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 Post subject: February 25th Tuesday Trade Results - Profit $3,065.00
PostPosted: Wed Feb 26, 2014 6:45 am 
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Joined: Sat Jan 10, 2009 2:06 pm
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Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
Phone: +1 708 572-4885
Free Chat Room: http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=164
Business Hours: 8am - 5pm est (Mon - Fri)
questions@thestrategylab.com (24/7)
http://twitter.com/wrbtrader (24/7)

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click on the above image to view today's performance verification

Price Action Trade Performance for Today: Emini TF ($TF_F) futures @ $940.00 dollars or +9.40 points, Emini ES ($ES_F) futures @ $2,125.00 dollars or +42.50 points, Light Crude Oil CL ($CL_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.00 points, Gold GC ($GC_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.00 points and EuroFX 6E ($6E_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.0000 ticks. Total Profit @ $3,065.00 dollars

Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures: 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures: 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup
Light Crude Oil CL (WTI) Futures: 1 tick or 0.01 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup
Gold GC Futures: 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup
EuroFX 6E Futures: 1 tick or 0.0001 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup

In addition, all of my trades were posted real-time in the chat room. You can read today's chat room logs for details about each one of my trades via price action trading from entry to exit (e.g. time, price, contract size) along with price action commentary as the trade traversed to its completion...all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=127&t=1729

Also, posted below are direct links to information about my price action trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis). I'm primarily a day trader because it suits my personal lifestyle but I do occasionally swing trade and position trade. Simply, my trade method is applicable for position trading, swing trading and day trading.

Image ##TheStrategyLab Chat Room is free. Members and I use the chat room to post WRB Analysis commentary, real-time trades and to post anything else related to trading. The chat room helps me tremendously in my own trading because I use it to document (journal) my thought process from trade to trade so that I can easily review at a later date my thoughts as I interacted with the markets...info I can not get from my broker statements. Also, this is not a signal calling chat room where a head trader tells you when to buy or sell. If you join the chat room and then you do not ask any questions about WRB Analysis in your own trading or you do not document (journal) your own thoughts from trade to trade...the chat room will not be useful to you. Chat room access instructions @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=164

Image Price Action Analysis via WRB Analysis Tutorials @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=119&t=718

Image Trade Signal Strategies via Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our price action trade strategies with support (answering your questions) prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Image Trading Plan Daily Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=232&t=2209

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Market Context Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, CNNMoney, Reuters and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED/ECB/BOE/IMF actions or any important global economic events (e.g. Eurozone, MarketWatch.com) that had an impact on today's price action in many trading instruments I monitor during the trading day. Simply, I'm a strong believer that key market events causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility resulting in trade opportunities (swing points and strong continuation price actions) that reach profit targets. Thus, I pay attention to these key market events, intermarket analysis (e.g. Forex EurUsd, EuroFX 6E futures, Gold GC futures, Light Crude Oil (WTI) CL & Brent Oil futures, Eurex DAX futures, Euronext FTSE100 futures, Emini ES futures, Emini TF futures, Treasury ZB futures and U.S. Dollar Index futures) while using WRB Analysis from one trade to the next trade to give me the market context for price action trading before the appearance of my technical analysis trade signals. Therefore, I maintain these archives to allow me to understand what was happening on any given trading day in the past involving key market events to help better understand my trade decisions (day trading, swing trading, position trading)...something I can not get from my broker statements alone.

Investors Hit Pause After Big Gains

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click on the above image to view today's price action of key markets

NEW YORK (CNNMoney)
Stocks slipped slightly Tuesday as investors balanced solid corporate earnings with less-than-stellar economic data.

The Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq all fell modestly.

The losses came a day after U.S. stocks made big gains, as investors were buoyed by the recent flurry of corporate deals and stock buybacks. Stocks started out the year with losses from tumult in the emerging markets and concerns about where the U.S. economy was headed.

But since then, stocks have largely rebounded as investors traded on fairly good corporate profit reports and economic data.

On the economic front Tuesday, a key reading on consumer confidence came in lower than expected.

The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index showed that home prices rose 11.3% last year, but it also indicated a cool-down in the fourth quarter. The housing market has been a big driver of the economic recovery, but with mortgage rates creeping up more recently, it's led to a softening of home loan demand.

Still, Home Depot (HD, Fortune 500) shares gained 4% Tuesday after the retailer said that a recovering housing market drove an increase in quarterly sales.

Investors are also awaiting testimony from Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen on Thursday. Yellen told lawmakers earlier this month that the Fed will continue to taper its bond buying program this year, but she stressed the need to keep interest rates low for a long time.

* Is Pimco's Bill Gross a jerk?

In other corporate news, Macy's (M, Fortune 500) shares jumped 6% after the retailer reported strong sales for the holiday season. Investors have been keeping an eye on the health of the consumer for signs of economic resilience.

BlackBerry (BBRY) stock spiked almost 8% after a report suggested the company's technology could be used in Ford (F, Fortune 500) cars to connect vehicles to drivers' smartphones. Blackberry has had a rough go in recent years as it's continued to lose ground in the competitive smartphone market.

But the stock has gotten a boost this year as investors have grown optimistic of its turnaround potential. It was the biggest gainer on CNNMoney's Tech 30 Index Tuesday.

"$BBRY I don't have a problem holding since this stock is significantly undervalued," said duke2duke Tuesday on StockTwits.

One trader on StockTwits was surprised by Blackberry's performance.

"I never thought I'd say it, but I should have bought $BBRY today. Wow," said JxCxM.

Tesla (TSLA)surged 14% after Morgan Stanley raised its price target on the stock. Shares of the electric car maker are up an eye-popping 640% over the last year.

"$TSLA is building not just a car, but an entire industry. batteries, chargers, maintenance, accessories, specialists, programmers, etc," said StockTwits trader muzammilsoorma.

Still, another StockTwits user thought Tesla shares may have risen too high.

"$TSLA will not be surprised to see downgrades with the current price," said simpleplan.

JPMorgan (JPM, Fortune 500) shares fell after the nation's largest bank said it was cutting jobs in its mortgage business. The plan was unveiled during a presentation Tuesday in which the firm said it will slim down personnel at its branches in response to technological changes in consumer banking.

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4:10 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The stock market spun its wheels during the Tuesday session, ending essentially where it started. The S&P 500 shed 0.1% after spending the bulk of day within a striking distance of its flat line.

Equity indices tried to build on the relative strength of the two consumer sectors, but the rally attempts were stifled by the daylong underperformance of the top three groups.

Financials (-0.6%), health care (-0.2%), and technology (-0.3%) lagged from the opening bell and slumped to lows during the final hour of action. Since the three sectors account for more than 46.0% of the entire S&P 500, their underperformance acted as a headwind.

In the financial sector, Morgan Stanley (MS 29.71, -0.60) was the weakest performer among the majors while JPMorgan Chase (JPM 57.03, -1.00) fell 1.7% after announcing plans to eliminate jobs in its mortgage banking unit. In addition, the financial giant said it has observed a lower level of client activities across most investment banking units so far this year.

Elsewhere, the technology sector succumbed to the pressure exerted by some of its top components. Apple (AAPL 522.06, -5.49) lost 1.0% while Cisco Systems (CSCO 21.84, -0.28), Facebook (FB 69.85, -0.93), and Qualcomm (QCOM 74.91, -0.52) fell between 0.7% and 1.3%.

Unlike the traditional tech space, biotechnology remained strong. The iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 273.23, +1.15) added 0.4%, extending its year-to-date advance to 20.3%. Despite the strength, health care ended among the laggards.

On the upside, the consumer discretionary sector (+0.5%) finished in the lead after Home Depot (HD 80.98, +3.11) reported an earnings beat on below-consensus revenue. The company guided fiscal-year 2015 results below analyst estimates, but boosted its dividend 21.0% to $0.47 per share. On a related note, most homebuilders rallied while Toll Brothers (TOL 38.25, -0.09) shed 0.2% despite beating on earnings. The broader iShares Dow Jones US Home Construction ETF (ITB 25.55, +0.28) rose 1.1%.

Homebuilders received a measure of support from lower rates as the 10-yr yield slipped four basis points to 2.70%. Participation was well below average with only 633 million shares changing hands at the NYSE.

Today's economic data included three reports:
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The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index slipped to 78.1 in February from a downwardly revised 79.4 (from 80.7) while the Briefing.com consensus pegged the index at 80.8. Typically, confidence mirrors trends in stock prices, gasoline costs, employment levels, and media reports. There has been increased volatility among these indicators, but overall trends have been moving sideways. The slight drop in confidence, which is still above the December level (77.5), is likely nothing more than consumers reacting to the recent volatility.
The December Housing Price Index from the FHFA increased 0.8%, which followed an uptick of 0.1% observed in November.
The Case-Shiller 20-city Home Price Index for December rose 13.4% while a 13.6% increase had been expected by the Briefing.com consensus. This followed the November increase of 13.7%.

Tomorrow, the weekly MBA Mortgage Index will be released at 7:00 ET while New Home Sales for January will be reported at 10:00 ET.

Nasdaq Composite +2.7% YTD
Russell 2000 +1.1% YTD
S&P 500 -0.2% YTD
Dow Jones Industrial Average -2.4% YTD

3:30 pm: [BRIEFING.COM]

Apr gold came off its session low of $1333.70 per ounce set moments after equity markets opened and managed to break into positive territory. It continued to trend higher and settled at $1342.70 per ounce, booking a gain of 0.4%.
Mar silver also lifted from its session low of $21.75 per ounce and rose as high as $22.00 per ounce. However, it was unable to push out of negative territory and settled with a 0.4% loss at $21.96 per ounce.
Apr crude oil spent its entire floor session in the red, dipping to a session low of $101.02 per barrel in morning action. It pushed to a session high of $101.95 per barrel and eventually settled with a 0.9% loss at $101.86 per barrel.
Apr natural gas slipped to a session low of $4.53 per MMBtu in early morning action but quickly recovered into positive territory. It advanced to a session high of $4.77 per MMBtu ahead of the close but lost momentum and settled just 0.2% higher at $4.67 per MMBtu.

3:00 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] Equity indices remain anchored to their flat lines with one hour remaining in the session. Following today's closing bell, participants will receive more than 50 quarterly reports with another 40 on tap ahead of Wednesday's open.

This evening, investors will focus on the likes of First Solar (FSLR 58.14, +0.38), Papa John's (PZZA 48.50, +0.52), and Sturm Ruger (RGR 68.40, +0.81) while tomorrow's list will be headlined by Anheuser-Busch InBev (BUD 102.42, -0.73), Target (TGT 56.43, +0.29), and Lowe's (LOW 48.09, +0.87).

2:30 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 sits right below its flat line as today's low-volume affair continues.

On that note, less than 350 million shares have changed hands at the NYSE with just 90 minutes to go in the trading day. Given the current pace, it is unlikely that today's final tally will eclipse the 200-day average of 717 million.

Market breadth at the New York Stock Exchange is now tilted to the downside with declining issues outnumbering advancers by a 1.1:1 ratio. Meanwhile, at the Nasdaq, there are 1.5 stocks trading lower for each name trading in the green.

2:00 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] Quiet afternoon action continues with the major averages remaining in the vicinity of their respective flat lines. In our midday update, we highlighted the underperformance of the three top-weighted sectors as one of the reasons for the market's inability to build on its late morning gain. An hour later, financials (-0.2%), health care (-0.1%), and technology (-0.1%) continue to lag.

Elsewhere, the industrial sector (-0.2%) can also be found among the underperformers. Transports continue to weigh with the Dow Jones Transportation Average trading lower by 0.5%. Defense contractors held up well during the first half of the session, but the industry group finds itself on the defensive at this juncture. The PHLX Defense Index is lower by 0.7%.

1:30 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The market is up today -- both the stock market and the bond market (10-yr note +11/32 at 2.70%). It is an interesting correlation that may be a latent indication of participants' belief that the Fed might be inclined to defer another tapering decision at the March FOMC meeting.

There will be a lot of data released still between now and then, but market participants will soon be hearing from Fed Chair Janet Yellen again. She is slated to give the second round of her semi-annual testimony on the economy and monetary policy to the Senate Banking Committee on Thursday. Recall she was supposed to appear on February 13 but severe winter weather (what else?) in the Washington D.C. area that day postponed the hearing.

At the moment, there isn't a lot of buy side or sell side conviction in the stock market. The back-and-forth action could reflect some hesitancy ahead of the aforementioned hearing and some hesitancy after yesterday's late sell-off prevented a new closing high for the S&P 500. The latter's current standing leaves it on course for a record close. The number to beat is 1848.36.

1:00 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] At midday, the major averages trade little changed after spending some time on each side of their respective flat lines. The Dow is higher by 0.1% while the S&P 500 holds a modest gain of less than two points.

Stocks slipped out of the gate as the underperformance of three top-weighted sectors fueled the opening slide. However, the major averages were able to reclaim their flat lines and notch fresh session highs thanks to the relative strength of consumer discretionary (+0.6%), consumer staples (+0.5%), and materials (+0.7%) sectors.

Strikingly, the early laggards-financials (-0.2%), health care (-0.2%), and technology (-0.1%)-did not take part in the rebound, and their continued weakness has pressured the indices from their highs. The three groups deserve close attention during the afternoon since they account for a bit more than 46.0% of the entire S&P 500. In all likelihood, renewed selling pressure in these areas would translate into weakness for the broader market.

For now, the market continues to keep its head just above water thanks in part to the relative strength of the consumer discretionary sector. Home Depot (HD 80.17, +2.30) trades up 3.0% after reporting a bottom-line beat on below-consensus revenue while Toll Brothers (TOL 38.16, -0.18) holds a loss of 0.5% despite reporting better-than-expected earnings. Outside of TOL, other homebuilders trade broadly higher with the iShares Dow Jones US Home Construction ETF (ITB 25.43, +0.16) up 0.6%.

The relative strength of homebuilders is likely related to the retreat in yields that has been observed today. The 10-yr note is higher by 11 ticks with its yield down four basis points at 2.70%.

Today's economic data included three releases:

The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index slipped to 78.1 in February from a downwardly revised 79.4 (from 80.7) while the Briefing.com consensus pegged the index at 80.8. Typically, confidence mirrors trends in stock prices, gasoline costs, employment levels, and media reports. There has been increased volatility among these indicators, but overall trends have been moving sideways. The slight drop in confidence, which is still above the December level (77.5), is likely nothing more than consumers reacting to the recent volatility.
The December Housing Price Index from the FHFA increased 0.8%, which followed an uptick of 0.1% observed in November.
The Case-Shiller 20-city Home Price Index for December rose 13.4% while a 13.6% increase had been expected by the Briefing.com consensus. This followed the November increase of 13.7%.

12:25 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] Equity indices have returned to their flat lines as the underperformance of financials (-0.3%), health care (-0.3%), and technology (-0.2%) continues to act as a wet blanket over the broader market.

The top three sectors are likely to play a part in determining the afternoon direction of the overall market since they account for a bit more than 46.0% of the S&P 500. For now, the S&P 500 remains right at its flat line as the solid gains in consumer discretionary (+0.5%), consumer staples (+0.5%), and materials (+0.5%) counteract the modest losses among the top three sectors.

Elsewhere, Treasuries remain on their highs with the 10-yr yield down four basis points at 2.70%. On a related note, gold futures are climbing once again. The yellow metal is higher by 0.3% at $1341.90, bringing its February gain to 7.9%.

11:55 am: [BRIEFING.COM] Equity indices have slipped from their highs, but they continue to hold modest gains.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq (+0.2%) outperforms despite mixed performance among top index components. Google (GOOG 1223.01, +10.50) Microsoft (MSFT 37.83, +0.14), and SAP (SAP 80.06, +0.56) display gains between 0.3% and 0.9% while other large names like Apple (AAPL 527.41, -0.14), Cisco Systems (CSCO 22.00, -0.12), and Intel (INTC 24.56, -0.07) hover in the red.

The underperformance of several top components is being overshadowed by the relative strength of biotechnology as the iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 274.14, +2.06) trades up 0.8%. Even though the biotech industry has shown strength, the broader health care sector trades flat.

11:30 am: [BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (+0.3%) has inched to a fresh session high with help from the two consumer sectors as well as health care (+0.2%) and materials (+0.7%). However, the two largest sectors-financials (unch) and technology (+0.1%) continue trailing the broader market.

Elsewhere, the industrial space trades little changed as transports weigh. The Dow Jones Transportation Average is lower by 0.3%, hovering in the vicinity of its 50-day moving average (7288). The bellwether complex lags with 12 of its 20 components displaying losses. Expeditors International (EXPD 39.52, -2.49) is the weakest index member, down 5.9% after reporting an earnings miss on above-consensus revenue.

11:00 am: [BRIEFING.COM] The major averages hover right at their respective flat lines after erasing their opening losses. Even though the key indices have climbed off their lows, a handful of influential sectors remain in the red. The two largest S&P 500 sectors-financials (-0.3%) and technology (-0.3%)-weigh on the broader market while the third-largest group-health care-trades flat.

On the upside, the two consumer sectors outperform. The discretionary space (+0.4%) has drawn strength from Home Depot (HD 79.66, +1.79) while the staples sector (+0.6%) trades ahead of the remaining groups thanks to all-around strength.

10:35 am: [BRIEFING.COM]

The dollar index spiked in recent trade, but this only created some weakness in select commodities such as metals and oil.
Apr crude oil has been in the red all session, but remained above $101/barrel even after extending losses this morning. Apr crude is now -1.5% at $101.27/barrel.
Apr natural gas sold off earlier this morning, but is now recovering and back into positive territory at $4.64/MMBtu (up 0.5%)
Gold and silver futures spent the overnight session in negative territory, but put in a small rally this morning.
Despite this rally, Mar silver remains 0.7% lower at $21.91/oz. Apr gold is +0.1% at $1339.20/oz

10:00 am: [BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 trades lower by 0.3%.

Just released, the consumer confidence reading for February came in at 78.1 while economists polled by Briefing.com expected the survey to come in at 80.8. This followed the prior month's revised reading of 79.4 (from 80.7).

9:40 am: [BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 trades lower by 0.2% despite starting the session just north of its flat line. The benchmark index slipped from its opening level due to the underperformance of influential sectors like financials (-0.3%), industrials (-0.2%), and technology (-0.3%).

Also of note, yesterday's leader, energy (-0.4%), is the weakest group in the early going while crude oil holds a loss of 1.1% at $101.67 per barrel.

On the upside, the consumer discretionary sector (+0.2%) holds a modest gain thanks in part to the 2.1% gain in the shares of Home Depot (HD 79.52, +1.66) after the company reported a bottom-line beat on below-consensus revenue.

Treasuries sit on their highs with the 10-yr yield down two basis points at 2.72%.

The February Consumer Confidence report will be released at 10:00 ET.

9:13 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +0.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +4.20. The stock market is on track to begin the Tuesday session on a flat note. The S&P 500 futures trade in line with fair value after the benchmark index came up less than a point shy of a fresh record closing high during yesterday's session. The S&P 500 did manage to notch a fresh intraday high at 1858.71, but selling during the final hour pressured the index back below its 2013 closing high of 1848.36.

Investors received several quarterly reports since yesterday's closing bell. Most notably, Home Depot (HD 79.50, +1.63) holds a pre-market gain of 2.1% after reporting a bottom-line beat on below-consensus revenue. The company guided fiscal-year 2015 results below consensus and boosted its dividend 21.0% to $0.47 per share. Among other noteworthy movers, Office Depot (ODP 4.54, -0.81) trades down 15.1% after reporting disappointing results.

Treasuries display slim gains with the 10-yr yield down two basis points at 2.72%.

9:03 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -0.90. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +4.00. The S&P 500 futures trade one point below fair value.

The December Housing Price Index from the FHFA increased 0.8%, which followed an uptick of 0.1% observed during the prior month.

Separately, the Case-Shiller 20-city Home Price Index for December rose 13.4% while a 13.6% increase had been expected by the Briefing.com consensus. This follows the previous month's increase of 13.7%.

8:28 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -2.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -1.30. The S&P 500 futures trade nearly three points below fair value.

Asian markets ended the Tuesday session on a mixed note. In economic data, Hong Kong's trade deficit narrowed to HKD20.00 billion from HKD54.40 billion, the Philippines' trade deficit narrowed to $695 million from $941 million, and Thailand's trade deficit widened to $2.5 billion from $285 million. Also of note, Japan's Corporate Services Price Index ticked up 0.8% year-over-year (1.2% expected, 1.1% prior).

Japan's Nikkei gained 1.4%, climbing to a four-week high. Heavyweight Softbank rallied 4.1% on reports it is looking to take a stake in South Korean based Line Corp.
Hong Kong's Hang Seng shed 0.3%, falling for a third consecutive session. Financials were pressured as HSBC gave up 2.7% after its earnings miss. On the upside, casino stocks outperformed with Sands China rallying 4.6% following yesterday's report Las Vegas Sands will invest $10 billion in a Japan casino.
China's Shanghai Composite lost 2.0%, pressing lower for a fourth session as the PBOC drained CNY100 million worth of liquidity. Property shares were a drag with Poly Real Estate down 1.5%.

Core European indices trade lower across the board with Great Britain's FTSE (-1.0%) leading the retreat. Elsewhere, Spain's IBEX (+0.2%) outperforms after Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy said the country will eliminate its income tax on individuals earning EUR12,000 or less. In addition, the country's government plans to reform its laws on corporate restructuring.

Participants received several economic data points. Germany's fourth quarter GDP was left unrevised at 0.4% quarter-over-quarter, as expected. Great Britain's BBA Mortgage Approvals came in at 50,000 (47,900 expected, 47,100 prior) and the CBI Distributive Trades Survey jumped to 37 from 14 (15 expected). French Business Survey held steady at 100, as expected. Italy's retail sales slipped 0.3% month-over-month (0.4% expected, 0.0% prior) while the year-over-year reading fell 2.6% (0.2% expected, 0.2% previous). Separately, Consumer Confidence ticked down to 97.5 from 98.0 (98.5 consensus). Spain's PPI fell 1.8% year-over-year (-0.7% expected, 0.6% previous).

Germany's DAX is lower by 0.5% with Fresenius Medical Care leading the slide. The stock trades lower by 6.7% after the company cut its profit forecast. On the upside, household products manufacturer Beiersdorf outperforms with a gain of 1.6%.
In France, the CAC holds a loss of 0.6%. Telecom provider Vivendi is the weakest member, down 3.3%, after reporting disappointing earnings. L'Oreal is the top index performer, trading higher by 1.3%.
Great Britain's FTSE trades down 1.0% as miners weigh. Anglo American, Fresnillo, and Rio Tinto are all down near 3.0% apiece. Supplier of construction materials CRH outperforms with a gain of 4.0%.

7:59 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -3.10. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -2.80. U.S. equity futures hover near their pre-market lows amid cautious overseas action. The S&P 500 futures trade three points below fair value.

Reviewing overnight developments:

Asian markets ended mixed. Hong Kong's Hang Seng -0.3%, China's Shanghai Composite -2.0%, and Japan's Nikkei +1.4%.
In economic data:
Japan's Corporate Services Price Index ticked up 0.8% year-over-year (1.2% expected, 1.1% prior).
Hong Kong's trade deficit narrowed to HKD20.00 billion from HKD54.40 billion (deficit of HKD37.00 billion expected).
New Zealand's Inflation Expectations came in at 2.3% quarter-over-quarter (2.3% prior).
Among news of note:
According to Sankei News, the approval rating of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's cabinet has increased 0.8% to 52.9%.

Core European indices trade lower across the board. Germany's DAX -0.5%, France's CAC -0.6%, and Great Britain's FTSE -1.0%. Elsewhere, Italy's MIB -0.5% and Spain's IBEX +0.2%.
Participants received several economic data points:
Germany's fourth quarter GDP was left unrevised at 0.4% quarter-over-quarter, as expected.
Great Britain's BBA Mortgage Approvals came in at 50,000 (47,900 expected, 47,100 prior) and the CBI Distributive Trades Survey jumped to 37 from 14 (15 expected).
French Business Survey held steady at 100, as expected.

Italy's retail sales slipped 0.3% month-over-month (0.4% expected, 0.0% prior) while the year-over-year reading fell 2.6% (0.2% expected, 0.2% previous). Separately, Consumer Confidence ticked down to 97.5 from 98.0 (98.5 consensus).
Spain's PPI fell 1.8% year-over-year (-0.7% expected, 0.6% previous).
In news:
Spain's Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy said the country will eliminate its income tax on individuals earning EUR12,000 or less. In addition, the country's government plans to reform its laws on corporate restructuring.

In U.S. corporate news:

Home Depot (HD 79.90, +2.03): +2.6% after reporting an earnings beat on below-consensus revenue. The company guided fiscal-year 2015 results below consensus and boosted its dividend 21.0% to $0.47 per share.
JPMorgan Chase (JPM 57.75, -0.28): -0.5% after lowering its profit target. In addition, the company said it plans to cut additional jobs in its mortgage division.
Office Depot (ODP 4.75, -0.60): -11.2% following its below-consensus earnings and revenue.
Toll Brothers (TOL 38.38, +0.04): +0.1% after beating on earnings.

The Case-Shiller 20-city Index and the FHFA Housing Price Index for December will both be released at 9:00 ET while the February Consumer Confidence report will cross the wires at 10:00 ET.

6:43 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -3.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -5.00.

6:43 am: [BRIEFING.COM] Nikkei...15051.60...+213.90...+1.40%. Hang Seng...22317.20...-71.40...-0.30%.

6:43 am: [BRIEFING.COM] FTSE...6808.32...-57.30...-0.80%. DAX...9662.45...-46.50...-0.50%.

Treasuries Rise as U.S. Stocks Drop; Yen Climbs on Yuan

By Callie Bost and Susanne Walker Feb 25, 2014 4:36 PM ET

Treasuries rose and the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index retreated after touching an intraday record yesterday on signs U.S. consumer confidence is flagging. The yen gained amid concern a weaker Chinese yuan will hurt growth while natural gas led commodities lower.

Yields on 10-year Treasuries dropped four basis points to 2.70 percent by 4:30 p.m. in New York. The S&P 500 lost 0.1 percent to 1,845.12, after fluctuating near its record closing level for most of the day. Japan’s currency climbed versus 15 of 16 major peers as the managed yuan slipped the most since November 2010 and the Shanghai Composite Index slid 2 percent. Ukraine’s hryvnia tumbled to a record as lawmakers delayed a vote on selecting a government. Natural gas sank 6.4 percent.

The Conference Board’s U.S. consumer confidence index fell more than analysts predicted in February, data today showed, while other reports indicated home prices rose at a slower pace through December and manufacturing in the Richmond area unexpectedly shrank. China’s yuan retreated for a sixth day versus the dollar, ending the session weaker than a reference rate set by the central bank to manage the currency for the first time since September 2012.

“Data of late have been on the weaker end of expectations,” said Dan Mulholland, head of Treasury trading at BNY Mellon Capital Markets in New York. “Equities are at the all-time highs -- maybe people are taking chips off the table and putting some cash in Treasuries.”

Treasury Auction

Ten-year Treasury yields fell as the disappointing U.S. data fueled demand for the safety of government debt. An auction of $32 billion in two-year notes, the first of four bond sales this week, drew a yield of 0.340 percent, the lowest level since November. The bid-to-cover ratio, which gauges demand by comparing total bids with the amount of securities offered, was 3.6, the highest since December.

The S&P/Case-Shiller index of property values in 20 U.S. cities rose 13.4 percent in December from December 2012 after increasing 13.7 percent in the year ended in November. It was the first deceleration since June.

The consumer confidence gauge fell to 78.1 in February from 79.4 the prior month. The median forecast in a survey of economists called for a reading of 80. The Richmond Federal Reserve’s manufacturing survey slipped to minus 6 this month. Economists called for a reading of 80.

Fed Stimulus

Fed Chair Janet Yellen said this month that the economy has strengthened enough to withstand cuts to monetary stimulus, adding that only a notable change to the outlook would prompt the central bank to slow the pace of tapering. Three rounds of stimulus have helped push the S&P 500 up 173 percent from a 12-year low reached in 2009. The gauge has gained 3.4 percent this month.

The S&P 500 rose as much as 1.2 percent yesterday to a record 1,858.71 before ending the session up 0.6 percent at 1,847.61, below a record close of 1,848.38 set Jan. 15. The index slumped 5.8 percent from that date through Feb. 3 as investor concern over continued reductions in the Fed’s monthly asset purchases fueled a rout in emerging markets.

“The big thing on everybody’s mind is that all-time high” in the S&P 500, Ryan Detrick, senior technical strategist at Schaeffer’s Investment Research in Cincinnati, said by phone. “We’re kind of teetering with the new all-time high. We saw a little trouble maintaining the high yesterday.”

Yesterday, 68 percent of S&P 500 member companies traded above their average price over the past 50 days, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. More than 70 percent traded above their 50-day moving averages at the last record reached Jan. 15 and almost 80 percent were higher than the threshold when the S&P 500 closed at an all-time high at the end of the year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Macy’s Jumps

Financial, industrial and technology companies led declines in seven of the 10 main industry groups in the S&P 500 (SPX) today. Office Depot Inc. slumped 8.8 percent after reporting an unexpected loss. Tesla Motors Inc. increased 14 percent as Morgan Stanley more than doubled its projected price for the stock.

Home Depot Inc. (HD) rallied 4 percent for the biggest advance in the Dow Jones Industrial Average after the largest U.S. home-improvement chain posted profit that topped analysts’ projections. Macy’s Inc. climbed 6 percent as the department-store company beat earnings estimates after recording a smaller-than-projected charge for a cost-cutting program.

European Stocks

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index gained 0.1 percent to a six-year high, recovering from an earlier 0.5 percent drop. Vivendi SA, the French company preparing a spinoff of its phone business SFR, slipped 1.1 percent after sales trailed estimates. Fresenius Medical Care AG, the world’s biggest provider of kidney dialysis, lost 5.7 percent after giving a 2014 profit forecast that missed projections. Parent Fresenius SE declined 4.2 percent.

Jyske Bank A/S jumped 11 percent after Denmark’s second-largest listed lender agreed to buy BRFkredit A/S for about 7.4 billion kroner ($1.36 billion). St. James’s Place Plc rallied 5.1 percent after the British wealth manager reported an increase in net inflows and funds under management.

The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI) fell 0.6 percent. The weaker yuan boosts the cost of overseas borrowing by Chinese companies at the same time as lenders face pressure to curb some riskier forms of funding at home. The yuan slipped to 6.1266 per dollar in Shanghai, after reaching a six-month low of 6.1310, according to China Foreign Exchange Trade System prices. The currency can diverge by a maximum 1 percent from the reference rate, which was set at 6.1184 today.

‘Financial Risks’

The People’s Bank of China plans to expand the yuan’s trading band in an “orderly” manner this year, it said last week.

“There are increasing financial risks out of China,” said Witold Bahrke, who helps oversee $55 billion as a senior strategist at PFA Asset Management in Copenhagen. “This is increasing the deflation risks for the global economy from a devaluation strategy. We in fact do not know for sure what intentions the Chinese might have exactly, and that uncertainty is reflected in today’s weakness.”

The hryvnia slid 6 percent to 9.73 per dollar, extending its slump this year to 18 percent. Yields on the nation’s April 2023 dollar-denominated bonds rose 51 basis points to 9.76 percent. The country will select a national unity government Feb. 27, delaying a vote in parliament that had been planned for today, interim leader Oleksandr Turchynov said.

Commodities Slump

South Africa’s rand strengthened against all 16 major currencies tracked by Bloomberg, gaining 0.6 percent against the dollar after a report showed the country’s economy expanded more than forecast in the fourth quarter.

The yen strengthened 0.3 percent to 102.19 per dollar and climbed 0.3 percent to 140.43 per euro. Gold -- which, like the yen, is regarded by some investors as a safe haven -- gained a third day, adding 0.3 percent to $1,340.96 an ounce, the highest close since Oct. 30.

The drop in U.S. natural gas futures capped the biggest two-day drop in more than seven years, amid speculation warmer weather will cut demand for the heating fuel. Forecasters including MDA Weather Services said frigid weather in the U.S. Midwest and East through next week will ease starting March 7.

West Texas Intermediate crude oil declined 1 percent, the most in three weeks, to $101.83 a barrel in New York. U.S. crude inventories probably increased for a sixth week to 363.6 million barrels, according to a Bloomberg News survey of analysts before Energy Information Administration data due tomorrow.

Copper futures fell 0.4 percent, dropping for a fifth straight day. China is the biggest buyer of the metal.

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney, Reuters and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader Image@ http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader

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