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 Post subject: June 28th Thursday 2012 Emini TF ($TF_F) points +4.60
PostPosted: Thu Jun 28, 2012 10:42 pm 
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Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)

Attachment:
062812-wrbtrader-Price-Action-Trading-PnL-Blotter-Profit-460.png
062812-wrbtrader-Price-Action-Trading-PnL-Blotter-Profit-460.png [ 75.98 KiB | Viewed 293 times ]

click on the above image to view today's performance verification

Price Action Trade Performance for Today: +4.60 points or $460 dollars in the Russell 2000 Emini TF ($TF_F) Futures.
Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures - 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE.
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures - 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup.

In addition, all trades were posted real-time in the free #FuturesTrades chat room. You can read today's #FuturesTrades trading chat room logs for details (e.g. time, price, contract size) about each one of my trades from entry to exit along with price action commentary as the trade traversed in comparison to what's shown in the above image...all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=105&t=1258.

To join our free chat room...log-in instructions located at a different forum @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=630

Also, posted below are direct links to information about my price action trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis).

Image WRB Analysis Tutorials @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=119&t=718.

Image Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our price action trade strategies with support prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Image Trading Plan Daily Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=162&t=1492

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Market Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED/ECB/IMF actions or any important global economic events that had an impact on today's price action. Simply, I'm a strong believer that many variables (key market events) causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility that results in swing points and strong continuation price actions. Thus, I pay attention to these key market events from one trade to the next trade to give me the market context for my technical analysis. Just as important, these summaries becomes my archives to allow me to understand what was happening on any given trading day in the past...something I can not get from my broker statements alone.

Stocks Close Lower, But Pare Earlier Losses

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click on the above image to view today's price action of key markets

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- Stocks closed in negative territory Thursday, after clawing back from much steeper losses in the last hour of trading.

A Bloomberg article stating that German Chancellor Angela Merkel cancelled a press conference at a European Union summit was enough to get investors speculating about a possible deal coming out of the summit.

Leaders at the two-day EU summit in Brussels are faced with the daunting task of coming up with a concrete solution to the continent's debt crisis.

While trading was largely driven by speculation and rumors, investors raced back into stocks, pushing the indexes, which had been down between 1% and 2%, up from earlier lows.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) finished the day down 25 points, or 0.2%. The S&P 500 (SPX) fell 3 points, or 0.2%. The Nasdaq (COMP) sank 26 points, or 0.9%.

The story that drove the market for most of the day was the U.S. Supreme Court decision upholding President Obama's health care reform law.

That decision had sparked a deep sell-off for U.S. stocks, as investors fear that health care costs could further cripple economic growth.

* Check out the Fear & Greed index

Investors are concerned that the so-called individual mandate requiring all Americans to purchase health insurance might act like an additional tax, giving consumers another reason to cut back on spending.

There are also worries that businesses will be forced to spend more on health care and in turn will spend less on bigger-ticket items that power the U.S. and global economies.

"Businesses now absolutely have to plan and bake in expenses associated with this," said Paul Powers, head of trading at Raymond James. "Before today, the thinking was that the law would be dismantled."

The Supreme Court ruling is also viewed as a big win for President Obama, and many on Wall Street see any win for Obama as a loss for the markets.

"It's no mystery that the market doesn't love Obama. This is a feather in his cap," said Powers. "Investors don't want to see him go into the election with the wind at his back."

Health care stocks were sharply divided following the ruling and wrapped up the day that way. Insurers Aetna (AET, Fortune 500) and WellPoint (WLP, Fortune 500) dropped between 3% and 6%. Hospitals, including Community Health Systems (CYH, Fortune 500) and HCA (HCA, Fortune 500) rose between 9% to 10%.

Fears of a global slowdown also sparked a steep sell-off in oil prices, which ended the day down more than 3%.

* Video - Don't Chase JPMorgan

Meanwhile, bank stocks remained under pressure after The New York Times reported that JPMorgan's (JPM, Fortune 500) trading losses at the firm could reach $9 billion. Shares of JPMorgan closed down 2.7%, while Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500), Morgan Stanley (MS, Fortune 500), and Citigroup (C, Fortune 500) dropped between 0.3% and 2.6% Thursday.

U.S. stocks closed with solid gains Wednesday, following strong reports on durable goods orders and housing.

World markets: European stocks closed down, but off session lows. Britain's FTSE 100 (UKX) shed 0.6%, while the DAX (DAX) in Germany dropped 1.3% and France's CAC 40 (CAC40) fell 0.4%.

Asian markets ended mixed. The Shanghai Composite (SHCOMP) lost 1% and the Hang Seng (HSI) in Hong Kong slid 0.8%, while Japan's Nikkei (N225) gained 1.7%.

Economy: On the domestic front, the Labor Department reported Thursday morning that weekly jobless claims dropped 6,000 to 386,000, slightly more than expected. And the final estimate of first-quarter U.S. GDP growth was in line with expectations at a 1.9% annual growth rate.

Companies: Shares of News Corp. (NWSA, Fortune 500) dropped after the company's board unanimously approved separating its entertainment side from publishing. Rupert Murdoch will chair both companies.

Family Dollar's (FDO, Fortune 500) stock sank after the operator of discount chains reported earnings and revenue that fell short of expectations, and reaffirmed its guidance.

Shares of Nike (NKE, Fortune 500) dropped more than 10% in after hours trading, after the sneaker company reported a profit that fell short of expectations and weakening demand for its products in China.

Shares of Research In Motion (RIMM) plunged 19% in after hours trading, after the Blackberry maker said it would cut 5,000 jobs. The company also reported a loss of 37 cents a share and a sharp drop in revenues.

Currencies and commodities: The dollar rose against the euro and British pound, but fell against the Japanese yen.

Oil for August delivery slid $2.52 cents to $77.69 a barrel.

Gold futures for August delivery fell $28 to $1,550.40 an ounce.

Bonds: The price on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury rose, pushing the yield down to 1.59% from 1.62% late Wednesday.

Image

Market Update

4:30 pm : The stock market was down more than 1% in late afternoon trade, but a strong rally into the close came amid chatter that Italy and Spain could get some additional short-term financial support and speculation that the cancellation of an EU Summit press conference could mean a major development.

Headlines related to the EU Summit also drove action ahead of the open as reports contradicted Germany's willingness to acquiesce to calls for the country to share debt liabilities. Caution amid the meeting prompted many participants to apply pressure.

Tech and Financials weighed heavily on the broad market for most of the day. Tech was down about 2% at its lowest level, but managed to nearly halve that. Financials overcame a loss of well in excess of 1% to settle the day down only 0.2%.

Energy outperformed for the third straight session. It had kept losses limited for most of the day, but bounded higher alongside the broad market in the session’s closing minutes. It settled with a 0.6% gain. Energy’s strength came despite oil’s retreat to a 3.2% loss at $77.73 per barrel.

News that the Supreme Court upheld President Obama's Health Care Law undercut Health Care stocks, along with the broad market, earlier in the day, but the sector was able to rebound so that it finished the day with a less severe loss of 0.3%.

Economic data featured a weekly initial jobless claims count total of 386,000, which is almost exactly what had been expected, on average, among economists polled by Briefing.com. The latest tally is also down slightly from the upwardly revised prior week count of 392,000. As for continuing claims, they declined to about 3.30 million from 3.31 million.

Separately, the third estimate of first quarter GDP showed growth of 1.9%, just as it had before. No revisions had been expected. However, the first quarter GDP Deflator was revised higher in the third estimate to reflect a 2.0% increase in the face of calls for it to continue to point to an increase of 1.7%.

Weakness among stocks had helped Treasuries trade with strength before rolling over as the stock market rallied. An auction of 7-year Notes drew a Bid-to-Cover of 2.64, Dollar Demand of $76.6 billion, and an Indirect Bidder participation rate of 42.0%. For comparison, the past auction attracted a Bid-to-Cover of 2.83, Dollar Demand of $82.1 billion, and an Indirect Bidder rate at 38.2%, while an average of the last six auctions results in a Bid-to-Cover of 2.81, Dollar Demand of $81.5 billion, and an Indirect Bidder rate of 39.9%.DJ30 -24.75 NASDAQ -25.83 NQ100 -1.1% R2K -0.1% SP400 +0.3% SP500 -2.81 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 957/1.75 bln/1538 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1701/897 mln/1300

3:30 pm : Crude oil tumbled deeper into the red as stocks suffered from weakened sentiment. The energy component fell off its session high of $80.00 per barrel set in morning action to set a session low of $77.20 per barrel before it settled for a 3.2% loss at $77.73 per barrel. Natural gas touched a session high of $2.83 per MMBtu, but quickly slipped following a bigger-than-expected inventory build of 57 bcf. A slight rally heading into the close helped reduce losses to 2.9% for the session as prices settled at $2.72 per MMBtu.

Precious metals were under selling pressure for their entire pit session. Gains by the greenback didn’t help their case. Although both gold and silver popped to respective session highs of $1574.30 per ounce and $27.00 per ounce following weaker-than-anticipated initial claims data, the metals quickly tumbled deeper into negative territory as the EU Summit proceeded. Gold settled 1.8% lower at $1550.30 per ounce, just above its session low of $1547.60 per ounce. Silver dropped to a session low of $26.10 per ounce just before it settled for a 2.7% loss at $26.28 per ounce. As an aside, analysts at Morgan Stanley lowered their precious metals price forecasts for 2012 through 2014.DJ30 -117.73 NASDAQ -47.24 SP500 -12.68 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 595/1.24 bln/1885 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1000/465 mln/1985

3:00 pm : Only an hour remains in today's trade, but stocks are starting to peel off of session lows. Financials and Tech plays continue to weigh on broad market action, though; the two sectors are down 1.5% and 1.8%, respectively.DJ30 -126.58 NASDAQ -47.93 SP500 -13.42 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 550/1.18 bln/1910 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 870/430 mln/2100

2:30 pm : All three major equity averages are now at session lows. There isn't much volume behind the slide, however.

With stocks weakening, participants are showing an increased interest in the dollar. That has the greenback at a session high with a gain of 0.3% against a basket of major foreign currencies. The dollar is now on pace for a 0.7% gain. DJ30 -176.61 NASDAQ -56.96 SP500 -18.50 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 550/1.06 bln/1890 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 840/390 mln/2110

2:00 pm : Both the S&P 500 and the Dow have drifted down to new afternoon lows, but neither is back to the depths that were set during the early going. However, weakness among large-cap tech issues has the Nasdaq at a new session low with a loss that is meaningfully steeper than that of either of its counterparts.DJ30 -150.80 NASDAQ -51.48 SP500 -16.02 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 540/985 mln/1885 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 815/360 mln/2135

1:30 pm : Treasuries continue to trade with strength amid a weak stock market and relatively underwhelming results from the latest auction of 7-year Notes. The offering drew a Bid-to-Cover of 2.64, Dollar Demand of $76.6 billion, and an Indirect Bidder participation rate of 42.0%. For comparison, the past auction attracted a Bid-to-Cover of 2.83, Dollar Demand of $82.1 billion, and an Indirect Bidder rate at 38.2%, while an average of the last six auctions results in a Bid-to-Cover of 2.81, Dollar Demand of $81.5 billion, and an Indirect Bidder rate of 39.9%.DJ30 -135.21 NASDAQ -45.75 SP500 -14.13 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 540/890 mln/1865 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 880/330 mln/2055

1:00 pm : Steady pressure has left the broad market to spend the past hour drifting along with a sizable loss. Attention remains on Europe as the EU Summit gets underway.

Market participants opted to sell stocks in the early going. Their efforts intensified in response to news that the Supreme Court has upheld President Obama's Health Care Law. The news sent the Health Care sector to a relatively steep loss, but it has since recovered so that it is now down about 1.0%.

Pressure remains pronounced among Tech and Financials, both of which are down about 1.5%. JPMorgan Chase (JPM 35.29, -1.50) has been a heavy drag amid reports that certain trading positions may be worse than the company had previously indicated. Among Tech issues, large-cap names like Google (GOOG 559.75, -9.55) have been a heavy drag.

Energy stocks have managed to limit losses to about half of what the broad market has suffered. The sector's relative strength comes after it already outperformed in each of the two previous trading days.

Economic data have been less of a factor in today's trade, due to the unsurprising nature of the latest weekly initial jobless claims tally and the third estimate of first quarter GDP.

Earlier this morning market participants received reports regarding Germany's willingness to acquiesce to calls for the country to share debt liabilities, but that was quickly contradicted. With the EU Summit at hand, the potential for headline-driven trade will likely remain high. DJ30 -125.03 NASDAQ -42.80 SP500 -13.09 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 535/820 mln/1860 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 820/300 mln/2130

12:30 pm : Stocks have entered into a sideways drift that has left the broad market battling a loss of about 1%. News flow has slowed, but the top of the hour brings results from the latest offering of 7-year Treasury Notes. Treasuries are up solidly ahead of that announcement.DJ30 -135.36 NASDAQ -42.87 SP500 -14.15 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 560/720 mln/1815 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 870/275 mln/2030

12:00 pm : The stock market's attempt to cut its loss has encountered some resistance. That has left it to continue trading with a loss of roughly 1%.

Such sizable losses by the broad market have stoked volatility, such that the Volatility Index is up almost 7% to a reading of almost 21. The 10-day high for the VIX stands closer to 23.

Despite weakness among stocks and heightened volatility, gold has failed to attract safety seekers. Instead, the precious metal is down 1.4% to $1556 per ounce. DJ30 -124.58 NASDAQ -38.68 SP500 -12.65 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 550/655 mln/1805 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 830/255 mln/2065

11:30 am : Stocks are trying to trim losses, but the major equity averages continue to trade with losses on the order of 1% or more.

With stocks in such weak shape market participants have taken to purchasing Treasuries. Demand for the 10-year has the yield on the benchmark Note back below 1.60%. Treasuries will remain in focus with the release of results from an offering of 7-year Notes at 1:00 PM ET. DJ30 -135.06 NASDAQ -38.77 SP500 -13.27 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 445/530 mln/1865 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 620/210 mln/2245

11:00 am : Stocks took a dive lower in response to news that the Supreme Court has voted to uphold the constitutionality of President Obama's Health Care Law. The news has weighed heavily on the Health Care sector, which is now at a session low with a 1.4% loss. Only Tech, down 1.6%, is in worse shape.DJ30 -158.07 NASDAQ -45.80 SP500 -16.70 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 465/405 mln/1785 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 595/165 mln/2230

10:35 am : Oil prices opened pit trade with a modest gain, but have since dropped to $79.10 per barrel for a 1.4% loss. Natural gas prices are now down to $2.72 per MMBtu for a 3.1% loss following a bigger-than-expected inventory build of 57 bcf.

Precious metals prices have also come under increased pressure. As such, gold is now down 1.4% to $1556 per ounce, while silver wrestles with a 2.3% loss at $26.32 per ounce. DJ30 -124.58 NASDAQ -35.91 SP500 -12.62 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 600/290 mln/1610 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 785/115 mln/1980

10:00 am : The major equity averages remain in the red with sizable losses. There really isn't any meaningful form of positive leadership for the broad market to rally around, but Energy plays continue to show resilience as they hold their ground near the neutral line. The sector's relative strength comes despite a pullback in oil prices to $79.75 per barrel, which makes for a 0.6% loss.DJ30 -92.63 NASDAQ -21.34 SP500 -7.75 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 635/135 mln/1475 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 765/65 mln/1920

09:45 am : Stocks are trying to lift off of their opening lows, but weakness remains relatively widespread. Losses are especially pronounced among Tech and Financial plays -- both sectors are down 1% in the early going.

There isn't a single sector in positive territory, but Energy stocks have managed to limit losses so that the sector is down only 0.3%, which makes it the best performing sector of the session. Energy plays also outperformed in each of the past two trading days. DJ30 -93.81 NASDAQ -23.20 SP500 -8.29 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec NA/NA/NA NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec NA/NA/NA

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -9.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -18.50. Stock futures remain under pressure with the approach of the open. The cautious tone comes as market participants reflect on two straight days of gains and the potential for headline risk from the EU summit. Pertaining to the latter theme, market participants have already read conflicting reports regarding Germany's willingness to acquiesce to calls for shared debt liabilities aimed at helping shore up financial conditions in the region. Data hasn't done anything to inspire buying interest -- weekly initial jobless claims were on par with expectations and the third estimate of first quarter GDP went unchanged. Corporate news is lacking, although some attention has been given to a report that suggests certain trading positions of JPMorgan Chase (JPM 35.46, -1.32) may be worse than the company has indicated. Note: ticker quote reflects premarket price.

09:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -9.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -17.00. Generally mixed action among commodities has the CRB Index at the flat line. Among its most commonly quoted constituents, crude oil prices have pulled back in the past couple of minutes after attempting to extend their prior session push higher; the energy component was last quoted at $80.35 per barrel, which makes for a gain of just 0.2%. Natural gas prices are up 0.3% to $2.82 per MMBtu ahead of their weekly inventory report at 10:30 AM ET. Precious metals continue to grapple with sellers, resulting in modest losses for both silver and gold. Specifically, silver prices are presently off by 0.4% at $26.82 per ounce, while gold trades down 0.7% to $1568 per ounce.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -7.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -13.50. Stock futures remain under pressure following a couple of doses of domestic economic data.

The latest weekly initial jobless claims count totaled 386,000, which is almost exactly what had been expected, on average, among economists polled by Briefing.com. The latest tally is also down slightly from the upwardly revised prior week count of 392,000. As for continuing claims, they declined to about 3.30 million from 3.31 million.

Separately, the third estimate of first quarter GDP showed growth of 1.9%, just as it had before. No revisions had been expected. However, the first quarter GDP Deflator was revised higher in the third estimate to reflect a 2.0% increase in the face of calls for it to continue to point to an increase of 1.7%.

08:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -8.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -14.50. Stock futures point to a lower open after coming under pressure in response to a report that contradicted earlier headlines regarding efforts by Germany to acquiesce to shared debt liabilities in the region. The euro is also down; it was last quoted with a 0.3% loss against the greenback. That slip puts the currency back near its lowest levels of the past couple of weeks. Given the continued concerns and the start of a two-day EU summit, Europe will remain in close focus among market participants. Meanwhile, corporate news flow is currently lacking, but both the latest weekly initial jobless claims tally and the final estimate of first quarter GDP are due at the bottom of the hour.

06:28 am : [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -7.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -12.00.

06:28 am : Nikkei...8874.11...+143.60...+1.70%. Hang Seng...19025.27...-151.70...-0.80%.

06:28 am : FTSE...5468.95...-55.00...-1.00%. DAX...6115.64...-113.40...-1.80%.

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader, http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader and http://chart.ly/users/wrbtrader

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