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 Post subject: February 13th Thursday Trade Results - Profit $2,640.00
PostPosted: Fri Feb 14, 2014 5:16 am 
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Joined: Sat Jan 10, 2009 2:06 pm
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Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
Phone: +1 708 572-4885
Free Chat Room: http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=164
Business Hours: 8am - 5pm est (Mon - Fri)
questions@thestrategylab.com (24/7)
http://twitter.com/wrbtrader (24/7)

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click on the above image to view today's performance verification

Price Action Trade Performance for Today: Emini TF ($TF_F) futures @ $390.00 dollars or +3.90 points, Emini ES ($ES_F) futures @ $2,250.00 dollars or +45.00 points, Light Crude Oil CL ($CL_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.00 points, Gold GC ($GC_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.00 points and EuroFX 6E ($6E_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.0000 ticks. Total Profit @ $2,640.00 dollars

Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures: 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures: 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup
Light Crude Oil CL (WTI) Futures: 1 tick or 0.01 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup
Gold GC Futures: 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup
EuroFX 6E Futures: 1 tick or 0.0001 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup

In addition, all of my trades were posted real-time in the chat room. You can read today's chat room logs for details about each one of my trades via price action trading from entry to exit (e.g. time, price, contract size) along with price action commentary as the trade traversed to its completion...all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=127&t=1721

Also, posted below are direct links to information about my price action trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis). I'm primarily a day trader because it suits my personal lifestyle but I do occasionally swing trade and position trade. Simply, my trade method is applicable for position trading, swing trading and day trading.

Image ##TheStrategyLab Chat Room is free. Members and I use the chat room to post WRB Analysis commentary, real-time trades and to post anything else related to trading. The chat room helps me tremendously in my own trading because I use it to document (journal) my thought process from trade to trade so that I can easily review at a later date my thoughts as I interacted with the markets...info I can not get from my broker statements. Also, this is not a signal calling chat room where a head trader tells you when to buy or sell. If you join the chat room and then you do not ask any questions about WRB Analysis in your own trading or you do not document (journal) your own thoughts from trade to trade...the chat room will not be useful to you. Chat room access instructions @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=164

Image Price Action Analysis via WRB Analysis Tutorials @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=119&t=718

Image Trade Signal Strategies via Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our price action trade strategies with support (answering your questions) prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Image Trading Plan Daily Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=232&t=2209

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Market Context Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, CNNMoney, Reuters and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED/ECB/BOE/IMF actions or any important global economic events (e.g. Eurozone, MarketWatch.com) that had an impact on today's price action in many trading instruments I monitor during the trading day. Simply, I'm a strong believer that key market events causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility resulting in trade opportunities (swing points and strong continuation price actions) that reach profit targets. Thus, I pay attention to these key market events, intermarket analysis (e.g. Forex EurUsd, EuroFX 6E futures, Gold GC futures, Light Crude Oil (WTI) CL & Brent Oil futures, Eurex DAX futures, Euronext FTSE100 futures, Emini ES futures, Emini TF futures, Treasury ZB futures and U.S. Dollar Index futures) while using WRB Analysis from one trade to the next trade to give me the market context for price action trading before the appearance of my technical analysis trade signals. Therefore, I maintain these archives to allow me to understand what was happening on any given trading day in the past involving key market events to help better understand my trade decisions (day trading, swing trading, position trading)...something I can not get from my broker statements alone.

Nasdaq Up For Sixth Straight Day

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click on the above image to view today's price action of key markets

NEW YORK (CNNMoney)
A bad batch of economic data and lackluster earnings didn't keep investors from buying stocks Thursday.

The Dow gained more than 60 points, while the S&P 500 rose 0.6%. The Nasdaq gained almost 1%, logging its sixth straight day of gains.

The market was higher even though the government reported that retail sales unexpectedly fell in January. Economists were looking for no change last month, but sales dropped 0.4%. Excluding auto sales, sales were flat. Sales for November and December were also revised lower.

ING chief market strategist Doug Cote said that while the "unusual snowy and cold weather can bear some of the blame," online sales also dropped last month.

The weakness in retail sales indicates a slight softening of the economy during the end of the year, Cote added.

Higher-than-expected unemployment claims were also a negative.

And corporate earnings weren't particularly good either. Shares of Dow component Cisco (CSCO, Fortune 500) fell after the company's weak revenue guidance disappointed investors. The stock was the worst performer in the Dow and the second biggest loser in CNNMoney's Tech 30 index. Despite reporting lower revenue and earnings, Cisco raised its dividend.

But cable stocks were moving dramatically after Comcas (CMCSA, Fortune 500)t announced plans to acquire Time Warner Cable (TWC, Fortune 500) in a $45 billion deal that would combine the two biggest cable companies in the United States.

Time Warner Cable shares jumped on the news, while Comcast fell. Shares of Charter Communications (CHTR, Fortune 500), a smaller cable company that had hoped to acquire Time Warner Cable, plunged. Shares of Cablevision Systems (CVC, Fortune 500), which some feel could be the next cable company to be taken over, were also down after opening sharply higher.

The deal is subject to approval from regulators, including the Federal Communication Commission and either the Department of Justice or the Federal Trade Commission.

StockTwits traders were skeptical that the merger will get approved.

"Hard for me to see $CMCSA and $TWC merger going through," said mmeadows51. "But I am no FCC attorney."

User scheplick wondered if the government would allow a single company to have 30 million cable subscribers, or about 30% of the market: "Comcast merging with Time Warner will give them 30 million cable subscribers. That's larger than every other cable company combined. $CMCSA"

In other company news, shares of Whole Foods (WFM, Fortune 500) fell sharply after the grocery chain's first quarter profit and sales figures fell short of expectations. The company also cut its earnings guidance for the year. That made Whole Foods a hot topic on StockTwits.

"Scaling the $WFM biz from here is hard, each new store is in a less desirable spot, takes longer to ramp, harder to monetize," said Estimize founder LDrogen.

Trader LSValue pointed out that even though Whole Foods focuses on organic and natural foods, it's a grocery store business, and in turn faces low margins: "$WFM Never understood why pay a high multiple for a Grocery Store. I don't care your groceries are Organic, its still a low margin business. Bearish."

Despite the current weakness, StockTwits trader sh34 remains bullish on Whole Foods' future: "$WFM When the weather gets better in the spring/summer, we should see more upside. Look at the Long term trend. Bullish."

Pepsi (PEP, Fortune 500) announced an increase in quarterly profit and revenue, but missed sales estimates, sending shares lower.

Goodyear (GT, Fortune 500) reported an increase in profit and beat estimates. Shares of the tire giant spiked more than 10%.

Netflix (NFLX) said it acquired the rights for the animated series "Star Wars: The Clone Wars." The stock rose nearly 2% and hit a new all-time high.

Bad weather on the East Coast led to light trading volume though. The snowstorm forced the Senate to postpone a scheduled appearance by Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen. Her testimony in front of the House sent stocks sharply higher Tuesday.

European markets finished the day mixed, while Asian markets ended with losses, led by the Nikkei, which fell 1.8%.

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4:15 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The stock market rallied steadily throughout the trading day despite starting the session on a lower note. Small caps led the way with the Russell 2000 climbing 1.3% while the S&P 500 advanced 0.6%.

The benchmark index was down as much as 0.6% at the start of the session after overnight weakness in the futures market set the stage for a lower open. The losses in futures coincided with a wave of yen strength that once again stoked fears about potential forced unwinds of the yen-based carry trade. Adding to the early weakness was a disappointing retail sales report for January.

Even though stocks opened lower, the S&P 500 found support at its 50-day moving average in the 1810 area. The index also drew strength from the retreat in the yen as the dollar/yen pair climbed off its low just under the 101.75 level.

Strikingly, the rally in equities continued even as the dollar/yen pair spent the afternoon in a narrow range while Treasuries never surrendered their morning gains. In fact, the 10-yr note extended its morning advance, sending its yield lower by six basis points to 2.73%.

It should be noted that the advance in equities took place amid below average volume, which could have exacerbated movements in some prices. Only 627 million shares changed hands at the NYSE floor versus a 200-day average of 717 million.

All ten sectors posted gains with materials (+1.0%) and utilities (+1.2%) ending in the lead. The rate-sensitive utilities sector benefited from the retreat in yields while materials drew strength from steelmakers and miners. The Market Vectors Steel ETF (SLX 47.05, +0.44) gained 0.9% while Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX 25.87, +1.10) jumped 4.4%. On a related note, gold futures rose 0.4% to $1300.40/ozt, ending above the $1300.00 mark for the first time since early November.

Elsewhere, the largest S&P 500 sector, technology (+0.9%) shook off the disappointing guidance provided by Cisco Systems (CSCO 22.27, -0.58), and rallied on the back of chipmakers. NVIDIA (NVDA 17.36, +0.53) gained 3.2% in reaction to its above-consensus results while the broader PHLX Semiconductor Index settled higher by 1.2%.

Other heavily-weighted groups were mixed with respect to the broader market. Health care (+0.8%) outperformed while consumer discretionary (+0.4%), energy (+0.4%), financials (+0.4%), and industrials (+0.2%) lagged.

Looking back at the economic data:
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InPlay from Briefing.com Briefing.com
US STOCKS-Wall St to open lower after retail sales, claims data Reuters
Stocks Gain as Investors Evaluate Economic Data TheStreet.com
US STOCKS-Wall St suffers worst drop since June after weak data Reuters
Wall Street rallies to snap three-week skid Reuters

Retail sales fell 0.4% in January after declining a downwardly revised 0.1% (from +0.2%) in December. The Briefing.com consensus expected no growth in January. The report was discouraging and many are going to point to extreme winter weather conditions as the primary cause for the larger-than-expected decline. That scenario holds some truth as sectors that are normally affected by weather conditions such as motor vehicle sales (-2.1%) and restaurants (-0.6%) saw significant pullbacks. However, spending in general was weaker across the board. That could signal that the spending out of savings that occurred in December was a one-time event related to the holidays and not the start of a new trend.
The weekly initial claims level increased to 339,000 from an unrevised 331,000 while the Briefing.com consensus expected an increase to 335,000. The claims data have shown some choppiness, likely the result of volatility from the extreme winter weather conditions. In general, claims have not deviated from its 330,000 - 340,000 trend. These levels normally support payroll growth in the neighborhood of 185,000 - 200,000 jobs per months.
Business inventories increased 0.5% in December after increasing 0.4% in November while the Briefing.com consensus expected an increase of 0.4%.Total inventories consist of manufacturers, merchant wholesalers, and retails. Both manufacturers (0.5%) and wholesaler (0.3%) inventories were announced prior to the total inventory release. The only unknown was retailer inventories, which increased 0.6% in December after increasing 0.8% in November.

Tomorrow, January export prices ex-agriculture and import prices ex-oil will be released at 8:30 ET while Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for January will be announced at 9:15 ET. The day's data will be topped off by a 9:55 ET release of the preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey for February.

Nasdaq Composite +1.5% YTD
S&P 500 -1.0% YTD
Russell 2000 -1.3% YTD
Dow Jones Industrial Average -3.3% YTD

3:30 pm: [BRIEFING.COM]

Precious metals trended higher today, gaining support on a weaker dollar index following retail sales and initial claims data released this morning. Retail sales fell 0.4% in January after declining a downwardly revised 0.1% (from +0.2%) in December (Briefing.com consensus expected no growth). The weekly initial claims level increased to 339,000 from an unrevised 331,000 (Briefing.com consensus called for an increase to 335,000). Apr gold gained for a fifth consecutive session, rising above the $1300 per ounce level for the first time since November. It lifted from its session low of $1291.80 per ounce and eventually settled with a 0.4% gain at $1300.40 per ounce.
Mar silver came off its session low of $20.20 per ounce set in early morning pit trade. It broke into positive territory in late morning action and settled at $20.39 per ounce, or 0.3% higher.
Mar crude oil lifted from its session low of $99.84 per barrel set at pit trade open and advanced to a session high of $100.66 per barrel. However, it slipped back into the red as it headed into the close and settled 0.1% lower at $100.28 per barrel.
Mar natural gas rose for a third consecutive session as it gained support from better-than-anticipated inventory data. Inventories for the week ending Feb 7 declined by 237 bcf, while expectations called for a draw of 228-233 bcf. The energy component trended higher after lifting from a session low of $4.92 per MMBtu set in early morning action and settled with a 7.9% gain at $5.21 per MMBtu, or just below its session high of $5.24 per MMBtu.

3:00 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 trades just below its session high with one hour remaining in the trading day.

Following today's close, participants will receive a fair dose of earnings with five S&P 500 components on the schedule. Namely, Agilent (A 60.25, +0.36), American International Group (AIG 49.26, +0.22), Cliffs Natural Resources (CLF 21.85, -0.14), Equifax (EFX 71.63, +0.25), and Kraft Foods (KRFT 53.65, +0.23) are set to report their earnings after the bell.

Tomorrow morning will feature another 25 quarterly reports with V.F. Corp (VFC 59.84, +0.51) and J.M. Smucker (SJM 95.13, +1.42) headlining the list.

2:30 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] Equity indices remain near their best levels of the trading day as the quiet session continues. It should be noted that today's action is taking place amid below-average volume, which has the potential to exacerbate the movements in price.

With 90 minutes left in the session, only 350 million shares have changed hands at the floor of the New York Stock Exchange. This is roughly in-line with yesterday's session that produced a light total of 628 million relative to the 200-day moving average of 716 million.

Market breadth remains tilted to the upside with nearly three advancing issues for each decliner at the NYSE.

2:00 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 has extended its gain to 0.5% while the Russell 2000 (+1.2%) continues to outperform. In our midday update, we mentioned that the financial sector has been unable to break away from its flat line. During the past hour, the second-largest S&P 500 group has climbed to a new session high, but continues to trail the broader market. The sector now trades higher by 0.3%, extending its week-to-date gain to 1.3%.

Elsewhere, the top sector of the week, health care, has extended its gain for the session to 0.7%. The largest countercyclical group is now higher by 2.8% this week.

With stocks on highs, participants have not shown much demand for downside protection as the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX 14.06, -0.24) hovers near its low.

1:35 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The stock market continues to shape up after a shoddy start that saw the S&P 500 decline 0.6% in the first few minutes of trading. Since then, however, stocks have been locked in an uptrend, bolstered by an abatement of buying interest in the yen, a successful retest of the 50-day moving average for the S&P 500, and the price action itself that is once again spurring a "fear of being left behind" trade.

Trading conditions are relatively thin due to the impact of Winter Storm Pax and we suspect that condition has provided a lubricant for some of the intraday swing. Nonetheless, what was largely a blanket of red figures on stock monitors has been replaced with a sea of green.

Every sector in the S&P 500 is trading higher, led by the materials sector (+1.1%). The financials are up (+0.2%) but are trailing behind in curious fashion.

Similarly, the Treasury market seems to be moving higher almost tick-for-tick with the stock market. The latter is at its highs for the session and so is the former, which appears to be paying closer heed to the weaker-than-expected retail sales and initial claims reports, as well as the decent $16 bln 30-yr bond auction. The 10-yr note is +17/32 with its yield at 2.73%.

1:05 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The major averages sport modest midday gains with small caps in the lead. The Russell 2000 is higher by 0.6% while the S&P 500 displays an advance of 0.3%.

Stocks began the session on a sharply lower note after index futures spent the entire overnight session in a steady retreat. The early weakness was brought on by a handful of factors including yen strength, which pressured the yen-based carry trade, and a disappointing retail sales report for January.

Despite the lower open, the S&P 500 found support at its 50-day moving average (1810) while also drawing strength from a late-morning retreat in the yen. The pullback in the Japanese currency alleviated some concerns about a snowball effect resulting from carry trades being unwound. Currently, the dollar/yen pair sits near 102.20 after notching a low just under the 101.75 level prior to the opening bell.

At this juncture, nine of ten sectors display gains, but somewhat surprisingly, the two leading sectors-materials (+0.8%) and utilities (+0.7%)-are among the least impactful groups. Together, the two represent less than 7.0% of the entire market.

Elsewhere, energy (+0.5%) and technology (+0.6%) also find themselves among the leaders while two other influential sectors-financials (unch) and industrials (-0.2%)-have yet to join the rally.

The largest S&P 500 sector, technology, has drawn strength from names like Apple (AAPL 543.13, +7.21), Google (GOOG 1195.11, +8.42), and Microsoft (MSFT 37.71, +0.24) while Cisco Systems (CSCO 21.96, -0.89) holds a loss of 3.9% after issuing disappointing guidance.

Despite the gains in equities, Treasuries remain near their best levels of the day. The 10-yr note is higher by 17 ticks with its yield down six basis points at 2.73%.

Among overseas news of note, the office of Italian Prime Minister Enrico Letta said Mr. Letta will tender his resignation to President Giorgio Napolitano tomorrow. Following the resignation, Democratic Party leader and the mayor of Florence, Matteo Renzi, is expected to replace Mr. Letta. Strikingly, Italian bonds have climbed since the announcement, pressuring the benchmark 10-yr yield to 3.71%.

Looking back at today's economic data:

Retail sales fell 0.4% in January after declining a downwardly revised 0.1% (from +0.2%) in December. The Briefing.com consensus expected no growth in January. The report was discouraging and many are going to point to extreme winter weather conditions as the primary cause for the larger-than-expected decline. That scenario holds some truth as sectors that are normally affected by weather conditions such as motor vehicle sales (-2.1%) and restaurants (-0.6%) saw significant pullbacks. However, spending in general was weaker across the board. That could signal that the spending out of savings that occurred in December was a one-time event related to the holidays and not the start of a new trend.
The weekly initial claims level increased to 339,000 from an unrevised 331,000 while the Briefing.com consensus expected an increase to 335,000. The claims data have shown some choppiness, likely the result of volatility from the extreme winter weather conditions. In general, claims have not deviated from its 330,000 - 340,000 trend. These levels normally support payroll growth in the neighborhood of 185,000 - 200,000 jobs per months.
Business inventories increased 0.5% in December after increasing 0.4% in November while the Briefing.com consensus expected an increase of 0.4%.Total inventories consist of manufacturers, merchant wholesalers, and retails. Both manufacturers (0.5%) and wholesaler (0.3%) inventories were announced prior to the total inventory release. The only unknown was retailer inventories, which increased 0.6% in December after increasing 0.8% in November.

12:35 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 has taken a step back from its session high, but the retreat has been limited to just two points. Even though the benchmark index has spent the past 90 minutes in positive territory, financials (-0.1%) and industrials (-0.3%) have yet to join the broader market in the green.

On the upside, technology (+0.5%), materials (+0.6%), and utilities (+0.6%) outperform notably, but out of the three, the tech sector holds the most sway over the broader market.

It should be noted that today's trading volume has been on the light side, which likely has something to do with Winter Storm Pax blanketing the East Coast. At this juncture, just over 250 million shares have changed hands at the floor of the NYSE.

12:00 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 remains near its session high with nine of ten sectors trading in the green. Interestingly, two of the smallest sectors-materials (+0.6%) and utilities (+0.7%)-trade ahead of the remaining groups.

The materials sector has received significant support from miners. The Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX 25.44, +0.67) is higher by 2.7% while gold futures hold an advance of 0.2% at $1297.90 per troy ounce. Gold futures notched a session high just north of the $1300.00 level, which was their first appearance above that mark since early November.

From one safe-haven asset to another, Treasuries continue trading near their highs with the 10-yr yield down five basis points at 2.75%.

11:35 am: [BRIEFING.COM] The market has been climbing steadily since notching session lows just after the opening bell. The S&P 500 spring boarded off its 50-day moving average (1810) and received additional support from the carry trade as the dollar/yen pair surged off its own low just under the 101.75 area.

Energy (+0.1%), financials (-0.1%), and industrials (-0.1% 0 continue to lag, but so far, their underperformance has been masked by the gains in consumer discretionary (+0.3%), health care (+0.4%), and technology (+0.5%).

The largest S&P 500 sector, technology, has received significant support from the likes of Apple (AAPL 541.79, +5.87), Google (GOOG 1195.22, +8.53), and Microsoft (MSFT 37.76, +0.29) while Cisco Systems (CSCO 21.89, -0.96) holds a loss of 4.2% after issuing disappointing guidance.

11:00 am: [BRIEFING.COM] The major averages have battled back from their early losses and all three indices now trade in the green. The S&P 500 is higher by 0.1% while the Nasdaq (+0.4%) outperforms.

The relative strength of the Nasdaq comes as the technology sector (+0.5%) trades ahead of the remaining nine groups. Another influential sector, health care (+0.2%) is also among the outperformers.

Even though the broader market has erased its opening loss, energy (unch), financials (-0.1%), and industrials (-0.2%) continue to lag, which should not go unnoticed considering the trio represents nearly 37.0% of the entire S&P 500.

Interestingly, despite the rally in equities, Treasuries remain near their highs. The 10-yr note is up 12 ticks with its yield down four basis points at 2.75%.

10:35 am: [BRIEFING.COM]

Despite the weakness in the dollar index, gold, silver, copper and WTI crude oil futures were all in the red this morning.
Gold and silver have since climbed higher and are now near the unchanged line. Meanwhile, the dollar index has remained in a tight consolidated pattern all morning and is currently near its session lows.
April gold is now +0.2% at $1297.30/oz, Mar silver is now -0.1% at $20.33/oz.
Natural gas futures were almost 3% higher ahead of the weekly EIA inventory data, holding a session high of $5/MMBtu.
Following inventory data, nat gas spiked to a new HoD and is now +4.4% at $5.03/MMBtu
Mar crude oil is -0.2% at $100.22/barrel.

10:05 am: [BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 trades lower by 0.3%.

Just reported, December business inventories rose 0.5%, which was above the 0.4% increase expected by the Briefing.com consensus. This follows the prior month's unrevised increase of 0.4%.

9:45 am: [BRIEFING.COM] The stock market began the trading day on the defensive with small caps leading the retreat. The Russell 2000 is lower by 0.6% while the S&P 500 holds a loss 0.5% with all ten sectors trading in the red.

Financials (-0.6%) and industrials (-0.8%) are showing the largest losses in the early going while the remaining cyclical groups are down between 0.3% and 0.6%. On the countercyclical side, health care (-0.2%), telecom services (-0.2%), and utilities (unch) outperform while consumer staples (-0.4%) trade in-line.

Treasuries remain near their highest levels of the day with the 10-yr yield off five basis points at 2.74%.

Also of note, the dollar/yen pair continues to trade near its session low in the 101.75 area. The performance of the Japanese currency is likely to factor into the direction of the equity market as additional yen strength would likely put pressure on the yen-based carry trade.

9:15 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -10.90. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -23.30. The stock market is on track for a sharply lower open as futures on the S&P 500 trade 11 points below fair value. Futures began retreating overnight as Asian markets traded lower across the board. Once again, the slide was due in part to yen strength, which put pressure on the yen-based carry trade. Currently, dollar/yen hovers below the 101.85 level while yen futures trade higher by 0.7%. The weakness carried over into the European session where the key indices trade broadly lower with Italy's MIB (-1.3%) seeing the largest loss.

Speaking of Italy, the leader of Italy's Democratic Party, Matteo Renzi, is expected to respond to Prime Minister Enrico Letta's comments in a live stream of his party leadership meeting. To recap, the country's largest party is pushing to replace Prime Minister Letta with Mr. Renzi, but yesterday's comments from the prime minister indicated he will not go down easily. Mr. Renzi, who is said to favor an early election, will live stream his party's leadership meeting around 9:00 ET.

Domestically, futures saw additional weakness after it was reported that January retail sales fell 0.4% (Briefing.com consensus 0.0%). The report was discouraging and many are going to point to extreme winter weather conditions as the primary cause for the larger-than-expected decline. That scenario holds some truth. Sectors that are normally affected by weather conditions such as motor vehicle sales (-2.1%) and restaurants (-0.6%) saw significant pullbacks; however, spending in general was weaker across the board. That could signal that the spending out of savings that occurred in December was a one-time event related to the holidays and not the start of a new trend.

Separately, the weekly initial claims level increased to 339,000 from an unrevised prior reading of 331,000. The Briefing.com consensus expected claims to increase to 335,000.

Treasuries jumped to highs in reaction to the data and the 10-yr note currently holds a 13 tick gain with its yield down almost five basis points at 2.75%.

8:59 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -9.70. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -20.80. The S&P 500 futures remain near their lows, trading ten points below fair value.

Markets across Asia ended in the red as sellers managed to gain the upper hand after a few days of solid gains. Reports out of China suggest Beijing is targeting 7.5% growth in 2014. Elsewhere, both Bank of Korea and Bank of Indonesia kept their benchmark interest rates unchanged at 2.50% and 7.50%, respectively. Both decisions were expected. In other news from the region, the Australian economy lost 3,700 jobs (+15,300 expected), causing the unemployment rate to climb back up to 6.0% (5.9% expected, 5.8% previous).

Japan's Nikkei slumped 1.8% as the yen strengthened. Heavyweight Softbank fell 3.5% as traders booked profits following its recent run up.
Hong Kong's Hang Seng lost 0.5%, slipping for the first time in three days. Lenovo shed 0.6% after warning the recent Motorola Mobility purchase from Google may be a near-term headwind to earnings.
China's Shanghai Composite fell 0.6%, registering its first loss in five days. Real estate shares were weak with Poly Real Estate sliding 2.0% after reporting a dip in sales.

Major European indices trade lower across the board with Italy's MIB (-1.3%) leading the retreat. The leader of Italy's Democratic Party, Matteo Renzi, is expected to respond to Prime Minister Enrico Letta's comments from yesterday. To recap, the country's largest party is pushing to replace Prime Minister Letta with Mr. Renzi, but yesterday's comments from the prime minister indicated he will not go down easily. Mr. Renzi, who is said to favor an early election, will live stream his party's leadership meeting around 9:00 ET.

Economic data was limited. Germany's CPI fell 0.6% month-over-month (-0.6% prior) while the year-over-year reading increased 1.3% (1.3% previous). Both figures met expectations. Elsewhere, Swiss PPI was unchanged month-over-month (-0.1% expected, 0.0% prior) while the year-over-year reading slipped 0.3% (-0.4% consensus, -0.4% last).

Germany's DAX is lower by 0.4% as 24 of its 30 components trade lower. Materials lag with HeidelbergCement and K+S both down near 1.9%. Utilities outperform with RWE up 2.0%.
In France, the CAC trades down 0.5%. Financials are under pressure with BNP Paribas and Credit Agricole down 4.2% and 1.0%, respectively. On the upside, Renault is higher by 5.7% following upbeat results.
Great Britain's FTSE holds a loss of 0.9%. Rolls-Royce Holdings and Tate & Lyle hold respective losses of 16.9% and 15.1% after both issued disappointing forecasts. Imperial Tobacco is higher by 4.6% following its in-line results.
Italy's MIB trades lower by 1.3% with banks pressuring the index. Intesa Sanpaolo, Mediobanca, and UniCredit hold losses close to 2.5% apiece.

8:34 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -11.40. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -23.00. The S&P 500 futures trade 11 points below fair value.

January retail sales fell 0.4% while the Briefing.com consensus expected no change. The prior month's reading was revised to reflect an increase of 0.1% (from +0.2%). Excluding autos, retail sales were unchanged against the 0.1% uptick expected by the consensus.

The latest weekly initial jobless claims count totaled 339,000, which was higher than the 335,000 that had been expected by the Briefing.com consensus. Today's tally was above the unrevised prior week count of 331,000. As for continuing claims, they fell to 2.953 million from 2.971 million.

8:00 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -7.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -17.80. U.S. equity futures hover near their pre-market lows amid cautious overseas action. The S&P 500 futures trade eight points below fair value.

Reviewing overnight developments:

Asian markets ended lower. Hong Kong's Hang Seng -0.5%, China's Shanghai Composite -0.6%, and Japan's Nikkei -1.8%.
In economic data:
Australia's employment fell 3,700 (+15,000 expected, -23,000 prior) as participation rate held steady at 64.5% (64.6% forecast). As a result, the unemployment rate increased to 6.0% from 5.8% (5.8% expected). Separately, MI Inflation Expectations came in at 2.3% (2.3% prior).
New Zealand's Business NZ PMI ticked down to 56.2 from 56.4.
The Bank of Korea held its key interest rate steady at 2.50%, as expected.
Among news of note:
While addressing the Japanese Parliament, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said the decision to raise the sales tax to 10.0% has not been made yet.
Major European indices trade lower across the board. Germany's DAX -0.2%, France's CAC -0.4%, and Great Britain's FTSE -0.6%. Elsewhere, Italy's MIB -1.1% and Spain's IBEX -0.8%.
Economic data was limited:
Germany's CPI fell 0.6% month-over-month (-0.6% prior) while the year-over-year reading increased 1.3% (1.3% previous). Both figures met expectations.
Swiss PPI was unchanged month-over-month (-0.1% expected, 0.0% prior) while the year-over-year reading slipped 0.3% (-0.4% consensus, -0.4% last).
In news:
In Italy, the leader of the Democratic Party, Matteo Renzi, is expected to respond to Prime Minister Enrico Letta's comments from yesterday. To recap, the country's largest party is pushing to replace Prime Minister Letta with Mr. Renzi, but yesterday's comments from the prime minister indicated he will not go down easily. Mr. Renzi, who is said to favor an early election, will live stream his party's leadership meeting around 9:00 ET.

In U.S. corporate news:

Cisco Systems (CSCO 21.97, -0.88): -3.9% after its disappointing guidance overshadowed its one-cent beat. In addition, the company raised its quarterly dividend 11.8% to $0.19 per share.
CBS (CBS 64.05, +2.20): +3.6% after beating on earnings and revenue.
ION Geophysical (IO 3.92, +0.77): +24.4% in reaction to its above-consensus results.
NVIDIA (NVDA 17.50, +0.67): +4.0% following its better-than-expected results.
Time Warner Cable (TWC 148.29, +12.98): +9.5% after confirming its merger with Comcast (CMCSA 54.06, -1.18).
Whole Foods (WFM 50.88, -4.58): -8.3% after missing on earnings and revenue. The company lowered its fiscal year 2014 guidance below consensus.
Zillow (Z 91.59, +1.74): +1.9% after beating on earnings and revenue.

Weekly initial claims and January retail sales will be reported at 8:30 ET while the December Business Inventories report will cross the wires at 10:00 ET.

6:56 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -9.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -18.00.

6:56 am: [BRIEFING.COM] Nikkei...14534.74...-265.30...-1.80%. Hang Seng...22165.53...-120.30...-0.50%.

6:56 am: [BRIEFING.COM] FTSE...6623.63...-51.40...-0.80%. DAX...9501.06...-38.90...-0.40%.

Gold Extends Climb Above $1,300 as Investors Boost SPDR Holdings

By Glenys Sim Feb 14, 2014 2:29 AM ET

Gold headed for the biggest weekly advance since October as U.S. economic data that trailed estimates increased haven demand, with holdings in the biggest exchange-traded product expanding to a two-month high. Silver was set for the longest rally since March 2008.

Bullion for immediate delivery rose as much as 0.6 percent to $1,310.70 an ounce, the highest price since Nov. 8, and traded at $1,309.18 at 3:21 p.m. in Singapore. Gold has traded above the 100-day moving average since Feb. 10, and is heading for a close above the 200-day moving average for the first time since February 2013. This week, bullion is up 3.4 percent.

While the prospect of a reduction in asset purchases by the Federal Reserve helped spur a 28 percent slump in gold in 2013, the cuts to stimulus that began in January hurt emerging-market stocks and currencies and increased gold’s appeal as a haven. Bullion advanced 8.6 percent this year on concern that U.S. growth may be stalling and as the MSCI All-Country World Index of equities retreated 1.5 percent.

“Gold got seriously hammered last year, and with the stock markets not performing as well as expected, some investors are reconsidering their allocation to gold,” Wallace Ng, a Shanghai-based trader at Gemsha Metals Co., said in an interview. “Physical demand this week has been good. But that’s not enough to sustain the price move, which tells me it’s mainly driven by sentiment and technicals.”

U.S. retail sales fell in January by the most since June 2012, while jobless claims unexpectedly climbed last week, data showed yesterday. Stimulus will be cut in measured steps, Fed Chair Janet Yellen said on Feb. 11, while reiterating that the purchases aren’t on a preset course.

SPDR Expands

Assets in the SPDR Gold Trust expanded 0.9 percent to 806.35 metric tons, the highest level since Dec. 20. The biggest ETP backed by bullion, which shrank 41 percent last year, is up 1.2 percent this week, headed for a third weekly advance.

Gold’s advance this year hasn’t deterred analysts at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., who this week restated a forecast for lower prices. The metal will drop to $1,050 by the end of the year, analysts led by Jeffrey Currie said in a report, citing expectations for improving U.S. growth.

Bullion’s 14-day relative strength index today topped the level of 70 that signals to analysts and investors who study charts that prices may be set to reverse. The RSI was last above 70 on Aug. 28, before prices fell 4.8 percent in September.

Newcrest’s View

Gold’s rally has been driven in part by “very, very strong” physical demand, Greg Robinson, chief executive officer of Newcrest Mining Ltd., Australia’s biggest producer, said today. His counterpart at largest gold miner Barrick Gold Corp., Jamie Sokalsky, is optimistic that prices have bottomed as reports of Chinese demand and slowing ETP sales are positive.

Volumes for Shanghai’s benchmark spot contract climbed for a second day today after reaching a nine-month high on Feb. 10. The nation’s bullion consumption jumped 41 percent in 2013 to a record 1,176.4 tons as demand for jewelry and bars rose, the China Gold Association said Feb. 10.

China probably overtook India as the largest consumer last year as import restrictions curbed demand in the South Asian nation. A lack of investment alternatives in China, and prices that are 32 percent below the record $1,921.15 in September 2011, spurred purchases in the second-largest economy, according to Liu Xu, a Beijing-based analyst at Capital Futures Co.

The jump in gold triggered gains in related equities. Zijin Mining Group Co., China’s biggest gold miner by market value, rose 1.7 percent to HK$1.84 in Hong Kong today, after tumbling 46 percent last year. OceanaGold Corp., Alacer Gold Corp. (AQG) and Beadell Resources Ltd. climbed in Sydney.

Futures Climb

Gold for April delivery added as much as 0.8 percent to $1,311 an ounce on the Comex, the highest price for a most-active contract since Nov. 8. An eighth day of gains today would be the longest rally since July 2011. The net-long position rose 74 percent this year to 59,408 futures and options in the week to Feb. 4, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show.

Silver jumped as much as 1.9 percent to $20.8818 an ounce, the highest level since Nov. 14, and traded at $20.8203. Prices have risen for 11 days and are up 6.9 percent this year after tumbling 36 percent in 2013.

Platinum and palladium headed for their longest advances since July. Platinum added as much as 0.4 percent to $1,422.56 an ounce, the highest price since Jan. 28, and is up for a sixth day. Palladium rose as much as 0.5 percent to $736.75 an ounce, the highest level since Jan. 23, gaining for an eighth day.

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney, Reuters and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader Image@ http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader

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