TheStrategyLab.com Price Action Trading Support Forum

Forum for price action traders that want to learn WRB Analysis basic tutorial chapters 1, 2 and 3 prior to purchasing our advance trade methods. Hashtags: #wrbanalysis #wrbzone #wrbhiddengap #priceaction #trading
It is currently Thu Mar 28, 2024 4:44 am

All times are UTC - 5 hours [ DST ]




Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 1 post ] 
Author Message
 Post subject: December 5th Thursday Trade Results - Profit $2625.00
PostPosted: Fri Dec 06, 2013 1:10 am 
Offline
Site Admin

Joined: Sat Jan 10, 2009 2:06 pm
Posts: 4335
Location: Canada
Image

Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
Phone: +1 708 572-4885
Free Chat Room: http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=164
Business Hours: 8am - 5pm est (Mon - Fri)
questions@thestrategylab.com (24/7)
http://twitter.com/wrbtrader (24/7)

Attachment:
120513-wrbtrader-Price-Action-Trading-PnL-Blotter-Profit+2625.00.png
120513-wrbtrader-Price-Action-Trading-PnL-Blotter-Profit+2625.00.png [ 175.43 KiB | Viewed 322 times ]

click on the above image to view today's performance verification

Price Action Trade Performance for Today: Emini TF ($TF_F) futures @ $1,500.00 dollars or +15.00 points, Emini ES ($ES_F) futures @ $1,125.00 dollars or +22.50 points, Light Crude Oil CL ($CL_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.00 points, Gold GC ($GC_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.00 points and EuroFX 6E ($6E_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.0000 ticks. Total Profit @ $2,625.00 dollars.

Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures: 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures: 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup
Light Crude Oil CL (WTI) Futures: 1 tick or 0.01 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup
Gold GC Futures: 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup
EuroFX 6E Futures: 1 tick or 0.0001 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup

In addition, all of my trades were posted real-time in the chat room. You can read today's chat room logs for details about each one of my trades via price action trading from entry to exit (e.g. time, price, contract size) along with price action commentary as the trade traversed to its completion...all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=124&t=1667

Also, posted below are direct links to information about my price action trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis). I'm primarily a day trader because it suits my personal lifestyle but I do occasionally swing trade and position trade. Simply, my trade method is applicable for position trading, swing trading and day trading.

Image Price Action Analysis via WRB Analysis Tutorials @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=119&t=718

Image Trade Signal Strategies via Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our price action trade strategies with support prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Image Trading Plan Daily Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=226&t=2114

-----------------------------

Market Context Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, CNNMoney, Reuters and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED/ECB/BOE/IMF actions or any important global economic events (e.g. Eurozone, MarketWatch.com) that had an impact on today's price action in many trading instruments I monitor during the trading day. Simply, I'm a strong believer that key market events causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility resulting in trade opportunities (swing points and strong continuation price actions) that reach profit targets. Thus, I pay attention to these key market events, intermarket analysis (e.g. Forex EurUsd, EuroFX 6E futures, Gold GC futures, Light Crude Oil (WTI) CL & Brent Oil futures, Eurex DAX futures, Euronext FTSE100 futures, Emini ES futures, Emini TF futures, Treasury ZB futures and U.S. Dollar Index futures) while using WRB Analysis from one trade to the next trade to give me the market context for price action trading before the appearance of my technical analysis trade signals. Therefore, I maintain these archives to allow me to understand what was happening on any given trading day in the past involving key market events to help better understand my trade decisions (day trading, swing trading, position trading)...something I can not get from my broker statements alone.

Market Losing Streak Hits Five Days

Attachment:
120513-Key-Price-Action-Markets.png
120513-Key-Price-Action-Markets.png [ 528.57 KiB | Viewed 299 times ]

click on the above image to view today's price action of key markets

NEW YORK (CNNMoney)
Good economic news put pressure on the stock market again as investors brace for the Federal Reserve to begin dialing down its stimulus.

The Dow Jones industrial average and the S&P 500 both ended lower for a fifth consecutive day. The Nasdaq has declined on three of the past four trading days.

The government revised its initial report on third-quarter economic growth to 3.6%, up from the previous estimate of 2.8%. The improvement was largely driven by inventory growth as companies restocked their shelves ahead of the holiday shopping season.

And the number of Americans filing first-time claims for unemployment benefits fell more than expected last week, the Labor Department said. Economists said the decline may have been distorted by the Thanksgiving holiday.

But the upbeat economic numbers failed to give the market a lift. Many investors believe that good economic news makes it more likely that the Federal Reserve will begin scaling back, or tapering, its monthly bond purchases.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 2.86% after the economic reports were released. Bond yields rise when prices fall. So bond investors are selling Treasuries in anticipation that the Fed may no longer buy as much going forward.

The Fed's $85-billion per month bond buying program has helped fuel the bull market since March 2009. But the central bank signaled earlier this year that it hopes to gradually reduce the purchases as the economy recovers. It has said that improvement in the job market could trigger this process.

The government's November jobs report is due Friday. Economists surveyed by CNNMoney expect that report to show 183,00 jobs were added last month.

* Where should you put your money now?

But not everyone is convinced the Fed will taper at its next policy meeting -- which wraps up on December 18. Alastair McCaig, market analyst for IG in London, said the holiday shopping season would be "a fragile time of year" for the Fed to pull back on its bond purchases.

"Trying to squeeze something in before the end of the year would start a little bit of panic, the tail end of December being just an incredibly important retail period," he said. "It would be a little bit dangerous to do something this year."

What's moving: On the corporate front, Apple (AAPL, Fortune 500) shares rose following a report that the company is nearing a deal with China Mobile (CHL) to sell Apple's iPhone. China Mobile is the world's largest mobile carrier.

* Video - Can Apple get back to $700?

Shares of Apple have bounced back over the past few months, rebounding more than 50% from this year's lows in April. That's something traders on StockTwits took note of Thursday.

"$AAPL is at its 52-week high...it's been a long time since we've been able to say that," said DaddyBiscuits.

Microsoft (MSFT, Fortune 500) shares tumbled on news that Ford (F, Fortune 500) CEO Alan Mullaly is not planning to leave the company anytime soon. Mulally had emerged as one of the frontrunners to replace current Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer once he officially steps down. The stock, which is up 40% this year, has gained 15% since Ballmer announced plans to retire in August.

"$MSFT 13 year highs....that Ballmer should quit every day," said howardlindzon.

* Investors brace for a big stock dip

J.C. Penney (JCP, Fortune 500) shares fell 8%, extending Wednesday's losses as investors worry about the retailer's turnaround plan. Hedge fund manager Kyle Bass also told Bloomberg that his firm has sold its stake in J.C. Penney stock.

J.C. Penney is still the worst performing stock in the S&P 500 this year, but shares rallied in the run-up to Black Friday. Some traders were not sure why the stock was getting hit hard this week considering that the company reported strong sales growth in November.

"$JCP same-store sales climbed 10% during November, while its online sales were well ahead of year-earlier levels...why is this down???" asked ValueInvestor1.

"$JCP Absolutely ridiculous! I don't care about the $$, this is the most unexcused absurd downturn I've ever seen. Just Criminal!!! BS!!!" said TechTrader17.

Shares of discount retailer Dollar General (DG, Fortune 500) rose 6% after reporting quarterly earnings that beat analysts' expectations and raising the lower end of its outlook for full-year profits.

Electronic Arts (EA) shares tumbled 6% on continuing worries about technical problems with the video game maker's "Battlefield 4" game.

Jos. A Bank (JOSB) reported a decline in quarterly net sales and net income, compared with the prior year. The clothing retailer has been in a bizarre takeover battle with Men's Wearhouse (MW), which originally rebuffed a hostile bid from Jos. A Bank before turning the tables and offering to buy its smaller rival.

European markets edged lower after the European Central Bank and the Bank of England both voted to hold interest rates steady. Asian markets ended mostly lower.

Image



4:20 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The drive for five continued today and it was a success. For the fifth straight session, the S&P 500 ended lower. Like the previous four sessions, though, the losses were fairly modest in scope. The S&P 500 declined 0.4%, bringing its total loss for the five sessions to 22 points or 1.2%. All in all, that still qualifies as a pretty tame slide considering the S&P 500 had risen 150 points, or 9.1%, over the previous eight weeks.

Today's retreat came on moderate volume of 700 mln shares at the NYSE and was blamed on concerns the Fed might taper its asset purchase program as early as this month following some better-than-expected initial claims and Q3 GDP data. The headline print for each certainly aided such thinking. Initial claims for the week ending November 30 checked in at just 298,000 (Briefing.com consensus 330,000) while the second estimate for Q3 GDP jumped to 3.6% (Briefing.com consensus 3.0%) from 2.8%.

The headlines had an undeniably encouraging feel to them. That was the first sub-300,000 print for initial claims since early September and the 3.6% growth in Q3 GDP was the strongest since the second quarter of 2010. Upon closer review, though, the headlines were a little misleading.

The Department of Labor acknowledged that seasonal adjustment problems biased the claims number lower (which means we are likely to see a higher print in subsequent weeks) while the change in private inventories accounted for 1.68 percentage points of Q3 GDP growth. Take the change in inventories out of the equation and real final sales were up just 1.9% versus 2.0% in the first estimate. Furthermore, the 1.4% growth rate in personal consumption expenditures was the lowest rate since the fourth quarter of 2009.

A big jump in inventories and a deceleration in personal spending isn't exactly a combination befitting a robust growth picture. In that context, the tapering trade in our estimation probably had more to do today with the angst surrounding the November employment report on Friday than it did with a true read of today's data.

Following the strong ADP Employment Change report on Wednesday, there is a presumption that the nonfarm payrolls number on Friday will also produce a positive surprise. The Briefing.com consensus estimate for nonfarm payrolls is set at 188,000 and at 200,000 for nonfarm private payrolls.

Some of that angst was reflected in the Treasury market today, which spent the entire session on the defensive. The 10-yr note dipped eight ticks and its yield rose three basis points to 2.87%. That bump in long-term rates weighed on rate-sensitive sectors in the stock market, like the financials sector (-0.9%), and particularly those sectors known for their higher dividend yields -- telecom services (-1.0%), utilities (-0.7%), and consumer staples (-0.9%).

Today's profit-taking action was centered primarily on large-cap issues. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and Nasdaq 100 all finished lower while the Russell 2000 (+0.1%) and S&P 400 Midcap Index (+0.1%) scored small gains.

Gains in a handful of influential large-cap stocks like Apple (AAPL 567.90, +2.90), Boeing (BA 132.72, +1.22), 3M (MMM 126.84, +0.38), Intel (INTC 24.27, +0.53), and Tiffany & Co. (TIF 89.71, +1.13) helped limit today's losses, yet every sector in the S&P still finished in red figures with the exception of the industrials sector which was unchanged.

Another laggard of note today was the US Dollar Index (80.27, -0.35). It got clipped largely on account of the euro taking off after the ECB elected to keep its main lending rate unchanged and ECB President Draghi avoided any telltale hint at his press conference that further easing measures would be implemented in the very near future. The euro crossed at 1.3669 against the dollar, up 0.6% from yesterday.

The dollar weakness did not benefit commodities much and it certainly didn't help gold prices, which slipped 1.7% to $1225.80/oz.

Friday's action is sure to be dictated by the details of the November employment report and the direction long-term interest rates take in its wake.
Related Stories

Nasdaq +33.6% YTD
Russell 2000 +32.1% YTD
S&P 500 +25.2% YTD
DJIA +20.8% YTD

3:30 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] Precious metals pared yesterday's gains following encouraging economic data. Despite resuming their downtrend, both gold and silver futures closed near a (pit trade) session high. February gold futures fell 1.2% to $1227.10/oz while March silver futures fell 1.3% to $19.57/oz. The Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX 20.63, -0.59) hit a new five-year low today.

January crude oil futures rose again today and made a one month, settling up 0.2% at $97.39/barrel. January natural gas futures rose 4.3% to a near two month high at $4.13/MMBtu following bullish EIA storage.

3:00 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] Well, from the looks of it, today's weakness is primarily a large-cap affair. While the Dow Jones Industrial Average (-0.5%), S&P 500 (-0.5%), and Nasdaq 100 (-0.4%) are all down today, the Russell 2000 (+0.3%) and the S&P 400 Midcap Index (+0.1%) are both up today.

That mixed disposition doesn't necessarily connote a lot of fear about the Fed tapering its asset purchases perhaps as early as this month. What it suggests is that judgment on that issue is probably being deferred at least until tomorrow when the employment report is released and that today's weakness is perhaps more a case of some portfolio rebalancing taking place.

Whatever the case may be, blue chips are on the outside looking in today. To that end, the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq 100 all just hit new lows for the session.

2:30 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 dipped to a new low for the session (-8.46) a short time ago, but didn't spend a lot of time testing those cold waters. Still, it remains very much on track for its fifth straight losing session.

The big drags today include the financial (-0.8%) consumer staples (-0.8%), utilities (-0.8%), and telecom services (-1.0%) sectors. One commonality between those groups is that they are more interest-rate sensitive than others. The latter three sectors in particular are known for their typically higher dividend yields, so they are feeling some heat from the recent jump in long-term rates.

Separately, we can see some of the angst surrounding tomorrow's employment report in the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX 15.23, +0.53), which is up 3.6% today and trading at its highest point since mid-October. The VIX Index has actually risen 11.6% this month versus a 1.1% drop for the S&P 500.

2:00 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The major indices are looking to hold the line on the downside. They aren't at their lows for the day, but they are close.

Thus far, we have seen recurring support keep things from extending further which, in turn, has prompted some recurring buy-the-dip action. The net result is that it has been a pretty range-bound market for most of the session as neither buyers nor sellers are staking much of a claim in front of the November employment report tomorrow.

The Briefing.com consensus estimate for nonfarm payrolls is pegged at 188,000 and at 200,000 for nonfarm private payrolls. Yesterday's upside surprise in the ADP Employment Change report raised expectations that consensus estimates will be met or surpassed.

A weaker-than-expected payrolls figure is likely to help the Treasury market pare this week's losses as it would reduce concerns about a possible tapering at the December meeting. That could also goose the stock market pretty good, too, but we'll just have to see as reactions to the employment data can be pretty screwy sometimes.

1:30 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] Just when it looks like the market is poised for a bigger recovery run, the sellers turn up again and knock it back. That has been the prevailing order of things since the last update as a downdraft on no news ensued.

To be fair, though, sellers haven't been allowed to take total control of the market today either. Losses have been pretty modest in scope for most of the session and the Russell 2000 (+0.3%) is actually up today, reflecting the relative strength of small-cap issues.

On a related note, the Stock Trader's Almanac notes that small-cap stocks have a tendency to outperform big-cap stocks beginning in mid-December in anticipation of the so-called January Effect when they tend to do well as year-end bonus money gets put to work and some of the previous year's worst-performing issues have cleared the hurdle of year-end tax-loss selling, leaving many traders to think they are due for a bounce.

1:00 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The major indices have spent nearly the entire session below the unchanged mark after some better-than-expected headline data for the initial claims and Q3 GDP reports raised another round of tapering concerns. A closer look at the reports suggests to us those concerns are a bit overdone specifically as they relate to the aforementioned reports. In all likelihood, the weakness today probably relates more to the tapering angst that surrounds the November employment report on Friday than it does to the new data received today.

Briefly, initial claims for the week ending November 30 dropped by 23,000 to 298,000 (Briefing.com consensus 330,000) while the second estimate for Q3 GDP showed a robust growth rate of 3.6%, up from 2.8% in the first estimate. Some important caveats with those reports are as follows:

The Department of Labor indicated that the holiday (Thanksgiving this time) created some seasonal adjustment problems. Those problems will likely be worked out with a higher print in subsequent weeks, although it is still evident that the initial claims trend has an encouraging form to it.
The change in private inventories accounted for 1.68 percentage points of the third quarter growth rate. Final sales of domestic product, which excludes the change in inventories, were up a more modest 1.9%. That is actually lower than the 2.0% growth in final sales that was reported with the first estimate of Q3 GDP and it is fifth lowest pace of growth seen over the past 15 quarters.

Economic growth frankly isn't as robust as the Q3 GDP headline makes it seem. To that end, it was also shown in the GDP report that personal consumption expenditures increased just 1.4% in the third quarter. That is down from 1.8% in the second quarter and is the weakest increase since the fourth quarter of 2009 when consumption was flat.

Accordingly, tapering concerns might be the catch phrase today, but the data and the likelihood that inventories will be a drag on fourth quarter GDP imply to us that those concerns are being oversold today as the primary catalyst for the soft market conditions.

Even so, it would be remiss not to mention that the Treasury market moved to its lows for the day after the initial claims and GDP reports. Those lows, however, weren't all that low if there was an abject fear that today's data ensured the Fed will announce a tapering decision at its December meeting. The 10-yr note is now down just six ticks with its yield at 2.858%. One can assume that a more telling move will be revealed on Friday following the employment report.

The overall trading action today has been on the choppy side of things, due in part to a lack of concerted sector leadership. There aren't any sectors at the moment that are strong in an absolute sense; rather, today's strength is couched more in terms of relative strength, which is why the technology sector (unch) fits the bill as a "strong" sector today. The best-performing sectors currently are the industrials and consumer discretionary sectors, both of which are up 0.2%.

Most of the big moves today have been reserved for individual issues like Conns Inc. (CONN 68.59, +10.13), which impressed with its earnings report, and Wet Seal (WTSL 2.73, -0.46), which did not. Apple (AAPL 571.53, +6.53), meanwhile, has been an influential source of support for the broader market since the opening bell, having benefited from reports that it has signed a deal to distribute the iPhone over China Mobile's network and that activist Carl Icahn is proposing a $50 bln share buyback plan.

12:30 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] A bit of an upward thrust the last 30 minutes brought the three major indices back close to where they started the day. Thus far, however, buyers haven't been able to take total control of the action.

The Advance-Decline line is looking better from earlier, although still favors decliners at the NYSE and Nasdaq. Things look a little better on that front at the Nasdaq where decliners lead by a 13-to-12 margin.

Apple (AAPL 571.80, +6.80) remains an influential source of support for the broader market along with some key industrial names like Boeing (BA 132.54, +1.05), Caterpillar (CAT 84.48, +0.51), 3M (MMM 127.40, +0.94), and United Technologies (UTX 109.40, +0.46).

Notwithstanding some disappointing sales and/or earnings updates from a number of retailers like Costco (COST 121.10, -1.87), Aeropostale (ARO 9.34, -0.02), and Wet Seal (WTSL 2.77, -0.42), the retail group is holding up reasonably well today and is providing a measure of support for the consumer discretionary sector (+0.2%).

12:00 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] After some early volatility, the market appears to be settling down some with the S&P 500 having been confined to a two-point trading range the last hour. The Treasury market, in turn, has steadied itself near its lows for the day, which aren't all that low. The 10-yr note is down six ticks while its yield has pushed up two basis points to 2.86%.

Precious metals prices, which were noticeably weaker earlier, have pared some of their losses in a rebound effort. Gold, which slipped below $1217.00/oz., is now trading at $1232.80/oz (-1.2%).

The weakness in gold came in spite of a weaker US Dollar Index today, which is getting clipped largely on account of the euro having taken off after the ECB decision to leave its key lending rate unchanged and forward-looking remarks from ECB President Draghi that did not provide a telltale hint of further easing activity occurring in the very near future.

The euro is crossing at 1.3655 against the dollar, up 0.6% from yesterday.

11:30 am: [BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 has lost ground the last four sessions. That is an attention-grabbing headline, but it loses a little punch when taking into account that the total decline over those four sessions has been 14 points, or 0.8%, following an eight-week advance in which it gained 150 points or 9.1%.

At the moment, the S&P 500 is on course for its fifth straight losing session, yet like the previous four sessions, the losses are fairly modest in scope. Sellers don't have a strong foothold on the market (it's more like a toehold) as there is still a prevailing belief that a buy-the-dip mentality will shine through like it has all year and keep the pullback in check.

The industrials sector (+0.1%) is the lone sector sporting a gain at this time as it draws support from the transports, which are exhibiting relative strength. The Dow Jones Transportation Average is up 0.04% versus a decline of 0.3% for the S&P 500.

11:00 am: [BRIEFING.COM] The major indices hit news lows for the session in the last half hour as buyers simply aren't showing a lot of conviction so far. Strikingly, the Russell 2000 is bucking the broader trend and is up 0.1% (not a big gain but an intersting one in light of the weakness in most other areas).

There has been a lot of talk today about economic activity improving given the headline surprises in the initial claims and Q3 GDP reports, yet there isn't any clear strength in the cyclical sectors. The financial (-0.8%) and materials (-0.5%) sectors are both underperforming the market. A Deutsche bank downgrade of Citigroup (C 51.25, -0.79) and Morgan Stanley (MS 30.53, -0.60) to Hold from Buy is holding some sway over the financials today.

Elsewhere, the homebuilding stocks are mostly lower as the jump in long-term rates has fueled concerns about mortgage/housing demand. The SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB 30.87, -0.11) reflects the industry softness today. The 10-yr yield has kissed 2.86% today after starting the week at 2.75%.

10:35 am: [BRIEFING.COM] Precious metals are weak this morning on growing speculation of a Fed taper following strong economic data released earlier today. The GDP was revised up to 3.6% in the second estimate of 3Q2013 GDP from 2.8% in the advance release. That is up from a 2.5% gain in the second quarter and the largest increase since growing 3.9% in 2Q2010. Feb gold pulled back from its session high of $1229.70 and is now trading 2.4% lower at $1217.20. Mar silver dipped to a session low of $19.22 earlier in the session and is now down 2.8% at $19.28.

Jan crude oil briefly dipped into the red and to a session low of $97.11 moments after floor trade opened, but has been trending higher and pushing new session highs since. It is now 0.5% higher at $97.66.

Jan natural gas has been trading higher this morning, coming off its session low of $3.98. It rallied to new session highs following strong inventory data and is now up 3.1% at $4.08.

10:05 am: [BRIEFING.COM] Our sector watch section indicates the technology (0.1%), industrials (0.2), health care (0.1%), and consumer discretionary (0.1%) sectors are strong. They aren't strong in an absolute sense, only in a relative sense as they are faring better than the broader market in the early going.

Overall, there hasn't been a lot of buying interest outside of some specific stocks like Conns Inc. (CONN 66.17, +7.71), which impressed with its latest earnings report and outlook, and Tiffany & Co. (TIF 90.08, +1.50), which was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman Sachs, which also added the stock to its Conviction Buy List.

The trading action has been a bit choppy as participants try to reconcile the idea of an improving economy against the idea that ongoing improvement might invite an earlier-than-expected tapering of the Fed's asset purchase program.

Separately, the factory order report for October, which was just released, indicated orders declined 0.9%, which was a bit better than the Briefing.com consensus estimate that called for a 1.0% decline.

9:45 am: [BRIEFING.COM] A soft start for the major indices, which is fitting for some of the "analysis paralysis" that has occurred this morning with the release of the initial claims and revised Q3 GDP reports. Both reports were better than expected, yet they weren't all they appeared to be at first blush given seasonal adjustment problems for the claims number and the impact of the change in private inventories on Q3 GDP growth.

Apple (AAPL 572.91, +7.91) is providing some influential support to the broader market following news it has reportedly worked out a deal with China Mobile to distribute the iPhone over China Mobile's network, and word that Carl Icahn is going to push for a $50 bln share buyback plan.

By and large, early strength is limited to individual stocks as there isn't much leadership to speak of from a sector standpoint at this juncture.

9:17 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -4.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +0.30. The initial claims and Q3 GDP headlines were both better than expected, but not all they seemed to be. Seasonal adjustment problems biased the claims data lower while the change in private inventories biased Q3 GDP growth higher. Real final sales, which exclude the change in inventories, were up just 1.9%, which is down from the 2.0% growth rate reported in the first estimate for Q3 GDP.

Notwithstanding those caveats, market participants appear to be struggling with the good headlines insomuch as there is a perception that they might encourage a Fed tapering sooner than expected. That sentiment appears to be weighing on the futures market, which has slipped to its lows of the morning.

8:59 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -2.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +3.00. The major Asian averages ended mostly lower with only India's Sensex (+1.2%) seeing a noteworthy gain. The Sensex rallied after exit polls showed India's opposition party, Bharatiya Janata, won three crucial state votes. Meanwhile, Japan's Nikkei (-1.5%) led to the downside as continued strength of the yen weighed. A wider than anticipated trade deficit (AUD0.53bln actual v. AUD0.38 bln expected) dropped Australia's ASX (-1.4%), but the news wasn't all bad as exports to China rose 3% to $9.2 bln. China's Shanghai Composite (-0.2%) and Hong Kong's Hang Seng (-0.1%) ended little changed.

Markets across Europe hold steady after both the Bank of England (0.50% and GBP375 bln) and European Central Bank (0.25%) kept policy on hold. Participants should instead be focused on debt markets in the region, which are seeing notable weakness, especially in the core. Germany's 10y is +10bps at 1.400% while France's 10y is +8bps at 2.235%. Only Italian BTPs are bid with the 10y -1bp at 4.150%.

8:33 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +2.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +7.50. The latest weekly initial jobless claims count totaled 298,000, which was lower than the 330,000 that had been expected by the Briefing.com consensus. Today's tally was below the revised prior week count of 321,000. As for continuing claims, they fell to 2.744 million from 2.765 million.

Separately, the second estimate of third quarter GDP indicated growth of 3.6%, up from the 2.8% increase observed in the preliminary reading. The upwardly revised increase is higher than the 2.8% increase that economists polled by Briefing.com had expected. The third quarter GDP Deflator was revised up to 2.0% from 1.7%.

8:09 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: flat. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +4.00. U.S. equity futures are little changed ahead of a barrage of economic data that includes the initial claims and second estimate for Q3 GDP reports at 8:30 a.m. ET. Both the ECB and the Bank of England left their key lending rates unchanged at 0.25% and 0.50%, respectively, as expected. The S&P futures are trading close to fair value, suggesting a relatively flat start for the cash market.

Reviewing overnight developments:

Asian markets ended mostly lower. Japan's Nikkei -1.5%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng -0.1%, and China's Shanghai Composite -0.2%. Australia was down 1.4%
Investors received several economic data points:
South Korea's GDP rose 1.1% quarter-over-quarter (1.1% forecast, 1.1% prior) while the year-over-year reading increased 3.3% (3.3% expected, 3.3% last).
Australia's trade deficit widened to AUD529B from AUD271B (deficit of AUD375B expected).
Japan's Foreign Bonds Buying report pointed to net purchases of JPY65 B (prior net purchases of JPY1.410.1B
In news:
India did well with exit polls suggesting the business-friendly opposition BJP party did well in state elections
China Mobile reportedly inked an agreement to distribute Apple's iPhone on its network

Major European indices are mixed and little changed. Great Britain's FTSE +0.04%, Germany's DAX +0.04%, France's CAC 40 -0.1%
Economic data was limited:
The European Central Bank held its key interest rate steady at 0.25%, as expected.
The Bank of England left its key interest rate and purchasing program unchanged at their respective 0.50% and GBP375 billion, as expected.
France's unemployment rate rose to 10.9% from 10.8% (10.6% expected).
Spain's Industrial Production declined 0.8% year-over-year (1.7% consensus, 0.8% prior).
Looking at news:
Chemicals maker Merck got a nice boost after saying it will buy AZ Electronic Materials, which makes chemicals that are used in the iPad

In U.S. corporate news:

Apple (AAPL 574.00, +9.00): up 1.6% on news it signed agreement with China Mobile to distribute iPhones over China Mobile network
Aeropostale (ARO 8.69, -0.67): down 7.2% after disappointing Q3 earnings report and warning for the fourth quarter
General Growth Properties (GGP 21.20, +0.92): up 4.5% after Standard & poor's said company will be added to S&P 500 after the close on Monday, December 9

Weekly initial claims and the second estimate of third quarter GDP will be released at 8:30 ET. The day's data will be topped off with the 10:00 ET release of October Factory Orders.

7:37 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +0.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +6.30.

6:34 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -0.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +3.50.

6:34 am: [BRIEFING.COM] Nikkei...15177.49...-230.50...-1.50%. Hang Seng...23712.57...-16.10...-0.10%.

6:34 am: [BRIEFING.COM] FTSE...6509.18...-0.80...0.00. DAX...9152.97...+12.30...+0.10%.

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney, Reuters and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader Image@ http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader

http://www.thestrategylab.com
Phone: +1 708 572-4885
Business Hours: 8am - 5pm est (Mon - Fri)
Skype Messenger: kebec2002
questions@thestrategylab.com
Go Back To TheStrategyLab.com Homepage
Market Update


Top
 Profile  
 
Display posts from previous:  Sort by  
Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 1 post ] 

All times are UTC - 5 hours [ DST ]


Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest


You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot post attachments in this forum

Search for:
Jump to:  
cron
Powered by phpBB © 2000, 2002, 2005, 2007 phpBB Group
Translated by Xaphos © 2007, 2008, 2009 phpBB.fr