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 Post subject: August 16th Friday Trade Results - Profit $1470.00
PostPosted: Fri Aug 16, 2013 7:09 pm 
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Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
Phone: +1 708 572-4885
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click on the above image to view today's performance verification

Price Action Trade Performance for Today: Emini TF ($TF_F) futures @ $470.00 dollars or +4.70 points, Emini ES ($ES_F) futures @ $1000.00 dollars or +20.00 points, Light Crude Oil CL ($CL_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.00 points, Gold GC ($GC_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.00 points and EuroFX 6E ($6E_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.0000 ticks. Total Profit @ $1470.00 dollars.

Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures: 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures: 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup
Light Crude Oil CL (WTI) Futures: 1 tick or 0.01 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup
Gold GC Futures: 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup
EuroFX 6E Futures: 1 tick or 0.0001 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup

In addition, all of my trades were posted real-time in the chat room. You can read today's chat room logs for details about each one of my trades via price action trading from entry to exit (e.g. time, price, contract size) along with price action commentary as the trade traversed to its completion...all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=120&t=1581

Also, posted below are direct links to information about my price action trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis). I'm primarily a day trader because it suits my personal lifestyle but I do occasionally swing trade and position trade. Simply, my trade method is applicable for position trading, swing trading and day trading.

Image Price Action Analysis via WRB Analysis Tutorials @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=119&t=718

Image Trade Signal Strategies via Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our price action trade strategies with support prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Image Trading Plan Daily Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=216&t=1913

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Market Context Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, CNNMoney, Reuters and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED/ECB/IMF actions or any important global economic events (e.g. Eurozone, MarketWatch.com) that had an impact on today's price action in many trading instruments I monitor during the trading day. Simply, I'm a strong believer that key market events causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility resulting in trade opportunities (swing points and strong continuation price actions) that reach profit targets. Thus, I pay attention to these key market events, intermarket analysis (e.g. Forex EurUsd, EuroFX 6E futures, Gold GC futures, Light Crude Oil (WTI) CL & Brent Oil futures, Eurex DAX futures, Euronext FTSE100 futures, Emini ES futures, Emini TF futures, Treasury ZB futures and U.S. Dollar Index futures) while using WRB Analysis from one trade to the next trade to give me the market context for price action trading before the appearance of my technical analysis trade signals. Therefore, I maintain these archives to allow me to understand what was happening on any given trading day in the past involving key market events to help better understand my trade decisions (day trading, swing trading, position trading)...something I can not get from my broker statements alone.

Stocks Drop For 2nd Straight Week

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click on the above image to view today's price action of key markets

NEW YORK (CNNMoney)
Stocks fell for a second consecutive week, with the Dow and S&P 500 dropping more than 2%. While losses like this have been rare so far this year, it's pretty typical during the dog days of August.

The Dow Jones industrial average, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq were just slightly lower Friday, but the pain of Thursday's big sell-off still lingered.

Despite two down weeks, the major indexes remain between 15% and 20% higher for the year. But future gains may be hard to come by as investors worry about the Fed and the broader economy.

Bond yields spike on Fed jitters: Questions about the Federal Reserve's next move remain unanswered. Many traders think the Fed will start to taper its $85 billion in monthly bond buying sooner rather than later.

There are also concerns that other central banks around the world, including the Bank of England, will begin to raise rates soon.

Those worries have put pressure on stocks and pushed the yield on the 10-year Treasury to 2.83%, the highest in two years, from 2.6% at the start of the week.

Are consumers still spending? Investors are also growing nervous about the health of the consumer in light of weak earnings from a number of retailers.

Nordstrom (JWN, Fortune 500) was the latest to disappoint. The upscale department store's revenue came in short of forecasts and it also offered weak guidance for the remainder of the year, sending shares nearly 5% lower.

Earlier in the week, Wal-Mart, (WMT, Fortune 500) Macy's (M, Fortune 500) and Kohl's (KSS, Fortune 500) reported lackluster results and tepid outlooks.

The weakness among retailers was a hot topic among traders on StockTwits, who wondered what it could mean for other companies, including credit card giants Visa (V, Fortune 500) and MasterCard (MA, Fortune 500).

jf4533: $JWN confirms what $WMT and $M have been telling us already... consumer is not buying. ominous for Holiday sell season, and $SPY too.

flounder: If consumer spending is as bad as what $WMT $TGT $M $JWN say, then $MA and $V may be too stretched here. #Cautious

* Fear is back in the market

Also on the earnings front, Dell (DELL, Fortune 500) reported solid quarterly results after the close Thursday, but shares traded lower Friday. The company's future is still in limbo. Founder Michael Dell wants to take it private, but hedge fund manager Carl Icahn has put up a fight.

bogdanryabyy: Wonder what Ichan will do with $DELL in the future? All I know is not to bet against Ichan and his track record.

Pandora (P) shares moved higher after Goldman Sachs upgraded the stock to buy from neutral due to rising advertising and subscription revenue. Traders had mixed feelings about the upgrade.

almostatrader: $P music to my ears!

PTSD_Trader: I want $P in my portfolio at some point, but a $GS upgrade is the kiss of death. :)

UltraGwenn: $P one thing i've learned in life is, when $GS pumps, i short Bearish.

* Video - People still use Pandora? Apparently.

J.C. Penney (JCP, Fortune 500) shares were down again Friday after the retailer announced it has reached an agreement with former board member and its largest shareholder Bill Ackman that will allow the activist investor to sell his stake in the company.

What the heck happened in China? Asian markets went on a wild ride, triggered by a possible trading error in Shanghai that sent China's marquee index soaring before momentum reversed. The Shanghai Composite index ended with a 0.6% loss. Stocks in Hong Kong were flat and Japan's Nikkei fell.

Meanwhile, European markets bucked the recent downturn and finished higher.

Oil Ends Volatile Session Higher, Gains On Week

By Myra P. Saefong and Barbara Kollmeyer, MarketWatch

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — Oil futures ended a volatile session Friday with a minor gain, up nearly 5% for the week as traders assessed the risk to global oil supplies tied to violence in Egypt.

Prices extended their climb to a sixth straight session, though weaker-than-expected data on U.S. consumer sentiment dented the outlook for energy demand.

Crude oil for September delivery (NMN:CLU3) rose 13 cents, or 0.1%, to settle at $107.46 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It traded at highs above $108 and at lows under $107.

“The risk seems to be lessening a bit,” said Phil Flynn, senior markets analyst at Price Futures Group. “Despite violence in Egypt [there’s] no supply disruption.”

Nymex prices closed 1.4% higher for the week. They tallied a six-session gain of roughly 3.8%, including a 2.5% climb last Friday.

October Brent crude (IET:UK:LCOV3) closed at $110.40 a barrel on ICE Futures, up 80 cents, or 0.7%. The contract was 3.3% higher for the week. Prices were volatile Friday, trading between an intraday low of $109.17 and intraday high of $110.45.

Fawad Razaqzada, technical analyst at GFT Markets, said the trend remains bullish for West Texas Intermediate crude and Brent crude “so we will probably see higher prices next week.”
Supply risks

The bloodshed in Egypt drew vows of support by the Muslim Brotherhood to continue their protests against the ousting of former President Mohammed Morsi, with demonstrations held Friday outside mosques across the nation.

The interim government had declared a state of emergency earlier in the week, though reports said the clampdown hadn’t affected traffic through the Suez Canal, a key oil transit hub, or flows through the Suez-Mediterranean pipeline.

But Kilduff Report analysts said Thursday that other supply issues loomed over both Nymex and Brent crudes in the near term.

“Looking ahead, when all the outages are added up for September and beyond, in terms of the North Sea, Libya, both Northern and Southern Iraq (work on the Basra export infrastructure), and the sanctions on Iran, the market could be out some 3.0 million barrels per day,” they wrote.
Click to Play
Political progress in Mexico

Top officials from Mexico’s three major political parties discuss the impact of a wide-reaching agreement that has paved the way for key reforms.

“Unfortunately, that is just too tall of an order for the American shale boom to fulfill. So despite the hopes of U.S. and other consumers, the hoped-for surfeit of crude oil on the global market will remain off in the distance,” Kilduff Report said, projecting a likely climb for Nymex crude to above $110 a barrel.

Economic data Friday offered a peak at the outlook for energy demand, though not a very clear one.

The preliminary August reading of the University of Michigan/Thomson Reuters consumer sentiment fell to 80.0 in August, down from 85.1 in July, according to reports.

But U.S. productivity rose at a 0.9% annual rate, compared with a forecast for a 0.7% increase from MarketWatch-polled economists. Housing starts bounced back in July, up 5.9% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 896,000, though that was below the forecast for 915,000.

On Nymex, petroleum products finished on a mixed note.

September gasoline (NMN:RBU3) lost nearly 2 cents, or 0.6%, at $2.97 a gallon, still up 2% for the week, and September heating oil (NMN:HOU3) added a cent to $3.08 a gallon for a gain of 3% for the week.

September natural gas (NMN:NGU13) closed down 5 cents, or 1.5%, at $3.37 per million British thermal units, but still gained roughly 4% for the week. Prices leapt 2.3% Thursday on the back of a smaller-than-expected increase in weekly U.S. natural-gas inventories.

Prices Friday were most likely seeing some short covering ahead of the weekend, with the possibility of tropical activity in the Atlantic soon as a cloud mass around the Yucatán Peninsula may cause some problems over the weekend to early next week, said Beth Sewell, managing partner at Quantum Power & Gas Services.

There wasn’t anything to be concerned about when it comes to weather system Erin, which has weakened into a tropical depression from a tropical storm, she said. “Even if it hits the Gulf [of Mexico], we only receive about 6% of [natural] gas from offshore.”

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4:20 pm : The stock market fluttered on Friday, trying to bounce back from Thursday's drubbing while at the same time contending with a further rise in the 10-yr note yield, which hit 2.86% at its highest level of the day. The latter got in the way of rebound efforts as the major indices ended this options expiration day modestly lower.

There was evidence in today's session of participants pressing the buy-the-dip trade that has worked so well for so long. That evidence was seen early on in the outperformance of the homebuilding stocks, which have been hit hard of late. Ultimately, though, the strength in homebuilding stocks faded as the yield on the 10-yr note, and concerns about rising mortgage rates, increased.

The on again-off again showing of the homebuilders was representative of the overall action. There just wasn't a lot of conviction on either the buy side or the sell side.

The S&P 500, for its part, danced above and below its 50-day simple moving average (1657/1656), but closed just below that notable support level due to some closing selling interest.

Gains in individual stocks like Boeing (BA 103.47, +0.74), Apple (AAPL 502.33, +4.42), American Express (AXP 75.17, +0.29), and United Continental (UAL 30.86, +0.76) offered a measure of support, but clear-cut sector strength was lacking for the most part today. The transports were about the only area where buying interest was broad-based and semiconductor stocks fared reasonably well after analysts defended Applied Materials (AMAT 15.62, +0.30) following an otherwise disappointing earnings report and fiscal fourth quarter outlook.

The Dow Jones Transportation Average increased 0.6% while the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose 0.4%.

Retailers were once again on the soft side after Nordstrom (JWN 56.43, -2.90) and Jos. A. Bank (JOSB 41.00, -3.10) joined the roster of retail companies providing earnings warnings. Those warnings weighed most heavily on the apparel companies.

In terms of interest rates, they started out on a pretty subdued path, but selling picked up noticeably around 12:30 p.m. ET. Soon thereafter, CNBC reported that it had been told by a White House source that chances of Larry Summers being nominated for Fed chairman were two in three. That report presumably triggered increased selling interest with participants concerned that Mr. Summers might be more inclined than Janet Yellen (the current Vice Chairman and other leading candidate) to dial back the Fed's asset purchases more readily than Ms. Yellen would be. The selling pressure took the yield on the 10-yr note as high as 2.86% before it settled at 2.84%.

The continued rise in long-term rates continued to take a toll on the high-dividend yielding utilities (-1.1%) and telecom services (-1.0%) sectors, which were the only sectors to lose at least 1.0% today. For the week, the utilities sector dropped 4.4% while the telecom services sector fell 2.3%.

There was another batch of economic data today that included the Housing Starts and Building Permits report for July, the Productivity report for the second quarter, and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report for August. True to recent form, the economic data was uneven.

Housing starts and building permits were basically in-line with expectations, rising 5.9% and 2.7%, respectively, to an annualized rate of 896,000 and 943,000, yet those increases were driven entirely by multi-family units. Starts and permits for single-family homes were down 2.2% and 1.9% from June.

Second quarter productivity increased 0.9% and unit labor costs rose 1.4%. Both numbers were better than expected and both were promptly ignored by the market given the dated nature of the report.

The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report, however, captured some of the market's attention with a disappointing headline print of 80.0. That was down from 85.1 in July which, to be fair, was a six-year high. Still, the pullback in the indexes for current conditions and expectations were downers in terms of the report's overall messaging.

With the options expiration today, volume was the heaviest it has been all week with 835 mln shares traded at the NYSE.
DJ30 -30.72 NASDAQ -3.34 SP500 -5.49 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1148/1.46 bln/1353 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1065/835 mln/1988

3:45 pm : Commodities continued to display some high volatility in today's session. Crude oil rallied above $108/barrel before dropping back near $106.50/barrel. Ultimately, Sept crude oil ended the day $0.21 higher at $107.55/barrel.

Sept natural gas ended $0.05 lower at $3.37/MMBtu.

Precious metals rallied today, which also included a swift decline in morning activity. Following the morning drop, gold and silver marched higher and ended the day near session highs. Dec gold closed $11.30 higher at $1371.00 and Sept silver closed $0.40 at $23.31/oz. NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1284/1259.7 mln/1197 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1170/564 mln/1848

3:00 pm : The market is trying to put together a late-day run. In doing so, the S&P 500 has once again moved back above its 50-day simple moving average and it has done so in conjunction with a modest improvement in the Treasury market where the yield on the 10-yr note has dipped to 2.83% from 2.86%.

Now, will things hold or will the market simply close out a down week on a down note? That is the question that will probably be answered by where interest rates go over the next hour and what the market's key leadership groups do. If the financial sector can get into gear, there could be some nice ballast into the close.

At the moment, the financial sector is flat.DJ30 -5.73 NASDAQ +2.55 SP500 -3.39 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1221/1.10 bln/1256 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1108/501 mln/1905

2:30 pm : In the course of today's session, the 1657/1656 level for the S&P 500 has pivoted from support to resistance. Noticeably, the latest rebound try was beaten back at 1656. There remains time in today's trading to make another stab at clearing that level, but as we have suggested throughout, the path of interest rates is apt to help determine the odds of success in clearing resistance.

Strikingly, the CBOE Volatility Index, which was down more than 7.0% earlier today, has worked its way back to being close to unchanged (VIX 14.70, -0.03). That move could be owed to concerns about weekend violence in Egypt, and the possible spread of that conflict, as well as to worries that rising interest rates could drive further selling pressure in the stock market. DJ30 -44.22 NASDAQ -2.59 SP500 -7.51 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1138/1.02 bln/1334 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 973/470 mln/2010

2:00 pm : The major indices have been backpedaling while long-term rates have been rising. The yield on the 10-yr note recently jumped to 2.86%, which helped knock the S&P 500 below support at its 50-day simple moving average (1657/1656) and to new lows for the day.

Selling interest abated in the 1653 area, but we could see things resume to the downside if the S&P 500 is unable to make its way back above its 50-day simple moving average. Its success in doing so could be determined by whether selling interest abates in the Treasury market and rates settle down.

With the pullback from earlier highs (which weren't all that high), the financial sector (-0.2%) has surrendered its gains, as has the consumer discretionary sector (-0.2%).DJ30 -35.86 NASDAQ +1.28 SP500 -5.89 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1210/940 mln/1255 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1035/433 mln/1944

1:30 pm : The major averages remain mixed, yet their standing has been lowered as long-term interest rates have been pressing higher today. The 10-yr yield now stands at 2.85%.

We noticed an hour ago that Treasury prices were leaking more noticeably on no news. However, there now seems to be some context behind the recent bout of weakness. According to CNBC, a White House source has indicated that the chances of Larry Summers being nominated for Fed chairman are two in three. Those are pretty good odds, and the Treasury market is concerned that Mr. Summers might be more inclined than Janet Yellen (the current Vice Chairman and other leading candidate) to throttle back on the Fed's asset purchase program a little more readily than Ms. Yellen would be.

Nothing is set in stone here of course, but the jump in rates has been a distracting factor for the equity market. Market breadth, which had been fairly even at the NYSE earlier today, now favors decliners by a 9-to-5 margin. DJ30 -36.57 NASDAQ +2.61 SP500 -5.66 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1245/865 mln/1205 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1095/402 mln/1868

1:00 pm : On the heels of yesterday's broad-based selloff, the stock market has been slow to recover on this options expiration day. The action has been mixed, and uneventful, from the start as the major averages have held to tight trading ranges. All the while, the benchmark 10-yr note has been drifting lower, pushing its yield up to 2.83%.

Thus far, the jump in long-term rates today hasn't been too problematic for the stock market, but that could change if the weakness persists through the afternoon session.

The stock market is in a bit of a fog at the moment, trying to assess whether another buy-the-dip rally is in the offing or whether it is in the midst of a more extended period of selling than it has grown accustomed to seeing. The path of interest rates may very well provide the answer, but as rates press higher, leadership in the stock market weakens, economic data remains uneven, and political unrest festers in Egypt, the market is understandably in a cooling off period at the moment.

Today's action has been a mixed bag and it follows on the heels of -- what else -- uneven economic data. Housing starts and building permits rose 5.9% and 2.7%, respectively, in July to annualized rates of 896,000 and 943,000. That was pretty much in-line with the Briefing.com consensus estimates for each. The wrinkle in the report, though, is that the improvement in starts and permits was driven entirely by multi-family units. That fact notwithstanding, homebuilding stocks are among today's strongest issues with gains between 1.0% and 5.0% for most of the major builders.

Other areas of strength today are found in the semiconductor industry and the transports which, like the homebuilders, have been hard hit of late. Mindful of that, it is evident that some participants are pressing the buy-the-dip trade.

Those efforts have not been embraced fully, though, given the backup in interest rates, as well as the understanding that the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report for August showed a surprising drop in consumer sentiment. Specifically, the index fell to 80.0 from 85.1 in July. We would be remiss not to add that the July reading was the highest in six years. Still, a drop in both the current conditions index and the index for consumer expectations served to put a damper on things.

The second quarter productivity report, which showed a 0.9% increase in productivity and a 1.4% increase in unit labor costs, was generally greeted with a yawn and has had little impact on today's proceedings.

From an individual stock standpoint, Applied Materials (AMAT 15.73, +0.41) and Nordstrom (JWN 57.35, -1.98) have been story stocks. Both companies disappointed with their guidance after reporting quarterly earnings. Applied Materials, however, has managed to hold up thanks to a number of analysts defending its outlook. Nordstrom, and its retailing brethren, haven't been so lucky. DJ30 -19.02 NASDAQ +7.15 SP500 -3.16 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1364/798 mln/1084 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1306/376 mln/1635

12:25 pm : The market hasn't been in much of a hurry to get anywhere today, yet it has drifted back into red figures in the last few minutes.

One of the halting influences perhaps is the 10-yr note, which has fallen off to its lows for the day on no news. In doing so, the yield on the benchmark instrument has climbed to 2.82%. If the weakness gets extended, then it is possible that the stock market would be confronted with a more noticeable downdraft.

For the time being, stocks continue to meander.DJ30 -8.39 NASDAQ +11.16 SP500 -0.87 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1403/717 mln/1019 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1444/343 mln/1506

11:55 am : Looking at the broader market, there are six sectors that are down and four that are up. The key difference is that the four sectors that are up -- technology (+0.3%), financials (+0.4%), industrials (+0.2%), and consumer discretionary (+0.2%) -- are also among the most heavily-weighted sectors in the S&P 500 (technology and financials are #1 and #2) and that is helping the market to hold its ground.

Market breadth reflects the mixed nature of today's trading as the A/D line at the NYSE is split almost evenly between advancing issues and declining issues.

At the Nasdaq, the edge goes to advancing issues, which lead by a 1.4-to-1 margin. On a related note, the Nasdaq Composite is up 0.3% and is the best-performing major average today. Gains in Apple (AAPL 501.70, +3.79), Cisco (CSCO 24.53, +0.04), Intel (INTC 22.17, +0.14), and Applied Materials (AMAT 15.86, +0.54) are lending added support. DJ30 +8.53 NASDAQ +11.32 SP500 +0.49 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1395/653 mln/1000 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1466/318 mln/1459

11:30 am : A little bit can go a long way. There are little gains today, but a lot of selling of volatility. The CBOE Volatility Index, which surged 13.0% yesterday as the S&P 500 dropped 1.4%, is down 7.5% today with the S&P 500 down 0.1%.

As we have all seen, things can change in a hurry on a single headline, but at the moment, the VIX Index is acting in a manner that suggests there are expectations that the recent volatility in the market is going to settle down.

Settling down is just what the stock market has done today, too. It has held in a narrow range with a lack of concerted movement by any one sector other than the rate-sensitive utilities sector (-1.0%). DJ30 -9.88 NASDAQ +7.09 SP500 -1.61 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1299/577 mln/1063 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1334/291 mln/1558

11:00 am : The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report for August, which was disappointing, provided an excuse to drive the market lower. As it so happens, the market has plowed ahead after the report on some bargain-hunting interest that has emerged with the S&P 500 successfully testing support earlier in the session at its 50-day simple moving average (1657/1656).

The overall gains so far are nothing substantive, but there is an underlying sense that some participants are pressing the buy-the-dip trade today as some of today's best performers -- homebuilders for instance -- have been some of the worst laggards of late.

Also, the Treasury market is on the weak side of things again, yet stocks haven't been derailed by that condition. The 10-yr note is off five ticks and its yield sits at 2.79%. The bump in long-term rates, though, remains a headwind for the utilities sector, which is down 0.8% today and down 5.8% over the last three months.DJ30 +19.91 NASDAQ +14.30 SP500 +1.76 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1354/487 mln/963 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1402/260 mln/1461

10:40 am : Precious metals, crude oil and the dollar index have been showing some volatility today.

Crude oil almost ran to $108/barrel and is now sitting 0.4% higher at $107.79/barrel. Natural gas has been sliding lower and just hit a new LoD. Sept nat gas is now -1.4% at $3.37/MMBtu.

Precious metals are volatile again today. Dec gold is now +0.2% at $1363.90/oz, while Sept silver is +0.45 at $23.02/oz. DJ30 +19.84 NASDAQ +12.24 SP500 +0.95 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1305/428.6 mln/972 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1342/239 mln/1510

09:55 am : The market managed to withstand some opening selling interest and has bounced back a bit with the S&P 500 successfully testing support at its 50-day simple moving average (1657/1656). Leadership from the Dow Jones Transportation Average (+0.3%), the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (+0.8%), and the homebuilders (ITB 1.60, +0.30) -- areas that have been weak of late -- has helped in the turnaround effort.

Separately, it was reported that the preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report for decreased to 80.0 from the July reading of 85.1. The Briefing.com consensus expected the reading to remain at 85.1.DJ30 +1.36 NASDAQ +5.49 SP500 -0.95 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1112/217 mln/1058 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1215/173 mln/1532

09:40 am : The opening tick followed form with the futures indication as the S&P 500, along with the Dow and Nasdaq, started the session on a slightly lower note.

The tech sector (+0.1%) is making an early attempt to show some relative strength thanks to some leadership out of the semiconductor area. In particular, Applied Materials (AMAT 15.61, +0.28) is an early winner. The chip equipment maker reported its quarterly results last night. The company came up a penny shy of the S&P Capital IQ consensus estimate and issued downside guidance for the October quarter; however, several analysts are defending the company and its prospects this morning.

The health care (-0.6%) and consumer staples (-0.5%) sectors are the biggest laggards in the early going.DJ30 -13.43 NASDAQ +0.08 SP500 -2.45 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 939/140 mln/1145 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1012/148 mln/1675

09:16 am : [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -0.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +1.80. The S&P futures have trailed off in the last few hours with buyers lacking conviction. Although the futures are up two points, they are now trading slightly under fair value, which suggests the cash market will start the session on a slightly lower note.

The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report for August (Briefing.com consensus 85.1; prior 85.1) at 9:55 a.m. ET could be a trading catalyst. Traders will be watching that report, and any impact it has on long-term interest rates. In addition, they will be monitoring closely whether the S&P 500 can maintain a posture above its 50-day simple moving average (1657/1656).

09:00 am : [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -1.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: flat. It was a sea of red across Asia as all of the major bourses, aside from Taiwan's Taiex (+0.5%), ended in the red. India's Sensex (-4.0%) was the laggard as the rupee tumbled to a record low of 62 per dollar amid capital control fears. Elsewhere, China's Shanghai Composite (-0.6%) ended in-line with much of the region, but not before a flash smash higher of almost 6% on no news. The Composite quickly retreated back to prior levels with the latest update suggesting the move occurred due to an erroneous trade that was supposed to take place in a demo account.

In Japan, the Nikkei closed -0.8% amid an uneventful session. Financials lagged the broader market as Mitsubishi UFJ Financial and Dai-ichi Life gave up 1.3% and 1.7%, respectively.

In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng finished -0.1%, but managed to book its best week of 2013. The flat trade was highlighted by facial mask maker Magic Holdings International receiving an buyout offer of $845 mln from French cosmetic co L'Oreal. Meanwhile, shares of Everbright Financial fell 5.5% after it was said the co's trading system was behind today's erroneous spike.

In China, the Shanghai Composite settled -0.6% amid today's volatile trade. Heavyweights ICBC and PetroChina ended little changed while shares of Everbright Financial were halted.

The major European bourses trade mixed as outperformance comes from the periphery with both Italy's MIB and Spain's IBEX sporting gains of close to 0.5%. Data out of the region was rather light as CPI posted an in-line 1.6% YoY and the current account surplus missed estimates with a reading of EUR16.9 bln (EUR21.2 bln expected, EUR19.5 bln previous).

In Britain, the FTSE trades flat as miners lead. Randgold Resources is higher by 5.6% and Fresnillo trades up 4.5%. Meanwhile, financials are among the laggard with Royal Bank of Scotland and HSBC off 1.2% and 0.7%, respectively.

In France, the CAC is unchanged as financials outperform. BNP Paribas, Credit Agricole, and Societe Generale all hold gains of close to 0.6%.

In Germany, the DAX is -0.2% amid a choppy trade. Steel stocks are firm as Salzgitter trades up 2.6% and ThyssenKrupp is higher by 0.4%. Meanwhile, automakers are broadly lower with Volkswagen down 1.8% and Daimler off 0.4%.

08:34 am : [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: flat. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +2.50. Housing starts hit an annualized rate of 896,000 units during July, which was essentially in-line with the 895,000 Briefing.com consensus estimate. Prior month figures were revised upward to reflect an annualized rate of 846,000 starts (from 836,000). As for building permits, they increased to 943,000 from the prior month's upwardly revised rate of 918,000 (from 911,000). That was slightly above the pace of 934,000 that had been expected among economists polled by Briefing.com.

Separately, second quarter unit labor costs increased 1.4%, which was noticeably higher than the 0.3% decrease that had been anticipated by the Briefing.com consensus. During the same period, productivity increased 0.9%, according to the preliminary reading. The consensus expectation was for no change.

08:09 am : [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +0.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +3.00. The S&P futures have a positive tilt to them at this juncture, yet they are only pointing to a slightly higher start for the cash market, which will try to rebound following yesterday's drubbing. The big overnight item came out of China where the Shanghai Composite surged 6% in a span of two-and-a-half minutes. There was no news to account for the surge, which was eventually dismissed as a likely fat-finger trade. As it so happens, there was some residual chatter that the PBOC may be close to announcing a cut in the reserve requirement ratio, but alas, the entire gain was unwound and the Shanghai finished the session down 0.6%.

Reviewing overnight developments:

Asian markets were mostly lower. China's Shanghai Composite -0.6%; Japan's Nikkei -0.8%; Hong Kong's Hang Seng -0.1%; and India's Sensex down 4.0% (continued worries about measures to tighten capital outflows)
o Economic data was limited:
Hong Kong reported GDP growth of 0.8% quarter-over-quarter (0.5% expected, 0.2% prior)

European indices are mixed. Germany's DAX -0.2%; France's CAC 40 +0.2%; and the UK's FTSE is unchanged
Investors received several economic data points: Eurozone reported a Current Account surplus of EUR 16.9 bln (EUR19.0 bln forecast, EUR19.6 bln prior) and a trade surplus of EUR 14.9 bln (EUR15.3 bln expected, EUR14.6 bln previous). In addition, CPI came in at -0.5% month-over-month (-0.5% consensus, 0.1% prior) while the year-over-year reading increased 1.6% (1.6% expected, 1.6% previous). Lastly, core CPI rose 1.1% year-over-year (1.1% forecast, 1.2% prior).

In U.S. corporate news:

Applied Materials (AMAT 15.10, -0.22) is down 1.5% after missing the S&P Capital IQ consensus estimate by a penny and warning for its fiscal fourth quarter
Nordstrom (JWN 57.75, -1.58) is down 2.5% after beating by five cents, but cutting its FY14 guidance and second half same-store sales guidance
Jos. A Bank (JOSB 44.10) is expected to be weak after the retailer said its sees Q2 earnings below consensus estimates.

July housing starts, building permits, second quarter productivity, and labor costs will all be reported at 8:30 ET while the preliminary reading of the August Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey will cross the wires at 9:55 ET.

06:45 am : [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +2.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +3.00.

06:45 am : Nikkei...13650.11...-102.80...-0.80%. Hang Seng...22517.81...-21.40...-0.10%.

06:45 am : FTSE...6476.66...-6.70...-0.10%. DAX...8358.08...-18.20...-0.20%.

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney, Reuters and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader Image@ http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader

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