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 Post subject: February 21st Friday Trade Results - Profit $1,415.00
PostPosted: Fri Feb 21, 2014 3:11 pm 
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Joined: Sat Jan 10, 2009 2:06 pm
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Location: Canada
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Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
Phone: +1 708 572-4885
Free Chat Room: http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=164
Business Hours: 8am - 5pm est (Mon - Fri)
questions@thestrategylab.com (24/7)
http://twitter.com/wrbtrader (24/7)

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click on the above image to view today's performance verification

Price Action Trade Performance for Today: Emini TF ($TF_F) futures @ $800.00 dollars or +8.00 points, Emini ES ($ES_F) futures @ $375.00 dollars or +7.50 points, Light Crude Oil CL ($CL_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.00 points, Gold GC ($GC_F) futures @ $240.00 dollars or +2.40 points and EuroFX 6E ($6E_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.0000 ticks. Total Profit @ $1,415.00 dollars

Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures: 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures: 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup
Light Crude Oil CL (WTI) Futures: 1 tick or 0.01 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup
Gold GC Futures: 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup
EuroFX 6E Futures: 1 tick or 0.0001 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup

In addition, all of my trades were posted real-time in the chat room. You can read today's chat room logs for details about each one of my trades via price action trading from entry to exit (e.g. time, price, contract size) along with price action commentary as the trade traversed to its completion...all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=127&t=1727

Also, posted below are direct links to information about my price action trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis). I'm primarily a day trader because it suits my personal lifestyle but I do occasionally swing trade and position trade. Simply, my trade method is applicable for position trading, swing trading and day trading.

Image ##TheStrategyLab Chat Room is free. Members and I use the chat room to post WRB Analysis commentary, real-time trades and to post anything else related to trading. The chat room helps me tremendously in my own trading because I use it to document (journal) my thought process from trade to trade so that I can easily review at a later date my thoughts as I interacted with the markets...info I can not get from my broker statements. Also, this is not a signal calling chat room where a head trader tells you when to buy or sell. If you join the chat room and then you do not ask any questions about WRB Analysis in your own trading or you do not document (journal) your own thoughts from trade to trade...the chat room will not be useful to you. Chat room access instructions @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=164

Image Price Action Analysis via WRB Analysis Tutorials @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=119&t=718

Image Trade Signal Strategies via Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our price action trade strategies with support (answering your questions) prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Image Trading Plan Daily Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=232&t=2209

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Market Context Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, CNNMoney, Reuters and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED/ECB/BOE/IMF actions or any important global economic events (e.g. Eurozone, MarketWatch.com) that had an impact on today's price action in many trading instruments I monitor during the trading day. Simply, I'm a strong believer that key market events causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility resulting in trade opportunities (swing points and strong continuation price actions) that reach profit targets. Thus, I pay attention to these key market events, intermarket analysis (e.g. Forex EurUsd, EuroFX 6E futures, Gold GC futures, Light Crude Oil (WTI) CL & Brent Oil futures, Eurex DAX futures, Euronext FTSE100 futures, Emini ES futures, Emini TF futures, Treasury ZB futures and U.S. Dollar Index futures) while using WRB Analysis from one trade to the next trade to give me the market context for price action trading before the appearance of my technical analysis trade signals. Therefore, I maintain these archives to allow me to understand what was happening on any given trading day in the past involving key market events to help better understand my trade decisions (day trading, swing trading, position trading)...something I can not get from my broker statements alone.

Stocks End Week On A Quiet Note

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click on the above image to view today's price action of key markets

NEW YORK (CNNMoney)
Stocks slipped Friday as investors analyzed mixed signals about the health of the economy and corporate earnings.

The Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq all finished slightly lower. For the week, the Dow and S&P 500 ended in the red, while the Nasdaq notched out a gain. The Nasdaq is the best performing major index so far in 2014, up more than 2%.

Stocks had a bumpy start to the year, as emerging markets turmoil and questions about the strength of the U.S. economy weighed on investors. The Dow and S&P 500 are still lower for the year.

But a sense of calm has returned in the past few weeks, and stocks have regained some lost ground. There are also hopes that new Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen will be able to effectively wind down the central bank's massive bond buying program in an orderly fashion.

On the corporate front, investors have been closely studying earnings to gauge whether stocks can continue to climb.

Hewlett-Packard (HPQ, Fortune 500) shares dipped even though the company reported earnings late Thursday that topped analysts' expectations. Investors have been looking for signs that the technology giant can roll out innovative new products in the future.

One trader on StockTwits was confused by the drop.

"$HPQ what the heck it turned red? walk way for one second and that happens geez," said StockGuy39.

Dish Network (DISH, Fortune 500) rallied after the satellite provider's quarterly earnings showed significant increases in profit and revenue.

Groupon (GRPN) shares plunged over 21% after the daily deal site forecast a loss for the current quarter.

One trader felt Groupon needs to get back to its roots. "$GRPN Groupon goods is killing the business," said tpstulane. "They need to go back to coupons on mobile."

Another StockTwits user thought Groupon has failed to evolve overall.

"Daily deals is done. What ppl aren't seeing is $GRPN is turning into a mobile based local retailing / digital coupon monster," said eddiedaroza.

Shares of Priceline.com (PCLN, Fortune 500) got a boost after reporting better-than-expected earnings. The travel site was the biggest gainer on CNNMoney's Tech 30 Index.

Barnes and Noble (BKS, Fortune 500) shares jumped over 5% after private equity firm G Asset Management revealed a proposal to acquire a majority stake in the struggling bookseller. The company has been slow to evolve to the digital media landscape, but its stock has enjoyed a rebound this month after being one of the worst performers in the S&P 500 last year.

Under Armour (UA) shares popped after the company said Friday that it extended its partnership with the U.S. Olympic speedskating team through 2022. The Under Armour suits created a controversy in Sochi after some speedskaters blamed the new uniforms for poor performance.

"Great news for the Dutch Speedskating team!! $UA," quipped mytfine, referring to the fact that the Netherlands has dominated the U.S. in speedskating Olympic events this year.

Business Wire, owned by Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway (BRKA, Fortune 500), said it would discontinue its practice of pumping a direct news feed to high frequency traders.

* Rich Chinese use fine art for money laundering

European markets closed mostly higher, despite unrest in nearby Ukraine, which canceled plans to raise $2 billion by selling bonds to Russia. Asian markets ended mixed.

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4:15 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The major averages finished the mixed week on a lower note. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 both shed 0.2% while the Nasdaq slipped 0.1%. For the week, the Dow and S&P 500 posted respective losses of 0.3% and 0.1% while the Nasdaq added 0.5%.

In some ways, today's session resembled Wednesday's affair, during which the S&P 500 made an unsuccessful run at its 2013 closing high of 1848.36. However, today's rejection unfolded over the course of the afternoon while Wednesday's pushback from the record high occurred in one sharp move.

The opening rally was supported by the largest S&P 500 sector, technology, which outperformed during the first 90 minutes of action. However, the morning leader became an afternoon laggard after the S&P 500's failed run at new record highs. The tech sector lost 0.3% while top components like Apple (AAPL 525.25, -5.90), Facebook (FB 68.59, -1.04), and Intel (INTC 24.48, -0.26) lost between 1.1% and 1.5%. Another tech component, Hewlett-Packard (HPQ 29.79, -0.40), lost 1.3% despite beating on earnings and revenue.

Interestingly, once the technology sector slipped behind the S&P 500, the second largest sector-financials-was there to pick up the slack. The group struggled to keep pace with the S&P 500 since Wednesday and began today among the laggards, but was able to climb ahead of the broader market during the late-morning retreat. Despite today's slight gain of 0.03%, the sector ended the week behind the remaining nine groups with a loss of 0.9%.

Elsewhere, the discretionary sector (+0.2%) finished in the lead thanks to all-around strength. Retailers held up well even after Nordstrom (JWN 59.24, -0.20) issued disappointing guidance.

On the downside, the energy sector (-0.7%) spent the entire session in the red while crude oil slid 0.6% to $102.18/bbl. Elsewhere among commodities, gold remained strong, climbing 0.5% to $1317.30/ozt.

Trading volume was above average, which resulted from options expiration. Nearly 800 million shares changed hands at the NYSE versus a 200-day average of 718 million.

Treasuries posted modest gains with the benchmark 10-yr yield ending lower by two basis points at 2.73%.

Week in Review: Stocks Endure Choppy Week

On Monday, bond and equity markets were closed for Presidents' Day.

Tuesday's session saw equity indices kick off the abbreviated trading week on a relatively quiet note. Small caps finished in the lead (Russell 2000 +1.0%) while the S&P 500 added 0.1%. The benchmark index saw a brief dip at the open, but the weakness was erased promptly thanks to the early strength of the health care sector (+0.9%). The group surged out of the gate after Actavis (ACT 218.41, -1.96) agreed to acquire Forest Laboratories (FRX 96.88, -0.42) for $25 billion. Biotechnology also factored into the sector's strength as the iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 268.71, +3.25) jumped 2.6%.

On Wednesday, stocks ended on their lows with the S&P 500 snapping its three-day win streak. The index fell 0.7% while the Nasdaq (-0.8%) lagged throughout the session. The trading day began with slim losses, but the Dow and S&P 500 were quick to erase the early weakness. For its part, the Nasdaq was unable to make a sustained move into the green. Eight of ten sectors ended in the red with financials registering the largest decline. Citigroup (C 48.26, +0.13) was the weakest performer among the majors while regional banks also endured significant losses. The SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE 38.15, +0.31) fell 2.8%.

Equities ended the Thursday session on their highs with small caps in the lead. The Russell 2000 gained 1.1% while the S&P 500 rose 0.6% with all ten sectors posting gains. Prior to the open, the market appeared to be headed for a lower start as disappointing data from China, Japan, and the eurozone weighed on index futures. Specifically, China's HSBC Manufacturing PMI fell to 48.3 from 49.5 (49.4 expected), Japan posted a record trade deficit of JPY1.82 trillion (JPY1.56 trillion expected), and the Manufacturing PMI for the eurozone (53.0 versus 54.0 expected) disappointed. Despite the weak data from overseas, equity futures were able to find support when a better-than-expected Markit Manufacturing PMI for the U.S. was released (56.7 actual versus 53.0 expected). Historically, the data point has not been known for eliciting a noteworthy reaction in the market, but today's number likely fueled some short covering activity that sent futures back to their flat lines by the opening bell. In addition, buying ahead of Friday's options expiration likely factored into the morning rebound and the daylong rally.
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Nasdaq Composite +2.1% YTD
Russell 2000 +0.3% YTD
S&P 500 -0.7% YTD
Dow Jones Industrial Average -2.9% YTD

3:35 pm: [BRIEFING.COM]

Crude oil prices remained in the red all session, but ended the session above $102/barrel. Apr crude fell $0.59 to $012.18/barrel.
Apr natural gas sold off this morning and fell as low as $4.82/MMBtu. However, the energy component reversed and ended the day $0.14 higher at $5/MMBtu (Mar nat gas rose $0.10 to $6.15/MMBtu. Apr is new front-month contract)
Copper futures ended the day just under its session high. Mar copper closed one cent higher at $3.29/lb.
Apr gold gained $6.40 to $1323.70/oz, while Mar silver rose $0.09 to $21.77/oz.

3:00 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 sits just below its flat line with one hour remaining in today's session.

Similar to Wednesday, the S&P 500 began the day with a run towards its 2013 closing high of 1848.36. Similar to Wednesday, the index was unable to cross that level. However, unlike Wednesday's sharp rejection, today's retreat was much slower and unfolded over the course of the afternoon.

Top-weighted sectors have been on our radar throughout the day due to a lack of defined leadership. At this juncture, financials (+0.1%) continue to hold a slim gain while health care (-0.1%) and technology (-0.2%) hover in the red.

Elsewhere, Treasuries have been inching higher throughout the session. The 10-yr note is now higher by four ticks with its yield down two basis points at 2.74%.

2:25 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] In our most recent update, we pointed out the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which was headed back to its flat line. Since then, the price-weighted Dow (-0.1%) has slipped into the red and the S&P 500 followed suit.

The retreat in the S&P 500 took place as the largest sector-technology-widened its loss to 0.2% while another heavily-weighted group-healthcare (-0.1%)-also slipped behind the broader market. With two of the three largest S&P 500 sectors trailing, the second-largest group-financials (+0.2%)-remains in position of relative strength. The financial sector bears watching during the final 90 minutes of action considering it is on pace to end the week behind the remaining nine groups with a loss of 0.7% versus no change for the S&P 500.

2:00 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] Equity indices have continued their slow retreat from the morning highs. The S&P 500 has trimmed its gain to 0.1% while the Dow hovers just above its flat line.

Even though the price-weighted Dow has returned to its flat line, the majority of the index trades in the green. Of the 30 index components, 17 display gains. Furthermore, of those 17, four display gains larger than 1.0%.

On the downside, the weakest index component, Chevron (CVX 113.13, -1.47), holds a loss of 1.3%. Fittingly, the energy sector (-0.2%) trails the remaining cyclical groups.
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1:30 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The stock market is plodding along, protecting modest gains that have been in place for most of today's session. The relative strength of the Dow Jones Transportation Average (+1.0%) and the S&P Financials sector (+0.4%) has played an influential role in keeping the broader market maintaining a positive edge following yesterday's recovery effort.

Their strength notwithstanding, the S&P 500 has been unable to make a successful assault on its 2013 closing high of 1848.36, stopping a few points shy around 11:00 a.m. ET. Since then, the market has been a bit whippy, but bears have been unable to wrest control from the bulls.

That lack of success so far is holding back interest in seeking portfolio protection, evidenced by the 3.3% decline in the CBOE Volatility Index (14.30, -0.49).

12:55 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] At midday, the Dow (+0.1%), Nasdaq Composite (+0.2%), and S&P 500 (+0.2%) trade with comparable gains while the Russell 2000 (+0.5%) outperforms.

Equity indices began the options expiration Friday on a slightly higher note before showing some volatility during the first hour of action. After the early choppiness subsided, the major averages found support and climbed to their best levels of the day.

The S&P 500 was able to notch a session high less than five points below its all-time intraday high of 1850.84, but the index has since lost the support of its largest sector, technology, which trades just below its flat line.

The tech sector paced the early advance, but was unable to build on that strength due to the underperformance of its largest components. On that note, Apple (AAPL 526.33, -4.82), Cisco Systems (CSCO 22.22, -0.08), and Intel (INTC 24.52, -0.22) display losses between 0.4% and 0.9%.

Despite the underperformance of technology, biotechnology has not missed a beat. The iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 269.49, +4.03) is higher by 1.5%, which has factored into the relative strength of the health care sector (+0.2%).

Moving from one influential group to another, the financial sector (+0.4%) trades ahead of the broader market. The group has struggled to keep pace with the S&P 500 since Wednesday, but was able to climb ahead of the broader market during late morning action. Despite today's advance, the second-largest sector is the weakest group of the week, down 0.5%.

Elsewhere, Treasuries have recently inched to their best levels of the day. The 10-yr note trades higher by two ticks with its yield down one basis point at 2.74%.

Today's economic data was limited to the January Existing Home Sales report, which was a disappointment. Existing home sales declined 5.1% in January to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.62 million. That was below the Briefing.com consensus estimate of 4.70 million and marked the lowest level of sales activity since July 2012. Single-family home sales dropped 5.8% to 4.05 million. The severe winter weather played a part in the disappointment, yet the National Association of Realtors acknowledged in its report that it wasn't all weather related. To that end, sales in the West, which had no connection to the polar vortex, declined 7.3%. That drop was blamed in part on tight inventory that is driving up home prices and cutting affordability conditions for first-time buyers.

On the latter front, first-time buyers accounted for 26% of overall purchases in January, which is the lowest level since that metric started to be tracked in October 2008. The NAR notes that level should be closer to 40%, underscoring the point that higher mortgage rates, tighter credit, and higher home prices are curtailing homebuying activity.

12:30 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] Quiet action continues with the S&P 500 trading within seven points of its record intraday high of 1850.84.

Five of six cyclical groups continue trading in the green with the discretionary space (+0.4%) in the lead thanks to all-around support from its top components. Apparel retailers trade mostly higher despite disappointing guidance issued by Nordstrom (JWN 58.56, -0.88).

Elsewhere, homebuilders also trade broadly higher despite a disappointing Existing Home Sales report for January (4.62 million versus 4.70 million expected). The iShares Dow Jones US Home Construction ETF (ITB 25.42, +0.40) is higher by 1.6%.

12:00 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The major averages remain near their recent levels with the Dow (+0.3%), Nasdaq (+0.3%), and S&P 500 (+0.3%) displaying comparable gains. Small caps continue to outperform with the Russell 200 trading higher by 0.6%.

With regard to individual sectors, utilities (+0.9%) remain well ahead of the other nine groups while the other advancers display gains close to 0.4% apiece.

On the downside, energy (-0.2%) and telecom services (-0.3%) remain in the red. The technology sector is also among the laggards, but continues to hold a razor-thin gain of 0.1%.

With stocks on highs, there hasn't been much demand for volatility protection as the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX 14.25, -0.54) trades lower by 3.7%. Despite today's decline, the near-term volatility measure remains between 13.50% and 16.50%, which is a range that has held since February 7.

11:30 am: [BRIEFING.COM] Equity indices remain near their best levels of the session with the Russell 2000 (+0.6%) trading ahead of its peers. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 holds a more modest gain of 0.2% with eight sectors sitting in the green.

The utilities space (+0.9%) has built on its early gain, extending its year-to-date advance to 7.1%. Elsewhere, the technology sector, which led at the open, has trimmed its gain to 0.1%. Outside of Microsoft (MSFT 38.29, +0.54), most top-weighted tech names are showing some weakness. Apple (AAPL 527.46, -3.69), Cisco Systems (CSCO 22.26, -0.04), and Intel (INTC 24.53, -0.21) all trade with losses between 0.2% and 0.8%.

Although the traditional tech sector has shown some cracks, companies specializing in biotechnology are among today's outperformers. The iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 270.44, +4.98) is higher by 1.9%, contributing to the outperformance of the Nasdaq Composite (+0.3%) and the health care sector (+0.3%).

11:00 am: [BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (+0.3%) sits at its best level of the session, which puts the benchmark index within six points of its record intraday high of 1850.84.

The S&P 500 made a run at that level on Wednesday, but was rejected swiftly in a move that was led by the financial sector. Financials ended Wednesday's session behind the remaining nine groups, and lagged once again yesterday. Today, the sector underperformed during the opening hour but now trades just ahead of the broader market.

For the month, the financial sector is the second weakest group as it holds a month-to-date gain of 2.1%. Only the telecom sector has had a worse showing so far in February. The rate-sensitive group is higher by 0.6% this month.

10:35 am: [BRIEFING.COM]

Commodities are mixed this morning, while the dollar index remains near its session low following a sell off a short while ago.
Overall, energy is down, metals are up and agriculture futures are mixed.
Crude oil futures have been in the red all day so far and fell as low as $102.34/barrel.
Natural gas futures sold off in recent trade and fell as low as $5.96/MMbtu.
In current trade, Mar crude oil is 0.3% at $102.42/barrel, Mar natural gas is +0.2% at $6.08/MMBtu
Metals continue to climb higher. Apr gold is currently +0.5% at $1323.80/oz, Mar silver +0.5% at $21.79/oz is and Mar copper is +0.3% at $3.29/lb.

10:00 am: [BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 has climbed to a fresh session high with support from most sectors. The utilities space (+0.5%) has overtaken the technology sector (+0.4%) for the lead while energy (-0.3%) is the only declining sector at this juncture.

Just reported, January existing home sales hit an annualized rate of 4.62 million units, which was a bit weaker than the rate of 4.70 million units that had been generally expected by the Briefing.com consensus. The pace for January was down from the prior month's unrevised rate of 4.87 million units.

9:40 am: [BRIEFING.COM] Equity indices began the trading day on a slightly higher note with the Nasdaq (+0.2%) in the lead. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 opened less than two points above its flat line before slipping back to the unchanged level.

Five of ten sectors display early gains with technology (+0.3%) and materials (+0.3%) in the lead. On the downside, two of the three top-weighted S&P 500 sectors-financials (-0.1%) and health care (-0.2%) began in the red.

Elsewhere, Treasuries have climbed off their lows and now trade just below their flat lines. The benchmark 10-yr yield is higher by one basis point at 2.76%.

9:14 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +2.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +6.70. The stock market is on track for a modestly higher open on this options expiration Friday as futures on the S&P 500 trade two points above fair value. The benchmark index will enter the final session of the week looking to maintain its slight week-to-date gain of 0.1%.

The S&P 500 ended yesterday's session within 12 points of its all-time high of 1850.84, suggesting the index could make another run at that level after a failed attempt on Wednesday.

Treasuries are modestly lower to start the day. The 10-yr note is down six ticks with its yield up two basis points at 2.77%.

The Existing Home Sales report for January will be released at 10:00 ET.

9:00 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +1.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +4.00. The S&P 500 futures trade less than two points above fair value.

Major Asian indices ended higher with the exception of China's Shanghai Composite (-1.2%). Economic data was limited to Hong Kong's CPI, which rose 4.6% year-over-year (4.5% expected, 4.3% prior).

Japan's Nikkei surged 2.9% after the yen weakened during the New York session. Growth-sensitive names led with Showa Shell Sekiyu and Toho Zinc both up near 5.4%. On the downside, real estate name Tokyo Fudosan Holdings fell 0.8%.
Hong Kong's Hang Seng rallied 0.8% as consumer names provided support. Belle International, Cathay Pacific Airways, and Want Want China Holdings gained between 2.8% and 4.0%.
China's Shanghai Composite lost 1.2% amid pressure from producers of basic materials. Sinopec Shanghai Petrochemical and Sinopec Yizheng Chemical both lost near 10.0%.

Core European indices trade just above their flat lines with France's CAC (+0.3%) in the lead. Participants received several economic data points from Great Britain. Retail sales fell 1.5% month-over-month (-1.0% expected, 2.5% prior) while the year-over-year reading increased 4.3% (5.0% consensus, 5.3% previous). Core retail sales fell 1.5% month-over-month (-1.4% forecast, 2.7% last) while the year-over-year reading rose 4.8% (5.0% expected, 6.1% prior). Separately, public sector net borrowing decreased GBP6.40 billion (-GBP9.0 billion forecast, +GBP9.0 billion previous).

In news, German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble appeared on CNBC overnight, saying European economies should not misuse the time provided by monetary policy. In addition, Mr. Schaeuble said he expects the Outright Monetary Transactions program to be ruled lawful by the European Court of Justice.

Germany's DAX is higher by 0.1% with Infineon Technologies in the lead. The chipmaker trades up 1.8%. Adidas leads the decliners with a loss of 2.1%.
Great Britain's FTSE trades up 0.2% with banks providing support. Barclays and Royal Bank of Scotland hold respective gains of 0.8% and 1.6%. Miners lag with Anglo American down 0.9%.
In France, the CAC holds an advance of 0.3%. Cyclical names lead with Bouygues and Technip up 1.8% and 3.9%, respectively.

8:31 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +2.40. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +6.70. U.S. equity futures continue to hold modest gains with the S&P 500 futures trading two points above fair value. Futures received an overnight boost from an upbeat Asian session where the Nikkei surged 2.9% after the yen weakened during the New York Session. Despite the early overnight strength, futures surrendered roughly half of their gains once the Asian session ended.

The S&P 500 will enter today's session with a very modest week-to-date gain of 0.1%. Trading volume is expected to come in ahead of the 200-day average of 717 million considering options expiration takes place today.

Treasuries hover a bit below their flat lines with the 10-yr yield up one basis point at 2.76%.

7:56 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +3.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +9.00. U.S. equity futures hold modest gains amid relatively quiet overseas action. The S&P 500 futures hover less than four points above fair value.

Reviewing overnight developments:

Asian markets ended mixed. China's Shanghai Composite -1.2%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng +0.8%, and Japan's Nikkei +2.9%.
Economic data was limited to just one report:
Hong Kong's CPI rose 4.6% year-over-year (4.5% expected, 4.3% prior).
Among news of note:
The Bank of Japan released the minutes from its latest policy meeting. The report showed some concern regarding a potential slowdown in CPI once the yen stops weakening. BoJ members did not voice much concern over the impact of the planned sales tax hike.

Major European indices trade just above their flat lines. Germany's DAX +0.1%, Great Britain's FTSE +0.2%, and France's CAC +0.3%. Elsewhere, Spain's IBEX -0.4% and Italy's MIB -0.3%.
Participants received several economic data points:
Great Britain's retail sales fell 1.5% month-over-month (-1.0% expected, 2.5% prior) while the year-over-year reading increased 4.3% (5.0% consensus, 5.3% previous). Core retail sales fell 1.5% month-over-month (-1.4% forecast, 2.7% last) while the year-over-year reading rose 4.8% (5.0% expected, 6.1% prior). Separately, public sector net borrowing decreased GBP6.40 billion (-GBP9.0 billion forecast, +GBP9.0 billion previous).
In news:
German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble appeared on CNBC overnight, saying European economies should not misuse the time provided by monetary policy. In addition, Mr. Schaeuble said he expects the Outright Monetary Transactions program to be ruled lawful by the European Court of Justice.

In U.S. corporate news:

Groupon (GRPN 8.93, -1.35): -13.1% after its below-consensus guidance overshadowed its better-than-expected results.
Hewlett-Packard (HPQ 30.55, +0.36): +1.2% following its earnings beat on better-than-expected revenue.
Marvell (MRVL 15.65, -0.48): -3.0% despite beating on earnings and revenue.
Newmont Mining (NEM 24.00, -0.46): -1.9% after missing on earnings and revenue.
Nordstrom (JWN 58.85, -0.59): -1.0% after reporting above-consensus results and issuing cautious guidance.
Priceline.com (PCLN 1310.00, +27.00): +2.1% after beating on earnings and revenue. However, the company guided first quarter results below consensus.

Today's economic data will be limited to the January Existing Home Sales report, which will be released at 10:00 ET.

6:56 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +3.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +8.00.

6:56 am: [BRIEFING.COM] Nikkei...14865.67...+416.50...+2.90%. Hang Seng...22568.24...+174.20...+0.80%.

6:56 am: [BRIEFING.COM] FTSE...6828.19...+15.20...+0.20%. DAX...9620.45...+1.60...0.00.

U.S. Stocks Fall as Fed Comments Overshadow Earnings

By Nick Taborek Feb 21, 2014 4:41 PM ET

U.S. stocks fell, after the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index climbed to within three points of a record, as Federal Reserve officials indicated the central bank is unlikely to slow the pace of stimulus cuts.

Groupon Inc. slumped 22 percent, the most in a year, after the daily deals website gave a profit forecast that trailed estimates. Priceline.com Inc. and Intuit Inc. gained at least 2.5 percent after posting better-than-estimated results. Seagate Technology PLC advanced 1.5 percent after RBC Capital Markets LLC raised its rating on the shares.

The S&P 500 (SPX) dropped 0.2 percent to 1,836.25 at 4 p.m. in New York after earlier gaining as much as 0.4 percent. The equities benchmark retreated 0.1 percent over the past four sessions following two straight weekly advances. The Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased 29.93 points, or 0.2 percent, to 16,103.30. More than 6.5 billion shares changed hands on U.S. exchanges, 2.4 percent above the three-month average.

“The fear might be that they begin to taper too quickly,” Eric Teal, who helps oversee about $4 billion as the chief investment officer at First Citizens BancShares Inc. in Raleigh, North Carolina, said by phone. “The fact that central banks have really agreed to keep policy stimulative should give investors a little bit of reassurance that they’re not going to undo the recovery that’s taken place.”

Fed Comments

The S&P 500 slumped as much as 5.8 percent after reaching a record on Jan. 15 as concern about the Fed’s reductions in stimulus fueled a rout in emerging markets. The benchmark gauge has rebounded 5.4 percent from a Feb. 3 low.

Equities erased gains that sent the S&P 500 up as much as 0.4 percent today as Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher said it’s hard to argue that further expansion of central bank balance sheet has had “much efficacy.”

“This is why I’ve been such a strong proponent of dialing back our large-scale asset purchases and will continue advocating that we do so,” Fisher said in text of speech in Austin, Texas.

St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, who doesn’t vote on the Federal Open Market Committee this year, said the central bank is on target to continue scaling back stimulus, adding that soft economic data in 2014 is probably due to bad weather.

Home Sales

Sales of previously owned U.S. homes dropped in January to the lowest level in more than a year as harsh winter weather combined with a lack of supply, tight credit and declining affordability slowed demand. Purchases decreased 5.1 percent to a 4.62 million annual rate last month, figures from the National Association of Realtors showed. The median forecast of 79 economists surveyed by Bloomberg projected sales would drop to a 4.67 million rate.

Investors have dismissed worse-than-forecast U.S. economic data over the past two weeks, speculating that the coldest January since 2001 explains the weakness in reports such as housing and hiring. The Bloomberg ECO U.S. Surprise Index, which measures how much recent data has beaten or missed economists’ estimates, fell to minus 0.429 today, the lowest since August 2011.

Fed Chair Janet Yellen last week said the economy has strengthened enough to withstand continued cuts to monetary stimulus, adding that only a notable change in the outlook for the economy would prompt the central bank to slow the pace of tapering.

Earnings Season

Group of 20 finance ministers and central bankers meeting in Sydney this weekend will seek to minimize volatility as the Fed slows its bond-buying program. The group also aims to find new ways to support global growth in the next five years while maintaining fiscal sustainability, according to a draft document seen by Bloomberg News. The G-20 will release the communique, which may yet change, on Feb. 23.

Earnings beat analysts’ estimates at about 74 percent of the 433 companies in the S&P 500 that have posted results so far this season, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Analysts estimate earnings for S&P 500 companies grew by 8.6 percent in the fourth quarter of 2013, according to a survey of analysts.

The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX), the gauge of S&P 500 options known as the VIX, slipped 0.7 percent to 14.68 today, falling for a second day.

Six out of the 10 main industries in the S&P 500 fell today, as phone companies lost 1.4 percent as a group to pace declines.

Priceline gained 2.5 percent to $1,315.65. The largest U.S. online travel agent reported profit for the fourth quarter that topped analysts’ estimates as Europe’s economic recovery lifts hotel bookings.

CommScope Rallies

Juniper Networks Inc. (JNPR) rose 2 percent to $27.95. The technology company, bowing to pressure from activist hedge funds Elliott Management Corp. and Jana Partners LLC, announced plans to return at least $3 billion to shareholders and cut $160 million in expenses.

The plan includes purchasing more than $2 billion of shares through the first quarter of 2015 and paying a dividend of 10 cents a share starting in the third quarter of this year, the company said yesterday in a statement.

Intuit advanced 4.6 percent to $77.24. The software maker reported second-quarter profit and sales that exceeded analyst estimates and said sales of its TurboTax Online program grew 11 percent.

Seagate, Groupon

Seagate Technology rallied 1.5 percent to $50.75. RBC Capital Markets upgraded the data storage company to outperform from sector perform, citing an improving PC market and the possibility share buybacks will boost the shares this year.

Barnes & Noble Inc. jumped 5.4 percent to $17.69. G Asset Management proposed buying 51 percent of the company, valuing the maker of the Nook e-reader at $22 a share. G Asset Management said in a statement it is “extremely confident” that separating the Nook segment from the rest of the book-selling business would boost shareholder value.

CommScope Holding Inc. jumped 16 percent to $21.92 after forecasting first-quarter adjusted earnings of 36 cents to 40 cents a share and sales of $860 million to $900 million. Analysts had forecast EPS of 30 cents and sales of $818.3 million. Jefferies Group LLC raised its rating on the shares to buy from hold.

Pharmacyclics Inc. (PCYC) added 6.3 percent to $151.61 after the drugmaker posted fourth-quarter earnings per share of 82 cents and revenue of $123.6 million. That beat analysts’ estimates of 64 cents and $85.8 million.

Groupon tumbled 22 percent to $8.03 after saying higher expenses for acquisitions and marketing will hurt profit. It projected first-quarter adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization of $20 million to $40 million. Analysts had estimated Ebitda of $96 million.

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney, Reuters and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader Image@ http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader

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