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 Post subject: February 14th Friday Trade Results - Profit $4,422.50
PostPosted: Fri Feb 14, 2014 6:59 pm 
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Joined: Sat Jan 10, 2009 2:06 pm
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Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
Phone: +1 708 572-4885
Free Chat Room: http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=164
Business Hours: 8am - 5pm est (Mon - Fri)
questions@thestrategylab.com (24/7)
http://twitter.com/wrbtrader (24/7)

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click on the above image to view today's performance verification

Price Action Trade Performance for Today: Emini TF ($TF_F) futures @ $1,110.00 dollars or +11.10 points, Emini ES ($ES_F) futures @ $3,312.50 dollars or +66.25 points, Light Crude Oil CL ($CL_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.00 points, Gold GC ($GC_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.00 points and EuroFX 6E ($6E_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.0000 ticks. Total Profit @ $4,422.50 dollars

Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures: 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures: 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup
Light Crude Oil CL (WTI) Futures: 1 tick or 0.01 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup
Gold GC Futures: 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup
EuroFX 6E Futures: 1 tick or 0.0001 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup

In addition, all of my trades were posted real-time in the chat room. You can read today's chat room logs for details about each one of my trades via price action trading from entry to exit (e.g. time, price, contract size) along with price action commentary as the trade traversed to its completion...all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=127&t=1722

Also, posted below are direct links to information about my price action trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis). I'm primarily a day trader because it suits my personal lifestyle but I do occasionally swing trade and position trade. Simply, my trade method is applicable for position trading, swing trading and day trading.

Image ##TheStrategyLab Chat Room is free. Members and I use the chat room to post WRB Analysis commentary, real-time trades and to post anything else related to trading. The chat room helps me tremendously in my own trading because I use it to document (journal) my thought process from trade to trade so that I can easily review at a later date my thoughts as I interacted with the markets...info I can not get from my broker statements. Also, this is not a signal calling chat room where a head trader tells you when to buy or sell. If you join the chat room and then you do not ask any questions about WRB Analysis in your own trading or you do not document (journal) your own thoughts from trade to trade...the chat room will not be useful to you. Chat room access instructions @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=164

Image Price Action Analysis via WRB Analysis Tutorials @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=119&t=718

Image Trade Signal Strategies via Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our price action trade strategies with support (answering your questions) prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Image Trading Plan Daily Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=232&t=2209

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Market Context Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, CNNMoney, Reuters and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED/ECB/BOE/IMF actions or any important global economic events (e.g. Eurozone, MarketWatch.com) that had an impact on today's price action in many trading instruments I monitor during the trading day. Simply, I'm a strong believer that key market events causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility resulting in trade opportunities (swing points and strong continuation price actions) that reach profit targets. Thus, I pay attention to these key market events, intermarket analysis (e.g. Forex EurUsd, EuroFX 6E futures, Gold GC futures, Light Crude Oil (WTI) CL & Brent Oil futures, Eurex DAX futures, Euronext FTSE100 futures, Emini ES futures, Emini TF futures, Treasury ZB futures and U.S. Dollar Index futures) while using WRB Analysis from one trade to the next trade to give me the market context for price action trading before the appearance of my technical analysis trade signals. Therefore, I maintain these archives to allow me to understand what was happening on any given trading day in the past involving key market events to help better understand my trade decisions (day trading, swing trading, position trading)...something I can not get from my broker statements alone.

Feel The Love: Dow Jumps Nearly 130 Points

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click on the above image to view today's price action of key markets

NEW YORK (CNNMoney)
Investors showed their affection for stocks on Valentine's Day by sending the Dow up more than 100 points and pushing gold prices to new highs for the year.

The Dow Jones industrial average jumped 127 points Friday. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq were both higher as well.

After a lackluster January, the market has been on a tear in February. All three indexes ended the week higher.

The S&P 500 has gained more than 2% this week and is a few points away from its record closing high. The Dow rose than 2%, while the Nasdaq added nearly 3% and is now on a seven day winning streak. The market will be closed Monday in observance of Presidents Day.

Gold has also gained momentum. The price of the precious metal rose above $1,320, the highest level since November. Gold rose 4% this week.

Investors fled the gold market last year as stocks rallied to record highs. But shares of the largest gold-backed ETF have been strong this year even on days when stocks move higher, a trend one StockTwits trader pointed out. The SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) was up more than 1%.

* Video - Gold shines while Bitcoin tanks

"$GLD intraday: another fantastic and counterintuitive move, rises with risk on. Already in a kind of self-fulfilling uptrend?" said WolfHB.

* 6 stocks we love

Investors welcomed Congressional testimony on Tuesday from new Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen, who stressed the need to maintain the policies of her predecessor, Ben Bernanke. The Fed has been scaling back its bond buying this year, but U.S. monetary policy remains highly favorable for stocks.

Meanwhile, the latest economic news has been mixed. A lackluster report on January retail sales Thursday added to concerns that a colder-than-normal winter is putting a damper on the economy.

"Something called 'Winter' seems to be getting in the way of a clear read at the moment," said Nick Colas, chief market strategist at brokerage ConvergeEx Group. But he said "seasonal vagaries" in economic data during February are as common as "last minute calls to the florist."

The biggest loser. Weight Watchers (WTW) shares plunged more than 26% after the company slashed its earnings forecast and CEO Jim Chambers said 2014 would be "challenging."

Traders on StockTwits had some interesting theories on what was behind the poor outlook.

"$WTW I have always admired this company but I'm afraid science may kill it. People just want to pop a fat pill and they may be imminent!" said MrX.

If science isn't to blame, then it's seasonality, according to another trader.

"Definitely the weather. Nobody and I mean nobody eats vitamins or tries to lose weight in the winter. $WTW $GNC $VSI," said mytfine.

Shares of GNC (GNC) and Vitamin Shoppe (VSI) were also down sharply.

But one trader was still betting on Weight Watchers, based on anecdotal evidence.

"$WTW noticed the freezers in grocery stores are packed with weight watchers meals...shift already under way," said outsideday.

Shares of companies in the legal marijuana industry surged after the Justice Department issued guidelines for banks to legally provide financial services to state-licensed marijuana businesses.

Medbox (MDBX), which makes safes for marijuana dispensaries, were up more than 20%. Investors also bid up thinly-traded shares of companies like GreenGro (GRNH)and GrowLife (PHOT), which support cannabis cultivation.

Jos. A. Bank (JOSB) shares edged higher after the clothing retailer announced that it was acquiring Eddie Bauer for $825 million. Shares of rival Men's Wearhouse (MW), which is hoping to buy Jos. A. Bank, were lower too.

Shares of Trulia (TRLA) fell sharply after the real estate website said losses in the fourth quarter widened from last year.

Cliffs Natural Resources (CLF, Fortune 500) jumped 5% after the company's quarterly results beat analysts' expectations. The company also rejected a proposal from a hedge fund that is seeking to break the company up and replace its CEO. Cliffs was one of the biggest gainers in the S&P 500 Friday.

Shares of Campbell Soup (CPB, Fortune 500) rose after the company reported better-than-expected earnings. Hyatt Hotels (H) also reported earnings that topped expectations, sending shares higher in early trading.

Kraft Foods (KRFT, Fortune 500) shares gained following quarterly results that beat expectations.

Most European markets ended higher, thanks to slightly stronger-than-expected fourth-quarter growth figures. Eurozone GDP rose by 0.5% compared to the year-ago quarter, in its first sign of annual growth since 2011. Asian markets ended mixed.

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4:20 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The stock market ended an upbeat week on a positive note. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (+0.8%) paced the advance while the S&P 500 gained 0.5%. The Nasdaq (+0.1%) lagged, but was able to finish at its highest level since late 2000.

Today's advance capped an impressive week during which the benchmark S&P 500 gained 2.3%. Even though stocks rallied sharply, it is worth noting that all five sessions of the week saw below-average volume while bellwether groups like financials and transports struggled to keep pace with the broader market. The financial sector added just 0.2% on Friday, extending its weekly gain to 1.6%. For its part, the Dow Jones Transportation Average (+0.3%) added 0.9% for the week.

Similar to financials, other top-weighted sectors like health care (+0.4%) and technology (+0.2%) lagged while consumer discretionary (+0.6%), energy (+1.5%), industrials (+0.7%), and materials (+0.7%) picked up the slack.

The energy sector drew considerable strength from its largest member, ExxonMobil (XOM 94.11, +2.68), which surged 2.9%. The Dow component regained its 100- and 200-day moving averages in a move that was aided by an ISI Group upgrade to 'Buy' from 'Neutral.' On a related note, crude oil ended little changed at $100.29/bbl.

Elsewhere among commodities, precious metals remained on a torrid pace. Gold futures posted their seventh day of gains, climbing more than 5.0% in that timeframe. Meanwhile, silver capped an eight-day run that saw the metal jump nearly 8.0%. This translated into another strong session for gold miners as the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX 26.35, +0.48) rose 1.9%.

Mining shares contributed to the outperformance of the materials sector, which also benefitted from gains among steelmakers after Cliffs Natural Resources (CLF 23.16, +1.26) reported better-than-expected results.

Staying on the earnings theme, apparel retailer V.F. Corp (VFC 56.85, -3.04) slumped after announcing disappointing results and issuing a profit warning. The stock tumbled 5.1%, which kept a lid on its peers. The rest of the discretionary sector held up well with help from homebuilders. The iShares Dow Jones US Home Construction ETF (ITB 25.21, +0.28) rose 1.1%.

Interestingly, builder shares outperformed even as Treasury yields inched higher. The benchmark 10-yr yield rose one basis point to 2.74% after ending last week at 2.68%.

As mentioned earlier, trading volume was well below average with only 609 million shares changing hands at the NYSE. Today's final tally represented the lowest total since January 3.

Today's economic data included three reports:

Export prices, excluding agriculture, ticked up 0.2% in January after increasing 0.3% in the prior reading. Excluding oil, import prices rose 0.3%, which follows last month's downtick of 0.1%.
Industrial production declined 0.3% in January after increasing 0.3% in December while the Briefing.com consensus expected an increase of 0.3%. Once again, the hard economic data did not mesh with the results in the ISM report and the related regional surveys. Those reports showed solid, albeit slightly unsteady production levels in January. Instead of translating into slightly positive growth, however, actual manufacturing production fell 0.8% in January. That was the largest drop since May 2009. Making matters worse, manufacturing production growth was revised down for each month going back to October. After the revisions, fourth quarter manufacturing production only increased 4.2%, down from an originally reported gain of 6.2%. This comes after the ISM Production Index was recorded above 60 during that entire time, suggesting manufacturers are definitely not doing what they are saying in the surveys. The motor vehicle sector was hit especially hard in January. Assemblies fell by 1.0 million, from 11.64 million in December to 11.62 million in January.
The preliminary reading for the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for February was unchanged at 81.2 while the Briefing.com consensus expected the index to fall to 80.2. The Current Conditions Index weakened slightly, falling from 96.8 in January to 94.0. This was offset by an increase in the Expectations Index from 71.2 to 73.0 in February.

Bond and equity markets will be closed on Monday for Presidents' Day.

Nasdaq Composite +1.6% YTD
S&P 500 -0.5% YTD
Russell 2000 -1.1% YTD
Dow Jones Industrial Average -2.6%

Week in Review: Stocks Charge Ahead Amid Light Volume

The stock market began the week on a subdued note. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 posted gains between 0.1% and 0.5% with the Nasdaq Composite ending in the lead. Overall, the session had a 'wait-and-see' feel as many participants stuck to the sidelines ahead of Janet Yellen's testimony on monetary policy. The limited participation was reflected in the trading volume as only 640 million shares changed hands at the NYSE.

On Tuesday, the stock market rallied steadily with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (+1.2%) providing the lead. Thanks to the advance, the Dow narrowed its 2014 loss to 3.5% while the Nasdaq (+1.0%) was able to swing from a loss to a year-to-date gain of 0.4%. The S&P 500 (+1.1%) regained its 50-day moving average with all ten sectors contributing to the climb. Contrary to the expectations of many, Janet Yellen's testimony before the House Financial Services Committee was uneventful as the Chair struck a tone consistent with remarks made by her predecessor. When asked about the impact of the disappointing jobs reports for December and January on the Fed's reaction function, Ms. Yellen said it would be premature to alter policy based on a limited sample size. All ten sectors took part in the advance with energy (+1.4%) and materials (+1.2%) ending in the lead. Despite the broad rally, trading volume was below average as less than 700 million shares changed hands at the NYSE.

Equity indices took a bit of a breather on Wednesday after the S&P 500 surged nearly 4.5% in the six sessions since February 3. The benchmark index shed less than a point while the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.2%. Overall, the session was very quiet as the key averages respected narrow ranges. The S&P 500 spent the bulk of the trading day near its flat line while the Nasdaq (+0.2%) outperformed. Again, participation was well below average with less than 630 million shares changing hands at the NYSE.

Thursday's session saw the stock market rally steadily throughout the trading day despite starting on a lower note. Small caps led the way with the Russell 2000 climbing 1.3% while the S&P 500 advanced 0.6%. The benchmark index was down as much as 0.6% at the start after overnight weakness in the futures market set the stage for a lower open. The losses in futures coincided with a wave of yen strength that once again stoked fears about potential forced unwinds of the yen-based carry trade. Adding to the early weakness was a disappointing retail sales report for January. Even though stocks opened lower, the S&P 500 found support at its 50-day moving average in the 1810 area. The index also drew strength from the retreat in the yen as the dollar/yen pair climbed off its low just under the 101.75 level.

3:30 pm: [BRIEFING.COM]

Mar silver outperformed in the commodities space today, trading comfortably above the $21 per ounce level. Prices rose as high as $21.44 per ounce, a new high since November. Holding on to the momentum, silver settled 5.1% higher at $21.42 per ounce, booking a weekly gain of 7.5%.
Apr gold extended gains for a sixth consecutive session as the dollar index traded lower. The yellow metal traded in a tight range between $1313.80 per ounce and $1321.50 per ounce and settled with a 1.4% gain at $1319.00 per ounce. Today's advance brought gains for the week to 4.4%.
Mar crude oil spent most of today's floor trade in negative territory. It brushed a session low of $99.43 per barrel shortly after equity markets opened but then trended higher for the remainder of the session. Buyers pushed prices up to a session high of $100.41 per barrel moments before the energy component settled at $100.29 per barrel, booking a gain of 0.4% for the week.
Mar natural gas chopped around between positive and negative territory. It touched a session low of $5.16 per MMBtu in morning action and later brushed a session high of $5.32 per MMBtu. Natural gas eventually settled unchanged at $5.21 per MMBtu, bringing gains for the week to 9.0%.

3:00 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] Heading into the final hour of action, the major averages hover at their best levels of the day. The Dow (+0.9%) remains in the lead while the Nasdaq (+0.2%) and Russell 2000 (+0.2%) continue to lag. Even though the Nasdaq underperforms, it has been able to reach a new year-to-date high, which also marks the best level for the tech-heavy index since late 2000.

Elsewhere, the S&P 500 (+0.6%) hovers less than ten points away from its all-time intraday high of 1850.84, which was notched on January 15.

2:30 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 trades higher by 0.5% with 90 minutes remaining in the session.

This week, participants received a handful of economic data points with January retail sales (-0.4% actual versus 0.0% Briefing.com consensus) and January industrial production (-0.3% actual versus +0.3% Briefing.com consensus) posting noteworthy misses; however, equities have been able to shake off those reports.

Next week will start on a quiet note but on Wednesday, January housing starts, PPI, and the latest FOMC minutes will cross the wires. On Thursday, participants will focus on CPI while Friday will bring the existing home sales report for January.

2:05 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 has extended to a fresh session high, trimming its year-to-date loss to 0.5%. The recent move higher was fueled by sectors that have displayed relative strength throughout the session. The energy sector (+1.3%) remains the clear leader while other cyclical groups like consumer discretionary (+0.7%), industrials (+0.7%), and materials (+0.7%) also trade ahead of the broader market.

Elsewhere, financials (+0.1%), health care (+0.3%), and technology (+0.3%) continue to lag, which is a dynamic we have been highlighting throughout the day. In particular, the underperformance of financials has been a recurring theme this week and it will be interesting to see how the bellwether sector performs next week.

1:25 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] Another day, another move higher for the S&P 500 which is looking to secure its sixth gain in the last seven trading sessions. Today's move has moved it closer to erasing all of January's decline.

When January ended, the S&P 500 was down 3.6% for the year. Thanks to the latest buy-the-dip rally, though, the S&P 500 is now down just 0.7% year-to-date.

Like yesterday, today's main piece of economic data didn't provide the most encouraging read on things. Industrial production declined 0.3% in January, led by a 0.8% decline in manufacturing output.

The Federal Reserve said the severe weather was "partly" to blame for the manufacturing weakness. That implied a sense that other factors also kept manufacturing output from being all that it can be. One of the striking features of today's report is that manufacturing output was revised lower for both October and November when weather was definitely not the escape excuse it is today.

In any event, the stock market is filtering things just fine, believing either that economic activity will rebound sharply as better weather arrives or that the potential for more weak data increases the likelihood of the Fed deciding to hold off on further tapering moves. It's a win-win perspective that can fuel things in a thinly-traded market.

12:55 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] At midday, the major averages trade in mixed fashion. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (+0.5%) and S&P 500 (+0.3%) hover near their highs while the Nasdaq (-0.1%) and Russell 2000 (-0.1%) remain in the red.

Equities began the session on the defensive, but the Dow and S&P 500 were quick to shake off the early losses. Interestingly, the outperformance of the Dow comes as the index plays catch-up after trailing the broader market since the start of the year. Including today's advance, the Dow remains lower by 2.8% in 2014 versus a 0.7% decline for the S&P 500.

The price-weighted Dow has drawn strength from most of its components as 20 index members display gains. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 has been unable to break above the 1836 level due to the underperformance of its three largest sectors-financials (-0.1%), health care (+0.1%), and technology (+0.1%). Strikingly, the financial sector lags for the second consecutive session and is the weakest group of the week. The sector holds a week-to-date gain of 1.3% versus a 2.1% advance in the S&P 500.

Even though the three top-weighted sectors lag, the remaining groups have picked up the slack. Consumer discretionary, industrials, and materials display gains between 0.4% and 0.5% while energy (+1.2%) leads.

The energy sector owes its outperformance to ExxonMobil (XOM 93.90, +2.47), which trades higher by 2.7%. Elsewhere, the other commodity-linked space, materials (+0.5%), has been held up by miners and steelmakers. Steel stocks trade broadly higher following better-than-expected results from Cliffs Natural Resources (CLF 23.16, +1.26) while miners have benefited from continued gains in gold. The yellow metal is working on its seventh consecutive advance, trading higher by 1.4% at $1317.60/ozt.

Elsewhere, Treasuries display modest losses with the 10-yr yield up one basis point at 2.74%.

Today's economic data included three reports:

Export prices, excluding agriculture, ticked up 0.2% in January after increasing 0.3% in the prior reading. Excluding oil, import prices rose 0.3%, which follows last month's downtick of 0.1%.
Industrial production declined 0.3% in January after increasing 0.3% in December while the Briefing.com consensus expected an increase of 0.3%. Once again, the hard economic data did not mesh with the results in the ISM report and the related regional surveys. Those reports showed solid, albeit slightly unsteady production levels in January. Instead of translating into slightly positive growth, however, actual manufacturing production fell 0.8% in January. That was the largest drop since May 2009. Making matters worse, manufacturing production growth was revised down for each month going back to October. After the revisions, fourth quarter manufacturing production only increased 4.2%, down from an originally reported gain of 6.2%. This comes after the ISM Production Index was recorded above 60 during that entire time, suggesting manufacturers are definitely not doing what they are saying in the surveys. The motor vehicle sector was hit especially hard in January. Assemblies fell by 1.0 million, from 11.64 million in December to 11.62 million in January.
The preliminary reading for the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for February was unchanged at 81.2 while the Briefing.com consensus expected the index to fall to 80.2. The Current Conditions Index weakened slightly, falling from 96.8 in January to 94.0. This was offset by an increase in the Expectations Index from 71.2 to 73.0 in February.

12:35 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The major averages remain near their recent levels as the quiet session continues.

So far, today's session has fallen right in line with the previous four affairs of the week that produced below-average volume. Tuesday was the most active session of the week, but that day's total of 697 million shares was still short of the 200-day moving average, which sits in the 715 million area. The other three sessions of the week all produced totals in the neighborhood of 650 million shares.

At this juncture, only 245 million shares have changed hands at the NYSE floor, suggesting we are likely to see another below-average final tally.

11:55 am: [BRIEFING.COM] The Dow Jones Industrial Average (+0.5%) has climbed to a fresh high while the other indices remain inside previously-established ranges.

The price-weighted Dow outperforms thanks to gains in 22 of its 30 components. Of the 22, six are up more than 1.0% and two of the six-Cisco Systems (CSCO 22.72, +0.45) and ExxonMobil (XOM 93.63, +2.20)-trade higher by 2.0% or more. On the downside, Verizon (VZ 46.63, -0.68) is the weakest member, down 1.5%.

Today's outperformance of the Dow comes as the index plays a bit of catch-up after trailing the broader market since the start of the year. Including today's gain, the index remains lower by 2.8% in 2014 versus a 0.7% decline for the S&P 500.

11:30 am: [BRIEFING.COM] Equity indices remain near their recent levels with the S&P 500 hovering just north of the 1833 area. Similarly, sector standing hasn't changed much with energy (+0.9%) maintaining its lead.

It should be noted that heavily-weighted financials (-0.3%), health care (unch), and technology (+0.1%) continue to lag, which has the potential to derail the broader market considering the three groups account for more than 46% of the entire S&P 500. Furthermore, financials trail the broader market for the second day in the row and the sector is on track to end the week behind the remaining nine groups with a gain of 1.3% versus a 2.1% increase for the S&P 500.

Elsewhere, Treasuries have returned to their morning low. The 10-yr yield is higher by two basis points at 2.75%.

11:05 am: [BRIEFING.COM] The Dow Jones Industrial Average (+0.4%) and S&P 500 (+0.2%) hover near their best levels of the session while the Nasdaq Composite (-0.2%) and Russell 2000 (-0.3%) remain in the red.

Despite a lower start, seven of ten sectors now trade in the green, which leaves financials (-0.1%), technology (-0.1%), and telecom services (-1.0%) as the only decliners.

On the upside, the energy sector (+1.1%) continues to lead while another commodity-related group-materials (+0.5%)-follows not far behind. Steelmakers have made a significant contribution to the outperformance after Cliffs Natural Resources (CLF 23.34, +1.44) beat on earnings and revenue. The stock trades up 6.6% while the broader Market Vectors Steel ETF (SLX 47.60, +0.55) holds an advance of 1.2%. Miners have also factored into the strength with the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX 26.25, +0.38) trading higher by 1.4%.

10:35 am: [BRIEFING.COM]

The dollar index is in the red this morning, which is giving precious metals a boost. The index is currently inching off its session low
Gold and silver both have been in positive territory all session so far, led by silver prices.
Apr gold is now +1.3% at $1317.30/oz, while Mar silver is +4% at $21.22/z
Crude oil futures have been in the red all day and just recently moved back below the $100/barrel mark after selling off.
Mar crude is -0.4% at $99.94/barrel
Natural gas futures have been volatile this morning and sold off in recent trade to the unch line and is now at +0.3% at $5.24/MMBtu

10:00 am: [BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 has climbed back to its flat line with help from energy, materials, and industrials. The three sectors display gains between 0.1% and 0.6%.

The preliminary reading for the February University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey revealed no change from the final January reading of 81.2. The Briefing.com consensus expected a dip to 80.2.

9:50 am: [BRIEFING.COM] The major averages began the day on a lower note with the Russell 2000 (-0.3%) leading the early decline. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 is lower by 0.1% with nine of ten sectors hovering in the red.

The three top weighted sectors, technology, financials, and health care (in order of market cap) are all down near 0.3%. On the upside, the energy sector is the lone advancer, trading higher by 0.3% even as crude oil holds a loss of 0.9% at $99.46 per barrel.

So far, the early weakness has not translated into a rush for volatility protection as the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX 14.12, -0.02) trades little changed. Elsewhere, Treasuries are also flat with the 10-yr yield at 2.73%.

The preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey for February will cross the wires at 9:55 ET.

9:15 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -3.10. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -4.30. Equities are poised to begin the final session of the week near their flat lines as the S&P 500 futures hover three points below fair value. The benchmark index will begin the day looking to maintain its week-to-date gain of 1.8%.

Overnight, most Asian markets rallied, but Japan's Nikkei lost 1.5% while the yen strengthened, pressuring the dollar/yen pair back below the 102.00 level. In addition to weighing on the Nikkei, Yen strength has kept a lid on U.S. equity futures amid jitters regarding potential forced unwinds of the carry trade. European equities, meanwhile, trade higher, bolstered by in-line or better-than-expected GDP readings from several core and emerging economies.

Domestically, investors are responding to several quarterly reports. The materials sector is expected to receive support from steelmakers after Cliffs Natural Resources (CLF 23.40, +1.50) beat on earnings and revenue. On the downside, apparel retailers are likely to face pressure following disappointing results from V.F. Corp (VFC 56.35, -3.54).

Just reported, January industrial production decreased 0.3%, which was below the 0.3% increase expected by the Briefing.com consensus. Meanwhile, capacity utilization hit 78.5% while the Briefing.com consensus called for a reading of 79.4%.

8:59 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -2.60. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -2.00. The S&P 500 futures trade less than three points below fair value.

The major Asian bourses ended mostly higher while Japan's Nikkei (-1.5%) lagged. The market was pressured by yen strength as the dollar/yen pair dropped back below the 102.00 level after starting the session just shy of 102.50. In economic data, Chinese CPI saw a slightly hotter than expected reading of 2.5% year-over-year (2.4% expected) while PPI was in-line at -1.6% year-over-year. Elsewhere, India's Wholesale Price Index eased to 5.1% year-over-year (5.8% expected versus 6.2% previous).

Japan's Nikkei lost 1.5% as the stronger yen weighed. Real estate shares saw notable losses as Mitsui Fudosan and Sumitomo Realty & Development fell 5.9% and 6.5%, respectively.
Hong Kong's Hang Seng rallied 0.6% to its best week in five-months. Casino stocks paced the advance as Galaxy Entertainment added 2.4% and Sands China tacked on 0.9%.
China's Shanghai Composite gained 0.8%, climbing for the fifth time in six February sessions. Financials saw notable weakness with China Citic Bank giving back 1.8% after surging more than 35% over the first four trading days of the week.

Major European indices hold gains across the board with Italy's MIB (+1.7%) in the lead even after Prime Minister Enrico Letta submitted his resignation. The office of President Giorgio Napolitano said talks on forming a new government will begin after 5:00 PM local time. Like equities, Italian bonds took the news in stride and the benchmark 10-yr yield remains near 3.70%, representing the lowest level since late 2010.

Participants received several economic data points. Eurozone GDP rose 0.3% quarter-over-quarter (0.2% expected, 0.1% prior) while the year-over-year reading increased 0.5% (0.4% forecast, -0.3% last). Germany's GDP increased 0.4% (0.3% consensus, 0.3% prior) while the year-over-year reading reflected growth of 1.3% (1.3% expected, 1.1% previous). French GDP rose 0.3% quarter-over-quarter (0.2% consensus, -0.1% last) and nonfarm payrolls ticked up 0.1% quarter-over-quarter (-0.1% expected, -0.1% prior). Italy's GDP rose 0.1% quarter-over-quarter (0.1% expected, 0.0% prior) while the year-over-year reading declined 0.8% (-0.8% consensus, -1.9% last). Elsewhere, Spain's CPI fell 1.3% month-over-month (-1.3% expected, 0.1% prior) while the year-over-year reading ticked up 0.2%, as expected (0.3% previous).

Great Britain's FTSE is higher by 0.1%. Miners are showing strength with Antofagasta, Fresnillo, and Glencore Xstrata up between 1.8% and 4.7%. Staple stocks lag with WM Morrison Supermarkets and J Sainsbury down 2.2% and 1.7%, respectively.
In France, the CAC trades up 0.5% with Renault in the lead. The carmaker is higher by 3.2%. On the downside, consumer names Danone, L'Oreal, and Pernod Ricard display losses between 0.3% and 1.2%.
Germany's DAX holds an advance of 0.6%. ThyssenKrupp leads with a gain of 2.9% after reporting better-than-expected results.
Italy's MIB outperforms with a gain of 1.6% as banks display strength. Banco Popolare and UniCredit are both up near 2.7%.

8:34 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -1.40. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +1.20. The S&P 500 futures remain less than two points below fair value.

Export prices, excluding agriculture, ticked up 0.2% in January after increasing 0.5% in the prior reading. Excluding oil, import prices rose 0.3%, which follows last month's downtick of 0.1%.

8:02 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -1.70. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -0.30. U.S. equity futures trade little changed amid upbeat overseas action. The S&P 500 futures hover less than two points below fair value.

Reviewing overnight developments:

Asian markets ended on mixed note. Hong Kong's Hang Seng +0.6%, China's Shanghai Composite +0.8%, and Japan's Nikkei -1.5% while the yen strengthened, sending the dollar/yen pair below 102.00.
In economic data:
China's CPI rose 1.0% month-over-month (0.7% consensus, 0.3% last) while the year-over-year reading increased 2.5% (2.3% forecast, 2.5% prior). Separately, PPI fell 1.6% year-over-year (-1.7% expected, -1.4% last).
Japan's weekly foreign bonds buying report indicated net sales in the amount of JPY617.20 billion (-JPY1.82 trillion prior).
Singapore's retail sales fell 5.5% year-over-year (-7.0% expected, -8.6% last).
India's WPI came in at 5.05% (5.80% consensus, 6.16% prior).
New Zealand's FPI rose 1.2% month-over-month (-0.1% previous).
Among news of note:
China's money market rates eased with one-week SHIBOR seeing the largest decline. The rate fell nearly 59 basis points to 4.44%.

Major European indices hold gains across the board. Great Britain's FTSE +0.2%, France's CAC +0.6%, and Germany's DAX +0.6%. Elsewhere, Italy's MIB +1.7% and Spain's IBEX +0.8%.
Participants received several economic data points:
Eurozone GDP rose 0.3% quarter-over-quarter (0.2% expected, 0.1% prior) while the year-over-year reading increased 0.5% (0.4% forecast, -0.3% last).
Germany's GDP increased 0.4% (0.3% consensus, 0.3% prior) while the year-over-year reading reflected growth of 1.3% (1.3% expected, 1.1% previous).
French GDP rose 0.3% quarter-over-quarter (0.2% consensus, -0.1% last) and nonfarm payrolls ticked up 0.1% quarter-over-quarter (-0.1% expected, -0.1% prior).
Italy's GDP rose 0.1% quarter-over-quarter (0.1% expected, 0.0% prior) while the year-over-year reading declined 0.8% (-0.8% consensus, -1.9% last).
Spain's CPI fell 1.3% month-over-month (-1.3% expected, 0.1% prior) while the year-over-year reading ticked up 0.2%, as expected (0.3% previous).
In news:
In Italy, the 39-year old mayor of Florence, Matteo Renzi, is set to replace Prime Minister Enrico Letta after Mr. Letta lost support in parliament. Italian bonds have taken the news in stride and the 10-yr yield is lower by 1 basis point at 3.70%, which represents the lowest level for the benchmark yield since late 2010.

In U.S. corporate news:

Agilent Technologies (A 56.20, -3.88): -6.5% after its below-consensus guidance overshadowed its one-cent beat.
American International Group (AIG 49.10, -0.49): -1.0% despite beating on earnings and raising its dividend 25% to $0.125 per share.
Cliffs Natural Resources (CLF 24.13, +2.23): +10.2% after reporting above-consensus results.
LogMeIn (LOGM 40.00, +6.73): +20.2% following its better-than-expected earnings and above-consensus guidance.
V.F. Corp (VFC 56.50, -3.39): -5.7% after missing on earnings and revenue. In addition, the company guided fiscal year 2014 results below consensus.

January export prices ex-agriculture and import prices ex-oil will be released at 8:30 ET while Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for January will be announced at 9:15 ET. The day's data will be topped off by a 9:55 ET release of the preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey for February.

6:54 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -3.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -2.00.

6:54 am: [BRIEFING.COM] Nikkei...14313.03...-221.70...-1.50%. Hang Seng...22298.41...+132.90...+0.60%.

6:54 am: [BRIEFING.COM] FTSE...6658.48...-0.90...0.00. DAX...9655.66...+58.90...+0.60%.

WTI Crude Holds Above $100 on U.S. Consumer Confidence

By Moming Zhou Feb 14, 2014 4:05 PM ET

West Texas Intermediate crude settled above $100 for a fourth day this week on better-than-expected U.S. consumer confidence.

Prices gained 0.4 percent since Feb. 7, capping the longest stretch of weekly increases in more than a year. The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary index of sentiment held at 81.2 this month, and supplies at Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery point for New York futures, slid to a three-month low. WTI was lower for most of the day after the Federal Reserve said factory production dropped the most since May 2009 in January.

“The economic news is not really bad,” said Michael Lynch, president of Strategic Energy & Economic Research in Winchester, Massachusetts. “You are getting some pretty strong support around $100. We’ve seen such a reduction in Cushing inventories.”

WTI for March delivery dropped 5 cents to settle at $100.30 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices climbed to a four-month high of $100.37 on Feb. 12. Volume was 5.5 percent above the 100-day average at 3:29 p.m.

Nymex floor trading will be closed Feb. 17 for the U.S. Presidents Day holiday.

Brent for April settlement gained 56 cents, or 0.5 percent, to end the session at $109.08 a barrel on the ICE Futures Europe exchange. Volume was 33 percent below 100-day average. The European benchmark crude was at premium of $8.95 a barrel to WTI for the same month. The spread settled at $8.38 yesterday, based on March prices.

Consumer Confidence

The consumer confidence index was higher than the median estimate of 80.2 in a Bloomberg survey of economists. The Michigan sentiment survey’s index of expectations six months from now increased to 73 from 71.2 last month.

WTI followed gains in U.S. stocks as the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index climbed as much as 0.7 percent.

Factory production decreased 0.8 percent in January, according to the Federal Reserve. The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of economists called for a 0.1 percent advance for January. Assembly lines slowed last month as colder weather tempered production, the Fed said.

Supplies at Cushing, the delivery point for the futures, shrank by 2.67 million barrels last week, to 37.6 million barrels, the lowest level since Nov. 1, the Energy Information Administration reported Feb. 12.

Keystone XL

Stockpiles declined as the southern leg of TransCanada Corp.’s (TRP) Keystone XL pipeline moved oil to the Gulf Coast. WTI reduced gains as total U.S. crude supplies rose more than expected.

“People are focusing on Cushing due to the Keystone pipeline,” said Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at the Price Futures Group in Chicago. “Cushing inventories are likely to continue to fall.”

U.S. stockpiles of crude oil climbed by 3.27 million barrels last week to 361.4 million, the EIA, the Energy Department’s statistical arm. Inventories along the Gulf Coast, known as PADD 3, climbed 3.83 million barrels.

“People looked at the big withdrawal in Cushing and said, ‘wow, that’s tremendous’ and missed the big build in PADD 3,” said Dominick Chirichella, senior partner at the Energy Management Institute in New York.

Petroleum demand slid 569,000 barrels a day to 18.5 million last week, according to the EIA. Crude supplies have climbed 11.1 million barrels in the past four weeks.

Fundamental Signs

“We need to see signs of fundamentals really tightening for oil to continue the rally,” said Gene McGillian, an analyst and broker at Tradition Energy in Stamford, Connecticut.

About 62 percent of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg predicted that futures will move lower through Feb. 21 amid rising stockpiles.

A snow storm that hit the Eastern U.S. this week knocked out power to hundreds of thousands of homes and businesses, snarled traffic and canceled more than 14,000 flights. About 25 percent of Northeast households use heating oil to warm their homes, EIA data show.

Ultra low sulfur diesel, a proxy for heating oil, climbed 1.6 percent on the Nymex to $3.0782 a gallon.

Temperatures will be higher than average in the eastern two-thirds of the U.S. from Feb. 19 through Feb. 23, according to MDA Weather Services.

“The weather has been a bullish factor for crude,” said Bill O’Grady, chief market strategist at Confluence Investment Management in St. Louis, which oversees $1.4 billion. “The weather is going to warm up.”

Implied volatility for at-the-money WTI options expiring in April was 15.9 percent, down from 17.1 percent yesterday, data compiled by Bloomberg showed.

Electronic trading volume on the Nymex was 488,406 contracts at 3:08 p.m. It totaled 551,190 contracts yesterday, 8.1 percent above the three-month average. Open interest was 1.65 million contracts.

To contact the reporter on this story: Moming Zhou in New York at mzhou29@bloomberg.net

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney, Reuters and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader Image@ http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader

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