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 Post subject: January 30th Thursday Trade Results - Profit $7,920.00
PostPosted: Fri Jan 31, 2014 12:35 am 
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Joined: Sat Jan 10, 2009 1:06 pm
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Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
Phone: +1 708 572-4885
Free Chat Room: http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=164
Business Hours: 8am - 5pm est (Mon - Fri)
questions@thestrategylab.com (24/7)
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click on the above image to view today's performance verification

Price Action Trade Performance for Today: Emini TF ($TF_F) futures @ $7,920.00 dollars or +79.20 points, Emini ES ($ES_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.00 points, Light Crude Oil CL ($CL_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.00 points, Gold GC ($GC_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.00 points and EuroFX 6E ($6E_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.0000 ticks. Total Profit @ $7,920.00 dollars.

Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures: 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures: 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup
Light Crude Oil CL (WTI) Futures: 1 tick or 0.01 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup
Gold GC Futures: 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup
EuroFX 6E Futures: 1 tick or 0.0001 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup

In addition, all of my trades were posted real-time in the chat room. You can read today's chat room logs for details about each one of my trades via price action trading from entry to exit (e.g. time, price, contract size) along with price action commentary as the trade traversed to its completion...all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=126&t=1709

Also, posted below are direct links to information about my price action trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis). I'm primarily a day trader because it suits my personal lifestyle but I do occasionally swing trade and position trade. Simply, my trade method is applicable for position trading, swing trading and day trading.

Image ##TheStrategyLab Chat Room is free. Members and I use the chat room to post WRB Analysis commentary, real-time trades and to post anything else related to trading. The chat room helps me tremendously in my own trading because I use it to document (journal) my thought process from trade to trade so that I can easily review at a later date my thoughts as I interacted with the markets...info I can not get from my broker statements. Also, this is not a signal calling chat room where a head trader tells you when to buy or sell. If you join the chat room and then you do not ask any questions about WRB Analysis in your own trading or you do not document (journal) your own thoughts from trade to trade...the chat room will not be useful to you. Chat room access instructions @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=164

Image Price Action Analysis via WRB Analysis Tutorials @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=119&t=718

Image Trade Signal Strategies via Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our price action trade strategies with support (answering your questions) prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Image Trading Plan Daily Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=229&t=2165

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Market Context Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, CNNMoney, Reuters and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED/ECB/BOE/IMF actions or any important global economic events (e.g. Eurozone, MarketWatch.com) that had an impact on today's price action in many trading instruments I monitor during the trading day. Simply, I'm a strong believer that key market events causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility resulting in trade opportunities (swing points and strong continuation price actions) that reach profit targets. Thus, I pay attention to these key market events, intermarket analysis (e.g. Forex EurUsd, EuroFX 6E futures, Gold GC futures, Light Crude Oil (WTI) CL & Brent Oil futures, Eurex DAX futures, Euronext FTSE100 futures, Emini ES futures, Emini TF futures, Treasury ZB futures and U.S. Dollar Index futures) while using WRB Analysis from one trade to the next trade to give me the market context for price action trading before the appearance of my technical analysis trade signals. Therefore, I maintain these archives to allow me to understand what was happening on any given trading day in the past involving key market events to help better understand my trade decisions (day trading, swing trading, position trading)...something I can not get from my broker statements alone.

Stocks Bounce Back As Earnings Impress

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click on the above image to view today's price action of key markets

NEW YORK (CNNMoney)
Stocks bounced back Thursday as investors focused more on strong corporate earnings from tech companies and healthy economic data as opposed to continuing tumult in emerging markets.

The Dow rose more than 100 points, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both gained more than 1%.

The U.S. government reported that the economy grew at a solid 3.2% pace in the fourth quarter, driven by strong consumer spending and exports. That figure beat economists' expectations, and although it's not indicative of gangbusters growth, the data seems to show the economy is moving forward modestly.

Stocks sold-off Wednesday after the Fed said it was cutting another $10 billion per month from its economic stimulus program. Investors were disappointed the central bank didn't address the recent trouble in emerging markets. Stocks around the world have been rattled in this week as investors worry about an emerging markets currencies sell-off sparked by a reduced flow of cheap money.

Earnings season in full swing: Visa (V, Fortune 500) shares rose on better-than-expected results. The credit and debit card processing company has the biggest weighting in the Dow.

$V You can always count on this company," said DomLuminous on StockTwits.

Facebook (FB, Fortune 500) shares soared 14% to a new all-time high following strong quarterly sales and earnings. The social media giant's results showed the company has made huge strides in mobile advertising, an area that previously worried investors. But traders are happy now.

"As the world goes mobile, so does its social network...$FB," said d_ramsden.

$FB bottomline: proven business model with tons of growth potential - no brainer," said chirokarras.

Shares of rival Twitter (TWTR), which reports its results next week, also soared. The two stocks were the biggest gainers in CNNMoney's Tech 30 index.

But investors weren't as impressed with results from two other tech giants after the bell Thursday.

Google (GOOG, Fortune 500) was flat in after-hours trading after the company's earnings came in below estimates. Google announced Wednesday that it was selling its Motorola Mobility smartphone business to China's Lenovo for $2.9 billion. Amazon (AMZN, Fortune 500)tumbled 7% in after-hours trading after its earnings and sales came in below expectations.

However, shares of Mexican restaurant chain Chipotle (CMG) jumped 10% after-hours as fourth quarter sales surpassed estimates.

Shares of Under Armour (UA) surged 23% to a new record high after its earnings blew past Wall Street expectations. In an interesting take, some StockTwits traders surmised the gains were weather-related. The company did cite strong sales of fleece, gloves and headwear.

"$UA Love this in the winter. Always outperforms," said SlavaK.

"Polar vortex might have helped sales," said BeckyHiu, referring to the unusually frigid temperatures that have gripped much of the country in recent months.

But things are looking increasingly bleak for struggling retailer J.C. Penney (JCP, Fortune 500). The stock plunged 8% to its lowest level since February 1981. There was no specific news to move the stock, but investors have been watching the company closely to see if it can execute on its much hyped turnaround strategy.

European markets closed mostly higher, but Asian markets ended in the red. Japan's Nikkei dropped 2.5%.

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4:25 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The major averages finished the Thursday session near their highs as the volatile week continued. The Nasdaq surged 1.8% while the S&P 500 gained 1.1% as all ten sectors ended in the green. As a result of the advance, the S&P 500 will enter Friday's session with a slim week-to-date gain of 0.2% while the Nasdaq remains lower by 0.1% for the week.

Stocks jumped out of the gate and continued climbing steadily into the early afternoon. The S&P 500 notched a session high of 1798.77 just before 13:00 ET, and spent the rest of the trading day near that level. The upbeat start to the session was aided by overnight gains in index futures which rallied while the Japanese yen weakened. The futures market received an additional boost an hour before the cash open when it was reported that fourth quarter GDP rose 3.2%, per the advance estimate.

The Nasdaq Composite spent the entire session in the lead with the likes of Amazon.com (AMZN 403.01, +18.81), Google (GOOG 1135.39, +28.47), Facebook (FB 61.08, +7.55), and Qualcomm (QCOM 73.26, +2.14) providing support. Amazon.com and Google rallied ahead of their earnings while Facebook and Qualcomm posted respective gains of 14.1% and 3.0% after reporting better-than-expected results.

Biotechnology also factored into the outperformance of the Nasdaq as the iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 249.96, +7.16) rose 3.0%. In turn, this underpinned the health care space (+1.8%), which ended in the lead.

Similar to health care, other heavily-weighted sectors like consumer discretionary (+1.7%), financials (+1.3%), and technology (+1.5%) ended ahead of the broader market.

Elsewhere, the energy sector (+0.2%) finished behind the remaining groups as Dow component ExxonMobil (XOM 93.99, -1.12) lagged after missing on earnings.

Speaking of the Dow (+0.7%), the price-weighted index was unable to keep pace with the broader market as 3M (MMM 128.05, -2.20) and Boeing (BA 126.53, -3.25) weighed. 3M lost 1.7% after reporting in-line earnings on below-consensus revenue while Boeing fell 2.5% after cautious guidance overshadowed its earnings beat.

Treasuries ended near the middle of their range with the 10-yr yield up two basis points at 2.70%.

Trading volume was below average as 641 million shares changed hands at the NYSE.

Today's economic data included initial claims, fourth quarter GDP, and the pending home sales report for December.
Related Stories

How the Dow Jones industrial average did Thursday Associated Press
US STOCKS SNAPSHOT-S&P 500 ends at record closing high Reuters
Wall Street rallies on Facebook and GDP; Amazon sinks late Reuters
U.S. stocks rally after retail sales top forecasts MarketWatch
US STOCKS-Wall St rebounds with tech gains, signs of growth Reuters

Most notably, GDP increased 3.2% in the fourth quarter, according to the advance estimate. That was down from a 4.1% gain in the third quarter but slightly above the Briefing.com consensus estimate of a 3.0% increase. Despite the above-consensus reading, the report was actually a disappointment. Real final sales, which our model was tracking to be near a 4.0% gain, only increased 2.8%. That was the largest increase since a 3.4% gain in Q1 2012, but it was within the same trends that we have been seeing for the past couple of years. Contrary to the headline numbers, there has been no real acceleration in growth over the last few quarters.
Weekly initial claims unexpectedly spiked to 348,000 from an upwardly revised 329,000 (from 326,000) while the Briefing.com consensus expected the claims level to fall to 325,000.
Pending home sales for December tumbled 8.7%, which was worse than the 0.2% decrease forecast by the Briefing.com consensus. The reading followed last month's revised decrease of 0.3% (from +0.2%).

Tomorrow, December Personal Income, Personal Spending, Core PCE Prices, and the fourth quarter Employment Cost Index will all be released at 8:30 ET while the final reading of the University of Michigan Consumer Survey for January will be reported at 9:55 ET.

Nasdaq Composite -1.3% YTD
Russell 2000 -2.0% YTD
S&P 500 -2.9% YTD
Dow Jones Industrial Average -4.4% YTD

3:30 pm: [BRIEFING.COM]

Precious metals traded lower today as the dollar index climbed on this morning's GDP data. According to the advance reading, GDP rose 3.2% in Q4, while the Briefing.com consensus estimate called for a 3.0% increase.
Feb gold brushed a session low of $1237.50 per ounce in morning action and traded in a consolidative fashion just above that level for the remainder of the session. Unable to gain momentum, it settled with a 1.6% loss at $1241.90 per ounce.
Mar silver dipped to a session low of $18.97 per ounce and eventually settled at $19.13 per ounce, or 2.1% lower.
Mar crude oil, on the other hand, gained strength on the GDP data. The energy component touched a session high of $98.59 per barrel moments before equity markets opened and spent the remainder of the session trading just below that level. It settled with a 1.0% gain at $98.25 per barrel.
Mar natural gas erased most of yesterday's 10% gain as it tumbled on forecasts for milder weather and inventory data. The EIA reported that inventories for the week ending Jan 24 showed a draw of 230 bcf when a draw of 231-236 bcf was anticipated. Priced touched a session high of $5.30 per MMBtu in late morning pit trade but slipped again in afternoon action. Natural gas dipped to a session low of $4.98 per MMBtu moments before settling at $5.02 per MMBtu, or 7.6% lower.

3:00 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 trades higher by 1.3% with one hour remaining in today's session. Shortly after the close, investors will receive a slew of quarterly reports. Amazon.com (AMZN 403.48, +19.28) and Google (GOOG 1147.86, +40.94) will headline the list, but the market will also receive results from other notable names like Broadcom (BRCM 29.20, +0.51), Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG 496.43, +11.93), JDS Uniphase (JDSU 12.45, +0.40), and McKesson (MCK 176.88, +3.60).

Tomorrow morning, the focus will shift to Chevron (CVX 116.41, +0.41), Tyson Foods (TSN 34.50, +0.11), and Mastercard (MA 79.56, +1.86).

2:30 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 remains not far from its session high but the Dow Jones Industrial Average has narrowed its advance to 0.6%.

In part, the Dow has been dragged lower by Boeing (BA 125.61, -4.15), which trades down 3.3%. This morning, Boeing reported better-than-expected earnings and issued disappointing guidance. The stock held its flat line throughout the morning but has been sliding through the afternoon.

2:05 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 sports an advance of 1.1% as the quiet afternoon continues. After surging out of the gate, the benchmark index spent the first three hours of action in a steady climb. The rally then stalled just below the 1,800 level, where the index continues to trade at this juncture.

With tomorrow's session marking the end of the month, the major averages are on pace to register their first monthly loss since August when the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 4.4% while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 fell 1.0% and 3.1%, respectively.

Once again, the Nasdaq is in position to outperform its peers as it holds a January loss of 1.2%. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 is lower by 3.0% so far this month while the Dow displays a month-to-date decline of 4.5%.

With regard to individual sectors, health care and utilities are on pace to register respective gains of 1.8% and 1.9% while the remaining eight groups are likely to end the month in the red.

1:30 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] Yesterday's day of angst about being in the market has been replaced today with a sense of angst about not being in the market. The major indices have come storming back with short-covering activity undoubtedly playing a role in the advance.

Facebook (FB 61.99, +8.46) -- and the reaction to Facebook's earnings -- helped set the tone that turned yesterday's selling tide. If there is a risk surrounding that report, it is that it has raised the expectations bar even higher for Google (GOOG 1139.94, +33.02) and Amazon.com (AMZN 400.86, +16.66), which report after the close today.

Strong results and/or encouraging guidance from them could be the difference come Friday between the Nasdaq Composite ending the month of January with either a gain or a loss. It needs the help. Including today's 2.0% move, the Nasdaq is still down 1.1% for the month. The S&P 500, meanwhile, is down 2.8%. Barring an utterly eye-popping move on Friday, there is apt to be plenty of mention over the weekend of the "January Barometer," which is couched in the maxim, "As goes the S&P 500 in January, so goes the year."

Separately, today's $29 bln 7-yr note auction was solid, drawing a high yield of 2.19% on a 2.65x bid-to-cover ratio that was above the 12-auction average of 2.56x. Indirect bidders took down a higher-than-usual 47.7% of the supply (12-auction average was 40.3%).

1:00 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] At midday, equity indices sit on their highs with the Nasdaq (+2.0%) in the lead. The S&P 500 trades up 1.3% as all ten sectors hover in the green.

Prior to the open, it was reported that fourth quarter GDP rose 3.2%, according to the advance reading. The above-consensus reading (Briefing.com consensus 3.0%) gave an additional boost to index futures, which have been inching higher through the overnight session.

Another supportive factor for equities has been the return of yen weakness. After notching their highs after Wednesday's FOMC tapering announcement, yen futures retreated steadily. At this juncture, futures on the yen trade lower by 0.8%, narrowing their January gain to 2.4%.

With the fourth quarter earnings season in full swing, the market received an avalanche of quarterly reports between yesterday's closing bell and today's open. The top-weighted Dow component, Visa (V 222.84, +5.72) trades higher by 2.6% after beating earnings estimates by four cents. Two other index members, 3M (MMM 128.10, -2.15) and ExxonMobil (XOM 94.70, -0.41), also reported their results, but both names trade in the red. 3M reported in-line earnings on below-consensus revenue while ExxonMobil missed on both metrics.

The disappointing results from 3M and ExxonMobil have had an impact on their respective sectors as both energy (+0.6%) and industrials (+1.1%) trail the broader market. The materials space (+0.8%) is the only one other laggard among cyclical sectors while consumer discretionary (+2.0%), financials (+1.5%), and technology (+1.7%) outperform.

Notably, the discretionary sector has drawn considerable strength from Amazon.com (AMZN 402.27, +18.07), which trades up 4.6% ahead of its earnings report due after the close.

Elsewhere, the technology space has rallied with help from Facebook (FB 61.98, +8.43) and Qualcomm (QCOM 73.25, +2.13) after both reported above-consensus earnings.

With stocks on highs, Treasuries sit near their lows. The 10-yr note is down 10 ticks with its yield up four basis points at 2.72%.

Today's economic data included initial claims, fourth quarter GDP, and the pending home sales report for December.

Most notably, GDP increased 3.2% in the fourth quarter, according to the advance estimate. That was down from a 4.1% gain in the third quarter but slightly above the Briefing.com consensus estimate of a 3.0% increase. Despite the above-consensus reading, the report was actually a disappointment. Real final sales, which our model was tracking to be near a 4.0% gain, only increased 2.8%. That was the largest increase since a 3.4% gain in Q1 2012, but it was within the same trends that we have been seeing for the past couple of years. Contrary to the headline numbers, there has been no real acceleration in growth over the last few quarters.
Weekly initial claims unexpectedly spiked to 348,000 from an upwardly revised 329,000 (from 326,000) while the Briefing.com consensus expected the claims level to fall to 325,000.
Pending home sales for December tumbled 8.7%, which was worse than the 0.2% decrease forecast by the Briefing.com consensus. The reading followed last month's revised decrease of 0.3% (from +0.2%).

12:30 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] Equity indices remain near their highs with the Nasdaq (+1.9%) just shy of a 2.0% increase for the session. The S&P 500 trades up 1.2% while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (+0.9%) has yet to extend its gain past the 1.0% mark.

The price-weighted Dow lags even as 25 of 30 components register gains. Of the 25, five display gains of 2.0% or more-Disney (DIS 73.34, +2.02), Caterpillar (CAT 92.41, +1.79), Nike (NKE 73.70, +1.94), UnitedHealth (UNH 72.85, +1.59), and Visa (V 222.24, +5.12).

On the downside, 3M (MMM 127.88, -2.37) is lower by 1.8% after reporting in-line earnings on below-consensus revenue. ExxonMobil (XOM 94.53, -0.58) also appears among the laggards after missing earnings estimates by one cent. The largest energy component displays a loss of 0.6%.

12:00 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] Another round of new highs for the major averages has helped the S&P 500 (+1.3%) erase its loss from yesterday. Furthermore, the benchmark index has erased its week-to-date loss, and now sports a modest gain of 0.4%.

For the past two weeks we have been keeping a close eye on the performance of the Japanese yen as the currency began strengthening after spending 2013 in a steady downtrend. The new-found yen strength posed a headwind to carry trades, which in turn weighed on the broader equity averages.

Today, however, yen futures sit on their lows while the dollar/yen pair hovers at its best level of the day. Futures on the yen trade lower by 0.8%, narrowing their January gain to 2.3%.

11:35 am: [BRIEFING.COM] Stocks have inched to new highs with the Nasdaq (+1.7%) maintaining its lead. The tech-heavy index continues to enjoy broad support from large components like Facebook (FB 62.25, +8.72), Google (GOOG 1138.00, +31.08), and Qualcomm (QCOM 72.43, +1.31) as well as biotechnology. The iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 250.51, +7.71) trades up 3.2%. In turn, biotech is also lending support to the health care sector (+1.8%), which shares the lead with the discretionary space.

Notably, today's relative strength of the discretionary sector comes after the group led much of the recent weakness. Despite its current 1.8% gain, the discretionary sector remains lower by 4.6% in January.

11:00 am: [BRIEFING.COM] After seeing a slight retreat from their opening highs, the major averages have returned to their best levels of the session. The S&P 500 trades higher by 0.9% with seven of ten sectors taking part in the rally.

Generally speaking, top-weighted sectors are doing the bulk of today's heavy lifting as consumer discretionary (+1.4%), health care (+1.6%), and technology (+1.2%) outperform while financials (+0.9%) trade in-line with the S&P 500. Together, the four sectors account for nearly 60% of the entire S&P.

On the downside, energy (-0.2%), materials (-0.1%), and telecom services (-0.3%) display modest losses. Energy remains pressured by ExxonMobil (XOM 93.75, -1.36) while Potash (POT 30.56, -1.27) weighs on materials. Both companies trade in the red after reporting disappointing quarterly results.

10:35 am: [BRIEFING.COM]

Commodities are mostly lower this morning following strength in the dollar index.
Natural gas futures were selling off hard ahead of the EIA weekly inventory data figures. Just ahead of the data, Mar nat gas was about 6.1% lower at $5.13/MMbtu.
Following the data, Mar nat gas -5% at $5.19/MMBtu
Metals remains in the red and not far above morning lows. Feb gold is now -1.6% at $1242.50/oz, Mar silver is -1.9% at $19.18/oz.
Crude oil has been outperforming in the energy space this morning and is now +0.9% at $98.22/barrel, despite a small sell-off here.

10:05 am: [BRIEFING.COM] Equities have taken a step back from their early highs, but the S&P 500 continues to trade higher by 0.6%.

Pending home sales for December tumbled 8.7%, which was worse than the 0.2% decrease forecast by the Briefing.com consensus. Today's reading followed last month's revised decrease of 0.3% (from +0.2%).

9:40 am: [BRIEFING.COM] As expected, the major averages began the session on an upbeat note with the Nasdaq (+1.3%) providing leadership. The tech-heavy index has received early support from influential components like Amazon.com (AMZN 389.44, +5.24), Google (GOOG 1144.22, +37.30), and Facebook (FB 61.37, +7.84). Notably, Facebook has surged 14.7% after reporting above-consensus earnings.

Meanwhile, the S&P 500 trades higher by 0.9% with nine of ten sectors showing early gains. Health care (+1.5%), technology (+1.3%), and financials (+1.0%) are in the lead while energy lags. The sector hovers just below its flat line as Dow component ExxonMobil (XOM 93.56, -1.55) weighs after missing earnings estimates.

Moving from one Dow member to another, Visa (V 221.19, +4.07) trades higher by 1.9% following its four-cent beat.

The December Pending Home Sales report will be released at 10:00 ET.

9:13 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +14.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +40.70. The stock market is on track to register opening gains as index futures hover near their pre-market highs. The S&P 500 futures trade 14 points above fair value while Nasdaq futures (+1.2%) outperform thanks to the early strength of Amazon.com (AMZN 393.04, +8.84) and Google (GOOG 1137.20, +30.28). Amazon.com trades up 2.3% ahead of its after-hours earnings release while Google sports a pre-market advance of 2.7% after selling Motorola Mobility to Lenovo.

Index futures received another boost from the advance fourth quarter GDP report (+3.2% versus +3.0% Briefing.com consensus), which beat expectations even though the overall trends were a bit disappointing. Real final sales, which our model was tracking to be near a 4.0% gain, only increased 2.8%. That was the largest increase since a 3.4% gain in Q1 2012, but it was within the same trends that we have been seeing for the past couple of years. Contrary to the headline numbers, there has been no real acceleration in growth over the last few quarters.

Separately, weekly initial jobless claims unexpectedly spiked to 348,000 from an upwardly revised 329,000 (from 326,000). The Briefing.com consensus expected the initial claims level to fall to 325,000.

With futures on highs, Treasuries hover near their lows with the 10-yr yield up nearly four basis points at 2.72%.

The December Pending Home Sales report will be released at 10:00 ET.

8:58 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +10.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +34.00. The S&P 500 futures trade almost 11 points above fair value.

Major Asian markets ended lower across the board with Japan's Nikkei (-2.5%) leading the decline. Sentiment during the Asian session remained cautious after China's HSBC Manufacturing PMI ticked down to 49.5 from 49.6 (49.6 expected). Furthermore, HSBC said the country's labor market shed jobs at the fastest rate since March 2009.

Also of note, Japan's retail sales rose 2.6% year-over-year (3.8% consensus, 4.1% prior) and the foreign bonds buying report indicated net sales of JPY357.00 billion (-JPY289.50 billion prior). Australia's import price index fell 0.6% quarter-over-quarter (1.0% consensus, 6.1% prior) while the export price index slipped 0.5%, as expected (4.2% prior). Separately, HIA New Home Sales declined 0.4% month-over-month (7.5% previous). Elsewhere, The Reserve Bank of New Zealand left its key interest rate unchanged at 2.50%, as expected. Separately, building consents rose 7.6% month-over-month (-5.0% forecast, 12.5% last) and visitor arrivals ticked up 0.2% month-over-month (3.3% prior).

Japan's Nikkei fell 2.5% but held near four-month lows. Exporters were victimized by the strong yen as Nikon tumbled 5.6% and Toyota Motor sank 2.3%.
Hong Kong's Hang Seng slipped 0.5% in a holiday-shortened session. PC maker Lenovo Group continued its volatile trade, plunging 8.2% after announcing it would pay $2.9bln for Google's Motorola Mobility.
China's Shanghai Composite slid 0.8% as traders booked recent gains ahead of the Lunar New Year. Coal-based names saw sizable losses as Shaanxi Coal and China Shenhua Energy fell 4.3% and 1.6%, respectively.

Major European indices trade little changed while Italy's MIB (+0.4%) outperforms. Investors received several data points today but most notably, Germany's CPI fell 0.6% month-over-month (-0.4% prior, 0.4% last) while the year-over-year reading increased 1.3% (1.5% forecast, 1.4% prior). Also of note, the unemployment declined by 28,000 (-5,000 expected, -19,000 prior) but the unemployment rate held steady at 6.8% (6.9% consensus).

Reviewing other data, Eurozone Consumer Confidence ticked up to -12.0 from -14.0, as expected. Separately, Business and Consumer Survey rose to 100.9 from 100.4 (101.0 forecast) and industrial sentiment declined to -4.0 from -3.4 (-3.0 expected). Great Britain's mortgage approvals increased 72,000 (73,000 forecast, 71,000 last) while mortgage lending came in at GBP1.70 billion (GBP1.00 billion expected, GBP1.10 billion last). Spain's GDP rose 0.3% quarter-over-quarter (0.3% forecast, 0.1% prior) while the year-over-year reading ticked down 0.1% (0.0% expected, -1.1% last). Elsewhere, Swiss KOF Leading Indicators ticked up to 1.98 from 1.95 (2.00 expected). Among news of note, Bank of England Governor Mark Carney spoke about the country's economic progress, saying the recovery still has a long way to go before a rate hike is introduced.

Germany's DAX is lower by 0.1% with exporters lagging again. BMW and Volkswagen are both down near 0.6%. On the upside, Infineon Technologies outperforms with a gain of 3.5% after issuing an upbeat outlook.
In France, the CAC trades down 0.1%. Consumer names appear among the laggards with Carrefour, Pernod Ricard, and L'Oreal down between 1.2% and 3.2%. Utilities display strength with Electricite de France and Veolia Environnement both up near 1.2%.
Great Britain's FTSE sports a loss of 0.2%. Old Mutual, Standard Chartered, and Prudential are down between 1.5% and 2.8%. British Sky Broadcasting is the top performer, trading higher by 3.2%.
Italy's MIB trades up 0.4% with heavyweights Banco Popolare, Fiat, and Telecom Italia in the lead. The three hold gains between 1.6% and 3.2%.

8:33 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +4.60. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +25.00. The S&P 500 futures trade nearly five points above fair value.

The advance fourth quarter GDP report indicated growth of 3.2%, which was better than the 3.2% increase that had been expected by the Briefing.com consensus. Meanwhile, the fourth quarter GDP Deflator came in at +1.3% while the Briefing.com consensus expected a reading of +1.2%.

Separately, the latest weekly initial jobless claims count totaled 348,000, which was higher than the 325,000 that had been expected by the Briefing.com consensus. Today's tally was above the revised prior week count of 329,000 (from 326,000). As for continuing claims, they fell to 2.991 million from 3.007 million.

8:00 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +7.60. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +29.00. U.S. equity futures hover near their pre-market highs despite cautious overseas action. The S&P 500 futures trade nearly eight points above fair value.

Reviewing overnight developments:

Asian markets ended lower. Hong Kong's Hang Seng -0.5%, China's Shanghai Composite -0.8%, and Japan's Nikkei -2.5%.
Investors received several data points:
China's HSBC Manufacturing PMI ticked down to 49.5 from 49.6 (49.6 expected).
Japan's retail sales rose 2.6% year-over-year (3.8% consensus, 4.1% prior) and the foreign bonds buying report indicated net sales of JPY357.00 billion (-JPY289.50 billion prior).
Australia's import price index fell 0.6% quarter-over-quarter (1.0% consensus, 6.1% prior) while the export price index slipped 0.5%, as expected (4.2% prior). Separately, HIA New Home Sales declined 0.4% month-over-month (7.5% previous).
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand left its key interest rate unchanged at 2.50%, as expected. Separately, building consents rose 7.6% month-over-month (-5.0% forecast, 12.5% last) and visitor arrivals ticked up 0.2% month-over-month (3.3% prior).
In news:
Following the release of a disappointing Manufacturing PMI in China, HSBC said the country's labor market shed jobs at the fastest rate since March 2009.

Major European indices display modest losses. Great Britain's FTSE -0.3%, Germany's DAX -0.4%, and France's CAC -0.4%. Elsewhere, Italy's MIB +0.1% and Spain's IBEX -0.1%.
Looking at economic data:
Eurozone Consumer Confidence ticked up to -12.0 from -14.0, as expected. Separately, Business and Consumer Survey rose to 100.9 from 100.4 (101.0 forecast) and industrial sentiment declined to -4.0 from -3.4 (-3.0 expected).
Germany's unemployment declined by 28,000 (-5,000 expected, -19,000 prior) but the unemployment rate held steady at 6.8% (6.9% consensus).
Great Britain's mortgage approvals increased 72,000 (73,000 forecast, 71,000 last) while mortgage lending came in at GBP1.70 billion (GBP1.00 billion expected, GBP1.10 billion last).
Spain's GDP rose 0.3% quarter-over-quarter (0.3% forecast, 0.1% prior) while the year-over-year reading ticked down 0.1% (0.0% expected, -1.1% last).
Swiss KOF Leading Indicators ticked up to 1.98 from 1.95 (2.00 expected).
Among news of note:
Bank of England Governor Mark Carney spoke about the country's economic progress, saying the recovery still has a long way to go before a rate hike is introduced.

In U.S. corporate news:

3M (MMM 131.01, +0.76): +0.6% following its in-line quarterly report.
Celgene (CELG 161.00, +2.54): +1.6% after reporting results in-line with its January 13 preannouncement.
Citrix Systems (CTXS 53.90, -3.70): -6.4% after its disappointing guidance overshadowed its six-cent beat.
Facebook (FB 63.77, +10.24): +19.1% after beating bottom-line estimates by four cents on above-consensus revenue.
Las Vegas Sands (LVS 73.81, -0.12): -0.2% followings its disappointing report. Also of note, the company hiked its quarterly dividend 43% to $0.50 per share.
Qualcomm (QCOM 72.95, +1.83): +2.6% after reporting a bottom-line beat on below-consensus revenue.
Under Armour (UA 94.00, +8.78): +10.3% after beating on earnings and raising its guidance.
Visa (V 226.00, +8.88): +4.1% after beating earnings estimates by four cents.

Weekly initial claims and the advance fourth quarter GDP report will be released at 8:30 ET while the December Pending Home Sales report will cross the wires at 10:00 ET.

6:40 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +9.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +29.00.

6:39 am: [BRIEFING.COM] Nikkei...22035.42...-149.10...-0.50%. Hang Seng...15007.06...-376.90...-2.50%.

6:39 am: [BRIEFING.COM] FTSE...6572.25...-16.10...-0.20%. DAX...9322.05...-14.60...-0.20%.

Dollar Set for Best January Since 2010 Amid U.S. Recovery Signs

By Kevin Buckland and Candice Zachariahs Jan 31, 2014 12:27 AM ET

The dollar headed for its best January since 2010 versus a basket of its peers ahead of data forecast to show Americans increased spending for an eighth month, adding to evidence the U.S. economy is growing.

The yen extended monthly gains versus its 16 major peers as equities fell in Japan and data showing accelerating inflation reduced the case for monetary easing. The euro was poised for its biggest monthly decline since March and the first loss since August against the greenback before a European Central Bank policy meeting Feb. 6. New Zealand’s dollar dropped.

“The U.S. expansion has been confirmed, and that’s been taken as a positive for the dollar,” said Yasuhiro Kaizaki, the vice president for global markets in New York at Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Bank Ltd. “The strong dollar is likely to drive euro selling ahead of the ECB meeting next week, amid rising expectations of a rate cut.”

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, which monitors the greenback against 10 major counterparts, was little changed at 1,030.04 as of 2:24 p.m. in Tokyo from yesterday. It has strengthened 1 percent in January. The greenback traded at $1.3551 per euro from $1.3555, on track for a 1.4 percent rally since Dec. 31.

The yen climbed 0.3 percent to 102.39 per dollar, headed for a 2.8 percent monthly advance that is the biggest since April 2012. It gained 0.4 percent at 138.70 against Europe’s single currency, on track for a 4.2 percent increase in January.

U.S. Recovery

U.S. consumer spending probably rose 0.2 percent in December, following a 0.5 advance in November that was the biggest in five months, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg before the Commerce Department report today.

The U.S. economy expanded at a 3.2 percent pace in the fourth quarter, matching the median forecast in a Bloomberg poll, Commerce Department figures showed yesterday.

The Fed said Jan. 29 it will trim its monthly bond buying to $65 billion from $75 billion, sticking to its plan for a gradual withdrawal from departing Chairman Ben S. Bernanke’s unprecedented easing policy.

Westpac Banking Corp.’s U.S. data surprise index reached the highest since June this month, leading the bank’s New York-based chief currency strategist for the northern hemisphere, Richard Franulovich, to write in a note to clients dated today that “the recent improvement in U.S. growth sentiment is living on borrowed time.”

“We would expect the trend in growth differentials to continue to shift in the USD’s favor over the medium term,” he wrote. “However, there will be setbacks and if anything we could be on the cusp of one.”

Japan Prices

The dollar has risen 0.7 percent this week, the biggest gain along with the yen after the Australian dollar’s 1.7 percent advance among 10 developed-nation currencies tracked by Bloomberg Correlation-Weighted Indexes. The euro has fallen 0.4 percent.

A report today showed Japan’s December core consumer prices rose 1.3 percent from a year earlier, compared with the median estimate for a 1.2 percent gain in a Bloomberg News survey.

“Stronger CPI means bets for additional easing by the Bank of Japan will be pushed back,” said Yuji Saito, the director of foreign-exchange at Credit Agricole Corporate & Investment Bank in Tokyo. That’s not supportive of yen weakness, he said.

Japan’s currency also advanced as the nation’s equities dropped, according to Joseph Capurso, a Sydney-based strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, the nation’s biggest lender.

The Nikkei 225 Stock Average has dropped 9.1 percent this year, while the Topix index fell 6.8 percent. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index has lost 5 percent in January.

Yen Outlook

“We expect the yen to re-weaken when the current jitters in emerging markets settle down,” he said. The currency will fall to 119 per dollar by the end of 2014, CBA forecasts.

The ruble bounced back from a record low yesterday after the Russian central bank affirmed unlimited market interventions to keep the currency within its target corridor amid the sell-off in emerging markets. Central banks from South Africa and Turkey to Argentina have raised interest rates this week to prop up their currencies.

The rand remains the worst performing major currency in January, declining 6.4 percent against the dollar. Turkey’s lira has fallen 5.2 percent. A devaluation of the Argentine peso triggered a 19 percent plunge this month.

The New Zealand dollar extended its worst start to a year since 2010 after Reserve Bank Governor Graeme Wheeler said today the exchange rate has “been stronger and initial indications are that house price inflation may be starting to moderate.”

“The exchange rate remains a considerable headwind for the economy, and the bank does not believe its current level is sustainable in the long run,” he said.

The kiwi fell 0.4 percent to 81.33 U.S. cents, poised for a 1 percent decline this month. Its average over the past 10 years is 72.63 U.S. cents.

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney, Reuters and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader Image@ http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader

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