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 Post subject: July 16th Monday 2012 Emini TF ($TF_F) points +11.50
PostPosted: Mon Jul 16, 2012 11:09 pm 
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Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)

Attachment:
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click on the above image to view today's performance verification

Price Action Trade Performance for Today: +11.50 points or $1150 dollars in the Russell 2000 Emini TF ($TF_F) Futures.
Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures - 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE.
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures - 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup.

In addition, all trades were posted real-time in the free #FuturesTrades chat room. You can read today's #FuturesTrades trading chat room logs for details (e.g. time, price, contract size) about each one of my trades from entry to exit along with price action commentary as the trade traversed in comparison to what's shown in the above image...all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=106&t=1273.

To join our free chat room...log-in instructions located at a different forum @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=630

Also, posted below are direct links to information about my price action trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis).

Image WRB Analysis Tutorials @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=119&t=718.

Image Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our price action trade strategies with support prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Image Trading Plan Daily Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=163&t=1526

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Market Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED/ECB/IMF actions or any important global economic events that had an impact on today's price action. Simply, I'm a strong believer that many variables (key market events) causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility that results in swing points and strong continuation price actions. Thus, I pay attention to these key market events from one trade to the next trade to give me the market context for my technical analysis. Just as important, these summaries becomes my archives to allow me to understand what was happening on any given trading day in the past...something I can not get from my broker statements alone.

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Market Update

4:10 pm : Stocks finished the day with modest losses after disappointing data provoked selling. This morning's retail sales numbers fell short of estimates while business inventories registered a larger than expected build. The data was not all bad as Empire Manufacturing topped forecasts.

Citigroup (C 26.81, +0.16) gained 0.6% following its mixed quarterly results. The company announced earnings per share of $0.95 which topped the Capital IQ Consensus Estimate of $0.90, but revenues were light at $18.64 billion. Elsewhere on the earnings front, Woodward (WWD 34.54, -1.51 -2.13) guided third quarter revenue and earnings per share below consensus. The industrial company also lowered its full-year 2012 outlook. On the other hand, j2 Global (JCOM 28.47, +2.24) rallied 8.5% after it guided second quarter earnings per share and revenue above consensus.

The SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT 58.87, -0.35) lagged after June retail sales came in below expectations.

Gilead Sciences (GILD 51.94, +0.77) announced the FDA approval of Truvada, an oral drug for reducing the risk of acquiring HIV.

Shares of Par Pharmaceutical (PRX 50.00, +13.42) rose on news the company will be taken private at $50.00 per share in cash which is a 37% over Friday’s closing price. The transaction values the company at $1.9 billion. Today’s gains have the stock trading at levels last seen in April 2004.

Visa (V 127.15, +3.06) and Mastercard (MA 436.89, +7.29) both added close to 1.7% after settling merchant litigation. The settlement removes an overhang with the two companies on the hook for a $6.6 billion settlement. Visa’s share represents approximately $4.4 billion while Mastercard will pay roughly $2.2 billion.

The grain complex climbed as the worst drought since 1988 continues put upward pressure on prices. Teucrium Corn (CORN 49.85, +1.82) and iPath Dow Jones-UBS Gains Sub-Index (JJG 61.01, +2.48) once again saw outperformance with both holding gains of close to 4.0%. The two names are both up close to 40% over the past month.

Treasuries ended at post-data lows as traders moved out of the complex amid a rebound in risk assets. This morning’s buying dropped the 5-yr yield to a record low 0.577% while the 10-yr yield narrowly escaped a record low print as it hit 1.442% (1.440% record low). Slight flattening of the yield curve saw the 2-10-yr spread narrow to 123.5 bps.

Tuesday will see CPI and core CPI released at 8:30 am ET, net long-term TIC flows cross the wires at 9 am ET, industrial production and capacity utilization announced at 9:15 am ET, and the NAHB Housing Market Index at 10 am ET. Also of note is Chairman Bernanke’s semi-annual “Monetary Policy Report to the Congress” in front of the Senate Banking Committee at 10 am ET. DJ30 -49.88 NASDAQ -11.53 SP500 -3.14 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 879/1.40 bln/1603 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1359/601.8 mln/1670

3:35 pm : The dollar index extended losses in the afternoon session, which would typically boost all commodities. However, it only seemed to give crude oil strength, which rose as high as $88.55/barrel. After rallying over $2/barrel off its LoD, WTI crude oil finished the day over 1% higher at $88.42/barrel. After selling off in early morning action, Aug natural gas futures continued to trade in a tight consolidated pattern for the rest of today's session, just above its session low. At the end of the day, nat gas closed 2.4% lower at $2.80/MMBtu.

Precious metals, on the other hand, traded in a tight pattern following its morning rally. Aug gold ended its floor trading session 10 cents lower at $1591.90/oz, while Sept silver lost 4 cents to $27.32/oz.

Grains really showed solid gains on a continuation of hot/dry weather in the Midwest. Dec corn rose 5% to $7.77/bushel, Sept wheat rose 4.6% to $8.87/bu and Nov soybeans rose 2.5% to $15.91/bu.DJ30 -39.77 NASDAQ -10.12 SP500 -2.65 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 922/1168.8 mln/1524 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1377/419 mln/1620

3:00 pm : The Dollar Index saw early morning strength turn into losses following this morning's disappointing data as markets began to price in the possibility of more quantitative easing by the Fed. After hitting a session low near 1.2175 the euro has reversed almost 100 pips to a session high near 1.2275. The single currency narrowly escaped yet another two-year low, and with a move through 1.2300 will look to test the 1.2400/1.2435 level. Meanwhile, the British pound is witnessing a tremendous two-day rally that has the currency up close to 250 pips from Thursday's lows. Today's action has sterling testing its 50-day moving average near 1.5650. Elsewhere, safe haven flows continue to make their way into the Japanese yen with today's buying running the currency back through its 200-day moving average into the 78.80 per dollar area.DJ30 -30.43 NASDAQ -8.55 SP500 -1.90 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1383/1.05 bln/1584 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1391/367.6 mln/1578

2:30 pm : Stocks hold small losses with all of the major averages off close to 0.1%

Visa (V 126.94, +2.84) and Mastercard (MA 437.89, +8.29) are both up close to 2.0% this afternoon after settling merchant litigation. The settlement removes an overhang with the two companies being on the hook for a $6.6 billion settlement. Visa’s share represents approximately $4.4 billion while Mastercard will pay roughly $2.2 billion. The stocks have pulled back from their best levels of the session which in Visa’s case was an all-time high.DJ30 -21.16 NASDAQ -3.54 SP500 -0.37 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1464/959.0 mln/1499 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1464/337.1 mln/1498

2:00 pm : Markets linger in midday range.DJ30 -38.83 NASDAQ -5.47 SP500 -1.91 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 914/862 mln/1516 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1330/312 mln/1615

1:25 pm : Equity markets continue to trade with a modest loss. The retail sector -- Retail SPDR (XRT 58.80 -0.42) -- continues to be a laggard this session after June retail sales came in below expectations, falling 0.5% year-over-year.

Looking at corporate news, Woodward (WWD 33.92 -2.13) has pared most of its early losses after it guided Q3 revenue and EPS below consensus. The industrial company also lowered its FY12 outlook.

On the other hand, j2 Global (JCOM 28.68 +2.46) is up 9% after it guided Q2 EPS and revenue above consensus.

Before the top of the hour, Gilead (GILD 51.67 +0.50) announced FDA approval of Truvada, an oral drug for reducing the risk of acquiring HIV.DJ30 -57.14 NASDAQ -11.76 SP500 -4.25 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 824/771 mln/1587 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1208/279 mln/1741

1:00 pm : Stocks are slipping back towards their session lows with all three of the major averages down close to 0.4%. This morning’s economic data was mixed as retail sales missed estimates while Empire Manufacturing beat and business inventories grew at a larger than expected rate.

Citigroup (C 26.81, +0.16) is trading up 0.6%, but is now on its worst levels of the session after seeing a strong bid at the open following its mixed quarterly results. The company announced earnings per share of $0.95 which topped the Capital IQ Consensus Estimate of $0.90, but revenues were light at $18.64 billion.

Shares of Par Pharmaceutical (PRX 50.05, +13.47) are up 36.8% on news the company will be taken private at $50.00 per share in cash which is a 37% over Friday’s closing price. The transaction values the company at $1.9 billion. Today’s gains have the stock trading at levels last seen in April 2004.

The grain complex is higher today as the worst drought since 1988 continues put upward pressure on prices. Teucrium Corn (CORN 49.76, +1.73) and iPath Dow Jones-UBS Gains Sub-Index (JJG 60.50, +1.97) are once again seeing outperformance with both holding gains of close to 3.0%. The two names are up 39% and 36% respectively over the past month.

Treasuries are seeing solid gains with today’s flight to safety dropping the 5-yr yield to a record low 0.577%. Participants continue to track the benchmark 10-yr yield which holds just above its June 1 record low print of 1.440%.

Earnings reports will come fast and furious this week with Coca-Cola (KO 76.78, -0.50) and Goldman Sachs (GS 96.91, -0.52) crossing tomorrow; Bank of America (BAC 7.80, -0.02), American Express (AXP 58.39, +0.46), and Yum! Brands (YUM 64.41, -0.31) being released on Wednesday; Google (GOOG 574.89, -1.63), and Microsoft (MSFT 29.29, -0.10) announcing their results on Thursday; and General Electric (GE 19.50, -0.26) and Suntrust Banks (STI 24.89, +0.14) in focus on Friday.DJ30 -51.66 NASDAQ -11.87 SP500 -4.00 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 795/702.0 mln/1597 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1178/256.3 mln/1747

12:30 pm : Treasury yields hold near record lows as traders gobbled up maturities following this morning’s data. The 5-yr yield hit a record low 0.577% on early buying while the 10-yr yield slipped to 1.442% where it held just above its June 1 record low of 1.440%. Outperformance by the long bond has it trading up more than one point and trading at the 110 level where it is testing its June highs. A flatter yield curve has taken hold as the 2-10-yr spread trades 122.5 basis points.DJ30 -55.67 NASDAQ -10.00 SP500 -4.20 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 792/640.4 mln/1576 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1173/233.3 mln/1755

12:00 pm : The major indices are back in negative territory after seeing a brief move above their respective flat lines. The Dow continues to pace today’s decline, currently trading down 0.3%.

The grain complex is higher today as the worst drought since 1988 continues put upward pressure on prices. Teucrium Corn (CORN 49.53, +1.50) and iPath Dow Jones-UBS Gains Sub-Index (JJG 60.38, +1.85) are once again seeing outperformance with both holding gains of close to 3.0%. The two names are up 39% and 36% respectively over the past month.DJ30 -35.27 NASDAQ -4.70 SP500 -2.27 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 873/566.9 mln/1489 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1235/206.1 mln/1659

11:30 am : There will be a pick up in earnings reports this week with financials and large tech firms dominating the landscape. Citigroup (C 27.02, +0.37) posted results this morning, and the bank was able to outpace very low expectations. Investors looked favorably on the lower expenses, but the overall income statement continues to be weak as the current low rate environment remains difficult for banks to operate.

This week should go a long way in helping define the second quarter earnings performance and more importantly the market reaction to results. Upcoming reports which will include such notables as: Tuesday- Coca-Cola (KO 76.94, -0.34) and Goldman Sachs (GS 96.95, -0.48); Wednesday- Bank of America (BAC 7.86, +0.04), American Express (AXP 58.78, +0.85), and Yum! Brands (YUM 64.65, -0.07); Thursday- Google (GOOG 574.50, -2.02), and Microsoft (MSFT 29.45, +0.06); Friday- General Electric (GE 19.58, -0.19) and Suntrust Banks (STI 25.05, +0.30).DJ30 -21.65 NASDAQ -0.68 SP500 -0.71 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 943/500.4 mln/1388 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1300/182.7 mln/1590

11:00 am : The major averages have trimmed their losses after stocks found support near levels that coincided with Friday’s opening surge. All three indices trade down close to 0.2% as action holds on session highs.

Shares of Par Pharmaceutical (PRX 50.11, +13.53) are up 37% on news the company will be taken private at $50.00 per share in cash which is a 37% over Friday’s closing price. The transaction values the company at $1.9 billion. Today’s gains have the stock trading at levels last seen in April 2004. DJ30 -55.93 NASDAQ -9.39 SP500 -3.50 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 804/397.6 mln/1489 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1145/145.7 mln/1722

10:35 am : The dollar index is back at the unchanged line. A little earlier this morning, oil and precious metals recovered their losses, or most of them.

Aug crude oil fell as low as $86.40/barrel this morning and is now showing modest gains of 0.2% as it's sitting at $87.24/barrel. Aug natural gas meanwhile is getting beaten down and keeps hitting new session lows. Nat gas just hit a new LoD now at $2.80/MMBtu and is currently down 2.5%.

Precious metals have erased most of their losses this morning. Aug gold futures fell as low as $1577.20 and is now dwon $1.10 at $1590.90/oz. Silver futures rallied above the $27 mark earlier and is now -0.5% at $27.23/oz.DJ30 -58.43 NASDAQ -8.81 SP500 -4.09 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 4780/331.3 mln/1485 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1074/124 mln/1745

10:00 am : The major averages are holding near session lows following the latest business inventories data.

Business inventory data for May was just released. Inventories were up 0.3% for the month. That's above the 0.2% that had been expected.DJ30 -75.35 NASDAQ -18.30 SP500 -7.46 NASDAQ Vol 173.3 mln NYSE Vol 80.3 mln

09:45 am : Stocks opened slightly lower with all three of the major averages holding losses of close to 0.4%. Industrials, energy, and materials are the worst performing sectors while financials are seeing relative outperformance following the mixed results from Citigroup (C 27.04, +0.39). Business inventories are due out at the top of the hour.DJ30 -58.05 NASDAQ -12.74 SP500 -4.99 NASDAQ Vol 75.9 mln NYSE Vol 55.0 mln

09:16 am : [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -5.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -5.50. Equity futures point to small losses at the open following this morning’s mixed economic data that saw retail sales miss and Empire Manufacturing beat. Shares of Citigroup (C) will be in focus after the company announced a top line miss and bottom line beat. Meanwhile, Treasury yields are at, or near, record lows with a safety bid dropping the 5-yr to an all-time low print of 0.588%. Business inventories will be released at 10 am ET.

08:58 am : [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -5.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -8.00. Global markets are seeing a mixed session amid a lull of data and headlines. Peripheral markets in Asia paced the region’s advance amid more hope of easing by the People’s Bank of China. However, China’s Shanghai Composite vastly underperformed with a loss of 1.7% as sellers dropped the index to its lowest level since March 2009. Elsewhere, reports out of Europe indicate the European Central Bank is looking to impose losses on bondholders of Spanish banks which are most impacted by the crisis. The central bank has refused comment while the European Union has denied those reports.

The major Asian bourses (Nikkei CLOSED, Hang Seng +0.2%, Shanghai -1.7%) finished mixed following comments from Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao which suggested China’s economic recovery may take some more time. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng added 0.2% on light volume as casino stocks led the advance. Sands China rallied 2.4% after receiving approval for a three-year extension to complete one of its properties. Meanwhile, property giant Sun Hung Kai fell 1.0% after its co-chairmen were charged with corruption. On the mainland, China’s Shanghai Composite tumbled 1.7% as earnings worries weighed. Telecommunications equipment maker ZTE and electronics retailer Suning both plunged the daily limit, 10%, after giving downbeat net income forecasts. Automakers were also under pressure as FAW Car Co. shed 4.6% and SAIC Motor Corp. lost 2.3%. Elsewhere, Japan’s Nikkei was closed in observance of Marine Day.

The major European markets (FTSE -0.1%, CAC -0.5%, DAX -0.2%) hold small losses in afternoon trade. However, significant weakness can be seen in Spain’s IBEX which is off 1.7%. Britain’s FTSE is down 0.1%, and has been able to shrug off significant weakness in financials and miners. Barclays continues to reel following the Libor investigation with shares trading down 3.1%. Mining stocks are also weak with Randgold Resources off 1.9%. Elsewhere, France’s CAC is lower by 0.5% as financials and automakers are under pressure. French automaker Peugeot is down 3.0% while BNP Paribas leads financials lower with a 0.9% decline. Meanwhile, Germany’s DAX is holding a small loss of 0.2% with automakers and financials leading the way lower. BMW and Commerzbank are the worst performers in their respective sectors with both sporting losses of 1.4%.

08:32 am : [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -5.40. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -8.20. Retail sales declined during June by 0.5%, which is less than the 0.2% increase that had been broadly expected. Excluding autos, retail sales declined by 0.4%, which contrasts with the Briefing.com consensus call for a rise of 0.1%.

Separately, The Empire Manufacturing Survey for July registered a reading of 7.39, which is up from the prior month reading of 2.3. Economists polled by Briefing.com had expected, on average, that the Survey would rise to 3.8.

07:55 am : [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -3.40. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -7.00. U.S. equity futures are lower by 0.2% amid quiet pre-market trade, ahead of a busy week of earnings. European and Asian stocks were mixed overnight.

In Asia, China's market sunk 1.7% to multi-year lows on weak earnings and guidance, which offset continued speculation that additional stimulus will be enacted there. China's Premier seemed to leave that door open for that by commenting that current economic turbulence could linger for an extended period. Elsewhere in Asia, Hong Kong's stock market saw a slight 0.2% gain while Japan was closed for public holiday.

In Europe, markets are flat to slightly lower amid quiet trading there. Germany's DAX is down 0.2% while the UK's FTSE is flat.

In U.S. news, Visa (V 128.80, +4.71) and Mastercard (MA 447.00, +17.40) are higher by around 4% each after announcing the settlement of a lawsuit with merchants that has been going on for seven years... Human Genome Sciences (HGSI 14.01, +0.43) is higher by 3% on reports that GlaxoSmithKline (GSK 45.00, +0.53) could raise its bid for the company by $1 to $14.

Earnings season will dominate the headlines this week with over 200 companies scheduled to report Q2 results, including many Dow components. Although this morning is slow, Citigroup (C 20.02, -0.02) earnings are expected at 8:00 ET and will be of the greatest interest this morning.

There are several important pieces of economic data on the calendar this week too, starting with this morning's June retail sales data at 8:30 ET, which could influence how the broader market opens today. After two monthly declines, retail sales are expected to rise 0.2% in June. Empire Manufacturing data is also due at 8:30 ET.

06:27 am : [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -3.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -7.00.

06:27 am : Nikkei...Holiday......... Hang Seng...19121.34...+28.70...+0.20%.

06:27 am : FTSE...5658.48...-7.70...-0.10%. DAX...6546.87...-10.20...-0.20%.

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader, http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader and http://chart.ly/users/wrbtrader

http://www.thestrategylab.com
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