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 Post subject: February 20th Thursday Trade Results - Profit $1,040.00
PostPosted: Thu Feb 20, 2014 11:43 pm 
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Joined: Sat Jan 10, 2009 2:06 pm
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Location: Canada
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Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
Phone: +1 708 572-4885
Free Chat Room: http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=164
Business Hours: 8am - 5pm est (Mon - Fri)
questions@thestrategylab.com (24/7)
http://twitter.com/wrbtrader (24/7)

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click on the above image to view today's performance verification

Price Action Trade Performance for Today: Emini TF ($TF_F) futures @ $1,040.00 dollars or +10.40 points, Emini ES ($ES_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.00 points, Light Crude Oil CL ($CL_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.00 points, Gold GC ($GC_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.00 points and EuroFX 6E ($6E_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.0000 ticks. Total Profit @ $1,040.00 dollars

Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures: 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures: 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup
Light Crude Oil CL (WTI) Futures: 1 tick or 0.01 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup
Gold GC Futures: 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup
EuroFX 6E Futures: 1 tick or 0.0001 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup

In addition, all of my trades were posted real-time in the chat room. You can read today's chat room logs for details about each one of my trades via price action trading from entry to exit (e.g. time, price, contract size) along with price action commentary as the trade traversed to its completion...all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=127&t=1726

Also, posted below are direct links to information about my price action trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis). I'm primarily a day trader because it suits my personal lifestyle but I do occasionally swing trade and position trade. Simply, my trade method is applicable for position trading, swing trading and day trading.

Image ##TheStrategyLab Chat Room is free. Members and I use the chat room to post WRB Analysis commentary, real-time trades and to post anything else related to trading. The chat room helps me tremendously in my own trading because I use it to document (journal) my thought process from trade to trade so that I can easily review at a later date my thoughts as I interacted with the markets...info I can not get from my broker statements. Also, this is not a signal calling chat room where a head trader tells you when to buy or sell. If you join the chat room and then you do not ask any questions about WRB Analysis in your own trading or you do not document (journal) your own thoughts from trade to trade...the chat room will not be useful to you. Chat room access instructions @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=164

Image Price Action Analysis via WRB Analysis Tutorials @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=119&t=718

Image Trade Signal Strategies via Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our price action trade strategies with support (answering your questions) prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Image Trading Plan Daily Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=232&t=2209

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Market Context Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, CNNMoney, Reuters and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED/ECB/BOE/IMF actions or any important global economic events (e.g. Eurozone, MarketWatch.com) that had an impact on today's price action in many trading instruments I monitor during the trading day. Simply, I'm a strong believer that key market events causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility resulting in trade opportunities (swing points and strong continuation price actions) that reach profit targets. Thus, I pay attention to these key market events, intermarket analysis (e.g. Forex EurUsd, EuroFX 6E futures, Gold GC futures, Light Crude Oil (WTI) CL & Brent Oil futures, Eurex DAX futures, Euronext FTSE100 futures, Emini ES futures, Emini TF futures, Treasury ZB futures and U.S. Dollar Index futures) while using WRB Analysis from one trade to the next trade to give me the market context for price action trading before the appearance of my technical analysis trade signals. Therefore, I maintain these archives to allow me to understand what was happening on any given trading day in the past involving key market events to help better understand my trade decisions (day trading, swing trading, position trading)...something I can not get from my broker statements alone.

Stocks Rally, S&P 500 Nearing Record High

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click on the above image to view today's price action of key markets

NEW YORK (CNNMoney)
Investors are taking the latest batch of weak economic reports with a grain of snow-melting salt.

The Dow Jones industrial average gained more than 100 points. The S&P 500 closed within 10 points of its all-time high. The Nasdaq also gained, resuming a hot streak. The tech-heavy index has closed higher in 9 of the past 10 trading days.

Bad weather in many parts of the country has made it difficult to gauge how the economy is performing. "Weather remains a handy excuse" for investors who want to discount mixed economic data, said Steven Ricchiuto, chief economist at Mizuho Securities

The U.S. government said the consumer price index, the benchmark for inflation, rose 0.1% in January, which was slightly below what economists had predicted. A measure of manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia area fell sharply. On the bright side, initial claims for unemployment benefits fell last week.

Lackluster readings on manufacturing in China and Europe weren't making investors nervous either.

Some traders said stocks were benefiting from a move out of bonds as investors look for more risky assets. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note rose to 2.77%, up from 2.74% Wednesday. Bond yields rise when prices fall.

Investors are still digesting meeting minutes released Wednesday by the Federal Reserve. While the Fed remains set on holding interest rates low for now, a few officials raised the possibility of increasing rates "relatively soon."

Facebook's $19 billion bet on texting. The market was buzzing with chatter about Facebook, which announced plans Wednesday to buy messaging platform WhatsApp for $19 billion in cash and stock.

Despite the eye-popping price tag, analysts say the deal makes sense. WhatsApp gives Facebook access to the global text-messaging market, which should help the social network retain its younger users. Analysts at Goldman Sachs said they believed the acquisition "will help drive increased engagement."

The deal also means Facebook doesn't have to worry about a rival social media company scooping up WhatsApp and its millions of dedicated users, according to Jack Kent, an analyst at IHS Technology,

"Facebook could not risk WhatsApp's 450 million monthly and 315 million daily active users falling into the hands of a competitor, such as Google," he said.

Google (GOOG, Fortune 500) reportedly offered to buy WhatsApp for $10 billion, but was rebuffed.

Still, not all investors are convinced the move is wise. Some traders on StockTwits criticized Facebook for the deal, which includes $4 billion in cash, $12 billion in stock and another $3 billion in grants.

"$FB paying $16 billion for an app $GOOG only wanted to pay $10 for? bad management = lower prices here for $FB stock under $60 coming," said StockTwits user UPB.

Facebook shares rose more than 3% to trade near $70 on Thursday.

Another trader believes the tech industry may be losing touch with reality.

"$FB already inflated stock is being used to buy another surreal valuation firm. reality strikes eventually. Remember all 1999 acquisitions?" said amigobulls.

BlackBerry has a text service too. The WhatsApp deal raised speculation that other companies with text-messaging services might be able to cash in as well. Shares of the troubled smartphone maker BlackBerry (BBRY), which operates the BBM messaging service, were up nearly 5%. Interestingly, BlackBerry and Facebook are the two best-performing stocks in CNNMoney's Tech 30 index this year.

There was a lot of talk on StockTwits about what new BlackBerry CEO John Chen will do with BBM. One trader took a very bold swipe at WhatsApp.

"$BBRY to think BBM is 10X better then what'scrap and being valued at $0. Chen you are the man to bring the value," said tonycr.

"$BBRY All it takes is for Chen to separate the four businesses and this stock will sky rocket. Simple as that," said duke2duke.

Wal-Mart (WMT, Fortune 500) reported quarterly results that topped expectations, but shares of the retail chain fell after it warned that "economic factors" would weigh on sales this year.

Tesla (TSLA) shares soared to a new all-time high after the company reported much stronger than expected profits and said it will sell 55% more vehicles this year than in 2013.

* Jack Lew discusses minimum wage, immigration and Bitcoin

Shares in BAE Systems (BAESF) were down after the defense contractor warned that U.S. budget cuts would hurt earnings in 2014.

Safeway (SWY, Fortune 500) shares gained after the supermarket chain's management announced they are in talks to sell the company.

Shares of DirecTV (DTV, Fortune 500) were up after the company announced plans to repurchase $3.5 billion of its own stock.

Actavis (ACT, Fortune 500) shares were up after it said earnings doubled in the fourth quarter. The company announced plans earlier this week to buy Forest Laboratories (FRX) for $25 billion. Forest shares were also higher.

After the market closed, Hewlett-Packard (HPQ, Fortune 500) reported better-than-expected quarterly earnings and issued an upbeat outlook. The stock was flat in extended trading.

Groupon (GRPN) and Priceline.com (PCLN, Fortune 500) both reported results that topped analysts' expectations. Both shares soared initially after hours but later pulled back.

Related: Bank of America CEO gets 17% pay hike

European markets ended mixed. Most Asian markets closed with losses.

HSBC's preliminary reading of Chinese manufacturing activity fell to a seven-month low in February. A survey of European purchasing managers also came in weaker than analysts were expecting.

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4:20 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] Equities ended the Thursday session on their highs with small caps in the lead. The Russell 2000 gained 1.1% while the S&P 500 rose 0.6% with all ten sectors posting gains.

Prior to the open, the market appeared to be headed for a lower start as disappointing data from China, Japan, and the eurozone weighed on index futures. Specifically, China's HSBC Manufacturing PMI fell to 48.3 from 49.5 (49.4 expected), Japan posted a record trade deficit of JPY1.82 trillion (JPY1.56 trillion expected), and the Manufacturing PMI for the eurozone (53.0 versus 54.0 expected) disappointed.

Despite the weak data from overseas, equity futures were able to find support when a better-than-expected Markit Manufacturing PMI for the U.S. was released (56.7 actual versus 53.0 expected). Historically, the data point has not been known for eliciting a noteworthy reaction in the market, but today's number likely fueled some short covering activity that sent futures back to their flat lines by the opening bell. In addition, buying ahead of tomorrow's options expiration likely factored into the morning rebound and the daylong rally.

Once the session got going, stocks saw a mild dip, which was erased within the first hour of action. Small caps enjoyed a strong session from the get-go after Facebook (FB 69.63, +1.57) announced the $16 billion acquisition of WhatsApp, a mobile messenger service.

With small caps charging ahead, the rest of the market followed suit. Although the S&P 500 ended on its high, the largest two sectors-financials (+0.3%) and technology (+0.3%)-could never catch up to the index. However, the market did receive support from the third largest sector-health care-which gained 0.9%.

Another countercyclical group-consumer staples (+0.5%)-finished behind the broader market as Wal-Mart (WMT 73.52, -1.33) weighed. The retail giant fell 1.8% after its cautious guidance overshadowed its bottom-line beat.

Also of note, the industrial sector (+0.8%) outperformed as transports rallied broadly. The Dow Jones Transportation Average jumped 1.6% with all 20 components posting gains. Despite the sharp move, the bellwether complex was unable to regain its 50-day moving average (7278), which was violated on Tuesday.

Treasuries ended modestly lower with the benchmark 10-yr yield up one basis point at 2.75%.

Participation was on the light side as 660 million shares changed hands on the floor of the NYSE.

Today's economic data featured four reports:
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The weekly initial claims level fell to 336,000 from an unrevised 339,000 while the Briefing.com consensus expected the reading to fall to 335,000. There were no seasonal biases or unusual events reported in the data. The initial claims level is holding firmly between 330,000 and 340,000.
The Conference Board's Index of Leading Indicators increased 0.3% in January after a downward revision to unchanged (from +0.1%) in December. The Briefing.com consensus expected the index to increase 0.4%. The increase in the index was largely the result of the initial claims level returning to normal levels following unusual seasonal biases in the data. That component added 0.24 percentage points to the January increase in the index after reducing growth by 0.34 percentage points in December.
Manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia region contracted for the first time since May 2013. The Philadelphia Fed's Business Outlook Survey for February dropped to -6.3 from 9.4 while the Briefing.com consensus expected the Index to decline to 7.4. Manufacturers commented to the Philly Fed that severe winter storms affected the region and reduced business activity. If this is true, then the contraction should not last long. We are hesitant to blame all of the weakness on the weather. Poor economic data have been reported for the last two months, and evidence suggests that the overall economy is to blame for the sluggishness and not necessarily the weather.
Consumer prices increased 0.1% in January, down from a 0.2% increase in December. The Briefing.com consensus expected the CPI to increase 0.2%. Inflation growth remains tame, and there was nothing in the data that suggests any type of breakout. Food prices rose 0.1% after being unchanged in December. Excluding food and energy, core CPI increased an in-line 0.1% for a second consecutive month.

Tomorrow's data will be limited to the Existing Home Sales report for January, which is set to be released at 10:00 ET.

Nasdaq Composite +2.2% YTD
Russell 2000 -0.1% YTD
S&P 500 -0.5% YTD
Dow Jones Industrial Average -2.7% YTD

3:35 pm: [BRIEFING.COM]

Apr gold extended yesterday's losses while the dollar index rose as investors digested yesterday's FOMC minutes. The minutes indicated that some officials said there should be a 'clear presumption' in support of continued tapering in $10 bln increments. The yellow metal brushed a session low of $1311.10 per ounce in early morning pit trade and eventually settled with a 0.2% loss at $1317.30 per ounce.
Mar silver also traded in negative territory, with prices trending near the $2.70 per ounce level. Unable to gain momentum, it settled at $21.68 per ounce, or 0.2% lower.
Apr crude oil spent most of its floor session in the red. Prices slipped to a session low of $102.40 per barrel following inventory data that showed a build of 0.973 mln barrels when a build of 2.0-2.3 mln barrels was anticipated. The energy component briefly rose above the unchanged line to a session high of $103.04 per barrel but settled with a 0.1% loss at $102.77 per barrel.
Mar natural gas fell to a session low of $5.88 per MMBtu following inventory data that showed a draw of 250 bcf when a larger draw of 251-257 bcf was anticipated. Prices reversed to a session high of $6.32 per MMBtu in early afternoon action but retreated back into negative territory heading into the close.
Natural gas eventually settled 1.6% lower at $6.05 per MMBtu.

3:00 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] Equity indices remain near their best levels of the session with one hour remaining in the trading day.

Following today's closing bell, participants will receive almost eighty quarterly reports with several S&P 500 components headlining the list. Most notably, Hewlett-Packard (HPQ 29.96, +0.51), Newmont Mining (NEM 24.42, +0.65), Nordstrom (JWN 59.56, +0.68), and Priceline.com (PCLN 1276.79, +3.03) will release their earnings reports this evening.

Tomorrow morning, another twenty reports will cross the wires with DISH Network (DISH 56.88, +0.36) headlining the list.

2:35 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (+0.6%) remains near its high while the Russell 2000 (+1.0%) continues to outperform.

Taking a look at individual sectors reveals a bit of a 'mechanized' feel to today's advance. Outside of financials (+0.2%), technology (+0.2%), and telecom services (+2.0%), the remaining seven groups all trade with gains close to 0.6% apiece.

Similarly, the Dow (+0.7%), Nasdaq (+0.6%), and S&P 500 (+0.6%) all display comparable gains.

Elsewhere, Treasuries remain modestly lower with the 10-yr yield up two basis points at 2.76%.

2:00 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] Not much has changed since our most recent update as the major averages remain near their highs.

This morning, participants received four quarterly reports, but outside of the disappointing Philadelphia Fed Survey for February (-6.3 actual versus 7.4 expected), the data was largely in-line with expectations.

The same could not be said for economic reports from overseas as China's HSBC Manufacturing PMI (48.3 versus 49.4 expected), Japan's trade balance (-JPY1.82 trillion versus -JPY1.56 trillion expected), and the Manufacturing PMI for the eurozone (53.0 versus 54.0 expected) all missed expectations. Furthermore, Eurozone Services PMI ticked up to 51.7, but still came in below the 51.9 that was expected by the consensus.

Tomorrow will be a bit quieter in terms of data with only the January Existing Home Sales report on the schedule. The report will be released at 10:00 ET and the Briefing.com consensus expects the reading to come in at 4.70 million.

Overseas, the Bank of Japan will release the minutes from its latest policy meeting while Great Britain will report its retail sales.

1:35 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] Equity indices remain near their highs with small caps maintaining their lead (Russell 2000 +0.9%). Thanks to today's gain, the Russell 2000 has narrowed its 2014 loss to just 0.2%. This puts the index ahead of the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 as the two remain lower on the year. The S&P 500 holds a year-to-date loss of 0.5% while the Dow remains down 2.6% so far in 2014.

With regard to individual sectors, health care and utilities have had the best showing so far this year while consumer staples and discretionary shares have struggled to keep pace with the broader market. Health care and utilities are both up near 6.0% this year while the two consumer sectors display year-to-date losses close to 3.0% apiece.

1:00 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] At midday, equity indices hover near their highs with the Russell 2000 (+0.9%) in the lead. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (+0.7%) also outperforms while the benchmark S&P 500 trades higher by 0.6% with all ten sectors sporting gains.

The market began the day on a quiet note after index futures erased their overnight losses, which were brought on by disappointing economic data from around the world. On that note, China's HSBC Manufacturing PMI (48.3 versus 49.4 expected), Japan's trade balance (-JPY1.82 trillion versus --JPY1.56 trillion expected), and the Manufacturing PMI for the eurozone (53.0 versus 54.0 expected) all missed expectations.

Like yesterday, the three top-weighted sectors-financials (+0.3%), health care (+0.8%), and technology (+0.1%)-lagged during the opening hour, but health care has since climbed into the lead. Meanwhile, financials and technology continue to underperform, which could turn into a headwind to the broader market. Together, the two sectors account for more than a third of the entire S&P 500.

Elsewhere, the industrial sector (+0.9%) outperforms thanks to the relative strength of transports. The Dow Jones Transportation Average is higher by 1.4%, but remains down 0.9% for the week.

Looking at individual movers of note, Facebook (FB 67.57, -0.49) trades down 0.7% after announcing it has acquired mobile messenger service, WhatsApp, for $16 billion.

Also of note, Tesla (TSLA 210.45, +16.81) has jumped to a fresh all-time high after reporting a bottom-line beat and issuing above-consensus guidance for deliveries.

Today's economic data featured four reports:

The weekly initial claims level fell to 336,000 from an unrevised 339,000 while the Briefing.com consensus expected the reading to fall to 335,000. There were no seasonal biases or unusual events reported in the data. The initial claims level is holding firmly between 330,000 and 340,000.
The Conference Board's Index of Leading Indicators increased 0.3% in January after a downward revision to unchanged (from +0.1%) in December. The Briefing.com consensus expected the index to increase 0.4%. The increase in the index was largely the result of the initial claims level returning to normal levels following unusual seasonal biases in the data. That component added 0.24 percentage points to the January increase in the index after reducing growth by 0.34 percentage points in December.
Manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia region contracted for the first time since May 2013. The Philadelphia Fed's Business Outlook Survey for February dropped to -6.3 from 9.4 while the Briefing.com consensus expected the Index to decline to 7.4. Manufacturers commented to the Philly Fed that severe winter storms affected the region and reduced business activity. If this is true, then the contraction should not last long. We are hesitant to blame all of the weakness on the weather. Poor economic data have been reported for the last two months, and evidence suggests that the overall economy is to blame for the sluggishness and not necessarily the weather.
Consumer prices increased 0.1% in January, down from a 0.2% increase in December. The Briefing.com consensus expected the CPI to increase 0.2%. Inflation growth remains tame, and there was nothing in the data that suggests any type of breakout. Food prices rose 0.1% after being unchanged in December. Excluding food and energy, core CPI increased an in-line 0.1% for a second consecutive month.

12:30 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (+0.6%) continues to trade near its best level of the session, which puts the benchmark index less than 11 points away from its all-time high of 1850.84. Around this time yesterday, the S&P 500 made a run towards the all-time high, but was rejected swiftly and continued retreating for the remainder of the day. The financial sector paced yesterday's slide and the underperformance has carried over into today.

Regional banks weighed on the financial space, sending the SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE 37.82, -0.01) lower by 2.8%. The ETF trades flat today while the broader sector trades higher by 0.3%.

12:00 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] Equity indices remain near their best levels of the session with the Russell 2000 (+0.6%) maintaining its outperformance. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 holds a more modest gain of 0.4% with nine sectors trading in the green.

The telecom services sector (+1.8%) trades well ahead of the remaining groups thanks to a 3.0% gain in the shares of Verizon (VZ 47.94, +1.41) while other advancing sectors display gains between 0.2% (consumer discretionary) and 0.8% (energy). Also of note, the two top-weighted sectors-financials and technology-continue to lag. Both groups trade little changed.

Elsewhere, Treasuries sit near their lows with the benchmark 10-yr yield up two basis points at 2.76%.

11:30 am: [BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 trades higher by 0.3% while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (+0.4%) outperforms.

The price-weighted Dow trades ahead of the broader market thanks to gains in 24 of its 30 components. Of the 24 advancers, six trade with gains of 1.0% or more. Verizon (VZ 48.13, +1.60) is the top performer, up 3.5%, but the stock does not carry much influence over the index due to its relatively low share price. Meanwhile, the largest Dow component, Visa (V 223.51, -0.37), trades lower by 0.2%.

Like Visa, the broader technology sector (-0.2%) holds a modest loss. Elsewhere, the financial sector hovers right below its flat line while the remaining nine groups display gains.

11:00 am: [BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (+0.3%) trades at a fresh session high after seeing a brief dip into the red. Financials, health care, and technology contributed to the earlier retreat and two groups-financials (+0.2%) and technology (-0.1%)-continue to trail the broader market. Health care, meanwhile, has climbed into the lead. The sector trades higher by 0.6% with help from biotechnology. The iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 264.72, +3.24) trades higher by 1.3%.

Elsewhere, the industrial sector (+0.5%) has drawn strength from transports. The Dow Jones Transportation Average trades higher by 1.1%, but remains down 1.2% for the week.

10:35 am: [BRIEFING.COM]

The dollar index has been holding gains today, which continues to weigh on commodities this morning such as metals and crude oil
Apr gold is currently -0.5% at $1313.80/oz, Mar silver is -0.6% at $21.71/oz. Mar copper is -0.1% at $3.28/lb
Mar crude oil put in a new session low of $102.79/barrel this morning and is now -0.1% at $103.17/barrel.
Natural gas futures were about 1.2% lower at $6.08 just ahead of inventory data
Following the data, which showed a draw of 250 bcf vs expectations of a draw of 251-257 bcf
Mar nat gas is now -2.4% at $6.00/MMBtu

10:00 am: [BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 has slipped below its flat as three influential sectors-- financials (-0.4%), health care (-0.1%), and technology (-0.4%)--retreated from their opening levels. The performance of the three top cyclical groups bears watching throughout the day as they represent more than 46% of the entire S&P 500.

Just reported, the Leading Indicators report for January increased 0.3%. That followed a flat December reading, and was worse than the 0.4% uptick expected by the Briefing.com consensus.

Separately, the February Philadelphia Fed Survey fell to -6.3 from 9.4. Economists polled by Briefing.com had expected that the Survey would slip to 7.4.

9:40 am: [BRIEFING.COM] The major averages began the day on a modestly higher note with the Russell 2000 (+0.4%) setting the early pace. Meanwhile, the S&P trades higher by 0.1% with eight of ten sectors showing early gains.

Overall, countercyclical groups have had the best showing so far as health care (+0.2%), telecom services (+0.5%), and utilities (+0.5%) outperform while consumer staples (unch) lag.

On the cyclical side, two of yesterday's laggards, consumer discretionary (+0.2%) and financials (+0.2%), have displayed early strength while energy (+0.1%) and technology (+0.1%) trade little changed.

Elsewhere, Treasuries hover near their flat lines after retreating from their overnight highs. The 10-yr yield is little changed at 2.74%.

January Leading Indicators and the Philadelphia Fed survey for February both set to be released at 10:00 ET.

9:20 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +1.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +0.20. The stock market is on track for a flat open as the S&P 500 futures hover one point above fair value. Overnight, futures retreated during the Asian session after China's HSBC Manufacturing PMI (48.3 versus 49.4 expected) and Japan's trade data (record deficit of JPY1.82 trillion) disappointed.

Futures on the S&P 500 then notched their lows just before the start of the European session, and have been climbing since. The latest spike that took futures back to their flat lines came after a better-than-expected Markit Manufacturing PMI reading of 56.7 (53.0 expected).

Today's economic data was largely in-line with expectations as initial claims came in at 336,000 (Briefing.com consensus 335,000) while January CPI rose 0.1% (Briefing.com consensus +0.2%). Two more reports remain on the schedule with January Leading Indicators and the Philadelphia Fed survey for February both set to be released at 10:00 ET.

Treasuries are little changed with the 10-yr yield hovering at 2.74%.

9:01 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +2.40. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -11.00. The S&P 500 futures have erased their losses and now trade two points above fair value.

Markets across Asia finished mostly in the red amid disappointing economic data. China's HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI eased to 48.3 from 49.5 (49.4 expected), representing a seven-month low for the series. Elsewhere, Japan posted a record trade deficit (JPY1.82 trillion actual versus JPY1.56 billion expected) as imports swelled 25.0% year-over-year (21.8% expected) and exports climbed 9.5% year-over-year (12.6% consensus). The lone bit of good news came from Singapore where GDP grew at 5.5% year-over-year (5.3% expected) thanks to a boost from manufacturing.

Japan's Nikkei fell 2.2%, slipping back below its 200-day moving average as sellers took charge in response to the disappointing trade data. Companies with strong ties to China were hit hard with Komatsu off 3.2% and Fanuc down 2.6%.
Hong Kong's Hang Seng lost 1.2%, falling for the first time in five sessions. The index dropped below its 200-day moving average amid widespread losses. Lenovo sank 4.5%, Tencent Holdings lost 3.1%, and Bank of Communication eased 2.7%.
China's Shanghai Composite shed 0.2%, giving up its early gains. Oil giant Sinopec was a notable outperformer, up the limit, 10%, on reports it is looking for a buyer of a 30% stake in its retail oil business.

Major European indices hover in the red with Germany's DAX (-1.3%) pacing the slide. Participants received several economic data points, which were mostly disappointing. Eurozone Manufacturing PMI fell to 53.0 from 54.0 (54.0 expected) while Services PMI ticked up to 51.7 from 51.6 (51.9 consensus). Germany's Manufacturing PMI fell to 54.7 from 56.5 (56.3 expected) while Services PMI increased to 55.4 from 53.1 (53.4 forecast). Separately, PPI ticked down 0.1% month-over-month (0.2% expected, 0.1% prior) while the year-over-year reading fell 1.1% (-0.8% forecast, -0.5% previous). French Manufacturing PMI dropped to 48.5 from 49.3 (49.6 expected) while Services PMI tumbled to 46.9 from 48.9 (49.4 consensus). Also of note, CPI fell 0.6% month-over-month (-0.3% consensus, 0.4% previous). Great Britain's CBI Industrial Trends Orders improved to 3 from -2 (5 expected).

Great Britain's FTSE is lower by 0.4% as miners lag. Anglo American, Fresnillo, and Rio Tinto are down between 2.1% and 3.6%. Utilities outperform with Centrica and United Utilities Group up 1.6% and 0.4%, respectively.
In France, the CAC holds a loss of 0.4%. Software company Gemalto is the weakest performer, down 7.0%. On the upside, oil company Technip outperforms with a gain of 8.2%.
Germany's DAX trades down 1.3%. Henkel is the weakest index member, trading lower by 5.1% after issuing a disappointing forecast. Utilities outperform with E.ON and RWE both up near 1.0% apiece.

8:33 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -5.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -11.00. The S&P 500 futures trade nearly six points below fair value.

The latest weekly initial jobless claims count totaled 336,000, which was a bit higher than the 335,000 that had been expected by the Briefing.com consensus. Today's tally was below the unrevised prior week count of 339,000. As for continuing claims, they rose to 2.981 million from 2.944 million.

Separately, January consumer prices rose 0.1% while the Briefing.com consensus expected an uptick of 0.2%. Core prices increased 0.1%, in-line with the Briefing.com consensus.

8:00 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -5.40. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -13.00. U.S. equity futures hold modest losses amid cautious overseas action. The S&P 500 futures trade more than five points below fair value.

Reviewing overnight developments:

Asian markets ended lower. China's Shanghai Composite -0.2%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng -1.2%, and Japan's Nikkei -2.2%.
In economic data:
China's HSBC Manufacturing PMI fell to 48.3 from 49.5 (49.4 expected).
Japan's trade deficit widened to JPY2.79 trillion from JPY1.30 trillion (deficit of JPY2.49 trillion expected) while the adjusted deficit widened to JPY1.82 trillion from JPY1.26 trillion (deficit of JPY1.56 trillion expected). Exports increased 9.5% (12.6% expected, 15.3% prior) and imports climbed 25.0% (21.8% forecast, 24.7% previous).
New Zealand's input PPI fell 0.7% quarter-over-quarter (0.9% consensus, 2.2% prior) while output PPI ticked down 0.4% quarter-over-quarter (1.4% expected, 2.4% previous).
Singapore's GDP grew 5.5% year-over-year (5.3% expected, 4.4% last).
Among news of note:
Bank of Japan member Yoshihisa Morimoto said the country's growth is expected to exceed potential even with the upcoming sales tax hike. In addition, Mr. Morimoto said the probability of meeting the 2.0% inflation target in the second half of the year is 'strong.'

Major European indices hover in the red. Great Britain's FTSE -0.4%, France's CAC -0.5%, and Germany's DAX -1.3%. Elsewhere, Spain's IBEX -0.9% and Italy's MIB -1.1%.
Participants received several economic data points:
Eurozone Manufacturing PMI fell to 53.0 from 54.0 (54.0 expected) while Services PMI ticked up to 51.7 from 51.6 (51.9 consensus).
Germany's Manufacturing PMI fell to 54.7 from 56.5 (56.3 expected) while Services PMI increased to 55.4 from 53.1 (53.4 forecast). Separately, PPI ticked down 0.1% month-over-month (0.2% expected, 0.1% prior) while the year-over-year reading fell 1.1% (-0.8% forecast, -0.5% previous).
French Manufacturing PMI dropped to 48.5 from 49.3 (49.6 expected) while Services PMI tumbled to 46.9 from 48.9 (49.4 consensus). Also of note, CPI fell 0.6% month-over-month (-0.3% consensus, 0.4% previous).
Great Britain's CBI Industrial Trends Orders improved to 3 from -2 (5 expected).
In news:
With social unrest in the Ukraine on the rise, French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius said his goal is to push the country's authorities toward general elections. Separately, Russia said it will not halt its aid payment to Ukraine despite yesterday's reports to the contrary.

In U.S. corporate news:

DirectTV (DTV 73.17, +0.23): +0.3% after beating the Capital IQ consensus estimate by 23 cents on better-than-expected revenue.
Facebook (FB 65.85, -2.21): -3.3% after announcing the acquisition of a mobile messenger service, WhatsApp, for $16 billion.
Safeway (SWY 36.00, +1.39): +4.0% after reporting an earnings beat on below-consensus revenue. The company issued below-consensus guidance and said it is in discussions regarding a potential sale of the company.
Tesla (TSLA 216.44, +22.80): +11.8% after beating on earnings and guiding fiscal-year 2014 deliveries ahead of analyst estimates.
Wal-Mart (WMT 74.00, -0.85): -1.1% following its earnings beat and below-consensus guidance.

Weekly initial claims and January CPI will be reported at 8:30 ET while January Leading Indicators and the Philadelphia Fed survey for February will both be released at 10:00 ET.

6:32 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -3.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -4.00.

6:32 am: [BRIEFING.COM] Nikkei...1449.18...-317.40...-2.20%. Hang Seng...22394.08...-270.40...-1.20%.

6:32 am: [BRIEFING.COM] FTSE...6778.59...-18.10...-0.30%. DAX...9562.18...-97.90...-1.00%.

Treasuries Set for 3rd Weekly Loss on Outlook for Spring Growth

By Wes Goodman Feb 20, 2014 9:40 PM ET

Treasuries headed for a third weekly loss on speculation the economy will pick up when winter ends.

The Bloomberg U.S. Treasury Bond Index (BUSY) has fallen 0.3 percent this month as the Federal Reserve indicated it will continue to cut its bond purchases given the economic outlook. Snow and ice storms have depressed data on retail sales and employment. An industry report today will probably show existing home sales fell in January from December, based on a Bloomberg News survey of economists.

“The weather is a temporary issue,” said Kim Youngsung, head of fixed income at Samsung Asset Management Co. in Seoul. “The U.S. economy is going to get better. Yields will be higher by the end of the year.” The company is South Korea’s largest private bond investor with the equivalent of $105.4 billion in assets.

U.S. 10-year yields were little changed at 2.75 percent as of 11:22 a.m. in Tokyo, Bloomberg Bond Trader data show. The price of the 2.75 percent note due in February 2024 was 99 31/32. The yield has climbed from 2.64 percent over three weeks. It will be more than 3 percent by year-end, Kim said.

Japan’s 10-year borrowing cost was 0.59 percent. It fell to 0.58 percent yesterday, the lowest level since November. Australia’s rose six basis points to 4.2 percent, approaching a one-week high.

Haven Demand

The decline in Treasuries is a shift from January, when the Bloomberg index surged 1.8 percent, the most since May 2012, as a rout in emerging-market currencies spurred demand for the haven of government debt.

A custom Bloomberg gauge tracking 20 developing-nation currencies has risen 1.1 percent in February, stabilizing after tumbling 3 percent in January.

Long-term Treasuries rank the worst-performing government bonds over the past year. U.S. debt due in a decade and longer slid 5 percent in the period, the biggest loss of 144 bond indexes compiled Bloomberg and the European Federation of Financial Analysts Societies.

Minutes of the Federal Reserve’s most recent meeting released this week signaled policy makers will probably continue to reduce the bond-buying program they use to help support the economy. “A few” officials said “it might be appropriate to increase the federal funds rate relatively soon.”

The Fed is buying $65 billion of Treasury and mortgage debt a month after cutting the amount by $10 billion in January and again in February.

Policy makers have kept their target for federal funds, or overnight loans between banks, in a range of zero to 0.25 percent for five years to support the U.S. economy. The odds of an increase to 0.5 percent or more by January are about 11 percent, based on futures contracts.

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney, Reuters and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader Image@ http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader

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