TheStrategyLab.com Support Forum

Forum for price action traders that want to learn WRB Analysis basic tutorial chapters 1, 2 and 3 prior to purchasing our advance trade methods
It is currently Tue Mar 28, 2017 10:53 am

All times are UTC - 5 hours




Post new topic Reply to topic Bookmark and Share  [ 1 post ] 
Author Message
 Post subject: February 28th Friday Trade Results - Profit $1,040.00
PostPosted: Fri Feb 28, 2014 6:15 pm 
Offline
Site Admin

Joined: Sat Jan 10, 2009 1:06 pm
Posts: 2803
Location: Canada
Image

Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
Phone: +1 708 572-4885
Free Chat Room: http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=164
Business Hours: 8am - 5pm est (Mon - Fri)
questions@thestrategylab.com (24/7)
http://twitter.com/wrbtrader (24/7)

Attachment:
022814-wrbtrader-Price-Action-Trading-PnL-Blotter-Profit+1040.00.png
022814-wrbtrader-Price-Action-Trading-PnL-Blotter-Profit+1040.00.png [ 178.54 KiB | Viewed 144 times ]

click on the above image to view today's performance verification

Price Action Trade Performance for Today: Emini TF ($TF_F) futures @ $1,040.00 dollars or +10.40 points, Emini ES ($ES_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.00 points, Light Crude Oil CL ($CL_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.00 points, Gold GC ($GC_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.00 points and EuroFX 6E ($6E_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.0000 ticks. Total Profit @ $1,040.00 dollars

Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures: 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures: 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup
Light Crude Oil CL (WTI) Futures: 1 tick or 0.01 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup
Gold GC Futures: 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup
EuroFX 6E Futures: 1 tick or 0.0001 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup

In addition, all of my trades were posted real-time in the chat room. You can read today's chat room logs for details about each one of my trades via price action trading from entry to exit (e.g. time, price, contract size) along with price action commentary as the trade traversed to its completion...all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=127&t=1733

Also, posted below are direct links to information about my price action trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis). I'm primarily a day trader because it suits my personal lifestyle but I do occasionally swing trade and position trade. Simply, my trade method is applicable for position trading, swing trading and day trading.

Image ##TheStrategyLab Chat Room is free. Members and I use the chat room to post WRB Analysis commentary, real-time trades and to post anything else related to trading. The chat room helps me tremendously in my own trading because I use it to document (journal) my thought process from trade to trade so that I can easily review at a later date my thoughts as I interacted with the markets...info I can not get from my broker statements. Also, this is not a signal calling chat room where a head trader tells you when to buy or sell. If you join the chat room and then you do not ask any questions about WRB Analysis in your own trading or you do not document (journal) your own thoughts from trade to trade...the chat room will not be useful to you. Chat room access instructions @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=164

Image Price Action Analysis via WRB Analysis Tutorials @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=119&t=718

Image Trade Signal Strategies via Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our price action trade strategies with support (answering your questions) prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Image Trading Plan Daily Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=232&t=2209

-----------------------------

Market Context Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, CNNMoney, Reuters and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED/ECB/BOE/IMF actions or any important global economic events (e.g. Eurozone, MarketWatch.com) that had an impact on today's price action in many trading instruments I monitor during the trading day. Simply, I'm a strong believer that key market events causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility resulting in trade opportunities (swing points and strong continuation price actions) that reach profit targets. Thus, I pay attention to these key market events, intermarket analysis (e.g. Forex EurUsd, EuroFX 6E futures, Gold GC futures, Light Crude Oil (WTI) CL & Brent Oil futures, Eurex DAX futures, Euronext FTSE100 futures, Emini ES futures, Emini TF futures, Treasury ZB futures and U.S. Dollar Index futures) while using WRB Analysis from one trade to the next trade to give me the market context for price action trading before the appearance of my technical analysis trade signals. Therefore, I maintain these archives to allow me to understand what was happening on any given trading day in the past involving key market events to help better understand my trade decisions (day trading, swing trading, position trading)...something I can not get from my broker statements alone.

S&P 500 Finishes At Record Closing High

Attachment:
022814-Key-Price-Action-Markets.png
022814-Key-Price-Action-Markets.png [ 957.11 KiB | Viewed 114 times ]

click on the above image to view today's price action of key markets

NEW YORK (CNNMoney)
Investors closed out a strong month for stocks with another record high.

The S&P 500 pushed further into record territory Friday, setting a new closing high of just under 1,860. The index was even higher earlier in the day, but concerns about a potential military conflict between Russia and Ukraine pressured the market in the afternoon.

"The headlines out of Ukraine suggest more unrest in the region," said Ryan Larson, a senior equity trader at RBC Global Asset Management. "People don't want to be long heading into the weekend for fear of further escalation."

The Dow ended below its highs of the day, while the Nasdaq closed down slightly.

But all three indexes posted gains for the week, capping a strong month for stocks. The S&P 500 added more than 4% in February.

The February rally is a sharp turnaround from the mood in January, when investors were spooked by turmoil in emerging markets.

Stocks got a boost Thursday from Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen, who told lawmakers that the weather was probably to blame for the recent spate of mixed economic data.

Economists say reports on hiring, manufacturing and retail sales in December and January have been skewed by severe winter storms. But the economy was already losing momentum in the final three months of 2013, according to government data released Friday.

U.S. gross domestic product -- the broadest measure of economic activity -- grew at an annual rate of 2.4% in the fourth quarter, the government said. That was weaker than previously estimated and marked a slowdown from the third quarter. But investors were already expecting the final reading to be revised downwards.

An index of manufacturing in the Chicago area came in better than expected, according to the Institute for Supply Management. And the University of Michigan's final reading on consumer sentiment in February also narrowly beat expectations.

What's moving: Tesla (TSLA) shares pulled back, cutting this week's gain to about 17%. The electric car company announced plans Wednesday to raise $1.6 billion for the construction of a giant battery factory, a crucial step towards building a mass market vehicle.

After such a strong rally, some Tesla bulls were sounding a note of caution on StockTwits

"$TSLA I love this company but would be a little careful of the stock here," said MrX.

Other traders said demand for Tesla shares is being diluted by the offering of convertible notes.

"No $TSLA buyers left after massive volume pre convertible bond offer," said SkepticalBull.

Activist investor Carl Icahn penned yet another angry letter to eBay (EBAY, Fortune 500) shareholders, reiterating his push to separate the company's online auction business from its payment service PayPal. eBay's board has already rejected the proposal and dismissed Icahn's allegations of conflicts of between board members and shareholders.

Despite the drama, eBay shares rose to an all-time high. The stock was one of the biggest movers in CNNMoney's Tech 30 index. Traders seem to enjoy watching the controversy play out.

"$EBAY testing all time highs, check, great chart, check, Ichan is involved, check, bullish option flow check, SELL? LOL" said Orthokneepa.

Shares of 3D Systems (DDD) gained after the maker of 3D printers reported strong quarterly results and issued an upbeat outlook. But shares of other companies in the 3D printing industry, including Stratasys (SSYS), Exone (XONE) and voxeljet (VJET), were mixed.

3D printing stocks have lost momentum since 3D Systems cautioned that its strong growth may slow this year. But the company's latest results seemed to reassure investors.

Citigroup (C, Fortune 500)reduced its previously reported fourth quarter results by $235 million to account for fraudulent activity in its Mexican subsidiary.

Shares of United Airlines (UAL, Fortune 500)slid after the airline said it had to cancel 22,000 flights during the first two months of the year because of the weather, prompting a profit warning.

Deckers Outdoor, (DECK) maker of the Australian sheepskin UGG boot, reported quarterly results that beat analysts' expectations. But the stock plunged 13% on a disappointing outlook for earnings this year.

The news made one trader nauseous. "$DECK BRB about to puke in the wife's UGGs," said callaway.

European markets ended mixed. Asian stocks were also mixed. China's currency was grabbing headlines as it continued its sharp move downwards versus the U.S. dollar.

Image



4:20 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The stock market finished an upbeat week on a mixed note amid the return of concerns about the immediate future of Ukraine. The S&P 500 added 0.3% after holding a solid 0.6% gain through the bulk of the trading day. The Nasdaq Composite and Russell 2000 lagged, falling 0.3% and 0.4%, respectively.

The early advance occurred after the release of several data points that were cast in a bullish light.

Specifically, the second estimate for Q4 GDP was weak, revised down to 2.4% from 3.2%. That was able to be spun as a basis for why the Fed isn't going to hurry the pace of its tapering or the timing of the first hike in the federal funds rate. The Chicago PMI and Consumer Sentiment reports were better than expected, providing some hope that recent economic weakness is primarily a weather phenomenon. And, finally, pending home sales were up a disappointing 0.1% in January, playing back into the notion that the Fed is going to be deliberate with its handling of monetary policy.

The major averages reached their highs by midday, but the Nasdaq was much more tentative in its advance as large cap names traded little changed while biotechnology lagged. Appropriately, the afternoon selloff was paced by the index, which underperformed earlier in the day. Biotechnology was pressured considerably, sending the iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 264.42, -7.73) lower by 2.8%.

The afternoon weakness came about after multiple reports indicated that Russian troops have increased their presence in Crimea, which is located in Southern Ukraine. In addition to yesterday's seizure of the parliament building, armed gunmen also took control of two airports as well as the local television station and a telecommunications company. The reports were followed by comments from Ukraine's acting President Oleksandr Turchynov, who said Russia invaded the country 'as a guise of exercise' with intent to 'provoke a conflict.' President Turchynov urged Russian President Vladimir Putin to 'show reason' and pull back the forces.

Despite the selloff, the S&P 500 was able to return into positive territory thanks to relative strength of heavily-weighted sectors like consumer discretionary (+0.5%), consumer staples (+0.7%), and financials (+0.5%).

With uncertainty back in the picture, participants rushed in search of volatility protection, which sent the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX 13.99, -0.05) from a session low of 13.49% to 14.79%. This represented a 9.6% swing in the near-term volatility measure before it settled near the middle of its range.

Elsewhere, Treasuries reclaimed a large portion of their morning losses. The benchmark 10-yr yield ended higher by two basis points at 2.66% after notching a session high at 2.70%.

Participation was above average with 944 million shares changing hands at the NYSE. MSCI rebalancing, which took place at the close, likely added some volume to the final tally.

Economic data included four reports:
Related Stories

U.S. stocks higher; S&P 500 eyes new record MarketWatch
Michigan Consumer Sentiment: A Modest Increase Despite Bad Weather Seeking Alpha
InPlay from Briefing.com Briefing.com
S&P 500 ends at record, nabs best monthly point gain since July: stock market live blog recap MarketWatch
U.S. stocks edge lower after housing data MarketWatch

Fourth quarter GDP was revised down from 3.2% to 2.4% in the second estimate while the Briefing.com consensus expected GDP to be revised down to 2.6%. Just about all of the data that came in over the last couple weeks were worse than what the BEA expected when it released its advance estimate. There was really nothing new in the GDP report that was a surprise from the most current monthly releases. The important takeaway is that real final sales, which were revised down to 2.3% from 2.8%, now show absolutely no breakout from trends that go back to Q1 2012. The "surge" in economic growth that led to strong 2014 economic forecasts did not actually happen.
The Chicago PMI for February increased to 59.8 from 59.6 while the Briefing.com consensus expected a decline to 56.0. Analysts have been quick to point to extreme winter weather conditions as the culprit for the recent poor economic data trends. Yet, the blustery weather in February had absolutely no effect on Chicago-area manufacturers. This is another data point suggesting the weather is being used as a scapegoat during a cyclical down period.
The final University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for February was revised up to 81.6 from 81.2 while the Briefing.com consensus expected an increase to 81.5. While the index moved in the opposite direction from the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence index, overall sentiment trends were relatively flat this month. Gains in equity prices offset slightly weaker employment conditions. Changes in gasoline prices and media reports likely had little effect on overall confidence values. The Current Conditions Index strengthened to 95.4 in the final reading from 94.0 in the preliminary. The Expectations Index was revised down to 72.7 from 73.0.
Pending home sales for January rose 0.1%, which was worse than the 0.8% increase forecast by the Briefing.com consensus. Today's reading followed last month's revised decrease of 5.8% (from -8.7%).

Nasdaq Composite +3.2% YTD
Russell 2000 +1.9% YTD
S&P 500 +0.6% YTD
Dow Jones Industrial Average -1.5% YTD

Week in Review: S&P 500 Registers Fresh Record Close

On Monday, the stock market kicked off the new trading week on an upbeat note, sending the S&P 500 (+0.6%) to a fresh nominal intraday record high of 1858.71. Despite the rally, selling during the final hour kept the benchmark index from finishing the session above its 2013 closing high of 1848.36. Although the catalyst for the buying rush could be debated, some attributed the bullish tone to the resilience of the S&P 500 futures in the face of some disappointing economic data and market performance in China. To clarify, a bearish catalyst was there for the taking, but it wasn't taken. Once the U.S. stock market started with a bullish bias, a fear of missing out on further upside helped fuel some renewed buying interest following Friday's lackluster session. Seven of ten sectors posted gains with energy (+1.5%) ending in the lead. The sector seized the lead at the open and maintained its outperformance throughout the session.

The stock market spun its wheels during the Tuesday session, ending essentially where it started. The S&P 500 shed 0.1% after spending the bulk of day within a striking distance of its flat line. Equity indices tried to build on the relative strength of the two consumer sectors, but the rally attempts were stifled by the daylong underperformance of the top three groups. Financials (-0.6%), health care (-0.2%), and technology (-0.3%) lagged from the opening bell and slumped to lows during the final hour of action. Since the three sectors account for more than 46.0% of the entire S&P 500, their underperformance acted as a headwind.

Equity indices finished the Wednesday session on a flat note after surrendering their modest intraday gains. More importantly, the S&P 500 was unable to register a fresh record closing high for the third day in a row. Stocks slipped from their opening levels, but the early weakness was erased in a flash when it was reported that new home sales in January surpassed estimates (468,000 versus Briefing.com consensus 400,000). The upbeat report sent stocks to new highs, but the S&P 500 ran into resistance just below the 1853 area, which the index was unable to penetrate throughout the afternoon. Eight of ten sectors ended in the red with energy (-0.6%) seeing the largest loss. However, the daylong underperformance of financials (-0.1%) was more notable as it marked the second day of relative weakness for the bellwether sector.

Stocks finished the Thursday session on an upbeat note with the S&P 500 settling above its 2013 closing high of 1848.36 after three unsuccessful attempts. Stocks climbed throughout the session despite starting the day on a cautious note. The early weakness could be traced to European markets, which were pressured by news of renewed tensions in the pro-Russian region of Crimea in Southern Ukraine. The developments weighed on European equities and contributed to a risk-off sentiment in the foreign exchange market where the yen strengthened notably against all major currencies. The dollar/yen pair fell as low as 101.70, which fueled worries about forced unwinds of yen-based carry trades. Those worries were calmed by a rebound that sent the currency pair to a session high of 102.20. Meanwhile, the stock market began the trading day on a flat note and continued climbing throughout the day. Participants heard from Fed Chair Janet Yellen, but Ms. Yellen struck a familiar tone during her appearance before the Senate Banking Committee.

3:30 pm: [BRIEFING.COM]

Apr gold fell into negative territory despite weakness in the dollar index. The yellow metal retreated from its session high of $1333.20 per ounce and settled with a 0.8% loss at $1321.40 per ounce. Still, gold gained 6.6% in February on soft economic data and political unrest in Ukraine.
May silver also slipped into the red after pulling back from a session high of $21.42 set at floor trade open. Prices sold off further heading in to the close, leaving silver to settle 0.6% lower at $21.22 per ounce. The metal gained 10.8% in February.
April crude oil touched a session low of $101.80 per barrel moments after pit trade opened but rallied into positive territory later in morning action. It advanced to a session high of $102.96 per barrel and settled with a 0.2% gain at $102.58 per barrel. The energy component rose 6.1% over the month as it gained support on inventory data and a weaker dollar index.
Apr natural gas trended higher after lifting from its session low of $4.54 per MMBtu. It peaked at $4.66 per MMBtu and settled at $4.62 per MMBtu, or 2.4% higher. The April contract gained 3.8% over the month.

3:00 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 trades higher by 0.1% with one hour remaining in today's session. The benchmark average charged out of the gate and spent a good portion of the late morning/early afternoon near its best level of the day but has been slipping from highs over the past 90 minutes of action.

The selling accelerated during the past 30 minutes amid reports indicating Russian military planes carrying roughly 2,000 soldiers have landed in the pro-Russian territory of Crimea in Southern Ukraine. Ukraine's acting president Oleksandr Turchynov responded by saying Russia invaded the country 'as a guise of exercise' with intent to 'provoke a conflict.' President Turchynov has also urged Russian President Vladimir Putin to 'show reason' and pull back the forces.

The news has sparked a run for volatility protection, sending the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX 14.04, 0.00) back to its flat line.

Elsewhere, Treasuries have seen some inflows, but they remain down on the session. The 10-yr yield is higher by two basis points at 2.66%.

2:30 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (+0.5%) has inched away from its session high while the Nasdaq has dropped below its flat line. The tech-heavy index has been lagging behind the benchmark average throughout the day and the recent slide to lows was fueled by significant weakness in biotechnology, which sent the iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 265.73, -6.42) to a session low. The biotech ETF is now lower by 2.4% as it hovers at last Friday's levels.

Despite the Nasdaq's recent bout of weakness, participants have not shown much demand for S&P 500 volatility protection. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX 13.68, -0.36) remains lower by 2.6%.

2:00 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 remains at its best level of the session as the quiet Friday afternoon continues. Even though the benchmark index has built on yesterday's record closing high, there hasn't been a mad rush of activity. On that note, only 320 million shares have changed hands at the NYSE so far today. Normally, this would suggest that today's final volume will come in below the 200-day average of 717 million; however, MSCI Index rebalancing will take place at the closing bell, which is likely to introduce additional volume and volatility.

Market breadth at the NYSE remains decidedly bullish with more than two names trading higher for each decliner. Things are a bit more balanced at the Nasdaq, where advancers outpace decliners by a 1.3:1 ratio.

1:25 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The bulls are having their way so far today, pushing the S&P 500 further into record territory on the back of some economic data that has been spun to fit a bullish bias.

To wit, the second estimate for Q4 GDP was weak, revised down to 2.4% from 3.2%. That was able to be spun as a basis for why the Fed isn't going to hurry the pace of its tapering or the timing of the first hike in the federal funds rate. The Chicago PMI and Consumer Sentiment reports today were better than expected, providing some hope that recent economic weakness is primarily a weather phenomenon. And, finally, pending home sales were up a disappointing 0.1% in January, playing back into the notion that the Fed is going to be deliberate with its handling of monetary policy.

In brief, a sunny-side up view of the data has prevailed and the price extension is creating concerns about missing out on further gains by those participants who have been on the sidelines.

The trading volume isn't particularly heavy at this juncture, yet that's primarily because the selling interest is relatively limited and investors sitting on winning positions continue to ride the trend, leaving the buying activity for those participants chasing the gains.

12:55 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] At midday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (+0.7%) and S&P 500 (+0.7%) hover near their highs while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (+0.4%) underperforms.

Equity indices began the Friday session right above their flat lines and commenced their climb shortly thereafter. The S&P 500 built on yesterday's record closing high of 1855.12 while also eclipsing its intraday record of 1847.61 that was established on Monday.

The first-half rally has been supported by eight of ten sectors while telecom services (-0.1%) and technology (+0.3%) trail the broader market. Outside of the two, the remaining groups display gains between 0.7% and 1.0%.

The largest S&P 500 group, technology, has struggled to keep pace with the benchmark index due to relative weakness among large cap names like Apple (AAPL 527.89, +0.22), Google (GOOG 1220.08, +0.87), and Intel (INTC 24.77, +0.01). This helps explain the underperformance of the Nasdaq Composite, which is also being pressured by biotechnology as the iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 270.89, -1.26) trades lower by 0.5%.

Even though biotech lags, it has not stopped the health care sector (+0.9%) from appearing among the leaders. Similar to health care, the financial sector (+0.9%) also sits in a position of strength after displaying relative weakness earlier in the week.

Treasuries hold modest losses with the benchmark 10-yr yield up three basis points at 2.68%.

Economic data included four reports:

Fourth quarter GDP was revised down from 3.2% to 2.4% in the second estimate while the Briefing.com consensus expected GDP to be revised down to 2.6%. Just about all of the data that came in over the last couple weeks were worse than what the BEA expected when it released its advance estimate. There was really nothing new in the GDP report that was a surprise from the most current monthly releases. The important takeaway is that real final sales, which were revised down to 2.3% from 2.8%, now show absolutely no breakout from trends that go back to Q1 2012. The "surge" in economic growth that led to strong 2014 economic forecasts did not actually happen.
The Chicago PMI for February increased to 59.8 from 59.6 while the Briefing.com consensus expected a decline to 56.0. Analysts have been quick to point to extreme winter weather conditions as the culprit for the recent poor economic data trends. Yet, the blustery weather in February had absolutely no effect on Chicago-area manufacturers. This is another data point suggesting the weather is being used as a scapegoat during a cyclical down period.
The final University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for February was revised up to 81.6 from 81.2 while the Briefing.com consensus expected an increase to 81.5. While the index moved in the opposite direction from the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence index, overall sentiment trends were relatively flat this month. Gains in equity prices offset slightly weaker employment conditions. Changes in gasoline prices and media reports likely had little effect on overall confidence values. The Current Conditions Index strengthened to 95.4 in the final reading from 94.0 in the preliminary. The Expectations Index was revised down to 72.7 from 73.0.
Pending home sales for January rose 0.1%, which was worse than the 0.8% increase forecast by the Briefing.com consensus. Today's reading followed last month's revised decrease of 5.8% (from -8.7%).

Also of note, MSCI index rebalancing will occur at the closing bell, which has the potential to introduce some added volatility into the final minutes of action.

12:30 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (+0.7%) has inched to a fresh session high thanks to recent inflows into the financial sector (+1.0%). Interestingly, the influential group jumped into the lead after displaying relative weakness for the majority of the week.

Including its current gain, the financial sector is poised to finish the week with a 1.6% gain. This advance would put the sector right in the middle of the pack, just ahead of the technology sector (+1.4%) and a bit behind the industrial space (+1.7%).

Elsewhere, Treasuries have climbed off their morning lows and now hover near the middle of their range. The benchmark 10-yr yield remains higher by three basis points with its yield at 2.68%.

12:00 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (+0.7%) has notched a fresh session high while the Nasdaq (+0.5%) continues to lag. Similar to the Nasdaq, small caps also underperform with the Russell 2000 trading higher by 0.3%.

Today's underperformance of the Russell 2000 comes after the index displayed relative strength earlier in the week. Including today's gain, the Russell 2000 is higher by 2.4% this week. This puts the sector well ahead of the S&P 500, which trades with a week-to-date gain of 1.7%.

With February coming to an end today, the Russell 2000 is on track to register a monthly increase of 5.6% versus a 4.8% gain for the S&P 500.

11:30 am: [BRIEFING.COM] Recent action saw a bit more weakness in the technology sector (+0.1%), but that had little impact on the broader market as the health care sector (+0.8%) climbed to a fresh high.

With the tech sector on lows, the group deserves added attention into the afternoon considering it is the largest S&P 500 sector. At this juncture, the underperformance of the group is being overshadowed by the relative strength of financials (+0.6%) and the aforementioned health care space. Furthermore, the tech sector is the only laggard among cyclical groups while the other five growth-oriented sectors display gains between 0.5% and 0.6%.

Despite the relative weakness of the top S&P 500 sector, participants have not shown much demand for volatility protection. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX 13.76, -0.28) is lower by 2.0%.

11:00 am: [BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (+0.6%) trades right below its session high while the Nasdaq (+0.3%) has taken a couple steps back from its best level of the day.

Like the Nasdaq Composite, the S&P 500 technology sector (+0.2%) has retreated from its early high and now trades at the bottom of the leaderboard, only ahead of the telecom services sector (-0.1%). Top sector components are somewhat mixed as Apple (AAPL 528.39, +0.72) and Google (GOOG 1222.15, +2.94) hover just above their flat lines while Facebook (FB 68.75, -0.19), Qualcomm (QCOM 75.12, -0.07) and Intel (INTC 24.70, -0.06) lag.

Also of note, Salesforce.com (CRM 64.37, -1.85) trades lower by 2.8% despite reporting better-than-expected results.

Even though the underperformance of technology has knocked the Nasdaq off its high, the S&P 500 remains near its session best thanks to the relative strength of financials (+0.7%) and health care (+0.8%).

10:35 am: [BRIEFING.COM]

Gold and silver futures just sold off, causing gold to hit a new session low.
Apr gold is now -0.6% at $1324.20/oz, May silver is -0.6% at $21.23/oz.
Apr natural gas continue to extend gains and just hit a new session high. Apr gas is now +2% at $4.60/MMBtu
Apr crude oil futures sold off back below $102/barrel a short while ago, but are now -0.2% at $102.18/barrel

10:05 am: [BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 has extended its gain to 0.4%.

The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report for February was revised up to 81.6 from 81.2 in the final reading while the Briefing.com consensus expected the index to be revised up to 81.5.

Pending home sales for January rose 0.1%, which was worse than the 0.8% increase forecast by the Briefing.com consensus. Today's reading followed last month's revised decrease of 5.8% (from -8.7%).

9:45 am: [BRIEFING.COM] The major averages began the day just above their flat lines with the Nasdaq (+0.3%) pacing the advance.

With regard to individual sectors, energy (+0.6%) and utilities (+0.5%) are in the early lead with health care (+0.4%) and consumer discretionary (+0.3%) following not far behind. On the downside, the financial sector trades little changed.

Just released, the February Chicago PMI ticked up to 59.8 from 59.6 while the Briefing.com consensus expected a decline to 56.0.

The final reading of the University of Michigan Consumer Survey for February will be released at 9:55 ET and the Pending Home Sales report for January will cross the wires at 10:00 ET.

9:18 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +1.10. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +2.00. The stock market is on track to begin today's session on a flat note as the S&P 500 futures trade right above fair value. Overnight, the major Asian markets traded inside relatively narrow ranges, but the yen saw another wave of strength that sent the dollar/yen pair to a low of 101.68. However, the currency pair has been climbing off its low and now trades right around the 102.00 level. If the pair returns to its overnight low during the session, the yen strength would likely translate into weakness for equities due to concerns about forced unwinds of yen-based carry trades.

Pre-market data was limited to the second estimate of fourth quarter GDP, which was revised down from 3.2% to 2.4% while the Briefing.com consensus expected GDP to be revised down to 2.6%. Just about all of the data that came in over the last couple weeks were worse than what the BEA expected when it released its advance estimate. There was really nothing new in the GDP report that was a surprise from the most current monthly releases. The important takeaway is that real final sales, which were revised down to 2.3% from 2.8%, now show absolutely no breakout from trends that go back to Q1 2012. The "surge" in economic growth that led to strong 2014 economic forecasts did not actually happen.

Treasuries sit on their session lows with the 10-yr yield up three basis points at 2.67%.

The Chicago PMI for February will cross the wires at 9:45 ET and the final reading of the Michigan Sentiment survey for February will be reported at 9:55 ET. The day's data will be topped off by the Pending Home Sales report for January, which will be released at 10:00 ET.

Also of note, MSCI index rebalancing will occur at the close today, which has the potential to introduce some added volatility into the final minutes of action.

9:01 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -0.10. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +0.20. The S&P 500 futures trade right below fair value.

Markets across Asia ended mostly higher, buoyed by yesterday's advance on Wall Street. China's yuan posted it largest weekly decline on record, sliding 0.8% to 6.1448 against the greenback, and closing at its worst levels since July 2013. Also of note, the one-week SHIBOR saw a 9.9 basis point advance to 3.529%.

Japanese data was mostly better than expected as household spending (1.1% year-over-year versus 0.5% expected), preliminary industrial production (4.0% month-over-month versus 3.1% expected), and retail sales (4.4% year-over-year versus 3.9% expected) all outpaced estimates. Tokyo CPI saw a hotter than expected 0.9% year-over-year (0.8% expected) print. Elsewhere, Australia's private sector credit (0.4% month-over-month versus 0.5% expected) missed.

Japan's Nikkei lost 0.6%, sliding for a third straight day as the stronger yen weighed. Honda Motor lost 1.4% and Toyota Motor shed 1.2%.
Hong Kong's Hang Seng finished flat after early strength was rejected by the 100-day moving average. Property developers outperformed as China Overseas Land & Investment added 1.2% and Sino Land gained 1.1%. Meanwhile, financials led to the downside with Bank of Communications and Bank of China off 1.2% and 0.9%, respectively.
China's Shanghai Composite rose 0.4%, gaining for a third straight day. Property developers led as bargain hunters emerged following days of heavy selling. China Vanke led the group's advance, up 2.0%.

Major European indices trade mostly lower with Spain's IBEX (-1.1%) seeing the largest loss amid weakness in financials after the country's government began selling some of its shares in Bankia, which trades lower by nearly 5.0%.

Participants received several economic data points. Eurozone CPI rose 0.8% year-over-year (0.7% expected, 0.8% prior) while core CPI increased 1.0% year-over-year (0.8% consensus, 0.8% previous). Separately, the unemployment rate held steady at 12.0%, as expected. Germany's Retail Sales rose 2.5% month-over-month (1.0% expected, -2.1% prior) while the year-over-year reading increased 0.9% (-1.2% consensus, -1.5% last). French PPI slipped 0.6% month-over-month (-0.3% expected, 0.2% prior) and Consumer Spending fell 2.1% month-over-month (0.2% consensus, 0.2% prior). Italian CPI ticked down 0.1% month-over-month (0.1% expected, 0.2% prior) while the year-over-year reading rose 0.5% (0.7% consensus, 0.7% last). Separately, the monthly unemployment rate rose to 12.9% from 12.7% (12.7% expected).

Spain's IBEX is lower by 1.1% as financials weigh. Banco Popular Espanol, Banco de Sabadell, and CaixaBank are down between 2.0% and 3.4%.
France's CAC holds a loss of 0.3%. Steelmaker Vallourec is the weakest performer, down 2.6%. On the upside, hotel operator Accor is higher by 1.8%.
Great Britain's FTSE is lower by 0.1% with publisher Pearson seeing the largest loss. The stock trades lower by 7.3% after the company issued a disappointing outlook. On the upside, financials Hargreaves Lansdown and Old Mutual trade higher by 2.7% and 5.8%, respectively.
Germany's DAX trades up 0.2%. Fresenius Medical Care and Bayer hold respective gains of 1.7% and 0.7%. Deutsche Lufthansa underperforms with a loss of 1.4%.

8:33 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -0.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -1.50. The S&P 500 futures remain just below fair value.

The second estimate of fourth quarter GDP indicated growth of 2.4%, down from the 3.2% increase observed in the preliminary reading. The downwardly revised increase is lower than the 2.6% increase that economists polled by Briefing.com had expected. The fourth quarter GDP Deflator was revised up to 1.6% from 1.3%.

8:01 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -0.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -1.50. U.S. equity futures trade little changed amid cautious overseas action. The S&P 500 futures hover less than one point below fair value.

Reviewing overnight developments:

Asian markets ended on a mixed note. Hong Kong's Hang Seng +0.04%, China's Shanghai Composite +0.4%, and Japan's Nikkei -0.6% while the yen strengthened, sending the dollar/yen pair below the 102.00 level.
In economic data:
Japan's Manufacturing PMI fell to 55.5 from 56.6, and Industrial Production rose 4.0% month-over-month (3.0% expected, 0.9% prior). Tokyo CPI increased 1.1% year-over-year (0.7% prior) while Tokyo core CPI rose 0.9% year-over-year (0.8% expected, 0.7% previous). Also of note, national core CPI increased 1.3% year-over-year (1.2% expected, 1.3% last). Separately, Housing Starts rose 12.3% year-over-year (15.0% expected, 18.0% prior), Household Spending increased 1.1% year-over-year (0.2% consensus, 0.7% previous), and retail sales jumped 4.4% year-over-year (3.8% expected, 2.6% last).
South Korea's Industrial Production ticked up 0.1% month-over-month (-0.8% forecast, 2.4% prior) while the year-over-year reading fell 3.8% (-1.4% expected, 2.9% prior). Also of note, Retail Sales rose 2.4% month-over-month (0.4% expected, -1.1% previous).
Among news of note:
Bank of Japan board member Sayuri Shirai said it may take 'some time' to meet the 2.0% inflation target and the 2-year time horizon should be flexible.

Major European indices trade lower. Germany's DAX -0.1%, Great Britain's FTSE -0.1%, and France's CAC -0.3%. Elsewhere, Italy's MIB -0.2% and Spain's IBEX -1.3%.
Participants received several economic data points:
Eurozone CPI rose 0.8% year-over-year (0.7% expected, 0.8% prior) while core CPI increased 1.0% year-over-year (0.8% consensus, 0.8% previous). Separately, the unemployment rate held steady at 12.0%, as expected.
Germany's Retail Sales rose 2.5% month-over-month (1.0% expected, -2.1% prior) while the year-over-year reading increased 0.9% (-1.2% consensus, -1.5% last).
French PPI slipped 0.6% month-over-month (-0.3% expected, 0.2% prior) and Consumer Spending fell 2.1% month-over-month (0.2% consensus, 0.2% prior).
Italian CPI ticked down 0.1% month-over-month (0.1% expected, 0.2% prior) while the year-over-year reading rose 0.5% (0.7% consensus, 0.7% last). Separately, the monthly unemployment rate rose to 12.9% from 12.7% (12.7% expected).
In news:
Spain's IBEX trails other regional indices amid weakness in financials after the country's government began selling some of its shares in Bankia, which trades lower by nearly 5.0%.

In U.S. corporate news:

Deckers Outdoor (DECK 73.99, -10.68): -12.6% after its below-consensus guidance overshadowed its better-than-expected earnings and revenue.
Gap (GPS 43.63, -0.05): -0.1% after beating earnings estimates and guiding fiscal-year 2015 earnings below consensus.
Salesforce.com (CRM 66.65, +0.43): +0.7% after beating earnings estimates by one cent on above-consensus revenue.
Sprouts Farmers Market (SFM 37.75, +0.29): +0.8% following its better-than-expected results.

The second estimate of Q4 GDP will be released at 8:30 ET while the Chicago PMI for February will cross the wires at 9:45 ET. The final reading of the Michigan Sentiment survey for February will be reported at 9:55 ET while the Pending Home Sales report for January will be released at 10:00 ET.

6:46 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -1.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -4.00.

6:46 am: [BRIEFING.COM] Nikkei...14841.07...-82.00...+0.60%. Hang Seng...23836.96...+8.80...0.00.

6:46 am: [BRIEFING.COM] FTSE...6795.67...-14.60...-0.20%. DAX...9574.70...-13.60...-0.10%.

U.S. Economy Expanded at Slower Pace Than First Estimated

Manufacturing and consumer confidence improved in February and housing stabilized last month, indicating the U.S. economy is shaking off the effects of the harsh winter and loss of momentum at the end of 2013.

The Institute for Supply Management-Chicago Inc.’s regional factory barometer unexpectedly increased to 59.8 this month from 59.6 in January, the group said today. Other reports showed household sentiment edged up, pending sales of existing homes were little changed and the economy grew at a slower pace in the fourth quarter than previously estimated.

The data signal the world’s largest economy is starting to overcome the freeze that hurt retail sales, production and construction last month. Federal Reserve policy makers will probably continue to keep interest rates low to nurture the expansion even as they take measured steps to reduce stimulus.

“The first quarter is starting out pretty weak, and a lot of that is weather,” said John Silvia, chief economist at Wells Fargo Securities LLC, in Charlotte, North Carolina, who correctly predicted the GDP revision. “2014 is going to be a much better year than 2013.”

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose for a third day on the improving economic data. The S&P 500 climbed 0.3 percent to a record 1,859.45 at the close in New York.

Japan’s Economy

Japan’s economy also showed signs of picking up along with inflation, according to two reports today. Industrial production in January increased the most since 2011, while a measure of consumer prices matched the biggest advance in more than five years.

In the euro area, inflation exceeded economists’ forecasts in February, easing pressure on the European Central Bank to take action next week to foster the fragile economic recovery.

The median forecast of 53 economists in a Bloomberg survey projected the Chicago manufacturing index would fall to 56.4. Estimates ranged from 53 to 60. Readings greater than 50 signal growth.

The gain this month was led by a surge in hiring that sent the group’s employment index to the second-highest level in two years. Measures of orders and production continued to signal expansion, although at a slower pace.

Consumer confidence improved in February from a month earlier as more Americans grew optimistic about the outlook for the economy, another report today showed.

Improving Sentiment

The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan final sentiment index for the month rose to 81.6 from 81.2 in January. The index averaged 89 in the five years before December 2007, when the last recession began, and 64.2 in the 18-month contraction that followed.

Gross domestic product grew at a 2.4 percent annualized rate from October through... Read More

The sentiment survey’s index of expectations six months from now increased to a six-month high, while the gauge of current conditions, which measures Americans’ views of their personal finances, declined.

More buoyant sentiment means spending may pick up after bad winter weather across much of the country caused some Americans to stay close to home rather than shop last month. Wage growth and more hiring would help further brighten spirits and give consumers the wherewithal to increase their purchases.

Retail sales fell 0.4 percent in January after a revised 0.1 percent drop in December that was previously reported as an increase, Commerce Department data showed earlier this month.

“We’re going to see wages start to pick up,” said Wells Fargo’s Silvia. “That’s why we think consumer spending will be better going forward as well.”

GDP Revision

Gross domestic product grew at a 2.4 percent annualized rate from October through December, compared with the government’s first estimate of 3.2 percent issued last month, revised figures from the Commerce Department also showed today.

Smaller gains in consumer spending, inventories and exports weighed on an economy already slowed by the 16-day partial shutdown of federal agencies in October and weaker government spending. Less fiscal restraint this year and further progress in the labor market probably will boost GDP after the unusually harsh weather curbed growth in early 2014.

Business investment was one of the few areas of the economy that looked better in the fourth quarter than previously estimated, the report showed. Spending on new equipment climbed at the fastest pace since the third quarter of 2011. Purchases of intellectual property, including computer software, showed the biggest advance in six years.

‘Pivotal’ Shift

“There has clearly been a shift in attitudes on the part of business people, kind of a pivotal point,” BB&T Corp. Chief Executive Officer Kelly King said in an interview. “People have become more confident, less negative, more willing to think about investing.” The Winston-Salem, North Carolina-based bank has assets of $182 billion.

“It is not a sea change, but there is a pivotal swing that I believe will cause GDP for this year to be building positively throughout the year,” King said. “I think it will be 2.5 percent or so for the year. It may end up 3 or 3.25 or so” by the fourth quarter. “A nice steady improvement.”

Residential real estate is also showing signs of steadying after the coldest January since 2011 set construction back. Housing starts fell 16 percent last month, the biggest decrease in almost three years, figures from the Commerce Department showed earlier this month.

The index of pending home sales climbed 0.1 percent in January after a 5.8 percent drop the prior month that was smaller than previously estimated, figures from the National Association of Realtors showed today.

Two of four regions, the Northeast and the South, saw an increase from the previous month, today’s report showed.

Yellen’s View

Unusually cold weather has played a part in the soft economic data, though it’s not yet clear how much, Fed Chair Janet Yellen said yesterday in testimony to the Senate Banking Committee. She repeated the Fed’s statements that the central bank intends to reduce asset purchases at a “measured” pace, and she said in response to a separate question that the bond-buying program is likely to end in the fall.

“What we need to do and will be doing in the weeks ahead is to try to get firmer handle on exactly how much of that set of soft data can be explained by weather and what portion, if any, is due to softer outlook,” Yellen said. “So if there’s a significant change in the outlook, certainly we would be open to reconsidering” slowing the pace of tapering, she said.

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney, Reuters and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader Image@ http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader

http://www.thestrategylab.com
Phone: +1 708 572-4885
Business Hours: 8am - 5pm est (Mon - Fri)
Skype Messenger: kebec2002
questions@thestrategylab.com
Go Back To TheStrategyLab.com Homepage


Top
 Profile  
 
Display posts from previous:  Sort by  
Post new topic Reply to topic Bookmark and Share  [ 1 post ] 

All times are UTC - 5 hours


Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests


You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot post attachments in this forum

Search for:
Jump to:  
Powered by phpBB © 2000, 2002, 2005, 2007 phpBB Group
Translated by Xaphos © 2007, 2008, 2009 phpBB.fr