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 Post subject: January 10th Friday Trade Results - Profit $2180.00
PostPosted: Sat Jan 11, 2014 12:20 am 
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Joined: Sat Jan 10, 2009 1:06 pm
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Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
Phone: +1 708 572-4885
Free Chat Room: http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=164
Business Hours: 8am - 5pm est (Mon - Fri)
questions@thestrategylab.com (24/7)
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click on the above image to view today's performance verification

Price Action Trade Performance for Today: Emini TF ($TF_F) futures @ $2,180.00 dollars or +21.80 points, Emini ES ($ES_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.00 points, Light Crude Oil CL ($CL_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.00 points, Gold GC ($GC_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.00 points and EuroFX 6E ($6E_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.0000 ticks. Total Profit @ $2,180.00 dollars.

Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures: 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures: 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup
Light Crude Oil CL (WTI) Futures: 1 tick or 0.01 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup
Gold GC Futures: 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup
EuroFX 6E Futures: 1 tick or 0.0001 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup

In addition, all of my trades were posted real-time in the chat room. You can read today's chat room logs for details about each one of my trades via price action trading from entry to exit (e.g. time, price, contract size) along with price action commentary as the trade traversed to its completion...all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=126&t=1695

Also, posted below are direct links to information about my price action trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis). I'm primarily a day trader because it suits my personal lifestyle but I do occasionally swing trade and position trade. Simply, my trade method is applicable for position trading, swing trading and day trading.

Image ##TheStrategyLab Chat Room is free. Members and I use the chat room to post WRB Analysis commentary, real-time trades and to post anything else related to trading. The chat room helps me tremendously in my own trading because I use it to document (journal) my thought process from trade to trade so that I can easily review at a later date my thoughts as I interacted with the markets...info I can not get from my broker statements. Also, this is not a signal calling chat room where a head trader tells you when to buy or sell. If you join the chat room and then you do not ask any questions about WRB Analysis in your own trading...the chat room will not be useful to you. Chat room access instructions @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=164

Image Price Action Analysis via WRB Analysis Tutorials @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=119&t=718

Image Trade Signal Strategies via Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our price action trade strategies with support (answering your questions) prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Image Trading Plan Daily Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=229&t=2165

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Market Context Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, CNNMoney, Reuters and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED/ECB/BOE/IMF actions or any important global economic events (e.g. Eurozone, MarketWatch.com) that had an impact on today's price action in many trading instruments I monitor during the trading day. Simply, I'm a strong believer that key market events causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility resulting in trade opportunities (swing points and strong continuation price actions) that reach profit targets. Thus, I pay attention to these key market events, intermarket analysis (e.g. Forex EurUsd, EuroFX 6E futures, Gold GC futures, Light Crude Oil (WTI) CL & Brent Oil futures, Eurex DAX futures, Euronext FTSE100 futures, Emini ES futures, Emini TF futures, Treasury ZB futures and U.S. Dollar Index futures) while using WRB Analysis from one trade to the next trade to give me the market context for price action trading before the appearance of my technical analysis trade signals. Therefore, I maintain these archives to allow me to understand what was happening on any given trading day in the past involving key market events to help better understand my trade decisions (day trading, swing trading, position trading)...something I can not get from my broker statements alone.

Investors Soul Search After Jobs Report

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click on the above image to view today's price action of key markets

NEW YORK (CNNMoney)
Stocks seesawed Friday as investors tried to figure out how a weak jobs report would impact future moves by the Federal Reserve.

The Dow ended flat, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq managed to edge out slight gains. CNNMoney's new Tech 30 index was mostly unchanged. The major indexes ended the first full trading week of 2014 mixed, with the Dow finishing lower and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq in positive territory.

The jobs report was the story of the day. The economy added only 74,000 jobs in December, far below the 193,000 that economists surveyed by CNNMoney had forecast. The unemployment rate last month fell to 6.7% from 7%, the Labor Department said.

The market struggled for direction for most of the day, meandering between slight gains and losses. The fact that stocks didn't take a complete nosedive despite an anemic jobs report may signal that investors don't think the Fed will rush to pull back on, or taper, its massive stimulus program.

That support from the central bank has been a big driver of the bull market.

The Fed announced last month that it will cut the size of its bond buying program since data showed evidence of an improving economy.

* 'I just want a job'

And while the monthly jobs report is often considered the best metric for gauging the health of the economy, some analysts were downplaying it.

"Stocks are shrugging off any fundamental economic impact from a disappointing number for just one month," said FTN Financial's Jim Vogel, adding that other recent economic data has been positive.

The economy is still improving and one unemployment report doesn't change that, according to David Lutz of Stifel Nicolaus,

He believes traders are looking at the jobs number and feeling comfortable that the Fed won't increase the size of its taper anytime soon. The Fed is now buying $75 billion a month in bonds, down from $85 billion previously. There had been expectations that the Fed would keep cutting the size of its bond purchases by $10 billion or so at its next few meetings. That is no longer certain.

Yields on the 10-year Treasury note fell as investors bought more bonds. (Rates and prices move in opposite directions.) That's another sign the market is betting that the Fed will act more cautiously.

"It's a total taper play," Lutz said of the market's reaction.

What's moving: Target (TGT, Fortune 500)shares were under pressure after the retailer said 70 million individuals had information stolen in the recent data breach of credit and debit cards.

"nice job $TGT -- you've handled this fiasco as poorly as you possibly could," quipped StockTwits trader 1nvestor.

The breach announcement came just hours after Goldman Sachs gave Target a "buy" rating and forecast sharp earnings growth for the retailer in 2014.

One StockTwits user thought that an upgrade of Goldman Sachs upgrade would help Target, despite the hacking news.

"will go green," said mytfine. "Must support the upgrade."

But that hasn't happened yet.

Alcoa (AA, Fortune 500) shares sank, one day after the aluminum producer reported quarterly earnings that missed estimates.

But StockTwits trader chaku is optimistic about the stock and shrugged off the downward move.

"$AA this is going to rise again.. very common to see panic," he said.

Sears (SHLD, Fortune 500) shares plunged more than 13% after the retailer reported a big drop in same-store sales during the holiday season and issued a weaker-than-expected forecast.

"$SHLD Sears enter Death Spiral..might bankrupt by 2017," said StockTwits user BlessMe.

Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) shares surged 12% after the clothing retailer raised its earnings guidance for the year.

But StockTwits trader FedGamer felt some profit-taking was in order.

"$ANF He who sells and runs away, lives to sell another day," he said.

European markets finished mostly higher, while Asian markets closed with mixed results.

Image



Dow -7.71 at 16437.05, Nasdaq +18.47 at 4174.66, S&P +4.24 at 1842.37

The major averages ended the first full week of 2014 on a mixed note. The S&P 500 added 0.2% while the Dow Jones Industrial Average shed less than 0.1%. For the week, the S&P 500 gained 0.6% while the Dow slipped 0.2%.

Prior to the open, it was reported that job growth slowed considerably in December with the addition of just 74,000 jobs. This was well below the Briefing.com consensus, which called for a reading of 197,000. The unemployment rate plunged to 6.7% from 7.0% but that was a result of another sharp drop in the labor force participation rate. Furthermore, aggregate wages fell 0.1% after increasing 0.7% in November. The drop is expected to put downward pressure on consumption growth unless consumers decide to lower their savings rate.

The disappointing report pressured the dollar while metals and Treasuries rallied, suggesting a fair amount of participants expect the Fed to delay the next round of tapering. The dollar index finished near its low (-0.5% at 80.64) while Treasuries ended on their highs (10-yr yield -10 bps at 2.86%). Meanwhile, gold futures advanced 1.4% to $1246.60/ozt.

The strength in precious metals underpinned miners, which contributed to the strength of the materials sector. The Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX 22.01, +0.74) jumped 3.5% while the broader sector ended ahead of the remaining cyclical groups with a gain of 0.4%. Even though the sector displayed strength, there were still some pockets of weakness. Namely, Alcoa (AA 10.11, -0.58) fell 5.4% after missing bottom-line estimates by two cents. The company said it expects to see global aluminum demand grow at 7.0% in 2014, which matches last year's growth rate.

Outside of materials, the discretionary sector (+0.4%) was another notable outperformer among growth-sensitive groups. Homebuilders provided significant support as the iShares Dow Jones US Home Construction ETF (ITB 24.76, +0.35) jumped 1.4% amid today's retreat in yields.

Speaking of lower yields, they also factored into the outperformance of rate-sensitive telecom services (+0.4%) and utilities (+1.4%). The other two countercyclical groups were mixed as health care (+0.4%) outperformed while consumer staples (+0.2%) ended in-line with the S&P 500.

On the downside, the financial sector (-0.1%) was the lone decliner. Citigroup (C 54.72, -0.48) underperformed the other majors with a loss of 0.9%.

Despite the mixed finish, participants did not show strong demand for volatility protection as the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX 12.18, -0.71) fell 5.5%, ending at its lowest level of 2014.

Trading volume was well below average as only 656 million shares changed hands on the NYSE floor.

Outside of the aforementioned nonfarm payrolls, investors received another data point today.

In November, wholesale inventories increased 0.5%, down from a 1.3% (from 1.4%) gain in October. The Briefing.com consensus expected wholesale inventories to increase 0.2%. Inventory growth over the past few months has been extremely strong, yet similar gains in sales suggest inventory growth trends can remain on the current path. Sales rose 1.0% in November after increasing 1.1% in October.

On Monday, the December Treasury Budget will be reported at 14:00 ET.

Week in Review: Spinning Wheels

On Monday, the S&P 500 was unable to log its first gain of 2014 despite staging an afternoon rally. The benchmark index registered its third consecutive loss, shedding 0.3% as six of ten sectors finished in the red. Equities began the day on a modestly higher note, but the early gains evaporated during the opening hour as the broader market followed the Nasdaq Composite into the red. The tech-heavy index was hit with widespread selling pressure that weighed on many top components and biotechnology. Shares of eBay (EBAY 52.16, +0.09) settled lower by 2.8% after receiving a downgrade.

Tuesday's session saw the S&P 500 settle higher by 0.6%. The index notched its high during the initial 90 minutes and spent the remainder of the session in a narrow range. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq (+1.0%) inched to a fresh high during the late afternoon. Nine of ten sectors registered gains while materials (-0.2%) spent the day in negative territory. The sector was pressured by steelmakers with Market Vectors Steel ETF (SLX 47.37, +0.43) falling 0.4%.

The major averages ended the Wednesday session on a mixed note as the Nasdaq added 0.3%, the Dow shed 0.4% while the S&P 500 essentially split the difference, ending flat. Equity indices began the day on a lower note, but the Nasdaq and S&P 500 staged swift rallies to new highs. The two indices hovered near their best levels of the session for the remainder of the trading day, but tested their lows during the final hour. Six of ten sectors ended in the red with rate-sensitive consumer staples (-0.7%), telecom services (-1.7%), and utilities (-0.6%) leading the slide as higher yields weighed.

Thursday saw another mixed close as the S&P 500 added less than a point while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (-0.1%) and Nasdaq (-0.2%) posted modest losses. Stocks displayed early strength, but sellers were quick to knock the indices off their opening highs. The Nasdaq outperformed out of the gate, but ultimately led the broader market into the red. Despite the late-morning weakness, the S&P 500 was able to find support at Wednesday's low where dip buyers stepped up and helped the index return to its flat line. Individual sectors ended with an even split as five groups posted gains while the other five ended lower.

Canadian Currency Reaches 4-Year Low as Jobs Data Fuel Rate Bets

By Ari Altstedter Jan 10, 2014 5:09 PM ET

Canada’s dollar touched to a four-year low as the nation’s jobless rate unexpectedly rose, led by the largest drop in full-time (CANLFLNC) work since 2011, adding to bets the central bank may consider cutting interest rates.

The currency declined for a fifth day, the longest losing streak since August, as the Canadian unemployment rate reached 7.2 percent in December, taking it above the U.S. jobless measure for the first time since 2008. Employment in America, the nation’s biggest trade partner, grew less than forecast. Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz said this week he has “some room to maneuver” on interest rates.

“The Bank of Canada is definitely on hold on the back of that one,” said Sebastien Galy, senior foreign-exchange strategist at Societe Generale SA, by phone from New York. “It has all the right elements for the Bank of Canada to maintain a very dovish message and kind of implicitly encourage the Canadian dollar to weaken.”

The loonie, as the Canadian currency is known for the image of the aquatic bird on the C$1 coin, depreciated 0.5 percent to C$1.0892 per U.S. dollar at 5 p.m. in Toronto. It reached C$1.0946, the weakest since October 2009. One Canadian dollar buys 91.81 U.S. cents.

Canada’s currency sank versus all of its 16 major peers. It has lost 2.4 percent this week, the most in six months.

Implied volatility for three-month options on the U.S. dollar against its Canadian counterpart increased to a five-week high. The measure, which is used to set option prices and gauge the expected pace of currency swings, reached 7.32 percent, the most since Dec. 5. It touched a four-week low of 6 percent on Dec. 18. The 2013 average was 6.67 percent.

Net Shorts

Futures traders increased bets for the first time in three weeks that the loonie will fall against the U.S. dollar, figures from the Washington-based Commodity Futures Trading Commission show. The difference in the number of wagers by hedge funds and other large speculators on a decline in Canada’s dollar compared with those on a gain -- so-called net shorts -- was 60,542 on Jan. 7, compared with net shorts of 57,956 a week earlier.

Government bonds climbed, pushing yields on Canada’s benchmark 10-year security down 13 basis points, or 0.13 percentage point, to 2.56 percent. They touched 2.55 percent, the lowest level since Nov. 29. The price of the 1.5 percent debt due in June 2023 advanced 98 cents to C$91.25.

Yield Spread

The yield on two-year government bonds, more closely tied to short-term rate expectations, fell as much as nine basis points to 1.01 percent, the lowest level since May. The drop reduced the securities’ yield advantage over comparable U.S. Treasuries to 65 basis points, the narrowest since June 2012, reducing the relative attractiveness of Canadian-dollar-denominated securities.

Yields on June 2014 bankers’ acceptance contracts fell to 1.19 percent, the lowest since they started trading in June 2011. The decline suggests investors are seeing more likelihood of a cut in the Bank of Canada’s benchmark interest-rate target.

The central bank’s next interest-rate decision is scheduled for Jan. 22.

“A soft easing bias being communicated in the January statement is on the table,” Greg Anderson, head of global foreign-exchange strategy at Bank of Montreal, said by telephone from New York. “An easing by mid-summer? Yeah, it’s a possibility now.”

Net employment in the nation fell by 45,900 jobs, Statistics Canada said today in Ottawa. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News projected a 14,100-job increase and an unchanged unemployment rate of 6.9 percent, according to the median forecasts.

Full-time employment declined by 60,000 workers, the most since October 2011, while part-time positions rose by 14,200, the data showed.

Trade Deficit

The jobs data followed reports this week showing the country’s trade deficit swelled in November to nine times what economists forecast and a purchasing-managers index slid in December to a four-year low. Canadian inflation fell below the central bank’s target range of 1 percent to 3 percent in October and November and has been below 2 percent since May 2012.

Canada’s dollar tumbled 6.6 percent in 2013, its biggest drop in five years, as accelerating economic growth in the U.S. convinced the Federal Reserve to start slowing monetary stimulus even as the Bank of Canada warned of deflationary risks. In a Dec. 17 interview with Bloomberg News, Poloz said inflation has been “lower than we can explain” while exports and investment have been disappointing.

Maneuvering Room

Poloz said in an interview broadcast Jan. 7 by the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation that while he plans to keep interest rates on hold, there’s room to cut them if necessary. He said he’s under no pressure to raise rates.

The greenback fell versus most major peers today as lower-than-forecast job gains damped speculation the Fed will keep winding down the bond-buying it uses to spur economic growth.

U.S. payrolls rose by 74,000 jobs in December, less than half the 197,000 projected in a Bloomberg survey and the least since January 2011. The data followed a revised 241,000 advance the prior month, Labor Department figures showed. The unemployment rate fell to 6.7 percent, from 7 percent, as more people left the labor force.

The loonie declined 2.7 percent this week among the 10 developed-nation currencies tracked by the Bloomberg Correlation-Weighted Index. It was one of only two currencies on the index to fall. The U.S. dollar slipped 0.1 percent.

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney, Reuters and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader Image@ http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader

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