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 Post subject: June 22nd Friday 2012 Emini TF ($TF_F) points -14.30
PostPosted: Fri Jun 22, 2012 9:50 pm 
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Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)

Attachment:
062212-wrbtrader-Price-Action-Trading-PnL-Blotter-Loss-1430.png
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click on the above image to view today's performance verification

Price Action Trade Performance for Today: -14.30 points or ($1430) dollars in the Russell 2000 Emini TF ($TF_F) Futures.
Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures - 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE.
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures - 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup.

In addition, all trades were posted real-time in the free #FuturesTrades chat room. You can read today's #FuturesTrades trading chat room logs for details (e.g. time, price, contract size) about each one of my trades from entry to exit along with price action commentary as the trade traversed in comparison to what's shown in the above image...all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=105&t=1254.

To join our free chat room...log-in instructions located at a different forum @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=630

Also, posted below are direct links to information about my price action trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis).

Image WRB Analysis Tutorials @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=119&t=718.

Image Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our price action trade strategies with support prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Image Trading Plan Daily Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=162&t=1492

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Market Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED/ECB/IMF actions or any important global economic events that had an impact on today's price action. Simply, I'm a strong believer that many variables (key market events) causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility that results in swing points and strong continuation price actions. Thus, I pay attention to these key market events from one trade to the next trade to give me the market context for my technical analysis. Just as important, these summaries becomes my archives to allow me to understand what was happening on any given trading day in the past...something I can not get from my broker statements alone.

U.S. Stocks In Recovery Mode

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NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- U.S. stocks bounced back Friday, one day after fears of slow growth and bank downgrades sent them spiraling downward.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) rose 67 points, or 0.5%, to end at 12,641. The S&P 500 (SPX) added 10 points, or 0.7%, to 1,335. The Nasdaq (COMP) edged up by 33 points, or 1.2%, to close at 2,892.

The Dow and S&P 500 both ended the week lower, while the Nasdaq rose for a third straight week. The Dow lost 1%, the S&P 500 eased 0.6% for the week. The Nasdaq advanced 0.7% over the last five trading days.

Moody's downgraded 15 global banks after the market closed Thursday. The move included five major U.S. banks -- Citigroup (C, Fortune 500), Morgan Stanley (MS, Fortune 500), Goldman Sachs (GS, Fortune 500), Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500) and JPMorgan Chase (JPM, Fortune 500).

"Investors were holding their breath with these downgrades looming," said Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at Harris Private Bank. "But once the downgrades came out, they rallied through the news."

Despite Friday's bounce, Ablin said the market lacks a strong catalyst to move higher or lower. "We're moving from headline to headline," he said.

Investors continue to monitor events in Europe ahead of a key meeting of European Union leaders next week.

* Top euro leaders urge growth

At a meeting in Rome, the leaders of Germany, France, Italy and Spain said they agreed on a set of growth-enhancing policies equal to about €125 billion, or 1% of eurozone gross domestic product.

In Spain, an independent audit released on Thursday found that Spanish banks need up to €62 billion to restore stability to the country's financial sector.

Spain's Economy Minister Luis de Guindos said Friday that Spain will formally request the bank aid on Monday.

Meanwhile, Germany, the healthiest and largest eurozone economy, may start to draw some attention. The German Ifo business confidence index fell to its lowest level in more than two years, which was worse than expected.

The news comes one day after a purchasing managers index showed conditions deteriorating for the second month, with output declining at the fastest rate in three years.

* Check out our Fear & Greed Index

CNNMoney's Fear & Greed index still showed fear but was moving closer to extreme fear compared to Monday.

U.S. stocks closed sharply down on Thursday, as investors fretted over slowing global growth and the impending Moody's downgrades. The Dow suffered its second worst day of the year.

World markets: European stocks closed lower. Britain's FTSE 100 (UKX) fell 0.9% and the DAX (DAX) sank 1.3%, while France's CAC 40 (CAC40) decreased by 0.7%.

Most of the major European banks that were downgraded, including Deutsche Bank (DB), Barclays (BCS) and BNP Paribas (BNPQY), rebounded Friday.

* Bookies give Greece long odds

Asian markets ended in the red. The Hang Seng (HSI) in Hong Kong dropped 1.4%, and Japan's Nikkei (N225) edged lower 0.3%. The Shanghai Composite (SHCOMP) was closed for a holiday.

Economy: There are no major economic reports scheduled for Friday.

Companies: Shares of transportation company Ryder Systems (R, Fortune 500) slid 13% after the company lowered its earnings outlook for the second quarter and fiscal year 2012, citing declining demand for its commercial rental vehicles.

Shares of Darden Restaurants (DRI, Fortune 500) fell after the operator of Red Lobster and Olive Garden warned that earnings and revenue in the current fiscal year will fall short of estimates.

Cruise line operator Carnival (CCL) reported earnings that topped estimates and issued an upbeat outlook for the year.

Shares of Facebook (FB) rallied 3.8% to end the day at $33.05 after languishing in its post-IPO funk for several weeks.

Currencies and commodities: The dollar fell versus the euro and the British pound, but edged higher against the Japanese yen.

Oil for August delivery rose $1.56 cents to end at $79.76 a barrel.

Gold futures for August delivery rose $1.40 to end at $1,566.90 an ounce.

Bonds: The price on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury fell slightly, pushing the yield up to 1.67% from 1.62% late Thursday.

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Market Update

4:30 pm : The stock market ended the week 0.6% below where it began. That is really the result of a dramatic one-day drop, though.

Broad market trade began the week in a relatively choppy, lackluster manner. Participants generally shrugged off news that early election polls in Greece pointed to a preference for the country's pro-austerity party. The apparent indifference came as precarious conditions in Spain took the yield on the country’s 10-year Note back above 7%.

Stocks advanced 1% on Tuesday for their strongest performance of the week as market participants prepared for announcements from the Fed scheduled for the following day. The effort gave the stock market its first finish above its 50-day moving average in more than a month.

Data featured a housing starts number for May that hit an annualized rate of 708,000, which is a little light relative to the rate of 719,000 that had been generally expected. However, the prior month figures were revised upward to reflect an annual rate of 744,000 housing starts.

Building permits climbed from the prior month's upwardly revised rate of 723,000 to 780,000 for May to best the pace of 725,000 that had been expected, on average, among economists polled by Briefing.com.

Although most of the market’s focus was on forthcoming Fed commentary, JPMorgan Chase (JPM 35.99, +0.48) CEO Jamie Dimon provided participants with some theatre by returning to Capitol Hill for a testimony to the House Financial Services Committee. Nothing was stated that deviated from comments made to the Senate Banking Committee last week. FedEx (FDX 90.54, -0.09) posted an upside earnings surprise, but issued downside guidance, while Oracle (ORCL 28.00, +0.19) had an in-line outlook on better-than-expected earnings.

On Wednesday it was all about the Fed. The latest FOMC Directive moved to extend "Operation Twist" through the end of the year in an effort to extend the average maturity of the Fed's securities holdings. Fed Chairman Bernanke stated that additional asset purchases would be considered by the Fed if necessary, but many participants had hoped for more from the Fed this time around, especially in light of the Fed’s lackluster forecast for 2012.

The Fed now expects real GDP growth for 2012 to range from 1.9% to 2.4%, down from the range of 2.4% to 2.9% that was previously projected. Unemployment for 2012 is now expected to range from 8.0% to 8.2%, which is up from the previously forecasted range of 7.8% to 8.0%.

Corporate news was overshadowed, though it featured a disappointing forecast from Procter & Gamble (PG 59.83, +0.08) and word that JPMorgan Chase exited some 65-70% of its losing position. Discover Financial (DFS 33.61, +0.16) served up in-line earnings and guidance that helped earn it favorable reviews from a few analysts.

Perhaps it was a delayed response to the Fed’s Directive and forecast, or maybe it was disappointing economic data, but stocks fell more than 2% on Thursday for their worst single-session slump since December.

Prior to the open market participants learned that China’s PMI manufacturing report pointed to an eighth consecutive month of contraction. Germany, Europe’s most diverse and robust economy, also posted a disappointing number that pointed to tighter activity. Domestic data featured a Flash PMI Manufacturing of 52.9 – the worst reading in 11 months. The Philadelphia Fed Survey fell unexpectedly to -16.6 for June. It was its worst reading since August 2011.

Existing home sales set an annualized rate of 4.55 million units during May, as had been generally expected, but the pace was stronger in the prior for month when it registered a rate of 4.62 million units. Leading Indicators for May increased by 0.3%, which is better than the flat reading that had been widely forecasted to follow the 0.1% decline in the prior month.

On Friday stocks fought to recover some of their prior session losses. The effort concluded with the three major equity averages at or near session highs with varied gains. The Nasdaq outperformed its counterparts with help from some large-cap Tech players. Blue chips fared less well, hampering the Dow.

Headlines were relatively light, but news that analysts at Moody’s downgraded credit ratings several banks created some buzz. Despite the action, shares of banks and diversified financial services players attracted buyers, such that the KBW Bank Index climbed in excess of 1%.

All 10 major sectors settled in positive territory. Utilities were at the bottom end of things as market participants showed little interest for the defensive-oriented sector. It advanced just 0.1%.

Small-cap stocks scored particularly strong gains, as measured by the Russell 2000, which settled higher by about 1.4%. The annual reconstitution of the Russell Indices took place today.

Volatility cooled considerably amid the generally improved tone. In fact, the Volatility Index fell about 10% after it had spiraled higher in the prior session. DJ30 +67.21 NASDAQ +33.33 NQ100 +1.1% R2K +1.4% SP400 +0.6% SP500 +9.51 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1772/2.26/740 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2073/1.48 bln/939

3:30 pm : Crude oil trended higher in today’s pit trade and touched a session high of $80.37 per barrel. The energy component pulled-back slightly as it headed into the close, but managed to finish with a gain of about 2% at $79.73 per barrel following two days of losses. Despite today’s strength, crude suffered a weekly loss of 5.1%. Weakness in previous sessions came on weaker-than-expected inventory data and a series of economic reports that included weak PMI manufacturing numbers from abroad and a disappointing Philadelphia Fed Survey. On the other hand, natural gas continued yesterday’s advance, climbing to a floor session high of $2.66 per MMBtu. Although it lost some steam near the close and settled at $2.63 per MMBtu, today’s gain led natural gas to finish the week 6.5% higher.

Gold was on a decline in morning pit action, falling to a session low of $1558.60 per ounce. However, the yellow metal found buying support and was able to climb out of negative territory in afternoon floor trade. Gold settled in the black for the first time this week, but the small gain was not nearly enough to offset losses suffered in previous sessions that followed the release of the FOMC Directive that announced the extension of "Operation Twist." In the end, gold finished the week 3.8% lower at $1566.80 per ounce. Meanwhile, silver extended yesterday's losses, falling to a new 2012 low of $26.51 per ounce. It inched slightly higher for the remainder of pit trade, but eventually settled at $26.68 per ounce, or 7.2% lower than last week's closing price.DJ30 +67.17 NASDAQ +26.59 SP500 +8.62 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1775/1.10 bln/680 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2070/420 mln/925

3:00 pm : The S&P 500 has joined the Nasdaq at a session high, but the Dow has yet to push past the heights that it set in the early going. It has been hampered by weakness in Walt Disney (DIS 47.13, -0.28), Wal-Mart (WMT 67.44, -0.26), and Kraft (KFT 38.80, -0.07). Fellow blue chips MMM (3M 86.75, +0.02), IBM (IBM 193.51, +0.12), and Caterpillar (CAT 85.05, +0.07) are only muddling along.DJ30 +78.15 NASDAQ +28.62 SP500 +9.74 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1735/985 mln/720 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1950/375 mln/1010

2:30 pm : Stocks remain at afternoon highs with only 90 minutes remaining in today's trade. The effort to trade higher has helped trim the stock market's weekly loss to about 0.7%, which would come after the stock market scored two straight strong weekly gains of 1.3% and 3.7%, chronologically.DJ30 +64.94 NASDAQ +23.68 SP500 +7.63 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1725/935 mln/720 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1935/355 mln/1020

2:00 pm : Stocks have pushed higher in recent trade. The effort has the Nasdaq at a new session high, but neither the Dow nor the S&P 500 has moved above the heights that they set in the early going. The Nasdaq's relative strength comes as shares of large-cap Tech stocks like Cisco (CSCO 17.10, +0.18) and Microsoft (MSFT 30.47, +0.33) push up to gains greater than 1%.DJ30 +67.67 NASDAQ +22.70 SP500 +7.49 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1715/845 mln/715 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1915/325 mln/1025

1:30 pm : The Volatility Index spiked about 15% during the prior session as market participants aggressively sold stocks en masse. A calmer, improved tone of trade toady has cut down the euphemistically dubbed "Fear Gauge" for a loss of almost 7%. Earlier this week the VIX was at a monthly low.DJ30 +48.74 NASDAQ +17.73 SP500 +5.21 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1680/765 mln/730 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1815/300 mln/1095

1:00 pm : The major equity averages have spent the entire session chopping along with varied gains as stocks attempt to recover from the prior session's sell-off, which was the worst one-day percentage drop for the S&P 500 since December.

Financials have had their gains halved, but the sector is still in solid shape with a gain of about 0.5%. Its strength persists after a series of downgrades were put on banks by analysts at Moody's. After falling more than 2% yesterday the Financial sector is on track for a weekly loss of about 0.4%.

Energy stocks collectively dropped 4.0% yesterday, but have had some difficulty sustaining a rebound today. In fact, the sector slipped to a slight loss in late morning trade, but it has since worked its way up to a 0.3% gain. Oil has made a much more impressive recovery; after falling to a 2012 low yesterday the energy component is up 2.0% to $79.75 per barrel.

The dollar has generally stayed near the neutral line after it rallied about 1% during the prior session. It is currently unchanged against a collection of competing currencies.

There is no domestic economic data out today, but a point of interest for market participants is the reconstitution of the Russell Indices. DJ30 +44.92 NASDAQ +18.47 SP500 +4.50 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1715/715 mln/690 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1845/280 mln/1060

12:30 pm : Despite a generally positive tone to trade today, shares of Carnival Corp (CCL 33.63, -0.95) are down markedly in the wake of the company's quarterly report. The company actually announced better-than-expected earnings and upside guidance. Darden Restaurants (DRI 49.70, -0.69) also announced quarterly results, which featured in-line earnings and a disappointing forecast. There were no other earnings reports of consequence or from widely-held companies today.DJ30 +49.35 NASDAQ +16.04 SP500 +4.48 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1685/625 mln/675 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1810/250 mln/1070

12:00 pm : Stocks continue to chop along with varied gains, resulting in modest gains for the major equity averages.

Worth noting is that today brings the reconstitution of the Russell Index. Such an event often brings heavy trading volume late in the session, and the potential for increased volatility. Share volume and volatility in the broader market are quite moderate at the moment. DJ30 +61.01 NASDAQ +17.39 SP500 +5.33 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1715/565 mln/625 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1880/225 mln/990

11:30 am : Stocks continue to chop along with varied gains. Meanwhile, the dollar has moved out of negative territory to trade at a session high with a 0.2% gain against a basket of major currencies. The dollar is now up 1.0% for the week; such a gain not only snaps two straight weekly losses for the greenback, but stands as its best weekly performance since a 1.4% advance towards the end of May.DJ30 +52.91 NASDAQ +15.86 SP500 +4.27 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1705/435 mln/575 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1865/180 mln/960

11:00 am : The major equity averages remain in positive territory with generally modest gains, despit a recent slide off of morning highs. Financials remain a primary source of support; they're up 0.8% as a group.

Energy stocks looked like they were attempting to rebound from their prior session plunge, which resulted in a 4.0% loss for the sector, but it has been unable to regain support. That has left the sector to slip into negative territory for a narrow loss. However, oil prices are up 1.5% to $79.35 per barrel after setting a 2012 intraday low during pit trade in the prior session. DJ30 +56.69 NASDAQ +13.42 SP500 +4.47 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1605/350 mln/625 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1815/145 mln/975

10:30 am : Stocks are handing back some of their early gains, but energy prices are up with solid gains. Specifically, crude oil futures prices have the energy component up 0.8% to $78.80 per barrel. Natural gas prices are presently up 2.2% to $2.64 per MMBtu after trading with a loss this morning.

Precious metals have been unable to rebound from their prior session slump. That has left gold prices to slip to $1564 per ounce for a 0.1% loss. Meanwhile, silver prices are down 0.6% to $26.68 per ounce, but still above overnight lows slightly beneath $26.60 per ounce. DJ30 +44.73 NASDAQ +12.47 SP500 +3.70 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1665/245 mln/525 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2020/110 mln/745

10:00 am : Stocks have added to their early gains, but the effort has a long way to go before the prior session's sell-off can be fully offset -- it was the worst one-day percentage drop for the S&P 500 since December.

With stocks showing strength interest in the safety of Treasuries has turned negative. That has the benchmark 10-year Note down by about a half of a point, and its yield back above 1.65% by a couple of basis points.

The dollar has had a rather quiet morning. It is currently down less than 0.1% against a basket of major foreign currencies. Its calm comes after it scored a gain of about 1% yesterday. DJ30 +85.64 NASDAQ +19.49 SP500 +8.06 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1390/110 mln/675 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1795/65 mln/830

09:45 am : Stocks are up with varied gains in the early going. Financials are offering leadership as they run ahead to a collective gain of about 0.7%, which makes them the best performing sector this morning. Consumer Discretionary plays and Industrial issues are at the other end of things, mired near the neutral line.DJ30 +60.17 NASDAQ +6.93 SP500 +4.55 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec NA/NA/NA NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec NA/NA/NA

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +5.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +9.50. Stock futures have picked up with the approach of the open so that a positive start to the final session of the week is now expected, despite a series of bank downgrades by analysts at Moody's and weakness abroad. Still, the bid is expected to make only a modest improvement in the position of the S&P 500 for the week since yesterday's sell-off has left the broad market measure positioned for a weekly loss in excess of 1%, which would completely offset gains achieved in the prior week.

09:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +4.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +9.50. Crude oil was hit hard in the prior session, sliding to a new intraday low for 2012, but the energy component has thus far managed only a modest rebound -- the energy component was last quoted with a 0.5% gain at $78.60 per barrel. Nautral gas avoided a sell-off among commodities in the prior session, but today prices are down 0.9% to $2.56 per MMBtu. Following a slump yesterda precious metals are mixed with gold prices up 0.2% to $1569 per ounce and silver prices down 0.1% to $26.81 per ounce. In the backdrop, the dollar is unchanged against a collection of competing currencies in what has been a rather choppy morning.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +2.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +5.50. Europe's bourses remain in the red; sentiment has been weakened in the wake of the sell-off that slammed US stocks in the prior session. Germany's DAX is currently down 0.9%. Infineon Tech, BASF, and Bayer AG have been heavy drags, but Deutsche Lufthansa and Deutsche Telekom are trading higher. Britain's FTSE is presently off by 0.9%. Fresnillo Plc, Marks & Spencer Group, and BHP Billiton (BHP 62.99, -0.15) have weighed heavily. BT Group (BT 31.11, +0.00) and Lloyds Group (LYG 1.88, +0.00) have attracted support in the face of broad market weakness. France's CAC is currently off by 0.7%. Technip, EADS, LVMH Hennessy and Renault are among its poorest performers. France Telecom, Credit Agricole, and Societe Generale are displaying strength, though.

Japan's Nikkei shed only 0.3% in its final session of the week. Chiyoda Corp, Suzuki Motor, Mitsui Mining, and Sumitomo Corp were among the poorest performers, but Sony Corp (SNE 13.55, +0.00), Tokyo Electric Power, and Sharp Corp displayed strength. Hong Kong's Hang Seng slid to a 1.4% loss. Evergrande Real Estate, Boshiwa International Holding, CNOOC (CEO 186.50, +0.00), and Dragonite Holdings all weighed heavily on trade. Banking plays like Industrial & Commercial Bank of China and China Construction Bank also traded with weakness. Mainland China's Shanghai Composite was closed for holiday observance.

Note: ticker quotes reflect US premarket prices.

08:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +2.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +5.00. An aggressive, broad-based sell-off in the prior session resulted in the stock market's worst one-day percentage drop since December. Although the negative sentiment associated with such a move dragged down Asia's major averages in overnight action and continues to keep pressure on Europe's major bourses, domestic stock futures have firmed up so that they trade narrowly above fair value. The relatively neutral tone to premarket trade comes despite a series of downgrades for domestic banks by analysts at Moody's.

Meanwhile, Darden Restaurants (DRI 49.15, -2.46) reported earnings that matched what Wall Street had expected and also announced a 16% increase in its quarterly dividend to $0.50 per share, but the company's disappointing guidance has weighed on its shares ahead of the open. Carnival (CCL 34.56, -0.02) has yet to release its latest quarterly report. Note: ticker quotes reflect premarket prices. There are no domestic economic reports of consequence scheduled for today.

06:30 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +4.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +11.00.

06:29 am : Nikkei...8798.35...-25.70...-0.30%. Hang Seng...18995.13...-269.90...-1.40%.

06:29 am : FTSE...5521.27...-45.10...-0.80%. DAX...6299.49...-43.60...-0.70%.

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader, http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader and http://chart.ly/users/wrbtrader

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