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 Post subject: December 30th Monday Trade Results - Profit $1360.00
PostPosted: Mon Dec 30, 2013 11:29 pm 
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Joined: Sat Jan 10, 2009 2:06 pm
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Location: Canada
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Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
Phone: +1 708 572-4885
Free Chat Room: http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=164
Business Hours: 8am - 5pm est (Mon - Fri)
questions@thestrategylab.com (24/7)
http://twitter.com/wrbtrader (24/7)

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click on the above image to view today's performance verification

Price Action Trade Performance for Today: Emini TF ($TF_F) futures @ ($100.00) dollars or -1.00 points, Emini ES ($ES_F) futures @ $1,250.00 dollars or +25.00 points, Light Crude Oil CL ($CL_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.00 points, Gold GC ($GC_F) futures @ $210.00 dollars or +2.10 points and EuroFX 6E ($6E_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.0000 ticks. Total Profit @ $1,360.00 dollars.

Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures: 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures: 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup
Light Crude Oil CL (WTI) Futures: 1 tick or 0.01 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup
Gold GC Futures: 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup
EuroFX 6E Futures: 1 tick or 0.0001 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup

In addition, all of my trades were posted real-time in the chat room. You can read today's chat room logs for details about each one of my trades via price action trading from entry to exit (e.g. time, price, contract size) along with price action commentary as the trade traversed to its completion...all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=124&t=1684

Also, posted below are direct links to information about my price action trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis). I'm primarily a day trader because it suits my personal lifestyle but I do occasionally swing trade and position trade. Simply, my trade method is applicable for position trading, swing trading and day trading.

Image ##TheStrategyLab Chat Room is free. Members and I use the chat room to post WRB Analysis commentary, real-time trades and to post anything else related to trading. The chat room helps me tremendously in my own trading because I use it to document (journal) my thought process from trade to trade so that I can easily review at a later date my thoughts as I interacted with the markets...info I can not get from my broker statements. Also, this is not a signal calling chat room where a head trader tells you when to buy or sell. If you join the chat room and then you do not ask any questions about WRB Analysis in your own trading...the chat room will not be useful to you. Chat room access instructions @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=164

Image Price Action Analysis via WRB Analysis Tutorials @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=119&t=718

Image Trade Signal Strategies via Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our price action trade strategies with support (answering your questions) prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Image Trading Plan Daily Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=226&t=2114

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Market Context Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, CNNMoney, Reuters and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED/ECB/BOE/IMF actions or any important global economic events (e.g. Eurozone, MarketWatch.com) that had an impact on today's price action in many trading instruments I monitor during the trading day. Simply, I'm a strong believer that key market events causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility resulting in trade opportunities (swing points and strong continuation price actions) that reach profit targets. Thus, I pay attention to these key market events, intermarket analysis (e.g. Forex EurUsd, EuroFX 6E futures, Gold GC futures, Light Crude Oil (WTI) CL & Brent Oil futures, Eurex DAX futures, Euronext FTSE100 futures, Emini ES futures, Emini TF futures, Treasury ZB futures and U.S. Dollar Index futures) while using WRB Analysis from one trade to the next trade to give me the market context for price action trading before the appearance of my technical analysis trade signals. Therefore, I maintain these archives to allow me to understand what was happening on any given trading day in the past involving key market events to help better understand my trade decisions (day trading, swing trading, position trading)...something I can not get from my broker statements alone.

Dow Posts 51st Closing Record Of 2013

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click on the above image to view today's price action of key markets

NEW YORK (CNNMoney)
It was a quiet day on Wall Street, but the Dow still managed to notch another record.

The Dow Jones industrial average on Monday posted its 51st closing high of this year. The S&P 500 edged lower, but is still near record highs. The Nasdaq also ended modestly lower.

Trading volumes are expected to be anemic this week as many investors and traders take time off work. U.S. markets will be closed Wednesday for New Year's Day.

"The markets in the week ahead are expected to be subdued given the holiday-shortened trading across the globe and a lack of substantive economic releases scheduled," said Bill Stone, chief investment strategist at PNC Wealth Management.

Stocks ended little changed Friday, but they're capping off a stellar year.

All three indexes have risen more than 25% in 2013. The Dow is on track for its biggest annual gain since 1996, and the S&P 500 is on pace for its strongest year since 1997.

Crocs (CROX) shares surged 21% after private equity firm Blackstone Group (BX) agreed to invest about $200 million in the company. The footwear maker also announced a $350 million stock buyback and said CEO John McCarvel was retiring.

One trader was kicking himself for missing the move in Crocs shares. "Pretty disgusted w/ myself for not getting long $CROX this morning. bid was a few cents too low..." said StockTwits user sspencer_smb.

Cooper Tire & Rubber (CTB)canceled plans to be bought by India-based Apollo Tyres for $2.5 billion. The companies announced the deal in June, but Cooper said Apollo breached the agreement and that its financing fell through.

Cooper shares rose 5% on the news, but at least one trader was still cautious.

"$CTB agreement with apollo, short term bullish but could sell off later," said StockTrend.

Shares of Twitter (TWTR) sank 6%, extending Friday's sharp losses. The selling comes after a strong rally over the past few weeks. Twitter shares have gained 130% since the company's November IPO.

Some traders welcomed the selling, saying Twitter shares had run up too far too fast.

"$TWTR Majority 58% of market today is saying ;- BRING THIS DOWN. IT IS TOO EXPENSIVE," said TradeYodha.

Shares of Alcoa (AA, Fortune 500) fell amid reports that Ford (F, Fortune 500) will reveal in January that it will use military grade aluminum in its best-selling F-150 pickups.

On the international front, European markets ended modestly lower. A controversial "millionaire tax" is set to become law in France, where the government will levy a 75% tax on companies that pay salaries in excess of €1 million.

Japan's Nikkei closed the year on a high note, rising 0.7%. Tokyo stocks have soared as Prime Minister Shinzo Abe unleashed a massive monetary and fiscal stimulus program.

The Nikkei surged 57% over the past 12 months, the biggest annual gain since 1972, said Emily Nicol, an analyst at Daiwa Capital Markets. The gains make Japan one of the top performing global markets. Japanese stocks have been supported by a weak yen, which has helped Japanese exporters. The yen fell through ¥105 versus the dollar for the first time since 2008.

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4:10 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 ended flat after spending the entire session inside of a four-point range. The quiet trading day did little to upset the S&P 500's return for the year as the index will enter tomorrow with a 29.1% year-to-date gain.

Interestingly, while the S&P 500 was challenged by its flat line throughout the session, the Dow Jones Industrial Average held just above its unchanged level for the duration of the day. The price-weighted Dow saw 19 of its 30 components finish in the green, but shares of Disney (DIS 76.23, +1.88) stood out with a 2.5% gain. The noteworthy strength ensued after Guggenheim upgraded the stock to 'Buy' from 'Neutral.'

Fittingly, Disney also provided a measure of support to the discretionary sector (+0.4%), which ended ahead of the remaining nine groups. Retailers and homebuilders factored into the sector's strength as the SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT 88.01, +0.44) and iShares Dow Jones US Home Construction ETF (ITB 24.68, +0.07) added 0.5% and 0.3%, respectively.

The discretionary sector was the only area of strength among cyclical groups. The materials sector (+0.04%) eked out a slight gain, but had a limited impact on the broader market due to its small size. Meanwhile, the two top-weighted sectors-financials (-0.1%) and technology (-0.1%)-posted modest losses.

Another growth-sensitive sector, energy (-0.8%), spent the entire day at the bottom of the leaderboard while crude oil fell 1.1% to $99.20 per barrel.

Countercyclical groups fared a bit better as consumer staples (+0.3%), health care (+0.2%), telecom services (+0.04%), and utilities (+0.3%) all posted modest gains.

On a stock-specific note, Twitter (TWTR 60.51, -3.24) endured another rough session after falling 13.0% on Friday. Shares of the social media company slid 5.1%, which narrowed its December gain to 45.6%.

Even though the major averages ended little changed, volatility protection was in demand as the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX 13.53, +1.07) posted its second consecutive gain.

Trading volume was well below average as only 452 million shares changed hands on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange.

The bond market proved to be a one-way street today as Treasuries rallied throughout the session. The 10-yr yield slipped three basis points to 2.97%.

Today's economic data was limited to November Pending Home Sales, which ticked up 0.2% while the Briefing.com consensus expected an increase of 1.5%.

Tomorrow, the October Case-Shiller 20-city Index will be released at 9:00 ET, December Chicago PMI will be reported at 9:45 ET, and the December Consumer Confidence report will cross the wires at 10:00 ET.

Nasdaq +37.6% YTD
Russell 2000 +36.6% YTD
S&P 500 +29.1% YTD
DJIA +26.0% YTD

3:35 pm: [BRIEFING.COM]

Commodities ended today mostly lower
Energy and metals commodities felt today, except for natural gas and aluminum futures, while agriculture futures were mixed
Crude oil futures ended the day below $100/barrel, while natural gas posted gains on colder weather
At the end of pit trading, Feb crude oil shed $1.03/barrel to $99.28/barrel. Feb nat gas rose 7 cents to $4.43/MMBtu
Gold and silver both ended the day lower and extended those losses in electronic trade.
Gold fell below $1200/oz in electronic trade. Feb gold finished pit trading $10.60 lower at $1203.70/oz, Mar silver lost $0.43 to $19.63/oz

2:55 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 sits right at its flat line with one hour remaining in today's session. Although the benchmark index spent the bulk of the trading day near its lows, recent inflows into defensive sectors have nudged the broader market off its lows.

Elsewhere, the technology sector has also regained its flat line, but its largest component, Apple (AAPL 555.61, -4.48), remains in the red. Meanwhile, chipmakers have built on their earlier gains. The PHLX Semiconductor Index is higher by 0.4%.

Interestingly, despite the recent rebound, the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX 13.45, +0.99) holds a solid gain, which puts in on track for a second consecutive advance after notching a multi-month low last Thursday.

2:30 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] Recent action saw the major averages continue their range-bound drift. Despite the lack of noteworthy change among the indices, countercyclical sectors have climbed out of the red.

The utilities space (+0.2%) trades ahead of the remaining countercyclical groups while consumer staples (+0.1%), health care (+0.1%), and telecom services (+0.1%) follow not far behind. Interestingly, today's top defensive sector-utilities-represents the weakest group of the quarter. Including today's modest advance, the sector is up just 1.5% this quarter versus a 9.4% gain for the S&P 500.

Rising rates have been a recurring theme throughout the fourth quarter, which has posed a headwind to the high-yielding sector. The 10-yr yield trades near 2.97% after starting the quarter at 2.62%.

2:00 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 hovers near its session low as the quiet afternoon continues.

The discretionary sector (+0.3%) remains atop the leaderboard, but other groups have not done much to distinguish themselves. The second-best performing sector, materials, trades higher by 0.1%.

Interestingly, the materials sector has been able to overcome the underperformance of miners. The Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX 21.07, -0.18) is lower by 0.9% while gold futures trade down 0.9% at $1203.70 per troy ounce. Steelmakers, however, have shown some strength with the Market Vectors Steel ETF (SLX 49.76, +0.05) trading higher by 0.1%.

1:30 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] Thus far, the stock market is providing a good case for the NYSE to consider closing the market early each session between Christmas and New Year's. Volume is thin once again and the S&P 500 has been confined to a two-point trading range for the last three hours, demonstrating that a lot of participants are content to sit things out this time of year.

The for-profit NYSE of course is fully expected to keep things just the way they are, so what goes around should indeed come around again in 2014.

The only thing coming around today really is the Treasury market. It has attracted a steady bid since the wee hours of the morning and is pressing its best levels of the day at this juncture. The 10-yr note is up nine ticks, pushing its yield down to 2.97% from the closely-watched 3.00% line.

The consumer discretionary sector (+0.3%) is the big gainer so far in the stock market.

12:55 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The first half of today's session has not produced much change as the S&P 500 hovers just two points below its flat line. With tomorrow's session marking the end of the year, the benchmark index entered the day hoping to maintain its 29.1% year-to-date gain.

To no one's surprise, today's participation has been lacking, and with one half of the session in the rear-view mirror, only 195 million shares have changed hands on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange.

Unlike the S&P 500, the price-weighted Dow Jones Industrial Average has been able to stay out of the red by the slimmest of margins. Shares of Disney (DIS 76.11, +1.76) have done their part in contributing to the outperformance after Guggenheim upgraded the stock to 'Buy' from 'Neutral.' The largest Dow component, Visa (V 220.42, +0.75), trades higher by 0.3%, which has also factored into the relative strength of the Dow.

Fittingly, the relative strength of Disney has translated into outperformance for the broader discretionary sector, which leads with a gain of 0.2%. Another discretionary component, Cooper Tire (CTB 23.98, +1.02), has been in the headlines today after terminating its merger agreement with Apollo Tyres.

Outside of consumer discretionary, no other group displays a gain larger than 0.1%. On the downside, the two top-weighted S&P 500 sectors-financials (-0.2%) and technology (-0.2%)-display modest losses while energy (-0.7%) trails the remaining nine sectors. On a related note, crude oil trades lower by 1.0% at $99.35 per barrel.

Treasuries hover near their highs with the benchmark 10-yr yield off three basis points at 2.98%.

Today's economic data was limited to November Pending Home Sales, which ticked up 0.2% while the Briefing.com consensus expected an increase of 1.5%.

12:30 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 hovers one point below its flat line as the quiet session continues. Individual sectors are divided right down the middle as five groups-consumer staples, consumer discretionary, health care, utilities, and materials-display modest gains while the other five-energy, financials, industrials, technology, and telecom services-hover in the red.

Of the five decliners, the energy sector (-0.7%) is the weakest performer as crude oil trades lower by 1.1% at $99.25 per barrel.

12:00 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The major averages continue to drift inside narrow ranges with the Dow Jones Industrial Average hovering just above its flat line. The price-weighted Dow has been able to stay out of the red even as 17 of its 30 components register losses.

On the upside, shares of Disney (DIS 76.29, +1.94) have contributed to the relative strength of the index. Disney trades higher by 2.4% after Guggenheim upgraded the stock to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' with an $87 price target. Furthermore, the top-weighted Dow member, Visa (V 220.52, +0.85), has also factored into the Dow's outperformance.

Elsewhere, Treasuries hover near their highs with the 10-yr yield off three basis points at 2.97%.

11:25 am: [BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 has inched its way back to the flat line after spending the past hour just below that level. Through 90 minutes of the session, the benchmark index has held inside of a four-point range while morning volume has been light. To that point, only 135 million shares have changed hands on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange so far.

With regard to market breadth, there are currently 1.1 declining issues at the NYSE for each advancer. Things are a bit more balanced on the Nasdaq where the ratio is closer to 1:1.

10:55 am: [BRIEFING.COM] Not much has changed since our opening update as the major averages continue to trade in mixed fashion with the Nasdaq (-0.2%) trailing its peers.

The tech-heavy index has to contend with the underperformance of its top component. Apple (AAPL 553.77, -6.32) trades lower by 1.1% after issuing a Friday evening statement urging its shareholders to vote against Carl Icahn's buyback plan.

Meanwhile, the broader technology sector (-0.2%) is essentially trading in-line with the broader market. Chipmakers, however, have shown some relative strength as the PHLX Semiconductor Index trades higher by 0.3%.

10:30 am: [BRIEFING.COM]

Despite a rather steady decline in the dollar index in today's trading session, most commodities are lower, including most energy, metal and agriculture commodities
Colder weather is giving natural gas futures a boost this morning, but West Texas Intermediate crude oil, Brent crude oil, RBOB gasoline and heating oil futures are all in the red.
Natural gas futures are now +1.7% at $4.41/MMBtu, WTI crude is -0.5% at $99.81/barrel, Brent crude oil is -0.8% at $111.28/barrel.
In metals, gold, silver, copper, platinum are all trading lower this morning, while palladium futures are showing gains
Also, overnight on the London Metals Exchange, aluminum futures rose 0.8%
Currently, gold is -0.7% at $1205.70/oz, silver is -1.7% at $19.72/oz, copper is flat at $3.38/lb

10:00 am: [BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (-0.1%) sits near its session low.

Pending home sales for November ticked up 0.2%, which was worse than the 1.5% increase forecast by the Briefing.com consensus. Today's reading followed last month's revised decrease of -1.2% (from -0.6%).

9:40 am: [BRIEFING.COM] The major averages began the session on a mixed note. The Nasdaq (-0.2%) hovers right below its flat line while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (+0.1%) trades with a modest gain.

Six of ten sectors trade in positive territory with utilities (+0.3%) in the lead. On the downside, the technology sector (-0.3%) is the weakest performer so far. The largest tech component, Apple (AAPL 555.52, -4.49), weighs, trading lower by 0.8% after the company urged its shareholders to vote against the buyback proposal presented by Carl Icahn.

Also of note, shares of Twitter (TWTR 58.69, -5.06) are seeing an extension of Friday's weakness. The social media stock trades lower by 7.8% after falling 13.0% on Friday. Despite the weakness, Twitter continues to hold a December gain of 41.2%

9:10 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +0.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -5.30. Equity indices are not expected to display much change at the start of today's session as the S&P 500 futures hover less than one point above fair value. Similar to last week, trading volume is expected to be on the light side given the fact many participants have already packed it in for the year. That is not too surprising since the S&P 500 enters today's session with a 2013 gain of 29.1%.

From an individual sector standpoint, consumer discretionary has had the best year so far, climbing 39.9%. Health care has followed closely and has a 38.6% year-to-date gain to show for.

There hasn't been much in the way of news this morning and today's economic data will be limited to the November Pending Home Sales report, which will be released at 10:00 ET. The Briefing.com consensus expects the reading to point to a 1.5% increase.

Treasuries hold modest gains with the 10-yr yield off two basis points at 2.99%.

8:56 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +1.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -2.30. The S&P 500 futures hover one point above fair value.

Asian markets ended the quiet holiday session on a mixed note. Japan's Nikkei (+0.7%) posted a modest increase, extending its 2013 gain to 57%. Elsewhere, China's Shanghai Composite ended with a slim loss (-0.2%).

Economic data was limited as South Korea's industrial production fell 1.3% year-over-year (-0.2% expected, 3.3% prior); retail sales increased 0.9% month-over-month (0.3% forecast, 1.3% prior); and Hong Kong's trade deficit widened to HKD44.60 billion from HKD38.50 billion (HKD42.30 billion forecast).

Japan's Nikkei rose 0.7%, gaining for a ninth straight session. Exporters continued to climb, thanks to the weaker yen, with Honda Motor adding 0.7% and Komatsu ending higher by 0.8%.
Hong Kong's Hang Seng finished flat amid a sleepy session. Internet gaming company Tencent Holdings continued it ascent into record territory, tacking on another 2.6%. Meanwhile, mainland financials lagged as Bank of Communications and China Construction Bank gave up 1.3% and 1.0%, respectively.
China's Shanghai Composite slipped 0.2%, ending just off four-month lows. Poly Real Estate shed 1.6% to lead real estate developers lower.

Major European indices hold modest losses as the quiet session continues. In an interview with Germany's Der Spiegel, European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said he does not see signs of deflation and that there is no urgent need for additional cuts to the key interest rate.

Investors received a handful of economic data points. Eurozone retail PMI ticked down to 47.7 from 48.0; Great Britain's housing equity withdrawals came in at -GBP10.40 billion quarter-over-quarter (-GBP7.20 billion expected, -GBP12.50 billion prior); and Italy's PPI ticked down 0.1% month-over-month (-0.8% last) while the year-over-year reading fell 1.8%, as expected (-2.0% last). Separately, Business Confidence ticked up to 98.2 from 98.0 (98.9 expected).

France's CAC is lower by 0.2% as industrials lag. Cie de St-Gobain and Renault are both down near 0.7%. Financials are showing strength as Credit Agricole and Societe Generale trade higher by 1.2% and 0.5%, respectively.
Germany's DAX trades down 0.4% as drug maker Bayer leads to the downside with a loss of 1.2%. Producers of basic materials outperform with HeidelbergCement, ThyssenKrupp, and K+S up between 1.5% and 2.3%.
Great Britain's FTSE is lower by 0.4% with consumer names lagging. J Sainsbury displays a loss of 2.0% and Tesco trades down 1.4%. Miners Anglo American and Rio Tinto outperform with respective gains of 1.3% and 0.8%.

8:30 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +0.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -2.50. The S&P 500 futures continue to hover just above fair value as today's session sets up for a quiet start. With just two trading days left in 2013, the benchmark index will look to maintain its 2013 gain of 29.1% through the final two sessions.

Although U.S. markets will be open tomorrow, some indices have already put a bow on a banner 2013. To that end, Japan's Nikkei added 0.7% to extend its 2013 gain to 57%. This marks the highest annual return for the index since 1972.

Today's economic data will be limited to the Pending Home Sales report, which will be released at 10:00 ET.

8:01 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +1.70. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +0.20. U.S. equity futures display modest pre-market gains with the S&P 500 futures trading less than two points above fair value.

Reviewing overnight developments:

Asian markets ended on a mixed note. China's Shanghai Composite -0.2%, Japan's Nikkei +0.7%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng ended flat.
In regional economic data:
South Korea's industrial production fell 1.3% year-over-year (-0.2% expected, 3.3% prior) while retail sales increased 0.9% month-over-month (0.3% forecast, 1.3% prior).
Hong Kong's trade deficit widened to HKD44.60 billion from HKD38.50 billion (HKD42.30 billion forecast).
In news:
China's National Development and Reform Commission said the country needs to closely monitor the impact from a weakening yen. The comments come after Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe appeared at the controversial Yasukuni Shrine last week in a visit that was promptly condemned by China and South Korea.

Major European indices are little changed. France's CAC -0.1%, Germany's DAX -0.2%, and Great Britain's FTSE -0.3%.
Investors received a handful of economic data points:
Eurozone retail PMI ticked down to 47.7 from 48.0.
Great Britain's housing equity withdrawals came in at -GBP10.40 billion quarter-over-quarter (-GBP7.20 billion expected, -GBP12.50 billion prior).
Italy's PPI ticked down 0.1% month-over-month (-0.8% last) while the year-over-year reading fell 1.8%, as expected (-2.0% last). Separately, Business Confidence ticked up to 98.2 from 98.0 (98.9 expected).
Among news of note:
In an interview with Germany's Der Spiegel, European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said he does not see signs of deflation and that there is no urgent need for additional cuts to the key interest rate.

In U.S. corporate news:

Apple (AAPL 557.34, -2.75): -0.5% after the company urged its shareholders to vote against the buyback proposal presented by Carl Icahn.
Crocs (CROX 14.68, +1.35): +10.1% after the company announced an affiliate of Blackstone (BX 31.35, 0.00) agreed to purchase $200 million of newly-issued CROX stock.

The Pending Home Sales report for November will be released at 10:00 ET.

7:35 am: [BRIEFING.COM] Nikkei...16291.31...+112.40...+0.70%. Hang Seng...23244.87...+1.60...0.00.

7:35 am: [BRIEFING.COM] FTSE...6727.52...-23.40...-0.40%. DAX...9571.89...-17.50...-0.20%.

Dollar On Track For Best Year vs Yen Since 1979

(Reuters) - The dollar hovered within sight of a five-year high versus the yen on Tuesday and was on track for its biggest yearly percentage gain versus the Japanese currency in 34 years, having risen nearly 21 percent in 2013.

The dollar last fetched about 104.93 yen, down 0.2 percent on the day and inching away from Monday's five-year high of 105.41 yen, the greenback's strongest level versus the yen since October 2008.

For the year, the dollar has risen 20.9 percent against the yen, putting it on track for its biggest one-year percentage gain versus the Japanese currency since 1979, when the dollar climbed 23.7 percent against the yen, according to Thomson Reuters data.

A divergence in the outlook for monetary policies in the United States and Japan has been a key to the dollar's stellar performance versus the yen this year, and that disparity could lead to further gains for the dollar, and losses for the yen, in 2014.

The yen has also retreated on the back of improving sentiment on the global economy and rising investor risk appetite.

A brighter outlook for the global economy can lead to an increase in overseas investment by Japanese investors and weigh on the yen, which has suffered broad losses this year and fallen to multi-year troughs versus a number of currencies.

"I think we could see the dollar push higher versus the yen on the back of dollar strength," said Satoshi Okagawa, senior global markets analyst for Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation in Singapore, referring to the outlook for 2014.

Okagawa said he sees the dollar rising to 110 yen in the first half of next year.

The dollar could then dip to 95 yen in mid-2014, he said, adding that a Japanese sales tax hike in April could dent Japan's economy and Tokyo shares and trigger a rise in the yen, before re-testing the 110 yen threshold again in late 2014.

Crucial to the outlook will be whether the U.S. Federal Reserve can keep reducing its bond-buying stimulus over the course of 2014, he added.

Earlier in December, the U.S. Federal Reserve took its first step towards winding down its massive monetary stimulus, announcing that it would start reducing its monthly bond purchases in January.

By contrast, market participants expect the Bank of Japan to maintain, or even enhance, its ultra-easy monetary policy in 2014 to beat deflation.

In another sign of the yen's weakness this year, the euro has jumped a record 26.6 percent against the Japanese currency in 2013, the euro's biggest yearly rise versus the yen since the single currency was launched in 1999.

The euro last stood at 144.90 yen, down 0.1 percent from late U.S. trade, but still within the vicinity of a five-year high of 145.67 yen set last Friday.

The Swiss franc hovered near a 30-year peak against the Japanese currency and last fetched 118.27 yen. The Swiss franc had touched a high of 119.17 yen last Friday, its highest level against the yen since January 1983.

EURO'S STRENGTH

The euro was steady versus the dollar at about $1.3808, not too far from a two-year high of $1.3894 set last Friday.

The euro has risen 4.7 percent against the dollar this year, putting it on track for its best yearly gain versus the greenback since 2007.

The euro's strength this year has baffled many commentators and investors, who had expected tough economic conditions in some member states to weigh on the single currency.

But the euro has been boosted as banks in the region repatriate funds ahead of the year-end to shore up their capital bases before an ECB Asset Quality Review and as banks repay cheap crisis loans to the ECB, which results in tighter liquidity.

In addition, ECB President Mario Draghi said in an interview with German news magazine Spiegel published on Saturday that he sees no urgent need to cut the euro zone's main interest rate further and sees no signs of deflation.

Gold Bulls Retrench as Price Drops Most in 32 Years: Commodities

Hedge funds got less bullish on gold for the seventh time in eight weeks as signs of accelerating U.S. economic and tame inflation growth drive prices to the worst annual drop in more than three decades.

The net-long position in gold fell 12 percent to 28,702 futures and options in the week ended Dec. 24, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show. Short holdings gained 1.1 percent to 76,052, a three-week high. Net-bullish holdings across 18 U.S.-traded commodities climbed 4.5 percent to 768,354 contracts as copper wagers gained to a 34-month high.

Investors shunned gold in 2013, halting 12 straight years of price gains. Global equities rallied on improving growth prospects and inflation failed to accelerate, eroding demand for bullion as a preserver of wealth. Assets in exchange-traded products backed by bullion fell to the lowest since 2009 as holders including billionaires George Soros and John Paulson sold. The International Monetary Fund signaled this month the U.S. economy will expand more than forecast.

“Gold is something we avoid,” said Michael Shaoul, the chief executive officer of Marketfield Asset Management LLC, which which oversees about $17 billion. “The developed economies are growing, and equities remain very interesting, so there is really no reason to be in gold.”

Futures in New York retreated 28 percent this year to $1,203.80 an ounce, poised for the first loss since 2000 and the biggest since 1981. The Standard & Poor’s GSCI Spot Index of 24 commodities slid 1.7 percent, while the MSCI All-Country World index of equities advanced 20 percent. The Bloomberg Dollar Index, a gauge against 10 major trading partners, rose 3.4 percent. The Bloomberg Treasury Bond Index fell 3.3 percent.

Record Outflows

Investors pulled $38.6 billion from gold funds this year, the most in data going back through 2000, according to EPFR Global, a research company. Futures settled at a three-year low on Dec. 19, a day after the Federal Reserve cut the pace of its monthly bond purchases to $75 billion from $85 billion, easing concern that inflation would accelerate.

U.S. pending home sales climbed 0.2 percent in November, the first gain in six months, the National Association of Realtors said yesterday. There’s a “much stronger outlook” for U.S. growth in 2014, IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde said in an interview broadcast Dec. 22 on NBC’s “Meet the Press.”

Prices are “likely to grind lower” through 2014, Jeffrey Currie, the head of commodities research at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. in New York, said in a telephone interview Dec. 19. The metal will reach $1,050 by the end of 2014, the bank said in a Nov. 20 report. The Fed will probably cut its bond purchases in $10 billion increments over the next seven meetings before ending the program in December 2014, according to a Bloomberg survey of economists conducted on Dec. 19.

More Inflation

The improving economic growth that’s prompted investors to flock to equities may eventually bring more inflation and revive demand for bullion, according to Jim Russell, who helps oversee $113 billion as a Cincinnati-based senior equity-strategist for U.S. Bank Wealth Management.

Inflation expectations as measured by the break-even rate for five-year Treasury Inflation Protected Securities climbed 1.7 percent in December, snapping two months of declines. Policy makers may hold interest rates near zero percent even if unemployment falls below the 6.5 percent rate the central bank previously cited as a likely catalyst for an increase, the Fed said in its Dec. 18 statement.

Gold surged more than 500 percent in the 12 straight years of gains through 2012 as the dollar weakened. The rally accelerated from December 2008 to June 2011 as the Fed expanded its balance sheet through debt purchases and held borrowing costs at a record low in a bid to revive growth amid a U.S. recession. Bullion reached a record $1,923.70 in September 2011.

‘Find Support’

“While there are no immediate worries about inflation, it can’t be ruled out in the future with economic growth accelerating in some parts of the world,” said Jeff Sica, who helps oversee more than $1 billion of assets as president of Sica Wealth Management in Morristown, New Jersey. “Gold will find support at lower prices with interest rates hovering near zero.”

Holdings in the 14 biggest gold ETPs plunged 33 percent since the end of December to 1,767.1 metric tons, on pace for the first annual decrease since the funds started trading in 2003, data compiled by Bloomberg show. The removals, along with slumping prices, erased $73.8 billion in the value of the assets.

Billionaire John Paulson, the largest holder in the SPDR Gold Trust, the biggest ETP, said on Nov. 20 that he personally wouldn’t invest more money into his gold fund because it’s not clear when inflation will quicken. Soros sold his entire stake in the SPDR Gold Trust in the second quarter.

Crude Oil

Bullish bets on crude oil climbed 4.4 percent to 263,965 contracts, the highest since September, government data show. The CFTC data, regularly released on Fridays, were delayed last week because of the Christmas holiday.

U.S. crude stockpiles decreased 1.3 percent to 367.6 million barrels in the week ended Dec. 20, the lowest since September, according to the Energy Information Administration. Supplies of gasoline and distillate fuel, including diesel and heating oil, also dropped amid rising demand.

Speculators increased their net-long position in copper by 43 percent to 29,489 contracts. That’s the most bullish outlook since February 2011. While the metal has been in a bear market since April, prices in New York rallied 13 percent from this year’s low in June as stockpiles monitored by the London Metal Exchange fell to the lowest since January.

Agriculture Holdings

A measure of speculative positions across 11 agricultural products slid 1 percent to 242,647 contracts, as investors got more bearish on sugar, the CFTC data show. That was the sixth straight drop, the longest slump since October 2012.

The funds reduced their bearish outlook in corn, holding a net-short position of 87,794 contracts, compared with 104,845 a week earlier. U.S. exporters sold 1.48 million metric tons in the week ended Dec. 19, up 79 percent from a week earlier, the Department of Agriculture said Dec. 27.

The net-short holding in wheat narrowed to 69,832 contracts from 71,714 a week earlier, the CFTC data show. Commodity “outperformers” in 2014 will include aluminum, nickel, corn and wheat, analysts at DZ Bank AG in Frankfurt said in report e-mailed yesterday and dated Dec. 20.

“A closer match of supply and demand can come up in industrial metals like copper, and we could see a lift in prices,” said U.S. Bank’s Russell. “We do have representation of commodities in many of our clients’ portfolios as we are seeing signs of growth in some parts of the world.”

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney, Reuters and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
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