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Forum for price action traders that want to learn WRB Analysis basic tutorial chapters 1, 2 and 3 prior to purchasing our advance trade methods. Hashtags: #wrbanalysis #wrbzone #wrbhiddengap #priceaction #trading
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 Post subject: January 2nd Thursday Trade Results - Profit $2135.00
PostPosted: Fri Jan 03, 2014 12:02 am 
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Joined: Sat Jan 10, 2009 2:06 pm
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Location: Canada
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Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
Phone: +1 708 572-4885
Free Chat Room: http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=164
Business Hours: 8am - 5pm est (Mon - Fri)
questions@thestrategylab.com (24/7)
http://twitter.com/wrbtrader (24/7)

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click on the above image to view today's performance verification

Price Action Trade Performance for Today: Emini TF ($TF_F) futures @ $1010.00 dollars or +10.10 points, Emini ES ($ES_F) futures @ $1,125.00 dollars or +22.50 points, Light Crude Oil CL ($CL_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.00 points, Gold GC ($GC_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.00 points and EuroFX 6E ($6E_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.0000 ticks. Total Profit @ $2,135.00 dollars.

Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures: 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures: 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup
Light Crude Oil CL (WTI) Futures: 1 tick or 0.01 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup
Gold GC Futures: 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup
EuroFX 6E Futures: 1 tick or 0.0001 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup

In addition, all of my trades were posted real-time in the chat room. You can read today's chat room logs for details about each one of my trades via price action trading from entry to exit (e.g. time, price, contract size) along with price action commentary as the trade traversed to its completion...all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=126&t=1689

Also, posted below are direct links to information about my price action trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis). I'm primarily a day trader because it suits my personal lifestyle but I do occasionally swing trade and position trade. Simply, my trade method is applicable for position trading, swing trading and day trading.

Image ##TheStrategyLab Chat Room is free. Members and I use the chat room to post WRB Analysis commentary, real-time trades and to post anything else related to trading. The chat room helps me tremendously in my own trading because I use it to document (journal) my thought process from trade to trade so that I can easily review at a later date my thoughts as I interacted with the markets...info I can not get from my broker statements. Also, this is not a signal calling chat room where a head trader tells you when to buy or sell. If you join the chat room and then you do not ask any questions about WRB Analysis in your own trading...the chat room will not be useful to you. Chat room access instructions @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=164

Image Price Action Analysis via WRB Analysis Tutorials @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=119&t=718

Image Trade Signal Strategies via Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our price action trade strategies with support (answering your questions) prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Image Trading Plan Daily Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=229&t=2165

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Market Context Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, CNNMoney, Reuters and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED/ECB/BOE/IMF actions or any important global economic events (e.g. Eurozone, MarketWatch.com) that had an impact on today's price action in many trading instruments I monitor during the trading day. Simply, I'm a strong believer that key market events causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility resulting in trade opportunities (swing points and strong continuation price actions) that reach profit targets. Thus, I pay attention to these key market events, intermarket analysis (e.g. Forex EurUsd, EuroFX 6E futures, Gold GC futures, Light Crude Oil (WTI) CL & Brent Oil futures, Eurex DAX futures, Euronext FTSE100 futures, Emini ES futures, Emini TF futures, Treasury ZB futures and U.S. Dollar Index futures) while using WRB Analysis from one trade to the next trade to give me the market context for price action trading before the appearance of my technical analysis trade signals. Therefore, I maintain these archives to allow me to understand what was happening on any given trading day in the past involving key market events to help better understand my trade decisions (day trading, swing trading, position trading)...something I can not get from my broker statements alone.

Stocks Start 2014 In The Red

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click on the above image to view today's price action of key markets

NEW YORK (CNNMoney)
Stocks got off to a weak start for the year, as investors took a step back amid worries about slowing economic growth in China.

The Dow fell more than 130 points, or nearly 1%. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq also declined about 1%. This is the first time markets started the year on a down note since 2008.

Investors were in a cautious mood after data showed that China's factories lost some momentum in December, adding to fears that the world's second-largest economy may soften in the new year.

Economic data in the United States wasn't all that positive either. Manufacturing activity grew in December, but at a slightly slower pace than the previous month, according to the Institute for Supply Management's index. Initial jobless claims fell for a second straight week but came in slightly higher than expectations.

Trading volume will likely remain light this week as many traders are still away for the holidays.

On the corporate front, shares of Fiat (FIADF) jumped 16% in Milan after the Italian automaker announced Wednesday it was buying full control of Chrysler.

A series of upgrades and downgrades from Wall Street analysts sent a number of big stocks moving.

Shares of Apple (AAPL, Fortune 500) slid after Wells Fargo downgraded the iPhone maker to "market-perform" from "outperform."

Sprint (S, Fortune 500) moved lower following a downgrade from Cowen & Co.

A downgrade from Jefferies sent shares Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) lower, while an upgrade of Urban Outfitters (URBN) boosted that retailer's shares.

Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500) shares gained ground after Citigroup analysts upgraded the stock to a "buy" from "neutral."

Traders on StockTwits thought Bank of America's strong start to the year could mean good things for the financial sector in 2014.

"$BAC Doors of reality waking up for some, as financials will be a huge winner in 14...Bullish," said traderrick1.

"I'd like to know where all the people who said $BAC going out of business are now," said micmaher. "Stronger U.S. economy and steeper yield curve = profits. Bullish."

While most stocks were lower Thursday, gold started off on a strong note, rising almost 2%. The precious metal fell 28% in 2013, marking the first down year for gold prices since 2000. As gold priced advanced, shares of Newmont Mining (NEM, Fortune 500) and other gold miners surged, as well as the SPDR Gold ETF (GLD) and the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX).

StockTwits traders predicted that after a dismal 2013, this could be gold's year to shine.

"2014 surprise will be $GDX and $GLD," said Lach14. "Starting today."

StockTwits user hakihika said gold is one of his "favorite ideas for 2014."

"Hated in 2013, lots claiming it'll go to $1,000," he added. "Outperform in 2014. Off to a good start. $GLD."

U.S. stocks finished higher Tuesday -- the final trading day of 2013 -- with the Dow and S&P closing out 2013 with record highs. The Dow ended the year with a 26% gain, while the S&P 500 jumped more than 29% and the Nasdaq surged nearly 40%.

Markets were closed around the world Wednesday for the New Year's holiday.

* Which world markets will be hot in 2014?

European markets closed the first day of the year lower, with France's CAC 40 index and Germany's DAX declining by 1.6%.

Most Asian markets ended the day with small gains. The Shanghai Composite index moved up nearly 1%. The Tokyo Stock Exchange was closed for an extended New Year break.

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4:10 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] After gaining nearly 30.0% in 2013, the S&P 500 exhibited a bit of a hangover in its first session of 2014. The benchmark index fell 0.9% as all ten sectors registered losses.

Stocks were pressured from the opening bell as cautious action in Europe weighed on the early sentiment. In all likelihood, the slide caught a number of participants off guard given the understanding that the first few days of a new year are known to have a favorable bias with inflows into IRA accounts, bonus money being put to work, and new money coming off the sidelines. That did not happen today as sellers maintained control throughout the trading day.

Three cyclical sectors-energy (-1.3%), industrials (-1.3%), and technology (-1.1%)-slipped behind the broader market at the open and their underperformance weighed for the remainder of the session.

The energy sector followed in the lead of crude oil as the energy component tumbled 3.0% to $95.49/bbl. Meanwhile, industrials were pressured by defense contractors and transports. The PHLX Defense Index lost 1.3% while The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.5%.

Elsewhere, the technology sector struggled to gain traction as its largest component, Apple (AAPL 553.13, -7.89), weighed after Wells Fargo downgraded the stock to 'Market Perform' from 'Outperform.' Chipmakers also lagged, sending the PHLX Semiconductor Index lower by 1.4%.

Even though three large sectors pressured the broader market throughout the day, there was some relative strength in other heavily-weighted groups. On that note, consumer discretionary (-0.5%), financials (-0.6%), and health care (-0.6%) outperformed.

Notably, the financial sector owed some its outperformance to Bank of America (BAC 16.10, +0.53), which gained 3.4% after Citigroup upgraded the stock to 'Buy' from 'Neutral.' JPMorgan Chase (JPM 58.21, +0.11) also bucked the downtrend, climbing 0.2%.

Treasuries rallied throughout the day as the benchmark 10-yr yield slid from 3.04% to 2.99%.

Trading volume was on the light side as just over 610 million shares changed hands on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange.

Today's economic data was limited to three reports, but neither had much of a trading impact:

Weekly initial claims dipped to 339,000 from an upwardly revised 341,000 (from 338,000) while the Briefing.com consensus estimate was pegged at 333,000. Notably, there was no indication from the Department of Labor that seasonal adjustments continued creating difficulties.
Construction spending in November rose 1.0% while the Briefing.com consensus expected an increase of 0.8%. The November gain followed an upwardly revised 0.9% increase (from 0.8%) in October. Total private construction, paced by a 1.9% increase in residential spending, was up 2.2% and led the overall advance. Nonresidential private spending jumped 2.7%, paced by gains in the commercial (+4.7%), office (+4.6%), power (+3.3%), and manufacturing (+1.2%) spaces.
The December ISM Index checked in at 57.0, which was pretty much in-line with the Briefing.com consensus estimate of 56.9. The December reading was the second highest reading for the year, trailing only the 57.3 reading seen in November.

There is no economic data on tomorrow's schedule.

Nasdaq -0.8% YTD
DJIA -0.8% YTD
S&P 500 -0.9% YTD
Russell 2000 -1.1% YTD

3:30 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] Feb crude oil extended losses for a third consecutive session as a stronger dollar index and reports that Libyan protesters have agreed to reopen a key oil field weighed on prices. The energy component trended lower after pulling back from its session high of $97.66 per barrel set at pit trade open. It fell below the $96 per barrel level and settled with a 3.0% loss at $95.49 per barrel.

Feb natural gas chopped around in positive territory today. It dipped to a session low of $4.27 per MMBtu in early afternoon pit action but quickly regained momentum. It settled with a 2.1% gain at $4.32 per MMBtu, just below its session high of $4.33 per MMBtu.

Precious metals traded higher today despite the stronger dollar index. Feb gold brushed a session low of $1216.90 per ounce in early morning floor trade and spent the remainder of the session trading in a consolidative pattern slightly above the $1220 per ounce level. It eventually settled at $1225.40 per ounce, booking a gain of 1.9%. Mar silver chopped around near the $20.10 per ounce level. It settled 3.9% higher at $20.13 per ounce.

3:30 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] Feb crude oil extended losses for a third consecutive session as a stronger dollar index and reports that Libyan protesters have agreed to reopen a key oil field weighed on prices. The energy component trended lower after pulling back from its session high of $97.66 per barrel set at pit trade open. It fell below the $96 per barrel level and settled with a 3.0% loss at $95.49 per barrel.

Feb natural gas chopped around in positive territory today. It dipped to a session low of $4.27 per MMBtu in early afternoon pit action but quickly regained momentum. It settled with a 2.1% gain at $4.32 per MMBtu, just below its session high of $4.33 per MMBtu.

Precious metals traded higher today despite the stronger dollar index. Feb gold brushed a session low of $1216.90 per ounce in early morning floor trade and spent the remainder of the session trading in a consolidative pattern slightly above the $1220 per ounce level. It eventually settled at $1225.40 per ounce, booking a gain of 1.9%. Mar silver chopped around near the $20.10 per ounce level. It settled 3.9% higher at $20.13 per ounce.

3:00 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 trades lower by 1.0% with one hour remaining in today's session. Barring a big reversal during the final hour of action, equity indices will end the first session of 2014 near their lows.

The energy sector (-1.5%) has paced the decline since the open and it remains at the bottom of the leaderboard into today's final hour. On a related note, crude oil tumbled 3.0% to $95.49.

Meanwhile, the other commodity-related group, materials (-0.7%), continues to outperform. Miners are showing notable strength as the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX 21.98, +0.85) trades up 4.0%. The industry group has received a boost from gold futures, which ended the pit session with a 1.9% gain at $1225.40/ozt.

2:30 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] Not much has changed since our last update as equity indices remain on their lows. The S&P 500 attempted to climb off its lows during the past 30 minutes, but the slight uptick was met with renewed selling pressure.

Energy (-1.5%), industrials (--1.4%), and technology (-1.2%) lagged from the opening bell, and the three groups continue to weigh on the broader market. Meanwhile, today's top performing sector, telecom services, trades lower by 0.5%.

Interestingly, the recent slide to lows did not cause much movement in the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX 14.40, +0.68), which continues to hover near its afternoon high.

1:55 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] Equity indices remain pinned to their lows as it appears dip-buyers are still away celebrating the start of the New Year. The S&P 500 trades lower by 0.9% as all ten sectors remain in the red.

Despite the broad-based weakness, heavily-weighted financial (-0.6%) and health care (-0.5%) sectors have been able to outperform the broader market.

Notably, the financial sector owes its outperformance to Bank of America (BAC 16.15, +0.58), which trades higher by 3.7% after Citigroup upgraded the stock to 'Buy' from 'Neutral.' Most other financials trade lower, but JPMorgan Chase (JPM 58.25, +0.15) displays a modest gain of 0.3%.

1:30 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The first trading day of 2013 produced a 2.5% gain for the S&P 500. Today the S&P 500 is struggling to avoid a 1.0% decline.

After the stock party that was 2013, there appears to be a bit of a trading hangover to start 2014. The weakness began overnight in Asian and European equity markets and it simply stuck, like the snow on the ground in the Upper Midwest and the Northeast, when the opening bell rang on Wall Street.

The lack of buying interest on the first day undoubtedly took some participants by surprise given the market's inclination to show a positive bias in the first few trading days of a year as new money gets put to work. We might still see that happen, but for the time being some pent-up profit-taking interest has been unleashed to drive the major averages lower in noticeable fashion.

Thus far, small-cap and mid-cap stocks have borne the brunt of the selling interest as evidenced by the 1.3% declines in the Russell 2000 and the S&P Midcap 400 Index, both of which outperformed the S&P 500 in 2013.

12:55 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] At midday, the major averages hover near their lows with the S&P 500 down 0.9%. The cautious sentiment has been present since the opening bell as losses across European indices contributed to early weakness in the U.S.

The slide has presumably caught a number of participants off guard given the understanding that the first few days of a new year are known to have a favorable bias with inflows into IRA accounts, bonus money being put to work, and new money coming off the sidelines. That has not happened today as it has been pretty much trend-down since the opening bell.

The largest S&P 500 sector, technology (-1.1%), has had to contend with weakness in its top component. Apple (AAPL 553.75, -7.27) trades lower by 1.3% after Wells Fargo downgraded the stock to 'Market Perform' from 'Outperform.' Chipmakers have not done much to offset Apple's losses as the PHLX Semiconductor Index trades lower by 1.4%.

Outside of technology, two other cyclical sectors-energy (-1.4%) and industrials (-1.2%)-trade with losses larger than 1.0%. The energy sector lags as crude oil trades down 2.0% at $96.03/bbl.

Elsewhere, the industrial space has been pressured by defense contractors and transports. The PHLX Defense Index is lower by 1.2% while last year's standout, The Dow Jones Transportation Average, displays a loss of 1.5%.

Interestingly, despite notable weakness in three cyclical groups, top-weighted consumer discretionary (-0.7%), financials (-0.7%) and health care (-0.6%) continue to trade ahead of the broader market.

Thanks to the first-half losses, the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX 14.36, +0.64) is on track to register its fourth consecutive advance.

Treasuries hover near their best levels of the session. The 10-yr yield is at 2.99% after trading near 3.04% at the start of the trading day.

12:30 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] Equities remain on the defensive with the S&P 500 trading lower by 0.9%. Overall, the first-half decline has been very orderly with energy (-1.3%), industrials (-1.2%), and technology (-1.1%) leading the profit-taking charge. Interestingly, outside of technology, top-weighted sectors have held up better than the broader market.

To that point, health care (-0.5%), financials (-0.6%), and consumer discretionary (-0.7%) all trade ahead of the broader market.

Also of note, Treasuries have continued their quiet rally off the overnight lows. The 10-yr yield has trimmed its gain to two basis points (2.99%) after hovering just below 3.04% at the start of today's session.

12:00 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] Recent action saw the reappearance of sellers who pressured the major averages to fresh lows. The S&P 500 now trades down 0.9% as three sectors-energy, industrials, and technology-display losses in excess of 1.0%.

The three cyclical groups have lagged since the opening bell, and their underperformance has masked the relative strength of several other sectors. On that note, consumer discretionary (-0.6%), financials (-0.6%), materials (-0.5%), health care (-0.5%), and consumer staples (-0.8%) all trade ahead of the broader market.

With stocks on their lows, the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX 14.36, +0.64) is on track to register its fourth consecutive advance.

11:30 am: [BRIEFING.COM] Equity indices remain near their lows as the quiet late morning continues. Although today's session saw an opening surge in volume, trading activity since then has slowed considerably.

The largest S&P 500 sector (-0.9%) remains at the bottom of the leaderboard while the top-performing group-health care-sports a more modest loss of 0.3%.

Other defensive sectors trade in mixed fashion with respect to the broader market. The telecom services space (-0.3%) outperforms; consumer staples (-0.6%) trade in-line; and utilities (-0.8%) lag.

11:00 am: [BRIEFING.COM] The major averages remain near their early lows as the S&P 500 trades down 0.6%. Individual sectors remain broadly lower with energy (-0.7%), technology (-1.0%), and industrials (-0.7%) leading to the downside.

The largest tech component, Apple (AAPL 553.51, -7.51), has widened its loss to 1.3%, which continues to weigh on the broader sector as well as the Nasdaq (-0.7%). Furthermore, chipmakers also weigh on the tech-heavy index as the PHLX Semiconductor Index trades lower by 1.4%.

Elsewhere, Treasuries have climbed to their best levels of the session, but the benchmark 10-yr yield remains higher by three basis points at 3.00%.

10:30 am: [BRIEFING.COM] Precious metals are trading higher this morning despite a stronger dollar index, while crude oil is falling deeper into negative territory.

Feb gold is holding on to overnight gains as it trades slightly below its overnight high of $1228.00. The yellow metal touched a session low of $1216.90 moments after floor trade opened and is currently up 1.7% at $1223.20.

Mar silver is also showing relative strength as prices touched a session high of $20.17 in early morning pit trade. It pulled-back slightly in recent action and is now at $20.01, or 3.3% higher.

Feb natural gas came off its session low of $4.29 and rose as high as $4.33 in recent action. It is currently trading 1.8% higher at $4.31.

Feb crude oil, on the other hand, has been slipping further into the red as reports out this morning suggest that Libyan protesters have agreed to reopen the Al Sharara field. The energy component pulled back from its session high of $97.66 and fell below the $97 level. It is now down 2.1% at $96.32.

10:00 am: [BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 trades lower by 0.5%.

November construction spending increased 1.0% month-over-month while the Briefing.com consensus expected an increase of 0.8%.

Separately, the December ISM Index fell to 57.0 from 57.3 while the Briefing.com consensus expected the reading to slip to 56.9.

9:45 am: [BRIEFING.COM] Equity indices began the session on a lower note with the Nasdaq (-0.8%) pacing the decline. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 trades lower by 0.7% as all ten sectors register losses. The energy space (-0.9%) is the weakest performer at this juncture as crude oil trades lower by 1.6% at $96.83/bbl.

Elsewhere, the technology sector (-0.9%) can also be found among the early laggards as Apple (AAPL 554.40, -6.62) weighs after Wells Fargo downgraded the stock to 'Market Perform' from 'Outperform.'

Outside of technology, the other top-weighted sectors have fared a bit better. Health care (-0.6%) and financials (-0.5%) both trade just ahead of the broader market.

The November Construction Spending report and the December ISM Index will both be released at 10:00 ET.

9:15 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -6.40. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -14.50. After ending 2013 at a fresh record closing high of 1848.36, the S&P 500 is poised to begin the first session of 2014 on a lower note. The S&P 500 futures trade six points below fair value as cautious action in Europe weighs on sentiment. Although core European indices hover near their lows, their losses have been contained to less than 1.0% so far.

In addition to the overseas weakness, index futures have had to contend with losses in the largest technology component. Apple (AAPL 555.70, -5.32) holds a pre-market loss of 1.0% after Wells Fargo downgraded the stock to 'Market Perform' from 'Outperform.'

Elsewhere, Treasuries are on their lows with the 10-yr yield up four basis points at 3.02%.

Investors will receive two economic data points shortly after the opening bell. The November Construction Spending report and the December ISM Index will both be released at 10:00 ET.

8:57 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -6.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -16.00. The S&P 500 futures remain seven points below fair value as cautious action in Europe weighs.

Asian markets ended mixed as most traders returned to work for their first day of the New Year. Notably, Thailand's SET (-5.2%) dropped to a 16-month low as political uncertainty continued fueling outflows. The SET is 25% below its May 2013 highs. In economic data of note, China's Manufacturing PMI ticked down to 51.0 from 51.4 (51.2 expected) while the HSBC Manufacturing PMI held steady at 50.5, as expected. Elsewhere, Hong Kong's retail sales increased 8.5% year-over-year (5.0% forecast, 6.3% previous).

Japan's Nikkei was closed.
Hong Kong's Hang Seng added 0.1% amid a sleepy trade. Internet gaming company Tencent Holdings led with a 2.0% gain, continuing its run into record territory. Heavy smog weighed on coal names as China Coal Energy and China Shenhua Energy lost 4.1% and 2.3%, respectively.
China's Shanghai Composite slipped 0.3%. Brokerage stocks lagged with Citic Securities sinking 1.3%.

Major European indices hover near their lows with France's CAC (-0.8%) pacing the retreat. Investors received several PMI readings from regional economies. Eurozone Manufacturing PMI held steady at 52.7, as expected. Germany's Manufacturing PMI ticked up to 54.3 from 54.2 (54.2 expected); Great Britain's Manufacturing PMI fell to 57.3 from 58.1 (58.0 forecast); and French Manufacturing PMI slipped to 47.0 from 47.1 (47.1 consensus). Elsewhere, Italy's Manufacturing PMI rose to 53.3 from 51.4 (51.8 expected) and Spain's Manufacturing PMI improved to 50.8 from 48.6 (49.9 consensus).

In news of note, Latvia has formally entered the eurozone, expanding the single currency region to 18 members.

Great Britain's FTSE trades lower by 0.1% as miners lag. Anglo American, BHP Billiton, and Rio Tinto are all down between 1.2% and 2.3%. On the upside, financials Ashtead Group and Prudential trade higher by 2.4% and 1.2%, respectively.
Germany's DAX is lower by 0.5% as producers of basic materials lead to the downside. K+S trades down 3.1% and ThyssenKrupp sports a loss of 1.8%.
In France, the CAC displays a loss of 0.8% with growth-sensitive names underperforming. Alstom and Technip are down close to 1.8% apiece. Advertiser Publicis Groupe outperforms with a gain of 1.5%.

8:32 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -4.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -13.00. The S&P 500 futures trade five points below fair value.

The latest weekly initial jobless claims count totaled 339,000, which was higher than the 333,000 that had been expected by the Briefing.com consensus. Today's tally was below the revised prior week count of 341,000 (from 338,000). As for continuing claims, they fell to 2.833 million from 2.931 million.

8:00 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -7.10. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -15.30. U.S. equity futures display modest losses amid cautious overseas action. The S&P 500 futures hover seven points below fair value.

Reviewing overnight developments:

Asian markets ended on a mixed note. Hong Kong's Hang Seng +0.1%, China's Shanghai Composite -0.3%, and Japan's Nikkei was closed.
In economic data:
China's Manufacturing PMI ticked down to 51.0 from 51.4 (51.2 expected) while the HSBC Manufacturing PMI held steady at 50.5, as expected.
Hong Kong's retail sales increased 8.5% year-over-year (5.0% forecast, 6.3% previous).
Singapore's GDP rose 4.4% year-over-year (4.7% expected, 5.8% prior).
Indonesian inflation came in at 8.38% year-over-year (8.31% forecast, 8.37% last) while the trade surplus expanded to $777 million from $24 million. ($75 million expected).
Among news of note:
During his New Year address, Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said he plans to revise the country's constitutional limitations regarding military use by 2020.

Major European indices hover near their lows. Great Britain's FTSE -0.3%, Germany's DAX -0.5%, and France's CAC -0.9%. Elsewhere, Italy's MIB +0.3% and Spain's IBEX -0.8%.
Investors received several economic data points:
Eurozone Manufacturing PMI held steady at 52.7, as expected.
Germany's Manufacturing PMI ticked up to 54.3 from 54.2 (54.2 expected).
Great Britain's Manufacturing PMI fell to 57.3 from 58.1 (58.0 forecast).
French Manufacturing PMI slipped to 47.0 from 47.1 (47.1 consensus).
Italy's Manufacturing PMI rose to 53.3 from 51.4 (51.8 expected).
Spain's Manufacturing PMI improved to 50.8 from 48.6 (49.9 consensus).
In news:
Latvia has formally entered the eurozone, expanding the single currency region to 18 members.

In U.S. corporate news:

Apple (AAPL 556.25, -4.77): -0.9% after Wells Fargo downgraded the stock to 'Market Perform' from 'Outperform.'
Bank of America (BAC 15.70, +0.13): +0.8% after Citigroup upgraded the stock to 'Buy' from 'Neutral.'

Weekly initial claims will be released at 8:30 ET while November construction spending and the December ISM Index will both cross the wires at 10:00 ET.

6:20 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -6.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -16.00.

6:20 am: [BRIEFING.COM] Nikkei...Holiday......... Hang Seng...23340.05...+33.70...+0.10%.

6:20 am: [BRIEFING.COM] FTSE...6718.82...-30.20...-0.50%. DAX...9500.07...-51.80...-0.50%.

S&P 500 Falls to Start Year Lower for 1st Time Since 2008

U.S. stocks declined, with the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index starting the year lower for the first time since 2008, after benchmark indexes posted the biggest annual rallies in more than 15 years.

Apple Inc. (AAPL) fell 1.4 percent after Wells Fargo & Co. cut its rating on the stock, sending technology shares lower by 1.1 percent as a group. Analog Devices Inc. lost 3.2 percent after Goldman Sachs Group Inc. advised investors to sell the shares. Newmont Mining Corp. added 4 percent as gold futures rose the most in three weeks in New York.

The S&P 500 slid 0.9 percent to 1,831.98 at 4 p.m. in New York for the biggest decline in three weeks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDU) decreased 135.31 points, or 0.8 percent, to 16,441.35. About 6 billion shares changed hands on U.S. exchanges, in line with the three-month average.

“More people seem to be wary, as we are, of potential corrections as markets get overexcited,” Oliver Wallin, who helps oversee $5.6 billion as investment director at Octopus Investments Ltd. in London, said by phone. “The question is just when to time it. A lot of people are willing to continue in this rally but are nervous at the same time. We’ve got one eye on the exit but we know there is money to be made in the short term.”

The S&P 500 surged 30 percent in 2013, finishing the year at an all-time high for the first time since 1999. The Dow average climbed 27 percent in 2013 for its best performance since 1995.

Start Streak

Today’s decline on the S&P 500 snapped a streak of five straight gains on the first trading session of January. The index had risen an average of almost 2 percent that day since 2009, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Equity returns will slow this year, Wall Street strategists forecast. The S&P 500 will end 2014 at 1,950, according to the average of 20 estimates compiled by Bloomberg. That represents a 5.5 percent gain from the end of 2013.

Analysts are predicting 116 stocks in the index will see price declines this year, according to average year-end targets compiled by Bloomberg. That’s the greatest number of bearish forecasts for the S&P 500 in nine years, the data show.

The average company in the index is estimated to rise 4.8 percent this year, according to the data. That’s the least optimistic forecast since Dec. 31, 2004, when the average was 4.7 percent. Alcoa Inc. and Harris Corp. are among the companies projected to fall the most this year.

Earnings Forecast

“I don’t think this sell-off will be a trend,” Walter Todd, who oversees about $950 million as chief investment officer of Greenwood Capital Associates LLC in Greenwood, South Carolina, said in a telephone interview. “In fact, I would expect the market to trade up into earnings season and January. Once people start getting a read on the fundamentals for companies and outlooks, that will dictate how the market goes from there.”

Analysts estimate earnings for S&P 500 companies in the fourth quarter grew by 5.2 percent, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Alcoa will unofficially begin the reporting season when it discloses results after the markets close on Jan. 9.

Three rounds of Federal Reserve stimulus and better-than-forecast corporate earnings have helped the S&P rally as much as 173 percent from a 12-year low in 2009. The Fed announced plans in December to reduce the pace of bond buying amid faster-than-estimated economic growth.

Data today indicated applications for U.S. unemployment benefits declined last week to the lowest level in a month. Jobless claims fell by 2,000 to 339,000 in the period ended Dec. 28, Labor Department data showed. The median forecast of 26 economists surveyed by Bloomberg called for 344,000 claims.

Factory Data

A separate report showed the Institute for Supply Management’s factory index fell to 57 in December from the prior month’s 57.3, which was the highest since April 2011. Readings above 50 indicate expansion.

Reports from Europe today confirmed factory output in the euro area expanded last month at the fastest pace since May 2011 as Italy’s manufacturing beat estimates and Germany production grew for a sixth month. Data yesterday showed China’s official Purchasing Managers’ Index slipped to a four-month low in December, while a private report today also signaled manufacturing grew at a slower pace.

American consumers in 2013 were more upbeat than at any time in the previous six years as views on the economy, finances and the buying climate improved. The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index averaged minus 31.4 for 2013, the highest since 2007, when it was minus 10.5.

Volatility Gauge

The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, the gauge of S&P 500 (SPX) options known as the VIX, rose 3.7 percent to 14.23 today for a fourth straight day of increases. The gauge finished 2013 with a 24 percent drop, the largest decline since 2009.

All 10 main S&P 500 groups retreated at least 0.5 percent today, with utility and energy shares dropping at least 1.3 percent for the biggest declines. Exxon Mobil Corp. slid 1.4 percent to $99.75.

Apple sank 1.4 percent to $553.13, leading an index of technology-hardware stocks to a 1.4 percent decline. Wells Fargo analyst Maynard Um cut the rating on the stock to market perform from outperform, saying the iPhone maker’s gross margin could come under pressure later in the year.

Analog Devices fell 3.2 percent to $49.28. Goldman Sachs analyst James Covello cut the circuit maker from sell from neutral and lowered the stock’s price target to $41 a share. Wells Fargo analyst David Wong also downgraded the stock, to market perform from outperform, citing lower semiconductor demand through the end of last year.

Range Resources Corp. dropped 3.1 percent, the most since October, to $81.74 after the company said in a filing that Chief Executive Officer John Pinkerton retired on Dec. 31.

Gold Rally

Newmont Mining increased 4 percent to $23.96. Gold for February delivery settled 1.9 percent higher in New York after the metal posted its largest annual decline in three decades. Newmont fell 50 percent last year for the biggest decline in the S&P 500.

Urban Outfitters Inc. jumped 1.8 percent to $37.78. Jefferies Group LLC analyst Randal Konik upgraded the clothing retailer to buy from hold. Urban Outfitters dropped 5.7 percent last year, making it the only consumer discretionary stock in the S&P 500 to decline.

American Eagle Outfitters Inc. rose 2.3 percent to $14.73 after Konik raised his rating to buy from hold.

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney, Reuters and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader Image@ http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader

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