign ministers meet to today to determine a response.
Vodaphone (VOD) bought Spanish cable operator Ono for $10 bln

In U.S. corporate news:
Yahoo (YHOO 38.75, +1.15): indicated 3.2% higher after Alibaba.com announced it is preparing for a US IPO
General Motors (GM 34.21, +0.12): trading slightly higher despite news of first lawsuit filed over the ignition recall
Wells Fargo (WFC 48.09, +0.69): reports out this morning that it is being accused by New York attorney general of fabricating foreclosure documents

The Empire Manufacturing Survey for March (Briefing.com consensus 5.4; prior 4.5) will be announced at 8:30 ET while the January Net Long-Term TIC Flows report (prior -$45.9 bln) will cross the wires at 9:00 ET. The Industrial Production (Briefing.com consensus 0.1%; prior -0.3%) and Capacity Utilization (Briefing.com consensus 78.5%; prior 78.5%) report for February will be released at 9:15 ET while the day's data will be topped off with the 10:00 ET release of the NAHB Housing Market Index for March (Briefing.com consensus 50.0; prior 46.0).

7:35 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +9.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +22.80. US indices are indicated higher, following form with European bourses, which are bouncing back some from last week's big losses. The Crimea referendum went as expected, which is to say annexation to Russia was favored by voters -- and overwhelmingly so with 95.5% of the vote going that way. European markets standing their ground in the wake of that vote has provided some support this morning, but it can be regarded as a tenuous move knowing that sanctions will be forthcoming from the West. The questions are just what form the sanctions will take and when.

6:38 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +9.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +26.50.

6:38 am: [BRIEFING.COM] Nikkei...14277.67...-50.00...-0.40%. Hang Seng...21473.95...-65.50...-0.30%.

6:38 am: [BRIEFING.COM] FTSE...6553.91...+26.00...+0.40%. DAX...9106.21...+49.80...+0.50%.

U.S. Stocks Rebound While Treasuries Fall on Factory Data

By Callie Bost and Rob Verdonck Mar 17, 2014 5:12 PM ET

U.S. stocks rebounded from the worst weekly decline since January and Treasuries fell as better-than-forecast economic data overshadowed concern over Ukraine. Russian shares rallied with the ruble.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index gained 1 percent to 1,858.83 following last week’s 2 percent drop. Ten-year Treasury yields rose four basis points to 2.69 percent by 5:11 p.m. in New York. Moscow’s Micex Index surged 3.7 percent after four days of declines. The ruble strengthened while the yen slid against 15 of 16 major peers. Commodities slumped, with corn and wheat retreating amid signs of steady exports from Ukraine amid the political turmoil, while oil lost 0.8 percent.

Factory production in the U.S. rose in February by the most in six months, indicating the industry started to recover after a severe winter. About 97 percent of voters in Crimea chose to leave Ukraine and become part of Russia in a referendum deemed illegal by the U.S. and the European Union. China’s yuan retreated to an 11-month low versus the dollar after the central bank doubled the currency’s trading band.

“There was always fear that it could be worse,” Paul Zemsky, the head of multi-asset strategies at ING U.S. Investment Management, which oversees $200 billion, said by phone from New York. “The world looks a little less dangerous and the U.S. looks a little stronger in its economic growth.”

The S&P 500 gained after declining the most since January last week, erasing its 2014 gains amid mounting tension between Russia and Ukraine and signs of an economic slowdown in China. The index is now up 0.6 percent for the year.

Yahoo, Hertz

Yahoo! Inc. jumped 4 percent today after Chinese e-commerce company Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. began the process to list shares in the U.S. Hertz Global Holdings Inc. added 4.8 percent after a report that the company will spin off its equipment-rentals unit.

Data from the Federal Reserve showed factory production in the U.S. rose in February. The 0.8 percent gain followed a revised 0.9 percent slump in the prior month that was the biggest since May 2009. The median forecast called for a 0.3 percent advance.

The Fed begins a two-day meeting tomorrow that analysts said will see policy makers further scale back the stimulatory bond buying program. The Federal Open Market Committee has cut monthly purchases to $65 billion from $85 billion in December. Policy makers have indicated they plan to taper by $10 billion at each meeting absent a weakening in the economy.

Fed Stimulus

Fed Chair Janet Yellen said last month that the U.S. economy was strong enough to withstand measured reductions to the central bank’s bond purchases. Three rounds of Fed stimulus have helped push the S&P 500 up 175 percent from a 12-year low, as U.S. equities enter the sixth year of a bull market that started March 9, 2009.

“They’re going to taper down to $55 billion -- the more important element will be forward rate guidance,” said Thomas Simons, a government-debt economist in New York at Jefferies LLC, one of 22 primary dealers that trade with the Fed. “Manufacturing over the last few months showed points of weakness, mostly being attributable to weather. We’re starting to see signs of stabilization.”

Ten-year Treasury yields climbed after dropping 13 basis points, or 0.13 percentage point, last week, the most in two months, Bloomberg Bond Trader data showed.

Global stocks lost $1.4 trillion in value last week amid investor concern over Russia’s actions in Crimea and China’s slowing economy.

Russia Sanctions

The U.S. and EU imposed sanctions on Russia today in the worst dispute between former Cold War foes in more than two decades. EU foreign ministers agreed to freeze assets and impose visa travel bans on 21 Russians, Crimeans and former Ukrainian officials. U.S. measures were aimed at the wealth of Russia’s supporters, the White House said in a statement.

While Western leaders left open the option of extending the sanctions, they kept more punitive steps in reserve.

“The sanctions were a huge factor for the markets,” Mark Luschini, chief investment strategist at Philadelphia-based Janney Montgomery Scott LLC, which oversees $63 billion in assets, said by phone. “Instead of there being outright economic sanctions which could have had trade implications, they were more on an individual basis.”

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index climbed 1.1 percent as about 11 stocks climbed for each that fell. The gauge dropped 3.3 percent last week, the most since January. All but one of 19 industry groups in the measure advanced amid renewed merger-and-acquisition activity.

European Movers

RWE AG increased 1.3 percent after L1 Energy agreed to buy the utility’s Dea oil and gas unit for 5.1 billion euros ($7.1 billion). Vodafone Group Plc climbed 1.7 percent after the world’s second-largest wireless carrier agreed to buy Spanish cable operator Grupo Corporativo Ono SA for 7.2 billion euros.

Euro-area inflation unexpectedly slowed in February, keeping pressure on the European Central Bank to defend the region against falling prices. Consumer prices rose an annual 0.7 percent, down from an initial estimate of 0.8 percent, the EU’s statistics office in Luxembourg said today.

The MSCI Emerging Markets Index advanced 0.6 percent today, the most in more than a week. Stock markets in the Czech Republic, Hungary, Turkey and Poland each rose more than 1.5 percent.

Russia’s Micex rebounded from a four-year low. Russian stocks have slumped 11 percent this month as the Ukraine crisis intensified following President Vladimir Putin’s decision to send troops into Crimea.

Ruble Rebounds

The ruble jumped 0.7 percent against the dollar. The yen declined for the first time in six days, losing 0.4 percent to 101.76 per dollar after appreciating 1.9 percent last week as investors sought a safe haven. Japan’s currency dropped 0.5 percent to 141.68 per euro.

The 17-nation shared currency strengthened 0.1 percent to $1.3922. Switzerland’s franc slipped 0.2 percent to 1.2157 per euro.

The currency “market seems to be very calm,” David Bloom, head of global currency strategy at HSBC Holdings Plc in London, said in an interview on Bloomberg TV’s ‘The Pulse,’’’ with Francine Lacqua and Guy Johnson. “The market is not joining the dots and saying there’s a global problem. The market’s saying these are local isolated problems.”

Commodities Slump

The S&P GSCI (SPGSCI) gauge of 24 commodities declined 1.1 percent as corn retreated 1.4 percent and wheat fell 1.9 percent. Ukraine loaded close to 700,000 metric tons of corn last week, according to Paris-based farm adviser Agritel, which has an office in Kiev. A Chinese feed mill bought more than 50,000 tons of Ukraine corn, a purchasing manager said. Ukraine is the third-biggest exporter of corn and sixth-largest in wheat.

West Texas Intermediate and Brent crudes declined on speculation that Crimea’s vote to leave Ukraine and join Russia is unlikely to disrupt oil shipments. WTI dropped 0.8 percent to $98.08 a barrel, while Brent fell 1.8 percent to $106.24 in London.

Gold retreated from a six-month high as the U.S. factory data curbed demand for the metal as a safe-haven investment. Futures fell 0.4 percent to $1,372.90.

U.S. natural gas jumped 2.5 percent as cold weather boosted demand for heating fuel.

The MSCI All-Country World Index rose 0.8 percent today following its biggest weekly loss since June. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped 0.2 percent, extending its biggest weekly slump since May 2012. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index in Hong Kong rose 0.4 percent to snap a five-day drop. The Shanghai Composite Index advanced 1 percent after falling 2.6 percent last week.

Asian Futures

Asian stock-index futures rose in recent trading, with contracts on Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average gaining at least 0.9 percent in Osaka and Chicago. Futures on Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index added 0.4 percent, contracts on South Korea’s Kospi Index climbed 0.7 percent and futures on the Hang Seng and Hang Seng China Enterprises gauges advanced at least 0.4 percent.

The yuan fell for a second day after the People’s Bank of China said March 15 that the currency will be able to trade as much as 2 percent on either side of a daily central bank reference rate, from 1 percent previously.

The decision underscores pledges from China’s leaders to make the exchange rate more market based and promote freer movement of capital for investment purposes.

To contact the reporters on this story: Callie Bost in New York at cbost2@bloomberg.net; Rob Verdonck in London at rverdonck@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Lynn Thomasson at lthomasson@bloomberg.net Jeff Sutherland, Emma O’Brien

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney, Reuters and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader Image@ http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader

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